STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 5

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 5, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 4, 2010

Dow... 10,583.96 +155.91 (+1.50%)
Nasdaq... 2,308.42 +39.27 (+1.73%)
S&P 500... 1,132.99 +17.89 (+1.60%)
Gold future... 1,120 +23.30 (+2.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.81 -0.02 (-0.44%)
30-Year Bond 4.64 +0.01 (+0.15%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman    William Black: This Economic Disaster

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Economic Recovery and Removal of Monetary Accommodation
BY RYAN J. PUPLAVA

It’s a new year, and for newsletter writers and portfolio managers it means the bar has been reset. It’s time to put on our thinking caps and make grandiose predictions for the year to come. After watching CNBC for three days last week, I found it remarkable how much of a consensus has formed for 2010. There seems to be such an aligned consensus that we can already see the new trends forming in December as hedge funds and portfolio managers put their money where their mouth is. 2010 will be a key year for the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds.

Will the Federal Reserve Bank raise short term rates in 2010? The consensus is moving from early 2011 to mid-year 2010. The reason for this has been stronger economic data over the past month with better results in unemployment claims, the Chicago PMI, Case-Shiller, employment, and consumer spending. Bond investors are already reacting to the change in interest rate expectations by selling long term bonds and driving long term interest rates higher. As bond investors help raise interest rates with their selling, they’re forcing the yield curve to steepen while short term rates are kept artificially low. Eventually, the Federal Reserve will have to react to rising long term rates and positive economic data by raising the Fed Funds Rate....

How does one invest with such an outlook as this for the dollar and interest rates? Let’s go over a few intermarket points first:

• The U.S. dollar trends inversely to commodities
• Commodities rise with interest rates due to inflation expectations, while bond prices fall
• Falling bond prices are normally bad for stocks near economic cyclical peaks
• We are currently in an economic recovery
• High interest rates support the dollar while low interest rates do not

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

10:00 Factory Orders Nov
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 0.6%

10:00 Pending Home Sales Nov
Briefing.com 2.0%
Consensus -2.0%
Prior 3.7%

14:00 Auto Sales Dec
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 3.8M

14:00 Truck Sales Dec
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 4.6M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises to near $82 on stocks, cold weather

SINGAPORE – Oil rose to near $82 a barrel Tuesday in Asia after a jump in U.S. stock markets boosted investor confidence and helped extend a four-week rally in crude prices.

Benchmark crude for February delivery was up 16 cents to $81.67 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract climbed $2.15 to settle at $81.51 on Monday.

Oil traders often look to stock markets as a measure of overall investor sentiment, and equities rose in the first trading day of 2010 as investors eyed signs of improvement in U.S. and Chinese manufacturing.
.....

In other Nymex trading in February contracts, heating oil rose 0.59 cent to $2.196 a gallon and gasoline gained 1.01 cents to $2.11 a gallon.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Roland99]

23. The winter without relief

[Loge23]

32. Supply and Demand, 2010

In a time of near-global recession, it always warms my heart to see the speculators greedily rubbing their cold, little hands together over the fire! "What was that? You're cold?? Pay your tribute to the titans of energy and perhaps we will allow you a small piece of the flame!"

"External heat and cold had little influence on Scrooge. No warmth could warm, no wintry weather chill him. No wind that blew was bitterer than he, no falling snow was more intent upon its purpose, no pelting rain less open to entreaty. Foul weather didn't know where to have him. The heaviest rain, and snow, and hail, and sleet, could boast of the advantage over him in only one respect. They often "came down" handsomely, and Scrooge never did."
Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol.

[ozymandius]

4. Dems intend to bypass GOP on health compromise

WASHINGTON – House and Senate Democrats intend to bypass traditional procedures when they negotiate a final compromise on health care legislation, officials said Monday, a move that will exclude Republican lawmakers and reduce their ability to delay or force politically troubling votes in both houses.
.....

These officials said there are no plans to appoint a formal House-Senate conference committee, the method Congress most often uses to reconcile differing bills.
Under that customary format, a committee chairman is appointed to preside, and other senior lawmakers from both parties and houses participate in typically perfunctory public meetings while the meaningful negotiations occur behind closed doors.

In this case, the plan is to skip the formal meetings, reach an agreement, then have the two houses vote as quickly as possible. A 60-vote Senate majority would be required in advance of final passage.
.....

There are literally hundreds of differences between the two bills, a House measure that ran to 1,990 pages and a Senate version of 2,074, not counting 383 pages of last-minute changes. The biggest differences involve a dispute over a government-run insurance option — the House wants one, but the Senate bill omitted it — as well as the size and extent of federal subsidies to help lower-income families afford coverage.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100105/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_overhaul

[ozymandius]

5. US health spending slowed in 2008

WASHINGTON – The U.S. spent an average of $7,681 per person on health care in 2008, for an eye-popping total of $2.3 trillion — even though spending actually slowed dramatically that year because of the recession, a new federal study says.

Health spending didn't slow down as much as the nation's overall economic output, the study said, in keeping with a decades-old trend that has now pushed health care costs to account for over 16 percent of the nation's economy...

The new analysis by economists at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid appears Tuesday in the journal Health Affairs. It found that total national health spending grew 4.4 percent in 2008, the slowest rate of increase since CMS began tracking health spending in 1960. By contrast, the growth rate in 2007 was 6 percent. The study seeks to measure all public and private health expenditures.

Still, the growth of health costs was higher than the overall growth in gross domestic product, which stood at 2.6 percent in 2008 before adjusting for inflation.

Health spending reached 16.2 percent of the gross domestic product in 2008, up from 15.9 percent in 2007. That added up to $2.3 trillion and far higher per-person expenditures than in other industrialized countries.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100105/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_spending

[Roland99]

24. That's good for the GOP. More sick people dying.

Maybe the "impending" 2012 global disaster will finally rid the earth of the worst scourge it's ever known: Republicans.

[ozymandius]

6. Manufacturing posts best showing since 2006

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years in December, its fifth consecutive month of expansion, data showed on Monday, adding to hopes of economic improvement in 2010.

That coincided with other data on Monday showing world factory activity expanded last month at its greatest clip in nearly four years...

The focus, though, was on the Institute for Supply Management's national factory index, which rose to 55.9 in December from 53.6 in November.

That was the highest reading since April 2006, when the index stood at 56.0. A result above 50 indicates expansion...

While the economy still shed jobs through November, the pace of overall losses slowed. Economists polled by Reuters expect data later this week to show employers slashed 8,000 jobs last month after losing 11,000 in November.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100104/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_manufacturing

[ozymandius]

7. Iceland’s President Vetoes Bank Compensation Bill

PARIS — Iceland will not compensate Dutch and British depositors who lost more than $5 billion in a collapsed Icelandic bank unless voters agree to do so in a referendum, the country’s president said on Tuesday.

President Olafur R. Grimsson said in a televised speech in Rejkyavik, capital of the North Atlantic island nation, that he would veto legislation under which Iceland would guarantee loans made by the British and Dutch governments to compensate depositors of Landsbanki’s Icesave unit in their countries.

The decision could jeopardize aid from international lenders intended to help Iceland recover from its recent financial turmoil, as well as undermine the country’s efforts to join the European Union....

Iceland had reached an agreement with Britain and the Netherlands last June, under which it was agreed Iceland would reimburse depositors there for the first €20,887, or about $30,000, lost in each bank account — the minimum they say Iceland is required by treaty to pay.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/06/business/global/06icebank.html

[Robbien]

14. Iceland would be indenturing itself to the UK for decades under that agreement

Or as the Prospect puts it:
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=01&year=2010&base_name=iceland_agrees_to_pay_britain

Iceland Agrees to Pay Britain and the Netherlands the Equivalent of $4.2 Trillion to Make Amends for Its Bankers

The NYT reported on the decision of Iceland's parliament to pay $5 billion to British and Dutch depositors. Since most readers are not familiar with the size of Iceland's economy, it would have been useful to point out that this is approximately equal to 30 percent of Iceland's GDP. That would be approximately $4.2 trillion in the United States.


--------------


Iceland bankster families got rich and bankrupted the country, so now the people of Iceland have to indenture themselves to pay back bankster fraud.

Insanity.

[Po_d Mainiac]

8. Am I the only one hearing voices? :tinhat:

I you won't take all that money and move it from the "sidelines," then we'll force you to.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/government-your-legal-right-redeem-your-money-market-account-has-been-denied
Yet new regulations proposed by the administration, and specifically by the ever-incompetent Securities and Exchange Commission, seek to pull one of these three core pillars from the foundation of the entire money market industry, by changing the primary assumptions of the key Money Market Rule 2a-7. A key proposal in the overhaul of money market regulation suggests that money market fund managers will have the option to "suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets."

All this money is really needed for the banksters to be able to cash out of the stock market bubble.
YMMV

[ozymandius]

10. We looked at that yesterday.

SUMMARY: The Securities and Exchange Commission (‘‘Commission’’ or ‘‘SEC’’) is proposing amendments to certain rules that govern money market funds under the Investment Company Act. The amendments would: Tighten the risk-limiting conditions of rule 2a–7 by, among other things, requiring funds to maintain a portion of their portfolios in instruments that can be readily converted to cash, reducing the weighted average maturity of portfolio holdings, and limiting funds to investing in the highest quality portfolio securities; require money market funds to report their portfolio holdings monthly to the Commission; and permit a money market fund that has ‘‘broken the buck’’ (i.e., re-priced its securities below $1.00 per share) to suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets. In addition, the Commission is seeking comment on other potential changes in our regulation of money market funds, including whether money market funds should, like other types of mutual funds, effect shareholder transactions at the market-based net asset value, i.e., whether they should have ‘‘floating’’ rather than stabilized net asset values. The proposed amendments are designed to make money market funds more resilient to certain short-term market risks, and to provide greater protections for investors in a money market fund that is unable to maintain a stable net asset value per share.

http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2009/ic-28807fr.pdf

---

Then there is this LA Times blog post from 2008:

Money market fund 'breaks the buck' on Lehman IOUs

September 16, 2008 | 4:37 pm

The credit crisis has taken a new and dangerous turn: Shares of a large money market mutual fund have "broken the buck" -- fallen below the standard $1 a share -- because of losses on IOUs from brokerage Lehman Bros. Holdings Inc.

The Reserve Primary Fund in New York, which had $65 billion in assets at the end of August, said it cut its share price to 97 cents after marking down the value of $785 million in Lehman debt securities, following the brokerage’s filing for bankruptcy court protection on Monday. Read the fund's statement here.

The Reserve Primary Fund’s situation apparently was exacerbated as big investors have fled in the last two days, forcing the fund to sell other securities. Assets have dived by more than 60% since Sunday, Bloomberg News reported.

The fund, apparently seeking to dissuade other investors from leaving while it sorts out the situation with its Lehman IOUs, today said it would take up to seven days to meet investors’ redemption requests. Normally, money funds redeem investors’ shares immediately on request.

The fund also said it had valued the Lehman IOUs at zero for the moment. That, too, could be a move to discourage redemptions, because it’s conceivable the securities have some value.

The woes of Reserve Primary Fund -- the nation's oldest money fund -- are sure to set off a public relations blitz by other mutual fund companies to forestall an investor panic.

So, this is an attempt to stave off two very bad circumstances: this SEC proposed rule change should (1) prevent the cannibalization of the MMF holding company; and (2) fulfill redemption requests without destroying the value of other assets if a holding company threatens to "break the buck". Time is the significant factor here. If someone has another reading of this - please post.

[DemReadingDU]

12. More from Jesse

03 January 2010
Is the US Goverment Preparing the Lifeboats for the Next Financial Disaster?

Zero Hedge has an interesting review of proposed rule changes by the SEC and the Obama Administration

Yet new regulations proposed by the administration, and specifically by the ever-incompetent Securities and Exchange Commission, seek to pull one of these three core pillars from the foundation of the entire money market industry, by changing the primary assumptions of the key Money Market Rule 2a-7.

The primary concern seems to be the new ability of money market fund managers to freeze redemptions (withdrawals) of funds at their discretion.

"A key proposal in the overhaul of money market regulation suggests that money market fund managers will have the option to 'suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets.'"
If you have the time, you should sit down and read through the entire essay at ZH, because it is fascinating. I understand that many will not because of the length and density of the piece, which is really not all that bad, and fairly well written as all of their pieces tend to be. I am not so adverse to some of the other changes in the MMFs such as the tightening of durations, but that is more a quibble.

One also has to wonder if and when the government will begin to more aggressively manage the access of private citizens to their 401K's and IRA's and other forms of savings. Or is it just sufficient to manage the things that one might hold in them. Hard to say.

more...
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/01/is-us-goverment-preparing-lifeboats-for.html

[Robbien]

19. That's an interesting idea

The government would have a hard time passing legislation which directly transfers our personal retirement monies into the hands of the elite. This rule could just be a back door way of accomplishing that without any of us being the wiser.

Jesse's site is always a must read for me.

[DemReadingDU]

11. Money Market Funds

We people who have Money Market Funds may some day find we are unable to withdraw our money from MMF, or maybe only withdraw a limited amount. Is there no place safe to keep money. Banks seem iffy too. Maybe cash in the mattress is best after all.

[ozymandius]

13. Seeking Alpha's contributor has some advice.

Avoid Broken Buck Syndrome with Treasuries Money Market Funds

You may have moved to the sidelines with cash to avoid the current market train wreck. If so, that was a good idea. But how safe is your cash?

If the money market fund owns paper from failing companies, it could result in “breaking the buck”. That would mean a capital loss for you.

If you have money in a safe harbor, that harbor should actually be safe. Our opinion is that a truly safe harbor for short-term cash holdings is a 100% Treasuries money market fund.

---

A mattress is 100% safe - save for fires and theft.

As for Mr. Shaw, who penned this piece: I know that he has a material interest in directing people to these funds. So, as always, caveat emptor.

[DemReadingDU]

15. Not even a Treasury MMF is safe, if we aren't allowed to withdraw our money

:(

[ozymandius]

18. The reason why redemptions would be disallowed is the part I have trouble with.

What would be the catalyst for denying the withdrawal? Would the withdrawal be allowed to proceed gradually, as in installments, if it is a very large sum? I am looking for concrete determinations that may not be available at this time. Perhaps these issues would need to be sorted when the SEC deliberates on this proposed rule change.

[DemReadingDU]

21. So everyone doesn't withdraw all their money at the same time

Similar to a bank run. When the economy takes a steep dive (and it will), people are going to panic and attempt to withdraw their money from the banks and/or Money Market Funds. As we all know, there is not enough cash in the world to give everyone what they have deposited in their accounts. So the gov probably is going to limit the amount you can withdraw from the bank, and if MMF rule passes, the gov would also limit the amount you are going to be able to withdraw from Money Market Funds.

Or possibly, totally deny access to withdraw any money from anywhere. Personally, that would anger everyone to the point of guns and pitchforks, so I think that is very remote. But limiting withdrawals to perhaps $1000(?) per month, would more likely satisfy people.


Edit to add, there is precedence in Ohio to limit withdrawals:

March 15, 1985 - Ohio Governor Richard Celeste temporarily halted business at all of state's ailing thrifts;
March 21 - allowed to reopen on with $750 cap on withdrawals (designed to prevent all-out assault on deposits); became one of largest fiscal crises of the 1980s:
http://www.kipnotes.com/SavingsLoans.htm

[ozymandius]

26. That would be the obvious caveat: mass hysteria.

My first reading of this proposed rule change from Seeking Alpha gave me the initial impression that fund managers could withhold money market funds "because they feel like it". That, of course, is unjustifiable.

[Robbien]

29. Or, one day everyone recognizing that the underlying investments are junk

Money market funds are supposed to be invested in "safe" securities. A "safe" security can turn into junk fast.

As they did one day last Sept 2008 when CDS's and ACS's were safe and profitable. The next day toilet paper was worth more than the paper CDS's and ACS's were written on.

[ozymandius]

31. Such was the nature of the tech blowout ten years ago.

Then was the last time I had any interest in owning pieces of any Vanguard fund. The tech stocks, which were just a pig-in-a-poke, imploded. Blue Chips took a sharp hit when stockholders liquidated their positions to cover Nasdaq losses. Bad times were had by all.

[Robbien]

34. Money market investment managers are taking bigger risks these days

or so I read:

http://www.boomermarketadvisor.com/Issues/2010/January/Pages/Everything-ventured-nothing-gained-in-money-funds.aspx

Here we go again. We seemed to have learned little about risk during the worst economic crisis the world has ever seen.

“Faced with a dearth of high-quality, short-term liquid investments in which to invest and low yields, some money-market funds are moving into longer-duration instruments, boosting their risk.” So writes the Wall Street Journal. The paper reports it’s a notable reversal as many money funds had shifted to shorter-term investments in the grip of last year’s panic.

“The pendulum has never swung so quickly from greed to fear and back again,” Peter Crane, president of Crane Data LLC, told the paper.

Average maturities for money funds came down last fall, although perhaps not as sharply as some would have expected, after the industry was shaken by a fund that failed to keep its dollar par value. The average weighted maturity of the 100 largest money-market funds was 47 days in August 2008, and then dipped to 43 days for two months, according to Crane. By February it was back up to pre-crisis levels and, currently, the weighted average maturity of the 100 largest money-market funds is 52 days.

======================

And the government dropped the money market guarantee this month.

No wonder the elites are trying to make sure they can close the door on us if we decide the risk is too great.

[Po_d Mainiac]

20. Put it into the markets!!

With the economy starting to crank up, the only direction for the major index's to move, is up! Get that money off the "sidelines!"

:sarcasm:

And if new money moves into equities, those that blew the bubble will be locking their gains while racing to short everything but the sheets on their beds.

If Pimco's high and corporate income funds are any indicator, someone is walking down the street resembling a full body scanned image.

But YMMV

[Rubble]

41. Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied

this is not an easy read, but oh so very important, this is one of the actual mechanisms where the banks will squeeze you till you bleed

it explains so much of what is/will be happening as the world banking system winds down the hammer



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/government-your-legal-right-redeem-your-money-market-account-has-been-denied

When Henry Paulson publishes his long-awaited memoirs, the one section that will be of most interest to readers, will be the former Goldmanite and Secretary of the Treasury's recollection of what, in his opinion, was the most unpredictable and dire consequence of letting Lehman fail (letting his former employer become the number one undisputed Fixed Income trading entity in the world was quite predictable... plus we doubt it will be a major topic of discussion in Hank's book). We would venture to guess that the Reserve money market fund breaking the buck will be at the very top of the list, as the ensuing "run on the electronic bank" was precisely the 21st century equivalent of what happened to banks in physical form, during the early days of the Geat Depression. Had the lack of confidence in the system persisted for a few more hours, the entire financial world would have likely collapsed, as was so vividly recalled by Rep. Paul Kanjorski, once a barrage of electronic cash withdrawal requests depleted this primary spoke of the entire shadow economy. Ironically, money market funds are supposed to be the stalwart of safety and security among the plethora of global investment alternatives: one need only to look at their returns to see what the presumed composition of their investments is. A case in point, Fidelity's $137 billion Cash Reserves fund has a return of 0.61% YTD, truly nothing to write home about, and a return that would have been easily beaten putting one's money in Treasury Bonds. This is not surprising, as the primary purpose of money markets is to provide virtually instantaneous access to a portfolio of practically risk-free investment alternatives: a typical investor in a money market seeks minute investment risk, no volatility, and instantaneous liquidity, or redeemability. These are the three pillars upon which the entire $3.3 trillion money market industry is based.....................

more at link above

[DemReadingDU]

48. Thanks for your posting

and Welcome to the Stock Market Watch
:hi:

[ozymandius]

9. The Audit: IRS Steps Up Its Oversight Of Tax Firms

WASHINGTON—The Internal Revenue Service said it intends to regulate the legions of American tax-preparation companies, the first time the agency has sought to oversee these businesses. The move could affect how tax returns are prepared for tens of millions of people.

Under the new rules, employees of tax-preparation firms including H&R Block Inc. and Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. will be required to pay a registration fee to the IRS, pass a "competency" exam and have 15 hours of education a year. Previously these employees weren't required to meet federal standards.

The requirements also will apply to hundreds of thousands of independent preparers and mom-and-pop storefronts that offer tax preparation as one of several services. About 60% of U.S. taxpayers use tax preparers, according to the IRS. That number includes certified public accountants, or CPAs, who are already subject to professional standards and aren't covered by the new rules.

The plan will take several years to implement and won't be in effect when taxpayers prepare their 2009 taxes for this April, the IRS said. But starting in 2011, all paid tax preparers will have to register with the IRS and include a unique identification number on any returns they prepare. Preparers will be given three years to pass a competency exam in either individual or small-business taxation.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703580904574638400669497722.html

[truthisfreedom]

17. I saw this coming.

[Festivito]

16. Debt: 12/31/2009 12,311,349,677,512.03 (UP 166,456,660,941.57) (Thu)

(Today we have an end of the month jump at the end of the year no less. Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,811,008,785,487.30 + 4,500,340,892,024.73
UP 83,831,281,729.66 + UP 82,625,379,211.91

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,348,958 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,926.68.
A family of three owes $119,780.04. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 10,096,509,630.43.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,404,107,062.32.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 63 reports in 92 days of FY2010 averaging 6.37B$ per report, 4.36B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,116 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 20.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/31/2009 12,311,349,677,512.03 BHO (UP 1,684,472,628,598.95 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,401,520,674,000.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,592,989,630,544.67 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********

100,971,466,720.31 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4209440&mesg_id=4210249

[Festivito]

47. Debt: 01/04/2010 12,290,238,158,257.13 (DOWN 21,111,519,254.90) (Mon)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Yesterday reported a big jump up that took place at the end of the year, the quarter of course (Q1 for FY'10), and the decade as well, so today begins the smaller ups and downs. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,803,905,887,172.98 + 4,486,332,271,084.15
DOWN 7,102,898,314.32 + DOWN 14,008,620,940.58

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,383,518 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,853.75.
A family of three owes $119,561.24. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 10,139,701,835.41.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,759,801,223.60.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,541,743,119.62.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 64 reports in 96 days of FY2010 averaging 5.94B$ per report, 3.96B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,112 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 19.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/04/2010 12,290,238,158,257.13 BHO (UP 1,663,361,109,344.05 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,380,409,154,745.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,446,347,307,104.91 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon

81,604,334,447.63 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4210587&mesg_id=4210623

[Dr.Phool]

22. Shamelessly stolen from KoKo in editorials.

It's long, but a must watch.

http://www.democracynow.org/blog/2009/12/18/chris_hedges

I know everyone here will appreciate this. I love Chris Hedges.

[ozymandius]

28. So much of our political discourse is focused on its showbiz aspect.

Kudos for Chris Hedges to remind us that issues of greater importance deserve our attention.

[bread_and_roses]

25. Do I remember correctly that the day before the NY holiday the market fell 100+?

...and yesterday rose 100+? More "I'll make money today, you make money tomorrow?" I just think the whole thing is a joke - its like an inept stage magician with utter contempt for the audience, not caring if they see through the tricks because there's no other show in town. I don't understand all the stuff upthread - actually, understand next to nothing written in this thread generally, just an old socialist here (I'd say communist but the word has too many politically authoritarian connotations) who thinks it's all a scam but worth keeping an eye on for it's window into the ruling class (Noam Chomsky has said something to the effect that you can learn everything you need to know about what the Oligarchs are up to by reading the Wall Street Journal)- and that's why I like you Marketeers!.

[ozymandius]

27. Well, I am sure this kind of movement is pure hell for index funds.

How can anyone trade in this kind of market with volatile extremes like this? The markets are irrational. Period.

One of my colleagues teaches Economics and Psychology. Once I wondered where the connection is - but now I know. Long term observation of the stock markets is an exercise in behavioral psychology. 2+2 does not always equal 4.

[CatholicEdHead]

40. Yep, most of the drop was the last hour on the 31st

and most of the gain was the first hour on the 4th. It was flat except for that last hour decline and first hour incline. :crazy:

[ozymandius]

30. Krugman: 30% to 40% Chance of 2010 Recession

From Bloomberg: Krugman Sees 30-40% Chance of U.S. Recession in 2010

“ is not a low probability event, 30 to 40 percent chance,” Krugman said today in an interview in Atlanta, where he was attending an economics conference. “The chance that we will have growth slowing enough that unemployment ticks up again I would say is better than even.”

On the recession probabilities, I think Professor Krugman is warning policy makers about complacency, similar to his Monday column: That 1937 Feeling.

a little bit more...

[ozymandius]

33. Krugman: Bernanke in Atlanta

Ben Bernanke gave a somewhat odd speech at the American Economic Association meetings. Not a bad speech, and certainly not stupid. But defensive, I think, in the wrong way...

...Bernanke should have been more forthright about the Fed’s undoubted failures: Greenspan’s rejection of advice about the risks of subprime lending, and the failure of top officials, BB included, to recognize the housing bubble in real time.

And I would add that focusing on unconventional mortgages is awfully 2007. We now know that many perfectly conventional mortgages went bust; we know that commercial real estate was at least as overblown as housing. Yes, you can argue that subprime helped inflate a general bubble; but it’s far from clear that it played a central role.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/bernanke-in-atlanta/

[Demeter]

37. more like 80-90%, Paul, this sucker's gonna blow

[ozymandius]

35. Casino's open

9:57
Dow 10,544.81 39.15 (0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,305.11 3.31 (0.14%)
S&P 500 1,131.93 1.06 (0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 37.86% 0.55
NYSE Volume 659,206,437.5
Nasdaq Volume 261,825,656.25

09:45 am : The broader market has slipped into the red during the first few minutes of action. Financials (+0.4%) and materials stocks (+0.1%) make up the only two sectors that have managed to remain in positive territory. They were also among the best performers in the previous session.

The materials sector's gain, though modest, comes in the face of a firmer dollar. The greenback has gained ground against competing currencies so that the Dollar Index is up to a fractional gain after it had traded with a modest loss ahead of the opening bell. DJ30 -41.12 NASDAQ -6.75 SP500 -1.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 785/163 mln/1440 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1111/92 mln/1505

[Tansy_Gold]

36. And to prove it, Krugman's giving odds. Scary. n/t

[Dr.Phool]

38. Denninger. Hint to other nations: Here's the bill.

For your coddling of the banker cabal, that is.

Yes, that's my view. This sort of bluster and bullshit must not stand:

Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos would not be drawn into speculation on steps against Iceland. "But this can't go on forever. We want our money back. We negotiated reasonably."

Mr. Bos, go perform an indecent act on yourself.

You, along with the rest of the "western world", were complicit in and willing partners with the criminal banking cabal that ripped off the entire world with their worthless securities.

You "negotiated" for the right to steal even more after you failed to lock up the banksters for their criminal conduct - for intentional concealment and fraud in their "marketing" of these securities to investors worldwide.

You, just as with those here in Washington DC, were fully complicit in the looting of the public that took place over the last decade and more.

YOUR GOVERNMENT has allowed institutions in your nation (and elsewhere) to claim that "debt is output" and that speculation constitutes GDP. That's a willful, knowing lie.

Britain is also weighing in with the following threat:

Myners (the British Financial Services Minister) told the BBC that if Iceland voted against the deal, it would cut itself off from the global financial system and from International Monetary Fund aid for its economy, one of the worst hit by the world bank crisis.

'The Icelandic people, if they were to reach that conclusion, would effectively be saying that Iceland does not want to be part of the international financial system, that Iceland doesn't want to have access to multi-national, national and bilateral funding and doesn't want to be regarded as a safe counter-party with whom to do business,' Myners said.

Mr. Myners, with all due respect (that is, none), may you be fornicated by a stallion.

"The City" has for literal hundreds of years been the hotbed of bankster corruption, greed and fraud. Your nation is on record (in The Congressional Record no less!) as having sent bankster "representatives" over to this country shortly after it was formed for the explicit purpose of bribing our Congress into being recaptured after you lost the Revolutionary War!

I, for one, am tired of this game of "captured government" and it appears so is Iceland and its people.

It's about damn time.

You and your ilk had every ability to stop the fraud and looting over the last several decades. You could have prevented the blowing of your own property bubble and destruction of your federal budget, along with the insane expansion of leverage and "yield seeking" through fraudulent misrepresentation of risk and leverage but you didn't do so. Instead you, like the so-called "government regulators" in The United States, knelt before the banking cartels and performed obscene acts so frequently that you wore out sets of kneepads at a rate that kept Home Depot's profit margins at a record during the decade of the 2000s.

Now that the bubble has burst you're whining that you're going to have to eat the product of your own cooking and willful blindness.

To that I say: Tough crap.

Start locking up the jackasses who did this to the global economy instead of kneeling before Zod for yet more obscenities. You know who they are. Just walk down any of your much-vaunted "streets" in "The City" and where you see a $5,000 suit apply a pair of handcuffs.

If you won't and don't I predict that it will not be long before the reaction of the Icelandic people spreads - including to the UK.

Whether the people of your country will give you the opportunity to do the right thing when, not if that sentiment spreads is something you may wish to ponder.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

--------------------------------------

From what I've read, the banksters want to put the people of Iceland on the hook for the equivalent of about 30% of their GDP.

[Robbien]

39. The elites of Iceland got together with the Dutch & UK elites and negotiated

to enslave the people of Iceland.

Negotiated in good faith, bah!

A good Denninger rant is exactly what was needed to shed light on what is happening to Iceland.

[Tansy_Gold]

42. Maybe there's a reason Iceland has one of the world's oldest parliaments,

if not THE oldest.

They also have close to 90% participation in elections.

Okay, so it's a little teeny tiny country and it's cold, but at least it doesn't seem to have frozen ALL their brains.




Tansy Gold, with apologies to all because it's 70 degrees in Apache Junction.

[Robbien]

44. It probably didn't help when the UK labelled Iceland a terrorist group

and invoked anti-terror laws against Iceland in its initial response to the failure of Icelandic banks.

One shouldn't piss off the guys who are in control of your cash.









70 degrees, humpf.

Over here on the north side of Chicago our animals are having fits about going out to pee. It is so cold that they only get a few steps away from the door before they are racing back begging to come back inside. We've put down newspapers by the back door cause it sure does look as if we may be having a few "accidents" later tonight.

[Dr.Phool]

45. I'm looking for Icebergs in Tampa Bay!

Frickin' 47 degrees out there!

[Dr.Phool]

43. There's a few more posted on his site today.

I particularly liked this picture from Iceland today.





Have you noticed that over the last year or so, some of the new leftist governments in South America are refusing to honor some contracts that their former dictators had signed, giving away their resources to Bechtel and the likes?

[Demeter]

49. Better than a Debt Jubilee--Reneg on the Fraud!

[DemReadingDU]

50. more pictures of Icelanders

1/5/10 The Torches Come Out in Iceland
The pictures below are from one of the protests that lead the President to veto the bill. Remember all that talk about torches and pitchforks? Well, Iceland went ahead and broke out the torches (ok - they're flares, technically):
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/iceland-england-bailout-protests/2252

1/5/10 Setback in Reykjavik
In 2008, thousands of Dutch citizens and city corporations saw their savings vanish into thin air when the Icelandic bank IceSave collapsed. The Dutch state paid €1.3 billion in compensation to most Dutch victims and Britain paid €2.5 billion. Iceland vowed it would repay the amounts in full, since it was responsible for the losses under the European deposit banking system.

On Tuesday, however, President Grimsson announced he had refused to sign a law to enable the repayment. It has cast his country into what seems to be a full-blown constitutional crisis, since both the nation's parliament and the rest of its government had already approved the repayment plan.

Under Icelandic law, the president is required to sign all legislation approved by parliament. Refusals to do so are extremely rare. President Grimsson, who is now serving a fourth term in the office he has held since 1996, last did so in 2004 when he refused to approve a new media law.

In the last few days, the president had said he needed more time to come to a final decision on the repayment bill, which had passed through parliament last Wednesday with a slim 33-30 majority. The government had reached a deal with Britain and the Netherlands in June to repay the lost savings, but it required parliamentary approval.

On Dec. 31, 52,000 Icelanders presented him with a petition protesting the law. By Tuesday afternoon, that number had grown to 62,282, representing close to a quarter of the island nation's entire population.

Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir, who threatened to step down if parliament did not approve the repayment bill, has been left with two options. She can either withdraw the bill or call for a public referendum on the matter.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,670294,00.html
photo gallery, 6 pictures
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-50429.html


One of these days, there will be protests in America against the banksters, probably not until after the banksters have stealthily taken our remaining wealth.

[Tansy_Gold]

51. Who has the money? Seriously.

That money went somewhere. Where did it go? Who has it?

"In 2008, thousands of Dutch citizens and city corporations saw their savings vanish into thin air when the Icelandic bank IceSave collapsed."

There was money at one point, the money that the Dutch citizens and city corporations had saved. It didn't "vanish into thin air." It went somewhere. Into someone else's bank account? Whose?


No one seems to be asking that question.



Tansy Gold is.

[Robbien]

52. The money went to the same players

that the lost money in US/UK/European/Asian/Etc banks went to. Banksters got some, hedges got some, venture capitalists got some, of course the other elites and politicians got some.

The combined net worth of the Forbes 400 was $738 billion on September 1, 1998. By June 2008 these rich guys were worth 1.57 trillion. And that's just the money which can be counted, not secreted away in some offshore account or squirreled away in secret trusts, foundations etc.

And that's just the top 400. There are several million of these rich elites floating around the planet with extra cash in their pockets from this game of bank/investment fraud and deceit. {By the way, the median net worth of the American household held steady during the decade.)



I see Iceland as just a smaller version of what happened here. The only difference being Iceland doesn't have a printing press or a federal treasury with which to bailout their banks. The people of Iceland are being asked to directly bail them out.

[kickysnana]

46. +1