STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 16

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 16, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 15, 2009

Dow... 10,452.00 -49.05 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq... 2,201.05 -11.05 (-0.50%)
S&P 500... 1,107.93 -6.18 (-0.55%)
Gold future... 1,123 -1.10 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.58 +0.04 (+1.21%)
30-Year Bond 4.52 +0.04 (+0.87%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

To Our (Dis)Credit
Part 1
BY RICHARD A. ECKERT

Prologue

Last month, in Stimulus Junkies? (Market Observation, 11/17/2009 and 11/24/2009), I documented that the Fed has, more or less, applied stimulus continuously over the last 20 – 25 years. And that any time stimulus was withdrawn, asset deflation (stock prices in 2000-2002 and home prices over the last two years) and recession have followed. Furthermore, each recession seemed to require ever more powerful and numerous stimuli kept in place for ever longer periods of time, but to ever less efficacious effect in restoring growth and creating new jobs during the subsequent expansions. That piece concludes with:

“When I think about it, the U.S. economy really has taken on the pathology of drug dependence. The drug, monetary stimuli in the form of increased access to increasingly cheaper credit, provides a high, in the form of soaring stock or home prices. But it exacts a heavy toll of the economic body—and soul for that matter! I will examine the reasons for this in some detail in my next contribution to Market Observation, but provide a preview below. Over time, the user—the addict—builds a greater and greater tolerance to the drug and it requires greater quantities to achieve the same high. But the greater quantities exact an even greater toll of the economic body. And each time the user has to go without, the withdrawal symptoms are more painful. There are only two exit strategies from this pathology: cold turkey or, the user, his/her body debilitated by chronic abuse of the drug, but still requiring larger quantities to reach the same state of narcosis, eventually overdoses.”

As promised in the paragraph above, this month’s contribution to Market Observation will attempt to explain how credit, whether used to temporarily stimulate an economy or finance the purchase of a “hi-def” TV, can exact a heavy toll on the economic body and soul.
.....

My definition of capital goods is expansive: anything enabling the production of other capital—and consumption—goods and generates income for the producer(s). Producers in our paradigm are the providers of capital and labor. The income so generated is the source of both current consumption and saving. Saving becomes the foundation of future investment in capital goods. To the extent the providers of capital and labor favor saving over consumption, more of their income is available for future investment, which, in turn, provides for the creation of more capital goods and, therefore, more income available for future consumption, saving and investment. The repeated process of producing, saving and investing ever larger quantities of resources is how economies grow. Therefore, anything facilitating or effectuating that process is, in my estimation, a capital good.
.....

Although government has recently expanded both the national (as well as state and local) debt and its role in the economy, the latter reflects, in large part, sharp increases in transfer payments and costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Neither transfer payments nor “hot’ wars have exhibited a large multiplier in the past. Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. government seems to have withdrawn the sponsorship that once yielded microprocessors and packet switching (the technology enabling the Internet).

Finally, reflecting their role in arranging and facilitating the extension of ever larger volumes of debt—as well as their role in providing and maintaining liquidity in the equity markets, thereby feeding a hungry nation’s preoccupation with them—financial intermediaries have come to dominate an economy that manufactures only credit (and stories, which is just about all equities amount to in this author’s opinion) and exports only jobs (see Exhibits IV and V). Historically, these intermediaries were just that, middlemen connecting economic units with surplus capital to economic units with deficit capital, collecting a small fee—usually from the party with deficit capital—for their trouble. Other than securing what was, hopefully, a useful and productive home for the capital they raised, financial intermediaries added little value and only in an oblique manner. Of and by themselves, these intermediaries were not producers or consumers of capital goods.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

41. This from Willie could be usefully appended to the above:

Full Circle of Govt Debt Default.

The continuation of the bank dominoes took 14 months, but it occurred. The initial destructive impact craters were carved in the United States and England. To be sure, major damage was done to assets in Spain and Greece and other smaller nations in the last year, but their banks had remained insulated. The discredit and death of the central bank franchise system showed first clear evidence in September 2008 on Wall Street. The unique mysterious aspect of banking systems is how they cannot be rebuilt once they turn insolvent. They rot in place, a process accelerated by rotten ethical values, euphemistically called moral hazard. To be sure, much so-called money flows through the dead rotten parts, but nothing becomes resuscitated except balance sheets. And besides, those balance sheets only look better due to accounting rules changes that deviate from mark to market (reality). The distortions magnify and turn cancerous. See the outsized mortgage bonds with no value at all. See the foreclosed homes withheld from the market for sale in bloated bank inventory. See the big bank balance sheets with large entries of idle money sitting in the US Federal Reserve. The dirtiest American secret in the banking world is not monetization of bonds. It is that US banks are deeply insolvent and would have suffered a worse fate in the last year if not for extortion from TARP funds as well as rescue funds coming from syndicate contraband accounts. See the Raw Story article and reference to the United Nations Office on Drugs & Crime (CLICK HERE).

... long snip ...

Federal deficits are rising dangerously, over a trillion$ annually. The Greenspan-Guidotti criterion for debt default has long ago been triggered, even assuming the USGovt OWNS ANY GOLD. It does not. Rather it owns clear ledger items called 'Deep Storage Gold' that is not deep in underground vaults, but deep in mountain ore deposits, not yet mined, kept very secretive. The short-term USGovt debt is over $2 trillion, closer to $3.5 trillion if immediate debt finance is counted, as in the next 12 months. The Stimulus Bill was a travesty, more wasted funds and opportunities. The TARP Fund was an $800 billion slush fund, clouded still in secrecy. The foreign wars are a sacred big money loser, with more deficits associated. The competent economists like former USFed Chairman Volcker warn that structural reform is non-existent in the USEconomy and financial sector. Volcker further warns that derivatives have done great harm, and contain no value, only a shift of financial rents. The Global Paradigm Shift is in full force since the spring months, led by the twin concepts of diversification out of US$-based reserves, and of the movement to establish an IMF basket currency as an alternative for international commerce and transaction settlement. The end of the US$ for crude oil sales has been written on the walls. The end to the US$ credit card with unlimited balance is soon to end.

Those people who act as naysayers, even to offer private criticism for the USTreasury Default forecast, seem never to grasp the above arguments, all of which have absolutely zero precedent. They did not foresee many important events, each of which were important Hat Trick Letter forecasts come true. 1) They did not foresee the insolvency of the US banking system. 2) They did not foresee the broader breakdown and wreckage in the mortgage finance industry beyond subprime. 3) They did not foresee the severe whacking to the British Pound. 4) They did not foresee the nationalization and insolvency of fraud ridden Fannie Mae. 5) They did not foresee the downturn and endless US housing bear market decline. 6) They did not foresee the heralded end of the Petro-Dollar, as in exclusive US$ usage for crude oil sales. 7) They did not foresee the Persian Gulf debt shock wave. In fact, they do not foresee anything except the sound of their own voices. THEY WILL NOT RECOGNIZE THE USTREASURY DEFAULT, MOST LIKELY TO COME AS A FORCED DEBT WRITEDOWN WITH DEEP CREDITOR LOSSES. We are in historically unprecedented times. Look for a new USDollar to be used inside the United States fence posts, since the USGovt does not control contracts conducted globally. The devaluation of the US$ will come full circle, and lead to an implosion internally.

TRIGGER EVENT, INSOLVENT USFED !!

The US Federal Reserve is under fire. Many in the USCongress wish to force audits of its balance sheet. Many in the USCongress wish to determine what it does with hundreds of billion$ in USGovt funds. Many citizens in the United States wish to understand its everyday operations and where its loyalty lies, let alone how it manages to fail at both its primary functions. Its defenders cannot come to grips with how the US$ has fallen over 98% in value since its inception. Its defenders cannot come to grips with how the USEconomy is stifled by near 20% unemployment (when those without work are counted). Its defenders cannot justify, or even permit true statistics, regarding the powerful monetization of US$-based official bonds. We are witnessing the Weimar-ization of the USFed and the USTreasury Bond and the USDollar. Once again, American economists ignore history, choose to rewrite it, and ignore the path leading to increasingly damaging cycles. This cycle is systemic, not a business cycle, not a credit cycle, and it contains a cliff much bigger and deeper. The train wreck in progress will culminate in a USTreasury Default.

/more... http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/1215.html

[Ghost Dog]

42. LEAP/E2020: - Public deficits noose to strangle Western states and their social security systems

LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009 (1), and that the size of budget deficits preclude any significant new expenditures.

If this public deficit « slip knot » which governments gladly placed around their necks in 2009, refusing to make the financial system pay for mistakes (2) is going to weigh heavily on all public expenditure, it is going to particularly affect the social security systems of the rich countries in always impoverishing the middle classes and the retired, and setting the poorest adrift (3).

At the same time, the general context of the bankruptcy of an increasing number of states and other authorities (regions, provinces, federal states) will entail a double paradoxical event of increasing interest rates and the flight out of currencies towards gold. In the absence of an organised alternative to a weakening US Dollar and in order to find an alternative to the loss in value of treasury bonds (in particular US ones) all central banks will have, in part, to « reconvert to gold », the old enemy of the US Federal Reserve, without being able to state the fact officially. The bet on recovery having been, at this point, totally lost by governments and central banks (4), this Spring 2010 tipping point is thus going to represent the beginning of the huge transfer of 20,000 billion USD of « ghost assets » (5) in the direction of the social security systems of the countries which have accumulated them.

... long snip ...

The deteriorating ratings published by US rating agencies since the Dubai crisis shows, as always, that these agencies don’t know how to (or can’t) anticipate these developments. Let’s remember that they didn’t see the sub-prime crisis coming nor the collapse of Lehman Brothers and AIG, nor the Dubai crisis. Because they are dependent on the US government (14), they are unable, of course, to directly blame the two at the heart of present financial system (Washington and London). However, they show from which direction the next big shock is going to come, State bonds… and in this field, the two countries with the most exposure are the United States and Great Britain.

Besides, it is very instructive to see the subtle change in the tenor of the articles published by these agencies. In a few weeks we have gone from the same old explanation stating that the intrinsic quality of these two countries’ (15) economies and their management removes all risk of default on the part of their respective governments to a warning that, from 2010, it will be necessary to demonstrate these qualities and management skills in order to keep the coveted Triple A rating which allows borrowing at the lowest cost (16). If even the rating agencies start to ask for proof, it’s because things are going really badly.

To finish on Greece’s case, our team feels that the current situation is a triple positive for the Eurozone:

. it requires it to seriously consider the solidarity measures to put in place in this type of situation. The watchers are thus going to have to make a clear choice: either they treat Greece as an isolated example, or they treat it as a component of the Eurozone. But they can’t do both at once, adding the weakness of an isolated Greece to a weakened Eurozone caused by Greece.


. it requires, at last, the Greek authorities to carry out an operation of « Truth » on the financial state of their country and allows the EU to push forward the necessary reforms, notably to substantially reduce endemic corruption and cronyism (17).

. it should serve as an example to European governments (and others) who fudge economic and social statistics more and more, demonstrating that such fudging only results in plunging a country into crisis even more. Sadly, we are more doubtful on the idea that other leaders will follow the Greek Prime Minister’s example… certainly not before a change of government in Great Britain, the United States, France, or Germany.
___________

-------
Notes:

(1) Consumption still remains lack-lustre in the United States and Europe as well (in spite of year-end celebrations). So-called Chinese growth (watch this eye-opening video by Al Jazeera on the reality behind the Chinese numbers) doesn’t even begin to stimulate its Japanese neighbour one little bit (which would have been a clear signal that there really has been a restart of the Chinese economy), requiring it to be the first major country to adopt a second economic stimulation package in less than two years (source: Asahi Shimbun, 09/12/2009). On the other hand the faking of statistics is beating all records: a « radical » fall in unemployment in the United States fed by temporary jobs related to the Christmas shopping period and a method of calculation as « theoretical » as before (source: Global Economic Trend Analysis, 04/12/2009), « Black Friday:// » which in fact saw the value of sales dropping compared to the year before (source: Reuters, 29/11/2009), unemployment which continues to rise, and business real-estate in free-fall in Europe (source: Les Echos, 10/12/2009, and an interesting visual stroll amongst empty office blocks in Amsterdam made by Tako Dankers, « reassuring » Chinese industrial production numbers in November 2009 since they were compared to the big fall in November 2008. Such fantastic results for the hundreds of billions of 2009 stimulus plans!

/more... http://leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-40-is-available!-Spring-2010-A-new-tipping-point-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-When-the-slip-knot-around-public_a4093.html

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Building Permits Nov
Briefing.com 560K
Consensus 570K
Prior 552K

08:30 Housing Starts Nov
Briefing.com 545K
Consensus 574K
Prior 529K

08:30 CPI Nov
Briefing.com 0.3%
Consensus 0.4%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Core CPI Nov
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.3%

08:30 Current Account Balance Q3
Briefing.com -$104.6B
Consensus -$107.5B
Prior -$98.8B

10:30 Crude Inventories 12/11
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -3.82M

14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Dec 16
Briefing.com 0.25%
Consensus 0.25%
Prior 0.25%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[rfranklin]

20. Treasurys improve after CPI, housing data

Treasurys improve after CPI, housing data
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices turned up on Wednesday, pushing yields lower, after a report showed the government's consumer price index rose 0.4% in November in line with expectations. Core prices, excluding food and energy, were flat, while economists expected a slight increase. Two-year note yields (U.S.:UST2YR) declined 2 basis points to 0.84%. A separate report showed housing starts rose to a 574,000 pace in November. Price activity is likely to be muted before the Federal Reserve completes its monetary policy meeting later in the session. Bond analysts expect no change to the central bank's commitment to keep interest rates low for some time, though its assessment of the economy is likely to be upgraded.

[Ghost Dog]

49. Exceptionally low rates for an extended period: Fed

Most liquidity facilities will expire February 1 2010.

Here is the statement.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers near $71 amid US crude supply jump

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered near $71 a barrel Wednesday in Asia with gains tempered by a U.S. crude supply report that showed an unexpected rise in inventories last week.
.....

U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Crude stocks rose 920,000 barrels while analysts had expected a drop of 2.0 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration plans to announce its inventory report later Wednesday.
.....

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil rose 1.67 cents to $1.92 while gasoline gained 1 cent to $1.855. Natural gas jumped 2.8 cents to $5.55 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Oh my.

Abu Dhabi seeks to terminate Citi stock purchase

NEW YORK – Citigroup Inc. said Tuesday that the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has filed a claim against the bank seeking to either terminate a deal to buy $7.5 billion worth of its stock or receive damages of more than $4 billion.
.....

The fund received equity units that paid a high annual dividend. The units were to be converted into Citigroup common shares at a price of up to $37.24 a share between March 15, 2010, and Sept. 15, 2011, making the fund one of Citi's largest shareholders with a 4.9 percent stake.
.....

Since the end of November 2007, Citi shares have tumbled 89 percent from the $33 range to less than $4. At $37.24 per share, the conversion price would amount to more than 10 times Citi's closing stock price Tuesday of $3.56.

The fund's arbitration claim, filed in New York, alleges "fraudulent misrepresentations" in connection with the sale.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091216/ap_on_bi_ge/us_citigroup_abu_dhabi

[Demeter]

21. Amazing

Bet if Obama wanted to shut Citi down, he'd have at least one world power behind him....

You know, they will simply pump the drug into Citi, trying to reflate it with cheap money and hot air.

[Ghost Dog]

40. Next Phase in Full Swing

very very soon.

Analysts said they were not surprised by the investment agency's attempt to mitigate its losses, but warned that if successful, it could set a nasty precedent for similar investors in Citigroup that had lost money.

...

Rochdale Securities banking analyst Dick Bove said Citigroup may not want to set a precedent by refunding the investment, but must respond to the claim from an important client in a key area of the globe. "It's in Citigroup's interest to have (CEO) Vikram Pandit get on a plane to Abu Dhabi and cut the conversion price to $10 a share and make this problem go away," Bove said. "They used to be the primary bank outside the Arab banks (in the Gulf region)."

At the end of 2008, Citigroup had about a $1.92 billion loan exposure to the United Arab Emirates, of which Dubai is a part.

Walter Todd, portfolio manager for Greenwood Capital Management, said he was "not surprised" that Abu Dhabi is claiming damages from the investment. "But if they won this, it could open a can of worms for a lot of firms who were raising capital at the time," said Todd, who does not own Citigroup shares.

The claim by ADIA comes weeks after Kuwait Investment Authority and Singapore's GIC cashed in stakes in Citigroup for profits of over $1 billion each. ADIA has an estimated $500 billion to $700 billion of assets.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE5BF02520091216?symbol=C&sp=true

[ozymandius]

5. FDIC approves sharp increase in 2010 budget to $4B

WASHINGTON – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Tuesday its 2010 budget will jump to $4 billion from $2.6 billion this year, and announced plans to hire more than 1,600 mostly temporary employees as it continues to grapple with a rising number of bank failures.

The FDIC's board voted at a public meeting to approve the 2010 budget, which includes $2.5 billion for resolving failed banks taken over by the agency. That's up from $1.3 billion in 2009. The hiring plans will bring the number of FDIC employees to 8,653.

So far this year, 133 U.S. banks have succumbed to the soured economy and a cascade of loan defaults — the most in a year since 1992 at the height of the savings-and-loan crisis. They compare with 25 last year and three in 2007. The failures have cost the federal deposit insurance fund more than $30 billion so far this year.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has said most banks continue to be profitable but others continue to be stressed, and that the number of failures could rise further next year. The agency expects the cost of bank failures to grow to about $100 billion over the next four years.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091216/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fdic_budget

---

Obviously - FDIC expects to be extremely busy. I wonder if Citi is in the crosshairs.

[Roland99]

7. If Glass-Steagall is restored, we're going to see the cockroaches scurrying like mad.

[ozymandius]

9. Volker says it is still too early to lace up your stompin' boots.

Volcker’s anti-Geithner, anti-Summers World Tour

“Bankers and regulators have not come anywhere close to responding with necessary vigor” to the worst economic crisis in 70 years. There is a lot of evidence that financial weaknesses brought us to the brink of a great depression . . . The proposed changes are like a dimple.”

-Paul A. Volcker, Dec. 8. at a conference in West Sussex, England.

That paraphrased quote above comes to us from none other than Tall Paul on his five country, eight week, Bankers Shame lecture series. The Bloomberg article its from (Regulators Resist Volcker Wandering Warning of Too-Big-to-Fail) extensively reviews the anti-Geithner, anti-Summers World Tour.
.....

Of all the critics out there on this issue, none is more important, accurate and credible (present company included) than Volcker. He is The Man on these issues: Make banks smaller, make them accountable, don’t engage in moral hazard, do not reward reckless speculation. If they are too big to fail, then they are too big.

If the President were nearly as smart as advertised. he would jettison the dynamic duo in favor of Volcker’s prescriptions. He is the only politician/banker who is not afraid to prescribe foul tatsing but effective medicine . . .

[hamerfan]

22. Restoring Glass-Steagall would be great,

but I don't see Congress doing it. Ever.
A shame that they no longer work for us, but for themselves (and the corporations) instead.

[Dr.Phool]

30. Sadly, I have to agree.

[Po_d Mainiac]

14. The FDIC has no worry with Shitibank....Chopper

will rain as much liquidity on their dead carcass as is necessary to totally trash the value of the greenback :grr:

[FarCenter]

29. I don't think that CitiBank is a problem; CitiGroup is the problem

You need to distinguish between the nationally chartered bank(s) owned by CitiGroup and the overall financial industry corporation. FDIC doesn't have jurisdiction over the latter.

[Po_d Mainiac]

62. yup, should have edited the post n/t

[DemReadingDU]

33. Failures have cost the FDIC more than $30 billion so far this year.

2009 budget was only $1.3 billion? And the next year's budget is for $4 billion?

:wtf:

[AnneD]

50. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. The SG Amendment is all about transparency. When you go into a bank...You should be in a bank. When you are in an investment house-you should know you are in an investment house. Things should be transparent. I got this little e-mail at work yesterday. I would love feedback.

"HISD employees:

As you know, because HISD is a public entity, all employee salaries are a matter of public record. Several years ago, the Houston Chronicle posted a searchable database of salaries paid by local public entities, including HISD.

The purpose of this e-mail is to make you aware that the Chronicle is in the process of updating those salaries, and HISD's Media Relations Department received word today that the update of HISD salaries on the Chronicle's Web site would "go live" as early as today. In fact, the salaries of principals and assistant principals were posted today. Teachers' salaries will be posted Wednesday, and other salaries may be posted later.

Thank you"

Now, when we get a bonus-this information, along with our names, is published in the news paper. Also our addresses (as a Nurse,I know mine is online although the Doctors do not have theirs publicized) can be found via public records. As a safety precaution-I have a PO Box as my address.

We have had teachers that had restraining orders ferreted out by vicious ex's and creditors that hound folks over this (some of our low wage earners). Why is it we have to be ultra transparent to the point of endangerment and the crooks get away with grand theft.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

6. Asian Shares End Mixed; Japan Banks Surge

....
Japan's Nikkei ended up 0.9% at 10177.41, China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.6% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 0.9%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.3%, South Korea's Kospi slipped 0.1% and Taiwan's Taiex gave up 0.7%. India's Sensex was flat while Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 0.5%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 42 points higher in screen trade.

Japanese banks jumped on a rush of buyers after the Nikkei reported that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which has been discussing introducing stricter capital requirements since September 2008, has agreed to effectively delay the enforcement of new capital adequacy rules for large banks, opting to create a transition period of at least 10 years.
.....

Japanese government bond futures ended higher, reversing early losses. Market participants were buying back bonds as concerns over oversupply receded after the Japanese government Tuesday set a limit on new debt sales in the next fiscal year, said Mizuho Securities market analyst Masashi Shimominami. But "skepticism lingers about whether the government can really achieve the target, so it's difficult to continue buying back JGBs actively."

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091216-703015.html

[ozymandius]

8. Obama weighs ordering new debt commission

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Barack Obama is seriously considering an executive order to create a bipartisan commission that could weigh sweeping tax increases and spending cuts to try slash the soaring federal deficit, CNN has learned.

Documents obtained by CNN show that top advisers to the president have been privately weighing various versions of a commission, and there are differing opinions about how to structure it. Officials say that some inside the administration are pushing for a narrow mandate because it's too complicated to tackle reform of the tax system and possible spending cuts to various popular programs like Social Security and Medicare all at once.
.....

The Obama administration's deliberations are taking on some urgency behind closed doors because the president is facing heavy pressure from Sens. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., and Judd Gregg, R-N.H., to appoint a commission. Conrad and Gregg, along with a group of moderates led by Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., have been threatening to block a large increase in the nation's debt ceiling unless the president agrees to a commission.

While some critics charge a commission would be a cop-out because it would punt Congressional decisions to an outside panel, the senators pushing the plan believe the current system is broken and it will take a new mechanism to enact the wrenching changes that will be needed to get the budget back into balance.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/15/news/economy/Obama_debt_commission/index.htm

---

Odd, how there is no mention of cutting the Pentagon's budget, even with a possible "peace dividend" as we begin to disentangle ourselves from two unnecessary, costly wars.

[fasttense]

17. I seem to recall Raygun doing something like this and the results were

A doubling of Social Security taxes to the middle class and poor, and a tax decrease for the rich. This Raygun bipartisan commission started the Social Security Trust fund that was suppose to ensure adequate funding for the baby boomers. Greenspan was the chairman of this commission and was later named Fed chair. It resulted in the baby boomers being the 1st generation to pay both for their parent's retirement and their own.

Funny how all those changes did nothing but line the pockets of the uber wealthy. And then.....Greenspan and Raygun borrowed the surplus revenue collected by Social Security and spent the money on other purposes--whatever the presidents and Congress decide, including more tax cuts for monied interests. How convenient.

I don't trust bipartisan commissions because they aren't elected officials and don't give a crap about the common man. They are rarely held accountable for their decisions and we the masses get to pay the bill.

This is being pushed by Peter G. Peterson a millionaire who is dying to get his hands on your social security. He is a rich man who wants only 2 classes in the US the uber wealthy (himself) and the abject poor. Can you say "free" trade economics?

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090302/greider

[Demeter]

25. Of Course, Ending those Illegal and Pointless Wars Is out of the question

If Tansy doesn't win election, I'm sponsoring a mass migration. Venezuela, anyone?

[Dr.Phool]

28. I'm thinking Costa Rica.

You can buy into the national health plan for $100 per month.

I'd hate to be in Venezuela during the next coup attempt.

[Tansy_Gold]

58. 16 December 2009 Why I am running for President in 2012

(You can expect to get this on an irregular basis, tucked away wherever I feel like tucking them.)

We went through a nerve-wracking election year in 2008. First it was the vicious primary season which saw many of us wondering if the Clinton-backers and the Obama-supporters would ever speak to each other again, much less vote for the others' candidate. Then it was the McCain-Palin circus that saw the skyrocket debut of Dumber than Dumb. For a while there, the pig, er, pitbull in lipstick (with all due apologies to Chiquita, my own little American Staffordshire Terrier) had some of us scared. Fortunately, Sarah Barracude turned out to be a dead fish, and we went into the final moments of election night with soaring hopes.

And then it was actually real. Barack Hussein Obama was our president-elect. Change was on its way and Hope was holding the door open.

But before Change arrived, people like Robert Gates and Larry Summers and Rahm Emanuel and Tim Geithner marched in, and I think they shut the door in Change's face.

Before November 2008 had ended, and long before Obama was sworn in, some of us knew we'd been had. To be sure, there were those who never trusted Obama in the first place, and maybe they just voted for him as the lesser of two evils. But many of us truly hoped he would make good on his promises of change. Or at least that he would try.

There were bailouts and bonuses. Unions were shafted and the wars went on. Don't Ask, Don't Tell remained firmly in place, while investigations of torture were off the table. As each month went by and another disappointment made headlines -- on DU if not in the MSM -- the loyal supporters shook their pompoms and called the rest of us trolls or disgruntled Hillary supporters.

Then came Health Care Reform. Or rather, there went Health Care Reform.

Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, and escalated the war in Afghanistan.

Larry Summers said the recession is over, but more and more and more people lost jobs.

The White House says Howard Dean is irrelevant and the Justice Department says detainees aren't people.

There is something wrong with this picture. Very wrong.

So I'm going to run for president. Starting now.





The DUer who isn't really


Tansy Gold

[pengillian101]

63. You have my vote,

"Before November 2008 had ended, and long before Obama was sworn in, some of us knew we'd been had. To be sure, there were those who never trusted Obama in the first place, and maybe they just voted for him as the lesser of two evils. But many of us truly hoped he would make good on his promises of change. Or at least that he would try."

*****

Hope and change my ass.

[mbperrin]

35. And strange that no one mentions that if we put folks back to work, they

will pay TAXES on their earnings, and with those earnings, will buy more, resulting increased TAX revenues as well.

No need to raise taxes or cut spending particularly, unless we assume no jobs are coming.

Of course, every dime spent on killing people of color around the world is essential and certainly couldn't be cut, much less eliminated. Wait...

[ozymandius]

10. Fuck. Them.

Citigroup gains massive tax break in deal with IRS
Served by Jesse of Le Café Américain (cross-post on Naked Capitalism)

Maybe it’s a mistake. Did Timmy have time to run their return on TurboTax?

Well, at least it will make the results of the TARP program look better on paper if it drives up Citi’s stock price by inflating their financial results. That’s a plus, right?

I guess raising the credit card rates to 26% and free money from Ben was not enough to push Citi over its capital objectives in time for bonus season. We’ll all have to really tighten our belts for this one.

Change you can believe in.

Citigroup gains massive tax break in deal with IRS
By Binyamin Appelbaum
Tuesday, December 15, 2009; 8:05 PM

The federal government quietly agreed to forgo billions of dollars in potential tax payments from Citigroup as part of the deal announced this week to wean the company from the massive taxpayer bailout that helped it survive the financial crisis.

The Internal Revenue Service on Friday issued an exception to longstanding tax rules for the benefit of Citigroup and the few other companies partially owned by the government. As a result, Citigroup will be allowed to retain $38 billion in tax breaks that otherwise would decline in value when the government sells its stake to private investors.

While the Obama administration has said taxpayers likely will profit from the sale of the Citigroup shares, accounting experts said the lost tax revenue could easily outstrip those profits.

Treasury officials said the most recent change was part of a broader decision initially made last year to shelter companies that accepted federal aid under the Troubled Assets Relief Program from the normal consequences of such an investment. Officials also said that the ruling benefited taxpayers because it made shares in Citigroup more valuable and asserted that without the ruling, Citigroup could not have repaid the government at this time. (Thank God. Just in time for prime bonus season – Jesse)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/15/AR2009121504534.html

Fuck them all.

[Po_d Mainiac]

15. No doubt all the other zombies will expect similar treatment

[mbperrin]

37. I have no reason to think they won't get it, either.

Please insert your favorite epithet here.

[DemReadingDU]

34. bigger bonuses for the banksters?

[skoalyman]

11. Morning ozzy heres another travesty link below.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4186172

It looks like the animals are running the zoo.:puke:

[ozymandius]

13. This is infuriating.

One provision that may win tech industry support, calls for the release next year of all the unused H-1B visas from 1992-2008, around 309,000 visas, said one source who has seen some details.

Because there is no one trained in tech who currently resides here? I know three highly qualified techies who are underemployed. All three used to work in major systems support for banks and health insurance processing.

[Dr.Phool]

46. Is there really, really any doubt who Congress works for, anymore?

Corruption and crony capitalism have become so much the norm, they don't even attempt to hide it anymore.

[ozymandius]

12. Credit card chargeoffs rise in November

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Most U.S. credit card companies reported charge-offs rose in November after two months of declines in a sign that consumers remain under stress, sending shares down industrywide.

In a regulatory filing on Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), the largest U.S. issuer of Visa-brand credit cards, said charge-offs -- loans the company does not expect to be repaid -- rose to 8.81 percent in November from 8.02 percent in October.

It was the largest increase among the biggest credit card issuers, but not the only one.

Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) said its charge-off rate rose to 9.60 percent from 9.04 percent, and Discover Financial Services (DFS.N) said its rate rose to 8.98 percent from 8.54 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091215/bs_nm/us_creditcards

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. cross post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php

The Obama administration said Tuesday that the Shinnecock Indians on Long Island meet the criteria for federal recognition, signaling the end of a 30-year court battle and clearing a path for the tribe to pursue its plans for a casino in New York City or its suburbs.
........
Would they settle for the casinos on wall street instead?

[ozymandius]

18. Maybe an IPO?

That would be nearly the same thing.

Bye, all. I will revisit when the day is done.

:hi:

[Po_d Mainiac]

26. Hmmm

History of profitable quarters....Nope
Business plan drawn on used toilet paper...Yup
Add a no so quite "quiet period" around the S-1 filing, and there is definite IPO pontential

:toast:

[Festivito]

19. Debt: 12/14/2009 12,071,280,871,918.40 (DOWN 10,428,510,613.95) (Mon)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,710,218,762,278.54 + 4,361,062,109,639.86
DOWN 12,123,818,214.95 + UP 1,695,307,601.00

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,202,078 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,166.77.
A family of three owes $117,500.32. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 3,798,761,690.73.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,659,133,183.51.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,573,354,693.72.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 51 reports in 75 days of FY2010 averaging 3.17B$ per report, 2.15B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,133 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/14/2009 12,071,280,871,918.40 BHO (UP 1,444,403,823,005.32 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,161,451,868,406.70 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,785,732,426,245.95 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon

99,136,142,341.46 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4184785&mesg_id=4184794

[Festivito]

56. Debt: 12/15/2009 12,134,970,556,795.04 (UP 63,689,684,876.64) (Tue)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. For today, it jumps up big. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,769,018,438,498.81 + 4,365,952,118,296.23
UP 58,799,676,220.27 + UP 4,890,008,656.37

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,210,718 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,372.32.
A family of three owes $118,116.96. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,521,076,381.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,782,122,679.40.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,483,240,011.94.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 52 reports in 76 days of FY2010 averaging 4.33B$ per report, 2.96B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,132 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/15/2009 12,134,970,556,795.04 BHO (UP 1,508,093,507,881.96 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,225,141,553,283.30 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,081,271,933,531.64 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********

157,984,906,171.00 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4186375&mesg_id=4186495

[UpInArms]

23. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.827 Change -0.134 (-0.17%)

Daily Sound Bites

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2009-12-16-1233-Daily_Sound_Bites.html



...more...


BoE May Change Stance With Improvement In Labor Market

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/top_fx_headlines/2009-12-16-1259-BoE_May_Change_Stance_With.html



Fundamental Headlines

• Big Decision Looms on Fannie, Freddie – Wall Street Journal
• Banks revive spirits as traders await the Fed-Financial Times
• Abu Dhabi fund files claim against Citi - Financial Times
• Stocks, U.S. Futures, Oil Rally on Speculation Fed to Hold Interest Rates -Bloomberg
• Fed May Say Economy Strengthening as It Repeats Pledge to Keep Rates Low -Bloomberg


EUR/USD – The Euro-zone PMI reading for November rose to a two year high of 54.2 from 53.7 the month prior as both the manufacturing and service sectors continue to expand. Sustainable activity could lead the ECB to reconsider their current dovish stance on monetary policy. Policy makers still see downside risks and are expected to remain on hold unless inflation begins to rise. November’s CPI figures rising to 0.5% from -0.1% missed estimates of 0.6% and remain far from the central bank’s 2.0% target which will allow them to maintain their measured approach. A 2.4% drop in energy costs combined with housing sliding 1.0% offset broader gains.

GBP/USD – U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly fell for the first time since February, 2008 by 6,3000. Economists were looking for a rise of 12,500 in the number of unemployed as labor figures often lag growth. The U.K. economy is expected to have expended in the fourth quarter after experiencing its worst postwar recession. The claimant count rate held at 5.0% amid expectations of a rise to 5.1% with the average earnings including bonus rising by 1.5% versus forecasts of 1.2%. Higher wages support the government’s prediction that inflation could rise to 3.0% in early 2010, which will put pressure in the MPC to raise rates.

...more...

[hamerfan]

24. Fraud prosecutions fell as crisis loomed

WASHINGTON — Federal prosecutions for serious financial crime plummeted as the nation headed toward one of the worst economic meltdowns in U.S. history, a USA TODAY examination of Justice Department records shows.
That drop in enforcement touched everything from stock-trading schemes and corporate wrongdoing to fraud aimed at individual consumers, according to the records. From the fiscal years 2003 to 2009, the number of federal corporate fraud cases plunged 55%; securities fraud charges dropped 17%; and bankruptcy fraud cases fell by 44%.
More here:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-12-15-prosecute-fraud_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

[Tansy_Gold]

32. More evidence of whose pocket Barry's in

I haven't get come up with a satisfactory epithet for Obama. we had booooosh and cheeeeeeney and rumsferatu and so on, but we don't yet have one for the current (p)resident.

What a fraud.

I hate to admit it but the BF was right -- there's not a whole lotta difference, except obama speaks better, looks better, and has a slightly more intelligent VP than McCain would have.

:puke:



TG2012

[Ghost Dog]

43. "Bomber". n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

44. I like it.

Well, I don't "like" it, but I like it.

[Dr.Phool]

45. Bomber and Chopper

The Dynamite Duo.

[saigon68]

57. Yes We Can

[Demeter]

60. The Wiz

Wizard of O(bama)z, that is. The Whiz Kid. Take a whizz...

God, I'm tired. Trying, but tired. Tired of trying?

It's been a long day.


That Mountain of Mending is down to a foothill, the first shade is hung and we went out and bought more...half the house is really habitable for the first time in over a year....and I really need a new car.

It was 18F today, for most of the day. With windchill, much less.

[Tansy_Gold]

61. The Wizard of Whizz. . . . .

Another good one.



Ironing done here, no mending, but plenty of other stuff. Nice weeather, upper 60s to low 70s but chilly at night. Clear skies and I haven't seen a single meteor, which has me bummed.

I saw the reports of an effective unemployment rate for Detroit of 50%. My good goddess, does anyone at all realize what that means??? Yes, of course they do, both those who lament it and those who gloat over it. Reagan the union buster must be so freaking proud of himself.

Stay warm, Demeter.



TG2012

[Demeter]

27. I'm Sharpening Up the FRSP

We will be having revolution, the minute this Commission cuts the social insurance we bought and paid for.

[Dr.Phool]

31. I'm going to open up a concession on the National Mall.

Selling torches, and pitchforks.

But, you'll have to go to Home Depot to buy the rope. I believe it was Karl Marx who said, "When we hang the Capitalists, we'll buy the rope from them". Or something like that.

[mbperrin]

38. Lenin said it. "The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them."

I wrote a paper on this back in the early 70s. First chance I've had to use it. Thanks!

[skoalyman]

47. You'll need somthin stronger then a rope for chopper ben,

cable perhaps.

[AnneD]

51. Year ago, when it first looked like they would do away with SS....

I took some comfort in the fact that I had told my daughter that I would have an Eskimo retirement--a few cans of cat food, some sterno, and a spot on an iceberg. Now I won't even get that. :(

[hamerfan]

36. Bernanke is Time's POTY!

Talk about infuriating! Grrr...

http://www.time.com/time/

[mbperrin]

39. He joins other distinguished folks, including

Adolph Hitler (1938); Joseph Stalin (1939 AND 1942); Ayatollah Khomeini (1979); Newt Gingrich (1995); Rudy Guiliani (2001).

What great company!

[skoalyman]

48. He should be on front page of fbi's most wanted list lol

[AnneD]

52. I couldn't help but notice....

he sure is sitting funny in that picture, as if WS stuck it to him with out any Kentucky jelly.:spray::rofl: God I crack myself up sometimes.

[skoalyman]

53. lol chopper ben shafted

[DemReadingDU]

54. Person of the Year, My Foot! Bernanke "Failed Miserably," Chris Whalen Says

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12/16/09 Person of the Year, My Foot! Bernanke "Failed Miserably," Chris Whalen Says

Ben Bernanke has been named Time's "Person of the Year," for his aggressive actions to stem the global financial crisis.

"His creative leadership helped ensure that 2009 was a period of weak recovery rather than catastrophic depression, and he still wields unrivaled power over our money, our jobs, our savings and our national future," Time's Michael Grunwald writes. "The decisions he has made, and those he has yet to make, will shape the path of our prosperity, the direction of our politics and our relationship to the world. "

Bernanke was clearly at center of the government's response to the financial crisis and remains "the most important player guiding the world's most important economy," as Grunwald writes. By his own admission, the chairman didn't see the credit crisis of 2008 coming and was too slow to react. Still, all but his most strident critics agree Bernanke helped prevent an even worse outcome, possibly a second Great Depression.

But does Bernanke deserve to be "Person of the Year"?

"Absolutely not," says Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics. "On a personal level I have great sympathy for Chairman Bernanke but he's made such a pig's breakfast of this whole situation."

Unlike those who praise Bernanke for bringing the economy back from the brink of the abyss, Whalen says all he's done is "saved the dealer community" from themselves by overseeing a massive taxpayer-funded bailout of the financial community.

Bernanke "hasn't done anything for the real economy," the analyst says. "The only thing I see is inflation. For the average American the message they should take away from this year is this: Bernanke's policy has insured we'll see the purchasing power of Americans' savings dwindle."

A former staffer at the New York Fed, Whalen also says Bernanke "failed miserably" in maintaining the Fed's independence from both the banks and from politics.

Rather than merely lending money to the Treasury, Bernanke put the Fed directly in the middle of the 2008 bailouts - most notably of AIG, Whalen recalls.

"By taking the lead undermined the Fed's independence," he says. "He really intervened not so much in the financial markets but in American politics. He gave Bush and Paulson a pass -- they didn't have to take responsibility for the crisis and they hand the ball to Barack Obama."

It is for these reasons, Whalen says, that Bernanke's reconfirmation by Congress is not assured, and politicians on both sides of the isle are looking to reign in the Fed's power. It's ironic Bernanke is being lauded in the mainstream press at a time when he -- and the institution he leads -- are under so much pressure in Washington.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/person-of-the-year-my-foot!-bernanke-%22failed-miserably%22-chris-whalen-says-391846.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,DIA,TLT,TWX,GLD&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

[skoalyman]

55. Found a pic of bens desk

[tclambert]

59. What's he watching on the TV?

Cramer? Fox "News"?