Iran-Pakistan pipeline: When will China join?
Posted on March 6, 2010 by The Editor
For over a decade Iran, Pakistan and India (IPI) have took pains at negotiating a major pipeline deal whereby Iran would send natural gas from its territory to the region. Yet geopolitical and commercial issues have repeatedly prevented the deal’s fruition despite Tehran’s growing need to diversify gas sales to Asian markets and Asian countries desire to find a stable, reliable source of gas supplies.
In recent years, India’s participation in this project has become more uncertain, which is partly responsible for the long delay that the project has suffered to date. Iran’s repeated attempts to raise the price of gas, U.S. pressure on India to refrain from participating in the pipeline, external skepticism about Iranian capability to fill the pipeline as it promises, Indian concerns about the overall stability of Pakistan, and in particular, the possibility of terrorism in Pakistan’s Balochistan province through which the pipeline would travel all contributed to India’s angst (Jane’s Intelligence Review, February 11). Indeed, Iran recently warned India that there is a limit to its patience in waiting for New Delhi to decide (Thaindian.com, February 9).
Iran was apparently able to present this ultimatum because it believes that it now has the “China card” in its deck. In early February, Iranian Foreign Minister Manucher Mottaki reportedly said that Iran was ready to start the pipeline at any time—even without India—and urged Pakistan not to heed U.S. pressure against the pipeline as China could soon replace India in the deal (Press Trust of India, February 8). Background Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari inked a $7.5 billion agreement in Tehran on May 23, 2009 to transfer gas from Iran to Pakistan. According to the deal, Iran will initially transfer 30 million cubic meters of gas per day to Pakistan, but will eventually increase the transfer to 60 million cubic meters per day. The pipeline will be supplied from the South Pars field. The initial capacity of the pipeline will be 22 bcm of natural gas per annum, which is expected to be raised later to 55 bcm (Zawya.com, February 5).
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