STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday March 5

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday March 5, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 4, 2010

Dow... 10,444.14 +47.38 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq... 2,292.31 +11.63 (+0.51%)
S&P 500... 1,122.97 +4.18 (+0.37%)
Gold future... 1,134 -9.60 (-0.84%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.60 -0.02 (-0.47%)
30-Year Bond 4.56 -0.03 (-0.61%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:
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    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb
Briefing.com 10.0%
Consensus 9.8%
Prior 9.7%

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb
Briefing.com -120K
Consensus -63K
Prior -20K

08:30 Hourly Earnings Feb
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Average Workweek Feb
Briefing.com 33.9
Consensus 33.7
Prior 33.9

15:00 Consumer Credit Jan
Briefing.com -$5.6B
Consensus -$4.5B
Prior -$1.7B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

16. Nonfarm payrolls fall 36,000; jobless rate 9.7%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nonfarm-payrolls-fall-36000-jobless-rate-97-2010-03-05

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls declined for the 25th time in the past 26 months, falling by 36,000 in February to 129.5 million, the Labor Department estimated Friday. Job losses were concentrated in construction, schools, retail and publishing. Manufacturing jobs rose by 1,000, the second increase in a row. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. Severe snow storms during the survey week may have depressed the payroll count, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it could not quantify the impact. Total hours worked fell by 0.6%, likely due to weather-related shutdowns. The employment report was better than expected, as economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting a drop of 90,000. They expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.8%.

Dec. revised to -109,000 from -150,000
Jan. revised to -26,000 from -20,000

[TheWatcher]

43. Delete.

Wrong place.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises to near $81 ahead of key US jobs report

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose to near $81 a barrel Friday in Asia as crude traders followed equity markets higher ahead of a key U.S. jobs report. ...

U.S. stock markets rose Thursday on investor optimism that the February unemployment rate, scheduled to be released by the Labor Department later Friday, will show the economy is recovering. The jobless rate in January was 9.7 percent. ...

In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil rose 0.59 cent to $2.0746 a gallon, and gasoline gained 0.96 cents to $2.2433 a gallon. Natural gas was down 0.9 cent at $4.566 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. House passes jobs bill despite doubts

WASHINGTON – Despite doubts among many lawmakers that it will create many jobs, the House on Thursday passed legislation giving companies that hire the jobless a temporary payroll tax break. The measure passed 217-201 on a mostly party-line vote. The bill also extends federal highway programs through the end of the year.

Some Democrats feel the approximately $35 billion jobs bill is too puny, while others say the tax cut for new hires won't generate many new jobs. However, the pressure is on to address jobs and deliver a badly needed win for President Barack Obama and a Democratic Party struggling in opinion polls and facing major losses in the upcoming midterm elections. Further jobs measures are promised. ...

The jobs bill contains two major provisions. First, it would exempt businesses hiring the unemployed from the 6.2 percent Social Security payroll tax through December and give them an additional $1,000 credit if new workers stay on the job a full year. The Social Security trust fund would be reimbursed for the lost revenue.

Second, it would extend highway and mass transit programs through the end of the year and pump in $20 billion in time for the spring construction season. The money would make up for lower-than-expected gasoline tax revenues.

Small businesses would continue to be able to write off equipment purchases as a business expense. Much of the bill is financed by cracking down on offshore tax havens.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100305/ap_on_bi_ge/us_congress_jobs_bill

[Rhiannon12866]

4. K&R! And the cartoon says it all...

:thumbsup:

[ozymandius]

5. Thank you.

And good morning. :donut: :donut: :donut:

[Rhiannon12866]

8. Good morning and thank you!

Your hard work is much appreciated and I look forward to your cartoon of the day. They always seem to sum things up so accurately... :applause: :hi:

[Demeter]

13. And We Wonder WHY It Has to Be Said At All

Denial. It is an epidemic.

[DemReadingDU]

17. Denial is everywhere

There is not a recovery, it's staring people in their faces...more jobless people, more stores closed. Yet unless it happens to them, they're in denial.

[Roland99]

23. Kind of a rough cartoon for these parts down here.

But it really is quite accurate.

[Demeter]

31. That's What Gives It the Contemporary "Bite"

but it is tasteless. That poor woman.

[rfranklin]

37. Wasn't she the third person killed by this whale?

I think she was foolish to take the job.

[tclambert]

42. It sounds like the whale didn't mean to kill her,

despite everybody calling him a Killer Whale. He didn't actually eat her. The story I heard on the Teevee was that he grabbed her ponytail and her hair got caught in his teeth. Then he tried to shake her loose. They should rename him Lennie.

[tclambert]

46. Yes, you're right. Three people.

"Tilikum, sometimes misspelled Tillikum, is a bull orca who lives at SeaWorld Orlando. He has sired many children, and has been involved in the deaths of three people." From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilikum_(orca)

It says the cause of death in 2 cases was drowning and one was hypothermia. There may not be malice involved, but it is certainly a disturbing pattern.

[ozymandius]

6. JPMorgan, Citi Lead Bond Market as High-Yield Issues Set Record

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- The thawing of the credit markets in 2009 spawned record debt sales as companies sought to ensure they had enough capital to run their businesses and meet their debt obligations. Corporate bond sales worldwide climbed 31 percent to $3.04 trillion and issuance of high-yield, high-risk securities -- the most lucrative market for underwriters -- ballooned by 181 percent to $207 billion, Bloomberg Markets reports in its April issue. Both set records. ...

JPMorgan Chase, which shared the No. 1 spot with Citigroup in 2008, was the No. 1 underwriter in 2009, increasing its fees by 18 percent to $1.33 billion, according to Bloomberg Markets’ annual ranking of the best-paid investment banks. Citigroup slipped to No. 2 after a five-year reign as the top firm, with its fees growing by 8 percent.

Now that the appetite for riskier securities has returned, bankers predict that their fat fees from selling junk debt will continue in 2010, particularly if mergers and acquisitions increase. ...

Bond Sales to Decline

Corporate bond sales may decline in 2010 because last year’s record offerings reduced the need to refinance maturing debt, says Peter Aherne, head of North American capital markets at Citigroup in New York. He predicts the issuance of investment-grade bonds by nonfinancial companies will shrink by 20 percent.

The recovery of the commercial paper market may prompt companies to cut back on bonds and issue more short-term debt, which is typically cheaper, to finance themselves, he says.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aVsvMbxbdbyA&pos=14

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I wonder how this junk bond market is any different from the market of 25% years ago - when Michael Milken bilked so many people on his boondoggle investment scheme.

[Po_d Mainiac]

10. Who would buy this crap

other than banksters trading this shit back and forth (using 0% discount window funding) between themselves.

[Demeter]

32. Mike Millkin, Pick Up the White Courtesy Phone!

[Hugin]

38. Has anyone here looked at the daily chart for 'C' recently?

It looks like a toothbrush... Seriously.

Volatility, anyone?

[Festivito]

7. Debt: 03/03/2010 12,508,944,297,560.56 (DOWN 10,479,427,924.83) (Wed)

(Up a bit. Up a lot lately. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Great day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,026,656,594,435.31 + 4,482,287,703,125.25
UP 1,678,102,940.09 + DOWN 12,157,530,864.92

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,884,638 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,497.14.
A family of three owes $121,491.42. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 7,745,162,135.68.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,163,441,423.79.
The average for the last 28 days would be 5,532,258,668.34.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 104 reports in 154 days of FY2010 averaging 5.76B$ per report, 3.89B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,054 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/03/2010 12,508,944,297,560.56 BHO (UP 1,882,067,248,647.48 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,599,115,294,048.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,419,981,054,076.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********

185,849,803,805.86 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4293197&mesg_id=4293224

[Festivito]

48. Debt: 03/04/2010 12,545,490,013,032.29 (UP 36,545,715,471.73) (Thu)

(Up a lot. Up a lot lately. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,061,072,722,591.94 + 4,484,417,290,440.35
UP 34,416,128,156.63 + UP 2,129,587,315.10

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,893,278 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,614.32.
A family of three owes $121,842.96. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 9,953,127,150.41.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,635,418,100.27.
The average for the last 28 days would be 7,109,376,536.01.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 105 reports in 155 days of FY2010 averaging 6.05B$ per report, 4.10B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,053 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 20.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/04/2010 12,545,490,013,032.29 BHO (UP 1,918,612,964,119.21 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,635,661,009,520.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,496,879,151,451.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********

220,322,509,249.74 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4294815&mesg_id=4294835

[ozymandius]

9. Revisiting “The Obama Economy”

The rhetoric you use to make your point says a lot about a) the strength of your argument; 2) you personally.

There is no better example of this then some of the OpEds about the current and past Presidents. They are rife with bad logic, political animus, and sheer partisanship. I don’t care id they are trashing George W. Bush or Barack H. Obama, they can be revealing about their writer.

The issue isn’t whether they are right or wrong; Hell, I’m wrong all the time. It is whether they are an honest broker of information — or deceptive weasels.

For example, on March 3, 2009 — 1 year ago — the WSJ OPEd blamed the market collapse on the newly elected President. They argued that the Dow was issuing a referendum on Obama ...

Since that column, the Dow has rallied near 70%. Surely, if Obama was to blame for the Dow’s collapse during his first 5 weeks in office, then he most certainly must deserves an equal amount of credit for the Dow’s stupendous performance a year later?!? Somehow, the WSJ has never got around to giving a parallel credit equal to the blame they doled out.

Of course, blaming any President for a market rally or fall is a mug’s game. Market’s go up and down due to many factors; President’s have far less control over the economy than is widely believed.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/revisiting-the-obama-economy/

---

Presidents tend to hitch a ride on the economic train rather than control the engine's throttle. That is an important distinction to make when assessing performance. When Presidents turn a blind eye to the economic circumstances of the time, that often means that the driver is the Fed. Treasury defers to the Federal Reserve, too. The President receives the credit when things are good. Conversely, the President is pilloried when the economy is bad. The latter being the case - Obama, just as any President, is obliged to dust off his Economics textbook and get to work. I feel that Obama has been disinterested in Economics. Everything so far has been Geithner and Summers with Bernanke.

That is why we find ourselves in a horrible dilemma. Obama is associated with giving everything to the Banksters. Foreclosures keep rising to the tune of 10k per day. Unemployment is catastrophically high. Prices keep going up on essential items like food and energy despite their fairy tale, filtered status that excludes these factors from core consumer expenses. Information that is difficult to gauge, but we know through rhetorical information indicates that many people, even the employed, are not able to keep up with the cost of living because of stagnant wages and inflation on essentials.

But I digress.

Ritholtz examines the average valuation of stocks - as is fair - during the early phase of the Obama administration. Oddly and erroneously, many people make the stock market tantamount to the overall economy. That idea is very important to remember. Obviously, as referenced in Ritholtz's criticism of biased reporting, writers of such drivel capitalize on the fallacy so popularly held among those so unsophisticated as to believe that the Dow is somehow equivalent to CPI, employment numbers, payroll reports and the massive aggregate: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Of course there are other immensely valuable measures.

Ritholtz has touched upon an important idea in writing this piece. But, just like his blog's namesake, I want to take a moment to revisit "the big picture".

[AnneD]

11. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. Thank God it's Friday. I am getting together with some of my Nurse gal pals. I am sure some limes will be killed in the process. Gee what a week. Taks testing (and at our school-tons of observers), we elected a slate of candidates, folks were told via the local rag that the school district would be having a budget short fall and would be laying off folks (colour me surprised.....not). And then there was the clinic. It was the clinic from hell-stomach viruses, fights and 2 CPS cases. Lord give me strength.

But we will get together this afternoon and laugh our asses off and talk the state of the industry, our schools and our lives. This is always a meeting you want to attend. Hope you all have a release valve too. It is the difference between an existence and a life.

Happy hunting and watch for the bears.

[Demeter]

15. My Release Is the Weekend Economist

It's Friday, and that means we need a theme again.

Anybody have anything to celebrate, commemorate, berate? any particular musical talent or style to indulge?

Don't make me bring out The Mouse...Tansy will have a kitten. Of course, with company, she may not be around to object....

[Tansy_Gold]

33. Objection! Objection!

My mother arrived for a four-day visit yesterday.

I won't be around here much, but that doesn't mean you can just bulldozer in another DISNEY event!!!!!!!!!


:hi:


Only kidding. Feel free. I may pop in early mornings occasionally, but not much else.

Ah, the sun is coming up over Superstition Mountain, so it's time to get ready for coffee, maybe a drive into the mountains.

Have at it, friends!



Tansy Gold, who doesn't mind kittens but isn't overly crazy about cats

[Dr.Phool]

39. Saw the Moody Blues last night.

Drummer Graeme Edge said it was his birthday. He's 69 fucking years old! He said, "I've lived through the sixties twice. Do you know what that means? Viagra. Although your drug of choice changes, It's still Sex, and Drugs, and Rock & Roll". He didn't get around to bad for an old fart.

Kind of hard to believe this was 43 years ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9muzyOd4Lh8


And this only 40 years ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OlEkOjmUXE

[AnneD]

40. Moody Blues sounds good to me...

even some blues. I sure did enjoy Johnny this weekend. Brought back some memories. I am playing Home of the Blues now.

I guess the blues are what folks are thinking about, what with the economy and tax time rolling around the bend. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

12. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.568 Change +0.007 (+0.01%)

Daily Sound Bites 03.05

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-03-05-0953-Daily_Sound_Bites_03_05.html



...more...

USDJPY Pulls Back From Near Extreme Levels with Daily Shorts Leaping 26%

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/carry_trade_basket/2010-03-05-1054-USDJPY_Pulls_Back_From_Near.html



USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.39 as nearly 70% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.50 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% lower than yesterday and 3.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.1% higher than yesterday and 43.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% weaker than yesterday and 12.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.



...more...

[DemReadingDU]

14. Video - Goldman Sucks

This video is a visualization of Matt Taibbi's "The Great American Bubble Machine" It has been cut down slightly to fit the 10 minute time constraints.

video appx 10 minutes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SFywA_LQuU

Matt Taibbi's "The Great American Bubble Machine"
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/inside_the_great_american_bubble_machine

[Demeter]

18. Supertax pulls in £2.5bn for UK Treasury

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fad98c36-27d8-11df-9598-00144feabdc0.html

The supertax on bank bonuses will reap more than £2.5bn for the Treasury, giving the UK government an unexpectedly large windfall to spend ahead of the general election, a Financial Times survey of 16 global banks has found.

Government insiders predict that the receipts of £2.5bn would exceed by about £1.5bn the total tax take from a bigger bank bonus pool anticipated before the supertax was imposed.

The £1.5bn is nearly three times the £550m Alistair Darling, chancellor, predicted in December when he announced the payroll surcharge on all bonuses above £25,000. The supertax prompted some banks to cut their bonus pools.

Mr Darling is likely to unveil plans to use the extra funds for “small targeted measures” when he delivers his budget later this month, the insiders said. These could include efforts to tackle youth unemployment or to boost “industries of the future” – two key themes in the Labour party’s election manifesto.

The UK and France are the only major economies to impose a special bonus tax, but the idea has gained support elsewhere.

Two US senators are pushing legislation for a 50 per cent tax on all 2009 bonuses greater than $400,000 paid by institutions in the US that have received taxpayer aid. The FT surveyed the five largest UK banks and 11 global banks with large London presences.

Eleven estimated they would pay a total of more than £1.5bn. Some gave estimates on condition that their individual sums would not be disclosed.

Among the banks that have publicly disclosed their bonus tax expenses, Barclays (£225m), HSBC (£235m), Royal Bank of Scotland (£208m) and Deutsche Bank (£204m) are facing the biggest bills. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Credit Suisse and UBS declined to provide figures.

The FT estimates that the latter group will pay at least £1bn collectively, based on the size of their announced payrolls. The FT totals do not include bonus payments from smaller banks.

Government insiders said the FT’s figures are at the high end of the £2bn-£2.5bn in gross receipts the Treasury expects.

Bankers angry about the tax had predicted the government would take in more than £4bn. But the tax and public sentiment opposed to big bonuses had a significant impact as some top bankers turned down large bonuses and many banks devoted a smaller share of their revenues to compensation.

“Clearly there has been the kind of restraint the exchequer was looking for,” said Rob McIvor, spokesman for the Association for Financial Markets in Europe, which represents the securities industry.

[Demeter]

19. Moody’s downgrades Abu Dhabi companies

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bd9f16dc-2789-11df-b0f1-00144feabdc0.html

Moody’s downgraded government groups in oil-rich Abu Dhabi on Thursday, after reviewing state-linked entities following neighbouring Dubai’s $22bn debt restructuring.

The troubles at Dubai World, the debt-laden conglomerate owned by Abu Dhabi’s northern neighbour, has rattled financial markets and led many people to question the level of government support that state-linked conglomerates in the United Arab Emirates can command.

“Dubai has changed the dynamic of how investors look at government-related entities,” said Nish Popat, head of fixed income at ING Investment Management in Dubai. “People will now look at each entity on a case by case basis.”

The downgrades included leading companies involved in Abu Dhabi’s ambitious development plans such as Mubadala, the sovereign investment fund with stakes in the Carlyle Group and General Electric, Tourist Development & Investment Company, which is developing the $27bn Saadiyat Island project, and International Petroleum Investment Company.

The credit ratings of Mubadala and IPIC were downgraded by one notch to Aa3, and TDIC was downgraded two notches to A1, because of its higher exposure to large, early-stage real estate projects.

While Abu Dhabi has “formally assured Moody’s that it fully and unconditionally stands behind these entities for any debt” the ratings agency “has decided to introduce a moderate distinction between their ratings and that of the sovereign given that no explicit formal agreement exists obligating the government to support them under all circumstances”.

In addition, Taqa, Dolphin Energy, Aldar and Etisalat, the federally owned telecoms company, were also downgraded by Moody’s. Real estate developer Aldar was the only company to be downgraded to junk status and remains on a negative outlook.

Abu Dhabi’s Department of Finance said, in an e-mailed statement, that it stood fully and unconditionally behind its government-related entities, and “obviously disagree with the reasoning involved in a number of Moody’s decisions, especially those concerning TDIC, Mubadala, and IPIC”.

Mubadala and IPIC are trying to raise about $2.5bn each in loans, and are expected to pay about 150 basis points above the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, in spite of the downgrades, said a senior regional banker. “The downgrades had been fairly well-signalled . . . so it’s no real surprise,” the banker said. “Credit committees are asking more questions than they did before Dubai World  . . . but the markets still have appetite for Abu Dhabi debt.”

[Demeter]

20. Court blocks separate Madoff fund claims

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bd2adf0a-2780-11df-b0f1-00144feabdc0.html

Victims of the Bernard Madoff scandal who invested through the $1.4bn Luxembourg-based LuxAlpha fund set up by UBS cannot sue the Swiss bank and auditor Ernst & Young directly, a Luxembourg court has ruled.

Instead, they must file claims via the liquidators of the fund, a judge said on Thursday in a test case involving 10 investors.

More than 100 lawsuits have been filed against UBS, which served as custodian for the LuxAlpha fund, claiming it neglected its duties by delegating control of the assets to Mr Madoff.

The 27-page ruling is a blow to the investors because it limits their ability to recover assets from UBS as individuals and is likely to make it harder for them to press their claims that they were misled as to the nature of the fund, lawyers said.

UBS, which denies wrongdoing, benefits from the ruling because it will only have to defend itself in the single suit filed by LuxAlpha’s administrator, rather than myriad claims.

“UBS welcomes the clarification of Luxembourg law as expressed by today’s decisions of the Luxembourg Commercial Court,” Tatiana Togni, a spokeswoman for the bank, said in an e-mail. UBS shares closed up 2.2 per cent at SFr15.86.

Ernst & Young declined to comment

François Brouxel, attorney for some of the investors, said the ruling was “disappointing . . . but we are going to continue the combat and lodge an appeal”. He said his clients intended to press their argument in Luxembourg’s appeals court and at the European Union level if necessary. The case could also have broad implications. When Mr Madoff was arrested in December 2008, investors worldwide thought they had $65bn invested in his Ponzi scheme. Many of them had invested through hedge funds as well as retail funds, including several set up in Luxembourg.

The Luxembourg court ruling is particularly disheartening to LuxAlpha investors who had hoped to argue that they were not properly informed that Mr Madoff would be holding their assets.

“Our clients bought shares based on a prospectus that was totally wrong. The fund can’t make that argument. Our legal position is better than the fund liquidators’,” said Erik Bomans, an attorney who represents a group of LuxAlpha investors.

[Demeter]

22. GIC incurs SFr5.5bn paper loss on UBS

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ccac00d4-2781-11df-b0f1-00144feabdc0.html

Singapore’s main sovereign wealth fund will on Friday incur an unrealised loss of about SFr5.5bn ($5.1bn) on a SFr10.97bn investment in UBS, the troubled Swiss bank which has received a series of emergency cash injections.

The Government of Singapore Investment Corp, which manages assets of more than $300bn, declined to comment on the paper loss, but has previously said it plans to hold on to the UBS shares...

UBS ISN'T OUT OF THE WOODS YET. WHY AREN'T OUR BANKSTERS BEING SIMILARLY HARRIED? A LITTLE INTERNATIONAL MUSCLE MIGHT BE HELPFUL, G20!

[Demeter]

21. Lloyd’s of London hits at ‘difficult’ India

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34971214-27bf-11df-863d-00144feabdc0.html

India is among the most protectionist countries in the insurance industry in the fast-growing Asian region, the chairman of Lloyd’s of London said, in a forthright criticism of the country’s regulatory system.

India, which imposes a 26 per cent ownership limit on foreign investors in insurance companies, is reviewing raising this to 49 per cent but legislation has become bogged down in parliament...

GIVEN THE NON-PRODUCTIVE, PARASITIC NATURE OF INSURANCE BUSINESS, I CAN FIND NO FAULT WITH THIS POLICY

[Demeter]

24. SWFs join Pru underwriter syndicate

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eccfa520-27de-11df-9598-00144feabdc0.html

The three banks backing Prudential’s $35.5bn bid for AIG’s Asian arm said on Thursday that the sovereign wealth funds of Qatar and Singapore had joined 30 banks in the syndicate to underwrite the UK insurer’s $20bn rights issue.

The Pru, which announced its agreement to buy AIA on Monday, needs to raise the cash from its shareholders to fund the lion’s share of the deal. The group will also issue to AIG $5.5bn of stock, $3bn of convertible notes and $2bn of preferred shares...

I NEVER REALIZED HOW INSURANCE WAS SO CLOSELY TIED TO ROBBERY UNTIL LATELY. PERHAPS BECAUSE I HAVEN'T HAD ANY WORTH MENTIONING FOR SO LONG...

[Demeter]

25. Pandit blames Citi’s woes on short selling

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f988dc0-2796-11df-b0f1-00144feabdc0.html

Vikram Pandit, chief executive of Citigroup, on Thursday blamed short selling rather than any self-inflicted weakness for the bank’s near-collapse in 2008 and thanked taxpayers for its government bail-out.

His comments, made in testimony to the bipartisan Congressional Oversight Panel, will be disputed by many analysts who identified fundamental problems with Citi’s balance sheet...

OF COURSE, PANDIT. IT'S THE SHORT-SELLERS, AND THEIR WHIMS :sarcasm:

[Roland99]

28. I have the perfect cure for people like that

[Demeter]

30. Pandit, or the Short Sellers?

[Roland99]

34. Mostly Pandit

but you do trigger a good point in my mind that the markets are too easily manipulated and offer too many ways to game the system. The day of people just investing for long-term purposes is LONG gone and will likely never return.

[Demeter]

26. Manchester United owners set to cut Goldman ties

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/beb013a2-2705-11df-8c08-00144feabdc0.html

The Glazer family, owners of Manchester United, is considering ending its relationship with Goldman Sachs because of the role of Jim O’Neill, the bank’s chief economist, in efforts to take the club off their hands.

Mr O’Neill, a lifelong United supporter and former board member, is spearheading the “Red Knights” group of financiers who met in London this week over a proposal to buy the club for a sum in excess of £1bn.

Mr O’Neill’s role has drawn Lloyd Blankfein, the bank’s chairman and chief executive, into the saga because Goldman Sachs was one of the syndicate of banks helping the club with its recent £500m bond issue.

According to people with knowledge of the situation, Joel Glazer, the family member most involved in United, called Mr Blankfein following comments by Mr O’Neill to a Bloomberg reporter in January in the wake of the bond issue.

Mr O’Neill, who is well known to United manager Sir Alex Ferguson and chief executive David Gill, was quoted as saying: “There’s too much leverage going on with Man United. It’s not a good thing. I’m not a buyer of the bond. I value my long-term support for Man United better than anything else.”

One person close to the situation said assurances from the bank that Mr O’Neill’s views on the club were his own business had failed to satisfy the family.

The family is now making clear that Mr O’Neill’s actions have jeopardised the chances of the club putting more corporate finance work with Goldman Sachs, the person said.

Goldman Sachs declined to comment. Mr O’Neill stressed last night he was acting in a “personal capacity”.

The family’s irritation with the Red Knights campaign was further inflamed on Wednesday when Mr Gill launched a forthright attack on Keith Harris, executive chairman of investment bank Seymour Pierce. Mr Harris, who has masterminded several football club takeovers, is part of the Red Knights campaign calling on United fans to boycott matches to undermine the Glazers’ ownership.

Mr Gill said: “ Harris will go anywhere that there’s a bit of publicity around ... but if you look at his track record in football, it is not a lot to write home about.” Mr Harris could not be reached for comment.

GOLDMAN'S WOULD SELL THEIR GRANDMOTHERS FOR THE RIGHT PRICE, ESPECIALLY IF THEY WERE TERMINALLY ILL.

[Dr.Phool]

35. The Glazers have too much money, and too much time on their hands.

They own the Tampa Bay Bucs also. Seems like they fuck up everything they touch, and make a lot of money doing it.

[Demeter]

36. That's Because They Use Golden Sacks

point made

[Demeter]

27. Obama sends ‘Volcker rule’ to Congress

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/75a505f4-2706-11df-8c08-00144feabdc0.html

WHERE IT IS NEVER HEARD FROM, AGAIN. :crickets:

[Demeter]

29. Greece prepared to turn to IMF

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3f19f0c-26ad-11df-bd0c-00144feabdc0.html

Greece is prepared to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help if its European neighbours fail to provide the financial assistance it wants after announcing the toughest spending cuts in decades...

RATHER LIKE SHERRIF BART IN 'BLAZING SADDLES":



Bart: Hold it! Next man makes a move, the nigger gets it!

Olson Johnson: Hold it, men. He's not bluffing.

Dr. Sam Johnson: Listen to him, men. He's just crazy enough to do it!

Bart: Drop it! Or I swear I'll blow this nigger's head all over this town!

Bart: Oh, lo'dy, lo'd, he's desp'it! Do what he sayyyy, do what he sayyyy!



Harriet Johnson: Isn't anybody going to help that poor man?

Dr. Sam Johnson: Hush, Harriet! That's a sure way to get him killed!

Bart: Oooh! He'p me, he'p me! Somebody he'p me! He'p me! He'p me! He'p me!

Bart: Shut up!



Bart: Ooh, baby, you are so talented!



Bart: And they are so *dumb*!

[tclambert]

41. Consumer borrowing up in January after 11 declines

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer borrowing broke a record stretch of declines with a small increase in January as a boost in auto loans offset continued weakness in credit card borrowing.

The small gain, the first in nearly a year, could be a signal that Americans are regaining confidence in the economy.

The Federal Reserve reported Friday that consumer borrowing rose by $4.96 billion in January, surprising economists who were looking for borrowing to decline by $4.5 billion. It was the first gain after a record 11 straight declines and it was the largest increase since July 2008.

________________________________________________

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-borrowing-up-in-apf-2862208006.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

I don't know if this good or bad, but it seemed significant enough to be worth posting.

[TheWatcher]

44. Lots Of Celebrating, Back-Slapping, and Silly Euphoria going on today in the Propaganda Lounges

outside of this tiny little thread of reality.

As I said, the number would be bullshit, but it really didn't matter either way. There was going to be a blow-off party today anyway and this was the most irrelevant Unemployment number ever as far as Wall Street was concerned.

People are even chowing down the "February Snowstorm" meme and regurgitating it like they are some sort of savvy economic analysts.

This is just insane.

The Country is insane.

They are suffering from a terminal mental illness that cannot be broken.

Like I said earlier in the week, the "unaffected" are simply going to continue to ignore everything that might have ANYTHING to do with reality, and get drunk off of Fantasy Kool-Aid Paradigms so they don't have to deal with anything.

We've lost them, and they aren't going to come back until they are somehow affected by the ACTUAL reality that pervades over everything, whether they choose to believe in it or not.

Days like today are when the mocking, giggling, snickering, smug posturing, and insulting is at it's loudest. But that isn't what is so disheartening. I've gotten used to that, and I refuse to take it personally anymore, because that's like taking The Borg personally.

The deeper we collectively as a country slip into this mental illness, this Cocoon of denial, the less likely that any real change will be able to take place, and THAT is the real problem

The Criminals that run our country and our government, are going to keep this up until they can't. We do not matter to them, and they look down on us with disdain and view us as a tiresome irritant, because they wish they just didn't have to deal with us at all.

They aren't doing anything to solve the problems or give the people proper and lawful representation.

And we are, collectively as a country, just sitting back and letting them run wild, while at the same time pretending that progress is being made, representation is occurring, and we are taking our country back.

I suppose, in a way, this is what 1930's Germany was like.

And a hearty "shut the fuck up" and harsh bitch slap in advance to those who might wander in here from the Propaganda Lounges looking for their daily chuckle, and scream that this is another "Obama is Hitler" meme. Take your gurgling, babbling hysteria and go worship Cable TV News before you hurt yourself.

What I am saying is that anyone who studies that particular era would note the similarities in disconnect and delusion regarding the populations perception of their government and what it was doing, and what it was ACTUALLY occurring at the time.

It was called "Superior Indifference".

It's "Superior Ignorance" this time around.

I know all of you who post here daily have heard this sermon before, and you're probably tired of hearing it (Which is understandable). I'm certainly tired of giving it.

I still keep hoping that at some point, there will be a mass awakening by We The People out of this hypnosis that has gripped them like a helpless villager in the clutches of an Iron Golem.

But the problem is, the more obvious and blatant things seem to get, the deeper into delusion they go, and the farther down the rabbit hole they travel.

IT SHOULD NOT TAKE A COMPLETE COLLAPSE for "The Unaffected" to wake up. But unfortunately, the way things are going, and the stark determination by most of the population to keep buying into the lie, that is indeed what it will take before the awakening occurs.

The problem is, by the time that happens IT WILL ALREADY BE TOO LATE.

As long as there are cheeseburgers to Gobble, fast food to scarf, American idol to watch, plenty of Sports and other entertainment distractions to engorge, shopping for useless trinkets to be done, gas in the car, roof over the head, lights on in the house, "The Unaffected" will continue to Sell Out the Fake Paradise Theater of The Grand Illusion.

Even worse, they view people like us, those who can see what is REALLY going on, as the enemy, and a threat to the new found "victory" of "Prosperity" and "Recovery" that is going on.

It is only when they can't get a ticket to "The Show" that they will realize that once you can't get back into the theater, you are done. And you won't be able to get back in for a very long time. Possibly EVER.

So much time is spent on useless Political Theater that is has caused a great blindness to two simple facts.

1. Obama won an Election.

2. We The People, thus far, have won NOTHING.

But hey, The Dow is above 10,500, The Government Propaganda sounded great, so pass the Kool-Aid and bring on the Dancing Pundits for our weekend conditioning,

LET'S PARTY!!!!!

:party: :toast: :beer: :crazy:

America spells competition
Join us in our blind ambition
Get yourself a brand new motor car

Someday soon we'll stop to ponder
What on Earth's this spell we're under?
We made the grade and still we wonder
Who the hell we are

-Styx The Grand Illusion

[fan of the arts]

45. Health care, regulation, real govt reports: None of it ever occurs until war crimes

are addressed. A nation that allows the worst crimes in history to go unchecked is incapable of addressing other, lesser types of crimes. Still, everyday people scream the brainwashed heads off about some action to be taken in some area like regulating the markets. I say it again for emphasis: none of it is going to happen unless we become a nation of laws again.

[TheWatcher]

47. "None of it is going to happen unless we become a nation of laws again."

It really is that simple.

NOTHING is going to happen until we become a Nation Of Laws again.

[saigon68]

49. A nation that allows the worst crimes in history to go unchecked

By giving The Bush Crime family & the likes of "deviant" Cheney a pass, is on the road to violent right wing fascism.