STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 17

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 17, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 16, 2009

Dow... 10,441.12 -10.88 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq... 2,206.91 +5.86 (+0.27%)
S&P 500... 1,109.18 +1.25 (+0.11%)
Gold future... 1,136 +13.00 (+1.16%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.59 +0.01 (+0.22%)
30-Year Bond 4.52 +0.00 (+0.04%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Clear the Mechanism
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

...
Taking a step back and looking at the big picture makes it clear that we are still within the confines of a secular bear market that began in 2000, while we are currently undergoing a second cyclical bull market that began in March of this year. The current secular bear market is the fourth one since the early 1900s and has so far been comparable in terms of magnitude, though not duration. The prior three secular bear markets lasted on average 191 months, or nearly 16 years, and witnessed an average decline of 68.60%. The current secular bear market is 108 months old, just over half the average life a secular bear market, though it witnessed a 65.54% decline from the 2000 top to the March 2009 low.

(see chart)

While the current secular bear market has reached a decline comparable to the prior examples its duration has been much shorter. Given the relatively young age of the current secular bear market the current cyclical bull market is not likely the start of a new secular bull market as we are likely to remain within the confines of a secular bear market into the next decade (how’s that for a tongue twister?). Supporting the notion that the current secular bear market will continue into the next decade is the ongoing deleveraging in the private sector. A hallmark of secular bull markets is a leveraging up of private sector balance sheets while secular bear markets witness either flat or declining leverage as consumers pair back their debt levels.

You can see this dynamic below when looking at the ratio of household liabilities as a percentage of disposable personal income (leverage) versus the S&P 500 deflated by the CPI (real stock prices). The secular bear market in the 1970s saw the financial leverage of households remain relatively flat while the great 1980-2000 secular bull market witnessed unprecedented leveraging of household balance sheets. An anomaly in the current secular bear market that began in 2000 was the delayed deleveraging in the private sector that began nearly 10 years later. This was no doubt in thanks to the market manipulation by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan who fostered a housing bubble with ultra-low interest rates and slack oversight of the mortgage industry lending standards.

.....
If we are still within the confines of a secular bear market, at which point should investors be concerned that the current cyclical bull market will end and practice some risk management by reducing exposure to stocks? This is an important question investors need to ask themselves as a buy-and-hold strategy has been shown to be a losing proposition during secular bear markets. When should the focus shift from capital appreciation (the return ON capital) to capital preservation (the return OF capital)?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[rfranklin]

2. Good Morning, Ozy!

You are up bright and early.

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning, rfranklin.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I usually get up at 5am. I need time to tend to the livestock (cats, dog, fish) and make coffee.

Sad to say - my mama fish died last night: a pineapple swordtail. She was born in our aquarium and produced three litters of her own. She was very old as swordtail standards go. I was quite surprised how heavy she was when I heaved her out of the tank. Of those three litters - we still have many young swordtails including her mate.

As for bright and early - how's it with you with the sky so dark this morning?

[rfranklin]

7. My condolences for your loss...

I only have the one cat who sits on my chest and pats my face to let me know it is time for breakfact--usually around 4:30 a.m.

[ozymandius]

9. Thank you.

She was a good mama. You cat sounds charming.

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 12/12
Briefing.com 450K
Consensus 465K
Prior 474K

08:30 Continuing Claims 12/5
Briefing.com 5250K
Consensus 5180K
Prior 5157K

10:00 Leading Indicators Nov
Briefing.com 0.6%
Consensus 0.7%
Prior 0.3%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Dec
Briefing.com 17.5
Consensus 16.0
Prior 16.7

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Ghost Dog]

34. US Jobless Claims +7K To 480K In Dec 12 Week

Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 480,000 in the week ended Dec. 12, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected claims would fall by 9,000.

The Labor Department also revised last week's surprising spike in claims downward slightly to 473,000 from 474,000.

The tally of continuing claims in the week of Dec. 5, those drawn by workers collecting benefits for more than one week, also rose, climbing 5,000 to 5,186,000.

The four-week average of new claims, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, fell 5,250 to 467,500 - marking its 15th consecutive drop.

The unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance remained unchanged at 3.9%.

Not adjusted to reflect seasonal fluctuations, New York reported the largest jump in new claims -- 16,344 -- during the Dec. 5 week due to an increase in layoffs in the construction, service and transportation sectors.

Kansas reported the largest decrease but did not provide a reason for the drop.

/. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=c0b129b5-6a4a-4005-9e2e-46cee6782a98

[Ghost Dog]

41. Initial Jobless Claims Higher Than Consensus, Exhaustion Hits 144 Thousand In Prior Week

Even as initial jobless claims jumped by 7,000 to 480k in the week ended December 12, disappointing the consensus watchers which expected a number between 450-475k, the story continues to be in the exhaustion numbers where 144 thousand people dropped off continuing claims and shifted to either extended or EUC. And while EUC moderated from an increase of 328k to "only" 46 thousand, the combination of extended and EUC was worse than even the prior week, when the total of these two categories indicated 137 thousand had exhausted traditional insurance benefits.

/Data, comments... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-jobless-claims-higher-consensus-144-thousand-roll-continuing-claims

---

Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increase (Update2)

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans than anticipated filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week, a reminder that the labor market will take time to strengthen and may weigh on the economic recovery.

...

Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday said weakness in the labor market is restraining consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. Concerns over the lack of jobs prompted the central bank yesterday to reiterate a pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate low for an “extended period.”

...

Jobless claims were projected to drop to 465,000 from 474,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median forecast of 43 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 450,000 to 475,000.

The report showed the four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, fell to 467,500 last week, the lowest level since September 2008, from 472,750.

Continuing claims increased by 5,000 in the week ended Dec. 5 to 5.19 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

Today’s report showed the number of people who’ve use up their traditional benefits and are now collecting extended payments jumped by about 144,000 to 4.73 million in the week ended Nov. 28. Seventeen of the 50 states and territories where workers are eligible to receive the government’s latest 13-week extension have begun to report that data, a Labor Department spokesman said.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aBMXN4DFRge4

[AnneD]

60. Joblessness straining consumer spend?????

now there is an understatement. The folks that have been unemployed for a while are dreaming that Santa fills their stockings with food. This is just a guess but I raid the cafeteria after breakfast and lunch for left over food-yogurt, milk, cereal, and fruit for kids that come in hungry from not eating at home. The last 6 weeks have been awful-very little left over. I went through all my crackers and resorted to buying peanut butter crackers at Costco for my kids that miss breakfast. I bought the latest box one week ago and it is now 1/3 gone. Now that is just the kids.

We have been seeing more acting out by the kids. Instead of decking the halls they are decking each other. They are hunger, mad, and they are lashing out. I make light but the need is real. I just totaled things up and I have donated more than $450 to help with just food at the school in the last month. This is over and above what I tithe. I have never seen so much need, ever!

If you happen to be out there and are just now experiencing a lay off, radically cut you spending and hoard as much of your money as you can. Folks are not finding jobs so quickly. I find it worse now than what I went through in the 8o's. If it doesn't feed, cloth, or shelter you it is a want not a need and can be cut from your budget. Pay the minimum on things to preserve your cash. The more radical you cut your expenses early in the game-the longer you can stay afloat.

[Ghost Dog]

62. I hear you, Anne DeLay. I wonder how many do?

Christmas is not about "consuming (shopping)", after all, it is about love, and about sharing what you have with family, friends, and those most in need.

http://www.online-literature.com/hans_christian_andersen/981/

[AnneD]

77. Thanks GD.....

That was always one of my fav HCA stories, as politically incorrect a child's story as ever there was. In fact you seldom see it.

[Ghost Dog]

79. Certainly sticks in the mind, though... Now that I think about it,

I guess it first came to me

courtesy of the BBC.

I'd recommend passing it on to ALL of our/your kids.

[Dr.Phool]

66. Back in the '80s, at least Ray-gun gave us cheese.

You might want to try Dollar General for those snack. I usually buy a box of peanut butter crackers and stuff for snacks when traveling. I hate to stop on a trip, and the snacks only cost a buck.

[DemReadingDU]

70. yeh, cheese

We got Land o'Lakes cheese, 5 pound block. It was very good. We also got canned goods, and a large bottle of honey. Spouse's union Ironworker jobs had totally dried up. I wasn't working because of our 2 toddlers and was trying to finish up college. We only had 1 car too. We were using loose change to buy bananas. Yeh it was tough, but we made it thru. I see tough times coming again, only worse because there are fewer factory and construction jobs to sustain our middle class.
:(

[Tansy_Gold]

73. And butter too. We got butter

maybe a pound or two.

I remember that there were complaints from "farmers" or spokespeople representing alleged farm lobbies or something. They said it would hurt their current sales. Then someone pointed out that most of the people getting the cheese and butter wouldn't have been buying it anyway.




TG2012

[DemReadingDU]

75. yeh, butter. 1-lb block

Oh, and the cans all had white labels with black letters. Does the gov still hand out boxes of food like that today? Maybe people just use food stamps instead? And local pantries also try to help people with food and household items. Need to drop by with some donations, as I don't see this economic situation getting better for awhile.

[DemReadingDU]

71. You're a kind lady to get foods for the kids

I'm sure they feel better having something in their tummies.

[AnneD]

78. I can't stand in front of those kids......

knowing I had breakfast and they did not. No one with a conscious could.

[Ghost Dog]

52. Leading Indicators +0.9%; Phil Fed 20.4. Crazy.

... In the report, the bank said that its December new orders index was 6.5, from 14.8, while its shipments index hit 15.3, from 15.7. The inventories index came in at -7.4, after November's -17.3. Hiring improved, with the employment index standing at 6.3, versus -0.5 the month before.

"The employment index is up 21 points since September 2009 and is the first positive reading since May 2008 and the highest since October 2007" Trebing said. He noted much of the improvement is from a smaller share of firms decreasing employment.

Inflation in the Philadelphia Fed's area was mixed, with the prices paid index hitting 33.8, from 14.9, while the prices received index came it at -1.8, after -1.5 the prior month.

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed's district is broadly representative of national factory trends, and as such, the bank's report is viewed as a valuable proxy for coming reports that will detail manufacturing output for December...

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=5d318db1-84e4-4fff-a33d-843cb32685f7

[ozymandius]

5. Oil slips to near $72 as traders eye crude demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to near $72 a barrel Thursday in Asia as investors mulled whether recent signs of recovering crude demand can be sustained next year.
.....

On Wednesday, the contract surged by $1.97 to settle at $72.66 after the Energy Information Administration said that crude supplies and distillate fuels including heating oil dropped by more than analysts expected.

Some analysts are skeptical that demand growth can continue beyond the middle of next year as the impact of massive government stimulus spending begins to ebb.
.....

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil fell 0.84 cent to $1.96 while gasoline fell 0.69 cent to $1.87. Natural gas rose 2.4 cents to $5.49 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. Brian Moynihan to succeed Ken Lewis as BofA CEO

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – Bank of America's new CEO says he doesn't expect to lead a major shift in strategy at the nation's largest bank when he takes over from Ken Lewis on Jan. 1. But with loan losses continuing to mount amid double-digit unemployment rates, it remains to be seen whether investors will embrace staying the course.

Bank of America's board late Wednesday named its 50-year-old consumer and small business banking chief, Brian Moynihan, as president and CEO. The promotion ended a months-long search complicated by pay restrictions imposed by government pay czar Kenneth Feinberg before the bank repaid $45 billion of federal bailout loans needed to prevent its failure over the past year.
.....

As the new CEO, Moynihan faces many daunting tasks. He must juggle regulatory investigations into the bank's 2008 acquisition of Merrill Lynch while trying to repair relationship with regulators and members of Congress who sharply criticized Lewis after the bank required billions in aid. Some of those lawmakers, including Maryland Democrat Rep. Elijah Cummings, had also questioned Moynihan's leadership skills during a hearing on the Merrill takeover.

Moynihan takes over at time when the bank faces continued loan losses in the billions of dollars. It lost more than $2.2 billion in the third quarter as bad debt kept rising as consumers still struggled to pay their bills. Bank of America, which has about 53 million consumer and small business customers, is considered particularly vulnerable to unemployment, which remains at double-digit levels.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091217/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bank_of_america_ceo_13

[54anickel]

22. See, now when it fails they can blame incompetent leadership cuz they couldn't pay the big bucks.

Never mind the fact that his predecessor that caused the cluster-fuck WAS making big bucks and was even more incompetent. :eyes:

[ozymandius]

8. US lawmakers approve jobs package

WASHINGTON (AFP) – As US workers continue to struggle with double-digit unemployment, the House of Representatives narrowly approved a 154-billion-dollar spending bill aimed at creating jobs.

US President Barack Obama's Democratic allies said Wednesday's package, which the Senate will likely not act on until 2010, would aid those looking for work and states facing shortfalls and mulling public sector layoffs.

Lawmakers voted 217-212 for the bill, which includes 48.3 billion dollars in infrastructure investments from highway construction to clean water projects and public housing programs.
.....

The bill also includes provisions toughening controversial "Buy American" provisions that require the use of US-made construction materials for highways and bridges funded with money from a February economic stimulus package.
.....

The legislation includes six-month extensions of unemployment benefits, which had been due to expire at the end of December, as well as a stopgap health insurance program that chiefly benefits the unemployed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091217/ts_alt_afp/usunemploymenteconomyjobspoliticshouse

[ozymandius]

10. Fed moving to exit from unprecedented stimulus

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The Federal Reserve is edging away from massive interventions to prop up the US economy, but a pledge to stick with record-low interest rates shows lingering concerns over the recovery, analysts said.
.....

The Federal Open Market Committee headed by chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged some improvement in economic conditions, notably in the troubled labor market, but indicated this was not enough to shift away from a massive stimulus effort.
......

The FOMC announced that some special programs to help restore credit would expire as scheduled.

It continues the process of pumping over one trillion dollars into financial markets to support the housing sector and other types of credit, but added these programs will be concluded as planned in early 2010.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091217/ts_afp/useconomybankrate

[rfranklin]

11. Fed, Greek worries send dollar rallying

Fed, Greek worries send dollar rallying
By Steve Goldstein & Lisa Twaronite, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- A combination of worries about a tightening Federal Reserve and the ability of Greece to service its debt sent the U.S. dollar rallying to multi-month highs on Thursday.

Thin pre-holiday trading conditions also contributed to volatile moves in markets.

-snip-

The euro (CURR:CUR_EURUSD) tumbled to $1.4365, a fresh three-month low, compared with $1.4527 in late North American trading Wednesday, with losses accelerating after the European unit fell below the $1.4500-level, at which some investors had placed orders intended to limit their losses.

"The sharp sell-off has caught many late euro/U.S. dollar bulls by surprise," Schlossberg said in emailed comments.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-gets-lift-from-sp-covered-bond-move-2009-12-17

[Ghost Dog]

12. European stocks decline, weighed by banks; Euro and Pound on free-fall

Thu, Dec 17 2009, 10:36 GMT FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - European markets are going through losses on the first hours of trade on Thursday, after Moody's downgrades Greece's debt rating, while in Forex markets, Euro and Pound post Fed declines extend through multi-month lows on European session.

Eurostoxx 50 Index declines 0.7%, while the German DAX Index drops 05% and the French CAC Index sheds 0.6%. In the UK, the FTSE Index drops 0.6%.

Risk aversion has hit the markets after the Fed announced its special liquidity facilities will expire on the 1st of February, earlier than expected, and negative sentiment has improved after Moody's downgraded Greece's sovereign debt rate from BBB+ to A-.

On the macroeconomic domain, UK retail sales have declined in November for the first time in the last 6 months; 0.3% down on the month and 3.1% up year on year, against market expectations of a 0.6% monthly increase and a 3.7% advance year on year.

Euro and Pound plunging

GBP/USD retreat from 1.6410 has extended to levels more than 300 pips lower as the pair broke 1.6190/00 support area, to hit a fresh 2-month low at 1.6100 on the back of the unexpected decline on U.K Retail sales.

EUR/USD decline from 1.4590 high on Wednesday, has extended during European session, after an unsuccessful recovery attempt, to a fresh e month low at 1.4350 at the moment of writing.

USD/JPY continues trading on an upward trend after bouncing at 87.30 low on Monday. The pair's retreat from week high at 90.25 has been contained at 89.55 session low and the Dollar bounced up during European session, reaching 90.00 at the moment of writing.

/. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=21fd5823-09f6-431f-b8d7-425e1a546403

[Ghost Dog]

14. Nb: Goldman's Great Euro / Dollar Call!

Goldman's Great Euro / Dollar Call 1 comment
by: Clive Corcoran December 16, 2009 | about: BAC / ERO / GS / JPM

--- see referenced GS Stock Chart (at link below) ---

Over the last few sessions Goldman Sachs (GS) along with JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) have been drifting downwards towards critical levels resulting in a drop in the KBW Banking Index yesterday below its 200 day EMA (more on that issue here).

Several inter-related questions come to mind.

Q1 What has been a coincidental factor during this period when these large trading firms have been declining?

A1 A reasonably serious sell-off in the Eurozone currency which has helped to bring some life into the US dollar which had been looking about as buoyant as a lead balloon until recently.

...

Notice the huge green volume spike on the open in GS which more or less coincided with a comment from the company that it is recommending long EUR/USD positions towards $1.55 in three months to clients. Not surprisingly the euro is now finding a strong bid and the GS shares appear to be breaking out of the downward wedge pattern.

Once again it pays to remember the re-phrased commercial from yesteryear
"Shhh...when Goldman speaks the market listens!"

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/178507-goldman-s-great-euro-dollar-call

[natrat]

33. like a dream come true seeing those fellas squeezed

[Ghost Dog]

40. Whitney Cuts Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Estimates

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Meredith Whitney, the analyst known for correctly predicting Citigroup Inc.’s dividend cut last year, reduced earnings estimates for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley through 2011.

The New York-based analyst, who runs Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, now projects Goldman Sachs will earn $19.57 a share in 2009, $19.65 in 2010 and $20.60 in 2011. Those were reduced from $19.95, $21.73 and $24.04, respectively. The 2011 forecast is 4.2 percent less than the average analyst estimate of $21.51 in a Bloomberg survey.

Morgan Stanley’s projection for 2010 was cut to $2.60 a share from $2.63, while the 2011 forecast was reduced to $2.75 from $3.28. The company is expected to earn $3.30 and $3.75 in the next two years, according to the average estimates.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were the two biggest U.S. securities firms before converting to banks during last year’s financial crisis. While Morgan Stanley returned to profit last quarter for the first time in a year, Goldman Sachs has racked up record earnings in the first nine months of 2009.

Whitney has “neutral” ratings on both stocks. Goldman Sachs shares fell 1.9 percent to $161.88 at 8:12 a.m. in New York. Morgan Stanley lost 1.5 percent to $29.90.

The rationale for Whitney’s shift wasn’t included in the report Bloomberg News obtained.

/. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aViIi0NHUWMQ&pos=5

[Ghost Dog]

74. (You don't imagine GS follows the advice it gives to the punters, do you?)

[ozymandius]

13. Intel Case May Signal Stepped Up Antitrust Enforcement by U.S.

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The government’s case against Intel Corp., accusing the world’s largest computer-chip maker of using monopoly power to stifle competition, may signal that antitrust enforcers under the Obama administration will be more aggressive than their predecessors, lawyers said.

The Federal Trade Commission, led by Jon Leibowitz, who was elevated to serve as the panel’s chairman by President Barack Obama, yesterday filed an administrative complaint saying Intel tried to block “superior” products by rivals and hurt consumer choice.

The complaint by the commission, which enforces antitrust laws along with the Justice Department, sets the stage for the biggest U.S. antitrust case since the Clinton administration sued Microsoft Corp. in 1998.
.....

The FTC in the Intel case seeks to broadly apply a section of federal law designed to protect consumers, said Andrew Gavil, a law professor at Howard University in Washington, in an e- mail. The advantage is that it is easier to prove illegality through that section than under the antitrust law usually relied upon in such cases, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a9.EzAZ3VLC8

---

The list regarding Intel's alleged offenses is staggering in its length and severity.

[ozymandius]

15. U.S. Delays Sale of Citigroup Stake as Shares Sell at Discount

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the last of the four largest U.S. banks to seek funds to exit a taxpayer bailout, raised $17 billion by selling stock for a price so low that the U.S. delayed plans to shrink its one-third stake in the lender.

Citigroup sold 5.4 billion shares at $3.15 apiece, less than the $3.25 the government paid when it acquired its stake in September. The New York-based bank said the Treasury won’t sell any of its shares for at least 90 days.
.....

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the last of the four largest U.S. banks to seek funds to exit a taxpayer bailout, raised $17 billion by selling stock for a price so low that the U.S. delayed plans to shrink its one-third stake in the lender.

Citigroup sold 5.4 billion shares at $3.15 apiece, less than the $3.25 the government paid when it acquired its stake in September. The New York-based bank said the Treasury won’t sell any of its shares for at least 90 days.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZewXQYwKLnk&pos=3

[ozymandius]

19. More analysis from Zero Hedge

So Much For The Taxpayer Profit In Citi: Treasury Shares To Be Offloaded Over 12 Months After Investors Balk At Overpriced Toxic Holdings

It was just a matter of time before the administration's covert plan of rewarding bank execs for massive failure by allowing them to load up their balance sheets with record risk once again, while paying out historic bonuses, blew up in Larry Summers' face. Today's attempt by the government to not only allow the failed Citi management team to pay itself an infinite amount of money more than it deserves for destroying one of America's landmark companies (why the hell is Vikram Pandit still in charge of the Titanic?) but to pretend that it "generated" another taxpayer win by selling off its shares at a profit, was aborted after hours, when Citi could barely find enough interest to sell $17 billion at the embarrassingly low price of $3.15, below that government's cost basis. This will preclude Obama from making a TV appearance tomorrow of how the US taxpayer made even more money by backstopping Moral Hazard. What the US taxpayer however did do, is funnel money straight out of its pocket, into that of Vikram's worthless lackeys.

From the WSJ:

At the expected sale price of $3.15 a share, the U.S. government would have suffered a loss of 10 cents per share on its 7.7 billion-share stake in Citigroup, or about $770 million.

Treasury officials also agreed not to sell the government's shares for at least 90 days. The 90-day lockup is a significant concession because the government previously could sell its Citigroup shares whenever it wanted.
.....

As Citigroup gauged interest in its huge offering, announced Monday, some investors said they were willing to buy shares only if the company extracted an agreement from the Treasury Department to hold off on any future stock sales for at least 90 days, according to people familiar with the matter.

The government now plans to unload its Citigroup stock gradually over the next 12 months, people familiar with the situation said. That is a major shift from the Treasury Department's announcement Monday that it planned to dispose of the shares over six to 12 months.

Ozy here: Why the hell are Geithner and Summers allowed to create anything resembling a plan? They are fuckups of the highest order.

[Po_d Mainiac]

24. The "people's" (ours) shares or Shiti will probably be unloaded

as the stocks skids/crashes.

Dubai will win their suit. C/card defaults will continue to climb. All those HELOC's, that are worth less than a used fruit cake, are still on the balance sheet. :puke:

[Demeter]

25. Pretty Slick if Petty Move for a Zombie

They must think we are all idiots.

Bet it would be cheaper to take current losses and shut it down as a failure than to continue to put up with Citi.

[ozymandius]

16. Maria Cantwell and John McCain are trying to reinstate Glass-Steagall.

Will the US Reinstate Glass Steagall?

.....
Over the past year, we’ve heard some chatter about bringing back the depression era legislation that kept commercial and investing banks separate — so when Wall Street goes bust, it does not freeze Main Street banks — but no one has put details on the table yet.

Cantwell has been aggressive on derivatives; Paul Volcker seems to be stepping up on this issue, so perhaps there is something actually occurring here. (Steny Hoyer in the House is also talking about bringing back Glass-Steagall).
.....

Here are two recent articles:

House Discussing Glass-Steagall Revival, Hoyer Says (Bloomberg)

“The U.S. House is considering reinstituting the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act, which barred bank holding companies from owning other financial companies, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said.

A renewal of the 1933 law “is certainly under discussion” by House members, Hoyer told reporters in Washington today. The Glass-Steagall law was repealed in 1999 to help pave the way for the formation of Citigroup Inc. by the $46 billion merger of Citicorp and Travelers Group.”

And this:

Cantwell/McCain: An Odd Post-Crash Couple (Newsweek)

“John McCain lost the 2008 presidential election because of the financial crisis—at least that’s what his chief strategist, Steve Schmidt, suggested. “We were three points ahead on Sept. 15 when the stock market crashed. And then the election was over,” Schmidt said in a postmortem earlier this year. McCain was tarred with the regulatory failures of the Bush years, and it didn’t help that he had been a longtime acolyte of the Senate’s dean of deregulation, Phil Gramm, who once derided Americans as “a nation of whiners.” McCain also seemed to have few new ideas of his own about how to address the financial panic.

The link above yields more information. This is certainly a hopeful sign.

[ozymandius]

17. October International Capital Flows

In October, foreigners purchased $43.4 billion of domestic securities, a decline of $12 billion from the month before. This was offset by $22.7 billion of foreign purchases by US residents, for a net capital inflow of $20.7 billion. The bulk of foreign purchases was conducted by private investors ($28.8 billion) with the balance of $14.6 billion by foreign official institutions. Segregated by product, foreigners purchased $38.8 billion in Treasurys ($15 billion official, 23.9 billion private), sold $5.6 billion in MBS/Agencies ($4.1 billion sold by privates and $1.5 billion sold by banks), sold $0.5 billion in corporate bonds, and purchased $10.6 billion in stocks, mostly by private entities. The most notable result was that the big three traditional purchasers (China, Japan, UK) were, for the first time in 2009, net sellers of Bonds and Bills, with a $74 billion decline MoM, to a net sale of $29.5 billion in October.

As expected, an LTM analysis of TIC indicates why the Fed is still critical in maintaining a visible bid under the MBS market. In the latest twelve months, foreigners purchased $33 billion in Treasuries, sold $4 billion in corporate bonds, even as Americans have bought a more than offsetting $92 billion in foreign bonds indicating the thirst for fixed income will not be satisfied no matter how deranged Cramer's lunatic ramblings become, purchased a whopping $123 billion in stocks and sold $81 billion in Agencies. As Calculated Risk points out take out the Fed, and you will still have buyers at the right price. Of course if the right price is 20% lower than the current price, maybe having no buyers at all would be preferable.
.....

The big picture is that international inflows continue slowing down and the traditional big 3 purchasers in fact were net pukers of US holdings, with $30 billion in monthly sales by the traditional big purchasers. Agencies/MBS just can't catch a break: Japan sold $7.6 billion, China $1.6 billion and Carribean countries selling $1.3 billion. The only notable agency buyers were the UK ($2 bn), South Korea ($2 bn) and Hong Kong ($1 bn). In three months, when MBS/Agency QE ends the bottom will fall out of the mortgage market.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/october-international-capital-flows

[tclambert]

18. Is this the Bernanke appreciation thread? Time's Person of the Year.

Do I have to say I'm kidding? I'm eagerly awaiting the reactions the day after Time's peculiar announcement.

In possibly related news, they say a large explosion rocked southern Arizona yesterday evening. The crater was centered in Apache Junction near the home of a recently announced presidential candidate.

[ozymandius]

20. Heh! Indeedy.

When I heard the news yesterday - I could immediately think of at least a dozen heads exploding.

For future reference to all reading this: consider this as the Eternal Bernanke Depreciation Thread.

[tclambert]

21. But seriously,

when Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, I thought it was something of an exercise in wishful thinking, or simple delight that he wasn't the idiot who preceded him in office who started two endless wars, fabricated the pretext for one out of thin air.

Time's award isn't like that, though. Bernanke is the same guy who was in charge of the Fed when the economic crisis started. He's a Republican appointed by Bush in 2006, and was chairman of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers. One could argue that he was one of the people most responsible for the economic crisis. At the very least, he missed many, many opportunities to DO SOMETHING to avert the crisis.

Hmm, maybe Time doesn't mean Person of the Year to mean BEST person of the year. Maybe they mean most important for good or bad, most influential, or, the word they used multiple times, the person who "mattered" most.

[Tansy_Gold]

23. I didn't even light the grill!

The only craters in my yard are where the dogs have been digging.

Yeah, Time really has outdone itself, hasn't it. Bernanke, architect of implosion, POTY. Should be potty of the year.

I think Monty Python should reunite for a skit based on buying a derivative. . . . . .


And now I must get back to the paid work. I've been at it for an hour and have accomplished. . . . . nothing.



TG2012

[Demeter]

26. 14F Out There This Morning

Tonight's Marketplace segment on NPR will feature the AnnArbor.Com bemoaning its total failure to win the hearts and minds of the greater Ann Arbor readership. Had a comment on the route list this morning--customer stopping subscription because the paper's "gone too far to the right wing"...maybe it's a clue?

One of the few papers that makes me feel stupider after reading it, and I depend on it to pay bills. Go figure. It's said, Nobody ever went broke underestimating the US consumer--but this might be the exception.

[Roland99]

30. Bundle up! I thought it was chilly here when I woke up and it was in the 60s

;-)

[Tansy_Gold]

31. Chilly here at 49, but should be in the low 70s by afternoon

The dogs like it cool, unless it gets too cool and then Chiquita shivers. She has no underfur like the others.

I've been out every morning and every evening and haven't seen a SINGLE meteor.

Believe it or not, AJ has two local papers. One is "canned," part of string of small town "independent" papers. The other is truly local, and the editor is pretty liberal. Of course, he has to cater to the AJ mentality, which can sometimes be pretty wingnutty.

Our big neighbor to the west, Maricopa County, has its share of fun with Sheriff Joe, but we here in Pinal could have the makings of a new one in Paul Babeu. I'll keep you posted.


TG2012

[Roland99]

35. You got a slogan yet for 2012?

:)

[Tansy_Gold]

36. WYSIWYG

Or, alternatively, The Hippies Were Right



TG2012

[Roland99]

39. oooo...I like the 2nd one!

:-)

You could run on the Anti-Smoke and Mirrors Party!

[Tansy_Gold]

43. Oh, I LIKE that

I don't smoke, and at my age I'm not too fond of mirrors, either!



TG2012

[Roland99]

44. ....

:spray:



(added a couple extra dots up above to make it easier to click. :) )

[Ghost Dog]

51. Don't listen to Roland. WYSIWYG is perfect.

One could explain everything within that frame, including how come so often WYSINWYG.

[AnneD]

61. Tansy....

I will be driving out to LA to see my daughter and will make a stop at Mom's in Gilbert, Az. PM me. I will be taking I10 to be on the safe side.

Edited to add...we need a 'focus group 'meeting. I think anti smoke and mirrors campaign works for me too. Any good pie places to eat? We need a background for a photo op. Or maybe a good mexican food place-that is the up and coming voter demographic. Seriously-pm me. I'm proud to be your running mate. Just as long as Dr. Phool keeps those incriminating photos out of the news we are OK.

[Ghost Dog]

63. (I'll run interference over here)

for you.

[Dr.Phool]

65. You're in luck.

Sara ate most of the photo's. I still have some juicy ones.

I can be bought off. Saaay.....Sec of Defense?

[Ghost Dog]

67. What, not Transport & Communications, Dr?

... Still no hope of high-speed intelligent super-eco public transport

and free press

over there?

[Tansy_Gold]

68. Photos? Photos? Nobody said nothin' about no photos!!!

If I don't do mirrors, why do you think I'd do freakin' PHOTOs????

:P


As for the incriminating photos, they're so old no one would recognize me.


TG2012

[Dr.Phool]

69. Ever hear of Photoshop?

I have. But I don't know how to use it.

But, I can do this!

[Ghost Dog]

72. Sheeit. Ah just knew I shouldn't have re-watched that there directors cut,

stopping an' starting, rewindin' and pausing to think, while she's away,

of that movie...

It's hard to sleep now, and this here machine it surely requires a re-boot, gettin' so slow an' sticky. So let's do it.

G'night y'all.

(An' that's just the movies).

[Demeter]

27. It was thought to be a meteorite.

EVENTS IN NEBRASKA: "At 9 p.m. Central Time on Dec. 16th, a very bright meteor lit up the completely overcast sky like lightning in southeast Nebraska," reports Trooper Jerry Chab of the Nebraska State Patrol. "It flashed for approximately 2 seconds and was followed by ground shaking, which prompted many calls by the public to law enforcement in a three county wide area." The USGS says there was a magnitude 3.5 earthquake near Auburn, Nebraska, at 8:53 pm Wednesday night, about the same time and place as the fireball. Coincidence? Readers in Nebraska with photos or eyewitness accounts are encouraged to submit a report.

http://spaceweather.com/

[Hugin]

46. I saw a much smaller one near me at about the same time...

It was off to the east and came in straight down lasting less than a second.

Very bright... Must've been mostly metal.

[Hugin]

48. Report from the USGS on the Nebraska event.

Check it out... http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/us2009qhaf.php

[Ghost Dog]

53. Hmmm. Very central. No damage, huh?

Good shot!

[Hugin]

54. Not many people around there... n/t

[Ghost Dog]

47. I just don't get you people. You see a light in the sky, maybe feel the earth move,

nothing else, normality, peace and quiet, fine.

Then... Why call the cops?

BTW: The hippies were right: what's natural, not (over-leveraged) skunk.



:silly: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgzABzKmAA8 (Blues Harp Jamming)

[Hugin]

49. Ah, I can remember a time when after seeing lights in the sky and the earth move...

the thing to do was roll over and fall asleep.

:rofl:

Must be the aging of the population Ghost Dog.

GET.OFF.MY.GRASS! :lol:

[Ghost Dog]

50. Yeah. (Here's a nice one):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh6kzjYEWJM&feature=related

[natrat]

56. Times Person of the Year does not necesarily confer goodness i think

[Po_d Mainiac]

28. Gulf petro-powers to launch currency

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6819136/Gulf-petro-powers-to-launch-currency-in-latest-threat-to-dollar-hegemony.html

The move will give the hyper-rich club of oil exporters a petro-currency of their own, greatly increasing their influence in the global exchange and capital markets and potentially displacing the US dollar as the pricing currency for oil contracts. Between them they amount to regional superpower with a GDP of $1.2 trillion (£739bn), some 40pc of the world’s proven oil reserves, and financial clout equal to that of China.
<snip>
The Gulf states remain divided over the wisdom of anchoring their economies to the US dollar. The Gulf currency – dubbed “Gulfo” – is likely to track a global exchange basket and may ultimately float as a regional reserve currency in its own right. “The US dollar has failed. We need to delink,” said Nahed Taher, chief executive of Bahrain’s Gulf One Investment Bank.
.................
This should be a non story. But, the "gulfo" could get immediate recognition if the oil states decide it shall be the method of payment. As a fiat currency it has less of a chance than a Persian Gulf ski slope.

Things could get interesting if they back it with hard currency.

[UpInArms]

29. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.744 Change +0.749 (+0.96%)


US Dollar Surges Sharply Higher After Fed Policy Announcement

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2009-12-17-0752-US_Dollar_Surges_Sharply_Higher.html

Key Overnight Developments

• US Dollar Surges Sharply Higher After Fed Policy Announcement
• NZ Business and Consumer Sentiment Prove Disappointing
• Euro Drops to Three-Month Low, British Pound to Challenge 1.62


Critical Levels



The Euro sank to a three month low below 1.44 in overnight trading a broad upswing in the US Dollar (see below). The British Pound played catch-up to the single currency just ahead of the opening bell in London, accelerating lower and poised to test 1.62. We remain short EURUSD at 1.4881 and short GBPUSD at 1.6648.

Asia Session Highlights



The US Dollar surged sharply higher as Asian markets reacted to a decidedly upbeat interest rate announcement from the US Federal Reserve, setting off a wave of stop orders that pushed EURUSD below the 1.44 mark for the first time since August. Most significantly, Ben Bernanke and company said “deterioration in the labor market is abating,” which traders took as validation of the boost to priced-in Fed rate hike expectations over recent weeks. The US central bank is widely expected to look at the jobless rate as the key gauge for timing a reversal of its ultra-loose monetary stance. A Credit Suisse gauge of the priced-in yield forecast now shows the markets are betting on 89 basis points in rate hikes over the coming year, up 37 basis points or 71% since the beginning of the month. The shift in expectations was set off by sharply better outcomes for November’s nonfarm payrolls and retail sales reports.

...more...

Oil, Gold Reverse Lower as US Dollar Surges on Fed Rates Outlook

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/daily/2009-12-17-1241-Oil__Gold_Reverse_Lower_as.html

Oil and gold prices reversed course lower after a brief bullish correction as the US Dollar pushed sharply higher, spurred on by the Fed's comments saying that labor market turmoil was receding that many traders took to mean rate hikes were not far behind.

Commodities - Energy

Oil Turns Lower as US Dollar Soars, Jobless Claims on Tap Ahead

Crude Oil (WTI)       $72.09       -$0.57       -0.78%

After correcting higher from the recent swing bottom below $69, crude turned back downward just ahead of $74 and is now approaching support at the intersection of a horizontal resistance-turned-support level and the 50-period moving average at $71.46. A breakdown will expose the $70 level once again. The Fed set off the Dollar on a major rally after it said that the deterioration in labor market was abating, which many have seen as a pre-requisite for a reversal of the US central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy. Another decline in weekly jobless claims would help to reinforce the greenback into New York trading, helping to extend the up move and pressure crude lower, so traders will be watching that release with great interest.



Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver Reverse Course Lower After Brief Correction

Gold       $1120.40       -$17.50       -1.54% 

Gold broke down out of a rising channel that guided the correction higher from support a double bottom at $1111.55 as the US dollar surged higher after the Fed helped bolster speculation that Ben Bernanke and company may be closer than previously thought to raising interest rates. Prices have been very sensitive to changes in the US yield outlook (as measured by the spread between Dec’2010 and Mar’2010 fed funds futures) and further downside is likely ahead if jobless claims decline as expected, encouraging the correction in the market’s perception of US monetary policy. Continued bearish momentum aims for a return to $1111.55.

Silver        $17.40       -$0.31       -1.72% 

Silver prices are testing support at a rising trend line established from the low on 12/11, with a break lower to target horizontal support at $17.15. As with gold, the US yield outlook is the key fundamental factor and so the upcoming jobless claims figure is the likely near-term catalyst to watch.



...more...

[Festivito]

32. Debt: 12/15/2009 12,134,970,556,795.04 (UP 63,689,684,876.64) (Tue)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days -- repeat. For today, it jumps up big. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,769,018,438,498.81 + 4,365,952,118,296.23
UP 58,799,676,220.27 + UP 4,890,008,656.37

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,210,718 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,372.32.
A family of three owes $118,116.96. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,521,076,381.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,782,122,679.40.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,483,240,011.94.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 52 reports in 76 days of FY2010 averaging 4.33B$ per report, 2.96B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,132 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/15/2009 12,134,970,556,795.04 BHO (UP 1,508,093,507,881.96 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,225,141,553,283.30 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,081,271,933,531.64 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********

157,984,906,171.00 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4186375&mesg_id=4186495

[Festivito]

76. Debt: 12/16/2009 12,129,073,186,050.29 (DOWN 5,897,370,744.75) (Wed)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Up big, then, today, a little up and down. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,769,366,691,556.14 + 4,359,706,494,494.15
UP 348,253,057.33 + DOWN 6,245,623,802.08

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,219,358 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,352.08.
A family of three owes $118,056.24. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,444,272,716.37.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,259,133,325.34.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 53 reports in 77 days of FY2010 averaging 4.14B$ per report, 2.85B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,131 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/16/2009 12,129,073,186,050.29 BHO (UP 1,502,196,137,137.21 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,219,244,182,538.50 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,039,274,371,773.41 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********

158,010,823,089.09 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4188110&mesg_id=4188227

[DemReadingDU]

37. Federal Reserve issued Order to Cease and Desist against Credit Suisse

12/16/09 The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced the issuance of a consent Order to Cease and Desist against Credit Suisse AG, Zurich, Switzerland. The Order requires that Credit Suisse improve its program for compliance with U.S. economic sanctions requirements on a global basis.

The Swiss Financial Markets Supervisory Authority, the home country supervisor of Credit Suisse, has agreed to assist the Federal Reserve in the implementation and supervision of the Order.
more...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/enforcement/20091216a.htm

and

12/16/09 Credit Suisse to Pay $536 Million in U.S. Settlement

Credit Suisse AG agreed to pay $536 million to settle claims the bank helped process payments that let Iran and other nations avoid government sanctions and gain access to U.S. financial markets.

The Zurich-based bank entered into a deferred prosecution agreement in settling with the U.S. Justice Department, which said Credit Suisse made more than $1.6 billion in illegal transactions involving Iran, Sudan, Burma, Cuba and Libya from the mid-1990s through 2006, according to a court document filed in Washington today. The agreement also settles claims by New York prosecutors, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department, the bank said today in a statement.

“The settlement we announce today ensures that Credit Suisse will not flout the law again for its own financial gain,” U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said today at a news conference in Washington. “We will be vigilant in enforcing this settlement and in pursuing other institutions and individuals who engage in similar illegal conduct.”

Credit Suisse, Lloyds TSB Bank Plc and eight other banks have been investigated for “stripping” wire transfer information to conceal illegal money transfers. Credit Suisse altered its dollar payments by removing Iranian names and references from messages and using code words for sanctioned entities when trading in U.S. securities, according to court documents. The bank also instructed Iranian customers on how to format dollar-denominated transactions to evade detection.
more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aG1wyIpbsqCU


more from Denninger
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1744-There-Is-Never-Only-One...-Credit-Suisse.html

[Roland99]

38. Hovnanian shares taking a bath today. Down 9%

I remember him being on CNBC not too terribly long ago touting the bottom of the real estate market and happy days were surely ahead of us!



:rofl:

[DemReadingDU]

42. American Kabuki: U.S. Lets Big Banks Repay TARP for All the Wrong Reasons

click link for video

12/17/09 American Kabuki: U.S. Lets Big Banks Repay TARP for All the Wrong Reasons

Citigroup and Wells Fargo each raised billions this week to repay their TARP funds, the last of the major banks to do so.

On the surface, this seems like unalloyed good news for fans of free-market capitalism: The banks were able to raise huge sums from private investors and will now be able to operate as fully private organizations, most notably when it comes to compensation.

Moreover, "we are now on track to reduce TARP bank investments by more than 75%, while earning a healthy profit on that commitment," Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said in a statement. More than $185 billion of the $245 billion of TARP funds invested in banks is now slated to be returned to taxpayers, according to Treasury.

In other words, everybody wins: Taxpayers! The government! And the banks, including their employees and investors!

But, alas, there are few true "everybody wins!" scenarios in modern America and things are rarely what they appear on first blush -- more especially when both Washington and Wall Street are involved.

"I don't like government stakes in banks, but I don't think these banks are nearly out of the woods," says Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics.

Actions by the Fed, including its policy of zero interest rates (held over for another "extended period" on Wednesday!) and purchases of $2 trillion of securities, are enabling the big banks to avoid having to take big write-downs on their toxic securities. But Whalen thinks this is just delaying the inevitable and says increasing loan losses will be a major theme of 2010, as discussed in more detail in a subsequent segment.

By allowing the banks to repay TARP, the government will now have less control over their operations -- even when the White House and Treasury are simultaneously putting more pressure on the banks to lend. So why is this happening? Who is conducting this Kabuki theater of the absurd?

The answer Whalen says, is politics: "Obama wants to declare victory and take the money from TARP and use it for jobs," he says. "And Tim Geithner wants to declare victory and be able to declare the TARP a success."

At best, the TARP repayments are "a distraction and, at worst, a negative development," Whalen declares. (Whalen has no positions in bank stocks; IRA has a "negative" outlook on Citi and Bank of America and a "neutral" one on Wells Fargo.)

If Whalen is right, and I suspect he is, two obvious questions arise:

* Are these banks going to need another bailout? Considering The WSJ reports the four-largest U.S. banks now control 56% of the financial sector's assets, up from 35% in 2000 -- meaning the "too big to fail" banks are even bigger now -- somebody will come to their rescue if and when trouble surfaces, Whalen predicts. "Either investors will face more dilution when new investors get invited to the party or you're going to see the government support them again."
* If they're not really healthy, who is buying all the stock and debt being issued by these banks? The "really big" institutional investors are eager to buy the offerings because there are few banks big enough and liquid enough for them to invest in, Whalen says, taking another shot at Ben Bernanke. "When you print a lot of paper dollars and fund managers are looking to get returns on that paper money, you essentially drive investors into the least solvent, least financially stable large-caps." (Wells sold about $12.25 billion of shares on Tuesday. Citi priced $17 billion of equity and another $3.5 billion of convertible debt Wednesday evening; the shares were priced at a 20% discount to where the stock was trading on Monday and weak demand prompted the U.S. government to delay its planned sale of $5 billion shares of Citi stock, Reuters reports.)

Meanwhile, as U.S. policymaker tout the newfound "health" of the post-TARP banking system and investors hope future profitability will make the current dilution worthwhile, Whalen notes some very savvy foreign investors are heading in the other direction.

The Kuwait Investment Authority recently sold its $3 billion stake in Citigroup and The FT reports is considering changing its business relationship with the bank, including transferring its funds on deposit at Citi. Meanwhile, The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is trying to abort an agreement to buy $7.5 billion of Citigroup stock, claiming the bank misled it about the investment.

"If you look around the world - more risk averse investors don't like to see the U.S. government withdrawing its support for the banks quite yet," Whalen says. "We have so badly hurt our credibility with the very investors we need to purchase our debt to continue to do business with U.S. banks. When we are seen to be hastily and undisciplined way allowing our banks to just sell equity and withdraw explicit support you're making these people fearful."

One man's meat is another man's poison, as the saying goes.

click link for video
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/american-kabuki-u.s.-lets-big-banks-repay-tarp-for-all-the-wrong-reasons-393780.html?tickers=C,BAC,WFC,XLF,JPM,GS,MS&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

[Demeter]

64. Too Bad if Zombie Banks Need Another Bailout Later

They won't be getting it. You can make book on that.

[MARALE]

45. Good day all!

I just wanted to say that even though I don't have time to post much anymore, I come almost everyday and read this wonderful discussion and really appreciate all that everyone does! Thanks so much from the cold midwest!!!

[Ghost Dog]

57. .

THE THOUGHT-FOX

I imagine this midnight moment’s forest:
Something else is alive
Beside the clock’s loneliness
And this blank page where my fingers move.


Through the window I see no star:
Something more near
Though deeper within darkness
Is entering the loneliness:

Cold, delicately as the dark snow,
A fox’s nose touches twig, leaf;
Two eyes serve a movement, that now
And again now, and now, and now

Sets neat prints into the snow
Between trees, and warily a lame
Shadow lags by stump and in hollow
Of a body that is bold to come

Across clearings, an eye,
A widening deepening greenness,
Brilliantly, concentratedly,
Coming about its own business

Till, with a sudden sharp hot stink of fox
It enters the dark hole of the head.
The window is starless still; the clock ticks,
The page is printed.

- Ted Hughes

[Ghost Dog]

55. Markets Moving. Could it be that we are seeing...

what happens as those, uh, dedicated followers of fashion (scum) start to close out their year-end books, book their so often untaxed profits and fudge their losses, and take up position for the next phase, are we calling it PHASE II, we all know is to come?

(Edit: I see we even have Shipping News today: the Baltic Dry Index lost 2.8% overnight to 3,376 and has traded lower in 17 out of its last 20 sessions).

12:00 pm : Sellers have redoubled their efforts to send the Dow to a fresh session low and the broader S&P 500 back toward its session low, which stands near the 1098 mark.

The renewed selling pressure comes as the Dollar Index moves to a 1.3% gain, which puts it at a fractionally improved three-month high. The gain by the greenback has sent commodity prices to a 1.3% loss, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index, which has cast an additional weight on the materials sector so that materials stocks trade with a 2.1% loss. DJ30 -98.25 NASDAQ -21.94 SP500 -9.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 696/844/1883 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 742/790 mln/2199

11:30 am : The major indices have managed to pare their losses, but weakness remains widespread. In turn, nine of the 10 major sectors are in the red.

Energy stocks make up the only sector to sport a gain. They have made their way to a fractional gain after they had been down as much as 1%. The move comes even though oil prices have fallen to a fresh session low of $71.60 per barrel, down 1.5%. DJ30 -84.19 NASDAQ -17.20 SP500 -7.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 697/736 mln/1841 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 747/681 mln/2151

11:00 am : Regional banks lagged during the previous two sessions, but have managed to rebound to a 1.5% gain this session. The move is especially impressive since the broader financial sector is currently down with a 0.7% loss.

Within the financial sector, consumer finance stocks (-2.0%), diversified financial services (-1.6%), and investment banks and brokerages (-1.5%) are under the most pressure.

Discover Financial (DFS 15.28, -1.14) is a primary laggard among consumer finance stocks. The company reported this morning that it brought in $0.63 per share, but also said its net charge off rate was 8.43%, which is up 295 basis points from the prior year and up four basis points from the previous quarter.

Citigroup (C 3.22, -0.23) continues to weigh on diversified financial services firms after the company announced lackluster share offering results. Due to the low offer price, the Treasury has opted to delay the sale of its $5 billion of Citigroup shares.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (MS 29.58, -0.76) and Goldman Sachs (GS 162.08, -2.91) have taken their toll on investment banks and brokerages. The pair had their estimates lowered by Meredith Whitney, who has been widely credited with correctly calling the struggles of banks for the past two years.

DJ30 -78.29 NASDAQ -15.21 SP500 -6.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 780/624 mln/1713 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 795/592 mln/2057

10:35 am : The US Dollar Index pushed to a 3-month high this morning, which has weighed on most of the commodity group. Additionally, the stock market opened sharply lower and is sitting just above its session low, which is adding additional weakness to the commodity complex.

January crude oil traded in the red for most of its overnight and morning session. After pushing into positive territory moments ago for just a few minutes, crude is back in the red, currently 1% lower at $71.91 per barrel. January natural gas, on the other hand, has been in positive territory all session. After trading almost sideways all session the energy component began to gain momentum early this morning, rising over 2% higher to session highs of $5.611 per MMBtu. Ahead of this week's inventory data, where consensus is calling for a draw of 178 bcf, natural gas is 2.5% higher at $5.597 per MMBtu. Following the data, which showed a draw of 207 bcf, natural gas spiked to fresh highs of $5.911 per MMBtu and is 7.5% higher at $5.869 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are also taking a hit on the strength in the dollar. February gold and March silver have steadily moved lower this session and are trading just above lows of $1113.80 per ounce and $17.31 per ounce. Gold is currently 1.8% lower at $1115.20 per ounce, while silver is 1.9% lower at $17.36 per ounce.

Separately, in shipping news, the Baltic Dry Index lost 2.8% overnight to 3,376 and has traded lower in 17 out of its last 20 sessions.DJ30 -86.08 NASDAQ -20.99 SP500 -8.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 674/480.5 mln/1781 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 638/489.6 mln/2177

10:00 am : Stocks have rolled over after a failed attempt to trim opening losses. Stocks are now at fresh session lows -- losses remain steepest among materials stocks (-1.5%) and financials (-1.1%).

The stock market's recent descent has steadied, though. The pause comes amid a better-than-expected Philadelphia Fed Index reading of 20.4, up from 16.7 in the previous post. The consensus had called for a reading of 16.0 for the latest reading.

Leading indicators for November increased 0.9%, which is stronger than the 0.7% increase that had been expected and is up from the 0.3% increase that had previously been registered.

Early movers: Trading up -- FUN +23.6%, WNI +15.7%, APWR +10.1%, ADPT +5.8%; Trading down -- GEOY -22.3%, NANO -11.6%, YONG -10.3%, ANDS -9.5%, HOV -9.2%, LYG -8.1%, C -7.8%, EZCH -7.2%, AZK -6.9%, IRE -6.6%, AEM -6.5%, HOG -6.4%, LDK -6.3%DJ30 -79.43 NASDAQ -19.41 SP500 -9.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 643/296 mln/1701 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 482/371 mln/2269

09:45 am : The Dollar Index has eased off of its morning highs, but still sports a sizable gain of 0.9%. Meanwhile, stocks have eased up from their opening lows, but they continue to trade with broad-based losses.

Pressure is stiffest against materials stocks and financial stocks. Both sectors are down 0.8%. Financials are seeing some of the most action within the S&P 500 as trading volume is currently the most active in shares of financial giants Bank of America (BAC 15.22, -0.06) and Citigroup (C 3.20, -0.25). Citigroup recently priced a previously announced common stock offering at $3.15 per share, which is a near 9% discount to its closing price for the previous session. DJ30 -59.40 NASDAQ -10.19 SP500 -6.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 759/165 mln/1498 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 528/275 mln/2164

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update

[reformist]

58. Market doesn't like it when corporate welfare is endangered.

It could be the market is reacting to the fact that the fraud known as "health care reform" has been exposed as the huge gift to the health insurance industry that it actually is....

[Ghost Dog]

59. And also this?

...which, I dunno, only non-US MSM as well as rebels are reporting?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4188339
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7246088