STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 19

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 19, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 15, 2010

Dow... 10,609.65 -100.90 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq... 2,287.99 -28.75 (-1.24%)
S&P 500... 1,136.03 -12.43 (-1.08%)
Gold future... 1,131 -12.00 (-1.05%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.68 -0.06 (-1.63%)
30-Year Bond 4.58 -0.05 (-0.97%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation by Tim W. Wood

"I do see change on the horizon for 2010. From a Dow theory perspective..."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

28. Quoting Wood:

...Given that history shows the bear markets average some one-third the duration of the preceding bull market, if the top occurred in 2000, then one-third of that 26 year period would be 9 years in round numbers, which would obviously suggest a bear market bottom in 2009. However, I do not believe this is what happened. It simply does not fit the profile and I have covered this in greater detail in recent research letters for subscribers. I believe that the secular bull market tried to top in 2000. I also believe that the decline into the 2002 low initially began as the Phase I decline. But, because of the efforts by the FED, I believe they were able to resurrect the bull market and that it was stretched into the 2007 top.

Additionally, from a Dow theory perspective, all secular bear markets have ended with stocks at great values. That value is representative of the dividend yield being roughly equal to the P.E. ratio. Yes, it is a fact that at true secular bear markets the dividend yield and the price earnings ratios will be roughly equal. As an example, in 1932 the yield on the S&P 500 was 10.50% and the P.E. was just under 10. In 1942 the yield was 8.71% and the P.E. was 7.3. At the 1974 bottom the yield was 5.9% and the P.E. was 7.24. In 1982 the yield was 6.2% with a P.E. of 6.9. At the March 2009 low the P.E. was 23.77 with a dividend yield of 3.58. At the October 2002 low the P.E. was 29.95 and the yield was 1.98. As you can see, neither the 2002 low nor the 2007 low represented the great values that have been seen at previous secular bear market bottoms.

Based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, which is how the values at the historical lows mentioned above were calculated, we have not seen a secular bear market that is representative of value. George Schaefer, the great Dow theorist of the 1950’s and 1960’s wrote that at the beginning of primary bull markets, which of course comes at the end of primary bear markets, dividend yields will be in the 6 to 8 percent range. Anyway, when we compare apples to apples by using the same calculations as have always been used we find that there is a great disparity between the yield and the P.E. When we combine this with the phasing aspects of Dow theory, it is fairly obvious that we have not begun a “new” bull market and that the rally out of the March low is likely an important rally that will separate the next phase of the bear market.

2010 should be a transitional year. I have gone back to 1896 and have identified a common “DNA marker” that has occurred at every major top in stock market history. Therefore, based on this historical precedence I should be able to properly identify this bear market top once the cyclical aspects that have culminated to create this DNA marker appear. These developments have been and will continue to be covered in my research letters. I can tell you here that you should not believe the talking heads on TV as they did not see the problem coming in the first place. They did not warn you of the decline in 2001 or 2002, nor did they warn you of the top in housing in 2005 or the stock market top in 2007. If the potential cyclical developments that I see on the horizon materialize in 2010 then it will mean that the bear is back and I can assure you that the talking heads and politicians will not see it coming, nor will the vast majority of the public. You have been warned.

[Loge23]

29. Mr. Wood's advice

Mr. Wood cautions against the "continued waste of stimulus packages". Many economists note that the stimulus packages are the only thing holding up the economy right now. The Phase II bear market the Wood predicts is an almost certainty as soon as the stimulus packages are allowed to expire.
Granted, the stimulus packages were poorly designed owing to the lock-step objections of the minority party. But we should be talking about how to structure a continued stimulus based upon more socially connected employment, such as public works, infrastructure, and - dare I say - mass transit in the form of a high-speed national rail system for both freight and passengers.
Mr. Wood appears to have deviated a bit from the FS mantra in forgetting to advise us to buy more gold.

[Ghost Dog]

35. Ah, the LEAP 2020 team this month, looking this decade in the eye

and expecting global fiat currency meltdown, do indeed mention said element:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x510832#510910

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov
Briefing.com $23.8B
Consensus $27.5B
Prior $20.7B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Ghost Dog]

39. Monthly net TIC flows were $26.6 billion.

Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $126.8 billion.

* Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $129.3 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were $96.0 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were $33.3 billion.
* U.S. residents purchased a net $2.5 billion of long-term foreign securities.



Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been $114.5 billion.



Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities decreased $27.2 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills decreased $18.9 billion.



Banks' own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents decreased $60.7 billion.



Monthly net TIC flows were $26.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were $26.8 billion, and net foreign official flows were negative $0.3 billion.



Complete data are available on the Treasury website at www.treas.gov/tic.

/... http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/tg510.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $78 in Asia on bargain hunting

...
Benchmark crude for February delivery was up 2 cents to $78.02 a barrel at late afternoon Kuala Lumpur time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Monday, the contract fell to as low as $77.07 before settling at $78 in European trade. The U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King public holiday. ...

Banks will be in the spotlight especially after U.S. stocks fell 1 percent on Friday — the Dow Jones industrial average suffered its worst day of the year so far — as JP Morgan Chase & Co. offered a cautious earnings guidance even though it reported a fairly strong set of results.

In other Nymex trading in February contracts, heating oil fell 1.6 cent to $2.03 a gallon while gasoline was down 0.5 cent at $2.04 a gallon. Natural gas futures shed 10.1 cents to $5.59 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Kraft snares Cadbury for $19.6 billion

LONDON (Reuters) – Kraft Foods (KFT.N) agreed a recommended deal to buy Cadbury (CBRY.L) for around 11.9 billion pounds ($19.6 billion), creating the world's top confectioner after frantic last-minute talks broke an impasse over price.

Kraft's CEO Irene Rosenfeld had to inject more cash into her bid and drop the number of new Kraft shares in the offer to win over Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr and mollify her top shareholder, billionaire investor Warren Buffett. ....

Buffett, who owns a near-10 percent stake in Kraft had warned Rosenfeld not to overpay and issue too many new Kraft shares.

Kraft said on Tuesday it was issuing 265 million new Kraft shares compared with its original plan to issue 370 million. ...

The deal would create the world's largest confectionery group ahead of privately owned Mars-Wrigley and bring under one roof Cadbury's Dairy Milk chocolate and Trident gum and Kraft's Milka, Toblerone and Terry's chocolate brands.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100119/bs_nm/us_cadbury_kraft

[ozymandius]

5. Japan Airlines files for $25 billion bankruptcy

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan Airlines Corp (9205.T) filed for bankruptcy protection on Tuesday owing more than $25 billion and vowed to slash 15,700 jobs and unprofitable routes as part of a plan to survive an industry beset by volatile fuel costs and fickle flyers. ...

Shareholders will be wiped out and lenders will forgive a larger-than-expected 730 billion yen in debt as part of the deal with the fund, the Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corp of Japan (ETIC).

Bankruptcy will only be the beginning for an airline with depleted capital, facing headwinds such as rising fuel prices and shrinking passenger numbers, on top of hefty restructuring costs.

JAL, which has been bailed out by the Japanese government three times in the past 10 years, will replace many of its older, larger and less fuel-efficient planes. It also faces tough decisions about foreign capital and alliances.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100119/bs_nm/us_jal

[ozymandius]

6. Stocks Fall in Europe, Asia on Earnings Concern; Gilts Decline

...
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.6 percent at 10:30 a.m. in London and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.4 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The yen advanced against all but one of the 16 most- traded currencies. Gilts tumbled after the U.K. inflation rate increased by the most on record.

Stocks on the MSCI World Index are trading near the highest level compared with earnings since 2002, raising concern valuations may have outpaced profit growth. A total of 65 companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to release quarterly results this week, starting with Citigroup Inc. today. ...

Losses in Asia were limited after Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index doubled its gain to 1 percent on a report in Caijing magazine that Shanghai, China’s financial hub, is considering allowing individuals to invest abroad. ...

Futures on the S&P 500 indicated the benchmark U.S. gauge may open little changed. U.S. markets were closed yesterday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Kraft shares slipped 0.8 percent in German trading. Citigroup, whose biggest shareholder is the U.S. government, jumped 2.3 percent to $3.50. The company will release fourth-quarter earnings at 8 a.m. in New York. International Business Machines Corp. will also report fourth- quarter earnings today after the market closes.

The biggest stock market rally since the Great Depression boosted the S&P 500’s price-earnings multiple to 25 last week from 10.1 in March, the lowest in a quarter-century, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXLNUDtx1e6I&pos=4

[ozymandius]

7. Banks pull another $1 billion from small business lending

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The nation's biggest banks cut their collective small business lending balance by another $1 billion in November, according to a Treasury report released late Friday. The drop marked the seventh straight month of declines.

The 22 banks that got the most help from the Treasury's bailout programs have cut their small business loan balances $12.5 billion since April, when the Treasury began requiring them to file monthly reports on the tally. The banks' total lending has fallen 4.6% in that seven-month period, to $256.8 billion. ...

Five of the 22 banks reported higher small business loan balances in November than they did in April. At others -- such as Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), by far the biggest small business lender -- the totals have fluctuated month to month.

But 10 of the 22 banks have cut their small business balances every single month since April. That list includes firms such as JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) that are now posting monster profits. In the past seven months, JPMorgan's small business loan balance has dropped by almost $962 million, or 3.7%.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/18/smallbusiness/small_business_lending_drop/index.htm

---

Obama has said, "we encourage banks to..." enough. Clearly - encouraging banks to perform their primary duty does not work.

[Dr.Phool]

10. Hey, it's bonus season.

There's no money left for loans.

[ozymandius]

12. Great first post!

Quite a thunderclap to launch your new blog, Dr. Phool. :toast: :yourock:

[Dr.Phool]

14. Thanks

I would have had some more up by now, but, me and the wife have both been laid up with bad colds or the flu all week-end. In fact, she's worse this morning.

Thank mari333 doe letting me use her excellent post as a starter.

[DemReadingDU]

25. That was an excellent read

Mari333 sums it up quite well, just kicked her thread for more to see it.

Hope you and the wife get to feeling better soon.

[Tansy_Gold]

27. Yes, excellent.

Sorry to hear you've got a bug. :hug:



Tansy Gold, recovering from a computer virus and ready to call McAfee for a refund

[DemReadingDU]

33. computer virus is bad too

Days go by getting the computer well, just like it takes days for a human to get well. Not a pleasant experience.

Over Christmas, spouse's computer become possessed. It started talking to him about football, and other tv ads. I had researched the Internets, and Malwarebytes was recommended for the exorcism. Then I went to the DU computer forum with my questions. The computer seems to be well again, thankfully.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=242x29217

[Ghost Dog]

36. Am I missing something,

having sig-lines, tag-lines or whatever they're called turned off here?

[Ghost Dog]

19. Yeah, these are hard times for the super-rich, we need more bonuses

to pay for such as our armoured yachts, all those security specialists and, stuff like, you know, designer clothes that make us look not too far above you peasants when we feel like slumming it for a night.

And the pesky servants are still more expensive than just operating the slave economy we're aiming for (learn more at Davos this year). And expensive women are an enormous drain, you know.

And, some even dare to threaten to make some of us pay so-called just taxes, don't you know. Sheesh, what's the world coming to?

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. That was one hellofa posting!

From the other end of I-95 Saaalute (albeit the cawn field is buried in snow)

:donut:

[ozymandius]

11. The demand and supply of bank credit: A small business snapshot from the Southeast

In his recent speech, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart highlighted concerns about the linkage between commercial real estate loan problems at banks and small business financing during the economic recovery:

"The overall commercial real estate debt in the financial system is smaller than residential, but it is disproportionately concentrated in small and regional banks. Smaller banks are a significant source of credit for small businesses, and in most recoveries we look to small businesses to generate a significant number of jobs."

President Lockhart also referenced the results of a survey of small business finances the Atlanta Fed conducted late last year.

"A recent small business survey performed by the Atlanta Fed suggested that business loan demand was down primarily because of weak sales and modest revenue prospects. The credit availability picture was mixed. No surprise, construction-related firms and manufacturers had the most trouble obtaining credit during the last six months. But others did well in having their credit needs met. Of more than 200 respondents, nearly half did not look for credit at all, mostly citing weak sales or sufficient cash reserves."

The survey President Lockhart was referencing was conducted in early December and included responses from 206 small businesses across the Sixth Federal Reserve District (the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee) regarding their access to credit. The intent of the survey was to include some additional small business perspectives to supplement our other monetary policy information-gathering efforts.

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/01/the-demand-and-supply-of-bank-credit-a-small-business-snapshot-from-the-southeast.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FRUQt+%28macroblog%29

---

This is something to bear in mind when economic conditions improve (and they will, eventually) and businesses need to borrow money to expand.

[fasttense]

23. As one smart small businessman once said: I don't need loans, I need customers.n/t

[FarCenter]

38. Part of the lower small business loan demand is less utilization of credit lines

Per latest Beige Book from the Fed.

Just like consumers are reducing their charge card balances, businesses are reducing their balances on lines of credit.

[Festivito]

8. Debt: 01/14/2010 12,258,545,028,915.24 (DOWN 23,728,982,756.95) (Thu)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. It makes the linear projection of Obama's first budget jump, then slowly go down day by day. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,756,103,310,941.48 + 4,502,441,717,973.76
DOWN 25,105,278,682.17 + UP 1,376,295,925.22

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,469,918 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,739.84.
A family of three owes $119,219.52. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 8,512,007,136.22.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,242,138,566.56.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,040,779,257.96.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 72 reports in 106 days of FY2010 averaging 4.84B$ per report, 3.29B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,102 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 18.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/14/2010 12,258,545,028,915.24 BHO (UP 1,631,667,980,002.16 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,348,716,025,403.50 ------------* * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,200,767,445,964.88 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********
01/06/2010 +000,123,816,367.19 ------------********
01/07/2010 -022,790,950,811.50 -
01/08/2010 -000,177,723,158.27 ---
01/11/2010 -000,226,209,166.36 --- Mon
01/12/2010 +000,163,748,521.92 ------------********
01/13/2010 -000,144,326,167.15 ---
01/14/2010 -025,105,278,682.17 -

20,056,132,977.09 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4226271&mesg_id=4226277

[Festivito]

46. Debt: 01/15/2010 12,319,326,469,724.43 (UP 60,781,440,809.19) (Fri)

(Big up. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,813,183,812,102.39 + 4,506,142,657,622.04
UP 57,080,501,160.91 + UP 3,700,939,648.28

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,478,558 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,935.76.
A family of three owes $119,807.29. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 8,379,814,224.06.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,145,197,097.65.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,946,964,933.21.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 73 reports in 107 days of FY2010 averaging 5.61B$ per report, 3.83B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,101 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 18.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/15/2010 12,319,326,469,724.43 BHO (UP 1,692,449,420,811.35 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,409,497,466,212.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,396,883,880,071.36 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********
01/06/2010 +000,123,816,367.19 ------------********
01/07/2010 -022,790,950,811.50 -
01/08/2010 -000,177,723,158.27 ---
01/11/2010 -000,226,209,166.36 --- Mon
01/12/2010 +000,163,748,521.92 ------------********
01/13/2010 -000,144,326,167.15 ---
01/14/2010 -025,105,278,682.17 -
01/15/2010 +057,080,501,160.91 ------------**********

76,677,038,130.99 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4231354&mesg_id=4231394

[ozymandius]

9. Illinois: "state of insolvency"

I found this at Calculated Risk:

While it appears unlikely or even impossible for a state to hide out from creditors in Bankruptcy Court, Illinois appears to meet classic definitions of insolvency: Its liabilities far exceed its assets, and it's not generating enough cash to pay its bills. ... "I would describe bankruptcy as the inability to pay one's bills," says Jim Nowlan, senior fellow at the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and Public Affairs. "We're close to de facto bankruptcy, if not de jure bankruptcy."
...
Despite a budget shortfall estimated to be as high as $5.7 billion, state officials haven't shown the political will to either raise taxes or cut spending sufficiently to close the gap.

Unpaid bills to suppliers are piling up. State employees, even legislators, are forced to pay their medical bills upfront because some doctors are tired of waiting to be paid by the state. The University of Illinois, owed $400 million, recently instituted furloughs, and there are fears it may not make payroll in March if the shortfall continues.

Without quick corrective action or a sharp economic upturn, Illinois is headed toward a governmental collapse. At some point, unpaid vendors will stop bidding on state contracts, investors will refuse to buy Illinois bonds and state employees will get paid in scrip, as California did last year.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/mag/article.pl?articleId=32910&seenIt=1

[Tansy_Gold]

22. Arizona isn't far behind

State parks will be closed, and there's a movement to increase the sales tax -- which will fall mostly on the poor, of course -- but mustn't touch high level incomes or anything that might inconvenience the rich.

:puke:



Tansy Gold, who ain't rich

[Po_d Mainiac]

32. Ayuh...We are riding in a similar leaky watercraft..n/t

[ozymandius]

13. More Hotels Opening in 2010

It's when I read something like this that my fingers impulsively type :wtf:

From Calculated Risk:

Here is a followup to my earlier post about more hotel rooms coming online amid the worst occupancy slump since the Great Depression ...

From Jane Levere at the NY Times:

Though it may seem counterintuitive at a time when many hotels around the country are having trouble filling their rooms, nearly 100 hotels are scheduled to open in major American cities this year.

New York will have the most new hotels, 46, according to Smith Travel Research, a hotel research company in Hendersonville, Tenn., followed by Houston with 30. New hotels are opening as well in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. That does not include new hotels opening in the suburbs of these cities.

So how can so many hotels be opening even though the economy and travel remain so slow?

The answer, according to Mark Lomanno, president of Smith Travel Research, is that “hotel building cycles rarely mesh just right with economic cycles.” Planning a new hotel can take two to four years and construction another one to four years. ...

...As these hotels are completed in 2010, lodging investment will fall to low levels for several years as happened in previous investment busts. And that means more construction job losses are coming.

I, ozymandius, will also add that this is the last hurrah for many years to come in terms of CRE development. I also expect to see a wave of delinquencies and foreclosures in five years due to the end-of-term balloon payments common with CRE.

[fasttense]

24. Oh, those impulsive fingers of yours, Ozy, keep them typing. n/t

[Loge23]

31. Miami??

Which is why I am getting 4 star rooms for $60 on Priceline!

[Demeter]

15. A Blog Devoted to "the mess that greenspan made"

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2010/01/mess-that-bernanke-is-making-worse.html

Bits and snatches:

On Bernanke: "In what clearly appears to be an attempt to work backwards from a conclusion (based on its contents, a better title for the speech would have been "Monetary Policy was NOT Responsible for the Housing Bubble"), the Fed chairman demonstrates an incredible lack of understanding about the financial and political world in which he lives and exhibits some disturbing character flaws that have not been on display before to this degree, namely, a dangerous reliance on economic models and a disingenuous use of the English language to sway public opinion...

...it is worth noting that, in a sign of how quickly things may be changing for the central bank chief, Google now finds more matches when the current Fed Chairman's name is combined with the word "failure" than when using the former Fed Chairman's name:

* Greenspan + failure = 1.06 million results
* Bernanke + failure = 1.44 million results

...this speech that has compelled me to seriously consider changing the text below the title of my humble little blog (as readers have been urging me to do for a few years now) from:

The Mess That Greenspan Made
HOW 18 YEARS OF EASY MONEY CHANGED THE WORLD

to

The Mess That Greenspan Made
AND THAT BEN BERNANKE IS MAKING EVEN WORSE"

[DemReadingDU]

26. and the mess that Bernanke is making worse

Not seen that blog before, and he's been writing almost 5 years. Another to add to my list, along with Dr.Phool's new blog.

[ozymandius]

16. Gotta run.

I hope you have an easy day, folks. :hi:

:donut: :donut: :donut:

[Dr.Phool]

17. Have a good day!

:hi:

[Demeter]

18. Today's cartoon is a Scream

but that's my usual response to economic issues, these days....

Happy Tuesday, everyone! I'm all energized by the Weekend bopping we did.

[DemReadingDU]

20. Love that toon too!

[AnneD]

34. Great job...

do do ron ron ron da do ron ron

[UpInArms]

21. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.517 Change +0.453 (+0.58%)

US Dollar Forecast Calls For Breakout – Timing is Anyone’s Guess

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2010-01-16-0004-US_Dollar_Forecast_Calls_For.html

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- US Dollar finishes week on strong note on flight-to-safety in financial markets
- Highly-anticipated Consumer Price Index data fails to move markets
- US Retail Sales likewise disappoint, leaving fundamental biases to the downside
- US Budget Deficit hits record – why hasn’t the Dollar fallen?

A fairly disappointing week of economic data helped push the US Dollar to fairly noteworthy lows against the Euro and other major currencies, but a late-week turnaround in financial market risk sentiment showed that forex traders were not prepared to push the Dollar substantively lower through the close. The combination of last week’s drop in Nonfarm Payrolls, lackluster Retail Sales data, and a record US Federal Budget Deficit should have all been enough to sink the recently-downtrodden greenback. Yet deficit fears were ameliorated by a successful US Treasury 30-year bond auction, and it seems that ballooning government shortfalls have not had a substantive effect on demand for US Treasuries.

The bounce in Treasury bond prices underlines the fact that investors still consider the US Dollar to be a premier safe-haven through times of financial market stress, and the late-week Dollar bounce only reinforced its position. Relatively light economic event risk means that the Dollar is likely to trade off of broader financial market risk flows, and it will be critical to monitor any sharp moves in the S&P 500 and other barometers of risk sentiment.

The US Dollar and many key asset classes have been stuck in choppy trading ranges, and the lack of sustained direction makes currency forecasts especially difficult. Indeed, our Senior Technical Strategist recently wrote that the Average True Range (ATR) of the Dow Jones Industrials Average stood at its lowest since 2007. Forex Options markets volatility expectations have likewise trended considerably lower, and we get the sense that markets will inevitably see sharp breakouts through the coming weeks of trade.

Despite signs of complacency across financial markets, recent market tumbles on the Dubai World default scare serves as clear reminder that any unexpected developments can force substantial market volatility. Of course it is nearly impossible to anticipate any such event, and there are countless stories of traders who have lost everything betting on the market turnaround. In fact, yours truly has been calling for a substantial market correction for quite some time now and has lost considerable credibility in the process. Timing the market is nearly impossible, but we believe it is prudent to protect oneself against the possibility of a sharp and fast market breakout.

For shorter-term traders, selling sharp Dollar rallies and buying equally sharp declines has been a fairly sound strategy as of late. Whether or not this continues into the week ahead will almost certainly depend on the trajectory in the S&P 500 and other indices. A major breakout in one market will almost certainly coincide with sympathetic moves across global financial markets.



...more...

Daily Sound Bites 01.19

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-01-19-1228-Daily_Sound_Bites_01_19.html



...more...

[Ghost Dog]

40. Euro Drops to Almost Four-Month Low as German Confidence Ebbs

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell for a fourth day against the dollar as Germany’s investor confidence declined this month more than economists forecast, fueling speculation the region’s economic recovery is stalling.

The dollar rose against most of its major counterparts as the outlook for Europe discouraged demand for higher-yielding assets. Sterling climbed to its highest level versus the euro since September as the U.K.’s inflation rate jumped in December by the most since records began in 1997.

...

The 16-nation euro slid 0.5 percent to $1.4306 at 9:50 a.m. in New York, from $1.4384 yesterday, and traded as low as $1.4263. Europe’s currency depreciated to $1.4218 on Dec. 22, its weakest level since Sept. 4. The euro decreased 0.5 percent to 129.99 yen, from 130.58. The yen dropped 0.2 percent to 90.95 per dollar, from 90.78.

The euro may extend its decline versus the dollar after falling below its 200-day moving average, according to Ronald Leven, a strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York.“The euro is testing very key technical levels,” Leven said. “We just broke the 200-day moving average, and if that holds into the close today, it’s going to encourage euro bears to be more aggressive.”

German Sentiment

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its German index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months ahead, fell this month to 47.2 from 50.4 in December in its fourth straight drop. Economists expected it would ease to 50, according to the median of 37 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

...

The People’s Bank of China guided its benchmark one-year bill yield to the highest level in 14 months as it sought to curb record loan growth and prevent bubbles in the nation’s property and stock markets.

The pound appreciated as much as 0.8 percent to 87.31 pence versus the euro, the strongest level since Sept. 11, on evidence of accelerating inflation.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ajcCqt29kjrA

[Ghost Dog]

41. ForexLive European Wrap: Crazy morning sees USD firm across the board

By Gerry Davies || January 19, 2010 at 12:25 GMT

* Japan ex-BOJ Hirano: Weak yen positive for Japan’s economy
* JAL files for bankruptcy protection
* Cadbury board recommends Kraft offer of 840p
* UK December CPI +0.6% m/m, +2.9% y/y, demonstrably stronger than median forecasts +0.3%, +2.6% respectively
* Premier Wen: China to deal with inflationary expectations this year. China must be prepared to deal with trade frictions. Pro-active fiscal policies to expand domestic demand
* ZEW institute January German economic sentiment index 47.2 vs 50.4 in December, worse than median forecast of 50.0
* Moody’s: Greece’s fiscal programme addresses short-term challenges. Greek stability plan is consistent wirth current A2 rating. Greek outlook remains negative due to uncertainty on implementation of govt plan

The pure volume of information the market had to digest this morning was immense. Everyman and his dog wanted to voice their opinion on a myriad of topics, and did.

Suffice it to say the rating agency’s have been busy making cautious remarks regarding deficits being run by likes of Greece, Spain, Portugal, UK and that has helped lift the USD.

/Read on... http://www.forexlive.com/78151/all/forexlive-european-wrap-crazy-morning-sees-usd-firm-across-the-board

---

[Ghost Dog]

37. U.S."Millennial" women believe they can have it all

NEW YORK (Reuters Life!) - Most young women believe they will achieve a balance between a rewarding career and a fulfilling personal life, despite the economic upheaval and a legacy of corporate culture that favors men, a survey shows.

The online survey of full-time working women between the ages of 22 and 35 years old revealed that they wanted a balance between their personal and professional lives and a job where they could make a difference.

Medical benefits were a crucial part of how they defined professional success, according to the survey commissioned by global management consulting and outsourcing firm Accenture,

Some 63 percent cited medical benefits as crucial to a professional success.

Accenture surveyed the 1,000 women because "we are always interested in attracting and retaining the best and the brightest," explained LaMae Allen deJongh...

... The U.S. Department of Labor reports that the median salary for women was 80 percent of men's. When comparing the median weekly earning of those aged 16 to 34, young women earned 91 percent of what young men did.

Almost 60 percent of the women surveyed reported being negatively impacted by the current economic downturn. And one-third were more concerned with keeping their jobs than achieving the work-personal life balance.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE60I2WU20100119?sp=true

(Edit to emphasize the all-nu Thomson Reuters section in which this data finds itself posted).

[Ghost Dog]

43. (I would like to see data on the geographical/social distribution

of this sample, mind you).

[Demeter]

42. kickety

[Demeter]

44. Most Important Board meeting of My lIfe to Date Tonight

wish me luck.

[Ghost Dog]

47. Give them (diplomatic) hell, Demeter.

(The rest is silence).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SGX1sRKYP4&feature=related

[Demeter]

45. Bernanke seeks government audit of Fed's AIG bailout

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100119/bs_nm/us_aig_fed



WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday asked a government auditor to conduct a full review of the central bank's actions in bailing out insurer AIG, seeking to quell a controversy that risks undermining the Fed's authority.

Bernanke said in a letter to the acting head of the Government Accountability Office that the Fed loaned billions to American International Group Inc. (AIG.N) in 2008 to "protect households and businesses from potentially calamitous effects" from an AIG failure. The Fed will make available all documents and personnel to aid a GAO review, he wrote.

The U.S. House of Representatives Oversight and Government Reform Committee is gearing up for a hearing next week into whether the New York Federal Reserve Bank improperly limited public disclosures about payments to banks to unwind $62.1 billion in AIG credit default swaps.

Republican Representative Darrel Issa has pushed aggressively for a probe and has called on the committee to call Bernanke as a witness.

Lingering public anger over the AIG bailout and bonuses paid to some AIG executives has fueled opposition to a second term for Bernanke as Fed chairman, although he is still widely expected to win needed Senate approval. A vote could come as early as Friday.

It also has provided ammunition to opponents of the Obama administration's financial reform plans, which would boost the Fed's role significantly as a regulator of important financial companies. Some lawmakers want to subject the Fed's monetary policy deliberations to congressional review.

Email traffic between AIG and New York Fed officials and lawyers released by Issa in recent weeks has shown that the New York Fed was reluctant to disclose specific details of AIG payments to banks after the taxpayer funded bailout, which has grown to over $180 billion.

Key details of the payments remain sealed under a Securities and Exchange Commission order.

The emails have raised questions about the role played by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who headed the New York Fed at the time.

Geithner was recused from AIG decisions after he was nominated to run Treasury on November 24, 2008. But he, Bernanke and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are considered key architects of the bailouts of AIG.

The committee has asked Geithner and Paulson to testify at the January 27 hearing.

Bernanke told GAO the Fed extended a credit facility to AIG "to prevent the imminent disorderly failure of the company, an event that would likely have led to a significant intensification of an already severe financial crisis and a further worsening of global economic conditions."

Bernanke added that the Fed loan facility was fully secured and should be fully repaid by September 16, 2013, five years after it was granted, as the company reorganizes and unwinds its operations.

A spokesman for GAO said the agency would have to review the request for an audit


....EXPECTING DENIAL OF REQUEST IN 5...4...3....2..

[UpInArms]

48. so why is the SEC letting themselves be played as the patsy on this?

after their failures with Madoff, et al?

Key details of the payments remain sealed under a Securities and Exchange Commission order.