Toss up in Massachusetts

[HomerRamone]

Source: Public Policy Polling

Buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state, Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47.

Here are the major factors leading to this surprising state of affairs:

-As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

<...>

All that said Coakley can certainly still win this race, perhaps even by a comfortable margin. Here's what she needs to do:

-Change the electorate. There are a lot more potential Coakley voters than Brown ones out there in Massachusetts, but she needs to get them more energized. For instance young voters were a crucial part of the Obama coalition but they're only accounting for 11% of likely voters right now and among those planning to turn out she has just a three point advantage.

<...>

Here's the reality: the Republicans and GOP leaning independents are going to come out and vote for Scott Brown. There's no doubt about that. But there's also a much larger pool of potential Democratic voters in the state. If Coakley can get them out, she wins. But this race is well past the stage where Democrats can take it for granted that will happen. It will be fascinating to see what happens the final ten days and we'll do a second poll on the race next weekend.

Full results here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_45398436.pdf



Read more: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/toss-up-in-massachusetts.html

---

I read that PPP is a Dem organization. Is that true?

[OHdem10]

1. The Pundits are correct: Intensity matters. The GOP voters are

more intense.

[napi21]

2. The Dems need to post the pic of Brown, nude in the denterfold from the 80's!

It's here on DU. That will turn off a lot of those Pubbies!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=7431101&mesg_id=7431101

[virgogal]

4. Not the Republicans I know. This IS Massachusetts after all---not the Bible Belt.

[pattmarty]

11. Jesus, these people really do not have shame, do they?

[geckosfeet]

3. I went for a drive today. Saw three of four bRown signs. No Coakley signs.

She needs to make more noise. Her campaign has been lame. No effort into establishing a presence or countering bRowns campaign.

I am vtoing for Coakley.

[Hawaii Hiker]

5. If President Obama has to stop in MA. to campaign for her in the next week

then we'll know it's too close for comfort....

This shouldn't be happening in Massachusetts, the state is as blue as it gets...:banghead:

[Tim01]

9. Would that help? nt

[NewJeffCT]

6. That would really hurt if we lose Kennedy's seat

WTF

[mystieus]

7. GOP likes to make noise but come election day there is no way in hell Mass going Republican

[MannyGoldstein]

20. Right On!

[jmodden]

26. "there is no way in hell Mass going Republican"

I agree

[scytherius]

33. They elected Romney n/t

nt

[robo50]

43. And they learned their lesson. Romney was

a disaster.

[bluestateguy]

8. The Globe is coming out with a poll tongiht +15 Coakley

[pattmarty]

10. If it is EVEN CLOSE in Mass the Dems better not just be worried.......

........but scared shitless. I was thinking (as of now) that we might lose 3 Senate seats and maybe 15 House seats, but with this happening in Mass WHEN THE REPUBLICANS HAVE NOTHING TO OFFER scares the shit out of me.

[girl gone mad]

34. The truly frightening thing is that..

compared to what our party has been offering lately, "nothing" is looking pretty good.

:scared:

[pattmarty]

42. Evidently that's what the "new" teabagger party thinks.

:sarcasm:

[Union Yes]

12. Call for the REPEAL of NAFTA and "Free Trade". Campaign on it and watch it energize the voters. nt

[Joe Bacon]

13. Barry Scott is tearing Coakley to pieces

Barry Scott, the Boston DJ is tearing her to pieces over a police brutality incident he was involved in. He is all over Facebook urging people to vote for Brown. He's not the only one, seems the Boston media is pummeling her everyday too! Coakley is in deep trouble!

[DumpDavisHogg]

14. If Brown wins, we should launch a recall drive immediately

If we stand for Brown winning, we're wusses.

The Republicans need to shut up, step aside, and leave governing to the adults.

[BP2]

21. I agree about the Pukes, but have you seen

the crap going on in Congress lately on HCR? Hardly adult-like behavior.

[Lurks Often]

35. Recall is not an option

There is NO recall option for people elected to the United States Senate or the United States House of Representatives.

[katkat]

37. wish we could recall Obama n/t

[DumpDavisHogg]

45. It's always an option for the other side

The sore losers recalled Gray Davis, remember? That's how California got stuck with Mr. 18% Approval Rating instead.

[Lurks Often]

48. Your facts are incorrect

There is NO recall for people elected to the US Senate or the US House of Representatives.

However, some states have laws that allow for the recall of state officials, in CA's case, there is a law allowing for the recall of the governor.

[Abq_Sarah]

56. How "adult" is it to launch a recall

The moment the guy we don't like is elected?

[Tx4obama]

15. January 5th - Rasmussen: Coakley 50, Brown 41 --- Coakley +9 n/t

[girl gone mad]

16. It would help if she wasn't in the pocket of the special interests.

It's kind of hard to motivate people to turn up to vote for the candidate that Pfizer and Blue Cross love the most.

edit for typos. It's like 10 degrees outside, my poor heater is working overtime and my hands are so cold..

[rhett o rick]

17. IMHO the progressives have lost their zeal. Rahm told them to STFU and I guess they did. This is a

hint of things to come later this year.

[DumpDavisHogg]

18. I didn't (n/t)

[MannyGoldstein]

19. +1

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7431204

[wisteria]

29. I don't share the view that Dem's are disenchanted enought with Obama to not vote Democrat

and stay home. For gosh sakes he has only been in office a year.

[katkat]

38. it doesn't take a year to know an egg is rotten n/t

[RBInMaine]

52. Piss and moan piss and moan piss and moan...and your alternative who can WIN is???????????

[Zhade]

49. But he's broken enough promises -- and been caught in at least one blatant lie -- in that time.

I know I'M not voting for anyone giving the DLC and republicans what they want.

And I really don't fucking care about the "lesser evil" arguments anymore. The system is broken, and I will NOT reward betrayal. EVER.

[RBInMaine]

57. Would you like a pillow to punch? Now now now, it'll be ok. Need some cookies and milk?

[BP2]

22. You've hit the nail on the head. If you tell your Base to piss off, don't be

surprised when they actually do.

[totodeinhere]

23. I don't think she will actually lose.

But if it's fairly close even in Massachusetts, that has got to be bad news for the Dems' prospects in November.

[provis99]

24. since the DLC has said F* you to the liberals, I'm not surprised they're not enthusiastic.

There will be a lot of pissed off liberals sitting out the 2010 midterms.

[pundaint]

25. Here's a data point. I'm a Massachusetts voter. If Brown wins, this lousy health-care

bill is more likely to be rejected. It's only a three-year term, if the direction remains the same, incumbents in three years wont have a chance. I have spent more than six months calling and writing my elected representatives and president telling them what my will is in regard to this bill, they are all Democrats. I have been ignored. If the state of the bill is not greatly improved by Jan 18, Brown gets my vote on Jan 19. The only power the People have left is the vote. I will use mine to do what I can to avoid bad healthcare legislation from being passed. I'm done voting for parties, I've begun to vote for effect.

[scytherius]

31. Agreed.

That is all we have left. I am doing somewhat the same thing as I am no longer voting. Oh I will vote for something like Gay Marriage, but vote for a politician? FUCK no.

[wisteria]

32. What a sour point of view- simply because the bill is not as YOU want it to be.

This chance will not come around again and the bill can always be amended later on. I would rather have some reform then none at all. I would never attempt to sabotage the chances of this bill passing by trying to elect a Republican.

[girl gone mad]

36. The bill woud be a total and complete disaster..

for the party and for working people.

[pundaint]

39. Why the hell would I vote any other way than for what I want?

I'm not sabotaging anything, I may be voting against something. I don't see this as reform at all, I see it as too little help offered at an unaffordable price to my country by the very thieves that constitute the whole problem in the first place.

[Zhade]

51. The chance won't come around again if it DOES pass. You're naive if you think otherwise.

I agree about not voting for any republican -- I'd simply not vote and try to get a known republican voter drunk so he forgets to vote that day. : p

[RBInMaine]

50. So what is your alternative?

[RBInMaine]

53. It is just a start, and in a big diverse country they have to compromise. Kindly get real.

[NYC Liberal]

61. Pathetic. It's not what YOU want, so screw everyone else

"If the state of the bill is not greatly improved by Jan 18, Brown gets my vote on Jan 19"

Elect more Republicans, and the chances of ANY reform go to zero. Not just "some" reform, but any. But I supposed for you, that's better. You've been calling Democratic representatives? Try calling your Republican one if it comes to that, and see how far that goes.

[wisteria]

27. This is the frist poll I have seen where he is ahead. I have my doubts about these numbers.

The Repubs are trying real hard to make media noise about this race, and energize their base. I am cautiously optomistic about this race, because Mass voters are usually so well informed- the Dem ones anyway- and they know it is important to go out and vote. However, a little push couldn't hurt.

[bertman]

28. Fool me once . . .

Won't get fooled again.



DLC, are you listening?

[scytherius]

30. We elect you to change things, you don't, this is what happens

WE STAY HOME.

THe overwhelming number of Americans prefer Progressive policies. They aren't progressvies, of course, but they prefer them over GOP. But when we elect you to make change, we give oyu 60 Senate seats and oyu piss it away through greed, cowardice and ineptitude, well, why should we vote? SO the GOP gets the country. Big deal. They will destroy the Nation so badly that maybe we will finally get some change.

But, I have no hopes for America. We tried. We worked our asses off. We had the chance for the first time in generations to change things and it has been pissed away.

I'm sitting home for sure. So the Dems lose. BFD. I just do NOT care anymore. This Nation is going to get EXACTLY what it deserves.

[Name removed]

54. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[tkmorris]

60. Commentary such as this is beneath the dignity of DU

Well, it should be anyway.

[Davis_X_Machina]

40. Look on the bright side of a Coakley loss.....

Shouldn't anyone in MA interested in improving the long-term prospects for the Democrats in Congress vote for Brown?

Turning the MA seat over to the GOP means a return to the HC status quo. Sure the status quo sucks, but it sucks less than the bill in Congress, right? At least there'd be no unpopular mandates, no handouts for insurance companies... That's DU gospel.

Of course you'd be even less likely to ever see a public option, never mind single-payer, any time soon, if Brown gets into the Senate -- we'll leave cap-and-trade, EFCA, judicial nominations, etc... out of the discussion since none of them are as important as HCR -- but Brown's election would kill the bill -- the very bill that I keep getting told is worse than the status quo.

And everyone knows that killing that bill is the only way to prevent a voter backlash against congressional Democrats, leading to a '94-style blowout this fall, followed by the loss of the White House in 2012.

So the real progressive vote is to vote for Brown, right?

[pundaint]

41. Agree with 4 of your 5 paragraphs, but:

We are closer to public option now than with the current state of the bill. Giving all of our healthcare dollars to insurance companies for them to take their cut first, then pass the leftovers to the actual healthcare providers isn't a obvious path to single payer for me, and that's where actual reform lies.

Cap and trade is a way for companies which would never be generating carbon anyway to get money for enabling the real polluters to keep polluting at a cheaper rate than by requiring the actual attenuation of the carbon pollution. It's a money swap with no reform. Ain't these corporatist's clever? - they've suckered some of us with another sham reform approach.

Any Dems pushing EFCA now?

The president will still be making the same nominations with 57 democrats as he would with 58.

As anybody knows, the only way to get a Donkey's attention is with a 2 x 4! It IS unfortunate that it is true, even of our donkey.

[bertman]

47. Well said, pundaint.

[RBInMaine]

55. Brown is a right wing asshat right out of the Bush Cheney mold. Piss on him and anyone who would

cast a vote for that RePUKE asswipe.

[robo50]

44. There is one incredibly major flaw in this polling, which is phone polling...

Here it is:

"If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 11%
30 to 45........................................................... 18%
46 to 65........................................................... 48%
Older than 65 .................................................. 23%

71% of those polled were 46 and older..only 29% of those polled were 45 and under. Almost HALF of the respondents, 48% were 46-65.

That's NOT a representative slice of Mass voters, in a break-down by age.
Not only that, they were reached by phone, and so likely stay-at-home folks who answer the phone for a poll.
This poll reached the home-schooling moms and unemployed dads.
TRUE, young people don't vote except for Obama last year. BUT ALSO TRUE, 48% of voters in Mass are NEVER in a 20 year age span.

[Tx4obama]

46. January 10th --- Boston Globe --- Coakley 53, Brown 36 --- Coakley +17 n/t

[Abq_Sarah]

58. Looks like an outlier

I'd be interested to see how it is weighted. +7/+9 I could believe but +17 in light of the other polls seems out of line.

[Tx4obama]

59. The PPP poll is the one that is flawed. Coakley is way ahead in all the other polls n/t

[Blasphemer]

62. If the +17 and the +1 are both outliers, then +9 seems about right

I don't believe that this race is close but +17 does seem a bit high.