STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday January 8

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday January 8, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 7, 2010

Dow... 10,606.86 +33.18 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq... 2,300.05 -1.04 (-0.05%)
S&P 500... 1,141.69 +4.55 (+0.40%)
Gold future... 1,134 -2.90 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.82 +0.00 (+0.10%)
30-Year Bond 4.69 0.00 (-0.02%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. This Geithner/AIG coverup seems to have grown some legs.

Geithner’s New York Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure

Ritholtz has the e-mails.

(DailyKos) Economic Outrage du Jour: Emails Exposed

Plus there's more... Every major news outlet is covering it.

[ozymandius]

2. Geithner’s Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure (Update3)

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, then led by Timothy Geithner, told American International Group Inc. to withhold details from the public about the bailed-out insurer’s payments to banks during the depths of the financial crisis, e-mails between the company and its regulator show...

Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said the e-mail exchanges were “troubling” and that he supports holding congressional hearings to review them.

AIG’s Dec. 24, 2008, filing was challenged privately by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which polices the adequacy of disclosures by publicly traded firms. The agency said in a letter to then-CEO Edward Liddy six days later that AIG should provide a Schedule A, which lists collateral postings for the swaps and names the bank counterparties that purchased them from the company. The Schedule A was disclosed about five months later in a filing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=afBRd2IifYuw&pos=15

[ozymandius]

3. Fed Advice to A.I.G. Scrutinized (NYT)

Fed Advice to A.I.G. Scrutinized

New revelations that the government stopped the American International Group from revealing information about its bailout had securities lawyers and policy makers buzzing on Thursday about whether the information had to be disclosed under federal securities law, and if so, what to do about the lack of compliance.

Joel Seligman, a historian of the Securities and Exchange Commission, said the disclosure rules were supposed to apply to all public companies, with only a few narrow exceptions for things like trade secrets and national security. There was no exception for “too big to fail” companies on federal life support, he said. Companies are supposed to disclose all information that could be material, though that term is not clearly defined....

Others disagreed, saying that bank and insurance regulators normally keep their discussions with struggling financial institutions private, to keep from inciting runs. There has always been tension, one securities lawyer said, between banking regulators, who want to resolve problems behind closed doors, and the federal securities laws, which compel disclosure.

---

Yves Smith shares this opinion on the bold line above:

The annoying bit about this article is it parrots an irrelevant defense, “Oh, companies that are in trouble often don’t discuss their dealing with their regulators because it might cause a run.” Huh? AIG was ALREADY government backstopped. Moreover, in those circumstances, it is the company that wants to keep the information private. Here it was AIG that wanted to make the disclosure and the Fed that wanted it kept under wraps. This was NOT about protecting AIG and all about protecting the Fed.

[ozymandius]

4. Edward Harrison: Geithner’s dubious AIG cover up

Posted at Naked Capitalism

A quick review: Damaging e-mails have revealed that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged AIG to withhold crucial information about the deterioration of its financial condition in the lead up to its demise. This will put further political pressure on Geithner, who has already been exposed for his dubious role in the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

Bloomberg leads into the story saying:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, then led by Timothy Geithner, told American International Group Inc. to withhold details from the public about the bailed-out insurer’s payments to banks during the depths of the financial crisis, e-mails between the company and its regulator show.

AIG said in a draft of a regulatory filing that the insurer paid banks, which included Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA, 100 cents on the dollar for credit-default swaps they bought from the firm. The New York Fed crossed out the reference, according to the e-mails, and AIG excluded the language when the filing was made public on Dec. 24, 2008. The e-mails were obtained by Representative Darrell Issa, ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

These were not e-mails revealed willingly, but rather as a result of oversight and investigation. At issue is whether the 100 cents on the dollar payments by AIG to its credit default swap counterparties were a backdoor bailout. Most market watchers believe that AIG counterparties would have received significantly less on the free market, exposing them to tens of billions in losses instead of taxpayers (see CW story from March 2009 on this issue). So, in a very real sense, many believe taxpayers were defrauded by the government’s handling of the AIG affair. This latest revelation only adds to that belief.

Moreover, in regards to Tim Geithner personally, this revelation is extremely damaging. Not only did he, Paulson and Bernanke mishandle the Lehman bankruptcy which triggered the panic central to the financial crisis, but he has now been personally implicated in withholding – covering up, if you will – vital evidence on the looting of taxpayers to the benefit of financial companies, some of whom are not even domestic institutions. (See my definition of terms.) You have to see this in a negative light.

I would be remiss if I didn’t remind you that he had direct oversight responsibilities for money center banks as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In the past, in testimony before Congress he has denied that he was, in fact, responsible for these institutions, saying “I’m not a regulator.”

Harrison concludes with:

Tim Geithner must go.

Indeed.

[Roland99]

7. He not only should go, he should have never been here. And Dimon is the probably replacement?

:eyes:

[ozymandius]

10. Dimon? Just curious. Where did you see that?

I really cannot think of anyone more hostile, other than Geithner, to the fair minded interests concerning the public till.

[Roland99]

17. Pretty sure it was a posting in a previous SMW thread

I'll have to look for it later.

[Roland99]

18. or maybe not :)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=7201239&mesg_id=7201530

[ozymandius]

20. This part:

Obama’s "favorite banker," JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, recently rumored to be a possible successor to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, is also a major Bean donor, giving her $5900 since 2005 and $2000 in 2009 alone. Dimon is in New York now, but spent a critical period heading US Bank in Chicago, where he appears to have gotten close to Jarrett, Rahm Emanuel, and other Obama insiders.

The whole story just reeks of crony jockeying into the queue to rip off the citizenry.

[Demeter]

21. There Was Some Blather in November, I Think

Dimon talking about his "willingness to serve" and looking for the next notch on his resume.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/prediction-obama-will-pick-dimon-to-be-treasury-secretary

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/23/jamie-dimon-treasury-secr_n_368218.html

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/11/23/jamie-dimon-for-treasury-secretary-the-contradictor-in-chief/

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/polishing_dimon_IKfyRK8PArjjlMYflWAvDK

http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/2008/11/jamie-dimon-for-treasury.html

I hope it was a trial balloon that never got off the ground.

It certainly sent a shiver of revulsion through the financial press...rather like the thought of Blankfein going to "do God's work" in the halls of government...we've had enough retribution, don't you think?

[ozymandius]

23. The revulsion would go parabolic with his nomination.

"God's work"? :puke:

Anyone in Congress who would support his nomination would be regarded as a flagellate wearing a hairshirt. Really - beneath contempt.

[Tansy_Gold]

49. "Would"? or merely

"should"?

Don't underestimate the tolerance of those in power. After all, they approved Geithner once. . . . . and indeed even many DUers did.




Tansy Gold, who didn't

[ozymandius]

76. 'would' and 'should'

if there is any dignity left among the twice-bitten crowd.

[ozymandius]

11. AIG bailout secrecy could mean Geithner testifies

WASHINGTON – Lawmakers are preparing to investigate revelations that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, led at the time by Timothy Geithner, pushed for greater secrecy on controversial bailout decisions...

The Democratic chairman of one committee said he was considering calling Geithner, who took over as treasury secretary in January 2009, to testify on the Hill.

E-mails between lawyers for the New York Fed and AIG show AIG wanted to disclose some details about billions in payments it made to cancel financial deals with banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank.

But lawyers for the New York Fed, which engineered AIG's bailout with the Bush administration's Treasury Department, told AIG to remove the information from a draft....

If Geithner is called to explain his actions to Congress, it will be another tough grilling for him. Lawmakers of both parties have accused Geithner of rushing to aid Wall Street while failing to act as quickly on unemployment and the housing crisis.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100108/ap_on_bi_ge/us_geithner_fed_aig

---

They'd damn better call Geithner to testify. Otherwise, Congress will appear to be in collusion with the coverup.

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. And perhaps a choppy chopper confirmation??

:donut:
Good morning

[ozymandius]

19. Good morning. And yes, Bernanke has a new headache.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I see that Senator Dorgan has placed an effective hold on Bernanke's nomination.

From FireDogLake:

The more interesting policy point he made was about Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and his upcoming confirmation vote:

DORGAN: Well, this is going to be one of the big issues right at the start of this session, is financial reform. And Wall Street’s right back in the same old swamp, doing the same things. And with respect to the Federal Reserve Board, you know for the first time in history they said to the big investment banks, you can come and get direct lending from the Federal Reserve Board. We’re trying to find out from the Fed, who’d you give the money to, how much money did you give? My point is, what did you do with our money? And the Federal Reserve Board says “none of your business.” Well, I tell you what, it is our business, and I’m not going to let the Bernanke nomination to head the Fed for another term go through until he tells, what did he do with our money, the American people’s money? So we’ve got a lot of things to work on here, and as I’ve said before, if you’re too big to fail, you’re too big, in my judgment. Because that’s no-fault capitalism, and we shouldn’t continue with it.

This is not materially different from what the several other Senators who have put a hold on Bernanke’s confirmation have been saying – they would allow a vote only after they get some more transparency, through an audit of the Fed or something else, of the trillions of dollars in lending that it has been doing since the beginning of the financial crisis.

http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/01/07/dorgan-basically-adding-to-the-hold-on-ben-bernanke/

What fun!

[Po_d Mainiac]

24. If the vote is still scheduled for the 20Jan.....Yes what fun indeed!!

MSM has been slow in connecting the dots between the NYFR, Professor POTY and the various House/Senate banking committees.

Elizabeth Warren must be on cloud 9 about now!!

[DemReadingDU]

26. Elizabeth Warren was on Rachel Maddow Jan 6 video

Jan. 6: Elizabeth Warren, chair of the TARP Congressional oversight panel, explains to Rachel Maddow the vital importance of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency being worked on in Congress and the irrationality of conservatives and partisans opposing its creation.

http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-US&brand=msnbc&vid=0257a51d-2105-4a50-8953-dc4b60eaf64e

[DemReadingDU]

29. IF Bernanke not confirmed, and Geithner terminated

big IF, but wouldn't there be similar type of people for replacements that would carry on the banksters mission of deception and fraud? I'd be glad that both would be gone, but we'd just get more of the same.

[ozymandius]

32. That would be investigated during the confirmation process.

I suspect that anyone with even a toe in the water of this debacle would appear radioactive. Turnover of this magnitude would evoke great scrutiny from those who are pounding on the door for their dismissal.

If we could get either Elizabeth Warren as Geithner's permanent replacement or Paul Volker as his temporary replacement then we could count ourselves fortunate.

[mbperrin]

35. Yes, Warren is great!

I'm hoping we might really get lucky, just this once...

[DemReadingDU]

37. That would be fortunate for us

But I don't think it would happen with the way the lobbyists, bankers, and big corporations are running the country.

[Loge23]

45. True. Obama doesn't get to choose

He's told whom to choose.
Not that it would matter anyway - he'd probably choose a repub in an attempt to "reach across the aisle".

[Po_d Mainiac]

46. They say that even

an atheist prays when facing a firing squad.

If this blows up (the way it should) Capital Hill will overrun by those seeking penance. Public outrage over the abuses by Wall St. does seem to be real and gaining momentum, maybe real enough to get some peoples attention (Mr President, got your ears on?)
YMMV

[ozymandius]

14. The AIG fiasco keeps getting worse

....The New York Fed says the final decision on disclosures always rested with AIG (AIG, Fortune 500), which since September 2008 has been propped up by multiple infusions of taxpayer funds. But the claim rings hollow, given all the bailout-information jockeying of the past year.

Around the time the New York Fed was striking details from an AIG securities filing, former Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) chief Ken Lewis was deciding not to let investors in on what a disaster the bank's purchase of brokerage firm Merrill Lynch was shaping up to be.

Lewis claimed Paulson and Bernanke pressured him not to disclose growing losses at Merrill to shareholders -- a claim the policymakers rejected and that many observers pooh-poohed.

Just a few months later, the Washington Post revealed that regulators at the Federal Housing Finance Authority had pressured executives at troubled mortgage financing company Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) not to disclose the cost of carrying out its expanded federal housing-market support duties.

In that case, Freddie Mac made the disclosure, though only after negotiating with regulators over its wording.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/07/news/geithner.disclosure.fortune/index.htm

---

As Yves Smith has stated: The supreme idea is to protect the Fed. No one either in Washington nor in New York did their job with regards to oversight. So this CYA maneuver will not go very far.

This shows absolute contempt for investors and taxpayers. Clearly, the public treasury is viewed as a slush fund that covers banking and investment house excesses when things do not go their way. The end result to this fiasco should be, at least, firings. Criminal prosecution of fraud, theft and misprision of a felony would be a welcome result too.

[Demeter]

22. I'd Speculate That a LOT of People Want Geithner Out

The question is: who do they want in, and why? And please let it not be Dimon.

[DemReadingDU]

30. I had lunch in October with an old co-worker who now works for Chase

and is of the opinion that Dimon is the best CEO, that he really gets things done, people have a lot of respect for him, and it's great to have Chase stock. Nothing negative about the financial industry was spoken.

I thought to myself, again, people are clueless. Very few have any idea what is really going on. When the markets resume the downward trend, those clueless people are going to be shocked.

[Ghost Dog]

65. Spitzer on Geithner/AIG coverup (kpete thread):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7422072

[ozymandius]

72. from his statement

"US taxpayers bought 80% of AIG when they bailed the company out with $180 billion last year. As owners of the company, taxpayers are also owners of AIG. As owners of the company we can demand the release of these documents."

[ozymandius]

5. Market Observation

Beyond the Headline Data
BY MICHAEL PANZNER

Economists cheered today’s report from the U.S. Department of Labor, which showed that weekly initial and continuing jobless claims continue to work their way lower from the peaks hit in March and June of 2009, respectively. But for some reason, the “experts” keep ignoring the ongoing surge in emergency employment claims, which climbed above 5 million to a new record. In fact, despite all the attention being paid to the headline data, the real story is that the ranks of the long-term unemployed keep going up.

-chart-

In its most recent update on the services sector, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its index of non-manufacturing businesses, which comprise almost 90 percent of the economy, bounced back above the 50 level indicating expansion (if only just barely). But again, the headline number doesn’t tell the whole story. As far as hiring goes, things aren’t really improving (they are simply less negative than they were), a trend that’s been in effect since the spring of 2008.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors reported a much worse-than-expected drop in its pending home sales index, which tracks the number of home resales under contract. But was it really a surprise? As we saw with the Cash-for-Clunkers program, another government-sponsored effort to kick-start a troubled sector of the economy (i.e., cars), once the free money ran out, sales quickly faded. And even though Washington has extended (in modified form) and expanded the home buyer tax credit program, there’s little chance that it will revive a sector where the gap between supply and demand remains formidable.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

6. Today's Reports

08:30 Average Workweek Dec
Briefing.com 33.2
Consensus 33.2
Prior 33.2

08:30 Hourly Earnings Dec
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.1%

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Dec
Briefing.com -25K
Consensus -35K
Prior -11K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Dec
Briefing.com 10.2%
Consensus 10.0%
Prior 10.0%

10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov
Briefing.com -0.2%
Consensus -0.3%
Prior 0.3%

15:00 Consumer Credit Nov
Briefing.com -$7.0B
Consensus -$5.0B
Prior -$3.5B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

9. Bet Wall St. goes up no matter which way the jobs report goes

But, on an anecdotal level, a position with the county gov't property appraiser office that I had applied for back over summer (but the position was yanked due to a hiring freeze county-wide in the gov't) is now back open so perhaps the budget crisis is resolving down here?

[UpInArms]

34. U.S. Dec. nonfarm payrolls drop by 85,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-dec-nonfarm-payrolls-drop-by-85000-2010-01-08

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. job losses resumed in December after revisions showed payrolls rose in November for the first time in nearly two years, the Labor Department estimated Friday. Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 85,000 in December following a revised 4,000 gain in November. During 2009, payrolls fell by 4.2 million. Since the recession began two years ago, payrolls have fallen by 7.3 million. The official unemployment rate remained at 10% in December. An alternative gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 17.3% from 17.2%. Details of the report were weak, with few signs of further improvement in labor conditions.

[UpInArms]

36. 8:30 report line items-

8:30a U.S. Dec. total hours worked flat

8:30a U.S. Nov. payrolls revised to 4,000 gain

U.S. Dec. service-producing payrolls fall 4,000 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. goods-producing payrolls fall 81,000 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Oct., Nov. payrolls revised down by net 1,000 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. average workweek steady at 33.2 hours 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. average hourly earnings up 0.2% 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. unemployment rate steady at 10% 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. nonfarm payrolls fall 85,000 8:30 a.m. Today

[Po_d Mainiac]

43. What did u expect, job growth?

It's winter. The ground is as hard as an investment bankers soul. The "green shoots" are there! Really, u gotta trust me on this one.
.
.
:sarcasm:
.
.
Didn't u read the memo? We don't need no stinkin jobs for a recovery. (Either Jamie or God said so!) :nuke:

[TalkingDog]

53. You've been published.

As a trouvaille (found poem): http://wp.me/pAw0L-8U

[UpInArms]

55. ...

:applause:

[Po_d Mainiac]

60. I thought trouvaille were fungi??

Please let me know when the movie release is scheduled :hi: :hi:

[TalkingDog]

67. that would be a trouvaille truffle

ah, the french would be so pissed about now.....

[UpInArms]

74. U.S. Nov. consumer credit down record $17.49 bln

3:00p U.S. Nov. consumer credit down at 8.5% rate

3:00p U.S. Nov. consumer credit down record $17.49 bln

[ozymandius]

8. Oil hovers below $83 ahead of US key jobs report

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $83 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors look to a key U.S. jobs report later in the day for clues about the strength of the economic recovery...

The Labor Department is scheduled to announce later on Friday the December unemployment rate and job creation figures — numbers traders will study closely for signs the economy is on surer footing heading into 2010....

In other Nymex trading in February contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.18 a gallon and gasoline held at $2.13 a gallon. Natural gas futures were up 2.7 cents at $5.83.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

12. Europe’s Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Hits 11-Year High (Update2)

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Europe’s unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to the highest in more than 11 years in November as companies cut costs in the wake of the worst recession in more than six decades.

Unemployment in the euro area rose to 10 percent from a revised 9.9 percent in October, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since August 1998. Economists forecast a November rate of 9.9 percent after the 9.8 percent initially reported for October, a Bloomberg survey showed. The euro-area economy expanded 0.4 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to a separate report....

The euro-area economy returned to growth in the third quarter after governments spent billions of euros on stimulus programs to bolster spending. Still, corporate investment fell 0.8 percent in the quarter and consumer spending dropped 0.1 percent, today’s data showed. The European Central Bank last month kept borrowing costs at a record low and said it will exit some unconventional measures as the recovery progresses.

In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unemployment unexpectedly declined in December, keeping the jobless rate at 8.1 percent, the Federal Labor Agency said on Dec. 5. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Cabinet extended the so-called short- term work program for a year from this month, allowing companies to continue tapping federal aid to help pay wages. As many as 140,000 people were on short-term work last month, the Federal Labor Agency said on Jan. 5.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-08/europe-s-jobless-rate-unexpectedly-hits-11-year-high-update2-.html

[ozymandius]

13. (Global) Stocks rise, dollar dips ahead of U.S. jobs

LONDON (Reuters) – Global stocks advanced on Friday, anticipating an improvement in all-important U.S. monthly jobs data, while the dollar fell from a four-month high against the yen after Japan's new finance minister backed off his call for a weaker currency. Crude oil prices dipped, extending losses the previous day on worries about tighter Chinese monetary policy. Safe-haven government bonds were mostly steady. The latest Reuters poll suggested the U.S. economy stopped shedding jobs in December, as investors were more optimistic about the world's largest economy....

In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 (.FTEU3) rose 0.6 percent and Japan's Nikkei average (.N225) gained 1.1 percent, hitting its highest close in 15 months.

However, a strong jobs report would raise speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve could start tightening and even increase interest rates sooner than expected.

James Bullard, president of St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, said uncertainty about inflation was mounting in the United States, although price pressure remain subdued.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100108/bs_nm/us_markets_global

---

If the jobs report is good - then I expect this will call for an increase in Fed lending rates. In which case this will reshuffle the deck in terms of the carry trade across the globe with tumultuous effects across global markets.

[ozymandius]

15. The smoking gun in the AIG – Geithner cover up (in Geithner's own handwriting)

In then New York Fed president Tim Geithner’s own handwriting:

Note that there should be no discussion or suggestion that AIG and the NY Fed are asking to structure anything else at this point.

Let's see Geithner explain this under oath.

This revelation makes Treasury's CYA statements, reported at Bloomberg, irrelevant and absurd at the same time:

“Secretary Geithner played no role in these decisions,” Meg Reilly, a Treasury spokeswoman, said in an e-mail. “He was recused from working on issues involving specific companies, including AIG,” after his nomination for Treasury secretary on Nov. 24, 2008. Geithner “began to insulate himself weeks earlier in anticipation of his nomination,” she said in a separate statement.

Culture of Corruption claims will easily stick here.

[Po_d Mainiac]

40. Why hasn't turbo been invited to

any of the House Oversight Committee hearings? What has SIGTARP compiled but not been asked to submit? Where is Elvis's favorite Krispy Kreme?

I'll bet we only get the answer to one of the above questions

[Demeter]

25. Good morning, World! And Ozy!

Hope you are all getting ready for what promises to be a banking blowout tonight.

With the FDIC taking two weeks' vacation, the backlog must be towering. WEE will have it all (it's too snowy to go out and do anything) after 5pm in the usual place.

Maybe I can keep it together enough to get down to 100 emails in backlog or less...things just keep on happening, at home and abroad.

Sure looks like winter out there now.

What I'd REALLY like to be doing tonight is baking cookies and sitting by a log fire...but the Kid's on a diet and we have no fireplace. It's in the renovation specs, though!

[ozymandius]

27. Good morning, Demeter.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I would expect a blowout with two weeks off. School is closed today due to the ice that fell last night. I'll look forward to monitoring the Geithner swan song watch today.

[ozymandius]

28. Goldman Sachs Directors Bled The Bank Dry, Shareholder Says

MANHATTAN (CN) - Goldman Sachs is using taxpayer money and wasting corporate assets to pay billions more dollars in pay and bonuses than it does to shareholders, according to a derivative complaint in New York County Court. The company earned $2.32 billion and paid $4.82 in bonuses in 2008; it paid more than 259 percent of its net income as compensation in the first quarter of 2009 and more than 193 percent of its net income in the second quarter, according to the complaint...

Over the past few years, Goldman contributed to "a worldwide economic crisis," took $13 billion from the AIG bailout and a $10 billion loan from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to the complaint.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said that without government intervention, the big banks would not have survived, according to the complaint. Delaware-based Goldman Sachs would have lost billions of dollars without the bailout money, the shareholder claims....

Company standards require performance-based compensation, but Goldman Sachs has made only cosmetic adjustments, such as paying the 30-member management committee with restricted shares instead of cash, according to the complaint. An additional 14,000 executives' and employees' pay schedule remains unchanged.

Many former Goldman Sachs executives worked at the Federal Reserve Bank, which indirectly bailed out the bank through the AIG bailout in addition to TARP money, according to the complaint.

http://www.courthousenews.com/2010/01/07/23425.htm

[Demeter]

41. A Worthy Lawsuit--Open and Shut like a Briefcase full of Unmarked Cash

[Dr.Phool]

47. We've found a new use for Gitmo.

I doubt they'll have the balls to do it though.

[Po_d Mainiac]

31. More joy on the horizon....maybe

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/08/financial-crisis-inquiry-commission-bankers_n_415889.html

On Wednesday and Thursday, the commission will hold its first public hearings featuring a gallery of the nation's top bank executives – Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, John Mack of Morgan Stanley and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America.

"The irony here is it's as if there was an earthquake and the only buildings standing today are the buildings that were at the epicenter of the earthquake," the commission's chairman, Phil Angelides, said in an interview Thursday. "You have millions of people unemployed, millions have lost their homes, and Wall Street is having a record year with record profits and record bonuses. People want to understand why."

snip

"We start with the belief that the financial crisis is not a past-tense phenomenon," he said.

.................
We have a pretty good idea of the "why", what we want is accountability, prosecutions, and :FRSP:

[ozymandius]

33. May the spirit of Ferdinand Pecora dwell in his heart.

We really need an investigation as thorough as the Pecora Commission to name names of people and institutions that did this to us.

[UpInArms]

38. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.790 Change -0.123 (-0.16%)

US Dollar Edges Closer to a Breakout with NFPs on the Horizon

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2010-01-08-0122-US_Dollar_Edges_Closer_to.html

The US dollar hasn’t moved very far in the past three weeks. In fact, since the greenback’s aggressive December rally stalled, the benchmark EURUSD has maintained a range (albeit one with a mild bearish bias) of a little more than 100 pips. Through the end of today’s US session, the dollar would complete another bullish swing within its limited range. However, this technical cue may be just one step away from a critical breakout for the meandering currency. There are a few things that can spark life back into the dollar and risk appetite in general; and one of those catalysts is scheduled for release tomorrow at 13:30 GMT: the US non-farm payrolls (NFPs). Further leveraging the clout of this already notable market mover, we can see blatant evidence of pent up pressure across the financial markets. And, no other benchmark better defines the need for momentum and trend better the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The model traditional-investor asset class, the equity index is a straightforward barometer for risk appetite or aversion. That being said, the benchmark has maintained a 300-point spread for going on two months now. When the stock market finally breaks, expect the US dollar to the same.

In the lead up to tomorrow’s big event, the economic docket was unusually light. The top release was the recent jobless claims figures. First time employment insurance figures for the week ending January 2nd rose by a modest 1,000 listings to 432,000 and subsequently came out better than the forecast for a rise to 440,000. The continuing claims numbers were more rousing with a near year-low 4.802 million filings. The only other scheduled release was the December ICSC Chain Store Sales report. While this is a proprietary indicator, it does offer a good leading measure of consumer spending; and in this capacity, the 17-month high 2.8 percent reading is encouraging in the global race to recovery. However, these few indicators aside, the real fundamental activity for the day would come from data and news that was unscheduled. For interest rate hawks, commentary from Fed member Hoenig and a warning from the Federal Reserve itself would make up for yesterday’s disappointment minutes. Kansas City Fed President Hoenig remarked that policy should be balanced “sooner rather than latter” and suggested holding the benchmark near zero for too long would hamper the recovery in the financial market. However, such commentary from a hawk is not unusual. Far more remarkable was an advisory released by the central bank cautioning banks to prepare for rising interest rates. This warning is just another step towards the inevitable rate hike.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the tension is palpable. The markets and underlying risk appetite are restrained to strict congestion; and a key economic release is scheduled for release. The US NFP release is considered a leading indicator for the world’s largest economy. It takes little stretch of the imagination to picture this reading catalyzing a both currency and sentiment and in turn establishing the first real trend of the year. Heading into the release, the official consensus is calling for no change in net payrolls for the month of December. This may seem a non-event at first glance; but we need to put such an outcome into perspective. If expectations are matched or exceeded, it would mark the first time in 25 months that employment did not contract. That in itself is a milestone. However, there could be a rumbling of skepticism in the background even if the response to the headline reading is so straightforward. Putting this reading into context, the US economy shed more than 7 million jobs in the past two year. To reduce the unemployment rate and to establish a true period of expansion, the pace of job growth will have to not only absorb those Americans that were laid off; but it will also have to account for new people entering the market. Economists’ estimates for what the average payroll number would have to be each to return the market to the level that was considered ‘full employment’ just a few years ago is certainly well beyond reality. Such long-term concerns probably won’t weigh too heavily tomorrow; but the will start to seep in down the road.

...more...

Canada Unexpectedly Loses Jobs On Drop In Manufacturing Hires

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/top_fx_headlines/2010-01-08-1310-Canada_Unexpectedly_Loses_Jobs_On.html

Fundamental Headlines

• Big Deficits Cloud Britain's Future – Wall Street Journal
• Retailers Boost Forecasts – Wall Street Journal
• Japan goes into damage control on yen - Financial Times
• Bank of England May Make $96 Million on Corporate Bonds, Evolution Says – Bloomberg
• Stocks Rise Around World on Speculation U.S. Job Losses Ended; Metals Fall - Bloomberg


GBP/USD – U.K. factory gate prices jumped by 0.5% in December more than doubling forecasts for 0.2% as an improving economy is allowing producers to pass on costs to consumers. Prices were up 3.5% from a year ago which also surpassed estimates of 3.1%. Additionally, input costs rose by 6.9% from a year ago signaling that inflation may continue to rise. The BoE expects that price growth will accelerate by more than their 2% target at the beginning of 2010, but that existing slack and the end of government stimulus will drag prices lower. Therefore, they have left the door open for additional quantitative easing which they will reevaluate at their February policy meeting.

USD/CAD – The Canadian economy unexpectedly lost 2,600 jobs in December, versus forecast for a gain of 20,000. The manufacturing sector cut 9,700 employees offsetting a 9,200 gain from service providers. Despite the drop in hiring, the unemployment rate held at 8.5% as the labor force shrunk by 8,900. The little job growth that was attained was from a 15,200 surge in the self-employed which could be a sign that small businesses are starting to gain strength as credit markets loosen. The dour will only encourage the Bank of Canada to maintain their pledge to keep rates on hold until mid-2010.

...more...

[ozymandius]

39. In other words: little improvement.

Being a pessimist, under the current set of stimulus measures, I see little hope of an economic renewal. Certainly not seeing the aggressive renewal stimulus we appeared to have elected one year ago.

[Tansy_Gold]

56. krugman said the pessimists were right

posted in gd-p.

:yourock: ozy


tansy gold, trying to see the screen in the sunshiny reflection while sittin' outside at the coffee shop

[Demeter]

57. The Pessimists Were Optimistic, Even

The Optimists were delusional.

[Dr.Phool]

59. Were?

Still are.

[Tansy_Gold]

63. And so many of them STILL on DU......... but please read

On another note --

A friend lost his dog the other day. He has a disability and the dog, rescued three years ago after being lost/abandoned by a previous owner, has been an excellent companion for him. When she got away Tuesday afternoon, everyone in our group was heartsick, and all who could joined in the search. Flyers were printed and distributed, and there were a couple sitings. The locale is right along a major and very busy highway, and the desert is alive with coyotes, bobcats, even an occasional mountain lion.

She was a tough little dog, having survived her abandonment in the middle of summer for several days before finally being captured, so her chances for survival were deemed reasonable, but this time she was encumbered by a leash which, if tangled in vegetation, would make her easy prey.

Yesterday morning she was sited twice, but the witnesses didn't have reliable information. Still, searchers went out and combed the area without any luck. There were more sitings in the afternoon, and dedicated searchers continued into the dark with night-vision goggles and everything. They came close last night, spotting her but unable to approach close enough before she fled, apparently spooked by too many strangers.

Early this morning, one of the women she's more familiar with went out alone into the area where she'd been seen late last night and about 9:30 showed up with the fugitive in tow. Fur a totally matted mess, thirsty and probably dehydrated, hungry, she was otherwise none the worse for wear after almost three days on the loose.

Needless to say, her owner was ecstatic.

Some people didn't give up.


Tansy Gold, who didn't either but also didn't lose sight of reality

[DemReadingDU]

69. Happy, Happy, Happy

And I bet the dog was ecstatic to be bank home with its owner.

:bounce:

[Tansy_Gold]

70. Tansy Gold apologizes for using "siting" and "sited" when she meant "sighting" and

"sighted."

Blame it on relief that the dog was SEEN and FOUND and BROUGHT HOME.



Tansy Gold, who is heading to the rock show (which is not the same as a rock concert) tomorrow

[Roland99]

71. I *heart* happy endings

:)

[ozymandius]

73. I love news like this.

Your friend has a truly lucky companion.

[Festivito]

42. Debt: 01/06/2010 12,302,080,159,963.01 (DOWN 1,220,765,739.17) (Wed)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,804,384,050,405.01 + 4,497,696,109,558.00
UP 123,816,367.19 + DOWN 1,344,582,106.36

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,400,798 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,889.91.
A family of three owes $119,669.73. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 9,756,183,564.27.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,154,534,613.80.
The average for the last 33 days would be 6,504,122,376.18.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 66 reports in 98 days of FY2010 averaging 5.94B$ per report, 4.00B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,110 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 19.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/06/2010 12,302,080,159,963.01 BHO (UP 1,675,203,111,049.93 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,392,251,156,451.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,460,935,429,640.05 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********
01/06/2010 +000,123,816,367.19 ------------********

94,165,288,126.47 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4214022&mesg_id=4214096

[Festivito]

68. Debt: 01/07/2010 12,280,845,281,517.59 (DOWN 21,234,878,445.42) (Thu)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,781,593,099,593.51 + 4,499,252,181,924.08
DOWN 22,790,950,811.50 + UP 1,556,072,366.08

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,409,438 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,819.94.
A family of three owes $119,459.82. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 8,848,780,324.97.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,489,105,571.64.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,279,779,585.46.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 67 reports in 99 days of FY2010 averaging 5.54B$ per report, 3.75B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,109 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 19.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/07/2010 12,280,845,281,517.59 BHO (UP 1,653,968,232,604.51 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,371,016,278,005.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,367,888,297,698.15 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********
01/06/2010 +000,123,816,367.19 ------------********
01/07/2010 -022,790,950,811.50 -

12,574,661,094.70 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4216012&mesg_id=4216219

[UpInArms]

44. Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/business/global/08chanos.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

SHANGHAI — James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.

Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China’s hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse,” he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.

“Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses,” he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. “And there’s no bigger credit excess than in China.” He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.

As America’s pre-eminent short-seller — he bets big money that companies’ strategies will fail — Mr. Chanos’s narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.

Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.

Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.

...more...

[Roland99]

48. Japan is already strained. If China stops buying US debt, then what?

The second-half of a "double-dip" recession would not be a fun experience.

[ret5hd]

52. My guess is that it would more likely be the second 2/3's of a "double-dip" recession...

meaning that we have yet to get to the half-way point.

[Roland99]

54. Guess I was looking at it like this >>>>

---\
     \
      \
       ---
           \
            \

[Ghost Dog]

64. China central bank surprises with yield hike

Thu Jan 7, 2010 7:45am EST SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's central bank surprised markets on Thursday by raising the interest rate on its three-month bills for the first time since August, intensifying its grip on liquidity a day after it promised to keep credit growth in check.

While analysts said the move was just a withdrawal of surplus cash in the system, markets feared the worst, taking it as a sign the central bank could be getting ready to use more forceful measures to cool growth and fight inflation, such as raising benchmark lending rates.

The move was accompanied by the biggest weekly net drain from money markets in 11 weeks.

The prospect of a tougher policy stance from Beijing sent Chinese shares tumbling and hit a range of commodities, as investors feared that putting the brakes on growth could weaken the appetite of the world's third-largest economy for steel, copper and other resources needed to fuel it.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6060Z320100107

[DemReadingDU]

50. The Onion (satirical video):

Should the Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole?

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/in_the_know_should_the_government


:rofl:

[Dr.Phool]

51. UPS to cut 1,800 jobs.

The bastards. Profits are up, so they throw more people out.


UPS to cut 1,800 jobs in U.S. segment realignment


Updated at 10:16 a.m.

ATLANTA -- UPS said Friday it will cut 1,800 management and administrative positions to streamline its U.S. small package segment.

The world's largest package delivery company also raised its profit forecast for the fourth-quarter that ended in December, citing improving operations and cost cuts.

About 1,100 employees will be offered a voluntary separation package as part of the work force reduction, UPS said.

UPS has 408,000 employees worldwide. About 340,000 of those workers are in the U.S. The small-package segment, where most of the cuts will come, handles shipments of up to 150 pounds by ground and air.

UPS will reduce its U.S. regions from five to three and its U.S. Districts from 46 to 20 in April. There are no plans to close any operating facilities. UPS said the consolidation of offices will not affect the sales and operations team, including drivers. UPS expects to incur a one-time charge in 2010 because of the restructuring.

UPS Inc., based in Atlanta, raised its fourth-quarter earnings prediction, saying it now expects to earn 73 to 75 cents per share. UPS had previously predicted earnings of 58 to 65 cents per share. UPS will report fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 2.

"The stronger earnings stem from better-than-expected results in both domestic and international operations and savings through cost management," Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn said in a statement. "However, we still anticipate a gradual economic recovery with improvement more evident as 2010 progresses."

The company's chief rival, FedEx, reported fiscal second-quarter earnings last month down 30 percent from a year earlier. FedEx, based in Memphis, Tennessee, said the economy has "reached a turning point," but a full recovery could still be a long way off.

U.S. operations of both UPS and FedEx have been hurt as consumers and businesses shipped less and slowed remaining shipments to save money in the weak economy.

UPS shares rose $2.92, or 5.1 percent, to $60.33 in morning trading. FedEx shares added 67 cents at $83.65.
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[CatholicEdHead]

58. I saw that first as an CNBC iPhone App alert

I first thought it was good news, as shipping was supposedly up, which is similar to the Baltic Shipping Index. Then I get to LBN and this is the top story on the page. Of course CNBC's alert never covered the job losses, only a slight rise in shipping and the stock is up! :sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

61. More commonly known as United Parcel Smashers

Three deliveries in the past year were destroyed by UPS. When I arrived at the customer pickup office to fetch a parcel over the holiday break - ahead of me were two dissatisfied customers. The issue was UPS staff's inability to find the packages that were listed at that location.

I swear. UPS's success has bought it Peter Principle status. When given a choice - I will not use them.

[Dr.Phool]

66. A few months back, they destroyed motherboards 3 times.

I finally drove down to Clearwater and exchanged the last one.

[DemReadingDU]

62. Possible changes to 401(K) and IRA

1/8/10 Retiree Annuities May Be Promoted by Obama Aides

The Obama administration is weighing how the government can encourage workers to turn their savings into guaranteed income streams following a collapse in retiree accounts when the stock market plunged.

The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams, according to Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Iwry, who are spearheading the effort.

Annuities generally guarantee income until the retiree’s death, and often that of a surviving spouse as well. They are designed to protect against the risk that retirees outlive their savings, a danger made clear by market losses suffered by older Americans over the last year, David Certner, legislative counsel for AARP, said in an interview.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aHFCE999fWR0


edit to add: Karl Denninger's Opinion

1/8/10 401k/IRA Screw Job Coming?

Let me tell you what this is - it is an attempt to prevent the collapse of the Treasury market!

Let me be clear:

I have no quarrel with the government mandating that you have a choice in your IRA or 401k account to buy short-duration Treasuries - much like the "G" fund that government and civil-service workers have.

But - "choices" have a funny way of turning into mandates, and this looks to me like a raw admission that Treasury knows it will not be able to sell its debt in the open market - so they will effectively tax you by forcing your "retirement" money to buy them!

This may be the only way for Treasury to hold down interest rates to something reasonable in the intermediate term, but doing so will instantaneously remove a major source of funding for the stock market - that is, the monthly and quarterly inflows from retirement accounts.

You can bet this won't be good for you, the ordinary American.

a bit more...
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1830-401kIRA-Screw-Job-Coming.html

[hamerfan]

75. Just wow...

Not even an attempt at secrecy any more. Just blatant "do what is best for the bankers".

[ozymandius]

77. The danger is clearly there to rip off the participants.

This too is a plan that would function best in a closed system - free from outside interference. That means China, et al. Outside participation in the system would spoil the control. But maybe that is the plan after all.

But I see the upside as it presents a way to replace what has been lost over the past thirty years. Pensions have gone the way of the DoDo. I lament their passing.

I need to read more about this before I have a firm opinion on the thing.