STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 7

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 7, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 6, 2010

Dow... 10,573.68 +1.66 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq... 2,301.09 -7.62 (-0.33%)
S&P 500... 1,137.14 +0.62 (+0.05%)
Gold future... 1,137 +18.30 (+1.64%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.82 +0.06 (+1.62%)
30-Year Bond 4.69 +0.08 (+1.69%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:
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Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman    William Black: This Economic Disaster

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Field of Uncertainties
If you provide it, will they come?
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

In the 1989 film, Field of Dreams, an Iowa farmer hears a voice in his corn field that says, “If you build it, he will come,” in which building a baseball field on his farm leads to a visitation by his father who passed on. Fed Chairman Mr. Bernanke is likely hearing the voices of past economic cycles that say, “If you provide it, they will come,” in which lowering interest rates and providing liquidity leads to the consumer and corporate sectors coming to the debt trough to lever up their balance sheets. While this may have worked in the past it is unlikely to prove as successful this time around.

The Federal Reserve conducts a quarterly opinion survey of the banking sector which provides a great snapshot in terms of the availability and demand for credit (Click for link to Fed report). Typically, as the economy slows down banks begin to tighten lending standards which leads to a decrease in the demand for loans. Conversely, as the economy recovers banks ease lending standards which makes credit more affordable and demand for loans increases. As seen in the figure below, lending standards rose leading up to the last three recessions and then decreased as the economy recovered. Currently the net percentage of banks are still tightening lending standards, though well off the highs seen in 2009 when 60% to 80% of banks were tightening standards for various forms of credit.

-chart-

The deleveraging cycle will likely continue into the middle the decade according to demographics. Demographics play a key role in terms of the aggregate consumption levels for an economy. The age cohort that has the most discretionary income to spend are those that are in their prime working years (35-49) and the ratio of this cohort relative to the younger (20-34) or older (65+) cohorts contributes to the overall level of consumption relative to economic activity (GDP). As demographics are relatively easy to model, we can assume that given the decline in the higher discretionary income cohort (35-49) relative to the lower wage (20-34) cohort that will continue until about 2014-2015 that consumption levels relative to GDP will also continue to decline for several more years.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 01/02
Briefing.com 455K
Consensus 440K
Prior 432K

08:30 Continuing Claims 12/26
Briefing.com 4900K
Consensus 4975K
Prior 4981K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

21. Initial Claims @ 434,000 - last wk rev'd up 1k - 10.6 million on long-term unemployment

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-edge-up-1000-to-434000-2010-01-07-83100

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of people filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits was essentially unchanged in the week of Jan. 2, rising by just 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 434,000 after large declines the previous two weeks, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The total number of people collecting unemployment benefits of any kind, including extended federal benefits but not seasonally adjusted, rose by 518,100 in the week of Dec. 19 to 10.6 million.

The not-seasonally-adjusted increase in total claims was driven by the recent expansion of extended benefits under a new federal law that allows up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits to be paid.

The number of people collecting under the extended federal program rose by 620,000 to a record 5.5 million. Not all states have their extended programs up and running yet.

In the regular state program, initial claims rose by a seasonally adjusted 1,000 to 434,000 last week, the government agency said, based on state-by-state reports from unemployment offices. The previous week's figure was revised higher by 1,000 to 433,000. Read the full report on the Labor Department Web site.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected initial claims to drop to about 410,000. See our complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.

The four-week average of initial claims -- often favored by analysts because it smoothes out one-time distortions caused by bad weather, holidays and strikes -- fell by 10,250 to 450,250. That's the lowest since September 2008, just before the near-collapse of the financial system.

The number of people collecting regular state benefits fell by 179,000 in the week ending Dec. 26 to a seasonally adjusted 4.8 million, the lowest in nearly a year.

Compared with a year ago, initial claims are down 15%, while state continuing claims are up 13%.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

24. But. . . . but. . . . .but. . . .

Oh, never mind.

I forgot. I'm in SMW. I don't have to argue with the crazies. :evilgrin:



:hi:


Tansy Gold

[Dr.Phool]

25. We had a good one going last night!

You shoulda been there.

"Ignored" was pretty incensed about a post Allentown Jake did on the ADP numbers and started a copycat thread in GD-P trying to spin the numbers. I was sitting around sipping Stoli and enjoying rattling some cages.

And why do they keep deleting my posts when I call them colostomy-baggers, cos they're full of shit?

[Tansy_Gold]

29. I saw that one.

I think I'd been in it briefly, then saw all the ignoreds and figured I'd best stay away.

I had a rare day off yesterday and put it to good use on miscellaneous projects that had been piling up, so my stress level was lower than usual. No sense raising it unnecessarily by venturing into a flame fest.

However, yesterday morning I had the rare pleasure :sarcasm: of listening to a couple of acquaintances go off about "The Crumbling of America" which they had seen tv. They were appalled, carrying on about how all that money was given to the banks and none spent on infrastructure. Deadpan, I told them that the money had to go to the rich because they're more important. Their response? "Oh, okay."





Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls below $83 as month-long rally stalls

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $83 a barrel Thursday in Asia as investors worried a 20 percent rally in the last few weeks isn't justified amid sluggish U.S. crude demand...

Investors have brushed off signs of weak U.S. oil demand while bidding up crude prices from $69 a barrel in mid-December. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude supplies rose last week.

"Above the $83 level, we would be viewing this price advance as falling within the 'bubble' category, a scenario that could play out in a much sharper than expected price plunge," Galena Illinois-based Ritterbusch and Associates said in a report....

In other Nymex trading in February contracts, heating oil fell 0.4 cent to $2.20 a gallon and gasoline dropped 0.2 cent to $2.134 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 3.2 cents to $6.04.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Hugin]

36. Anybody else's gasoline go up $0.12/gallon yesterday?

?

[Demeter]

39. Try last week

Michigan always gets hit harder and faster--'cause we're in a depression.

[DemReadingDU]

52. $2.79 in SW Ohio

:(

[ozymandius]

4. Fed's Bullard: U.S. jobless rate to start falling

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – The labor market in the United States is improving and the economy is close to the point when the unemployment rate will start to fall, a top U.S. Federal Reserve official said on Thursday.

James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, also said that U.S. housing prices were stabilizing and that housing starts were likely to steady and cease to be a drag on growth....

Bullard played down price pressures facing the United States in the near term, saying that the Fed's moves to pump liquidity into the economy were not an inflationary concern.

He did, however, say the Fed's asset purchase program could fuel a risk of inflation over the medium term...

Bullard said that the Fed would gradually wind down its MBS buying as it did with its purchases of Treasuries, and so the withdrawal should have little negative impact on the housing market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100107/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_bullard

---

Disturbing thing is: Hoenig, and not Bullard, seems to be the only Fed president who understands that continued purchase of toxic MBS paper only encourages more bank recklessness.

[Demeter]

11. Unemployment's Gonna Fall, Is It?

Is Bullard expecting swine flu to decrease the ranks of the jobless?

[ozymandius]

5. Service sector growing again, but new jobs are few

NEW YORK – A gauge of the U.S. service sector returned to growth last month, aided by the holiday season's retail sales. The expansion reflected a slowly improving economy — but it was too slight to generate much hiring.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private trade group, said Wednesday its service index rose to 50.1 in December from 48.7 in November. A level above 50 signals growth. Seven industries out of 18 reported growth, led by agriculture and retail.

The ISM's employment gauge, which hasn't grown in two years, shrank again in December, though at a slower pace than in November. It reached 44 in December, compared with 41.6 a month earlier....

The ISM said the four service-sector groups that added jobs in December were retail, finance and insurance, public administration and a category of other services. Retailers added temporary workers, as they normally do for holiday shopping seasons....

The Labor Department reported last month that the service sector added jobs in November, even though that wasn't reflected in the ISM survey. The service sector is so large that the ISM survey may not be effective in calculating changes in employment, Mulraine said. He predicts the economy will post a net increase of 25,000 jobs for December.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100106/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

[ozymandius]

6. World stock markets slip as mixed US data weigh

ONG KONG – World stock markets retreated Thursday as mixed reports about the U.S. economy dented confidence in the global turnaround.

After most Asian markets racked up modest losses, European shares traded lower early going. The dollar edged up against the yen and the euro, while oil prices hovered near $83 a barrel....

One report pointed to marginal growth in the country's services industries in December. However, separate figures showed private sector companies slashed 84,000 jobs last month....

As trade got under way in Europe. Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.3 percent, Germany's DAX was down 0.5 percent France's CAC-40 dropped 0.7 percent. Futures augured modest losses Thursday on Wall Street. S&P futures fell 3.4 points, or 0.3 percent, to 1,129.60 and Dow futures were off 42, or 0.4 percent, to 10,474.

In Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 stock average lost 49.79, or 0.5 percent, to 10,681.66, helped by a softer yen as Japan's new finance minister said the country's currency should be weaker. Analysts said the appointment, made after the former minister resigned due to health problems, had limited impact on the market with investors taking a wait-and-see stance.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100107/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

7. AP sources: Obama backs high-end health plan tax

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama signaled to House Democratic leaders Wednesday that they'll have to drop their opposition to taxing high-end health insurance plans to pay for health coverage for millions of uninsured Americans.

In a meeting at the White House, Obama expressed his preference for the insurance tax contained in the Senate's health overhaul bill, but largely opposed by House Democrats and organized labor, Democratic aides said. The aides spoke on condition of anonymity because the meeting was private.

House Democrats want to raise income taxes on high-income individuals instead and are reluctant to abandon that approach, while recognizing that they will likely have to bend on that and other issues so that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., can maintain his fragile 60-vote majority support for the bill....

The House wants to increase income taxes on individuals making more than $500,000 and couples over $1 million, which would raise $460 billion over 10 years to pay for the bill. The Senate wants to tax insurance companies on plans valued at over $8,500 for individuals and $23,000 for couples, raising $150 billion. Most analysts say the insurance tax would be passed on to consumers, and organized labor is strongly opposed, as are House Democrats, some of whom contend that the tax would violate Obama's campaign pledge not to tax the middle class.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100107/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_overhaul

---

To the last point in bold: indeed. Who would ever believe that insurance companies would not either lower the value (as in coverage) of its insurance plans or increase the rates policyholders would have to pay? If I were a callous bastard in charge of a health insurance company - these two angles would be options to consider.

[Demeter]

12. Why is the US Playing Desdemona to Barack's Othello?

Makes one go hmmmmm.

[Dr.Phool]

30. Harry Reid can kiss his 60 vote majority good-bye.

And as far as I'm concerned, Obama is already a lame duck. These Blue Dog-DLC-New Democrat slime are going to find out just how bad they don't need union support in the next two elections.

It's just my opinion, but I think this whole fiasco is what convinced Dorgan not to run again. Especially after they stripped the public option and his re-importation amendment. He evidently don't like the people he has to associate with anymore. I don't blame him.

[Demeter]

42. I Agree. It Ain't Much of a Majority If Its Members Are Fleeing

so as to not get caught when the ship of state is swamped by the perfect storm.

[ozymandius]

8. Roubini v. Gross on Outlook for 2010

From Naked Capitalism:

I saw this item on RGE Monitor (Nouriel Roubini’s blog/economic analysis website) and was gobsmacked:

Greetings from RGE!

A couple months ago, in a widely read FT op-ed, Nouriel Roubini warned that the “mother of all carry trades,” one funded in U.S. dollar denominated debt, could pump up asset bubbles around the world…

When uncovered interest rate parities break, investors can borrow money in a low interest rate currency (like the U.S. dollar), then loan it out again in a currency with higher interest rates. The “carry,” or the return from this investment, equals the difference in yield between the funding currency instrument and the destination currency instrument. “Positive carry” occurs when the interest rate received surpasses the interest rate paid to fund the investment. “Negative carry” is the opposite. Because the carry from a single trade is often small, carry trades are usually conducted in large volumes through leverage or are held for relatively long periods of time (months or years) so that the small amount of rollover interest collected on a daily basis can add up to a worthwhile amount of passive income.

As both new RGE reports highlight, we expect the carry trade to heat up as 2010 progresses, as policymakers hold rates at zero or low levels in many advanced economies, while inflation leads to further rate hikes in emerging market and commodity-driven economies. We encourage clients to examine these papers for more details on hot carry trade destinations for 2010.

Yves here. Ahem, this sounds like a pretty aggressive call to follow a global momentum trade fuelled by cheap liquidity. Roubini was on the opposite side of this call last time. He now argues for riding the bubble and (presumably) plans to people when to get out. The problem is that a lot of investors in 2007 knew the markets were overheated, yet were confident they could get out in time. And we know how that movie ended. Chuck Prince couldn’t get to the exit fast enough when the music stopped. Why should this time be any different?

Reader Gary sent a copy of Bill Gross’ January newsletter, which is not yet on line. Gross also sees the markets as liquidity driven, and reaches a conclusion that differs from RGE Monitor’s:

….the shifting of private investment dollars to more fiscally responsible government bond markets may make for a very real outcome in 2010 and beyond. Additionally, if exit strategies proceed as planned, all U.S. and U.K. asset markets may suffer from the absence of the near $2 trillion of government checks written in 2009. It seems no coincidence that stocks, high yield bonds, and other risk assets have thrived since early March, just as this “juice” was being squeezed into financial markets. If so, then most “carry” trades in credit, duration, and currency space may be at risk in the first half of 2010 as the markets readjust to the absence of their “sugar daddy.” There’s no tellin’ where the money went? Not exactly, but it’s left a suspicious trail. Market returns may not be “so fine” in 2010. (boldface his)

The way to square the circle is that RGE believes the generous liquidity support will continue:

But we expect carry trades to resume in 2010 as policy rates stay at or near zero in the major economies and inflation leads to further EM and commodity-country rate hikes….We expect the Fed to stay on hold throughout 2010 at this writing, but the pricing of Fed hikes will remain volatile, driven by the data flow.

Gross, by contrast argues that if the powers that be stick to their plans (note the if), risk-seeking trades will suffer.

more at link...

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/01/roubini-v-gross-on-outlook-for-2010.html

[ozymandius]

9. Geithner’s New York Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, then led by Timothy Geithner, told American International Group Inc. to withhold details from the public about the bailed-out insurer’s payments to banks during the depths of the financial crisis, e-mails between the company and its regulator show.

AIG said in a draft of a regulatory filing that the insurer paid banks, which included Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA, 100 cents on the dollar for credit-default swaps they bought from the firm. The New York Fed crossed out the reference, according to the e-mails, and AIG excluded the language when the filing was made public on Dec. 24, 2008. The e-mails were obtained by Representative Darrell Issa, ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

The New York Fed took over negotiations between AIG and the banks in November 2008 as losses on the swaps, which were contracts tied to subprime home loans, threatened to swamp the insurer weeks after its taxpayer-funded rescue. The regulator decided that Goldman Sachs and more than a dozen banks would be fully repaid for $62.1 billion of the swaps, prompting lawmakers to call the AIG rescue a “backdoor bailout” of financial firms.

“It appears that the New York Fed deliberately pressured AIG to restrict and delay the disclosure of important information,” said Issa, a California Republican. Taxpayers “deserve full and complete disclosure under our nation’s securities laws, not the withholding of politically inconvenient information.” President Barack Obama selected Geithner as Treasury secretary, a post he took last year....

The e-mails span five months starting in November 2008 and include requests from the New York Fed to withhold documents and delay disclosures. The correspondence includes e-mails between AIG’s Shannon and attorneys at the New York Fed and its law firm, Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP. Tom Orewyler, a spokesman for Davis Polk in New York, declined to comment as did Shannon.

According to Shannon’s e-mails obtained by Issa, the New York Fed suggested that AIG refrain in a filing from mentioning so-called synthetic collateralized debt obligations, which bundled derivative contracts rather than actual loans.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXIvW4igKV38&pos=1

---

This man is an embarrassment and a liability. Should the letter and spirit of this report be true to the case that Geithner misled the public and shareholders by encouraging AIG to withhold damaging information - plus looting public funds to cover up his own lack of oversight - then he should be tossed out on his ear post haste!

[DemReadingDU]

16. But that's his job, looting public funds

edit to add:
:sarcasm:



getting caught wasn't supposed to happen

[Robbien]

18. Ha!

"getting caught wasn't supposed to happen"--ha!


And look how the established media is trying to hide the revelation. Putting this explosive article under a boring headline such as "Geithner’s New York Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure". That title sure does make the reader really really eager to continue reading.


Limit? The man literally crossed out all references that AIG was turning over taxpayer money to Goldman needlessly. How do those actions justify such pansy terms in the headline as Limit and swaps disclosure?

[Roland99]

17. Tossed out of his post and tossed *into* a Federal penitentiary!

[Po_d Mainiac]

20. Joe Cassano should join him..

Explains why Cassano hasn't found his slippery ass in a courtroom. :FRSP:

[Robbien]

40. A new rule went into effect January 5, 2009 which says its okay for companies to lie

as long as a Federal Agency tells you to do so, and that Federal Agency discloses his actions to a select Senate committee a year after the fact.

All in the interests of "matters concerning the national security of the United States".

See this article at Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/permanent-select-committee-financial-misclosure

The Permanent Select Committee on Financial Misclosure

[Roland99]

44. Gotta love all these ex post facto laws surrounding this financial mess.

[DemReadingDU]

37. Ritholtz has emails!

1/7/10 E-mails from N.Y. Fed to A.I.G. to Not Disclose Counterparty Payments
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/e-mails-from-n-y-fed-to-a-i-g-to-not-disclose-counterparty-payments/

[Loge23]

41. Potential watershed here

If the report is true - and I question anything the re pubs come up with - this could be a catastrophic event for the administration.
We all knew Geithner was a tool, an incompetent one at that, but direct involvement in a fraud? That, my friends, is a shoe waiting to drop.

[Demeter]

43. There Are So Many Shoes Suspended in Space

It looks like a Harry Potter movie where the candles are levitating in the Great Hall....

[Demeter]

10. Good Morning, Ozy!

Did you know it could rain when the air temp is 24F? Neither did I until this morning. Course, it freezes as soon as it hits anything.

Survived the route, survived half the Kid's 2 hour hospital tests...I'm on a roll this week.

Robert Rubin is sure making a name for himself. Unfortunately, it's unprintable.

[ozymandius]

13. Good morning, Demeter.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Not just Rubin - but also Geithner is making an unmentionable name for himself with the AIG fiasco.

BTW - I did not know that rain could fall when it's 24º outside. Quite weird. We're expecting a bit of wintery precipitation way down here in Georgia today and tonight.

I'm very sorry to hear abut your daughter's hospital visit. Your resilient spirit emerges from your words.

:hi:

[Po_d Mainiac]

19. Freezing rain is actually very common.

Think of 2 right triangles stacked on top of each other. The top would symbolize the warmer air mass where the rain is forming. The lower being the colder air. (cold air is heavier than warm air) If the height of the colder air is slight, the rain stays liquid, but will freeze on contact. If the colder air mass has some elevation, the rain will freeze to form sleet.

[UpInArms]

33. 24F would be a heat wave here - I'm looking forward to 21F on Sunday

here's our weather advisory:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST SATURDAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* SNOWFALL...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON TODAY WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES. IN MORE
OPEN RURAL AREAS...THE DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ROADS WILL
ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ON NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ROADWAYS.

* DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL VALUES OF
10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY...AND
WILL SINK TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW TONIGHT. WELL AFTER THE
BLOWING SNOW COMES TO AN END TODAY...THESE BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION FOR ANYONE CAUGHT OUTDOORS AND UNPROTECTED
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES.

:scared:

[Festivito]

14. Debt: 01/05/2010 12,303,300,925,702.18 (UP 13,062,767,445.05) (Tue)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,804,260,234,037.82 + 4,499,040,691,664.36
UP 354,346,864.84 + UP 12,708,420,580.21

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,392,158 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,894.99.
A family of three owes $119,684.96. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 10,278,895,435.86.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,195,226,805.10.
The average for the last 32 days would be 6,745,525,129.78.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 65 reports in 97 days of FY2010 averaging 6.05B$ per report, 4.06B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,111 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 19.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/05/2010 12,303,300,925,702.18 BHO (UP 1,676,423,876,789.10 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,393,471,922,190.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,480,590,222,675.22 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********

81,917,653,544.33 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4212144&mesg_id=4212164

[Festivito]

51. Debt: 01/06/2010 12,302,080,159,963.01 (DOWN 1,220,765,739.17) (Wed)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,804,384,050,405.01 + 4,497,696,109,558.00
UP 123,816,367.19 + DOWN 1,344,582,106.36

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,400,798 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,889.91.
A family of three owes $119,669.73. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 9,756,183,564.27.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,154,534,613.80.
The average for the last 33 days would be 6,504,122,376.18.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 66 reports in 98 days of FY2010 averaging 5.94B$ per report, 4.00B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,110 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 19.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/06/2010 12,302,080,159,963.01 BHO (UP 1,675,203,111,049.93 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,392,251,156,451.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,460,935,429,640.05 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********
01/06/2010 +000,123,816,367.19 ------------********

94,165,288,126.47 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4214022&mesg_id=4214096

[Dr.Phool]

15. G'morning folks.

From down here in Southern Siberia. I see some frost on the lawn this morning. It must be a lot worse inland. I'm only about 3 miles from the Gulf, and temps are about 20 degrees lower in Land O Lakes, 20 miles east.

Obama seems hell bent on destroying the strawberry crop this year. He does control the weather doesn't he? I hope he takes out that bougainvillea plant in the back yard while he's at it. But, I think that thing is too evil for even him.

[Tansy_Gold]

27. OH, but I LOVE bougainvilleas!

The big one just outside my office window took a hit from the frost a couple weeks ago but some sheltered portions are still blooming and may continue through the winter -- not likely -- unless we get another frost -- quite likely.

Chilly here right now and slightly overcast but high expected to hit 70 or so by afternoon.

Sorry!




Tansy Gold

[Dr.Phool]

32. They look nice.

But wear a suit of armor when you try to trim those things.

[AnneD]

34. That was one of the surprises when I went to India.....

Bougainvilleas are native there and are beautiful. India is like that-so many uniquely beautiful thing but so many dangerous things: flowers with spikes, beautiful rivers with crocks and snakes. It is much more dangerous than here. It was a long time before Hubby would go camping. Even the concept of camping was such an anathema to him.

[DemReadingDU]

38. never heard of bougainvilleas

I don't think they grow in Ohio
:P

[AnneD]

45. They are a climbing shrubs.....

with brightly magenta coloured flowers and nasty thorns much like mesquite thorns.

http://home-and-garden.webshots.com/photo/1012436358016072530DtCnyfdcUI

[Tansy_Gold]

46. I love my mesquites, too. But the worst, the absolute worst thorns of all,

is the ironwood. I have a baby one in the front and it is deadly. But they are also just about the single most gorgeous tree in the desert. Of course, this one won't really come into its own for another 150-200 years. . . . .







TG

[Dr.Phool]

47. I think the freeze got it.

The flowers are turning brown. I'll cut it down to the ground again, and it will come back.

I didn't think we had a freeze, but I spotted some ice in the birdbath this morning. My habanero peppers seem to have survived in the topsy-turvys. But, I don't think anything that hot can freeze.

[Tansy_Gold]

48. It will come back better if you leave the brown stuff on, or so I've been told

Cutting it down exposes the raw ends to additional cold. We're pretty sure that's why three of my original six bit the dust two winters ago -- SOMEONE (not I!) didn't like the looks of the brown sticks and cut 'em all back.

[Dr.Phool]

49. The thing is huge.

It sits next to a 12x24 shed I use for a gym, and it's almost as big.

[AnneD]

50. Tansy is correct....

Mom cuts her's back in the spring. They are tropical but her's has endured some AZ. winters with snow and ice.

Mesquites are nice too. The blooms smell sweet and make delicious honey, and the wood....well enough said.

FYI Thorns are modified leaves for plants in arid regions. They have less surface area than regular flat leaves so the plant conserves water, but they perform the same functions as leaves on trees.

[Robbien]

22. Ponzi suspect Elkinson had prior woes

His company, Northeast Sales, was previously bankrupt in ’92

When FBI agents tracked down Framingham resident Richard Elkinson to arrest him on charges of allegedly running a $29 million Ponzi scheme, they found him at a casino in Mississippi and loaded with money, authorities said yesterday.

These and other details about Elkinson’s gambling interests, as well as a prior bankruptcy filing, emerged yesterday, one day after he was arrested and charged with bilking 130 investors, many from Massachusetts, in a so-called affinity scheme that recruits clients from the same social networks.

. . .

Authorities said that Elkinson raised funds by giving investors promissory notes paying as much as 13 percent interest to finance a company that purportedly supplied uniforms to governments and large organizations.

. . .

The Elkinson case has echoes of the Bernard Madoff scandal, in which many of the victims of the New York investor knew each other socially and were referred to Madoff by friends or acquaintances.

In Elkinson’s case, the alleged victims include older Jewish investors, regulators said. Many of the investors had direct or indirect social ties to the Belmont Country Club.

Federal agents said they discovered Elkinson had been in Las Vegas but had checked out of a hotel on Dec. 22.

Authorities said that casino records showed Elkinson had conducted $3.7 million in currency transactions over $10,000 since 1998, such as placing or collecting bets.

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2010/01/07/ponzi_suspect_had_prior_woes/

[UpInArms]

23. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.927 Change 0.434 (+0.56%)

Daily Sound Bites

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-01-07-1302-Daily_Sound_Bites.html



...more...

Dollar Faltering as Risk Trends Hold, Interest Rate Speculation Cools

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2010-01-07-0220-Dollar_Faltering_as_Risk_Trends.html



The Economy and the Credit Market
Speculative trends have been slow to recover from the year-end lethargy that seemed to set in two months ago. Nonetheless, the US dollar has seen its ability to capitalize on the stalled drive in risk appetite diminished by that same stability and the development of a few other fundamental concerns. Today, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) last policy meeting squashed burgeoning speculation that interest rate hikes could be in store for the near future. Throughout 2009, the market was pacified by central bank Chairman Ben Bernanke’s suggestion that the next rate decision would not come until at least the middle of 2010. This was a loose target; but the tangible efforts to withdrawal stimulus from their emergency aid programs offered traders a clear stepping stone towards the inevitable. However, in recent commentary, the time frame for a decisive hawkish move grew increasingly vague. Today’s report revealed the debate for a hike was not progressing well. The minutes reported a deliberation over whether asset purchasing programs should increased and extended should the economic recovery soften. What’s more, some officials argued that the slack in the economy would likely contain inflation pressures. In reaction to the event, interest rate expectations tumbled for a third day, reversing the hawkish trend that had built up throughout December. Now the dollar’s best hope is for risk appetite to collapse.



...more...

[Dr.Phool]

26. Ole Labnose.

I just returned from the dog park, and took a few of these.

[Tansy_Gold]

28. she's gettin' so big!

She looks like a really really sweet dog, Doc. You done good -- and so did she!



TG

[AnneD]

35. AWWWWH....

She takes after you :rofl::hide:

[UpInArms]

31. Was Fidelity National Title Ins party to mortgage fraud?

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/07/business/07title.html?ref=business&pagewanted=all

For years, Fidelity National Financial, the nation’s largest title insurance company, did not tell investors about dozens of lawsuits accusing two units and several employees of playing a role in an elaborate mortgage fraud scheme in San Diego.

The first lawsuits by victims of the fraud were filed in 2006 and the architect of the scheme pleaded guilty in 2007, claiming in sworn depositions that Fidelity National employees helped concoct the paperwork for the sham home sales at the heart of the scheme.

Fidelity National did not mention this litigation to its shareholders until October 2009 — a silence that speaks volumes about how tricky “full disclosure” can be in a world that increasingly demands it but rarely defines it.

In a few weeks, when the last round of fraud claims goes to trial, the plaintiffs will be arguing that Fidelity National’s decision not to disclose the case is further evidence that it was covering up for its employees and that the issue should be put before the jury. The company fiercely disputes that contention, defending its employees and saying the disclosure issue is irrelevant to the fraud dispute.

But whether the company’s disclosure decision is relevant to the civil litigation, it may be relevant to the marketplace — Fidelity National is a public company, with 2008 revenue of $4.33 billion and shares that trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

And while title insurance and escrow accounts do not seem like the stuff of white-knuckle drama, the legal adventures that gave rise to the San Diego cases would keep “Law & Order” rolling for months.

The confessed criminal is Rollo Norton II, known as Rick, a financial planner in Southern California who tried to keep a struggling condominium project in San Diego afloat by putting units in his clients’ names — forging their signatures, faking loan applications, kiting deposit checks for their escrow accounts, and using their credit to borrow the money he needed, according to statements by federal prosecutors.

...more fascinating stuff at link...