STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 14

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 14, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 13, 2010

Dow... 10,680.77 +53.51 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq... 2,307.90 +25.59 (+1.12%)
S&P 500... 1,145.68 +9.46 (+0.83%)
Gold future... 1,138 +8.60 (+0.76%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.79 +0.08 (+2.13%)
30-Year Bond 4.71 +0.09 (+2.01%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Mr. Puplava sounds like Tim Wood. - ozymandius

Commodity Secular Bull Market Continues
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

From 2008 to 2009 it was a real gut check for commodity bulls in terms of reevaluating the secular bull market thesis, but from my vantage point the fundamentals behind commodities have not changed. What 2008 to early 2009 is likely to represent in hindsight is a bump along the road not unlike the mid 1970s correction in commodities before the 1980 bubble top or the 1987 market crash before the 2000 stock market peak. What 2008-2009 also showed is the importance of capital preservation as taking periodic profits ensures that profits gained are not lost.

One of the key drivers for higher commodity prices this decade was a devastating secular bear market in commodities in the 1980s to 1990s that led to production cutbacks due to lower prices and many commodity-related companies were gobbled up by the majors. As we entered this decade the sleeping giant that is China emerged at the same time commodity production capacity was low. Throughout the decade supply has struggled to keep up with demand with periodic price spikes occurring in various commodities when supply levels became strained. While it appeared to some that commodities represented a bubble in 2008, nothing could be further from the truth. Since the peak in commodities that occurred in 2008 we have seen two major developments that supports the notion that the thesis behind the secular bull market in commodities is as strong as ever. For example, in 2008 for the first time ever non-OECD countries surpassed OECD countries in terms of global energy consumption as the developing nations became more important than the developed countries in gauging world energy consumption. ...

As mentioned above, 2008-2009 was a real gut check for commodity bulls as commodity prices collapsed, but when one studies history the collapse in 2008-2009 was not out of the norm as nearly an identical collapse was seen in the middle of the 1970s during the last secular bull market in commodities. This comparison can be seen below when comparing the current CRB Raw Industrials Index to its 1966-1981 secular bull market in which a sharp correction took place in the middle of the secular bull market in 1974-1975. After that sharp sell off commodities recovered strongly and went on to nearly double in price to close out the 1970s. We appear to be continuing that secular bull market script as commodities recovered strongly in 2009 and are building on those gains this year. A similar pattern is also seen when comparing the S&P 500 Energy Index this decade versus the commodity price pattern seen in the last secular bull market in the 1970s.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 01/09
Briefing.com 450K
Consensus 436K
Prior 434K

08:30 Continuing Claims 1/2
Briefing.com 4725K
Consensus 4750K
Prior 4802K

08:30 Retail Sales Dec
Briefing.com 1.0%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 1.3%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.3%
Prior 1.2%

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.7%

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.4%

10:00 Business Inventories Nov
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.3%
Prior 0.2%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

30. Initial Claims @ 444,000 - Dec Sales fall 0.3%

U.S. import prices up 8.6% in 2009
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. non-fuel import prices up 0.4%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec import prices unchanged, as expected
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. continuing claims down 211,000 to 4.60 mln
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 4-week avg. claims down 9,000 to 440,750
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. jobless claims up 11,000 to 444,000
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. retail sales decline 0.3%
8:30 a.m. Today | By Rex Nutting | Comments: 4

U.S. 2009 retail sales fall record 6.2%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. gasoline sales up 1.0%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. general merchandise store sales -0.8%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. auto sales fall 0.8%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Nov. retail sales revised up to 1.8% vs.1.3%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. retail sales ex-autos fall 0.2%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Dec. retail sales fall 0.3% vs 0.5% expected
8:30 a.m. Today

[DemReadingDU]

34. Retail sales unexpectedly fall in December

1/14/10 Retail sales unexpectedly fall in December

Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in December as consumer spent less on vehicles and an array of other goods during the holiday shopping month, data showed on Thursday, raising concerns about the durability of the economy's recovery.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales fell 0.3 percent last month, the first decline in three months, after rising by an upwardly revised 1.8 percent in November. Sales in November were previously reported to have increased 1.3 percent.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales gaining 0.5 percent last month.

Compared to December 2008, sales rose 5.4 percent, but fell 6.2 percent for the whole of 2009.

Motor vehicle purchases fell 0.8 percent, while sales at electronics and appliance stores dropped 2.6 percent.

The data, coming in the wake of a report last week showing a surprise drop in non-farm payrolls in December, could add to worries that the economic expansion that started in the third quarter of 2008 could falter once government stimulus ends.

Stubbornly high unemployment remains the weakest link in the recovery from the worst economic downturn since the 1930s. Job worries are expected to constrain consumer spending, which normally accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales fell 0.2 percent in December, the biggest decline since July, after rising 1.9 percent the prior month. Economists had expected a 0.3 percent increase.

Core retail sales, which excludes autos, gasoline and building materials, fell 0.3 percent after rising 0.9 percent in November.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retail-sales-unexpectedly-rb-2844458830.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[Tansy_Gold]

35. "unexpectedly"??? I don't think so.

At least not by any regular SMWer.


TG

[tclambert]

51. Continuing claims are down. But what does that really mean?

Something good? No, I suppose not. Maybe just a little good? Please?

[UpInArms]

55. no longer able to qualify for unemployment insurance

means fewer long term claimants

sorry - no good news

[ozymandius]

3. Oil shoots above $80 as traders eye rising stocks

SINGAPORE – Oil prices peeked above $80 a barrel Thursday in Asia as rising stock markets ahead of fourth quarter earnings cheered crude investors. ...

Most major Asian stock indexes gained Thursday after the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.5 percent Wednesday. Companies began reporting fourth quarter earnings this week with chipmaker Intel Corp. is expected to post results Thursday and banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co. on Friday.

Oil investors often look to stock markets as a measure of overall investor sentiment about the economy. ....

In other Nymex trading in February contracts, heating oil rose 0.7 cents to $2.10 a gallon and gasoline gained 0.74 cent to $2.07 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 0.7 cent to $5.74.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Panel to hear about effort against financial crime

WASHINGTON – Attorney General Eric Holder on Thursday will tell a panel investigating the financial crisis that the Justice Department is using "every tool at its disposal" to fight the financial crimes that contributed to the meltdown and could cause another. ....

Holder will highlight the work of a new, interagency Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force created by President Barack Obama to coordinate efforts between the Justice Department and other agencies.

The task force will focus on mortgage and securities fraud, theft of federal stimulus money and financial exploitation of minority communities, Holder has said. He has said it will help restore confidence in the financial markets. ....

Besides Holder, Madigan, Bair and Schapiro, also scheduled to testify to the panel Thursday are Assistant Attorney General Lanny Breuer; Colorado Attorney General John Suthers; Denise Voigt Crawford, commissioner of the Texas Securities Board; and Glenn Theobald, chief counsel of the Miami-Dade County Police Department.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100114/ap_on_bi_ge/us_meltdown_investigation

[Demeter]

14. That Would Be Good News, If It Were True

But I'm afraid that some criminals are less guilty than others...

Morning Ozy and crew!

It's 24F and the ice is treacherous. With two days of brilliant sunshine, a lot of the snow has melted enough to cause sheets of glazing at night.

The condo board meeting was very successful last night. Now comes the election of officers amongst the new board next Tuesday.

The association members were very complimentary about the efforts of the board. It's been 5 long hard years to get to where we are now. We are basically re-gentrifying ourselves in the worst housing market in the hardest hit state, but it means we can sell our condos, which is a very good thing.

Happy Thursday!

[fasttense]

18. Why are they looking back? I thought we were supposes to look forward

and not back at crimes committed by rich white men. I guess it's just torture we don't want to look back on.

[tclambert]

19. WHAT?!? There's an effort AGAINST financial crime? Sounds like unwarranted government intrusion

in the smooth workings of the free market, which, as you know, can do no wrong, even when it breaks the law. This must be part of that Kenyan socialist's agenda for subverting capitalism and wealth-based democracy (your influence in politics is related to your net worth). You never would have seen this under the Bush business-friendly administration, the administration of CEOs. Now those people knew business. And that's why business did so well for the last decade.

[tclambert]

23. The news people are already warning against Haiti charity scams

in stories like this: http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/haiti-earthquake-relief-effort-avoid-scams/story?id=9555419 and this: http://blogs.forbes.com/moneybuilder/2010/01/13/how-to-make-sure-your-donation-helps-haitian-earthquake-victims/

The American Red Cross is a safe place to invest your charity dollars.

Honestly, what does it say about our species that some take advantage of natural disaster for personal gain?

[natrat]

33. don't wory, it's just for show

[Ghost Dog]

45. Yeah. Bomb the Kenyans for their crimes

and leave good ol' home-grown rich criminals, sorry, Lords of the Multiverse, alone.

Humph.

[Demeter]

47. Wealth-Based Democracy? An Oxymoron If Ever I Heard One

Equality before the law should have nothing to do with wealth, and "net worth" ought to say something about one's participation in society's efforts to improve the general welfare.

[tclambert]

52. Like it says in the Constitution, "All money is created equal."

That would be the Constitution of the US Chamber of Commerce.

[Po_d Mainiac]

25. Goldman's Blankcheck went on the record

Stating they were never asked to take a haircut on AIG payouts.......AIG/NYFRB says they were not given an option by the banksters and had to pay-in-full......Turbo Tim says he was outa the loop......

There is a 100% chance that someone is lying. Maybe they all are. Capone went down for tax evasion, won't it be ironic that perjury takes down a bankster or four

BRING FORTH :FRSP: FOR ALL

[FarCenter]

38. The top guys never get involved

They negotiate through their underlings and especially through their lawyers.

Apparently, someone down the food chain was asked whether GS would take a haircut. Flunky responded that he could not speak for the firm to answer the question. The topic never came up again.

I'd bet that the reason that AIG paid in full is that several of the foreign banks insisted on it, and they would have pushed AIG into bankruptcy, rather than take a haircut. After all, a properly hedged foreign bank would have protected its AIG position with an offsetting position with another firm, so they would have nothing to lose in pushing AIG to bankruptcy.

[ozymandius]

5. Foreclosures May Rise to Record 3 Million U.S. Homes This Year

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year as high unemployment and depressed home values leave borrowers unable to make their house payment or sell, according to a RealtyTrac Inc. forecast.

Last year there were 2.82 million foreclosures, the most since RealtyTrac began compiling data in 2005. More than 4.5 million filings are expected this year, including default or auction notices and bank seizures, said Rick Sharga, senior vice president for the Irvine, California-based seller of default data and forecasts. There were 3.96 million filings in 2009. ...

Government and lender efforts to keep people in their homes are failing to relieve the worst foreclosure crisis since the Great Depression. Unemployment was 10 percent in December, unchanged from the previous month, while the so-called underemployment rate that includes part-time workers and discouraged workers rose to 17.3 percent from 17.2 percent, the Labor Department said Jan. 8.

U.S. lenders permanently modified 31,382 mortgages, or 1 percent, of the 4 million loans targeted under the Obama administration’s foreclosure prevention plan through November, the U.S. Treasury Department said last month. Fewer than half of the 3.2 million homeowners estimated as eligible for mortgage relief by the Treasury actually qualify, according to Herb Allison, assistant secretary for financial stability.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-14/foreclosures-may-rise-to-record-3-million-u-s-homes-this-year.html

[Tansy_Gold]

9. 1 percent. 1 effing percent.

Gee, you'd almost think those guys wasn't really tryin'!

:sarcasm:


As has been said before, without jobs to provide income to repay the loans, no amount of "modification" is going to help this situation.

Based on the comments we've seen posted about Harry Reid's recent confessions regarding dealing with Olympia Snowe and Joe LIEberman, DU was spot on about them and it's a pretty good guess we've been spot on about the economy.

Hey, Barry, ya want some new economic advisors? Take a gander at DU's SMW every day! Ya might learn something!!



G'mornin', Ozy :hi:



Tansy Gold, up after a very shortand suddenly stormy night that had one dog trying to climb onto the bed. . . . .

[ozymandius]

11. Oh, but I think they tried really hard to get these results.

That is: the banksters people who wrote the modification rules probably lost sleep packing this modification program full of things they wanted.

As I mentioned some weeks ago: I wonder why Obama would allow his name and reputation to be attached to this feculent dud of an economic recovery plan? If there were any intent on preserving real estate values then this was merely all glamour and had nothing to do with substance. There's very little in the way of altruism either.

Tansy, I do faithfully acknowledge your sarcasm. Sarcasm is clearly deserved over this worthless mortgage recovery plan.

And good morning :donut: :donut: :donut:

[Demeter]

15. For Some Reason, People Who Run for US President Are Fixated on Foreign Policy

I guess they want to run the world, and running the US isn't sufficiently challenging or rewarding.

The last President who actually focused on home issues was Jimmy Carter. Clinotn tried, but he was so stymied by the Party of No that he turned abroad for his strokes.

Of course, if we had a better functioning federal and state government system, it might be an easier job...

[tclambert]

20. Well, Haiti is kind of a reminder of what terrible poverty exists just a few hundred miles away

and what the word "disaster" really means.

[Demeter]

21. Just Go to NOLA, Don't Even Need a Passport

or I'll drive you through parts of Detroit.

[tclambert]

27. Yeah, somebody ought to rebuild that town.

New Orleans, I mean. Okay, Detroit, too.

Shoot, that means Port-au-Prince is doomed, doesn't it.

[Tansy_Gold]

24. That's what I was pointing out in another thread last night

Much of the disasters of New Orleans and Haiti was actually set in motion years ago, with the imposition and then maintenance of poverty done by outside interests. WE created as much of the devastation in Port-au-Prince as did that nameless earthquake. That poverty was created and sustained by vested interests, and most of us who aren't in Haiti benefited, even tangentially, from that poverty.

It's all unconscionable.


Tansy Gold

[tclambert]

28. I think countries like Haiti are too small to be countries.

When a natural disaster hits, it hits the whole country. They can't call for help from the unaffected provinces. They're all affected. Here, when Florida gets whomped, we can send help from Michigan and Minnesota. You know, in theory. Actually, in practice, too. There are people here who hop in their pickup trucks and head down to help clear up the mess.

I think some larger, richer country needs to adopt Haiti. Does that make me a colonialist? I think colonialism got a bad rap from that crazy King George III guy. Hmmm, a bad leader named George. What does that remind me of?

[Tansy_Gold]

36. If Haiti hadn't been allowed to wallow in such abject poverty for so long

BY COLONIAL POWERS, it might have been able to survive better than it did.

Cuba is bigger, but not by all that much, and it doesn't have the crushing, brutal poverty that is very nearly the hallmark of Haiti.

In truth, size doesn't matter.




TG

[FarCenter]

39. Haiti has been independent since 1804

Its main problem is overpopulation and the consequent destruction of the environment.

Around 3000 people per square mile of arable land.

[Tansy_Gold]

56. Independent -- in name only???

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/01/14-2

<snip>
What's missing is any explanation of why there are so many Haitians living in and around Port-au-Prince and why so many of them are forced to survive on so little. Indeed, even when an explanation is ventured, it is often outrageously false such as a former U.S. diplomat's testimony on CNN that Port-au-Prince's overpopulation was due to the fact that Haitians, like most Third World people, know nothing of birth control.

It may startle news-hungry Americans to learn that these conditions the American media correctly attributes to magnifying the impact of this tremendous disaster were largely the product of American policies and an American-led development model

<end snip>



Colonial powers can continue to oppress even after their colonies win their "freedom." And that's what I was referring to. Rmember that the U.S. supported the brutal dictatorships of the Duvaliers, pere et fils, just as "we" supported Trujillo, Bautista, and others "friendly" to U.S. business interests and less friendly to their own people.


Tansy Gold

[tclambert]

49. But what can Haiti do about it? Because it's small, they don't have the resources

to fix their problems, or deal with an earthquake or a category 3 hurricane. Cuba has 4 times the area (110,861 km^2 vs. 27,751 km^2), but only 10% larger population (11 million vs. 10 million). And Cuba used to have a friend in the Soviet Union, who provided a lot of developmental assistance.

Haiti's problems began with bad colonial government, but they've had over 200 years of independence. If they could have addressed their problems on their own, they've had enough time to get around to it.

If all the Caribbean islands and the Central American countries united, they might be better off.

And size does matter. They said so in the movie Godzilla. If a house cat were the size of a German Shepherd, they wouldn't seem cute and cuddly. And when they sharpened their claws on the couch, you'd need a new couch.

[Ghost Dog]

46. Here's another reminder:

Obama's Indian problem
The Guardian, Monday 11 January 2010

The US president has pledged to improve the lives of Native Americans. But he faces huge challenges, such as those on Pine Ridge Indian reservation where unemployment is more than 80%, the average wage is £4,400 – and life expectancy is 50

/read on... http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2010/jan/11/native-americans-reservations-poverty-obama

[tclambert]

29. By definition anyone who runs for president has to be a narcissistic egomaniac.

They think they should run the whole country? Well, why not the whole world while you're at it? Megalomania applies, too.

[Tansy_Gold]

37. .

Well, that certainly describes me!:evilgrin:

:hi:

[tclambert]

50. I think terrorists fit the profile for narcissistic egomaniac, too.

So I guess the difference is just a matter of career choice. (High school guidance counselors should make a note.)

[Doctor_J]

44. Run the whole world, except for Newark, NOLA, Appalachia, Oakland,

and the other places that could really use their help

[AnneD]

40. In our neck of the woods....

a three dog night meant it was so cold it took 3 dogs to warm the bed up.

When it really got cold all the family gathered in the living room, and slept on pallets around the pot belly stove with the men folk tending the fire through out the night. The entry ways to the other rooms of the house were closed off with quilts to keep the heat in and the draft out.

As crazy as it sounds-I loved going to the Rez to visit family in the winter, freezing outhouse and all.

And for serious Spring storms (they usually had a twister with them), we huddled in the root cellar.

[Ghost Dog]

57. .

:smoke:

[Doctor_J]

43. A friend of a friend was foreclosed 8 months ago, is still living there

his lender is so swamped they haven't gotten to him yet.

[ozymandius]

6. Asian Shares End End Higher; China Tightening Fears Ease

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Asian markets finished mainly higher Thursday, buoyed by a rally on Wall Street as concerns over further monetary tightening in China eased. Stronger-than-expected jobs data also lifted shares in Sydney.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.6% higher and the Shanghai Composite index finished up 1.4%, after falling 3.1% Wednesday. Taiwan's main index ended 1.1% higher, Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 1.6% and South Korea's Kospi Composite rose 0.9%. But Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shed 0.2% by the close. ...

But the Hong Kong market ended slightly lower after falling 2.6% Wednesday, as worries over further tightening by Beijing continued to weigh on policy-sensitive banks and property developers. ....

Markets in Tokyo strengthened, reversing the previous session's loss, with shipping companies, banks and technology blue chips leading the advance. Sony climbed 2.6%, Panasonic finished up 6.1% and Sharp closed 3.2% higher. Among shippers, Nippon Yusen added 5.1% and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines tacked on 7.2%. ...

Among other regional markets, Philippine shares finished 0.8% higher and New Zealand's NZX-50 ended up 0.1%. In late trading, Singapore's Straits Times index was 0.9% higher, Thailand shares traded 0.7% higher, Indonesian shares were up 1.0% and India's Sensex added 0.2%.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100114-703437.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

[ozymandius]

7. Crackdown on Unsupervised Stock Trades May Spur More Brokerages

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission’s plan to ensure all orders sent to U.S. exchanges are subject to risk controls may prompt high-speed trading firms to convert into broker-dealers.

Commissioners voted yesterday to ban brokerages from giving clients unsupervised access to stock markets, a practice that Aite Group LLC says accounts for two of every five shares that change hands in the U.S. SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro said so- called naked sponsored access, in which customers bypass the controls of brokers and reach exchanges directly, may expose the market and firms that offer the service to too much risk.

Regulators would gain more control over high-frequency trading, or strategies that involve sending orders in as little as several hundred microseconds, should users of the practice apply for licenses to buy and sell directly on exchanges. The biggest trading firms will probably choose that route rather than suffer delays imposed by brokerages’ risk checks, according to Jamie Selway of White Cap Trading LLC. ....

Getting a license would authorize the firms to buy and sell securities and require them to register with the SEC. Those that handle orders for customers must also be registered with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, which oversees almost 5,000 brokers.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-14/crackdown-on-unsupervised-stock-trades-may-spur-more-brokerages.html

[Demeter]

16. Translate, Please?

[ozymandius]

8. JPMorgan Earnings May Have Tripled on Investment-Banking Fees

...Earnings at the New York-based company, which plans to report results tomorrow, were probably about $2.57 billion, or 60 cents a share, according to the average estimate of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with net income of $702 million, or 7 cents, in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, who never posted a loss during the financial crisis, is offsetting declines in mortgage banking and credit cards with income from underwriting stocks and bonds. His success in weathering the global credit contraction may allow JPMorgan to restore its dividend to pre- crisis levels before other major banks. ...

Citigroup Inc., the third-biggest U.S. bank behind JPMorgan and Bank of America Corp., may post a loss of $5.03 billion, or 28 cents a share, when it reports earnings on Jan. 19, the Bloomberg survey shows. The following day, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America may report a loss of $926 million, or 52 cents, and San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co. may post a profit of $1.62 billion, or 11 cents, the lowest in four quarters.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aARHaX6b8tWY&pos=7

[ozymandius]

10. Banks face big losses and bonus backlash

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Many of the nation's largest financial firms are set to soon report their latest quarterly results -- and analysts think bonuses won't be the only thing that will be big.

Many forecasts are calling for another bloodbath. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), the nation's largest lender, is expected to report a loss of $3.7 billion in the quarter, according to estimates from Thomson Reuters. That would be BofA's biggest quarterly loss since the crisis first erupted. ....

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Bank of America, for example, have found little relief in their credit card and home equity loan businesses as the nation's unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at 10%. JPMorgan Chase will release its results on January 15. ....

Compounding matters even further this quarter is the fact that overall loan demand continues to remain severely depressed as businesses and consumers are focused on paying down existing debt.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/14/news/companies/banks_quarter/index.htm

[Po_d Mainiac]

26. Probably the only profits are from

Taking discount window money and buying T-bills that are used as collateral for another zilch interest loan from the Fed to "front" more T's for the Fed :circlejerk:

Ain't gotta be a Harvard Endowment Manager to look like a genius doing that.

[ozymandius]

12. Obama to call for bailout tax

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- President Obama on Thursday will call on Congress to tax the largest banks to ensure that U.S. taxpayers don't lose a penny from the federal bailout of the financial, auto and insurance industries over the past year.

The "financial crisis responsibility fee" would target major institutions. It would be levied on those that were the main contributors to the financial crisis and the most significant beneficiaries of the extraordinary actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, a senior administration official said. ....

The president's proposal calls for the tax to be in place for a minimum of 10 years, but longer if necessary. "The fee will stay in place until every penny of TARP is repaid," the official said.

It would take effect on June 30 and is estimated to raise $90 billion over 10 years. More than 60% of the money is likely to come from the 10 largest financial institutions...

Firms could be subject to the fee even if they never took TARP funds or if they took TARP funds but repaid them. That's because all major financial institutions benefited directly and indirectly from the efforts to stabilize the financial system, the official said.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/14/news/economy/bailout_tax/index.htm

---

$90 billion over ten years?! That's it? This administration can do better. Ten years to repay these funds will leave the final payment worth less than the original sum issued.

[DemReadingDU]

32. The perception is that administration is doing something

But will any of the funds actually be repaid?

[ozymandius]

13. Estimated GSE Losses = $448 Billion

Laurie Goodman is a well regarded expert on securitization and MBS. She is a former UBS analyst — Institutional Investor top ranked — and is now at Amherst Securities. In a 17 page report released Tuesday, Goodman tried to create an estimate of the total losses that the now-government-owned GSEs might accrue.

This is not an abstract question. Since the Christmas Eve taxpayer massacre when Treasury removed all government caps on aid to Fannie/Freddie means that Uncle Sam is on the hook for unknown amounts. Given the GSE’s hold $5.5 trillion dollars in mortgages, the potential losses are $100s of billions, if not trillions of dollars. .....

And what are those estimated losses Goodman projected for the GSEs ?

Freddie will likely lose around $178 billion of its $1.86 trillion credit guarantee book, and Fannie will likely lose $270 billion of its $2.81 trillion book. Combine the credit guarantee books of the two firms, and you reach a $4.67 trillion book, with estimated losses at just under ~10%, or $448 billion.

Goodman notes that “overall losses on loans in the Fannie and Freddie credit guarantee books will be ~9.6%, very close to that for the 1983-84 origination in the 4 most severely hit states during the oil bust in the 1980s.”

Ever since the US government took over the GSEs in September 2008 under Bush/Paulson, and the expansion of that policy under Obama/Geithner, the Government has injected ~$112 billion into these two entities. If Goodman is correct — and her guess is about as good as anyone’s — the budget deficit is about to get $336 billion larger.

To put that into context, from September 5, 2008 forward (the day the the GSEs were put into conservatorship) the U.S. Government is likely to spend more money bailing out Fannie/Freddie than they have on the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars — combined.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/gse-losses-448-billion/

[Demeter]

17. It's Only Money

[tclambert]

53. Okay, okay, I won't invest in Fannie Mae again.

Wow, everything I've read about Fannie and Freddie suggests my analysis was completely wrong. Still, I got lucky and made a little money on a speculative bubble. Now that the share price is back in the $1 range, I was thinking of getting back in, but several articles calling them essentially worthless have cooled my enthusiasm.

[Festivito]

22. Debt: 01/12/2010 12,291,168,534,193.72 (UP 5,684,188,406.40) (Tue)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,781,352,915,790.80 + 4,509,815,618,402.92
UP 163,748,521.92 + UP 5,520,439,884.48

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,452,638 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,847.83.
A family of three owes $119,543.49. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 9,974,245,317.21.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,981,971,722.05.
The average for the last 32 days would be 6,545,598,489.42.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 70 reports in 104 days of FY2010 averaging 5.45B$ per report, 3.67B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,104 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 19.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/12/2010 12,291,168,534,193.72 BHO (UP 1,664,291,485,280.64 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,381,339,530,682.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,338,355,083,643.56 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********
01/06/2010 +000,123,816,367.19 ------------********
01/07/2010 -022,790,950,811.50 -
01/08/2010 -000,177,723,158.27 ---
01/11/2010 -000,226,209,166.36 --- Mon
01/12/2010 +000,163,748,521.92 ------------********

47,768,503,042.53 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4222890&mesg_id=4222963

[Festivito]

60. Debt: 01/13/2010 12,282,274,011,672.19 (DOWN 8,894,522,521.53) (Wed)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,781,208,589,623.65 + 4,501,065,422,048.54
DOWN 144,326,167.15 + DOWN 8,750,196,354.38

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,461,278 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,817.88.
A family of three owes $119,453.64. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 9,116,574,051.81.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,685,487,637.99.
The average for the last 33 days would be 6,077,716,034.54.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 71 reports in 105 days of FY2010 averaging 5.25B$ per report, 3.55B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,103 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 19.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/13/2010 12,282,274,011,672.19 BHO (UP 1,655,396,962,759.11 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,372,445,008,160.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,294,689,790,271.87 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********
01/06/2010 +000,123,816,367.19 ------------********
01/07/2010 -022,790,950,811.50 -
01/08/2010 -000,177,723,158.27 ---
01/11/2010 -000,226,209,166.36 --- Mon
01/12/2010 +000,163,748,521.92 ------------********
01/13/2010 -000,144,326,167.15 ---

47,779,990,633.04 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4224521&mesg_id=4224621

[UpInArms]

31. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.935 Change +0.089 (+0.11%)

Daily Sound Bites 01.14

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-01-14-1205-Daily_Sound_Bites_01_14.html



...more...

Dollar Weighed by Building Risk Appetite, Tempered Rate Forecasts

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2010-01-14-0458-Dollar_Weighed_by_Building_Risk.html



The Economy and the Credit Market
While there is little momentum behind underlying risk appetite; the bearing on sentiment is enough to weigh on the market’s top funding currencies. Maintaining this market role for well over a year now, the US dollar is struggling to regain its footing as speculative interests retain their hold over the broader markets. Looking forward, the currency’s next prominent trend will no doubt follow the tack that investor sentiment defines. And, in this distinct correlation, the greenback is sidelined by the same dynamic that has anchored progress in equities, commodities and fixed income. Rousing a clear bearing and true conviction on sentiment (whether it be bullish or bearish) has proven a complicated task. The reflection period afforded by the year-end holiday has clearly awoken market participants to the reality that government support will eventually be rolled back and rates of return are still anemic. On the other hand, the ranks are hesitant to unwind their risky positions without a clear reason to do so. In these conditions the dollar will remain stuck. Yet, this does not mean the currency will lack volatility. In the background, the dollar can still move up and down the risk spectrum. To effectively shed its status as a funding currency, the greenback will have to find support from interest rate expectations. However, the outlook for rates over the next 12 months is a paltry 75 basis points and just today, the Fed’s Dudley suggested the “extended period” the group has upheld is likely longer than six months.



...more...

[AnneD]

41. Timely Advice.........

Donations for Haiti: How to Give Sensibly

As more images and details of devastation in Haiti make their way around the world, they are being greeted by many with shock, dismay — and for some, a desire to help.

For those who are seeking a way to contribute, already there are multiple options, including 800 numbers scrolling across the bottom of television newscasts. The Yele Haiti Foundation, which was founded by musician Wyclef Jean, has become a huge focus on Twitter and lets people donate by texting a specific number. And no less a figure than President Obama, who has promised U.S. support to Haiti, is encouraging Americans to help by donating money. But rather than giving on impulse, it’s important to maximize the impact of your contribution, especially with so many groups vying for your dollars amid the chaos, experts say.

“Con artists will strike when emotion is high and the news is new,” says Bennett Weiner, the chief operating officer for the Better Business Bureaus’ Wise Giving Alliance, which reviews charitable groups.

In the case of Haiti, there are some significant challenges to any relief efforts. Much of the country’s infrastructure remains damaged by four severe floods that struck the country in 2008. “The money that came in was spent as wisely as it could on medical supplies and some infrastructure repair, slapping up makeshift buildings to put patients in,” says Amy Wilentz, a noted commentator on the nation and the author of “The Rainy Season: Haiti Since Duvalier.” “The bigger thing is rebuilding, and that’s a matter for foreign aid rather than from people like you and me.”

After the 2008 floods, CHF International, which offers aid to low-income communities, was able to provide assistance in Haiti within two to three days. But those floods were more localized, says David Humphries, a spokesman for CHF. “It will take longer to get aid following the earthquake, which left more widespread devastation.” He estimates aid this time around may be delayed by as many as three to four days.

more......

http://www.smartmoney.com/spending/budgeting/smart-giving-for-haiti-earthquake-aid/?cid=1230


you work hard for your money.....get the most bang for the buck.....

[Doctor_J]

42. Good toon, except the limo should be a bullet train

which we'll never have.

[DemReadingDU]

48. Jon Stewart: Clusterf#@k to the Poor House

1/12/10 Jon Stewart: Clusterf#@k to the Poor House - Wall Street Bonuses

Companies that American taxpayers had to bail out with billions of dollars use that money to reward their employees with bonuses.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-january-12-2010/clusterf--k-to-the-poor-house---wall-street-bonuses

appx 5 minutes


edit to add link for full show, appx 22 minutes
http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/tue-january-12-2010-paul-ingrassia

[Tansy_Gold]

54. Quite OT but because I know we have so many dog people here

posted by Kadie in GD

Search and Rescue Dogs from around the world head to Haiti - pics

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=7459087

It's on the front page, too, but if you're like me you don't often leave the inner sanctum once you've entered.

Warning: Have at least three hankies or a full box of tissue on hand.

[Robbien]

58. (AIG lookalike) Ambac May Owe $1.2 Billion After Las Vegas Monorail Bankruptcy

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Assurance Corp., the New-York based bond insurer trading for less than $1 since mid-November, may owe as much as $1.2 billion because of yesterday’s bankruptcy filing by Las Vegas Monorail Co.

Ambac insured at least $451 million in tax-exempt bonds issued in 2000 by the Nevada Department of Business and Industry when Las Vegas Monorail bought the line. Should Las Vegas Monorail fail to make another payment on those bonds, Ambac would be required to cover the losses, the company said in papers filed yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Las Vegas.

“Ambac estimates that its total exposure under the policy and surety will be approximately $1.163 billion,” the company said in court papers. That amount includes principal and interest exposure claims already paid, the company said.

. . .

The monorail is a Nevada nonprofit public benefit corporation created to finance and operate the 3.9-mile-long driverless transportation system that runs from near the Las Vegas Strip to the convention center. Although the monorail’s revenue covers operating expenses, it has never been sufficient to service debt

The monorail said in its bankruptcy petition that its assets were worth $10 million to $50 million and it had debt of $500 million to $1 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aw8eFoSPbYuE


Taxpayers, get ready to get out your checkbooks.

[Dr.Phool]

59. If they just say that John Ensign was screwing them,

His daddy can write them a check. He benefits from the thing, anyway.

[Ghost Dog]

61. Soundtrack:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zw0RAd77jsU&feature=channel

Uh huh.

[Tansy_Gold]

62. Uh huh.

Damn, man, you find the BEST stuff!