STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 22

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 22, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 21, 2009

Dow... 10,414.14 +85.25 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq... 2,237.66 +25.97 (+1.17%)
S&P 500... 1,114.05 +11.58 (+1.05%)
Gold future... 1,114.05 +11.58 (+1.05%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.67 +0.14 (+3.84%)
30-Year Bond 4.55 +0.10 (+2.25%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Trading, Investing and Speculating
BY TONY ALLISON

Today’s culture seems to have a very short-term perspective on the just about everything. Wall Street focuses on this quarter’s results; Washington’s vision extends only to the next election cycle. The average Joe looks to the coming weekend, or perhaps his next paycheck. As the nation’s attention span appears to shorten further every year, so does its vision of the future. And as investors, it seems more and more people are adopting the behavioral characteristics of the trader.

Looking out at some of the key economic issues directly in front of us we see:

• The oversold US dollar starting to strengthen, as most of the planet has been in the “short the dollar” side of the boat this year.

• Commodities starting to correct as the dollar strengthens, after a big run-up this fall.

• Developing countries like China and Brazil looking ready for a correction.

• The possibility of de-leveraging reasserting itself in 2010.

• These may be valid concerns, but they are more concerns for the trader, not the investor who should be looking ahead years, not days or months.

.....

Debt, Debt and more Debt

There are many market fundamentals that come into play and help set the economic trends we now are experiencing. In my opinion, none are more important than the overwhelming levels of debt in America and around the globe, and the response of the world’s central banks to the current credit crisis.

In 2010 the US government will have a budget deficit of approximately $2 trillion to finance (if you include all the “off budget” items such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan). In addition, there will be $2 trillion more in US sovereign debt coming due that will need to be re-financed. The staggering total for one year: $4 trillion. Where will that money come from and at what interest rate will it be financed?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 GDP - Third Estimate Q3
Briefing.com 2.8%
Consensus 2.8%
Prior 2.8%

08:30 GDP Prices - Third Estimate Q3
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 0.5%

10:00 Existing Home Sales Nov
Briefing.com 5.95M
Consensus 6.25M
Prior 6.10M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

20. GDP revised down to 2.2% rate in third quarter - weaker than the 2.7% rate expected

U.S. 3Q corporate profits up $132.4 bln, or 10.8%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 3Q final sales up 1.5% vs. 2.5% previously
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 3Q residential investment up 18.9% rate
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 3Q business investment falls 5.9%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 3Q consumer spending rises 2.8% annual rate
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 3Q GDP weaker than 2.7% annual rate expected
8:30 a.m. Today

[UpInArms]

21. more info

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-revised-down-to-22-rate-in-third-quarter-2009-12-22

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in two years during the third quarter, but the revised annual growth rate of 2.2% was much slower than initially reported, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday.

U.S. real gross domestic product increased for the first time since the spring of 2008, boosted by higher consumer spending (especially on autos), a rebound in investments in homes, a slower pace of inventory reduction, more exports, and robust government spending, the government said.

Before growing in the June-to-September quarter, the U.S. economy had shrunk for four straight quarters for the first time since the Great Depression.

The economy had contracted 0.7% in the second quarter after plunging 6.4% in the first quarter and 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The figures are seasonally adjusted and adjusted for price changes.

Real GDP has fallen 2.6% in the past year.

Most economists believe the worst recession in generations ended during the third quarter, even as unemployment rose. Production and sales increased, while real incomes slipped lower.

Consumer spending, boosted by the government's cash-for-clunkers program, was the main engine of growth in the third quarter.

Home building contributed to growth for the first time in nearly four years.

Business investment declined as a small increase in capital spending on equipment and software was overwhelmed by another large drop in investments in structures.

Foreign trade subtracted from growth in the quarter. A big jump in exports was offset by an even larger rise in imports.

Third-quarter GDP was originally estimated two months ago at 3.5% annualized and was revised down to 2.8% in last month's estimate. The revisions come from more complete data than was available at the first and second estimates. The 2.2% revised growth rate is the strongest since the third quarter of 2007, just before the recession began.

...more...

[Demeter]

25. Color Me Not Surprised

They lie with impunity. Now more than ever. Their models are broken, but nobody fixes them. Their data is corrupt, but nobody goes back to the sources.

And then their political plans are shoddy, ill-considered, and predatory, and when they go boom, "nobody could have expected..."

I am REALLY grumpy today.

[Tansy_Gold]

27. THERE YOU ARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ozymandius]

35. more from Bob Swern at DailyKos

link to diary here

In the past hour, the Bureau of Economic Analysis posted a second downward revision to the widely-trumpeted third quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers, this time to 2.2%. Additionally, per the fine print in this announcement, it has been determined that 1.45% of the 2.2% increase in GDP is being attributed to the Cash-for-Clunkers, or CARS, program, indicating that only .75% of the increase in GDP, at most, was due to non-government-supported activity. The conventional wisdom among economists is that we must have GDP growth of 2.5%-2.75% to enable job growth.

He goes on to list information from Calculated Risk and BEA:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2009 ... GDP was revised down from the advance estimated of 3.5% to the preliminary estimate of 2.8%, and now to 2.2%.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were revised down to 2.8% from 2.9%.

And investment in nonresidential structures was revised down to -18.4% from -15.1% (aka falling off a cliff).

And here's more from his summary:

There has been ongoing, overly optimistic (IMHO) commentary regarding jobs growth into the first quarter of 2010; however, it ignores the annual Bureau of Labor Statistics' Benchmark Revision, which most project--based upon reports to date--will add roughly 800,000 additional lost jobs to figures to date. Most recently, I discussed that in this diary: "0.2% Jobless Rate Drop Belies Q1 '10 Negative Revision."

Yes, we have a long way to go before we're anywhere near out of the woods, IMHO. And, what we need is a massive re-focus upon jobs programs from our federal government, as noted by Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz, just yesterday: "'Significant' Chance the Economy Will Contract in 2010."

There's much more good information at the topmost link.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hangs near $74 amid OPEC supply decision

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hung near $74 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders anticipated OPEC will leave crude production levels unchanged at the group's meeting later in the day.
.....

Investors will be looking for signs OPEC plans to boost compliance with existing output levels. As the price of oil has more than doubled from a year ago, some OPEC members have increasingly exceeded their quotas, analysts say.

"A 'no change' as far as production quotas are concerned appears virtually assured," Galena Illinois-based Ritterbusch and Associates said in a report. "However, comments from the various oil ministers and language within the communique are likely to suggest a strong effort toward increased compliance."

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil was steady at $1.95 while gasoline rose 0.5 cent to $1.87. Natural gas rose 6.7 cents to $5.74 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Banks with political ties got bailouts, study shows

They really had to do a study about this? - ozy

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. banks that spent more money on lobbying were more likely to get government bailout money, according to a study released on Monday.

Banks whose executives served on Federal Reserve boards were more likely to receive government bailout funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to the study from Ran Duchin and Denis Sosyura, professors at the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business.

Banks with headquarters in the district of a U.S. House of Representatives member who serves on a committee or subcommittee relating to TARP also received more funds.
.....

Banks with an executive who sat on the board of a Federal Reserve Bank were 31 percent more likely to get bailouts through TARP's Capital Purchase Program, the study showed. Banks with ties to a finance committee member were 26 percent more likely to get capital purchase program funds.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091221/bs_nm/us_banks_study

[Demeter]

26. Bring on the Indictments, Then!

We got some real data.

[ozymandius]

5. For One AIG Employee, Treasury Ruling Means Extra $4.3 Million

One highly paid employee of American International Group Inc. won't be leaving the company as planned before year's end, prompting the U.S. Treasury to revise a recent decision on pay limitations for the employee.

In a letter to AIG dated Monday, Treasury pay czar Kenneth Feinberg said he will allow AIG to pay the employee—among the company's 25 highest compensated— about $4.3 million in incentive payments on top of an annual $450,000 salary.
.....

In a separate letter to Citigroup, Treasury modified its pay ruling to allow Citigroup to pay expatriate compensation to five instead of four employees, as had been written.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703344704574610534173127794.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[rfranklin]

6. They really deserve it....

They've done so much.

[Tansy_Gold]

16. Dalziel

[Tansy_Gold]

28. It's the stooopid

Of course I know that was John Tenniel. Blame it on being up at 5:00 and not really awake.

the Queen of Hearts ordering "Off with her head!"


Duh, sorry, folks. My bad. My stooopid.



TG

[dixiegrrrrl]

38. So the pay czar thing was just window dressing. Figures.

[ozymandius]

7. Marijuana-Reeking Tour Bus, Red Ferrari Are FDIC’s Crisis Booty (worth a laugh)

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The financial crisis that popped the real estate bubble and pushed U.S. bank failures to a 17-year high landed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. a rapper’s tour bus that reeked of marijuana.
.....

Worley Auctioneers, based in Maineville, Ohio, has the FDIC to thank for the bus, not to mention a red 2001 Ferrari, an eight-foot palm tree and stacks of unwanted office furniture -- the detritus of 140 banks closed by the agency this year. Worley Auctioneers, Rick Levin & Associates and Tranzon Asset Strategies, the three firms hired by the FDIC to sell furnishings from shuttered branches and warehouses stuffed with repossessed collateral, are having a banner year.
.....

New Frontier, which cost the insurance fund $670 million, also left the FDIC with a 1,000-horsepower drag-racing Chevrolet pickup truck, and almost 1,000 milking cows. Sales from assets of other failed banks have included armored trucks, industrial equipment and Thomas H. Benton lithographs. The palm tree fetched $105.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aUtZYWxFdgcI&pos=14

[ozymandius]

8. Taxpayers Help Goldman Reach Height of Profit in New Skyscraper

...
The building was a bargain -- and not just because the final cost is expected to be $200 million less than the $2.3 billion price the company had estimated when construction began in November 2005. Goldman Sachs also benefited from the government’s determination to avoid losing jobs in lower Manhattan after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Building a new headquarters cater-cornered to where the World Trade Center once stood qualified the firm to sell $1 billion of tax-free Liberty Bonds and get about $49 million of job-grant funds, tax exemptions and energy discounts. Henry Paulson, then Goldman Sachs’s chief executive officer, threatened to abandon the project after delays in addressing his concerns about safety. To keep the plan on track, state and city officials raised the bond ceiling to $1.65 billion and added $66 million in benefits. The interest expense on the financing is about $175 million less over 30 years than if the company had issued corporate debt at the time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
.....

Goldman Sachs, which set a Wall Street profit record of $11.6 billion in 2007 and may have earned $11.4 billion this year, according to the average estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, won new and larger concessions from taxpayers in 2008. This time it was the threat of a financial meltdown that prompted the U.S. government, with Paulson as Treasury secretary, and the Federal Reserve to supply an unprecedented amount of aid to firms deemed critical to the financial system, including Goldman Sachs.

The 140-year-old company received $10 billion in capital, guarantees on about $30 billion of debt and the ability to borrow cheaply from the Fed. The Fed’s bailout of American International Group Inc., and its decision to pay the insurer’s counterparties in full, funneled an additional $12.9 billion to Goldman Sachs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aaLwI2SKYQJg&pos=15

---

How do public officials look at themselves in the mirror? This information is out in the open for all to see. From this, one could summarize this relationship as one in which Goldman Sachs, somehow, holds a gun to the government's head.

[Tansy_Gold]

9. Y'know, after reading this, I may just quit

reading DU altogether.

I mean, it's scary enough out in GD- or GDP-land, but this kind of shit is just demoralizing.

Seriously. What's wrong with us as a nation that we allow this shit to happen? What's wrong with us? It's not just Kansas any more. There's something wrong with ALL of us.

I'm depressed.




Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

29. What's wrong with us?

Most are just too complacent, can't be bothered to pay attention. And it's the holiday season. Until people are hit where it truly hurts, their wallets, then they will start to wake up. But some people would then use credit cards to buy essentials. When people have no job, no unemployment compensation, no income nor savings nor retirement nor SS nor medicare, no credit cards, no health insurance, no house/apartment, no car, no food pantries nor food stamps, and are hungry. Then they will do something, because they will have nothing further to lose.

[Tansy_Gold]

31. "Then they will do something......."

And it will not be pretty, will it?


:cry:


Oh, well.

[DemReadingDU]

34. I really think that is a long way to go

So we should enjoy the holidays. As spouse says...Don't worry about it. There isn't anything we can do anyway.

[ozymandius]

10. Greece’s Credit Rating Cut to A2 by Moody’s on Debt

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Greece had its credit rating cut one step to A2 by Moody’s Investors Service, sparking a rally in its bonds as concern eased that a steeper downgrade would make its debt ineligible as collateral at the European Central Bank.

“There is some relief that it’s only one notch,” said Peter Chatwell, London-based fixed-income strategist at Calyon, Credit Agricole SA’s investment-banking arm. Moody’s “talks quite positively about Greece’s liquidity situation.”

The downgrade puts Greece’s rating five steps above non- investment grade and two higher than the levels assigned to it by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. The ranking is the lowest among the 16 euro-member states and the same as that of Poland and Botswana. Moody’s said in a statement today the new rating carries a “negative” outlook, meaning it’s more inclined to cut it again than leave it unchanged or raise it.
.....

The yield on the Greek 10-year bond tumbled as much as 23 basis points, the most since Dec. 16, and was 22 basis points lower at 5.73 percent as of 11:00 a.m. in London, from 6 percent yesterday. The yield on the two-year note fell 10 basis points to 3.41 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGGVyWXuDZ6E&pos=1

[fasttense]

12. So why doesn't Greece just pay off Moody, just like the banks did?

Seems to me that I remember the banks getting triple A ratings for sub-prime, sliced and diced financial instruments that help destroy our economy. So, why doesn't Greece do the same thing all those too big to fail banks did when they bought up all those toxic financial instruments?

Just pay off the rating agency and you're all set.

[ozymandius]

15. Honestly.

Lehman was not downgraded until the morning it collapsed. Greece could learn a lesson from that.

[ozymandius]

17. Speaking of Lehman: the company is paying bonuses.

Collapsed Lehman pays out big bonuses

A judge overseeing Lehman’s US bankruptcy in New York last week approved an extra $50m (€35m) in bonus pay-outs to some 230 derivatives traders working to unwind the dead bank’s $10bn portfolio. The pay-outs come as bankers in the US and Europe face public anger over probable multimillion-dollar bonuses at the end of this year and, in Britain and France, additional taxes on the pay-outs.

Steven Pearson, a partner at PwC and one of the four joint administrators for the dead bank’s European arm, said the higher UK pay-outs reflected demand for the skills he needed and Lehman’s unique situation.
....

Mr Pearson said there were benefits in retaining staff with extensive knowledge of where the bodies are buriedLehman. Any bonuses, he said, were linked to the administrators’ focus on maximising the money returned to creditors.
.....

Those Lehman staff remaining are working to untangle and value the millions of trades on Lehman’s books, some of which are still technically “live” today and potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars to either side of the deal.

more at link...

[ozymandius]

19. Moody's Downgrades Greece To A2, Prostitutes Itself Again

From Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge:

The rating agency that has gotten selling out down to an art, just downgraded Greece from A1 to A2, yet kept it two notches higher than where the country is now fairly rated by Fitch and S&P, thereby preventing the country from collapsing into a liquidity crisis. By taking this action, Moody's has once again proven its utter worthlessness, by pretending to be objective while at the same time keeping an artificially inflated rating high enough to prevent the unforeseen spillover effects from Greece's inability to use Treasury's as ECB collateral: the definitive first domino to fall in Europe, about which we wrote 3 days ago.

What follows is a play-by-play dissection of the Moody's press release.

[ozymandius]

11. 2009’s Worst Disclosures Buried in Footnotes

Around this time each year, my friend Michelle Leder at footnoted tries to come up with the worst SEC disclosures of the past 4 quarters.

She asks her readers to cast their votes and this year, and that tradition continues: She is asking her readers to vote on the stinkiest disclosures of 2009.

Despite –or perhaps because — the economy was (shall we call it) “soft,” there was plenty of material to choose from; So much so that it was actually difficult to winnow down the list to just five. But here’s what Michelle came up with (with the links to the actual posts at The Big Picture):

• Martha Stewart getting a $3 million retention payment for remaining at Martha Stewart Omnimedia (MSO).

• InfoGroup saying the cost of the yacht for former CEO Vinod Gupta was really $873,078 instead of the zero that it had previously reported.

• Freddie Mac, which took more than $50 billion in money from the government to stay afloat, giving its new CFO a $1.95 million signing bonus in addition to other goodies.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/2009s-worst-footnote-filings-with-the-sec/

[Festivito]

13. Debt: 12/18/2009 12,097,983,161,366.65 (UP 284,378,822.72) (Fri)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. These jumps make the linear projection jump as well, still it seems to project that Obama will spend less than Bush's 2008 fiscal year, and far less than the 2009 FY Bush left Obama to follow. Eat that smarmy lie-passing Republican fools. )

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,733,584,412,748.27 + 4,364,398,748,618.38
UP 710,260,980.35 + DOWN 425,882,157.63

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,236,638 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,249.01.
A family of three owes $117,747.03. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,080,929,993.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,259,348,661.76.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 55 reports in 79 days of FY2010 averaging 3.42B$ per report, 2.38B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,129 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/18/2009 12,097,983,161,366.65 BHO (UP 1,471,106,112,453.57 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,188,154,157,854.90 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,869,319,843,253.65 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********

117,990,377,461.94 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4193513&mesg_id=4193821

[Festivito]

39. Debt: 12/21/2009 12,099,243,026,724.56 (UP 1,259,865,357.91) (Mon)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,733,428,598,990.61 + 4,365,814,427,733.95
DOWN 155,813,757.66 + UP 1,415,679,115.57

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,262,558 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,249.8.
A family of three owes $117,749.39. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 4,222,918,309.97.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,956,042,816.98.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,860,686,597.07.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 56 reports in 82 days of FY2010 averaging 3.38B$ per report, 2.31B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,126 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/21/2009 12,099,243,026,724.56 BHO (UP 1,472,365,977,811.48 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,189,414,023,212.80 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,843,123,396,008.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon

21,041,411,879.36 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4194790&mesg_id=4194831

[ozymandius]

14. Deep Thoughts at the U.S. Treasury -or- How Clueless Minions Think T.G. Is Da Bomb

From Bruce Krasting:

I was down in Washington on a business trip. That ended at four and I headed for a bar...

Sure enough, at five the place fills up. It’s a young crowd. Good looking. Well dressed. This looked like an Ivy League group. I was thinking that they could be DOJ, possibly IRS (they looked too happy, but who knows). They could have been Treasury folks; the headquarters is not far off. Anyway, they had two drinks gossiped for and hour and left. I stayed.

At one point I happened to look under the now empty stool next to me. Some folded up papers. Being the nosey S.O.B. that I am, I picked them up and took a look. Bingo!

I am just guessing, but these initials could stand for Geithner, Volker, Summers, Goolsbee and Romer. Of course they could stand for anything. I will leave it to you to draw any conclusions that might be appropriate after a look at this....

Link to Found Memo

[DemReadingDU]

41. Very interesting memo!

Lots of comments in red. Now I need to read the memo.
:)

[ozymandius]

18. Leadership, Obama Style, and the Looming Losses in 2010

Drew Westen
....
We have seen the same pattern of pretty speeches followed by empty exhortations on issue after issue. The president has, on more than one occasion, gone to Wall Street or called in its titans (who have often just ignored him and failed to show up) to exhort them to be nice to the people they're foreclosing at record rates, yet he has done virtually nothing for those people. His key program for preventing foreclosures is helping 4 percent of those "lucky" enough to get into it, not the 75 percent he promised, and many of the others are having their homes auctioned out from right under them because of some provisions in the fine print. One in four homeowners is under water and one in six is in danger of foreclosure. Why we're giving money to banks instead of two-year loans -- using the model of student loans -- to homeowners to pay their mortgages (on which they don't have to pay interest or principal for two years, while requiring their banks to renegotiate their interest rates in return for saving the banks from "toxic assets") is something the average person doesn't understand. And frankly, I don't understand it, either. I thought I voted Democratic in the last election.

Same with the credit card companies. Great speech about the fine print. Then the rates tripled.

The president has exhorted the banks, who are getting zero-interest money, to give more of it to small businesses. But they have no incentives to do that. There are too many high-yield, reasonably low risk investments to make with zero-interest federal loans. I wouldn't mind a few billion to play around with right now myself, and I can't say I'd start with some guy who wants to start his own heating and air company, or an existing small business owner who is hanging on by his fingernails in tough economic times. I'd put my money in something like emerging markets, or maybe Canada. (Have you noticed how well Canadian equities are doing lately?) Or perhaps Chinese wind turbines. (Oh, we're investing there already with stimulus funds.)
.....

The problem with the president's strategic team is that they don't understand the difference between compromising on policy and compromising on core values. When it comes to policies, listen all you want to the Stones: "You can't always get what you want" (although it would be nice if the administration tried sometime). But on issues of principle -- like allowing regressive abortion amendments to be tacked onto a health care reform bill -- get some stones. Make your case to the American people, make it evocatively, and draw the line in the sand. That's how you earn people's respect. That's the only thing that will bring Independents back.

[DemReadingDU]

22. Today's musical parody: Malay Ride

From the 2009 VERSUS Holiday Songbook!

A musical parody of the traditional song "Sleigh Ride"
video and text
http://versusplus.com/malayride.html


For the complete VERSUS Holiday Songbook, the complete collection of VERSUS economy parodies and the complete collection of VERSUS parodies, visit us at http://versusplus.com

[Hugin]

32. Great site.

:blottingtear:

Did you check out, "Oh, CRE"?

[DemReadingDU]

33. yeh, another good one

posted yesterday...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4193513&mesg_id=4193801
:)

[UpInArms]

23. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.026 Change -0.011 (-0.01%)

US Dollar Rebound to Accelerate Against Major Currencies

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2009-12-22-1143-US_Dollar_Rebound_to_Accelerate.html

EURUSD: Stay Short as Prices Surpass Initial Profit Target
USDJPY: Bullish Correction Continues to Unfold
GBPUSD: Aim Below 1.60 as Prices Hit Second Target
USDCAD: Ascending Triangle Hints at Bullish Breakout Ahead
AUDUSD: Short Position Taken as Channel Support Gives Way
NZDUSD: Downside Favored After Range Support Breach

...more...

Euro Halts Five-Day Decline, British Pound Slips Below 200-Day SMA as 3Q GDP Fails to Impress

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/us_open/2009-12-22-1127-Euro_Halts_Five_Day_Decline__British.html

The British Pound weakened for the second-day and slipped below the 200-Day SMA (1.6014) to reach a fresh monthly low of 1.5998, and the currency is likely to hold the broad range from earlier this year as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. As a result, we may see the GBP/USD face increased volatility following the Bank of England minutes due out on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT however, thin market conditions are likely to produce choppy price action throughout the major currencies as investors go off-line ahead of the Christmas Holiday.

Meanwhile, the final 3Q GDP reading for the U.K. showed the economy contracted 0.2% from the second quarter amid an initial forecast for a 0.3% drop in the growth rate, while the annualized rate slipped 5.1% from the previous year after tumbling 5.8% during the three-months through June. The breakdown of the report showed household consumption increased 0.1%, with business investments surging 2.2% during the three-months through September, while government spending increased 0.3% after rising 0.7% in the second quarter. At the same time, the annual rate of private saving increased to 8.6% during the same period to mark the highest reading since the first quarter of 1998, and households may keep a lid on spending throughout the first-half of the following year as they continue to face a weakening labor market paired with tightening credit conditions. Moreover, the current account deficit unexpectedly widened to GBP 4.7B in the third quarter from a revised 4.4B during the previous three-month period,

The Euro halted the five-day decline against the greenback and bounced back to reach a high of 1.4335 on Tuesday, and the single-currency looks to be carving out a near-term bottom this week as price action continues to hold above the 200-Day SMA at 1.4194. Nevertheless, as the pair remains oversold, with the RSI holding at 27, we may see the pair continue to retrace the decline from the previous week, but a break below the 200-Day is likely to expose the September low at 1.4177. Meanwhile, the economic docket showed consumer confidence in Germany unexpectedly weakened in January, with the GfK survey pulling back to 3.3 from a revised reading of 3.6 in the previous month, and conditions may get worse over the coming months as policy makers continue to see a risk for a protracted recovery in the euro-region.

U.S. dollar price action was mixed overnight, with the USD/JPY rallying for the sixth day to reach a fresh monthly high of 91.49, and the reserve currency is likely to face increased volatility going into the North American trade as investors weigh the prospects for a sustainable recovery in the world’s largest economy. The final 3Q GDP reading is expected to show the growth rate expanding at an annual rate of 2.8% after contracting 0.7% in the second-quarter, while personal consumption is forecasted to increase 2.9% tumbling 0.9% during the three-months through June. In addition, existing home sales are projected to rise 2.5% in November after jumping 10.1% in the previous month, and the slew of data is likely to encourage an improved outlook for future growth as the economy emerges from the worst recession since the post-war period.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

24. WHERE'S DEMETER???????????????? n/t

[Demeter]

42. I've Been Out Trying to Pump Up the Economy

Never saw so much stuff I didn't want to buy in my life--and I was in the bookstore!

Took my Sis to the bank so she could open a Totally Free account--for which they paid us $75.

Go figure. Now she can cash checks here. She's leaving for home tonight...trying to beat the weather and the traffic.

We worked like slaves, ate like queens, and drank like bar flies (well, little old lady barflies, maybe).


There's so much more to do, though. Only got through half of the house and almost none of the paper piles. My Mountain of Mending is down to a molehile, which I hope to cut in half tomorrow...

[DemReadingDU]

30. Marc Faber - US vs China: Watch the power game play out

12/21/09 US vs China: Watch the power game play out

Dr Faber, in the September issue of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report you said that the future will be a total disaster with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it. Three months later do you still stand by that assessment or did you underestimate the power of the governments to shore up the global economy?

Well, I think we had this huge intervention in the world but if you look at the cause of the financial crisis. The cause of the financial crisis was excessive credit growth and essentially the private sector has reacted rationally. After 2008, the private sector has reduced its leverage, in other words, the consumer credit is declining and business credit is also declining but this is being offset by a huge expansion of government credit. So total credit as a percent of the economy in the US is still growing. Now officially, the debt to GDP is 375%, it was 186% when the US went into depression after 1929. In other words, we start with a much higher debt level. In 1929 we did not have social security and we did not have Medicare and Medicaid and if you add this unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Medicaid and if you add Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, that have been taken over by the government, we are talking about the debt to GDP of over 600%. In my opinion, in the long run, this is not sustainable. They will have to print money and the fiscal deficits will go up and the problem will be that one day when interest rates go up for whatever reason and may be next year or in three years time, the interest payments on the government debt will balloon and in say seven years time, the interest payments on the US government debt will be between 35% to 50% of tax revenues and when you are in a huge mess.

click for full transcript, and 3 videos
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Stocks/Views/Recommendations/US-vs-China-Watch-the-power-game-play-out/articleshow/5356262.cms?curpg=1


click for Yahoo TechTicker video
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/marc-faber-avoid-the-u.s.-disaster-buy-wheat-sugar-natural-gas-and-japan-in-2010-395425.html?tickers=^dji,^gspc,dia,spy,^n225&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=16db6df269b284aa2c7f4ae1e7dde7ac&ccode=rd

[Dr.Phool]

36. toon- TAE

(snip)
Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism reacts, and wants more. She thinks we should know why no research was done into all the parties involved, why they could receive money without being scrutinized before, during and after the bail-out process. Yves provides a well-written overview of Goldman Sachs actions that involved parts of the AIG funds. Still, calling for investigations into the matter, with or without emails, and more than a year after the fact, largely misses the crucial points here. Which takes us back to my buddy Krugman.

The AIG decisions were made in Washington. There was another party on the throne, but what difference did that make? The decision-making problems don’t vanish when another party comes to power. That much, we can all agree by now, has been made exceedingly obvious by the Bush to Obama transfer. The reason behind this is that the real rulers stayed in place while the White House changed occupants. The US simply isn't governed by its elected politicians. Or at least not by their ideas and convictions, if, when and where these differ from those of their donors.

If a politician can be elected only when (s)he has enough money (i.e. millions of dollars, and for a president hundreds of millions) to run a campaign, then the resulting policies will be dictated by those who donate that money. And since one dollar equals one vote, the grandma who ate mac and cheese for a week to donate $10 to Obama has no say, while a financial institution that gave $10 million does.

Both parties partake of the exact same largesse, so claiming that one is to blame and the other is not is nonsense. The system itself is broken. And you can't fix it with a bit more openness here or a few published emails there. You can only fix it by separating politics and business, by taking a big old axe and cruelly cutting clear through the umbilical chords so carefully and profitably attended to on K Street. Anything else is mere make believe. Nobody in Washington seeks the truth behind all this. Everybody seeks a story that makes them look good for their voters.

Arnold Kling describes it like this in The Harvard-Goldman Filter:

As to libertarians, certainly in a world with no deposit insurance or government guarantees I could argue against government interference in the structure of private banks. But banks are not private in this country. They are quasi-public institutions <..>.

There is a synergy between big banks and big government. Jefferson and Jackson were right. So breaking up big banks fits in with breaking up big government. Which is why we won't see the Progressive elite breaking up big banks.



The trouble in Denmark on Capitol Hill runs much deeper than a vote or an idea. The country is governed by a few hundred enlightened souls who are all for sale, or they wouldn't be where they are. And if a soul does get lost on the Hill and tries to follow his or her conscience, the rest of them will drown it out.

This is not a new issue, though it has rapidly grown more poignant in the past 3 decades. What is new today is that the dysfunctional system has to deal with a crisis that cannot be dealt with as previous crises were: with more growth.

And without growth, what wealth there is has to be redivided, or society as a whole becomes untenable. And yes, redivided it is, but not in a way that would warrant society's continued viability. On the contrary, those who always had much will have more, while those who had least will now have nothing. And I’ve said it before, it's not a political statement to say that if a society doesn't provide a minimum for its poorest, that society must of necessity fail.

Read all the emails you want, investigate all the crooked deals made in the bail-outs. It won’t matter one iota. Once growth is gone, you need to prevent the rich from lobbying themselves into ever and even more riches. because these will have to come from the mouths of the desolate.

Or you can choose not to, but then your society is over and done with. Now, I don’t really think people will think I’m right. When most read that the noughties were the worst decade for stocks ever, as in since the 1820's, almost 200 years, they’ll think: well, it should go up then, shouldn't it?

Who among them concludes that growth may be gone, even if they know it can’t last forever? It was inevitable that they'd still be expecting -nay, even seeing- growth when the world around them is shrinking.


PS: The Financial Times headline "Bank of Japan says it will not tolerate deflation" inspired a good friend to come up with this quote about King Canute, about a millenium or so old. It would be a valuable lesson for many, not in the least the economists and assorted financial types who overestimate governmental powers and good will of many sorts and stripes.

"Henry of Huntingdon, the 12th-century chronicler, tells how Cnut set his throne by the sea shore and commanded the tide to halt and not wet his feet and robes; but the tide failed to stop.

According to Henry, Cnut leapt backwards and said "Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings, for there is none worthy of the name, but He whom heaven, earth, and sea obey by eternal laws." He then hung his gold crown on a crucifix, and never wore it again."

[TalkingDog]

37. Will the US repeat the great mistake of 1937?

Heading: Economy/Opinion/History

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/will-the-u-s-repeat-the-great-mistake-of-1937/19287174/

Supply-side economics, which preaches low taxes (especially for upper income groups), high defense spending and light regulation, has dominated U.S. public policy and American life since President Ronald Reagan's 1980 election. However, it is not clear that supply-side is the best economic strategy or that one can draw a straight line from tax cuts to prosperity for all. On the contrary, as the financial crisis has demonstrated, supply-side economics -- and the market absolutism associated with it -- is flawed at best, and economic history, far from moving in a straight line, tends to run in cycles, as periods of less government activism are followed by periods of more government activism.

In late 2008, the United States entered a period in which more government intervention was paired with an emphasis on collective action. It doesn't take an MBA from Harvard to realize that the U.S. government has pumped more than $23 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus into the economy and financial system to save it from collapse. Further, it isn't hard to see that the crisis occurred because market absolutism -- the theory that the free market, unbridled and left to its own natural forces, is the solution to every economic, social and political problem -- failed. Just as orthodox communism was finally and completely discredited 20 years ago, market absolutism has been discredited as an economic philosophy.

Admittedly, there are counter-arguments to the necessity of government intervention. But as history and economic performance will likely demonstrate, the Fed's extraordinary actions, led by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in conjunction with the bank bailout and related fiscal stimulus supports, prevented the U.S. financial system from veering into the abyss. In particular, the Fed's actions, in coordination with the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and other central banks, prevented a global financial collapse that would have plunged the U.S. and global economies into a deeper GDP hole than the 2008-2009 recession.

[Joe Chi Minh]

40. It's normal for those right-wingers unfortunate enough not be among the chosen

beneficiaries to be envious of the swagmen.