Democrats More Hopeful About Senate Races

[kskiska]

More Seats Now Viewed as Competitive, But Regaining Control Still Looks Unlikely

The number of competitive Senate races has edged up in recent months, buoying Democratic hopes of minimizing their losses -- and possibly even winning a majority -- in the November elections.

Republicans scoff at the notion of a Democratic takeover, and many independent observers say odds still favor continued GOP control of the Senate, probably with at least some gains in the party's current 51-vote majority in the 100-member chamber.

But there is a growing view among political analysts that Democratic gains can no longer be ruled out -- a view reinforced by the recent decision of Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-Colo.) to retire, the emergence of potentially bruising contests within the GOP and Democrats' somewhat brighter -- or, at least, less dismal -- prospects in the South.

"The situation for Democrats looks a whole lot better than it did six weeks ago . . . but Democrats need a lot to go right for them to reach 51," said Jennifer E. Duffy, who oversees Senate races for the Cook Political Report. Republicans could pick up a seat or two but are unlikely to gain three or four, as some have predicted, Duffy added.

more…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56469-2004Mar13.html

[aquart]

1. WHERE could Republicans pick up a seat?

[NewJerseyDem]

2. The south

The republicans will pick up Georgia. They are also in a strong position in North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Louisiana. Even though, they probably won't win all of them, they are likely to win a few. Then, Tom Daschle is very vulnerbable in South Dakota. And republicans have a little hope in Wisconsin, Washington and California but I seriously doubt they can win in any of those place. However, every cycle there seems to be at least one pretty big surprise in the senate races.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. I see a problem in Georgia and South Dakota.

Georgia is gone to the reich and South Dakota is Bushler land.

The Carolinas and Florida look good. Louisiana should be ours too.

[quaker bill]

14. Florida could be quite tough depending who they pick.

The repug race will likely boil down to McCollum and Martinez.

We have already beaten McCollum once statewide and probably could do it again. He is a bit too far out on the right to win statewide.

Martinez on the other hand will be far harder to beat. He has shown a knack for playing to the center while being a repug with enough cred to keep the base activated. Turnout will be a huge factor if they pick Martinez.

Bush is spending a ton of money in FL on a massive GOTV effort. I expect Kerry to do the same. The upbeat spin is that I have never seen the democrats this active this early.

If Kerry wins FL we will probably keep the seat either way. As long as its close, we can probably beat McCollum. Otherwise, the seat is certainly at risk.

[yardwork]

11. I don't know about North Carolina

A lot of North Carolinians (even Dems) are mad at John Edwards for not doing much for the state as senator. He's been running for president since he was elected to the senate. In contrast, Elizabeth Dole has been a popular Republican senator here.

The big problem is that Jesse Helms's machine is still alive and well here in NC. Dole used nasty push-polls and other Helms tricks during her campaign. I received one of those push-poll calls myself.

I predict an ugly senatorial contest here with the Republicans working very hard to get their seat back.

The outcome will depend a lot on how well Kerry is running at the time. If he wins the national election, his coat-tails could sweep a bunch of Democrats into other offices, including NC, even if he doesn't win the state.

[Toronto Ron]

16. About NC:

I think Bowles is in good shape. I've heard from party activists (and my wife from Bowles himself) that there is great reason to be extremely optimistic about the Senate race here in NC, and indeed the RNC is very pessimistic and almost ready to divert resources from this race. With Edwards on the ticket, Bowles will win in a blowout.

[JPace]

19. I think that the loss of jobs in NC has been sobering for

people....they see no help coming from AWOL's
administration. There is hope from Democrats
here as people are looking for a government
that will make trade policies based on helping
employment here.

[Jane Eyre]

22. You are right

A lot of Democrats have been less than happy with Senator Edwards' long absences from the state. Elizabeth Dole has been able to take advantage of his absence, plus the fact that she is NOT Jesse Helms, and position herself as a kinder, gentler Republican.

The worst mistake that Edwards made recently, in my opinion, is his failure to respond quickly to the Pillowtex plant closing in Kannapolis. Dole opened an office personally in Kannapolis the next day to respond better to constituents who had lost their jobs. Not only did it take over a week for Edwards to show up there, but his presidential campaign office announced the day after the plant closing that they were opening 10 offices - in Iowa!!!

That said, Edwards could easily make up for his absences by being more visible here the next few months. Frankly, he needs to campaign in North Carolina starting now if he is serious about being considered for vice president. Edwards' presence on the presidential ticket would mean that he would be expected to carry North Carolina - a state that gave him a mere 51% of the vote in his last election and went for Bush over Gore by 16 points. There is no guarantee that he can carry his home state. He needs to start working for it now.

Erskine Bowles should win this race, Edwards or no Edwards. He has the name recognition, the experience and the cross-over appeal to swing voters. Richard Burr has access to the Bush fundraising machine, but Erskine is no slacker in the fundraising department himself. As long as the Democrats don't shoot themselves in the feet again by failing to get their base voters to the polls, Erskine Bowles will be our next Senator.

[murielm99]

12. You forgot Illinois.

I am sure we will pick up a Senate seat in Illinois. Obama is running strong. If not him, Hynes will win it. Everyone in Illinois is still turned off by repukes after the Ryan scandal.

[PA Democrat]

4. Zell Miller's seat in Georgia

Oh wait, he really IS a Republican.

[TroglodyteScholar]

6. For real...

I'm ashamed to live in the same state as that traitor.

Democrat my ass.

[belle]

7. Yeah, I don't see Georgia as making much difference, aside from...

who gets to be majority leader, of course. But in terms of the actual senator: pfff. A moderate Republican could even actually be an improvement. Of course it probably'll be some slavering fundy. Still, though, Miller: no great loss.

[mndemocrat_29]

21. Georgia, for one

will got to whoever wins the Republican primary. And Massachusetts will go Republican as John Kerry will have to retire that seat to become president.

That said, we have good chances at retaining FL, NC, SC, and LA, and keeping Daschle in SD. Also, we should pick up a good majority of the four open Republican seats (IL, AK, OK, and CO). If we can pull off a win in either PA or MO due to sweeps, our lead will increase further. I'm fairly optimistic about the upcoming Senate race.

[PA Democrat]

5. Specter is being challenged in the primary

by Republican Congressman Pat Toomey. You should see the mudslinging ads Toomey is running against Specter, comparing him to Kerry, and calling him a "liberal". If Toomey wins, the Democrat, Congressman Joe Hoeffel would stand a chance IMHO.

[jfxgillis]

8. HUH???? This is crazy pessimist.

Daschle isn't going lose SD.

Chris John isn't going to lose LA.

Dems are currently LEADING in 3 of 4 GOP seats (IL, OK, AK) and a solid bet to take the lead in the fourth, CO.

That means the GOP has to go 4 for 4 in the remaining Southern seats, FL, GA, SC and NC to stay at 51, because the Veep is going to Dem.

[west michigan]

9. How about 50 ?

You know ........That Jeffords guy ;)

[jfxgillis]

10. Whatever it says on the ballot in Vermont,

Within the confines of the US SEnate, Jeffords is a Democrat.

[NewJerseyDem]

18. How can you be so sure about Daschle and Thune

Chris John is even tied or behind democrat John Kennedy so it isn't even clear that John will be the democrat facing Vitter in the runoff, assuming that Vitter doesn't get over 50%.

Daschle is narrowly leading Thune, but Thune is very popular and Daschle has certainly lost some of his popularity due to his strong opposition to Bush. The conventional wisdom that if Thune couldn't beat Johnson, he can't beat Daschle is flawed. The 2002 election was extremely close and with the higher turnout of a presidential election it could be bad for Daschle. Plus, I don't think South Dakotans will go for the argument that they must vote for the democrats to keep Daschle as majority leader. That argument may have worked once, but it is unlikely to work twice.

[Florida_Geek]

13. It is still the Economy Stupid

and unlike the House and Delay's actions, states as a whole will be voting the economy. As Bush's economy goes south the Senate is going to be blamed too.

On other than the economy, Bush is pissing off groups of people like the Muslim voters. If they go Kerry, they will vote Dem for Senator.

[SaintLouisBlues]

15. In Missouri the lousy economy could bounce out Bond (R-Drunk)

There will be coattails!

[dusty64]

17. I predict a tied Senate or

better for the Democrats. Pickups of at least 3 or 4 in Illinois, Alaska, Colorado, Oklamhoma and possbily more in NH, Missouri, and PA. We will probably lose 2 to 3 of the Southern seats, but the loss of Georgia will make a difference in name only (miller is less than useless and will support Dems on nothing).

[dusty64]

20. Actually, I forgot

about the loss of Kerry's seat in Mass. if he wins the WH (which I expect providing fair elections). So I guess even in the best case scenario the Senate will be in a tie and the VP will be VERY busy. Perhaps Chafee will switch over as he has hinted at in the past.

[JohnKleeb]

23. The MA state legislature is trying to pass a law that enables them to pick

a replacement.
Names in mind are Barney Frank and Marty Meehan, either would be good.

[Timefortruth]

24. Chafee has shown no political courage to date.

Whenever it matters the Republicans can count on his support. He knows it's wrong but votes with them anyway.

[Thrill]

25. I can't see Chris John

not winning