U.S. Sees an Opportunity to Press Iran on Nuclear Fuel

[TomCADem]

Source: NY Times

WASHINGTON — As President Obama faces pressure to back up his year-end ultimatum for diplomatic progress with Iran, the administration says that domestic unrest and signs of unexpected trouble in Tehran’s nuclear program make its leaders particularly vulnerable to strong and immediate new sanctions.

The long-discussed sanctions would initiate the latest phase in a strategy to force Iran to comply with United Nations demands to halt production of nuclear fuel. It comes as the administration has completed a fresh review of Iran’s nuclear progress.

In interviews, Mr. Obama’s strategists said that while Iran’s top political and military leaders remained determined to develop nuclear weapons, they were distracted by turmoil in the streets and political infighting, and that the drive to produce nuclear fuel appeared to have faltered in recent months.

The White House wants to focus the new sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the military force believed to run the nuclear weapons effort. That force has also played a crucial role in the repression of antigovernment demonstrators since the disputed presidential election in June.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/03/world/middleeast/03iran.html

[leveymg]

1. Great. Another, much bigger war. This is not why I worked to elect that man.

[tabatha]

2. There will NOT be a war with Iran.

[Imajika]

4. These sanctions are designed to prevent war...

If nothing is done to slow or stop Iran's nuclear program, Israel will attack Iran. Period. Israel has made this very clear. If Israel does that we will inevitably be drawn into a wider war in the region. Obama is trying to prevent "another, much bigger war", and that IS "why I worked to elect that man".

[leveymg]

6. Sure. Just like the Tonkin Gulf Resolution was designed to "promote peace" in SE Asia

Once you escalate sanctions, you have nowhere to go but into the hostilities phase.

The Israelis will not do anything of the kind, unless we signal that we want them to. This is the wrong signal, if peace is really the purpose.

[Imajika]

9. Sanctions..

"Once you escalate sanctions, you have nowhere to go but into the hostilities phase."

That is pretty much how it works. Start with diplomacy, move on to sanctions, and eventually the possibility of armed conflict. Obama has pretty much exhausted diplomacy, the Iranians simply do not wish to be a serious partner in negotiations. The world agrees with Obama - even the Russians and Chinese appear ready to go with sanctions.

"The Israelis will not do anything of the kind, unless we signal that we want them to."

No, it has become pretty clear Israel will launch air strikes against Iran's nuclear weapons program. Israel has and will take actions directly against US wishes. They have done it many times before, and can be counted on to do it many more times in the future. For Israel, it is flat out unacceptable for Iran to have nuclear weapons. We can all disagree, think they are unreasonable, etc, etc, etc, but it doesn't matter, Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Iran.

"This is the wrong signal, if peace is really the purpose."

Oh? Maybe stick with diplomacy that is clearly getting us nowhere? You realize diplomacy won't always work where your dealing with people or nations that simply don't much care what you think or want right? I mean, if you have no way to coerce some people, they will just sit at the table and laugh at you. That is the point of sanctions, to get Iran to go along with what the UN/world is demanding of them.

Or we can sing songs and think happy thoughts and hope that will bring Iran around to being reasonable...

[AverageJoe5]

10. Israel will not attack Iran

If Israel were to make the stupid mistake of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran would respond by launching missiles to hit Israel. Israel knows that, that's why Israel will not attack Iran. Bullies prefer to attack people who can't hit them back hard; that's why Israel can attack the Palestinians at will. But Iran can hit back hard at Israel, so Israel wouldn't dare to attack Iran.

[Imajika]

11. Are you joking?

Right now Iranian missiles are a joke. Inaccurate scud type missiles that hardly pose a threat to Israel. Iran can launch those missiles all day and they pose not an iota of real military threat against Israel. They become dangerous only when Iran can put a nuclear weapon on them.

Yes, Israel probably will attack Iran if Obama can not stop their continued nuclear weapons program development. Israel has made this very clear and they usually don't joke about these sorts of things.

[AverageJoe5]

12. If Iranian missiles are a "joke" .......

..... then why is Obama (and Bush before him) scrambling to install an anti-missile defense system specifically aimed at thwarting the "threat" posed by the Iranian missiles?

You state: "....Israel probably will attack Iran if Obama can not stop their continued nuclear weapons program development ..."

Nuclear WEAPONS development program? What evidence do you have to prove that Iran is developing nuclear WEAPONS?

But, even if Iran were developing nuclear weapons, so what? Why is it OK for the U.S. to have nuclear weapons, but it's not OK for Iran to have nuclear weapons? Iran doesn't have a history of having misused nuclear weapons in the past; unfortunately, the same thing cannot be said about the U.S.

[Imajika]

13. Iranian missiles..

The Iranian missiles, at this time, are only valuable as terror weapons. Same as the ones Saddam lobbed at Israel in the first Gulf war. They have no military value as they are too inaccurate to hit anything specific. Defending against them is the governments obligation. It is no different than the US governments obligation to protect against random terrorist attacks inside the US. The public demands it, therefore that is what governments do.

Yes, the world believes Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons. The UN, the US, our European allies, etc, etc, are all trying to prevent this program from bearing fruit.

You can argue all day whether Iran has a right to those weapons or not, but the world has taken a position via the UN, and Obama has probably even gotten China and Russia on board which may result in real sanctions with teeth.

My statement that the Iranian missiles hold no real military value without some form of WMD on them is entirely accurate. Even with chemical/biological, those missiles are probably fairly worthless other than for a terror effect on a population center. Add a nuke though and you have an totally different story.

Israel will not allow Iran to have a nuclear arsenal. Period. The US, Europe and now China and Russia are now making every effort to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. If Obama and his allies in this fail, Israel will attack Iran. I'd venture to guess that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is actually hoping and goading Israel and/or the US to strike due to the fragile state of the regime. Typical for shaky governments to hope for just such a thing. Stir nationalism and turn the public's ire towards someone other than the unpopular government in place.

I really hope the Iranian programme can be at least delayed long enough for the current Iranian government to fall. That is the best option, and I think Obama is doing a great job so far.

[AverageJoe5]

14. So, the only evidence you can cite is "...the world believes..."

The "world" also believed Iraq was developing WMDs. How did that pan out?

Besides, the world does not consist of only the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, and perhaps a few other countries, which believe (or pretend to believe, simply to further their national interests) that Iran is developing nuclear weapons.

Just last week (and on many occasions in the past), the Russian Foreign Minister was reported to have said that Russia does not believe Iran is developing nuclear weapons (which puzzles me as to why Russia goes along with the nonsensical sanctions charade). China also has some doubts.

The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), consisting of 140+ countries, does not believe Iran is developing nuclear weapons and has consistently expressed its support for Iran's nuclear program (you don't hear much about this in the press, because, to the MSM, and probably to you, the "world" consists of only the few countries that pretend to believe that Iran is developing nuclear weapons).

As for the Iranian missiles, let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the Iranian missiles are inaccurate, a "joke" as you wrote. If Israel stupidly attacks Iran, let's assume Iran will respond by launching 12,000 of their inaccurate "jokes" targeted at one Israel city or Israel's nuclear reactor or facility, and only a few of these Iranian inaccurate "jokes" hit their tart get. Do you think Israel will find the Iranian "jokes" funny? I don't think Israel can take that risk.

Israel's military threats are simply a bluff; it will not deter Iran for pursuing its nuclear program.

[yava]

15. hyping the MSM over Iran to avoid war?

How will you explain that you are NOT going to war AFTER the sanctions show no effect?

[Don Caballero]

3. Our President will keep all options on the table when dealing with Iran

They must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. It would lead to a nuclear holocaust in the Middle East.

[Robb]

5. Smoke and mirrors. This isn't about nukes.

The White House wants to damage Iran's existing political structure.

A stable Iran will cement its ties with Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, which have all signed on with China as the energy suppliers for the next 50 years. This represents a formidable energy bloc, especially as Bulgaria and Turkey seem to have decided to send money in that direction as well. And people wonder why Turkey can't accede to the EU. :D

[leveymg]

7. So, you think this is part of a proxy confrontation with China and the SCO/AESG?

Interesting. See, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/ea_china0980_12_22.asp

Certainly makes more sense than "the crazy mullahs might nuke the world" scenarios.

[Robb]

8. I do.

Turkmenistan just pooped in the Cheerios of Western oil/gas interests by granting huuuuuge development contracts to a China-led consortium instead of any of the big players in the West.

This shortly after they completed the Dauletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran pipe with much fanfare and glad-handing in Tehran, just a few weeks ago -- more than tripling gas exports to Iran. And Iran is shelling out for a railway system that will link Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Iran -- they're now their biggest trading partner, $3 billion in 2009, half again more than '08.

There's an interesting "private" project called the White Stream pipeline, supposedly a way to bring Azerbaijani gas to Europe through Georgia and Romania, but which really is nothing more than a threat to shut down Turkey's position as an energy transit nation. I can't imagine even the former Soviet states would be tone-deaf enough to sign on, but I'd still love to know who was actually financing the idea.

[The abyss]

16. Most excellent observations.

Thanks!