STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 16 March (#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday March 16, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 313
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 95 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 148 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 359
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 843
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 15, 2004

Dow... 10,102.89 -137.19 (-1.34%)
Nasdaq... 1,939.20 -45.53 (-2.29%)
S&P 500... 1,104.49 -16.08 (-1.43%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.77% +0.01 (+0.21%)
Gold future... 399.60 +4.20 (+1.06%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Maeve]

1. Snow Day!!!!!

Happy Tuesday, y'all! Central Ohio is blanketed with white, which will probably interfere with the wearing o' the green tomorrow. Of course, that is almost secondary now that they are hunting the Highway Shooter. No pickup truck (he drives a Geo), but a youngish (28) white paranoid schizophrenic gun nut.

Housing starts and building permits on the calendar today--looking for figures in the 1930-50K range for both.

[54anickel]

4. Good Morning Maeve! Good to see you.

To bad about the snow, how much did you get?

Hope it doesn't interfere with the wearing of the green, green would be beautiful against a background of sparklie white!

Didn't I read somewhere where they have the name of the sniper? Hopefully he's too busy hiding to start shooting again. Hope they catch him soon.

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning Maeve and everyone!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Glad to see you here! What a relief that they have a handle on the shooter. And he's a gun nut? What a surprise!

Ozy

[UpInArms]

12. U.S. Feb. housing starts off 4% to 1.855 million

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38062.3556134259-812988367&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Construction of new U.S. houses slowed about 4 percent in February to 1.86 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. It's the slowest pace of building since August. Economists were looking for starts to accelerate slightly to about 1.91 million in February, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. January's starts were revised higher to 1.93 million from the previous estimate of 1.90 million. Starts of single-family homes fell about 4 percent to 1.49 million in February, the slowest since May. Building permits, considered a leading economic indicator, fell about 1.5 percent to 1.90 million annual units.

Ouch!

[ozymandius]

16. Ouch! is right. They are blaming this on the weather.

Bad Weather Pulls Down Housing Projects

WASHINGTON - The number of housing projects commenced by builders declined for the second straight month in February as bad weather in some parts of the country forced construction delays.

<cut>
Although economists were forecasting a rise in residential construction in February, the level of housing projects in January turned out to be higher — a rate of 1.93 million units started — than first thought, according to revised figures. That made for a smaller decline in activity than reported a month ago.

Even with the declines, both January and February's levels of activity were still considered healthy.

story

[Frodo]

18. Right. The economists didn't know about the weather.

They sit around and say "well, I guess they'll start three homes this past month.... wish I knew what the weather was."<p>

I'm sure the forecasts took into account those factors that were generally available on CNN.

[54anickel]

22. Funny, how that article mentions the increases took place in the

regions that normally have the hardest winter weather. Maybe they just whimp out easier in the South and West when it gets a bit chillier than normal.

Tuesday's report showed that residential construction rose in the Northeast and the Midwest in February, but fell in the South and the West.

Housing starts in the Northeast increased by a whopping 25.3 percent in February from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 188,000. In the Midwest, residential projects increased by 7.1 percent to a pace of 349,000. But in the South, housing starts dropped by 10.6 percent to a rate of 839,000 and in the West, residential construction fell by 7.5 percent to a pace of 479,000.

[KoKo]

83. Kick for all that "good stuff" here.

:-)'s

[dbt]

2. More blood today?

Crystal balls, magic mirrors and/or Magic 8-Balls telling y'all anything yet, Marketeers?

BTW, when I show up two days in a row, it's only because things have apparently gotten bad enough to instill fear VERY far down the Food Chain!

:evilgrin:
dbt

[54anickel]

5. Morning dbt! No crystal ball here, but the futures are looking bright

this morning. I think the bargain hunting day traders may be about looking for those blue light specials again.

They were quite active and chatty last week before the Madrid bombing. I remember posting a couple of articles where they were sharing the game plan.

[ozymandius]

8. Good morning dbt. I agree with 54anickel.

Futures look steady. I just scanned the econ news pages for an answer to your question. There seems to be a dearth of news factoring one way or another at the moment. More will surface very soon. Like 54anickel says, the futures charts seem to be holding steady on an upswing.

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

Confused Financial Seas

What becomes apparent from viewing the financial markets and the economy is things aren’t playing out as usual. Commodity and gold prices are rising, while bond yields remain suppressed. Stock prices rose far more sharply than they should have given current valuations. Bond prices remained far below the norm given the size of America’s twin deficits. The U.S. twin deficits at 5% of GDP are now at levels where currency crises begin. With global economic growth slowing down its pace, it appears that there are very few economic engines outside the U.S. and China that are large enough to drive world economic growth. Outside the U.S. there is still a dearth in spending around the globe. European economic growth has been feeble. Asia and parts of Latin America seem to be the only areas that are doing well economically. With U.S. consumers still maintaining a brisk pace of spending, the U.S. trade deficit will get even larger in the months ahead. This will bring more pressure on the dollar notwithstanding Japanese intervention.

<cut>

Central banks around the globe from the U.S. to Europe and especially Asia are printing money as never seen before. This tidal wave of money is what is driving up asset prices. There is simply too much money chasing too few good investment opportunities. This explains why we have seen prices rise in all asset classes from paper assets to tangibles such as commodities. However, these trends where all ships rise at the same time will not continue forever. At some point--maybe as soon as this summer--a major paradigm shift will begin in the financial markets. By then the bond market will wake up to the fact that monetary inflation is global and begin to demand higher compensation in the form of higher interest rates. With monetary reflation running globally, we should also begin to see the price of gold rise against other currencies. Up until now gold has risen mainly in U.S. dollars.

Upheaval Looms Ahead

As asset trends begin to decouple, volatility will begin to rise substantially in all asset classes as the ocean of central bank liquidity moves in and out of asset classes and sectors on a moment's notice. The financial markets, especially stocks and bonds, will become increasingly vulnerable to sudden mood changes rising and falling on the latest economic news. As the U.S. presidential election season kicks into high gear, politics will also play a growing role in the financial markets as investors try to position themselves on the wining side. Current thinking on Wall Street is evenly divided. The Street thinks Bush’s reelection would be good for stocks, while the election of John Kerry would be good for bonds. Kerry would raise income taxes substantially. The Street believes this would alleviate the deficit problems. However, Kerry claims he would raise taxes only on the rich (anyone making over $200,000 a year). However, there aren’t enough rich people in this country to close a $500 billion budget deficit much less than pay for nearly $200 billion in additional social spending. Deficits will rise no matter which candidate gets elected.

Today’s Market

If you were looking for a reason to sell today, you might blame it on terrorism. Last week's Madrid bombings raised investor concerns that more terrorist attacks were in the world’s future. Perhaps the next attack would be on U.S. soil again? Whatever the reason, investors were in the mood to sell on Monday. Selling volume picked up over last Friday. Investors sold off shares of airlines since they would be the first impacted by a renewal of terrorist attacks. The Bloomberg Travel Index, which tracks 36 airlines and hotels, fell 3.6 %. The Index has lost 5% since the bombings last week.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

24. But Greenspin's not overly concerned about all of this debt, why

should we be? :eyes:

This was posted in LBN, here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x424669

Direct link to article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/16/business/16FED.html?hp

WASHINGTON, March 15 — Consumer debt is hitting record levels. The federal budget deficit is yawning ever larger. The trade gap? Don't even ask.

Many mainstream economists are worried about these trends, but Alan Greenspan, arguably the most powerful and influential economist in the land, is not as concerned.

In speeches and testimony, Mr. Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, is piecing together a theory about debt that departs from traditional views and even from fears he has himself expressed in the past.

In the 1990's, Mr. Greenspan implored President Bill Clinton to lower the budget deficit and tacitly condoned tax increases in doing so. Today, with the deficit heading toward a record of $500 billion, he warns more emphatically about the risks of raising taxes than about shortfalls over the next few years.

snip>
Mr. Greenspan's thesis, which is not accepted by all traditional economists, is that increases in personal wealth and the growing sophistication of financial markets have allowed Americans — individually and as a nation — to borrow much more today than might have seemed manageable 20 years ago.

snip>
"The day of reckoning is not now, but maybe five years from now," said James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. "To go down Greenspan's route is like saying there is a free lunch. The fallacy is that net worth has gone up because debt went up. And that doesn't give me a good feeling."

snip>
But he has also suggested that the country may be able to borrow more because investors have become far less wedded to their home countries. This declining "home bias," Mr. Greenspan said in a speech this month, "has enabled the United States to incur and finance a much larger current account deficit than would have been feasible in earlier decades."

Well, golly-gee willikers, wouldn't that work both ways?

more...

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.18 Change -0.63 (-0.71%)

related article:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4576428

Dollar Falls Almost 1 Percent Against Yen

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar fell almost one percent against the yen and over half a percent against the euro on Tuesday after an influential newspaper said Tokyo could end its policy of selling yen for dollars by the end of March.

A weaker than expected German economic sentiment survey took a back seat as the market focused on the article in the Nikkei Financial Daily and looked ahead to a Federal Reserve policy meeting later in the day.

The Nikkei report -- an English translation of which was available in Monday's New York session -- suggested Japan could walk away from large-scale foreign exchange intervention by the end of this month.

"The market had viewed Japan's intervention as an ongoing policy tool, not a temporary measure," said Shahab Jalioos, senior currency strategist at ABN AMRO.

"The report questions this understanding and has sent the dollar lower."

Japanese officials denied any change in currency policy and Tokyo dealers suspected authorities of intervening to buy dollars just above 110 yen, backing words with action. But the effect was short-lived and the dollar fell as low as 109.24 yen in the European midsession, down almost one percent on the day.

<snip>

Keen to shore up its export-led recovery, Japan has poured more than 10 trillion yen ($91.44 billion) onto the foreign exchange markets in the first two months of this year.

"The market showed a knee-jerk reaction. Obviously intervention on this scale can't go on indefinitely," said Mary Davis, global currency strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston.

...more...

The Fed meets today - so with Japan possibly changing its intervention policy - there will possibly be a lull today in the volatility as the market waits for any bit of news to react to.

I think Japan just hates being transparent so they are attempting to throw the currency markets off, but they will probably continue to intervene through the end of the month regardless of what is said right now.

Great to see you Maeve! :hi:

Have a Great Day all you Marketeers!

[ozymandius]

9. Tokyo could end its policy of selling yen for dollars by the end of March.

So this makes me wonder - will Japan's contract to manage some of Iran's oil fields yield enough economic security so that they do not have to intervene so much? Or, perhaps, has their currency intervention built enough momentum that they can allow the markets to cruise, more or less, as they will?

[UpInArms]

11. Good questions, Ozy

there does seem to be a bit of economic cooperation afoot in the Asian markets - I think (have nothing concrete) that they are attempting to work together to weather the storm that is about to engulf the US monetary system.

Will go searching for information and keep you posted.

[54anickel]

13. The Asean Bond Fund II was to help address this issue as well. I

posted an article or two a few weeks back.

[54anickel]

19. Not the article I was looking for, but touches on the same thing

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/geted.pl5?eo20040224a1.htm

Aside from a few indicators such as poverty levels that remain above precrisis levels (though they are coming down), East Asia's rebound from the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 is more or less complete. The capital-account crisis -- which was both a currency and banking crisis -- and Asia's increasing integration into the global financial market, with its inevitable surges and reversals of private capital, has led the region to initiate actions at national and regional levels to prevent a recurrence.

At the national level, structural reforms in the financial and corporate sectors have enhanced resilience, although much more remains to be done. At the regional level, there has been progress in initiating policy dialogue, sharing resources and developing bond markets.

One example is the ASEAN-plus-Three Economic Review and Policy Dialogue, under which staff of finance ministries and central banks of the 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan and South Korea, meet twice a year to review policies.

There is also the Chiang Mai Initiative of bilateral swaps and the ASEAN-plus-Three Asian bond market initiative, in which for the first time actions are being taken at a regional level. Like cooperative efforts in Europe, these efforts are designed to complement rather than compete with ongoing global efforts.

more...

[54anickel]

21. One more article, still not the one I was looking for...

http://www.iht.com/articles/129946.html

BANGKOK Thailand plans to invest as much as $1 billion this year in an Asian bond fund that will buy debt securities denominated in the region's currencies, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said in an interview.
.
The figure equals India's commitment to the fund, which is designed to encourage Asian countries to invest in one another's debt and reduce reliance on creditors outside the region. Such dependence helped worsen the Asian financial crisis that began in 1997.
.
The central banks of 11 Asia-Pacific nations, including Thailand, Singapore, and China, also created a $1 billion fund in June to invest in regional governments' U.S. dollar debt.
.
"India has already put in $1 billion, and I instructed my finance minister that Thailand would put in another $1 billion," Thaksin said Monday in Bangkok. "It's very small - now we are rich."
.
Thailand's foreign-exchange reserves rose 0.9 percent to $42.6 billion for the week that ended Feb. 6, from $42.2 billion the week before, the central bank said Friday in a weekly report.
.
Thaksin expects finance ministers to discuss the latest fund in April at the Asian Cooperation Dialogue forum in Thailand, and he foresees more talks in June when foreign-affairs ministers meet in Beijing.
.
"By June you will see the clear direction" of the regional bond plan, he said.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. here's a bit that I find interesting

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newstories/RANewsStories_1052494.htm

Malaysia champions closer East Asian economic ties

Malaysia's Prime Minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, has renewed a call for the establishment of an East Asian community and closer integration with emerging economic giant China.

Opening a Malaysia-China economic forum in Kuala Lumpur, Mr Abdullah says China's economy is currently the sixth largest in the world.

He says the key consequence of its rapid growth is that the world's centre of economic gravity will shift towards East Asia.

Mr Abduallah says East Asian integration is vital because the 1997 to 1998 Asian financial meltdown had clearly shown the region was left very much to fend for itself in times of crisis.

[ozymandius]

17. China's economy is currently the sixth largest in the world.

So what would happen if an Malaysia-China economic confederation forms that includes Japan and smaller states? Juggernaut? Perhaps this would be a juggernaut so large that the United States would never be able to compete globally, much less keep its "largest economy" status in the world? Economic marginalization sounds like an appetizer especially when one considers that east Asian banks hold so much of our government in hock with their purchase of T-notes.

[54anickel]

26. I think some of this might be pandering for the Chinese vote....

Interesting article on Malaysian politics. Seems the GOP may have borrowed a sheet or two from their playbook (from the first paragraph)

Close government control of the media, changes to constituency boundaries and a gross mismatch between government and opposition finances combine to make this a virtual certainty.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3510418.stm

snip>
Chinese weight

The government is playing on the fear of Islamic fundamentalism to win over Malaysian Chinese voters.

However, despite making up a third of the electorate, the Chinese community has not had one of its politicians appointed to any of the top ministerial posts in over 30 years.

"In Malaysian politics, the Chinese accept certain compromise," says Jadryn Loo of the government party, the Malaysian Chinese Association.

"They don't mind not having much say in the government as long as they are able to make money, to have tolerance of culture and education, peace and stability."

She says the community just wants to be left alone to get on with business.

"The Chinese have a saying: 'Once you get the power of money you can change the world', and this is the thing the Chinese have been carrying for the last 400-500 years."

[54anickel]

29. Bit more on the BoJ games

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20040316-000460-0914

NEW YORK -- The dollar was recovering from intraday lows Tuesday in New York as investors squared positions ahead of a decision on U.S. interest rates by Federal Reserve policymakers.

However, the U.S. currency remained under pressure, especially against the yen, on continued speculation that Japanese monetary authorities would relax their interventionist policy.

snip>
The possibility that the Bank of Japan is considering an exit strategy by the country's March 31 fiscal year end, as suggested in a story in Tuesday's edition of The Nikkei Financial Daily citing central bank officials, has been reinforced by the apparent pulling of official bids for dollars in recent sessions.

The dollar has been whipped around since the Nikkei report was released Monday afternoon during New York trade. After initially tumbling about a yen to a two-week low of 109.25 Monday, the dollar quickly rebounded on apparent intervention. However, just ahead of the New York session Tuesday, the dollar fell back down to retest the previous day's lows after Japanese agent banks apparently pulled bids again overnight above 110 yen, traders said.

Still, the main effect of the report has been to add to the growing amount of uncertainty about BOJ policy, and it's unclear how much dollar weakness the central bank will tolerate.

"You never know with the BOJ, they may come in around 109 and defend that, and then that becomes the new support level," said Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist at Investors Bank & Trust in Boston, adding that he doesn't expect any real easing of intervention until late March or April.

The resumption of the dollar's slide against the yen sparked a broad-based retreat in the U.S. currency overnight, but the move ran out of steam as the market approached key resistance levels.

snip>
The Federal Open Market Committee, slated to announce its decision around 2:15 p.m. EST, is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 1%, but any tweaking of its statement could trigger a big move in an increasingly volatile market.

[ozymandius]

10. Tax Refunds Boost Chain Store Sales

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales at U.S. chain stores rebounded last week as tax refunds boosted spending power, helping keep year-on-year sales running at a brisk clip, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales rose 0.5 percent in the week ended March 13 compared with a 0.3 percent dip in the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report. Sales for the week rose 7.0 percent compared with the same week a year ago, matching the growth pace of the preceding week.

|story

[54anickel]

15. Just got my check yesterday. But that money is already

ear-marked for health, car and bike insurance - all due this month. No retail shopping for me this year. :-(

[ozymandius]

20. We got our taxes done yesterday.

We are getting a chunk back - but it, too is already spent towards retiring some debt. Of course, the cynic in me imagines my lack of surprise if the check from the Fed bounces.

[54anickel]

23. Hmmm, well I guess I might have to wait for that Federal check to

clear before I draw against it. :evilgrin:

[nolabels]

39. "bike insurance" what the heck

Was that motorcycle, or real bicycle? Our families health insurance comes from my Union job. We are also going to plow a good chunk of that Tax refund into that big down-payment for better and cheaper Auto insurance.

Most of it will to go pay off a couple a couple of them no-interest-6 month-same-as-cash prior purchases. I don't know who makes money on them deals, but I love paying them off before they even an extra penny from us.

But NO on buying anything with it. Really me and wife just use the refund as a slush fund and have not earmarked that IRS savings account for buying anything either

[54anickel]

41. Heh-heh, Yes motorcycle, and yeah, I used to have health insurance back

in the good old days, when I had a (non-union) job.

[ozymandius]

25. 9:43 - up and running

Dow 10,189.19 +86.30 (+0.85%)
Nasdaq 1,958.15 +18.95 (+0.98%)
S&P 500 1,112.69 +8.20 (+0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 3.779% +0.011

[ozymandius]

27. 10:04 - hanging at opening highs with little change

We can thank Lehman Brothers Holdings for these numbers.

Dow 10,188.37 +85.48 (+0.85%)
Nasdaq 1,959.90 +20.70 (+1.07%)
S&P 500 1,112.82 +8.33 (+0.75%)
10-Yr Bond 3.777% +0.009

Lehman Profit Soars, So Do Shares

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LEH - News), one of Wall Street's largest investment banks, on Tuesday said quarterly profit more than doubled, driven by higher revenue from bond and equity trading, stock sales and mergers.

The company said fiscal first-quarter net income rose to $670 million, or $2.21 per share, from $301 million, or $1.15 per share, a year earlier. Profit easily surpassed Wall Street estimates. Analysts polled by Reuters Research, a unit of Reuters Group Plc, on average forecast earnings of $1.66 per share.

<cut>
Lehman said it benefited from "robust customer flow activity" in much of its capital markets business. Higher confidence in the U.S. economy and corporate profitability led to increased merger activity and equity offerings, it said.

"If this trend continues, it means either the equity environment is really improving, or proprietary trading is becoming a bigger part of banks' equity operations," Tierney said. Lehman's results may mean analysts' profit forecasts for other investment banks "may be too low."

story

[54anickel]

31. "Proprietary trading" just what is that? That's not another term for

derivatives, is it? :scared:

[54anickel]

32. Ewww, seems it may be a bit "risky" - did a quick google

http://www.greencompany.com/PropTraders/Traders.shtml

snip>
Prop trading firm agreements and tax issues come in all various forms and sizes and in our one-of-a-kind and in-depth prop trading section, we cover all the tax, legal and risk issues you should address - either before you join a firm (preferably) or if you are in a firm now. For example, is the SEC on the heals of prop trading firms now and are they seeking to change the way they do business - which might significantly change the deal you have now?

Prop trading offers up to 2.5 to 5 times the amount of leverage available to retail traders. That leverage is like a sword. Leverage has an upside to greater and faster profits, but there is also a downside to more risk, more costs and pitfalls. Before you leap to 'take the money and run,' become an educated consumer first.

Currently, many of the prop trading firms use the "LLC model" inviting you to join the firm as an LLC member. Some firms also offer to hire you as either "independent contractors" or "employees." Other firms will allow you to trade with them as "customers" just like other retail traders, but then as a customer, you don't get additional leverage over the pattern day trader rules (currently 4 to 1 leverage). If the firm is a broker dealer or a member of an exchange, you are required to have a brokerage license.

Before you leap into one of these deals, read through this section, read the fine print of the agreements and see how they stack up, and consider a consultation with one of our CPAs or attorneys about all the tax and legal issues. We won't talk you out of prop trading, but we will make sure you understand the risks versus rewards, the legal and tax issues and we will give you some ideas to improve both. We also can alert you to some firms that we think are trouble and steer you in the direction of the firms we think are safe.

[ozymandius]

34. Never Never Never buy on margin.

This sounds like a rip-off. Note this part - inviting you to join the firm as an LLC member

Under what conditions would one be allowed to "join" or become an "employee"? A small nominal fee perhaps? Do you still owe the full-on leveraged rate? At what interest rate?

This sounds more like a ponzi scheme for day traders.

[54anickel]

37. But look what it's done for Lehman and the markets today! Buffet's

right, the derivative markets will be the big, bad, news one of these days.

[ozymandius]

30. Here comes some change.

10:19
Dow 10,172.15 +69.26 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq 1,951.62 +12.42 (+0.64%)
S&P 500 1,110.82 +6.33 (+0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 3.779% +0.011

[ozymandius]

28. Still 'patient' at the Fed? - commentary

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - There's probably only one big question going in to today's Federal Reserve policy meeting: Will Alan Greenspan & Co. signal an end to their willingness to be "patient" before raising interest rates?

With the economy growing, at least in terms of output, and many economists saying jobs are just around the corner (that's in the latest Manpower survey too), some are betting the Fed will drop that word and indicate a slightly different stance.

<cut>
With the stock market on fragile ground, and with the global community still shaken by last week's bombings in Madrid, some say there's a chance the Fed instead will signal a willingness to wait and make sure there are no cracks developing that could stall the U.S. economy's recovery, and put the brakes on the rest of the world too.

more...

[UpInArms]

36. the briefing.com blather on the Fed

Speculation surrounding today's FOMC meeting is rather tame, as the market largely expects that the federal funds rate will be maintained at 1.0%...

Of course, an exuberant amount of attention will be spent analyzing the wording of the policy directive and any changes versus last month's transcript... Currently, federal funds futures are pricing in a 90% likelihood of a rate hike in November...NYSE Adv/Dec 2171/826, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1778/1028

exuberant? :wtf:

[54anickel]

38. There have been more economists calling for a rate hike sooner

rather than later. I believe Stephen Roach was one. Then there's this little tidbit on a story by Stephen Jen in the Forex news today.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106020/content.asp?dia=1632004

Quotable
“Why is the US having so much difficulty generating jobs? I argue that the super-low interest rate stance in the US has had an unintended effect of skewing the incentives in favour of firms expanding capital rather than labour. The irony here is that, as long as interest rates stay low, the job market will struggle to recover, with labour being crowded out by capital…In other words, the apparent acceleration in outsourcing was not a situation where jobs are ‘pulled out’ of the US due to low wages overseas, but more ‘pushed out’ of the US due to the super-low interest rates and the rapid decline in the prices of machines.” Stephen Jen, Morgan Stanley


FX Trading
Despite the dismal job growth in the US, evidence increasingly suggests the Fed is well behind the interest rate curve. Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Jen put together a fascinating analysis (quotable above) of the impact of super low interest rates on the US labor market – despite resorting to the joker card of ceteris paribus in defining a firm’s capital to interest ratio. We are sure that this analysis is not lost on the Fed. Why? Because Mr. Jen’s theory describes the dynamics at play within the US economy…

We’ve seen rising productivity—thanks to deeper integration of technology by business at all levels i.e. rising capital investment to labor. This productivity has led to rising corporate profits. Consumer demand has been stimulated fueled by rising confidence flowing from the wealth effect, not by rising income. The wealth effect has been created by asset bubbles in real estate, stocks, and bonds. All thanks to super low interest rates courtesy of the Bubble Master himself Mr. Alan Greenspan. And Shazam! The circle of economic life in this America has just been squared!

And your question is: Why do I care about this stuff? Because we believe the Fed is well behind the interest rate curve. And we believe Mr. Greenspan is well aware of the dangerous amount of leverage he has created in the economy. And despite the pontifications of the financial pundits, talking heads, and stock market cheerleaders trotted on to the set of CNBC, I believe the Federal Open Market Committee has a very itchy interest rate trigger finger.

more...

[ozymandius]

11am - still hugging opening averages (w/ blather)

Dow 10,185.26 +82.37 (+0.82%)
Nasdaq 1,953.68 +14.48 (+0.75%)
S&P 500 1,111.49 +7.00 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 3.784% +0.016

3M profit view lifts U.S. stocks

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks roared higher early Tuesday with a strong profit outlook for 3M providing fuel for a rally after the sharp sell-off that started the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) surged 88 points, or 0.9 percent, to 10,191, while the Nasdaq Composite (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) added almost 20 points, or 1 percent, to 1,958.69.

<cut>
Investors are also looking ahead to this afternoon's meeting of Federal Reserve officials. The Fed's target interest rate lies at a four-decade-low 1 percent. An interest rate hike is not expected, but economists will be watching the language of the Open Market Committee's statement for any hints of future policy actions. The announcement is scheduled for about 2:15 p.m. Eastern.

story

[54anickel]

33. This Bloomberg story might get the bulls running

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aihFXKbdTNLI&refer=us

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose after 3M Co. boosted its first-quarter profit estimate and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s earnings more than doubled to a record, reassuring investors that the market's year-long rally may be revived.

``Earnings are growing and were seeing actually revenues pick up,'' said Lawrence Weissman, who helps manage $500 billion at Citigroup Asset Management in New York. ``This is a good time to get more aggressive on the market'' after a decline of 4.6 percent in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since its 2004 high on Feb. 11.

snip>
More than two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Some 275 million shares changed hands on the Big Board, 7.4 percent more than the same time a week ago.

Federal Reserve policy makers are likely to keep the benchmark interest rate at a 45-year low of 1 percent when they meet today because employment growth has been slower than forecast, according to economists. The Fed's decision is due at 2:15 p.m. Washington time.

The central bank will wait until 2005 to raise its key interest rate, according to economists at 10 of the 23 securities dealers that trade with the Fed surveyed by Bloomberg News.

``It looks like the Fed won't be hurting us, so stocks will finish up on the year,'' said James McGlynn, who helps manage $6 billion at Summit Investment Partners in Cincinnati. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan ``has been throwing cash out fast and furious, and that's kept the market up.''

snip>
S&P 500 Undervalued?

Goldman, Sachs & Co. Chief Investment Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said the S&P 500 is 15 percent to 20 percent undervalued after the recent decline. She maintained her forecast for the benchmark to reach 1250 by the end of 2004.

snip>
Housing Starts

Housing starts fell for a second month in February, losing 4 percent to an annual rate of 1.855 million, the slowest since August, the Commerce Department said in Washington. At last month's pace, more homes still will be built this year than in 2003 when it was the highest since 1978.

Global fund managers this month became the least optimistic in almost a year about the prospects for worldwide economic growth and their expectations for corporate profits diminished. Forty-eight percent of the 282 money managers polled by Merrill Lynch said the world economy will expand in the next 12 months, compared with the 65 percent who said so in February.

[Chicago Democrat]

35. This has been a sickening week...I need good news!

Hurrah!

[Maeve]

40. 11:30 update

Dow 10,189.12 +86.23 (+0.85%)
Nasdaq 1,950.84 +11.64 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,111.70 +7.21 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 3.783% +0.015

Now that I got the computer back for #2 Son....Slight downhill creep in the indices as the day progresses. We shall see what we shall see...

BTW, the temperature is just about melting point, so today's snow is great for snowmen but won't last. 3-4 inches, maybe.

[UpInArms]

42. a few news notes

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61778-2004Mar15.html

excerpts:

Jeffrey K. Skilling, former chief executive of Enron, asked a federal judge to give him access to $55 million in personal assets that were frozen after his indictment for fraud and insider trading. Skilling's lawyer said he could not pay health and auto insurance premiums or property taxes due on his homes.

<snip>

Lockheed Martin gave chief executive Vance Coffman a 23 percent raise last year although the Bethesda company's shares fell 11 percent, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Coffman, 59, received $13.8 million in salary, bonus, long-term incentives and other compensation.

<snip>

A federal bankruptcy judge reluctantly ordered the termination of health care coverage for at least 9,000 retirees of Weirton Steel and their dependents at the end of March, after lawyers argued that continued payments of $3 million a month could force the steelmaker into liquidation. Weirton slashed its workforce after it filed for bankruptcy protection last year but has continued to pay full benefits to retirees for almost 10 months.

<snip>

Occidental Petroleum, the fourth-largest U.S. oil company, said that chief executive Ray R. Irani met with Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi to discuss resuming production and that the company will open an office in Libya as soon as possible.

Verizon Communications said chief executive Ivan Seidenberg's pay, excluding restricted stock and options, declined 9.2 percent, to $8.6 million, in 2003, when the stock fell 9.5 percent.

<snip>

Fannie Mae, the District-based mortgage funding company, said the fair value of its assets rose 43 percent last year, to $31.6 billion. The number includes the estimated market value of complicated financial instruments known as derivatives that the company has not yet sold. Fannie Mae also disclosed that it incurred 2003 losses of $6.9 billion on hedges.

Freddie Mac named Ralph Boyd general counsel and director of government relations four days after the McLean-based mortgage finance company's top lobbyist left amid a probe into compliance with federal election laws. Boyd, 47, oversaw the Justice Department investigation into the 2000 presidential election in Florida, the company said.

...more...

[54anickel]

43. My, well that's fine, just fine. Is this the mad rush to get all they can

before the elections, just in case their guy looses? Sort of like in the days of Poppy Bush? Someone posted this on DU, can't remember where, but I bookmarked the article.

This might be a opportune time to re-post it here. This may give us some insight into the near future.

Edit subject line to reflect my Georgia Peach finishing school lessons. :evilgrin:

http://www.campaignwatch.org/details.htm

While opportunism isn’t new in U.S. politics, never did so many in one family extract so many dollars from taxpayers as when George Bush senior was president a decade ago. As documented below from impeccable cited sources, the exploits of six Bushes, including George W., range from stock sales that were probed or sanctioned to arranging U.S. business investments for a Japanese Mob front. They range from lobbying for a Mafia-linked businessman that enabled massive Medicare fraud to misconduct that helped trigger S&L collapses costing taxpayers $1.2 billion.

It was thus not entirely coincidental that under Bush senior in 1992, U.S. taxpayers faced a $500 billion S&L bailout2 and the largest ever budget deficit, $290 billion. This contrasts with the largest surpluses ever under Clinton-Gore. George W. Bush asks for trust, yet his evasions about his own dealings and recent campaigning with brother Jeb immerse him within a family financial scandal of alarming scope.

more....

[54anickel]

44. Hey, what happened to the Nasdaq? 12:25

Dow 10,143.41 +40.52 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,937.82 -1.38 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,107.11 +2.62 (+0.24%)
30-yr Bond 4.721% +0.010

NYSE Volume 646,861,000
Nasdaq Volume 884,370,000

12:00PM: It's a relatively unexciting day on Wall Street, although certainly a welcome improvement from the sizeable declines of last week and yesterday, as the major averages are trading with moderate gains, albeit on light volume... Corporate developments this morning were once again favorable, with Dow component 3M (MMM 78.94 +4.07) raising guidance and Lehman Brothers (LEH 85.08 +0.43) reporting better than expected earnings...
These, along with the economic data, which included the Housing Starts at 1.885 mln and Building Permits at 1.903K, have proven to be supporting factors for the market ahead of the FOMC policy announcement, which is expected at 14:15ET... With respect to that latter, the federal funds rate is largely expected to be maintained at 1.0%, while the Fed's policy directive will garner an exaggerated amount of attention, particularly if the wording is altered from last month's transcript... The Dow is outperforming the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on a relative basis as it has drifted mostly sideways through the morning, while the other two have backed off their morning highs...

Keep in mind, though, that the market may experience an exaggerated degree of volatility given the light volume totals and the upcoming quadruple-witch expiration on Friday... Looking at sector action, the bulk of the groups are in the green, with leaders to the upside including the internet, semiconductor, gold, forestry & wood, metal mining, and banking groups... Laggards of note are harder to come by, but include the aerospace & defense, transportations, and software sectors... Elsewhere, the bond market is backing off a bit, with the 10-year note down 6/32, bringing its yield up to 3.79%...

[54anickel]

45. A bit of into here

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040316/03c53629fe5102e9813ff809fa8cd300_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks tempered early gains at mid-session Tuesday with a strong profit outlook for 3M only able to give the blue chips enough juice to retrace a little less than a third of the sharp sell-off that started the week.

Strength in tech stocks waned more dramatically with the Nasdaq dipped into negative territory. The selling came as the expected announcement from Tuesday's Fed meeting crept closer. The statement is due in roughly one hour and forty-five minutes.

snip>
Investors were also looking ahead to this afternoon's meeting of Federal Reserve officials. The Fed's target interest rate lies at a four-decade-low 1 percent. An interest rate hike is not expected, but economists will be watching the language of the Open Market Committee's statement for any hints of future policy actions. The announcement is scheduled for about 2:15 p.m. Eastern.

Monday's weakness was driven by renewed terrorism fears with evidence mounting of al-Qaida's possible involvement in last week's deadly train bombings in Spain.

The action comes against the backdrop of continuing valuation concerns following 2003's stellar returns.

Byron Wien, U.S. equity strategist with Morgan Stanley, isn't surprised by the recent pullback in stocks.

"The current correction in the stock market was inevitable and is probably not over," he told clients in brief research note. "When it is over I expect it to be greater than 5 percent (pullback from highs) but less than 10 percent."

snip>
The mergers kept coming early Tuesday as BancWest agreed to acquire Community First Bankshares (NasdaqNM:CFBX - News) in a cash deal valued at $1.2 billion.

Under the terms of the deal, BancWest will pay $32.25 for each Community First share, a 15 percent premium. BancWest is a subsidiary of French bank BNP Paribas. BNP shares gained over 1 percent in Paris.

On the earnings front, Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH - News) reported first-quarter net income of $670 million, or $2.21 per share, up from with $301 million, or $1.15 per share in the year-ago period.

snip>
Also, in a deal between two Dow components, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ - News) agreed to assume operation of Procter & Gamble's (NYSE:PG - News) accounts payable operations as part of an expansion of the companies' current $3 billion, 10-year outsourcing contract. H-P would not disclose the amount of the expanded services deal, which is expected to be signed in April. H-P shares rose 0.5 percent, while P&G's stock added 0.8 percent.

snip>
:evilgrin: Mama.com (NasdaqSC:MAMA - News) was a standout on the Nasdaq, soaring more than 26 percent to $9.91 on heavy volume of 18 million. An SEC filing revealed that Mark Cuban, the owner of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks and an Internet billionaire who sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo for hefty profit during the boom in Web stocks, has assumed a 6.3 percent stake in the company.

[UpInArms]

46. or was it "terra! terra! terra!"?

blather:

12:30PM: The market has weakened in a noticeable fashion over the last half an hour, with the Nasdaq dipping into the red, as geopolitical events, threats, and rumors have taken the wind out of the earlier advance... Specifically, there was an unconfirmed rumor that several subway lines were shut down in NYC due to a bomb scare... Separately, Reuters issued a statement saying that a rumor of Osama Bin Laden's capture was false... Finally, according to Reuters, the French Justice Ministry said that an Islamic group has threatened France...

Clearly, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical happenings on the heels of last week's train bombings in Spain... Keep in mind, that the Friday's quadruple-witching options expiration and today's light volume totals may exaggerate the market's volatility...NYSE Adv/ Dec 2017/1114, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1444/1475

[54anickel]

47. Oh for cripessake! And exactly what is this "Quadruple-witching options

expiration" thing they keep bringing up? Yesterday was the first time I saw that nonsense in the blather explaining the drop. Anyone know what the heck that is?

[UpInArms]

54. that witchie hunting thingie

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20040315005152&newsLang=en

The VIX did move all the way below 15 until the beginning of March, when it began moving higher. It currently sits just over 20, and with the "quadruple witching" (expiration of 4 different kinds of options and futures contracts) next Friday, more volatility is a reasonable expectation. Adam Oliensis, editor of the Agile Trader says the VIX remains in a sell signal, but currently sits at its most oversold point in the history of the indicator.

[54anickel]

56. That's not a good thing, is it?

As valuations expanded and investors collectively bought in to the economic growth thesis, the Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of the amount for fear or complacency in the market, moved below 20. When the VIX moves above 40, it is usually associated with a market bottom. A quick glance at the chart of the VIX reveals two very glaring examples of high volatility correlating with market bottoms.

snip>
Both Oliensis and Gregory Spear, editor of The Spear Report: Professional Edition noted an attempted turn on Thursday, March 11th. However, the news of the bombings in Madrid and late-day discovery of evidence that potentially points to Al Qaeda as the culprits in the tragedy drove the market lower and the VIX higher.

We saw the day trader chatter about hoping for that down day to turn around the next, before the bombing....starting to get a little understanding of these games now days

[54anickel]

53. Wasn't Shrub yapping on C-Span a bit ago? Pie-hole effect again?

[KoKo]

48. 1,1937 I believe is the "low" for Nasdaq since the problems started last

week! I just checked my numbers I've jotted down (using Iossif's) benchmarks from his column last week and this number put it in his "1st Downside Target" which was l,950-25. His Second Downside for the
Nasdaq is 1,875.

The "Technical Folks" must be furiously crunching some numbers and charts, I think, because some key "supports" have been breached. We may be heading for the confirmed "Low" where we are all supposed to be ready to "jump back in with our "re-fi" and tax refund dollars, and start playing the Casino again for the next "leg of the Bull." I can't wait to jump between those horns of the bull for the next ride up where I can retire comfortably on my winnings. Of course I need to do this before Election 2004, when the s**t hits the fan and they finally release the PPI numbers and the Debt burden starts to sink the Titanic of our economy! :D

[54anickel]

49. Thanks for checking the technicals KoKo. Thought we were pretty

close yesterday but never got around to checking.

So is it terra, terra, terra, or the technicals at work and someone again scanning the headlines for a reason? Maybe a bit of both? Or that witch hunt thingy. :shrug:

[KoKo]

55. What's odd to me, and maybe some of you here would agree, is that

The market just kept going up after 9/11 and no matter how many terrorist alerts we had or the Iraq Invasion, we didn't have any down turns like this in length, like last week has been in the markets.

I remember the pre-Bush market days when the markets would dive down on "rumors" and there was alot of volatility based on national/international events. Also the Nasdaq and the Dow really didn't go up and down in tandem as they've done since Bush.

I don't think this is just my imagination on this because I was a CNBC addict back before it "was" CNBC when GE bought out the old FNN (Financial News Network)broadcast out of California where they attempted "real" market reporting. Something has smelled of manipulation in this market since the Bushies came in and that's what my gut tells me. It may well be the new schemes like derivatives, and hedge funds which have become more mainstream with smaller fish getting in learning the game, but this last week's activity is the most volatility I've seen and that they are scrambling for any reason to explain the downside is also interesting. I'm not sure if it's the "house of cards" starting to come down on the Bushies, or just panic for "unknown reasons" with lots of manipulators trying to cover their butts with their shorts and options and who knows what else because "supports" have fallen below what they anticipated.
:shrug: Edited to add: downturns of this length..since 9/11. We did have one big panic but it didn't last this long.

[54anickel]

57. JMHO This isn't the market we grew up with anymore -

The rules of the game have changed for the big player from investment (they got us little guys playing by those loser rules) to speculation.

I posted an article a while back about the trillions of dollar of liquidity introduced to the markets thru derivatives (aka proprietary trading?) Scary part is that Greenspan doesn't want the SEC looking into the derivative markets either. Millions, if not trillions are made in this game of drive the market down, bid it back up. The little guy gets fleeced, or just breaks even in the long run if he's of a buy and hold mentality.

[nolabels]

64. They have been cooking the books on just about everything else

I think their biggest problems are going to be because they have set everything up for a rapid growth scenario and if they don't make their mark all hell breaks loose. The facts on the ground don't match the targets and predictions. The corporate monstrosity that has umbrage over company I work for shows me glimpses of it all the time.

They seem to have set it up for unrealistic goals. Like so many other Corporations. The place I work out of can more than pay its bills, but the corporation needs it to make a hefty profit so it can use it as part of its springboard. They do this while they try pull the rug from underneath others which means the economy can't grow even if conditions were good. It's their own making, I hope the business schools are proud with students, because it looks shaky to me

This excerpt from the LAT just highlights this kind of idiotic thinking

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-031604econ_lat,1,1822292.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Employers Predict More Hiring

By Jesus Sanchez, Times Staff Write
(snip)
Meanwhile, on Wall Street, stocks rebounded from Monday's steep losses as investors awaited the outcome of today's meeting of Federal Reserve policymakers. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

A survey by the temporary employment agency Manpower recorded the third consecutive increase in projected hiring activity, with 28% of employers surveyed saying they plan to increase hiring in the upcoming second quarter. Only 6% anticipated reducing hiring while the vast majority, 62%, foresaw no change in employment, according to the survey of 16,000 companies.

The proportion of those planning to increase employment is the highest since the first quarter of 2001 and is nearly twice as strong as it was last year, according to Manpower.

"Based on the hiring intentions that were reported across a majority of the companies surveyed, it is clear that demand for their products and services has finally surpassed the capacity and productivity of the current workforce," said Manpower Chairman Jeffrey A. Joerres in a statement.

Hiring conditions are projected to improve from the current quarter and year ago results in all industry groups and geographic regions. The strongest employment conditions were expected in the construction industry and among employers in the South.
(snip)

They later to go on about how the housing market is falling, but thinking it will come back. They contradict themselves in their own article if you leave the pure speculation out of it.

[ozymandius]

50. Just checked the numbers at 12:50 and not much has changed.

At this time I must leave. See you all in the morning!

:hi:

Ozy

[54anickel]

51. Bye Ozy! Have a great day. As always, thanks for starting us off

every morning. :hi:

[UpInArms]

52. bye Ozy!

Have a Great Day and :yourock: for starting this thread for us every morning! :toast:

:hi:

[54anickel]

58. 1:39 update

Dow 10,166.75 +63.86 (+0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,940.47 +1.27 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,109.23 +4.74 (+0.43%)
30-yr Bond 4.714% +0.003

NYSE Volume 832,461,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,129,395,000


Blather - :eyes:

1:30PM: The market lifts off its session lows after receiving confirmation from CNBC that the rumor of subway shut downs in NY is not true... Accordingly, the Nasdaq has lifted into the green again, while the S&P 500 and Dow are trading with moderate gains and the latter outperforming on a relative basis... In the Dow, 22 of its 30 components are in the green, with leaders to the upside including 3M (MMM 78.43 +3.56), Caterpillar (CAT 75.06 +1.08), and Home Depot (HD 35.98 +0.57)...
Laggards of note include American Express (AXP 50.25 -0.70), Honeywell (HON 31.92 -0.67), and Boeing (BA 39.28 -0.50)... BA was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at CSFB, along with Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon (RTN) - please see the Upgrade/Downgrade Briefing for more details...NYSE Adv/Dec 1808/1364, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1218/1785

[UpInArms]

59. The Daily Reckoning

(another brutal epistle)

The U.S. stock market seems to have rolled over into Phase
II of the Great Bear Market we've been worrying you about
for the past 5 years.


The Dow lost nearly 500 points in the last 6 days of
trading (based on the numbers at 4pm yesterday). Hardly
anyone noticed.


The national character was well prepared for Phase I. It
was blasé, insouciant... congenitally relaxed. The thought
occurred to us on the metro last night as we entered a loud
car full of slouching American teenagers on a class trip.
The woman sitting across from us had once been pretty. But
she had not bothered to put on make-up. She wore what
looked like an exercise outfit... ready to absorb the sweat
from her pudgy body as she made her way around Paris. She
must have been a teacher or an accompanying parent. But she
carried herself like one of her charges - lazily, stupidly,
casually. On another bench was a young man who had not
bothered to tie his shoes or comb his hair.


In America, no one notices. Everyone is as relaxed as
jello. The French are uptight by comparison; here, there is
a residual respect for culture, class and style. The
British, by contrast, tend to vulgarity, hooliganism or
self-conscious anti-culture - at least, that is the
impression you get from reading the newspapers, going to an
art show or walking down Oxford Street. Americans used to
be known for their vulgarity. But it was a naïve,
energetic, baroque vulgarity... innocent and almost
attractive. Now, Americans are too soft and limp to be
vulgar. They go along with anything... for they can't be
bothered to think about it.


Like... whatever...


On the train this morning, en route to London, a fat young
man in a T-shirt sat down across the aisle with a skinny
woman at his side. He took off his shoes and put his smelly
feet up on the seat. When he opened his mouth we discovered
that he, too, was one of us... an American... a slob. We
studied him at length. Did he have any idea of how
repulsive he seemed, we wondered? Oh no... he began stroking
and kissing the grumpy-looking French woman, who must have
been his wife. Yech... And then, she reached under his T-
shirt to rub his back. Uh oh... they looked deeply into each
other's eyes... they must have been newlyweds, or else they
were both blind... they embraced... We thought we might be
getting sick.


These are our own people. We want to think well of them.
Besides, what possible difference does it make what people
look like, or how they dress? And yet, as Aristotle might
have said had he thought of it, in the breath of our
national character we smell, faintly, our decaying national
fate.


Four years into the 21st century, the Great Bear Market
Americans are so at ease with themselves and life in
general... so deeply asleep to the rigors of life... that
they have nearly lost consciousness. Back in the '70s, the
national current account deficit rose to nearly 1% of GDP.
Economists were alarmed. The dollar fell. Stocks fell. The
nation was so strapped and the dollar so weak that the
Carter Administration planned to borrow $10 billion in
foreign currency to tide itself over. By the time the
period was over, you could have earned 15% interest yield
from a U.S. Treasury bond. A typical stock - which you
could have bought at an average of 6 times earnings - would
have paid dividends of more than 5%.


Today, the current account deficit is above 5% and
economists see no problem. For the moment, the U.S.
government still borrows in a currency it alone controls.
And foreign central banks still seem so happy to lend that
over the last 3 months, their holdings of U.S. government
securities rose at more than 50% annual rate to more than
$1 trillion.


Stocks, real estate, employment, interest rates, government
spending... all the things we count upon to maintain our fat
and happy lives depend on foreigners... who may be less
relaxed that we are. The Japanese alone spent nearly $70
billion of their own money in the month of January trying
to keep alive Americans' fantasy economy. Even this was not
enough; the dollar fell anyway. In the same month, Japanese
finance minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said right out loud that
he thought Japan might be overdoing it. Maybe Japan would
be better served with other assets in its central vault
other than just U.S. Treasury bonds he suggested.


The menace to Americans' way of life went - like so many
other threats - unmentioned in the Land of the Free Lunch.
And today, the International Herald Tribune was again
silent on what the Dow's latest downturn might portend.
Once in motion, a stock market continues to fall until it
falls too much. It only comes to a halt at levels that make
stocks not only decent deals... but attractive ones. A
currency, too, falls not to a point of equilibrium... but
far beyond. There, once again, it is out of balance with
the rest of the world, but this time, in the opposite
sense.


In Phase I, the retreat was orderly and calm. But Phase II
may be less calm and more disturbing. It may even unsettle
Americans from their carefree reverie...

[54anickel]

60. Wow, brutal and nasty. Makes me a bit ashamed to be from the US.

[KoKo]

79. OMG....another one. Thanks, though. This is what I see where I live and

yet the deterioration started about 5-6 years ago. People do look and act just like that description from Daily Reckoning. It wasn't true before. People look like they don't care about themselves or anyone else. When I moved where I lived it was NOT like this. Something has happened to our country. People stopped dressing for work during the Bubble heydey and that filtered down to a more casual life style. But, casual has turned into a sloppy laziness and people look depressed.

I did a post about it, but think folks thought I was criticizing people who didn't have money to spend on clothes because they were out of work. It wasn't that. It was about my observations. And, i've been around long enough to have seen lot's of fashion trends lived in various areas of the Northeast and now in the South. There has been a real change in the way we Americans look and how we feel about ourselves and others and in such a short time.


Another observation is that even DU doesn't have many posts in alarm over what the market is doing this past week. But, then, it's possible no one has any money left to worry about or that we simply can't handle anymore bad news because we are in "overload." Maybe we are all beaten down from the years of the Clinton Impeachment and the decline of country into the clutches of this group of Deranged Zealots who do nothing but think of ways to cause more chaos, terror, and despair in psyche's of all of us so that they will do their bidding.

Well...sorry for the rant. It doesn't belong here, but that article just set me off...:-(

[JNelson6563]

77. Quite something

It's pretty true though. When I go to one of my kids' concerts (or whatever) I try to look presentable, not all dolled up but presentable. I often marvel at some of the other parents. Dirty clothes on kids and parents, dirty hair, very overweight and all-around unkept. I don't care what your tax bracket is, a little self respect costs nothing. Even those who haven't got money can surely clean up a little bit.

Even crappy stuff is much nicer when it's clean.

Sorry to read we are being so poorly represented abroad. Couple the impression these oafs make with the news stories of the boy king and Voila! The world's image of America. Sad.


Julie

[UpInArms]

61. U.S. Federal Open Market Committee Statement: Full Text

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a0MJ1ppeDw7A&refer=home

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- The following is the full text of the statement released today by the Federal Reserve:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid pace. Although job losses have slowed, new hiring has lagged. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation.

...voting for the above statement can be found at link...

[54anickel]

63. Hmmm, the next few quarters - 2005?

[54anickel]

62. Will Greenspan bail, er um, retire?

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/16/news/economy/fed_greenspan/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - When Alan Greenspan presides over a meeting of Federal Reserve policy-makers Tuesday, he will do so in what is probably the twilight of his storied tenure as chairman of the central bank.

Greenspan is likely to serve out his current four-year term as chairman, which ends June 20, and President Bush has said he will offer the 78-year-old Greenspan the chance to remain chairman until his 14-year term on the Fed board ends in February 2006.

But the tone of some of Greenspan's speeches lately have led some observers to believe he may be preparing to retire relatively soon. Beyond his usual cryptic remarks, the central bank chairman has weighed in on controversial topics such as Social Security and government-backed mortgage banks, while musing about his role in the 1990s stock-market bubble.

With that in mind, it's never too early to play the parlor game of guessing about a possible successor. In the spirit of wild-eyed speculation, then, here are some of the candidates who could fill Greenspan's shoes:

more...

[UpInArms]

65. I say why let the bastard retire?

kick the junk to the street!

:dem: :kick:

And why in the hell are there some real choices in a replacement for this POS?

Krugman comes immediately to mind. :evilgrin:

[WillyT]

66. Something Is Taking The Market Out For A Dribble, Check Here !!!

Link: http://www.investorseek.com/charts/dowchrts.html

Holy Crap, look at the dribble then drop!

What's goin on here?

:shrug:

[WillyT]

67. Am I Right To Assume That The Bottom Half Of That Chart...

is volume???

:shrug:

Everybody looks to be screamin "Sell!"

:shrug:

[54anickel]

69. Looks like a loud scream alright.

[KoKo]

81. WOW! If that isn't some kind of "manipulation" I don't know what is! and.

compare that chart to the NASDAQ and S&P. The same dip and then the same basket shoot! Geeze! What more proof do we need that someone had to put a rug under that hole in the floor!

[UpInArms]

68. market numbers (a reversal in direction)

Dow 10,113.12 +10.23 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,931.65 -7.55 (-0.39%)
S&P 500 1,103.16 -1.33 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 3.712% -0.056

[WillyT]

70. Still Bouncing Near The Floor !!!

Link: http://www.investorseek.com/charts/dowchrts.html

Should be an interesting final hour.

:shrug:

[UpInArms]

71. blather

3:00PM: The market is experiencing typical post-Fed volatility, with the major averages having declined to new session lows since the last update and now trading within a short reach of their respective worst levels of the day... While the bulk of the sectors were trading in positive territory earlier in the session, the picture is not as upbeat at this juncture... Accordingly, laggards of note now include the software, networking, biotech, oil services, transportation, aerospace & defense, construction services, and medical equipment & supplies groups...

Leaders to the upside are more difficult to come across now, but groups trading in positive territory include the banking, drug, internet. personal services, and metal mining sectors...NYSE Adv/Dec 1767/1452, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1171/1906

[54anickel]

72. Nah, I think it's hedge unwinding getting ready for the witching thingy

http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:B9-FLfYi9moJ:www.columbia.edu/~cj88/papers/witching.pdf+VIX+quadruple+witching&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

[UpInArms]

74. looks like they threw all lot of chips into the fire

We examine the behavior of stock prices and trading volume around the quarterly expiration of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 futures contract. These days are often called triple-witching or quad-witching days because the futures contract, equity index options,
individual equity options, and more recently single-stock futures all expire or settle on the same day. S&P 500 futures and options settle based on the opening prices of the constituent stocks. As a result of this settlement procedure, witching days generate large and edictable liquidity shocks at the open that are generally attributed to the unwinding of index arbitrage positions.

The arbitrage strategy dictates that initial long or short cash market trades must be reversed on the expiration day to close out the arbitrage position and realize the anticipated profits.

Therefore, arbitrageurs are likely to submit large buy or sell orders at the open on the expiration day. A temporary mismatch between these orders could send the price up or down in response to the imbalance between supply and demand. Traders may also have incentives to attempt to manipulate the opening price on these days.

[54anickel]

75. Doesn't just build your confidence in the markets as a "little guy"?

No wonder Greenspin wants all this hedging and derivative stuff left alone. Who would back the idea of individuals contributing their SS money to the markets instead if they understood what was going on.

Looks like another redistribution of wealth up the ladder scheme to me. Sort of like another stealth tax. Inflation is a stealth tax (brought on by the never stopping printing press at the Fed). Now taking the little buy and hold guy to the cleaners, letting him keep just a wee bit of earnings so he's suckered into "investing" while the big guys clean up.

This is just so sick!

[KoKo]

82. And today is the final proof we needed looking at those charts!

unbelievable....and yes...it's sick. But, only to those of us who still have some ethics left. Ugh..........

[54anickel]

73. Heading back up in the last 1/2 hour 3:25 numbers

Dow 10,159.04 +56.15 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,938.19 -1.01 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,109.04 +4.55 (+0.41%)
30-yr Bond 4.647% -0.064

NYSE Volume 1,228,353,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,651,692,000

[UpInArms]

76. number at 3:50 EST (another stunning reversal ;-)

Dow 10,200.97 +98.08 (+0.97%)
Nasdaq 1,948.14 +8.94 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,112.55 +8.06 (+0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 3.688% -0.080

[JNelson6563]

78. Gitcher closin' numbers here!!

Get 'em while they're hot folks!


Dow 10,184.67 +81.78 (+0.81%)
Nasdaq 1,943.08 +3.88 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,110.70 +6.21 (+0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 3.688% -0.080


Qutie a thread today all. UpInArms, remarkable compilation of news-stories up the thread a bit. Poor Skilling. Can't pay his health insurance eh? Well he's a rich guy so we need to remedy that pronto!! Can't have him finding out what reality is like or anything. Ugh!

So any wagers on how the cheerleaders will play up today's "incredible gains"? haha Ugly # on housing starts. Ouch! That's ok though. I'll bet everybody's spending their tax refund on plastic shit at Wal-Mart so they'll make lots of money and we can once again report "it's all good". :toast:

Catch you marketeers in the AM. Nice thread today, as always.

Julie

[54anickel]

80. Friggen amazing! Stomach is still woozy from all that up and down.