STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 28

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 28, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 28, 2009

Dow... 10,547.08 +26.98 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq... 2,291.08 +5.39 (+0.24%)
S&P 500... 1,127.78 +1.30 (+0.12%)
Gold future... 1,108 +3.00 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.84 +0.05 (+1.19%)
30-Year Bond 4.69 +0.02 (+0.34%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

---

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---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Legitimate Price Discovery vs. Fradulent Price Determination
BY ROB KIRBY

Year’s end is a time when folks customarily take stock of things and analyze or review what has transpired over the past 12 months. With that in mind, let us stop and consider what has transpired in the global silver market for the ‘front half’ of the preceding 12 months:

-see annotated chart-

This data was highlighted in Silver Market Updates by Jason Hommel. Everyone should understand that THE VAST MAJORITY of the 100 billion increase in silver derivatives depicted above was principally done by TWO financial institutions. From the data set above, we can clearly see how silver derivatives were employed – ramping up from 103 billion at Dec. 2007 to 190 billion at June 2008 to produce the water-fall price effect in price illustrated below:

-more charts-

.
.
.
Clearly, in the case of silver, futures (derivatives) are no longer being used to “discover” price – they are being used to fraudulently DETERMINE or MANDATE PRICE.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Po_d Mainiac]

36. I've always liked silver...But not the paper stuff

A) It has a long history as a hard currency.
B) As barter it is much easier to use in a transaction, esp. pre-1964 US coins
C) It has industrial applications
D) There is a finite supply, and most likely the majority of it has been found

It would be very interesting to see the outcome if everyone that has possession of the metal via a third party, decided to withdraw their holdings.

[Tansy_Gold]

2. Nothing posted but the front page and already 2 recs!!

Can you tell some of us have been WAITING for you, Ozy?

:hi:

[ozymandius]

4. I often wonder if there is a queue to get into the new SMW.

Occasionally - this is obvious. I picture a couple of people waiting outside, stamping their feet in the cold morning air. Of course, I feel bad on those days when I am late posting the thread.

Thanks! :hi:

[Tansy_Gold]

7. Well, it's unusual for me because I'm two (sometimes three)

time zones behind you.

But hey, you've earned a few sleepin' in mornings, so don't you worry about us poor impatient, pathetic creatures hanging on your every post. . . .

:rofl:


Tansy Gold, workin' on the stuff she actually gets paid for and happy to have SMW as a source of information and occasional amusement

[ozymandius]

10. I try to find entertaining material.

This would be a very dry, dull place (and probably sink like a stone) if it were just jargon and figures. Clearly I am not the only one who understands this, as you do too. Evidence to this claim can be found in something I posted yesterday. Some may say it was in ba-a-a-ad taste. I do hope some found it amusing in a Woody Allen/Gene Wilder humor vein.

[Tansy_Gold]

13. That was funny. Maybe bad taste, but bad taste can sometimes be

hilarious.

Really bad taste is my post #12, but I'm not retracting it. At least not yet. . . .



Tansy Gold, who tried to make a play on the "exit tool" term. . . . .

[UpInArms]

16. d-a-a-d-d-y?

[DemReadingDU]

18. haha, I saw that

:rofl:

[Roland99]

21. Ewe rabble rouser, ewe.

[dixiegrrrrl]

54. 'bout time you showed to open the SMW..it was 24 degrees this am!!!!

Bunch of us freezing our butts off waiting for ya...where's the coffee?????
Garrummph...harrumph.....mumble .....

edit for spelling and crankiness...


:rofl: :rofl:

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

09:00 CaseShiller 20 City Oct
Briefing.com -7.60%
Consensus -7.10%
Prior -9.36%

10:00 Consumer Confidence Dec
Briefing.com 54.5
Consensus 53.0
Prior 49.5

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

46. Case-Shiller House Price Graphs for October

From Calculated Risk:

S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for October this morning.

This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). This is the Seasonally Adjusted data - some sites report the NSA data.
.....

The Composite 10 is off 6.4% from October 2008.

The Composite 20 is off 7.3% from October 2008.

This is still a significant YoY decline in prices.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/12/case-shiller-house-price-graphs-for.html

[ozymandius]

50. Consumer confidence in 2nd straight boost

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key measure of consumer confidence rose for a second straight month in December, a research group said Tuesday, with outlook for the next few months reaching a 2-year high.

The Conference Board, a New York-based research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 52.9 in December, from an upwardly revised 50.6 in November.

Economists were expecting the index to climb to 53, according to a Briefing.com consensus survey. The figure, which is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households, is closely watched because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

Still, the overall index remains at historically low levels and is lower than the it was in August at 54.5. A reading above 90 indicates the economy is stable, and 100 or above indicates strong growth.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/29/news/economy/consumer_confidence/

[ozymandius]

51. Briefing.com numbers

09:00 Case-Shiller 20 City Oct
Actual -7.28%
Briefing.com -7.60%
Consensus -7.10%
Prior -9.27%
Revised from -9.36%

10:00 Consumer Confidence Dec
Actual 52.9
Briefing.com 54.5
Consensus 53.0
Prior 50.6
Revised from 49.5

[ozymandius]

5. Oil down to near $78 a barrel after big surge

Oil prices fell to near $78 a barrel Tuesday as the dollar recovered against the British pound and the yen. Expectations of falling U.S. stockpiles and gains on stock markets helped contain the retreat.
....

Futures contracts for oil, natural gas and heating oil have all become more expensive this month as snow storms blanketed parts of the U.S. and a sharp drop in supplies of crude and other fuels surprised traders.

Analysts say oil could rise above $80 before the end of the year if U.S. inventories later this week show a drop in stockpiles, which would suggest improving demand in the world's largest economy. It would be the fourth consecutive week decline in U.S. inventories.

Some analysts, however, said that the end-of-year thin trading was distorting the market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. AP: Ponzi collapses nearly quadrupled in '09

.....

In all, more than 150 Ponzi schemes collapsed in 2009, compared to about 40 in 2008, according to the AP's examination of criminal cases at all U.S. attorneys' offices and the FBI, as well as criminal and civil actions taken by state prosecutors and regulators at both the federal and state levels.

The 2009 scams ranged in size from a few hundred thousand dollars to the $7 billion bogus international banking empire authorities say jailed financier Allen Stanford orchestrated, as well as the $1.2 billion scheme they say was operated by disbarred Florida lawyer Scott Rothstein. Both have pleaded not guilty.

While enforcement efforts have ramped up — in large part because of the discovery of Madoff's fraud, estimated at $21 billion to $50 billion — the main reason so many Ponzi schemes have come to light is clear.

"The financial meltdown has resulted in the exposure of numerous fraudulent schemes that otherwise might have gone undetected for a longer period of time," said Lanny Breuer, assistant attorney general for the U.S. Justice Department's criminal division.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091229/ap_on_bi_ge/us_ponzi_nation

[Tansy_Gold]

11. Wouldn't you say the collapses of the various "Ponzi" schemes

like Madoff's and Stanford's were CAUSED BY rather than merely "revealed by" the general economic collapse?

I mean, seriously, the various Ponzi (no quotes) schemes still being run by GS and BofA, Fannie and Freddie, etc., are quite obviously revealed but just haven't fallen apart yet because they're getting taxpayer infusions.

And in that sense, I'm beginning to wonder more and more about the so-called "health care reform" package and its mandated policy buys in terms of being additional taxpayer infusions into the whole FIRE Ponzi. My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that those of us who don't have insurance now will be required to buy it and pay for it for three to four years but won't be able to use it. Now, it was always my experience when working for an employer who offered health insurance that you had a certain probation period before you were eligible for coverage, but once you started paying into it, you had coverage available. There was no period of paying ahead of time -- not more than a month at most maybe -- but not getting anything for it.

With regards to SS (OASDI), the idea is to pay into it FOR RETIREMENT or for the protection of yourself and/or family in the event of the loss of the worker's ability to earn. And the Medicare contribution is, again, in anticipation of future needs. That's why the percentages are relatively low. But the benefits are available -- survivors', disability -- if and when needed.

This whole thing with the health insurance mandates seems like virtually a no-strings hand out to the insurance companies. People are forced to pay, but get nothing in return. And while Al Franken may have argued very passionately that there are provisions of (that version of) the bill that do take effect immediately or at least before 2013, there remains the fact that the insurance companies will be raking in billions upon billions upon billions of premium dollars with no requirement to pay out any of it in benefits at all.

Anyway, that's my morning rant.


TG

[ozymandius]

15. That's just it.

I direct your attention to this post that is currently at the top of the greatest threads list. It is a marvelous screed against "corporatism". In the middle of the document is this poignant gem:

When the Government begins to "partner" with business instead of regulating it you have a problem. You have the ability of the government to pick winners and losers. What happened this past year with the TARP payments and the subsequent tax rule rewrites by Tim Geithner's crew to pay them back was an example of the government picking a winner and a loser. The winner being large banking firms that were enormously irresponsible and losers being smaller banks.

There are some services that the Government will have difficulty providing, however, I'm a proponent of when the Government does something, it uses Government employees. I do not like it when services are outsourced to a third party. If you need to know why, look at K-Street or contractors in Iraq.

Do you remember the famous three words that were uttered in relation to the privatization of Social Security campaign from five years ago? Those were "DUMB PUBLIC MONEY" - uttered by some executive as the reason why he wanted trillions of dollars of mandatorily extracted private capital to boost his stock prices. There would be no need to perform at the level expected of those who would choose to invest their money with that company. Dumb Public Money would forever float the stock price and replenish expense accounts because the government would be a business partner.

As you say, and I agree, the whole idea of the government partnering with private (and publicly traded) health insurance companies is a scheme that Charles Ponzi would have loved.

[ozymandius]

8. Fed pushes for new exit tool

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday pressed ahead toward the creation of a new mechanism it says could be used to withdraw money from the banking system once policymakers decide to tighten monetary policy.

The program, called the term deposit facility, would allow financial institutions to earn interest on loans of longer maturities to the central bank. The Fed already pays interest on banks' overnight reserves.

"Term deposits would be one of several tools that the Federal Reserve could employ to drain reserves to support the effective implementation of monetary policy," the Fed said in a statement that was the Fed's first detailed proposal for the new facility.

Rates on term loans, whose maturity would likely range between one and six months and would not exceed a year, could be determined via competitive bidding at auction, the Fed said. They would be available only to financial institutions eligible for federal deposit insurance, not the general public. Once lent to the central bank, the money cannot be withdrawn.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091228/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_deposits

---

"Term Deposits"? Looks like they mean the Fed would hold CDs.

[ozymandius]

9. Fed exit strategy: Let banks set up CDs

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Monday proposed allowing banks to set up the equivalent of certificates of deposit at the central bank, a move that would help the Fed mop up money pumped into the economy and prevent inflation from taking off later.

Under the proposal, the Fed would offer so-called "term deposits" that would pay interest. Doing so would provide banks with another incentive to park their money at the Fed, rather than having it flow back into the economy.

The proposal comes as no surprise. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials have repeatedly said the creation of so-called "term deposits" — essentially the equivalent of CDs for banks — would be one of several tools the Fed could use to drain money from the economy when the time is right.
.....

The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to $2.2 trillion, reflecting the creation of lending programs intended to ease the financial crisis. That's more than double the pre-crisis level. The Fed will need to mop up that money or it could trigger inflation down the road.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091228/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_exit_strategy

[Tansy_Gold]

12. IS THIS TOTAL INSANITY????????????

I thought the money was pumped into the banks so it WOULD flow into the economy, and the problem now is that they aren't FLOWING it enough????????


Have I completely lost my mind? Am I going senile or something? Or is this just plain totally nuts?


Sometimes I think Obama is more naked than emperor booooosh but the people are so mesmerized by his dazzling smile and intelligent-sounding speechifying that they haven't looked below his neck to the rapacious hands and (forgive the imagery) swollen organ(s) ready to screw us all six ways to Sunday.


Tansy Gold, reaching for the blood pressure pills. . . . . .

[ozymandius]

17. This is infuriating.

Totally. This is to benefit the banks. No one else. When did we ever see any residual benefit from this? Never. This merely staved off nationalization. It is nuts just like a feedback loop is nuts and ultimately destructive to the mechanism that contains it.

[DemReadingDU]

19. We are so screwed

:(

[Dr.Phool]

28. Such a deal.

I borrow money from you at 0% interest. Then I deposit it with you, and you repay me, with interest. Rock solid 100% investment.

Is there any hint or shred of evidence that they're not running the treasury and the Fed for their own self interest?

They're not even trying to disguise it anymore.

FRSP for the new year instead of bonuses.

[hamerfan]

34. What does FRSP stand for?

Hi all,
Sorry to be a lame-o on my acronyms. I just recently figured out ITYS but have no idea what FRSP is. Thanks for any help.
hamerfan

[Tansy_Gold]

35. Someone, I think Demeter, has a great graphic

FRSP -- French Revolution Severance Packages.

Since the US currently has a wealth divide some magnitude greater than what separated the sans-culottes from the aristos. . . . . . . .



Tansy Gold, who is quite an accomplished knitter

[Po_d Mainiac]

37. A sight I'd like to see

Mdme. Gold happily saving the names for posterity's sake.......Be more than honored to donate a few skeins to the cause. Have any particular colors in mind?

[hamerfan]

38. Thank you, Tansy!

I likes the idea.
The mental imagery it conjures up for me is very entertaining. Who needs cable TV? :rofl:

[Demeter]

56. You Rang? (In my best Lurch Impersonation)

The only time I can do Lurch properly is when the vocal cords are so swollen and inflamed that I can sing bass, several octaves below my range. Fortunately, it hasn't happened this winter--yet.

[MilesColtrane]

48. Why not set up "dollar suicide booths" all over the nation?

You put a dollar into the kiosk.

As it gets shredded you are treated to a short video of your favorite politician, banker, or CEO being virtually pied, dunked, roasted, or hung,

on edit: Maybe not a good idea. There has to be some currency left in circulation.

[Tansy_Gold]

53. There's always Monopoly, Game of Life, other paper money

Not much more phoney than what's in my wallet or yours. . . . .

[Demeter]

57. What a Cheat!

I was afraid my suicide would ensue. Better yet, how about an actual aristo taking the long walk off the short pire?

[MilesColtrane]

58. Or, burn 'em at the stake using dollars as fuel.

Has the advantage of tightening the money supply and improving the society.

[Demeter]

59. Synergy Is Always Good!

[UpInArms]

14. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.357 Change -0.276 (-0.36%)

USD Graphic Rewind

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/usd_graphic_rewind/2009-12-29-0607-USD_Graphic_Rewind.html



...more...

Oil, Metals to Continue to Diverge on US Economic Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2009-12-29-1021-Oil__Metals_to_Continue_to.html

Oil prices are set to continue to move in the opposite direction from those of gold and silver as US data remains upbeat, boosting the outlook for crude demand and US interest rates.

Commodities – Energy
Oil May Push to $80 as US Economic Data Continues to Improve

Crude Oil (WTI)       $78.96       +$0.19       +0.24%

Oil is testing the $79 level after breaking out of a rising channel that had guided prices higher from the swing bottom below $70 set earlier this month. Continued bullish momentum will target the psychologically significant $80 level. The bulls may once again find their catalysts in improving US economic data, with tomorrow’s calendar set to bring the sixth consecutive monthly increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index as well as a three-month high in Consumer Confidence. Both releases stand to support continued gains, boosting the outlook for economic recovery of the world’s largest crude consumer.



Commodities – Metals
Gold, Silver May Extend Losses on US Rates Outlook

Gold       $1104.38       -$2.93       -0.26%

Gold has drifted lower after testing resistance at the top of a falling channel that has guided spot rates lower for most of the current month as US data has boosted Fed rate hike expectations. Indeed, the metal retains a strong inverse correlation with the outlook for US monetary policy (as expressed by the spread between Dec’2010 and Mar’2010 fed funds futures), with that link now at a formidable 93%. This threatens further weakness as data showing improvements in house prices and consumer confidence prepares to cross the wires in US trading hours.

Silver       $17.45       -$0.07       -0.40%

Positioning is strikingly similar to gold, with prices bouncing lower from resistance at the top of a falling channel established from early December. Also in line with its more expensive counterpart, a significant inverse correlation with the 2010 fed funds futures spread hints that further weakness is ahead if US data retains an upbeat tone as expected.



...more...

[ozymandius]

20. JPMorgan’s Dimon Called Darling to Reject Bonus Tax

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon told U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling that his 50 percent tax on banker bonuses would unfairly penalize the U.S. bank, a person close to the firm said.
.....

In the call to Darling, Dimon reiterated that the bank, the second-biggest U.S. lender by assets and deposits, paid British taxes and didn’t take a U.K. taxpayer bailout, the person said, declining to be identified because the conversation was private.

The telephone call was made after Darling on Dec. 9 imposed a 50 percent tax on discretionary bonuses greater than 25,000 pounds at all banks operating in the U.K. The tax, which the Treasury says will raise more than 550 million pounds, covers about 20,000 people in the U.K.
.....

The U.K. Treasury is working with banks to identify employees who are excluded from the tax, and Darling said Dec. 16 he will resist calls to change the policy. He suggested banks’ complex operations won’t allow them to escape the levy by arguing that some activities aren’t defined as banking.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZu8mq.yY0fw&pos=2

[Roland99]

23. Can't wait until he replaces Geithner at Treasury.

ayup....waiting with bated breath alright.

[Tansy_Gold]

24. See my post #12 upthread

We're gettin' screwed left and right and upside down. Now it's Jamie's turn and he doesn't like it????? Awwwwwww.

I have no sympathy for poor poor poor Mr. Dimon. Maybe he'd like to try to get by on $25,000 a year instead of $25,000 a fucking hour for a while???????????????

What an asshole.




Tansy Gold

[mbperrin]

44. Gosh, I always hate it when evildoers attack helpless infant companies

like JPMorgan Chase & Co.

It's so-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o unfair!

:)

Hold fast, Darling, you're on the right track!

[ozymandius]

22. ‘Stay Union-Free’ Pushed by Target, Michaels as Obama Law Looms

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Target Corp. retooled a training video to warn workers against a bill that would make union organizing easier. Michaels Stores Inc. told investors “our businesses could be impacted” by the measure. Enrollment in Jackson Lewis LLP’s “How to Stay Union-Free” seminars tripled.

Companies are rallying to fend off a so-called card-check law sought by labor leaders and backed by President Barack Obama. While the bill stalled in Congress this year as health- care legislation dominated debate, anti-union groups say they expect the president and Democrats to deliver next year on a compromise version of the legislation.
.....

Leaders of unions that spent a record $450 million electing Obama and congressional Democrats in 2008 had promised members that the legislation easing organizing would be passed in 2009. Andy Stern, president of the 2.1 million-member Service Employees International Union, said in an interview this month that he now expects Congress to take up the bill in the first quarter of 2010. Stern was the most frequent visitor to the White House during Obama’s first six months in office, according to a log released by the administration in October.

The Washington-based Chamber of Commerce and other trade associations have poured millions of dollars into efforts to kill the legislation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aWEQS_CInpY0&pos=14

[Tansy_Gold]

25. I got an answer for ya, Target and Michaels --

If you wanta stay "union-free," all you gotta do is treat your employees right.

Fair pay
Good benefits
Equal treatment


But you don't wanta do that, do you? You wanta have your little low-wage slaves just like back on the plantation. Don't want no uppity you-know-whats, no sir.

Sorry, Charley, they done got uppity already. And they're fixin' to get even more uppity. And more power to 'em.




TG

[ozymandius]

26. Oh my.

Pomboy: A Looming New Credit-bust

Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens was quoted extensively in this week’s Up and Down Wall Street column by Alan Abelson, notes that so far, we have only seen a temporary rebuild of balance sheets:

The agent of the great awakening will be gathering pressures on the credit market, as banks are “forced to re-provision, and resurgent delinquencies find Fannie and Freddie (and everyone else) putting ill-made mortgages back to lenders.”

Credit will grow dear and do so precisely as the demand for it from borrowers looking to roll over maturing obligations swells.

The numbers, Stephanie exclaims, are unbelievably big. Uncle Sam must roll over $2.5 trillion in debt during the next two years, banks worldwide have some $7 trillion due in the same stretch and commercial real estate will weigh in with another $750 billion.

Oh my.

Relevant links are available at The Big Picture link above.

[Tansy_Gold]

27. Pocket change

We must be up to at least a quadrillion now in derivatives that are going to have to "unwind" one of these days. . . . . .

I haven't heard anyone talking about that lately.



TG

[UpInArms]

32. ruh-roh

:scared:

there may be a lot of defaulting going on ....

[ozymandius]

29. Tanker Glut Signals 25% Drop on 26-Mile Line of Ships (Update3)

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- A 26-mile-long line of idled oil tankers, enough to blockade the English Channel, may signal a 25 percent slump in freight rates next year.

The ships will unload 26 percent of the crude and oil products they are storing in six months, adding to vessel supply and pushing rates for supertankers down to an average of $30,000 a day next year, compared with $40,212 now, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 analysts, traders and shipbrokers. That’s below what Frontline Ltd., the biggest operator of the ships, says it needs to break even.

Traders booked a record number of ships for storage this year, seeking to profit from longer-dated energy futures trading at a premium to contracts for immediate delivery, according to SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd., a unit of the world’s second- largest shipbroker. Ships taken out of that trade would return to compete for cargoes just as deliveries from shipyards’ largest-ever order book swell the global fleet.
.....

By the end of November, 168 tankers were storing crude or refined products, according to data from Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd., the world’s second-largest shipbroker. Their combined carrying capacity of 23.8 million deadweight tons is equal to 5.9 percent of the tanker fleet. That exceeds the previous record, set in 1981, when Japanese refiners used tankers with a combined 19.5 million deadweight tons.
.....

The storage trade is profitable so long as the spread between energy contracts exceeds ship rental, insurance and financing costs. A year ago, the spread between the first and sixth Brent crude-oil contracts traded on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange was 23 percent. Now, it’s 4 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a14LJ33Y.yng&pos=13

---

The shipping market is not the only thing supported by keeping tankers offshore. Energy prices are kept artificially high by keeping crude out of the pipeline.

[Tansy_Gold]

31. Freight cars

I'm planning a rock-hunting venture out to western Maricopa County, AZ in a couple weeks. If the stored freight cars are still there along the old Santa Fe tracks, I'll get pictures. put it in perspective, so to speak.


Tansy Gold, who desperately needs some time away from this crap, time in the clean outdoors. . . .

[Robbien]

30. GM offering deals on discontinued car brands

To help move inventory, General Motors is selling discontinued brands like Pontiac and Saturn for almost half off the sticker price.

Radke: What is GM doing?

Roth: Well you'll remember that GM is discontinuing the Pontiac and the Saturn brands. So what GM wants to do is clear out those cars. It's gonna offer dealers a $7,000 a car incentive to buy those cars themselves. This takes the cars off GM's books, and then the dealers can turn around and sell the cars to you, the public, at a huge discount. Now there's an added bonus here, which is the offer is only good until January 4 -- that's the last day for December car sales. So if a lot of dealers take advantage of the offer, GM's December car sales could end up looking really good.

Radke: And how little could I, the public, buy a car for?

Roth: Well, let's take the Pontiac G3, it's the cheapest in the Pontiac line, it's a little compact car. It's regular price is about $15,000. If the dealer passed on the whole incentive to you, you could end up paying as little as $8,000. So that's almost half off the regular price.

Radke: Yeah, almost half, that's pretty serious savings.

Roth: It is, it depends a little bit on whether you plan to resell the car or not. Because these cars will technically be used cars -- the dealer is actually the first owner even if it doesn't drive them. And the cars are being discontinued, so they might not have a whole lot of resale value.

Radke: Right, interesting. And speaking of discontinued, do you really want to buy a car that they're not making anymore?

Roth: Well, that's a question that a lot of people had when GM went into bankruptcy last year: Do I want a car that, you know, the brand may or may not exist? In this case, we know it's not going to exist, but GM is promising that the warrantees will stil be good, and it's going to continue to stock parts and service the cars even after they quit making them.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/12/29/am-discontinued-cars/


GM promises - - - Now why does that not feel so very reassuring?

[Festivito]

33. Debt: 12/24/2009 12,101,272,618,959.09 (DOWN 1,330,809,548.65) (Thu)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,734,527,533,727.08 + 4,366,745,085,232.01
DOWN 1,979,240,244.32 + UP 648,430,695.67

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,288,478 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,253.08.
A family of three owes $117,759.24. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,861,440,204.20.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,831,722,816.41.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 59 reports in 85 days of FY2010 averaging 3.24B$ per report, 2.25B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,123 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/24/2009 12,101,272,618,959.09 BHO (UP 1,474,395,570,046.01 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,191,443,615,447.30 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,822,081,407,509.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --

24,826,184,990.68 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4201034&mesg_id=4201061

[Festivito]

55. Debt: 12/28/2009 12,104,441,214,373.68 (UP 3,168,595,414.59) (Mon)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,734,615,628,917.72 + 4,369,825,585,455.96
UP 88,095,190.64 + UP 3,080,500,223.95

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,323,038 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,258.96.
A family of three owes $117,776.87. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 4,561,468,178.91.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,193,027,725.24.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,090,026,830.88.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 60 reports in 89 days of FY2010 averaging 3.24B$ per report, 2.19B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,119 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/28/2009 12,104,441,214,373.68 BHO (UP 1,477,564,165,460.60 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,194,612,210,861.90 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,798,128,729,939.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon

24,703,728,948.96 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4202257&mesg_id=4202350

[ArcticFox]

39. It's December 29 today (Tuesday)

Yesterday (Monday) was December 28.

[Tansy_Gold]

40. That's what they WANT you to think.

:blush:

[ozymandius]

42. Indeed. It is. Pity that it's too late to change it.

I'll make a correction on tomorrow's thread.

[Robbien]

41. Over on a mortgage broker discussion board

one poster asked the question if the FHA would accept a borrower using his credit cards to pay the required 3 and a half percent down payment on a mortgage.

Some responses said yes, some said no. Their answers gave the impression this was a standard run of the mill type question. No one said 'what the hell, that's crazy'.

Also I see car makers are currently running ads claiming you can get a brand new car for just your signature--- No money down, no security deposit, a delay in the first couple of months' payments. Just sign on the dotted line and drive off.


This stuff is just insane and outside of the SMWer thread, no one seems to notice how insane it all is.

[DemReadingDU]

43. Yahoo Tech Ticker's Best of 2009: Fan Favorite, Howard Davidowitz

Clink link for video

12/29/09 Tech Ticker's Best of 2009: Fan Favorite, Howard Davidowitz

Tech Ticker conducted hundreds of interviews this year with dozens of guests on numerous topics. But one guest consistently garnered massive amounts of excitement and (for the most part) positive reaction from you, the audience.

Without question, Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates is the audience's favorite guest of the year.

Davidowitz is a straight shooter who always tells it like he sees it. Whether it's his bearish predictions on the economy or his criticism of the government's bailouts, Davidowitz is always an impassioned observer. His 'end of the world' forecasts haven't exactly panned out, but what he lacks in fortune telling skills he makes up for in entertainment value.

Editing the 'Best of' clips was not easy but it sure was fun.

Hope you enjoy his appearance as much as we do.

Click link for video

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/tech-ticker%27s-best-of-2009-fan-favorite-howard-davidowitz-397066.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,DIA,XLF,FAS,GLD&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

[DemReadingDU]

45. Davidowitz Says 70% of Retailers to See Negative Sales: Video

12/28/09 Davidowitz Says 70% of Retailers to See Negative Sales: Video

Bloomberg) -- Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc., talks with Bloomberg's Deirdre Bolton about the outlook for retail sales and consumer spending. Davidowitz also discusses the performance of online sales, the challenges facing retailers and market strategy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZGKbPoz3EA

[Tansy_Gold]

47. "Negative sales" ???

is that what happens when people bring back more merchandise than they bought?


Tansy Gold, trying to find some sense of humor in all this shit

[DemReadingDU]

49. The sales are not real, charged on credit

:eyes:

Not sure, but I think it means the retailers were hoping for sales greater than last year, but most likely will be less, maybe a lot less.

Edit: I like your interpretation
:)

[ozymandius]

52. Also to add: gift cards do not count as sales.

Sales register when gift cards are redeemed for merchandise. Just another point to remember when calculating money spent per person versus sales receipts.