Senate poll: Coakley up 15 points

[ccharles000]

Source: Boston.com

Democrat Martha Coakley, buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, 15-percentage-point lead over Republican rival Scott Brown as the race for US Senate enters the homestretch, according to a new Boston Globe poll of likely voters.

Half of voters surveyed said they would pick Coakley, the attorney general, if the election were held today, compared with 35 percent who would pick Brown. Nine percent were undecided, and a third candidate in the race, independent Joseph L. Kennedy, received 5 percent.

Coakley’s lead grows to 17 points - 53 percent to 36 percent - when undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included in the tally. The results indicate that Brown has a steep hill to climb to pull off an upset in the Jan. 19 election. Indeed, the poll indicated that nearly two-thirds of Brown’s supporters believe Coakley will win.

“She’s simply better known and better liked than Brown,’’ said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll for the Globe.

Read more: http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/10/senate_poll_coakley_up_15_points/

[dkf]

1. Looks like that ppp poll is way off huh?

Thanks for the post

[pundaint]

3. Looks like one of them is...

[No Elephants]

22. Maybe it depends on the dates. Martha recently got the endorsement of all the Kennedys.

(Teds family, that is. A Joseph Kennedy, no relative, is running against Martha.)

[bluestateguy]

2. Hopefully the PPP poll will whip her ass into shape

nt

[No Elephants]

5. Martha is Martha.

[No Elephants]

4. "Meltdown" Brown, "Centerfold" Brown

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=158x15117

He should be nowhere near Coakley in the polls (even though his daughter, whom he uses in his ads, was a popular American Idol contestant).

Many consider Massachusetts the bluest state because:

Massachusetts, in 1972, was the one and only state in the nation to vote for McGover/Shriver against two crooks, Nixon/Agnew, when Nixon won the popular vote by the largest margin ever and McGovern did not carry even his home state.

Massachusetts, in 1980, was only one of only six states (plus D.C.) to go for Carter/Mondale against Reagan/Bush 41, when the electoral vote was Mondale 49, Reagan, 489. (Sadly, even Massachusetts went for Reagan/Bush in 1984, though, when Mondale/Ferraro won only a single state and D.C.)

Massacchusetts, for as long as most can remember, has had as its Senators either John Kennedy, and the Lion of the Senate, Ted Kennedy (or a Kennedy designated place holder), and Kerry. They are among the most liberal in that body. Even Brooke, a "Lincoln Republican," was liberal.

Massachusetts, of course, went for Favorite Son Kerry in 2004, for Gore in 2000, and for Obama in 2008.

And, for those of you who know that Massachusetts tends to elect a lot of Republican Governors, they usually run on liberal platforms, even Romney--though Romney changed every one of his faux liberal positions after Dummya's victory.

Someone like Scott Brown should not even have a chance in Massachusetts. If he is even close, that would show, IMO, either that Coakley is a weak candidate or that people are REALLY dissatisfied with Democrats, even in Massachusetts.

[RBInMaine]

7. RePUKES tend to be more reliable on turnout in off-cycle races, so don't use this to guage the

entire political landscape just yet. I have seen PPP results before which have been WAY off base.These races are about local/state dynamics as well. RePUKES have something to run AGAINST here: OBAMA. They are so sore over his win in '08 that they are in fact ginned up to go out and get some "revenge". Also, Coakley has been too lax and uninspiring. You can NEVER take anything for granted, especially in an off-cycle race. What Coakley needs to do in this last week is get more passionate, do a lot of visible events, put up some very pointed ATTACK ads showcasing Brown as the asshat right winger he is (he is WAY out of step with Massachusetts values), and, more than anything, get her people working the phones and doors bigtime mainly targeting liberal WOMEN who have a chance for the first time to put one of their own into that seat. This will mainly be about TURNOUT. As long as the Dems get their turnout, she'll win it by 5-10 points. * Her website shows lots of phone banks all over the state. If those are going strong, and if their urban/union ground game is in place, I think she'll be fine.

[No Elephants]

23. I am not using anything yet. I said "if." But, phone polls don't measure turnout.

And, if Republicans do turnout in large numbers, why would that change the political landscape in Martha's favor?

As for Coakley being uninspiring, sigh. As I posted upthread, Martha is Martha. I think she is an intellectual lightweight, who won in Massachusetts mostly bc she is a female. All other three primary candidates were much sharper on the issues, but they, too, lacked dynamism.

If she loses, so will the health care bill--and some Democrats who hate the bill may stay home or vote against her for just that reason--although I hope they are not that short sightedd.

[RBInMaine]

35. All this silly bitching about the health bill. It's in conference, and it is just a START. Chill.

[Abq_Sarah]

45. No, it's not in "conference"

We are bypassing the traditional conference committee and the House will offer amendments to the Senate bill. It's an informal process that's not done on the floor.

[chelsea0011]

14. And not only did Romney out and out lie about policies to get elected,

he ran against a very weak Dem candidate that year.

[No Elephants]

24. On the bright side, Romney did not kill too many people. He ruined a lot of lives, though.

Wait, I take that back. I was thinking of the one person killed in the Big Dig tunnel. However, Romneycare is probably responsible for a good number of deaths and Republican policies are never good for the poor, including as to their health/ability to survive.

[robcon]

6. Of course, it all depends who shows up to vote.

In a one-race election, voter interest is hard to predict.

[Xipe Totec]

9. Bingo!

I had forgotten that the election is on January 19th; a week from Tuesday.

These off-season elections can sneak up on you.

[No Elephants]

25. No, it also depends on how they vote once they are at the polls. If

Brown is polling that well, he is getting the votes of a lot of Independents who voted for Obama and Kerry in the last two Presidential elections and also probably some Democratic votes.

That is assuming, of course, that the polls are correct.

[RBInMaine]

8. Here is what Coakley MUST do to win this:

What Coakley needs to do in this last week is get more passionate, do a lot of visible events, put up some very pointed ATTACK ads showcasing Brown as the asshat right winger he is and how WAY out of step he is with liberal Massachusetts values, and, more than anything, get her people working the phones and doors bigtime mainly targeting WOMEN who have a chance for the first time to put one of their own into that seat. This will mainly be about TURNOUT. As long as the Dems get their turnout, she'll win it by 5-10 points. * Her website shows lots of phone banks all over the state. If those are going strong, and if their urban/union ground game is in place, she'll be fine. But they need to hunker down and work their asses off in this endgame.

[secondwind]

10. this is the email we received this morning:

Martha needs your help NOW - so even if you can't make it to an event - you can still help by donating any amount at
https://coakley.zissousecure.com/contribute/PFP/mmk

or by emailing or calling headquarters to see how you can volunteer - [e-mail] Phone: [phone]

In Case you having been following the new closely:
An independent group, the American Future Fund, will be spending $300,000 on television advertisements in this senate race between now and January 12. The American Future Fund is a conservative organization whose leaders helped produce the Willie Horton advertisement used against Governor Dukakis and the Swift Boat advertisement used against Senator Kerry. While we have not yet seen the advertisement; we expect it will be negative against Martha. We also expect that the Fund will spend significant additional funds between January 12 and election day, January 19.This is a significant development in the race. Combining the Brown campaign and the American Future Fund spending, we are currently slated to be outspent on television

The latest Rasmussen poll finds Scott Brown narrowing Martha's lead to only nine points - and
> Among voters who are "absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley," OUCH!

[robo50]

11. I wonder why Coakley is so invisible on a daily basis

I get Boston news stations and I saw her with the Kennedy family and she DOES show up for debates, but other than that, she's never
getting any news air-time.

She should be out there 3 times a week with some news, an event, something her Attorney General office is doing, or with
something to scare the voters into going out on a cold January Tuesday to vote against the numbskull from Wrentham.

Instead she's almost invisible outside of the debates.

I'd like to see an even with the Mass Congressional delegation, all of them, standing with her someplace, working the phones, and going after the younger voters, those 30 and under to get them to the polls on Jan 19th.

Coakley needs to go from nice woman to strong challenger against the bullshit Brown is putting out there.

[rox63]

12. Then WTF is my local (Boston) teevee news highlighting the PPP poll

that has Brown ahead of Coakley by 1 point?

I hope MA Dems don't get complacent and not show up at the polls. Remember the last time that happened (Mittens), when another telegenic, well-spoken Repuke was on the ballot?

[rgbecker]

13. Another well spoken Republican.....Here's Scott Brown: Waterboarding:

"I believe that it's not torture. America does not torture. We used agressively enhanced interrogation techniques."

We want this guy representing Massachusetts, and a status quo situation in the Health Care Insurance industry?

I Don't Think So.

[rox63]

38. He's a Repuke, whaddya expect?

Just get all the Dems you can to the polls on election day.

[HughMoran]

17. 1) to stir controversy 2) the PPP poll was out first 3) perhaps they are biased?

Which station is pushing the -1 ppp poll, Fox? :rofl:

[rox63]

39. Both WBZ (CBS) and WCVB (ABC) were pushing it this morning

Grrr...

[No Elephants]

26. Boston media is no different from other media. They lean Republican.

[Robbien]

15. Healthcare Lobbyists Descend On Massachusetts To Save The 60th Vote For Reform

We've been following the special election in Massachusetts, where the GOP hopes to pull a surprise upset in the race to fill Ted Kennedy's seat.

If they do pull it off, healthcare reform is instantly in trouble, as the Democrats drop below 60.

But money is coming to the rescue of Democrat Martha Coakley -- healthcare industry lobbyist money, specifically.

Tim Carney identifies several of her top fundraisers. Take a look at who they represent:

* Thomas Boggs, Patton Boggs: Bristol-Myers Squibb
* Chuck Brain, Capitol Hill Strategies: Amgen, BIO, Merck, PhRMA
* Susan Brophy, Glover Park Group: Blue Cross, Pfizer
* Steven Champlin, Duberstein Group: AHIP, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis
* Licy Do Canto, Raben Group: Amgen
* Gerald Cassidy, Cassidy & Associates: U. Mass Memorial Health Care
* David Castagnetti, Mehlman, Vogel, Castagnetti: Abbot Labs, AHIP, Astra-Zenaca, General Electric, Humana, Merck, PhRMA.
* Steven Elmendorf, Elmendorf Strategies: Medicines Company, PhRMA, United Health
* Shannon Finley, Capitol Counsel: Amgen, Astra-Zeneca, Blue Cross, GE, PhRMA, Sanofi-Aventis.
* Heather Podesta, Heather Podesta & Partners: Cigna, Eli Lilly, HealthSouth
* Tony Podesta, Podesta Group: Amgen, GE, Merck, Novartis.
* Robert Raben, Raben Group: Amgen, GE.

Of course, this is how politics works. Lobbyists for various corporations and causes get involved wherever they can for candidates of both parties. But when you see all these big pharma (and insurance!) representatives coming with cash for a crucial vote, you know which side they're on

http://www.businessinsider.com/healthcare-lobbyists-descend-on-massachusetts-to-save-the-60th-vote-for-reform-2010-1

[BolivarianHero]

18. Interesting...

So the Democrats are running a paid health insurance industry shill and the Republicans are running somebody who bashed queers to high school students. As far as I'm concerned, MA loses no matter who wins this one.

[Tippy]

21. Martha Coakley for Senate web site

<http://www.marthacoakley.com/>

[No Elephants]

32. Her website says she will support a public option. Is that what you were referring to?

Re: Your tag line: I agree with the beginning of it. I have reached the stage where I would consider re-registering Independent (or unenrolled) and maybe also voting third party, but I would still vote for a yellow dog before I voted for a Republican. And that becomes more true almost every day.

[No Elephants]

27. The donations are well worth it. Look how high their stock went bc of the "health care" reform bill.

Gack. Brown could really do some damage publicizing that.

[scipan]

30. The author, Tim Carney, wrote "Obamanomics"

He is definitely right wing. I wouldn't necessarily trust his statements.

[No Elephants]

31. A lawsuit for libel by a public figure is hard, but not impossible. If a

Republican is lying about specifics like that, Martha could very likely nail him in court. Of course, if the Republican Party has promised to indemnify him if she sues him amd wins, that would not concern him.

[HughMoran]

16. -1 from an outside the state poll, or +15 from the local Boston Globe

...you make the call ;)

[RBInMaine]

33. Actually though, the polling firm is out of New Hampshire. Close, but not quite Mass. Still,

probably more accurate.

[HughMoran]

46. UNH does all of the Globe polls

They are the experts in the area of polling.

[Tippy]

19. Found this on RealClearPolitics

A Tale Of Two Polls:

A Public Policy Polling survey released Saturday night showed a potential upset in the making, with Republican state Sen. Scott Brown (R) leading Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) in the Massachusetts Senator special election.

Now, a survey from the University of New Hampshire in Sunday's Boston Globe (554 LVs, 1/2-6, MoE +/- 4.2%) shows a much safer result for Democrats, with Coakley ahead by double digits.

Special Election Matchup (No Leaners)
Coakley 50
Brown 35
Und 9


<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/index.html>

On edit...I see both these polls have been quoted.. but the article went on to say...a low turn out could either way...Weather could choose MA next Senator....

[RBInMaine]

34. Real Clear is RePUKE in its commentary.

[TomCADem]

20. What's The Best Way To Contribute? ActBlue or Directly To Her?

[No Elephants]

29. The best way to contribute? Fast.

[RBInMaine]

37. Directly to her website. I am too.

[TomCADem]

41. Is the website www.marthacoakley.com?

I was expecting a CoakleyforSenate.com type website.

http://www.marthacoakley.com/

[RBInMaine]

43. I think that's right. If you keyworded Coakley For Senate, that should be it. You can donate there

easily online as I just did today.

[No Elephants]

28. A factor no one on this thread has mentioned yet: The third candidate in the race is

Joseph I. Kennedy, Independent. I bet a lot of Massachusetts folk will assume he is a relative of JFK and Ted, but he isn't.

I have a feeling it is no coincidence whatever that a Kennedy is the third candidate in the race--and the irony is that they probably got the idea from Joseph P. Kennedy, who did something similar when Jack first ran for Congress.

[RBInMaine]

36. Just saw the Mass WGBY debate from other day. Coakley was the best.

She was actually pretty damn good, and better than the other two who are ultra corporate right wing asshats. Brown's mouth was full of marbles and bullshit. He sits there and talks about what a huge "difference" he is going be by recycling the same old same old cut-taxes-for-the-rich-and-I'm-against-spending horseshit. He is Bush/Cheney redux, and Coakley cornered him on it when she pressed and he refused to answer whether he would keep the tax cuts for the rich. Of course he tried to spin away from that by re-framing those tax cuts as "tax cuts for small business" etc., then he again tried to marry himself to the policies of JFK. The guy is an asshat. The only thing she didn't do well enough (she did to an extent but should have been more assertive) was saying, "We tried it your way for 8 years and it was a disaster. Now we are trying to fix it. You want to go back. Sorry, we aren't going back to those disasterous policies."

[pundaint]

40. I saw it too, and none of them deserve a vote. 2 idiots and a weasel

[RBInMaine]

42. If you can find time to stop bitching, why don't you run for office?

[RBInMaine]

44. Interesting how some "progressives" bitch a-plenty, but depend completely on the Democratic Party

not only for the most progressiveness they are going to get in this country, but also for their organizational apparatus. The Green Party is a joke. Even my downright socialist father left them. A bunch of disorganized flakes was his impression. So either organize and prove you can win elections on your own right, or stop the nonsensical pissing and moaning and count your blessings with the party that CAN beat RePUKES.

[Nye Bevan]

47. A good thread to bookmark, to remember some important lessons

A 15 point lead with a week to go means *nothing*, especially if you have a terrible candidate and your opponent has the momentum.

[RussBLib]

48. Can we be certain there was no monkey business?

The Republicans were already alledging cheating before the vote. What with no real resolution to the rigged electronic voting machines, can we be confident at all that this election was not stolen?

I guarantee that the right would have been screaming "stolen!" if Coakley had won, but I guess the Dems are just too pussy-fied to allege something like that.

I tell ya, if there was a viable left-leaning third party, I'd be in it. All this "have to have 60 votes" to pass anything is such bullshit. Whatever happened to majority rule?