Kerry's Next Job: Cementing Image Among Voters

[kskiska]

Fresh off an impressive victory in the Democratic nominating contest and running ahead of President Bush in many national polls, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) nonetheless has entered a period of acute vulnerability, according to many Democratic strategists and independent analysts.

The next month will offer early answers to two of the most important questions on which the November election will hinge, these analysts and some senior Kerry advisers say. First among these is whether the well-funded negative ad campaign Bush launched last week in 18 swing states can succeed in defining Kerry -- who polls indicate is still a little-known public figure -- in a way that will make him unacceptable to uncommitted voters.

The second question, though, is how many uncommitted voters are left in a race with an incumbent president who has left few people neutral or ambivalent. It remains unclear what effect Bush's ads -- assailing Kerry for wanting to raise taxes and for votes cutting intelligence funding -- can have in such a polarized environment.

Tim Hibbitts, an independent pollster in Oregon, one of the states where Bush's ads -- as well as a Kerry response ad accusing Bush of misleading voters -- are airing, said history shows that Bush's attacks are virtually certain to weaken Kerry. "I don't think these are intended to be some kind of knockout punch; they're intended to chip away," he said. If Bush strategists "can't damage Kerry with that kind of money, they're incompetent, and I don't think they're incompetent."

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"Part of winning is believing you can win," said Democratic communications strategist Howard Wolfson. "A lot of Democrats want reassurance that this is different, and we can win. . . . He's doing that."

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56720-2004Mar13.html