Jobs figures stun (Australia) for second straight month

[denem]

Source: ABC (Aus)

Unemployment tumbled from 5.7 to 5.5 per cent in December because of the creation of 35,200 jobs.

The survey figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show there was a seasonally adjusted increase in full-time employment of 7,300, with part-time employment increasing by 27,900.

Economists were expecting 10,000 jobs to have been created in December, with a Bloomberg survey revealing the average forecast was for unemployment to rise to 5.8 per cent, and the Reuters survey predicting unemployment to remain steady at 5.7 per cent.

"It's an extraordinary result. I think even the sceptic will have to concede that unemployment has probably peaked now, and far below initial forecasts," Macquarie senior economist, Brian Redican, told Reuters.

Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/14/2792138.htm?section=justin

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Australia is strong resources economy that tracks the overall state of the world economy. When world markets crashed as one, the outlook looked bleak. However, from the outset, the Rudd Labor Government embarked on more or less the most aggressive fiscal stimulus of all OECD economies. Two stimulus packages, took the Federal Budget from a $20 billion surplus to a $50 billion+ deficit. (In US terms, the equivalent of a $1.725 trillion injection.)

The stimulus did not include reductions in the formal tax rates to avoid cannibalizing the revenue base in the longer term.

The government settled instead on targeted payouts, substantial "cash plash" bonuses, paid to income earners and welfare recipients at critical times. In addition there were permanent. indexed increases in pensions and other social security payments, where virtually all the money paid out would go back into the economy from those most in need.

Also , an extensive infrastructure campaign was rolled out, much at break neck speed, together with longer term projects such as National Fiber to the Home internet , with a free choice amongst competing carriers.

It worked. Unemployment, usually comparable to the US, was held to less then 6%, and is heading straight down .

At the time. the Conservative Opposition denounced the stimulus as 'reckless', 'wasteful', 'out of control deficit spending', 'mortgaging the future of our children'. With that theory out the window, the long term costs of the recession being largely avoided, they are moving onto Interest Rates.

Somewhere, John Maynard Keynes must be smiling.

[bluestateguy]

1. Kevin Rudd is terrific

nt

[WriteDown]

2. Australia's extremely strict immigration policies should also be credited...

Works for most progressive nations.

[denem]

4. Australia has very liberal immigration: 460,000 new immigrants in 3 years

2006 - 2009. in a country of 22 million.

The Political Debate in Australia concern unauthorized refugees. Australia takes 15,000 refugees, more per capita as than most. The unauthorized arrivals are resented as 'queue jumpers'.

[WriteDown]

14. I was of course referring to "illegal" immigration...

As someone who has thought about emigrating to Australia, I'm always impressed by their requirements for specific labor types, qualifications, etc.

[galileoreloaded]

16. Australia has a Draconian immigration policy...

having just filling out paperwork for a 457 (sponsored work permit), I assure you that their points system is brutal in the selection when you attempt to reside there permanently. Over 35, forget it. No appreciable skills, forget it.

I lose my job (if I take it), and I have 20 days I think and I am persona non grata.

Fortunately, there is billions and billions in infrastructure and mining/energy projects, and there are few qualified to manage them. Lucky for me, I suppose.

24 hours on an airplane, ugh.

[rve300]

3. Most of that cash went into slot machines

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-act/rudds-poker-machine-boost/story-e6freuzi-1111118694604


The economy here is chugging along despite Kevin Rudd not because of him.

[denem]

5. Daily Telegraph = Rupert Murdoch

Need I say more? The official figures tell a different story. The pension bonus for December 2008 'saved Christmas'. But go with Rupert -'you can help the poor' diatribes if you want.

[depakid]

6. The Rudd government actually listened to progressive economists

As in- the ones who got it right. And (as usually happens when you listen to folks who aren't beholden to failed ideology) the results were much better thn expected.

It also helped that, at the time, the opposition wasn't run by full fledged nutters- and that there weren't corrupt "Republicrats" in his own party blocking every move.

[denem]

8. The Opposition IS run by full fledged nutters now.

In retrospect, the Rudd Government had a window of opportunity, and grabbed it.

[depakid]

17. The mad monk

God's gift to Labor...

along with his barking mad dog Barnaby Joyce..

They even trotted out Wilson Tuckey (Australia's version of Strom Thurmond)) the other day!

[Unvanguard]

7. You need to learn the definition of "most", even taking that article at face value. n/t

[denem]

9. ???

[Unvanguard]

11. 500 million is not "most" of 10 billion.

Edit: My reply was to rve300 above, not to your OP.

[denem]

13. Understood. The Stimulus was 7.4% of Australian GDP.

[rve300]

15. I will concede that it was bad choice of words.

[Violet_Crumble]

19. Not true. Many of us went highbrow and gambled it on the horses!

There were too many of those lazy single mums popping out kids just to get the Baby Bonus at the club and I couldn't find a spare pokie, so I took my tax bonus and stimulated the racing industry as I snickered away about how all those dead people were getting paid a tax bonus as well! What would we do without the likes of the Daily Telegraph and Today Tonight to feed us silly stereotypes and keep us dumb and mean? ;)

[Unvanguard]

10. What determined the scope of the US stimulus package was politics, not economics.

The question is not, "Was it too small and too tax-oriented?" Obviously it was. The question is, "Could we reasonably have done better, given the concerns so many politicians had about the federal deficit?"

[depakid]

12. The administration had unprecedented political capital- and the opportunity to use it

Instead of listening to the economists with track records of "getting it right" -they chose what were known at the time to be half measures- many of them ineffective, that weren't going to come close to closing the output gap, shielding state and local budgets from politically unpalatable and economically destructive service cuts and tax and fee hikes- nor adding jobs at a rate necessary to get regional economies moving again with multiplier effects.

Thus- America in 2010 is at a substantial risk of seeing a double-dip recession, and will at best plod along with a long, largely jobless recovery.

It didn't have to be that way... but that's what the leadership in Congress and the administration settled for- leaving the Democrats in the unenviable position of trying to put together a second round of job stimulus in an election year.

[roamer65]

18. Australia feeds China's hunger for raw materials.

Australia owes much of this to the vibrant Chinese economy.