PPP: Brown Up 5 (Over Dem Coakley in Mass. Senate Race)

[No Elephants]

Source: Politico

BEN SMITH

January 17, 2010
Categories: Polls
PPP: Brown up 5

Public Policy Polling's final survey finds Scott Brown up 51% to 46%, a result that's within the margin for error of the poll but which mirrors most other recent polls in giving the Republican a lead in the race.

The quick summary:

Over the last week Brown has continued his dominance with independents and increased his ability to win over Obama voters as Coakley's favorability numbers have declined into negative territory. At the same time Democratic leaning voters have started to take more interest in the election, a trend that if it continues in the final 36 hours of the campaign could put her over the finish line.
Striking numbers:

-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.

-Those planning to turn out continue to be skeptical of the Democratic health care plan, saying they oppose it by a 48/40 margin.

Posted by Ben Smith 11:20 PM



Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0110/PPP_Brown_up_5.html

---

Still trending up. A CNN poll is much the same. Reportedly, Coakley's latest internal poll also gives Brown a 5 point lead.

Turnout issues:

Special election, January in Massachusetts (snowing today) election follows three day weekend, Massachusetts Democrats can usually relax, and some are dispirited.

On the other hand, Obama and Coakley drew 5,000 yesterday to Brown's 1500 -- and many at the Brown rally had come from out of state.

P.S. Coakley just said "get out the vote" will give her the election.

IMO, a Coakley loss will result in the Senate health care bill being adopted by the House with zero changes--and who knows what will happen to the upcoming jobs bill?

Plus, Scott Brown wants rape victims denied emergency contraception. Then, he wants them to pay for their own rape kits. And he lies through his teeth.

Please pray to whatever or whomever you believe in, even if it's a pleasant smile. And, if you live in Massachusetts, get to the polls tomorrow. Please do NOT send the false message that even Massachusetts wants the country to go further right.

P.S. Please note: This is not a Politico poll!

[chelsea0011]

1. I'm surprised Coakley is getting any % of the McCain vote. That's why

polls in Mass need to be taken with a grain of salt.

[No Elephants]

5. McCain Palin got some of the "disappointed about Hillary" vote, which may come back for a woman

like Coakley.

And, as a long time prosecutor and AG, Coakley can come across as a law and order candidate.

Besides, all the polls in the past week show Scott ahead. That does not necessarily mean he will win. It does mean no one can take tomorrow for granted.

[saigon68]

67. Time tonight will tell.

Nice way to keep it going Rahm. You should have won this race by 20 points.


amazing how the Re-Hab of this Creature has been performed with you with your hand in the front of your pants.

[dkf]

2. If we pass the Senate bill using the old vote, isn't that kind of a

slap in the face to MA voters? Coakley is saying she's the 60th vote. Then after the elections, we say it was already a done deal?

Sounds ugly.

[No Elephants]

4. I think you may be being too literal.

[FBaggins]

8. Only if you accept that the MA vote is a referendum on HCR

AND that people in MA who disagree with it are uniformly on one side of the issue.

It may end up being spun that way, but it's unlikely to be true.

[FreakinDJ]

3. This is not good any way you slice it

"Ignorance is Bliss" should be the message coming out of this.

Once again the DEMs have engaged in the RATpubliCONs negativity and well suffer the consequences. Obama was elected because he ACKNOWLEDGED the problems brought on by 8 years of RATpubliCON policy making and gave voters a message of hope.

When the DEMs FAILED to sever their corporatist ties in the HCR bill, Wall St. Re-Regulation, and Banking Regulation they disenfranchised the DEM faithful.

So where is the Hope....

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[next left2]

68. I agree - We are f_cked

Obama and the dems (us) blew it. 1) Failure to crucify
corporate fat cats post-financial meltdown; 2) Failure to keep
election promises to get us out of unlawful war; 3)
Overplaying healthcare.

4) FAILURE TO SEIZE THE NATIONAL RAGE.

These are the things that will take us down. UNLESS we get
back on track. Our party should run by people smarter than I
am. I'm not that smart. 

Where are our leaders?

.
.

[wordpix]

69. +1 and Dems need to get over the "we'll be quiet" and win approach

That doesn't work when the electorate is upset. People want leaders and if you're not leading, they'll vote for the other guy.

[kitfalbo]

6. Meh.

If the Dems can't win Teddy's seat they are screwed.

[pattmarty]

14. Yep. A lot here are missing the point, talking about HC and 60 votes........

........and such. The big story here is in Mass, a seat held by a liberal Dem for 30+ yrs and it may be won by a CONSERVATIVE republican. THAT'S THE REAL STORY.

[fedupinBushcountry]

9. Read the questions

in the poll, I mean they have a question about ACORN and if they would try to steal the election for Coakley. I smell a skunk and Politico and the rest of the media are spreading this junk.

Do you think that ACORN will try to steal the
election for Martha Coakley? If yes, press 1. If
no, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Yes ................................................................. 25%
No................................................................... 38%
Not Sure.......................................................... 37%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_117468963846.pdf

[gtar100]

13. This is why I hate politics.

It's disingenuous. I'm mean, what a stupid question. It's only meant to manipulate and confuse people. And that, in real life, is wrong.

[nvme]

10. HCR Plain and simple

The Senate DINO's are costing us too much. Independents are not thrilled with our handling of HCR, the bailouts, the wars, the deficit, and human rights. This is a referendum on the current administration make no mistake. The leadership we have been providing has been wanting, Ask the Unions. Do you think they like the idea of Union Caddilac tax? I desperately hope that the GOTV efforts will pull through and we will squeek by on this election. It would be a stunning blow to the sitting senators. The Repubs are firing squarely across the bow. Will they heed the warning? My best guess is they will not. wednesday morning will be full of DLC spin about this not being that important(if we lose).

[Iowa]

23. Yep...

A Republican of the worst kind is close to winning Ted Kennedy's seat, and only one year into Obama's hope & change presidency. It can only be described as a disaster. This is what happens when Democrats pursue a corporate, anti-civil-liberties agenda after promising the opposite. Obama and Congressional leaders will get their 30 pieces of silver, we'll get more Republicans, and the country will continue to implode.

[FBaggins]

11. And this time, PPP is on the low end

PPP was the first polling firm to show a Brown lead. I assumed (at the time) that they were playing a bit with the figures so that Democrats in MA would be frightened into showing up on Tuesday. That the race was merely closer than we were comfortable with. Now I wish that were the case.

Three other polls out this weekend (2 Rs and one other) show a 10-15 point Brown lead.

It's also almost universal in these polls that those saying they will vote for Brown has more energy about it.

[SnakeEyes]

18. 10-15?

What polls were those? Link?

[FBaggins]

22. Here you go

CrossTarget (R) (and not just "R", but commissioned by PajamasMedia) - 52-42 Brown

InsideMedford/MRG 51-41 Brown (http://insidemedford.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/ma-senate-poll-results.pdf)

The third one turns out to just be a different set of days for that same PajamasMedia poll... and actually showed Brown up by 15. So I suppose that's "good" news.

[icee]

29. Hot Air as of 6:00 PM yesterday had Brown up by 9.6%. I don't

know Hot Air's political affiliation. Funny name for a polling site, imo.

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/01/17/poll-brown-up-9-6/

[FBaggins]

31. That's the same poll I cited above.

They just rounded 9.6% to a ten point lead.

[icee]

34. Sorry, FBaggins. I didn't know...........

[FBaggins]

35. Oh... I didn't mean it as a slam

I didn't know until I dug into the poll.

[BigD_95]

12. I want Coakley to win like everyone else

but the Dem party did it to themselves. If I lived there it would take everything I had to even vote after the crap we have been given since Obama and Dems have taking over.

Not sure if I will ever vote again besides for Obama one last time. And I will do that just because I know how pissed Republicans are that he is our President.


Think about it. The healthcare bill should have already been taking care of before this election. Geez

[RBInMaine]

15. It is NOT a problem with the "Dem Party." It is about Coakley's campaign mistakes, a recession, and

a lot of Indy voter anger with too much in Mass. STATE government. I hope she wins, but if she blows it, it was mainly HER fault and not the entire party's. She and her team took the race for granted. HUGE, HUGE mistake given voter anger during a recession, a special election cycle, and when there is anger with the current STATE government, or at least much of it.

[Iowa]

24. That will probably be the spin they put on it, but few will believe it...

It's probably a combination of things, including the issues you describe, but there's no way that some of the blame for this close race shouldn't be laid at the feet of the war-mongering corporate agenda being pushed by Obama and Congress. If they were in the process of pushing through an updated version of FDR's New Deal, Coakley would have a wide lead and this thread wouldn't exist.

[No Elephants]

37. Obama's ratings in some of these same polls are about 55%.

He has slipped some here since election day, when he got about 63% of the Massachusetts vote, but not by enough to account for this debacle.

Coakley, a lackluster candidate, ran an unbelievably bad campaign. For instance, she won the primary December 8, the election is January 19---and she took two weeks off around Christmas. Over the objections of Democrats, I might add.

Meanwhile, Brown was running ads featuring a video of beloved favorite son JFK --Teddy's big brother, of course--and saying he (Brown) and JFK were on the same page. You would have thought from the ad that Brown was a Democrat. Also, Brown toured cities and towns and actually talked to people. And he misrepresents, and flat out lies, whenever convenient.

You would be amazed how few people, even Democrats, stay abreast of current political events the way that political message board posters do. That's why Republicans get away with their lies.

[Iowa]

47. Yep...

So many people are content to remain uneducated about political issues. The populace is ripe for fleecing and manipulation. A friend of mine told me about a guy he knows at work who said there was no way he would vote for John Kerry. Why? "...Because he's got a horse-face, and there's no way I'll vote for a guy with a horse-face." The guy was dead serious.

[Unvanguard]

43. So MA voters are voting Republican because they think Obama is too right-wing?

Is that your theory?

[Iowa]

45. In answer to your question, no...

...it is highly unlikely that anyone would actually go to the polls and "vote Republican" because Obama is too "right-wing". I suppose it's possible that some tragically misguided voter here or there might be so pissed-off that he/she will vote Republican out of spite, or in an effort to punish, but I suspect that would be so rare as to be inconsequential. I think most people would pretty much agree that goes without saying, but then you came along and demonstrated otherwise - so there you go.

Now that we've disposed of your specific question, do you need someone to explain to you how a close election might possibly be impacted by a demoralized base vs. an enthusiastic base, or do you already understand that? Based upon your original question it would appear you don't, but then I don't want to presume too much (look where that got us last time). Anyway, I'd be happy to help you if you need it. I stand at the ready to serve.

[Unvanguard]

58. That doesn't explain Coakley's massive drop in the polls from a few weeks ago.

The effect there is too long-term.

[Jefferson23]

16. I still maintain that Coakley nails a win in the end, but hard fought nonetheless.

[RBInMaine]

17. I hope so. GOTV GOTV GOTV. There will need to be VERY heavy loyal Dem turnout.

[BigD_95]

19. thats the problem

how many Dems feel like turning out after being sold a bill of goods that were never delivered.

[placton]

20. BigD - you are right

the results in NJ and VA guvs' races were the harbingers for this. We of a liberal bent have not been provided what were promised, during the 2008 campaign. I simply don't understand why selling out the base is seen as good politics. It may raise lotsa dollars from the fat cats, but in the end votes beat dollars every time.

[icee]

25. Exactly. That's how my relatives in Mass feel. They are voting

for Croakly, but are doing it mainly because they don't like Brown. Had the Repubes picked someone more viable than Brown I don't know what they would do. But like many have said here already, no matter how this vote turns out it's a disaster for Democrats and Obama. If the stock market starts crashing tomorrow morning may not go well for Democrats.

[No Elephants]

39. Croakly? WTF?

[Almost_there]

26. It's 1 year in! We're moving ahead.. Don't give up.

This is only 363 days that Obama has been at the healm, and I will agree that things have not been delivered as promised, and "change" hasn't always happened as I'd like to see. Washington is like a giant ship with a tiny little rudder, if you try and turn it too quickly, the damn thing will snap off and then you are lost at sea.. Better to try for baby steps, and small course corrections then to just sweep the table and get nothing done.

Coakley has made a bunch of mistakes and doesn't seem to come across as likeable.. Brown is really playing up the "regular guy" image which is horsecrap, but, people are always interested in someone who looks approachable.

It will be a tough fought race, maybe snow in the western part of the state will keep some of the tea partiers from grabbing their tea bags to vote...

[villager]

21. This news has bothered the phantom unreccers, evidently...

n/t

[icee]

27. Just read Boston Herald's comment on Coakley campaign...

"It wasn't the Titanic or the Hindenburg, it was the Hindenburg crashing into the Titantic." Wow.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view/20100118nothing_madisonian_in_this_martha_a_loser_and_a_sore_one_at_that/

[No Elephants]

40. No surprise, The Herald is like Fox.

My only surprise is why any DUer is acting like the Herald's unsupported opinion is meaningful in any way.

[icee]

41. I don't track all newspapers correlation with Fox News. Sorry. I

just see stuff and report it.

[No Elephants]

44. Maybe you should start tracking then. Before you get so "wowed" by a slam

against a Democrat, considering the source would be in order.

Indiscriminately being "wowed" by a slam against a Democrat does not say much about your Democratic cred.

[icee]

49. The degree of the slam was "wow-inspiring" enough, regardless

of the source and its political affiliations. Do me a favor and stay out of Pandora. The People have no use for demagogues who seem to find trouble with everyone who isn't cloned to their exact beliefs. The trouble with the Democrat Party is more you than me.

[No Elephants]

50. Why would slams of a Democrat by a RW rag wow anyone with a brain?

Sorry, but pointing out that the Herald is a RW rag and you should consider the source before you get impressed by something is Thingking 101. It has absolutely nothing to do with my wanting to clone my Democratic beliefs.

So, your petty personal comments reflect the same faulting reasoning that leads you to being impressed by a RW rag's slam of a Democrat.

Try again. And this time, if you can't manage thoughtful, at least try to be coherent.

[icee]

52. Right. I'm certain that circuitous explanation meant something to

you. It meant nothing to me. If I see a Martian spaceship land in my front yard I will be wowed by the event itelf, even it has an elephant painted on the hull. Some do not filter all outside events through political cheesecloth.

[joeglow3]

60. I think the issue is the dickheaded response

Why take the time to educate the individual when you can have your pompous ass sitting up on your high horse being a dick?

[AlphaCentauri]

28. I'm just impressed how Americans vote for image and not for ideal

looks like there are no more dreams to fulfill, all is left is to select the next administrator not a leader.

[icee]

30. Obama officials think Scott Brown will beat Coakley. Is this a ruse

or do you think they really think this? Or is this story false? Why would the White House release something like this?

http://americaswatchtower.com/2010/01/17/obama-officials-believe-scott-brown-will-win-in-massachusetts/

[No Elephants]

46. That is clearly a fifth rate RW blog. And even, at that, it crappier than most.

First, there is no proof anything was leaked, as opposed to having been made up from whole cloth.

Second, even a leak does not mean the administration released anything, ffs. Or, as you put it, the White House.

Criticism of something concrete is one thing, but this innuendo crap is crap, period.

Either you are really unthinking when it comes to slams against Democrats, or you assume that any bs will sway us. Either way, think again.

[Politicub]

32. GOTV! If you're in Mass, drive people to the polls if you have to

That's what we do here in Atlanta, even when things aren't so close.

What if Brown were to get just 800 more or so votes than Coakley? In the recent Atlanta mayoral runoff, the difference between the two candidates was just that -- about 800 votes.

800 votes could be a large neighborhood.

So GOTV!!!

[IndianaGreen]

33. Exactly, GOTV!

Hopefully, Kennedy, the Tea Bag Party candidate, will take enough votes from Brown to assure a Coakley victory. Nevertheless, the folks in MA have to do their part in getting people to the polls.

[icee]

36. Lastest Poll Info for many polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-1144.html

[lynne]

59. YIKES! n/t

[No Elephants]

38. I am a registered Democrat in Mass., but no call from Coakley today, day before election.

Not even a robo call.

The day before the primary, I got a call from a human being in Capuano headquarters, asking if I needed help to get to the polls. Capuano was the only one of the four Democratic primary candidates to do that. Coakley did not--and I am female, so she would have seen me as one of her likeliest supporters (though I was for Capuano).

Okay, she was a heavy favorite in the primary. But my phone should have been ringing off the hook today, making sure a registered Democratic female in Boston gets to the polls tomorrow. No call, though.

Though I always vote, it's usually been almost a formality. I've never really had to worry about Massachusetts in federal elections before. It's been a foregone conclusion that Massachusetts would go Kerry or Kennedy, whichever one was up for election, most or all Democratic Reps (all 10 current ones are Dems) and the Democratic Presidential candidate. (I think Reagan's second term was the only exception.)

My hope: Voters in the greater Boston area hear about these polls and turn out in droves. Most of the population of Massachusetts is concentrated in the Greater Boston area, which is even more Democratic than the rest of the state. And a lot less affected by snow than the more conservative western part of the state. If enough Democrats in the Greater Boston area turn out tomorrow, I think we can win.

[robo50]

61. There must be something wrong with your phone, I have

already received a dozen calls in the last week.

Of course, Martha isn't calling me herself, but you can't be serious about no calls, unless you specifically requested NOT to be called on some survey or at some time.

There were more calls in the primaries, for sure, but at least there are live people calling all over the state today.

[karadog]

42. People I work with

I have talked with several people that I work with and we all have the same health insurance. It is good insurance and probably considered a cadalac plan. They are afraid to vote for Coakley simply because they ...and myself can not afford to pay an extra 3-$500.00 a month for the new tax.. We don't make very high pay and that would keep me from buying a new car. I don't even know what to say when the subject comes up!

[No Elephants]

48. A tax on your cadillac plan? What does your plan cost your employer? If it costs under

less than $23,000 per person per year, there is no tax, even under the Senate bill. And, I believe, if anyone has to pay a tax, it would be your employer. And the tax would not be $300 to $500 a month, either.

Where are you and your co-workers getting your info?

[icee]

51. Be careful. Whatever is best for you and your family is the most

important thing. I am in the same boat as you with respect to the Cadillac Plan. I'll not pay an additional tax and have to take a second job because of some half-baked healthcare plan. Many of us feel the same way. Don't be intimidated by the relatively few here whose job it is to intimidate.

[No Elephants]

53. Before anyone can decide what is best for them, they need the correct info.

The poster got bad info from somewhere. Apparently, so did you, or you would not be going on about a second job to pay a tax on your employer-provided health insurance.

I gave the poster some facts on the points the poster raised. Most people don't get intimidated by facts, though I can see why they might throw you for a loop. I have no reason to try to intimidate anyone about health care. I don't like the Senate bill; I don't sell insurance and the poster already has employer-provided insurance anyway.

No one's job here is to intimidate. Good luck with your bad info, inability to analyze and paranoia, though. That combo should take you far. In the wrong direction, of course, but you probably won't know the difference anyway, so it's all good.

[icee]

54. Baloney. I know the parameters. I also know that unions have been

exempted from the Plan tax although not non-union, a real unusual course for those who ostensibly understand Democracy. But I'm certain you have another keen explanation for this too.

[No Elephants]

55. You know what parameters? And you're being incoherent again..

If your post made any sense--or asked a question--I probably would have an answer. As it is, though, I would need a crystal ball to figure out what you think you're saying.

[icee]

57. You just posted the wrong amount to the other poster for the Cadillac

plan. Now hurry and edit it.

[icee]

56. Also, the Cadillac Plan Tax affects those whose plans cost

the employer $8,500 per person and $23,000 per family. These benefits include medical, dental, vision, etc. A deal has been reached to exempt union workers from any tax on the employer resulting in a cost pass-through to the employee. I'm not certain this is constitutional, but that's where it stands now.

[karadog]

65. the fact about the healthcare plan is this

If my employer is taxed 40% more for the insurance...they will either stop carrying it or pass the cost on to us. Healthcare reform was intended to bring down the cost of insurance, not make it unaffordable!

[icee]

66. Right. Obamacare is a disaster.

[Doctor_J]

63. So they think adopting Boner's Health Care non-plan will help?

there's dumb, there's real dumb, and then there's Fox News dumb

[wordpix]

70. who says your plan will go up $500/mo. Repukes?

[Ian David]

62. Here's what we can all do RIGHT NOW

Make at least five calls from your own home for Martha Coakley, RIGHT NOW: http://www.my.barackobama.com/coakleyn2n

The website will supply you with the names and phone numbers of people in Massachusetts that need to be called today.

Or

Donate to Martha Coakley for U.S. Senate RIGHT NOW: https://coakley.zissousecure.com/contribute/PFP/iandavidb
See also:

!!!!! NEW RULE !!!!!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7498975

[rocktivity]

64. "Brown is up 64-32 with independents

and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.

In other words, we may be looking at a replay of Jon Corzine losing in NJ due to Dems and independents who either voted Repub or stayed home. And our so-called Dem leadership have no one to blame but themselves.

:(
rocktivity

[wordpix]

71. Rachel Maddow: AP projects Brown the winner. grrrr

:puke: