STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday March 15

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday March 15, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 12, 2010

Dow... 10,624.69 +12.85 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq... 2,367.66 -0.80 (-0.03%)
S&P 500... 1,149.99 -0.25 (-0.02%)
Gold future... 1,107 -1.20 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.70 -0.03 (-0.67%)
30-Year Bond 4.63 -0.04 (-0.75%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Empire Manufacturing Survey Mar
Briefing.com 22.0
Consensus 21.45
Prior 24.91

09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Dec
Briefing.com $42.50B
Consensus $50.0B
Prior $63.3B

09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb
Briefing.com 72.8%
Consensus 72.6%
Prior 72.6%

09:15 Industrial Production Feb
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.0%
Prior 0.9%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls below $81 amid weak US crude demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $81 a barrel Monday in Asia amid investor concerns flagging U.S. crude demand doesn't justify the recent rally. ...

Oil prices jumped from $69 early last month on expectations an improving U.S. economy would bring crude demand up with it. But oil consumption has lagged, and prices have stalled in the low $80s for the last week.

"U.S. demand for oil is falling," energy consultant Stephen Schork said in a report. "Until we see a decrease in unemployment and an increase in consumer confidence we will remain on guard for a double dip recession." ...

In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil was up 0.3 cent at $2.097 a gallon, and gasoline dropped 0.2 cent to $2.253 a gallon. Natural gas declined 3.2 cents to $4.37 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Senate financial reform bill boosts Fed: sources

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve would gain new powers over non-bank financial firms and keep much of its authority over banks under a new bill to be unveiled on Monday by the Senate's architect of financial reform. ...

Not only would a new government watchdog for financial consumers be housed within the Fed, it would also retain much of its present authority over large bank holding companies and gain new authority over selected non-bank financial firms.

Sources said the Fed would also continue supervising smaller, state-chartered banks now in the Fed system -- a change from an earlier proposal that would have transferred those banks to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. supervision.

The plans could yet change, sources said, with weeks to go before Congress completes its long debate on regulatory reform after the worst U.S. financial crisis in generations tipped the economy into recession and shook markets worldwide. ...

In addition, the bill would empower the Fed to supervise non-bank firms designated as "systemically important" by the council of regulators. Before its bailout, former insurance giant American International Group (AIG) would likely have fit into that category, for instance.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100315/ts_nm/us_financial_regulation_dodd

---

This has 'irrelevant' written all over it. Regulatory reform means nothing when it is placed in the care of an organization, The Fed, that guards its secrets religiously. As for consumer protection: lip service. The Fed was tasked with aspects of consumer protection over the past thirty years with rampant greed and wealth destruction among the middle classes, while overseeing wealth concentration among the few.

[Po_d Mainiac]

12. We can expect more payday loan-sharking

:donut:

[ozymandius]

4. World markets slip after mixed US economic reports

...
Major Asian bourses were down as much as 1 percent after a lackluster session on Friday. Oil prices dropped below $81 a barrel and the dollar gained against the euro and fell against the yen.

Investors found few reasons to buy after U.S. economic data released Friday painted an uneven picture of recovery in the world's largest economy. Although retail sales were better than expected last month, a weaker report about consumer sentiment provided little hope the economy, driven largely by consumer spending, was on the verge of a quick turnaround. ...

As trading got under way in Europe, markets in Germany and Britain were off by about 0.2 percent, while France's index shed 0.4 percent. U.S. markets were headed for a lower open as stock futures lost ground.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average finished little changed at 10,751.98.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 0.6 percent at 21,079.10 and South Korea's benchmark shed 0.8 percent to 1,649.50.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100315/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

5. Commercial Mortgage Debt Rallies as TALF Ending: Credit Markets

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Commercial mortgage-backed bond returns are accelerating as the Federal Reserve ends support for the $700 billion market, showing growing confidence that loan defaults won’t derail the economic recovery.

The securities, derived from debt on skyscrapers, shopping malls and hotels, returned 7.41 percent through March 12, compared with 2.55 percent in the fourth quarter, according to a Barclays Capital index. Top-rated securities are yielding about 3.03 percentage points more than Treasuries, the lowest spread since August 2008, according to Morgan Stanley data.

Commercial mortgage-backed securities are rallying as the Fed’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to buy older debt draws to a close. The jobless rate is holding at 9.7 percent, indicating employment may be stabilizing. Bond prices were pummeled during the credit crisis and even in “pretty upsetting” scenarios, the safest debt isn’t likely to lose money, said Scott Simon of Pacific Investment Management Co. ...

TALF provides Fed loans to purchase top-rated securities, enabling investors to boost returns with the borrowed cash. About $11.4 billion of older commercial real estate debt has been bought through TALF since the program started in July, according to Morgan Stanley. So-called legacy bonds are those that were issued before Jan. 1, 2009. ....

There have been no new sales of commercial-mortgage backed securities this year. The portion of TALF for newly issued CMBS was extended through June. The final round of a separate TALF program for asset-backed securities, or bonds tied to consumer and small-business loans, was held earlier this month.

Sales of CMBS plummeted to $11.15 billion in 2008 from a record $232.4 billion in 2007 as the credit market seized up, Bloomberg data show. Even with U.S. government aid, only $3.04 billion of the bonds were sold last year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afHIoEVq428A&pos=3

[Juneboarder]

18. Are they trying to paint a "pretty picture" here?

I mean, everything I read says the next collapse is the commercial real estate market, and here is this article that says things are getting better. It's as if a feeling of deja vu overcome me with (thinking back to the collapse of our housing market)...

[ozymandius]

6. Goldman Sachs Demands Derivatives Collateral It Won’t Dish Out

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., two of the biggest traders of over-the- counter derivatives, are exploiting their growing clout in that market to secure cheap funding in addition to billions in revenue from the business.

Both New York-based banks are demanding unequal arrangements with hedge-fund firms, forcing them to post more cash collateral to offset risks on trades while putting up less on their own wagers. At the end of December this imbalance furnished Goldman Sachs with $110 billion, according to a filing. That’s money it can reinvest in higher-yielding assets. ...

Goldman Sachs’s $110 billion net collateral balance in December was almost three times the amount it had attracted from depositors at its regulated bank subsidiaries. The collateral could earn the bank an annual return of $439 million, assuming it’s financed at the current Fed funds effective rate of 0.15 percent and that half is reinvested at the same rate and half in two-year Treasury notes yielding 0.948 percent. ...

The five biggest U.S. commercial banks in the derivatives market -- Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. -- account for 97 percent of the notional value of derivatives held in the banking industry, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

In credit-default swaps, the world’s five biggest dealers are JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG and London-based Barclays Plc, according to a report by Deutsche Bank Research that cited the European Central Bank and filings with the SEC.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=amKrFe4u6U80&pos=10

[ozymandius]

7. The Big Picture: Lehman News Round Up

“Dick Fuld is going to be bankrupted and he’s going to spend the rest of his life in court fighting legal battles. There maybe others forced to do the same.”

-Dick Bove of Rochedale Securities. Bove had all nine volumes of the examiner’s report printed and bound. (Barrons)

As it turned out, Lehman Brothers was the firm that deserve to die. The author of the book The Murder of Lehman Brothers asked me to do for a review of it — I politely declined, saying his title was wrong — it wasn’t murder, it was suicide.

Turns out that was more true than I realized.

In addition to tarnishing what little name Fuld had, the tentacles of the Valukas Report are reaching to the NY Fed and Geithner, Ernst & Young, even Linklaters, a law firm in the UK that blessed Repo 105 for the British subsidiary of LEH as kosher.

As you can see by the headlines below, the breadth of Lehman stories is rather substantial. If you want to delve deeper, these are as good a place to start digging...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/lehman-news-round-up/

---

We might add these names: Timothy Geithner, Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke?

[ozymandius]

8. Frank Partnoy: Lehman Examiner Punted on Valuation

By Frank Partnoy, Professor of Law and Finance University of San Diego School of Law and author of Fiasco, Infectious Greed, and The Match King

The buzz on the Lehman bankruptcy examiner’s report has focused on Repo 105, for good reason. That scheme is one powerful example of how the balance sheets of major Wall Street banks are fiction. It also shows why Congress must include real accounting reform in its financial legislation, or risk another collapse. (If you have 8 minutes to kill, here is my recent talk on the off-balance sheet problem, from the Roosevelt Institute financial conference.)

But an even more troubling section of the Lehman report is not Volume 3 on Repo 105. It is Volume 2, on Valuation. The Valuation section is 500 pages of utterly terrifying reading. It shows that, even eighteen months after Lehman’s collapse, no one – not the bankruptcy examiner, not Lehman’s internal valuation experts, not Ernst and Young, and certainly not the regulators – could figure out what many of Lehman’s assets and liabilities were worth. It shows Lehman was too complex to do anything but fail.

The report cites extensive evidence of valuation problems. Check out page 577, where the report concludes that Lehman’s high credit default swap valuations were reasonable because Citigroup’s marks were ONLY 8% lower than Lehman’s. 8%? And since when are Citigroup’s valuations the objective benchmark?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/frank-partnoy-lehman-examiner-punted-on-valuation.html

[DemReadingDU]

14. Auditor Could Face Liability Over Lehman

3/15/10 Auditor Could Face Liability Over Lehman

On Monday March 15, 2010, 8:05 am EDT

Lehman Brothers may have collapsed a year and a half ago, but fallout from its demise has created a potential legal liability for its former accounting firm, Ernst & Young, The New York Times's Michael J. de la Merced writes.

A 2,200-page report by a court-appointed examiner, Anton R. Valukas, on Lehman's collapse has plenty of criticism for various players involved with the investment bank. But some of his harshest words are reserved for Ernst & Young and the accounting maneuvers it permitted.

Mr. Valukas writes that he found enough evidence to support at least three claims against the accounting firm for not looking more closely into Lehman's use of questionable accounting. Lehman used the tactics, known inside the bank as Repo 105, to hide as much as $50 billion off its balance sheet to temporarily reduce its debt levels.

His report concludes that sufficient evidence exists to bring claims of malpractice against the accounting firm on the grounds of failing to disclose or investigate the technique. Legal and accounting experts say that Ernst & Young could now face potentially damaging civil litigation by private plaintiffs or the Securities and Exchange Commission - or even criminal charges by the Justice Department.

The examiner's report has again led financial experts to question how accounting firms can fail to closely scrutinize their clients' bookkeeping. Ernst & Young's actions came after the passage of laws like the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 in the wake of the Enron and WorldCom accounting scandals and the collapse of Arthur Andersen for its role in those frauds.

Ernst & Young itself paid an $8.5 million fine to the S.E.C. in December for its role in allowing another client, Bally Total Fitness, to avoid restating its earnings in 2002 when accounting rules changed.

Charlie Perkins, an Ernst & Young spokesman, said in a statement that the firm's last full audit of Lehman was for the 2007 fiscal year and that it stood by its results. "After an exhaustive investigation the examiner made no findings in his report that Lehman's assets or liabilities were improperly valued or accounted for incorrectly in Lehman's November 30, 2007 financial statements," he said.

"One thing Sarbanes-Oxley reminded us of is that technical compliance isn't enough," said Lawrence A. Cunningham, a law professor at George Washington University. "Accounting firms need to be sitting back the whole time and thinking, is this a fair presentation?"

He added that any large judgment against the accounting firm, let alone tough regulatory action, could prove enormously damaging in terms of both money and future business.

"If a breach of liability is established here, this could be disastrous in my view," he said.

more...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Auditor-Could-Face-Liability-nytimes-1274710043.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

[DemReadingDU]

17. "Materially Misleading": Will Lehman Execs or Ernst & Young Face Criminal Charges?

clink link for video

3/15/10 "Materially Misleading": Will Lehman Execs or Ernst & Young Face Criminal Charges?

Lehman's bankruptcy examiner issued a damning (and extensive) report on Friday that concluded Lehman executives employed "materially misleading" accounting gimmicks in the months prior to its September 2008 bankruptcy. The examiner, former Federal prosecutor Anton Valukas, also found that former CEO Richard Fuld was "at least grossly negligent in causing Lehman Brothers to file misleading periodic reports."

Using a legal but controversial accounting practice called a Repo 105, Lehman "reverse engineered the firm's net leverage ratio for public consumption" to the tune of $50 billion, according to Valukas.

The report raised a number of questions, including:

* -- How common is the type of fraud Lehman is alleged to have engaged in?
* -- Were Lehman's regulators, including the NY Fed and the SEC, complicit or just asleep at the switch?
* -- How can more financial regulation prevent future abuses when existing laws, most notably Sarbanes-Oxley, failed to stop Lehman?
* -- Instead of vilifying the shorts, like David Einhorn, shouldn't media pundits and regulators pay them some respect, or at least apologize?

John Carney, managing editor of The Business Insider and a former corporate attorney, joined Henry and me to discuss these questions, as well as the one that really matters: Will anyone - or Lehman's accounting firm Ernst & Young - face criminal charges?

clink link for video
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/%22materially-misleading%22-will-lehman-execs-or-ernst-&-young-face-criminal-charges-442006.html?tickers=XLF,FAZ,GS,JPM,MS,C,BAC&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

[Tansy_Gold]

22. I'm not holding MY breath. Are you holding yours?

I didn't think so.

I have an in-law relative who works/worked for E&Y. He made a lot of money. I never liked him, even before he made a lot of money. He always reminded me of a particularly smarmy character on a short-lived tv show, one who would do anything to protect those who paid his comfortable salary even when he knew they were doing something shady/unethical/wrong.

With a background in accounting, I always thought auditors' jobs were to make sure you were honest, not to help you cheat. Times sure have changed, haven't they?


Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

25. My sister worked for them, when they were Ernst & Whinney

Her career progressed and she eventually became a VP of a major bank in Boston, retired appx 5 years ago. I would say she and her spouse have become (or were) millionaires. For as intelligent she is with numbers, and worldwide career business traveler, she is in complete denial about the casino stock market. She prefers to sew & quilt and leaves their portfolio in the hands of a professional financial planner who tells her that while the market may go down, it always recovers. She really looks down on me because I read Internet blogs. BUT! I did not lose any money when the market declined in 2008, while she lost a bunch. I keep asking her why stay in the market and lose 25-30-50%, again. She says she might miss out on the gains.
:wtf:

[ozymandius]

9. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
It's time for me to leave and ready myself foor the classroom. I'll check back in when the day is done. I hope you have an easy day.

:hi:

[Hugin]

10. Have a great day, Ozy.

:hi:

[Tansy_Gold]

13. Have a great day, Ozy! And when you get back. . . .

If you haven't already, please check out my unnoticed thread from the week-end at
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x523964

Let me know if I got anything wrong.

Wall Street is now entering the classroom and not in a good way.

As someone who always loved school, who went back to school at age 50 to complete an interrupted college education, I have only the greatest respect and admiration and indeed envy for those who teach. It absolutely enfuriates me that people who PROCLAIM they know nothing about teaching are setting out to take over the entire public education system.


Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

29. You know this is quite a personal issue with me.

There are a few things I have observed in my years as both a student and teacher. I firmly believe that a quality education can be obtained almost anywhere if there is the built-in drive requisite of any student. No drive: no education. Really, it is a matter of will.

Like the child of an alcoholic and insane single parent who came through my high school - she excelled because she wanted to have a life different from the hellish experience she lived while watching her parent disintegrate. She is now in college and doing very well.

Then there are the stories of children from good families who fail, willingly, because they just will not do jack shit. That is not the teacher's fault. The student is wholly to blame under the circumstances. Consider a student from last year with a GPA in the 30s in every class. Every. Single. One. What vilification would correct those circumstances? It's his own damn fault for not giving a shit about his education.

Funny how stories like that are not so rare.

I've seen witch hunts before. This is another one. I have run across teachers who are not fit for the job. They typically do not last very long.

Really, Tansy, I agree with the key ideas of your missive. How and why this touches me so personally is that you articulate much of what I see wrong with the world in terms of education. Everyone carrying the megaphone that comes with public office has his own personal silver bullet that will kill bad education once and for all.

Like so much that politics touches: these new ideas seek to produce results within an election cycle. And that simply is not a workable situation.

[Tansy_Gold]

30. I know it is, Ozy. And it should be personal with all of us.

My son-in-law is a teacher. Fiercely dedicated, and probably damn good. Lost his first full-time teaching position because he was too liberal for an upscale, puke district. So he sold cars for a couple years until he got into another district that suited his politics a little better. And he loves it.

Neither of my parents had a college education. My mother disliked school enormously and couldn't wait to graduate and get married. But my dad loved books and our house was full of them. Mostly school was easy for me, and mostly fun.

But here's the thing -- When I went to college the first time, I didn't have the money to make it worthwhile. I had to scrimp, had to work but couldn't work enough to make anything approaching real money. So it was no longer fun, even though it was still mostly easy. I quit, and I think that experience helps me a little bit in understanding how difficult it can be for a kid who has two and a half strikes against him/her. A lousy home life. No money. No resources.

Yeah, sure, there are gonna be the exceptions, the kid so motivated and so desperate and so talented that she or he succeeds in the face of all the obstacles. But why should we tell all those kids who are little less motivated, a little less desperate, that it's their own fault they didn't have the drive and will to succeed?

To paraphrase Joanna Russ, it's harder for them because it's easier for "us," with "us" in this case being those who survived and succeeded and got through school and came out the other side with a few of the better things in life, even if it's only a computer of our own and a reliable broadband connection. The upper 1/2% of the REAL haves have what they have -- private schools, legacy college admissions, etc. -- because of the difficulties the bottom 80% 90% 95% have. Because now we, too, who "succeeded" at one point, are now falling below that magic line between success and failure.

Who draws that line? Who gets to tell a child struggling to overcome the multiple obstacles of poverty and gangs and addictions and pregnancy and lack of health care and hunger and educational disadvantages, who gets to tell that child he or she is "failing"? Hasn't the social fabric already failed that child?

Eli Broad gets up there and says he'll give $200 million to set up charter schools in Detroit even though he knows nothing about education, and people we expect to have more sense than to fall for that crap -- PEOPLE RIGHT HERE ON DU FOR THE LOVING GODDESS' SAKE -- fall down before him and say, oh, yes, master, save us all. Save our children.

What's wrong with us? Have we, or some of us anyway, become so desperate ourselves that we grab onto the sleeves of any would-be savior who presents himself and offers a magic solution to the problems we face? Are we as bad as the teabaggers who believe anything so long as it's what we want to believe? Have too many of us lost the ability and/or the will to examine issues and problems and solutions critically?

That possibility frightens me almost as much as the assaults on liberty and justice from the uber-right.

The BF and I were talking over dinner tonight about the comparison made over the week-end between the present-day hate-mongering of Limbaugh and Coulter and Beck, et alia, and the example set by Julius Streicher in the 1930s. Now, the BF used to believe that the rightwing spewmeisters like Savage and O'Reilly were merely entertaining, and I spent several years combatting that notion. There are people, I told him, who BELIEVE that bullshit, and they can be frenzied enough to turn the hate (emotion) into violence (action). It's taken some time, but he has now admitted that I was correct, that the constant barage of hate speech can and does spur people to action. Even if it's not person-to-person violence, it can be the kind of discrimination that keeps people from getting jobs or housing, or even getting on an airplane to go visit a dying relative.

And his comment over supper was that it's worse today because the lunatic fringe has mastered the communication media, with the spew on radio and tv and the internet.

So I reminded him that one of the first things Hitler did when he came to power was to make sure every German family could afford a radio. http://www.transdiffusion.org/rmc/features/hitlers_radio.php

We have lost much of our voice. The Texas school board will make sure all of our children know more about John Calvin than about Thomas Jefferson, and we have no way to fight that. The charter schools are taking over, and they, too, have an agenda that, for the most part, is antithetical to democracy and justice. So those few students who vanquish the Hydra's snapping jaws of poverty and hunger, violence and neglect long enough to reach high school -- we will never know how many showed great promise only to be stifled long before they graduated from middle school/junior high -- get a reward while their classmates, brothers and sisters, disappear into the Moloch of our third world economy? Is that the best we can hope for?

If not, if there is a way out, how do we find it?


Tansy Gold

[Festivito]

11. Debt: 03/11/2010 12,575,479,490,348.47 (UP 31,090,050,540.02) (Thu)

(Up a lot. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,091,789,616,324.88 + 4,483,689,874,023.59
UP 29,692,666,288.30 + UP 1,397,384,251.72

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,953,758 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,703.44.
A family of three owes $122,110.31. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 11,307,751,303.21.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,538,500,868.81.
The average for the last 28 days would be 8,076,965,216.58.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 110 reports in 162 days of FY2010 averaging 6.05B$ per report, 4.11B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,046 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 21.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/11/2010 12,575,479,490,348.47 BHO (UP 1,948,602,441,435.39 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,665,650,486,836.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,499,768,072,193.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********

198,147,845,391.79 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4303746&mesg_id=4304366

[Festivito]

26. Debt: 03/12/2010 12,575,678,862,901.61 (UP 199,372,553.14) (Fri)

(Up a little. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,092,153,517,935.97 + 4,483,525,344,965.64
UP 363,901,611.09 + DOWN 164,529,057.95

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,962,398 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,702.94.
A family of three owes $122,108.83. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 11,202,733,550.03.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,468,489,033.35.
The average for the last 28 days would be 8,001,952,535.74.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 111 reports in 163 days of FY2010 averaging 6.00B$ per report, 4.08B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,045 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 20.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/12/2010 12,575,678,862,901.61 BHO (UP 1,948,801,813,988.53 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,665,849,859,389.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,491,013,488,817.87 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********

198,397,484,092.29 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4306919&mesg_id=4306955

[Demeter]

15. Happy Ides of March, Everybody

I've got my popcorn ready, waiting to watch Timmy take a long walk off a short pier....

[DemReadingDU]

16. Former President Of Just Failed Park Avenue Bank Arrested On Bank Bribery, Embezzlement And Fraud Ch

3/15/10 Former President Of Just Failed Park Avenue Bank Arrested On Bank Bribery, Embezzlement And Fraud Charges

A former president of a privately-held New York bank, Park Avenue Bank, was arrested Monday on charges including bank bribery, embezzlement and fraud, a federal prosecutor said. A source familiar with the case identified the banker as Charles Antonucci, who was president of the bank from June 2004 to October 2009. On Friday, state regulators closed Park Avenue Bank, which had assets of $520.1 million and deposits of $494.5 million at the end of 2009, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The charges against the former bank president include self-dealing, bank bribery, embezzlement and fraud on the New York state banking department, FDIC and the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the statement by Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said. His office said U.S. officials were to disclose more details at a press conference at 1 p.m. (1700 GMT) on Monday. In November the bank applied for a bailout of less than $12 million under the TARP program but withdrew its application over concerns about restrictions on banks that receive taxpayer money, bank chairman Donald Glascoff said on March 10.

more...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/president-just-failed-park-avenue-bank-arrested-bank-bribery-embezzlement-and-fraud-charges

[Robbien]

21. One wonders who did this guy piss off

No bankster is ever charged for fraud these days. The kind of things this guy is charged with doing is the exact same kind of fraud which happened between Colonial Bank and Taylor Bean last year.

This Park Avenue guy probably just didn't grease enough hands, or the right hands.

[Festivito]

23. Same with Marketwatch link.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=7920645&mesg_id=7920645

[bread_and_roses]

19. I am trying to figure out who owns one of the banks in town

I have a list of mergers and aquisitions but am not sure I am reading it correctly. can anyone help? (there's no money/investments riding on this knowlege - it's research for something else). Please message me here if you are willing to assist. thanks, b&r

[Robbien]

20. Wachovia Is In Talks Over Allegations From Mexico -Drug money laundering

Of course there will be no charges. Just pay a fine and promise not to do it again (all the while denying they did anything wrong in the first place).

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703457104575122141273545642.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Wachovia Bank, a part of Wells Fargo & Co., is in talks with the Justice Department to settle U.S. government allegations that a failure in bank controls enabled Mexican exchange houses to launder drug money, according to people familiar with the situation.

. . .

Wachovia officials have been cooperating with the probe. Wachovia hasn't admitted liability. In its annual securities filing, submitted Feb. 26, Wells Fargo said that the Wachovia bank unit "is engaged in discussions to resolve this matter by paying penalties and entering into agreements concerning future conduct."

On Sunday, Wells Fargo said in a statement: "We look forward to resolving this issue, and are committed to maintaining compliant and effective anti-money laundering policies and practices, and a strong compliance and risk management culture across the integrated organization."

. . .

The bank's dealings with casas de cambrio was also at issue in a separate case filed by a former U.K. employee, turned whistleblower, Martin Woods. Mr. Woods helped oversee compliance for Wachovia's correspondent banking business, which worked with the exchange houses.

In a report filed as part of an employment complained and obtained by The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Woods alleged that in late 2006 and throughout 2007, he had filed a "large number" of suspicious activity reports about travelers checks that were tied to casas de cambio customers and being processed in London. Those reports are typically filed with regulators to highlight improper money movements.

Mr. Woods alleged that his efforts to probe improper money transfers were ignored and that he was questioned about poor work performance, according to employment records related to the case.

Wachovia declined to comment on Mr. Woods' allegations, which don't appear to have triggered the U.S. probe. The case was confidentially settled.

[tclambert]

24. Did the caption fall off that cartoon? Seems like it ought to read: "Iceberg! Right ahead!"

See, then you get your reference to Titanic{/i} reinforced and clarified. Maybe it should have a little Geithner character in a captain's hat saying, "This ship is unsinkable."

[VanW]

27. Egypt stock market falls on Mubarak health worries

CAIRO — Share prices fell in Egypt on Monday over what analysts said were concerns about the health of President Hosni Mubarak who has not appeared in public since surgery in Germany on March 6.

Egypt's benchmark EGX 30 index fell 3.84 percent by the close, after a fall of 2.40 percent on Sunday.

"There is uncertainty in the stock exchange, particularly among Egyptian investors, due to worries about the health of President Mubarak," an expert at a large financial house in Cairo told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"This will carry on until he makes an appearance," a financial analyst said, echoing the view of many in the sector.

Another analyst said the drop was caused by "bad communication" over the president's health. "Other bourses are steady or doing fine. There is no other reason for the drop in the Egyptian market," he said.

Mubarak, 81, is said to be recovering after having his gall bladder and a growth in the small intestine removed. Official statements from his medical team say the operation went well and that the tissue removed was benign.

The president was in a "witty mood" and his recovery "progressing normally," according to the latest update on Saturday.

But the veteran leader has not made a public appearance since his operation more than a week ago and no photograph of him in the German hospital has been made public.
There is also no indication of when Mubarak is expected back in Egypt.

"Egypt is waiting for a photo of President Mubarak," read a headline in the opposition daily Al-Dustur, although a presenter on state television said he could "soon" address the Egyptian people by telephone from his hospital room.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g4kHjFmtReyhZpAkC_AVAs312NYA


Thought this was interesting. The media may be holding back on speculation, but speculators aren't...

[DemReadingDU]

28. There was a rumor somewhere that he might have died

3/15/10 Egyptian blogs and websites like Twitter have been buzzing with rumors that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has died while undergoing a gall bladder operation in Germany on March 6th.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20000485-503543.html


:shrug: