Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid

[mcablue]

Source: AP

MOSCOW – Russia's space agency chief said Wednesday a spacecraft may be dispatched to knock a large asteroid off course and reduce the chances of earth impact, even though U.S. scientists say such a scenario is unlikely.

Anatoly Perminov told Golos Rossii radio the space agency would hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to Apophis. He said his agency might eventually invite NASA, the European Space Agency, the Chinese space agency and others to join the project.

When the 270-meter (885-foot) asteroid was first discovered in 2004, astronomers estimated its chances of smashing into Earth in its first flyby, in 2029, at 1-in-37.

Further studies have ruled out the possibility of an impact in 2029, when the asteroid is expected to come no closer than 18,300 miles (29,450 kilometers) from Earth's surface, but they indicated a small possibility of a hit on subsequent encounters.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091231/ap_on_sc/eu_russia_asteroid_encounter;_ylt=Amwxy456cmmAdCImfOypLRys0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTJwcTFnZ2VtBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMDkxMjMxL2V1X3J1c3NpYV9hc3Rlcm9pZF9lbmNvdW50ZXIEcG9zAzUEc2VjA3luX21vc3RfcG9wdWxhcgRzbGsDcnVzc2lhbWF5c2Vu

---

1 in 37 chance?

Crap.

And the name of the thing is not very reassuring, if you ask me. The Guardian said this in 2005: "In Egyptian myth, Apophis was the ancient spirit of evil and destruction, a demon that was determined to plunge the world into eternal darkness."A fitting name, astronomers reasoned, for a menace now hurtling towards Earth from outerspace. Scientists are monitoring the progress of a 390-metre wide asteroid discovered last year that is potentially on a collision course with the planet, and are imploring governments to decide on a strategy for dealing with it." http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/dec/07/spaceexploration.research

The blast be 100,000 times as strong as the Hiroshima bomb and the "whole earth" would see effect of dust rising to the atmosphere.

[galileoreloaded]

1. I always spend fortunes for nothing. What me worry???? n/t

[LiberalFighter]

2. Send Cheney up there. The asteroid will move away when Cheney touches it.

[elleng]

3. Who wrote the screenplay????

[Goldom]

4. Except the next line says it won't hit.

Meaning it's not 1 in 37 now. And it seems silly to try to move it now when it won't hit this go-round. But it is absolutely good to start thinking about a solution now, before we do need it some day.

[Posteritatis]

7. They probably want to move it as a proof-of-concept

I can get behind that idea, personally, if just because sooner or later it will have to be done in a non-test way.

[NBachers]

5. All they need is a gravity tractor satellite

A 10 ton satellite flying near the asteroid would exert enough gravity to influence it's course away from Earth.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/6110022/Scientists-design-spacecraft-to-save-Earth.html

[RedCloud]

6. Or they can paint one side of the asteroid. But I don't think a ladder will reach.

[MilesColtrane]

14. Re: 10 ton satellite

I'm all for the effort to shoot Rush Limbaugh into space to save the Earth.

[Wizard777]

22. Limbaugh is only 10 tons on earth. In space he's weightless just like everything else.

[shadowknows69]

8. Fuck the scientists that say it isn't likely. Go Russia.

"Unlikely" isn't a bet I want to make when it comes to extinction events.

[AtheistCrusader]

16. Not a bad idea to at least give it a shot.

It would be an impressive feat if they can pull it off, and it doesn't seem terribly likely to me that they'll make it any more dangerous than it already is.

[musicblind]

20. Amen n/t

[breadandwine]

32. Russia has a special interest after the 1908 Tunguska Event in Siberia.

Tunguska was a huge explosion in a remote region of Siberia, equal to 1,000 times Hiroshima. Some estimates have the explosion equal to 10-15 megatons of TNT.

One theory holds that the Tunguska explosion was from a comet that made a glancing pass on the Earth's atmosphere and then skipped back into space. The comet in this theory is Comet 2005NB56, which will pass close to Earth again in 2045. Other views believe Tunguska was a piece of the Comet Encke. Wikipedia mentions both theories ---

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

Here's more on the Tunguska Event from Russia Today with a video (full screen and download options on the video) ---

http://rt.com/prime-time/2008-06-30/Meteorite_mystery_puzzles_scientists_100_years_on.html?gclid=CMTNlbKg_54CFQO2sgodGyLyJg

Of course, if a really big one hit, it would look like this "lovely" video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zvCUmeoHpw&feature=player_embedded

I recommend playing "Rock-a-bye Baby" while watching that...

The article mentioned in the opening post, though, gives a simple solution similar to the gravity tractor mentioned elsewhere on this thread. The gravity tractor involves parking a spacecraft nearby. Not sure if that's the same thing as the solution proposed in the OP article, which says just orbit a spacecraft around it for a few days and that will alter its course.

[snot]

9. What do you think the odds are that they'll bump it in the right direction?

[Bacchus39]

11. good point. hope they got a plan B. still, not a bad endeavor n.t

s

[EFerrari]

17. . . .

:spank:

[Posteritatis]

29. The scale of space being what it is

bumping it in a sufficiently wrong direction to actually hit the planet would be extraordinarily unlikely.

[breadandwine]

33. They don't have to touch it, just orbit it.

And the course change can be fairly well calculated.


Smacking into it is much more uncertain and unnecessary.

[Bacchus39]

10. kind of cool actually. why not get some practice in?? n/t

s

[iamthebandfanman]

12. yay

ill be looking forward to the two pieces it creates ;)

freaky ;)

youd hope something of this magnitude would be a global effort lol

[KakistocracyHater]

13. space-capable Predator Drones=Astroid........would that work? Controlled

by Humans on Earth. It'd be far more accurate than any computer-controlled thing.

[Posteritatis]

28. Uh? Predator drones aren't exactly autonomous. (nt)

[Harry Monroe]

15. Personally, I wouldn't go around fuckin' with that big ass rock!!

The law of unintended consequences and Murphy's Law being what it is and all!! If its not projected to hit us, leave that big boulder alone!!

[Vidar]

18. America's too busy bailing out Wall Street. I'm glad the Russians are on it.

[No Elephants]

19. Where are Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck when you really need them?

[Wizard777]

21. Apophis is the Egyptian equivalent of Ahriman. The Dark One. The Destroyer.

He who killed Gayomard now comes to kill man who grew from Gayomard. In some respects Zoroastrian cosmogony is mind blowing. Especially their apocalypse. It's really simple. A Comet hits the earth. The End. Then Ahura Mazda (Wise Lord) reorders the universe (realigns the planets.) We're watching that right now. Whoa!

[shadowknows69]

23. Then again I say. Go Russia. They didn't name it that for no reason.

[Wizard777]

24. But that's the whole thing. They could knock it off course. They could also knock it on course.

I'm leaning toward them knocking it on course for a collision. What I cited was Zoroastrian prophecy. All prophecies are self fulfilling. The only way for an otherwise natural disaster to become a self fulfilling prophecy is for man to interject, intercede or interfere. Like trying to knock Apophis off course and accidentally knocking it on a collision course.

[shadowknows69]

26. Valid points Mr. Wizard. I tend to agree with you about self fulfilling prophecies.

But I also think that's it doesn't necessarily have to go down that way. In my head a prophecy is there to warn us and give a chance to alter that destiny. It's a very personal struggle I have with myself actually. Destiny or self determination. Big damn concepts.

[Baclava]

30. Yep - leave it alone

NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth

PASADENA, Calif. -- Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036.

"Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."

Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteriod ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 18,300 miles above Earth's surface.

"The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not something that should be feared," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The public can follow along as we continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by visiting us on our AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the @AsteroidWatch Twitter feed."

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2009/oct/HQ_09-232_Apophis_Update.html

[NBachers]

31. And Yog-Sothoth, the Lurker at the Gate, will be freed to rule our Earth again

The Time of the Old Ones will be Restored

[Joe Bacon]

25. Who needs a missile when we have Pat Robertson?

Gee, Pat prayed that hurricane away. Surely Pat and his 700 club Jesusbots can pray Naughty Mr. Asteroid away!

[shadowknows69]

27. They're probably praying for ateroids to hit us to bring the end times.

Expect no help from the death cults. Isn't "Wormwood" supposed to be a comet or asteroid in some schools of thought?

[undeterred]

34. Better chance of succeeding here than in Afghanistan.

At least they are on a mission that has some chance of success.

[murray hill farm]

35. Well....for 16 years they thought there was a good...

chance that it would hit and destroy earth. Thing is that was 16 years that they did not tell us about it. Only when the odds changed...and it became unlikely that it would hit earth, did they tell us! Wonder how many other things we do not know about...and will never hear about unless and until it is determined that they no longer are a threat?