STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 19 March

[ozymandius]

Friday March 19, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 310
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 98 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 151 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 362
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 846
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 18, 2004

Dow... 10,295.78 -4.52 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq... 1,962.44 -14.32 (-0.72%)
S&P 500... 1,122.32 -1.43 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.75% +0.07 (+1.79%)
Gold future... 411.30 +4.20 (+1.03%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

The Message of the Stock Market: Economic Recovery on Shaky Ground
"March Madness" for Homebuilder Stocks Follows

Although the stock market can be unreasonable and manic at times, you cannot entirely dismiss what it says. Looking at the leading and lagging sectors in the stock market can provide insight into the strength and duration of the economic recovery. Traditionally mainstream media tend to beat the bullish drum during perceived, as well as real favorable economic conditions. The problem with the mainstream media is that they tend to be wrong at critical turning points. It is these times when being wrong can be the most costly. So when it appears that everyone is beating the bullish drum for the economic recovery, the leading and lagging sectors of the stock market may be telling a much different story. Even though the stock market can be manic, it is always forward-looking. Right now, the stock market is saying that all may not be well with the economic recovery. Tonight I will present an analysis of the leading and lagging sectors in the stock market.

Leading Sectors
<cut>
The largest increase in stock performance rank over the last year is a defensive sector - cosmetics. The defensiveness of cosmetics is described in the January 2004 cover story of US News and World Report, entitled, “On a Roll – The Economy Is Firing on All Cylinders”. (The very title of the article is a “magazine cover” contrary indicator suggesting a slower economy in the near term future.) In a slow economy the sale of lipstick increases as women forgo more expensive expenditures for less expensive rewards. At the time of the January ’04 article, lipstick sales were apparently lagging; however year-to-date, cosmetic stock performance has had the largest increase in rank compared to last year. By the same reasoning, the recent out-performance of such sectors as food, and household products suggests that the defensive posture recently assumed by the forward-looking stock market may be signaling that all is not well in the economy.

Lagging Sectors

The lagging sectors through the beginning of this year compared to last year, is suggesting a slowing economy and a consumer that is slowing down his purchases of big-ticket items (except for homes, financed with low interest money). Note the underperformance of automobile manufacturing, airlines, and entertainment sectors. Presumably, according to the US News and World Report rationale, the stock market is anticipating that instead of vacations and SUVs, women will be buying lipstick and cosmetics.



The lagging sectors through the beginning of this year compared to last year, is suggesting a slowing economy and a consumer that is slowing down his purchases of big-ticket items (except for homes, financed with low interest money). Note the underperformance of automobile manufacturing, airlines, and entertainment sectors. Presumably, according to the US News and World Report rationale, the stock market is anticipating that instead of vacations and SUVs, women will be buying lipstick and cosmetics.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

12. Lipstick over the new Volvo with the sealed bonnet? That was all

I could think of while reading this article.

Interesting, this is like the 3rd or 4th article I've seen in the past week predicting an economic slowdown in the 2nd quarter - once we are all finished spending our big tax refunds. I read somewhere that the lastest rush for refinancing will be short lived - something about remaining bond holders wanting better returns after Japan slows their intervention. Something to that effect. :shrug:

I'll see if I can dig a couple of those up during the day. I'll be around off and on as I join KoKo in dust bunny chasing before the weekend sets in.

[54anickel]

2. Good morning Ozy. I have learned not to be sipping on my coffee

while scrolling down to the daily toon. :dunce:
Another "priceless" toon, and no coffee on my monitor this AM. :7

on edit:
Damn, you almost got me as I scrolled back up past that picture in the Wrap-up!

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning 54anickel.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

It's good to hear that you avoided a near-disaster with your monitor.

The image of the Greenspan slots is a keeper. I've saved the code for future use.

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.88 Change +0.18 (+0.21%)

related article:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/FC20Dh03.html

Japan, China, US: Exchanges fair and unfair

TOKYO - If you want to think about foreign-exchange trading - that high-stakes activity in which you make or lose money by buying and selling currencies created by nations - think back to 1971.

That's when Tokyo's foreign-exchange market started hopping, as the United States broke with the gold standard and launched Japan, the 1960s economic miracle maker, into a revaluation of its well- protected, occupation-era-conceived exchange rate of 360 yen to the US dollar. Inevitably, what now intrigues the market is China, where the yuan may be on a premature collision course with itself.

Okay, so maybe it's best to start with the past week or so, when a surge of commentary over the wisdom of massive intervention made the rounds. People who make a living in forex trading (as well as those who write about it) were absorbed by speculation over what the Japanese monetary authorities were up to (or not up to). The currencies underlying the markets were moving in familiar territory - with the US dollar rising to a little over 110 yen and then falling back toward the 106 yen range of buying and selling.

The least well-kept secret in the market is that the bright officials in the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sort of decided a while back that they would try to keep the yen's rate against the dollar somewhere around 104 yen. This meant that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would, when needed, push huge amounts of yen into the market to buy dollars, which were mostly invested in dollops of US- dollar government bonds.

<huge snip>

By the end of 2003, China's foreign-exchange reserves had topped $240 billion, while Japan, with the largest cache in the world, exceeded $650 billion.

Japanese exporters need to convert dollar-denominated profits into yen-based ones before closing their books on March 31. By fiddling in the currency market to support the dollar, MOF can curb to some extent the depreciation of yen-denominated earnings that are converted from dollar-based profits. Exporters rushed to lock in the favorable yen-dollar rate by concluding forward dollar-sales contracts when Japanese monetary authorities were conducting large-scale yen-selling intervention.

...more...

Good Morning Ozy, 54anickel and all the Marketeers! :hi:

Maybe Coventina could do a reading for us as I have absolutely no clue what this witchy hunting day will bring :D

[punpirate]

14. Well, if the BoJ didn't buy a thing next week...

... no dollars, no nothing, we'd all get to see Greenspan do the "I gotta pee so bad I can't stand it" dance on the nightly news....

[54anickel]

16. OK, I sense a conspiracy to get me to do a spit take on my monitor

these days. :cleaningcoffeeoffmonitorsmileythingy:
:evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

5. Two-day rally fizzles out on Wall Street (from the 'duh' dept)

A two-day reprieve from the stock market correction on Wall Street ran out of steam on Thursday as technical factors outweighed news of a possible capture of a key al-Qaeda leader.

However, the indices fell as volatility intensified ahead of Friday's "quadruple witching", the simultaneous expiry of options and futures for indices and stocks.

"Witching is why I wouldn't take any action today or tomorrow very seriously," said Marc Pado at Cantor Fitzgerald.

<cut>
However, this did not imply an end to the current corrective phase in US equity markets, he said. Following first-quarter earnings, the indices could be expected to test new lows, and "how we come down in May is more significant than what we're seeing right now", he (Pado) said.

story

[54anickel]

13. Gotta love this last paragraph - a glimmer of truth to the US$ policy

Higher oil prices could fan concerns about inflation as higher costs get passed on to consumers. Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, noted the weaker dollar was making it easier for US companies to raise prices, a contrast to previous years when the pricing power of US companies had been restrained and the more likely effect of higher oil prices would have been thinner profit margins.

[ozymandius]

6. Oil price surge threatens US economy

NEW YORK (AFP) - The recent spike in crude oil prices poses a new threat to a still-fragile US economic recovery by boosting the cost of energy for industry, airlines and millions of commuters.

<cut>
US administration officials along with industry leaders are voicing concern about the jump in prices and the potential effect on the economy, which is still struggling to create jobs.

"Higher oil prices are unwelcome. They act like a tax on American producers," US Treasury Secretary John Snow said in an interview this week. "I would hope that energy prices would recede."

story

[ze_dscherman]

11. Vicious Circle

Dollar weakness leads to rising oil prices, rising oil prices to rising energy costs, these to higher manufacturing cost and higher consumer burdens, this again weakens the economy, which will weaken the Dollar.

Bad situation.

[54anickel]

17. Wouldn't you just love to find out who participated in this fuel hedging

contract? I know I would. And what ever happened to slowing down the hoarding into the SPR to relieve pricing pressures? I read in one of UIA's posts in LBN that that's not going to happen now.

:wtf:

[punpirate]

The name's Marvin...

... Marvin Bush.

[54anickel]

27. Heh-heh!!! I put my coffee down before opening this one. :-)

[ozymandius]

7. U.S. Seen Adding Nearly 3 Million Jobs (from the hardy-har-har dept)

DETROIT (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is gearing up to add nearly 3 million jobs by the end of next year and unemployment will drop below 5 percent by the start of 2006, a team of University of Michigan economists said on Thursday.

"We expect to see a strengthening of the jobs picture, with monthly gains in payroll employment exceeding 100,000 over the next several months and moving up from there through the summer months," Saul Hymans, one of the university's leading economic professors, said in a statement.

<cut>
Their forecast coincided with a report from the Labor Department (news - web sites) on Thursday showing that the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level since President Bush (news - web sites) took office.

<cut>
The survey is based on telephone interviews with 500 U.S. households over the course of a month on personal finances and business and buying conditions.

story

[UpInArms]

9. so can you tell me how

a "household survey" of 500 individuals will be indicative of 3 Million jobs?

:chokesputterlaugh:

okay - I know that the survey is for the sentiment report, but how in the world did they come up with this figure for jobs?

[Maeve]

10. You know, if my ouija board told me that, I'd burn it

Obviously it would have been possessed by the spirits of Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.

People's expectations in a survey coincide with the word they heard from the Labor Department and THAT is confirmation? Yeah. Right.

[UpInArms]

22. here's some more on the job front

Lands' End Layoffs

http://www.kwwl.com/Global/story.asp?S=1722351

After more than 20 years in business in eastern Iowa, Lands' End closes two manufacturing plants. 82 people lost their jobs Thursday at the West Union plant, and 57 are laid off in Elkader. In a You Ask, We Answer follow-up report, employees reflect not only the loss of their jobs, but their work families.

The parking lot is empty and so are the hearts of the employees who put in several years of their lives at Lands' End. Leanne Berns is a 14 year employee and says, "There's sadness because we're a family, and through the years we've birthed babies, got married, and divorced and everything together, so we are a family unit." Nancy Lyons is also a14 year employee and says, "It's going to be really hard not seeing some of the people cause it really was like a family we seen everyone's children grow up, our kids grew up together." Inside the plant workers sewed blankets, totes, and other products for Lands' End. Employees found out October 15th they would be laid off, and many saw it coming

<snip>

The workers will be paid through April 2nd. A Lands' End spokesperson says the company was not making money by manufacturing their own products in Eastern Iowa. The jobs with Lands' End will now go to other vendors both domestically and offshore.

[54anickel]

33. Oh NOOOOOO!! Not them too?!

:blackveiledmourningsmileything: :cry:

[KoKo]

36. Can LL Bean, survive? This is very sad...

:-(

[twilight]

39. L.L. Bean

:hi:

Have you noticed how crummy many of their used to be "GREAT" products are now?

I ordered a shirt from them a few weeks ago - $29.00 plus shipping. It was very poor quality - Made in Malaysia it said on it. I returned it for a refund.

Can L.L. Bean survive? The way it is going, I'd say no. They need to make their products here at home in America, not overseas. USA = quality. Overseas junk = junk IMO.

:dem: :kick:

[revcarol]

38. Lands End was ALWAYS a bright spot for me.

Great merchandise, mostly American made. Of course, now they're owned by J. C. Penney..

Sad day...will L. L. Bean be next?

[KoKo]

40. Maybe Bush could have given Lands End the order rather than Burma

for his campaign merchandise. There's a story here, that Land's End lays off folks while George Bush Campaign has Burmese (Mayenmar's) making his Campaign sweatshirts. Here's the link in case you missed it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x432519

[punpirate]

45. Worth noting that one of the women...

... cited in Bush's latest photo-op, an appreciation of democratic women around the world (in which he cited a man, thinking the person to be a woman), was Aung San Suu Kyi of Myanmar.

So, Bush has his campaign crap made in Myanmar sweatshops while praising the woman trying to undo Burma's dictatorship policies, such as sweatshops....

If true, beyond belief.


edit pesky typo.

[llmart]

72. Isn't Lands End owned by Sears now?

n/t

[54anickel]

21. Pffft. What happened to that on the cusp, the brink, anyday now, BS

Oh now it's patience dear, next year and the year after that and the year after that.....

Economic recovery of the last 2 years my arse! It has been the biggest transfer of wealth up the ladder since the '20s. This was not a cyclical recession, but a structural one. Brought on by intense greed, profit seeking, and corruption - just like the roaring 20s. Why don't these people get a friggen clue!

I hate to be so pessimistic, maybe I got up on the wrong side of the bed again today but that K-wave theory and the up and coming winter season is starting to make a helluvalot of sense to me these days.

Please, someone talk me out of this state of mind!!! I think I need a hug again today. :cry: Or maybe just a :beer:

[UpInArms]

24. 54anickel, you have

tremendous abilities to understand and keep you and yours as secure as possible in these trying times.

But here's a :hug: and a :beer: to tide you over

[54anickel]

29. Thanks UIA. I'll buy a round, heck it's Friday and it's noon somewhere!

:beer: :toast: :beer: :toast::beer: :toast::beer: :toast::beer: :toast::beer: :toast::beer: :toast:

[Maeve]

32. No...HERE'S a round of drinks!

:beer: :beer:
:beer: .......... :beer:
:beer: ............... :beer:
:beer: ................. :beer:
:beer: ................... :beer:
:beer: ................... :beer:
:beer: ................. :beer:
:beer: ............... :beer:
:beer: .......... :beer:
:beer: :beer:



Slainte!

[54anickel]

34. Thanks Maeve!!!

[Maeve]

30. Jam yesterday and jam tomorrow, but never jam today

Yeah, I know...the whole country's in a jam!

:grouphug: and :beer:

[KoKo]

37. I had that nasty virus yesterday... and posted it... sorry for passing it

along :-(

:hug:

[UpInArms]

42. sounds like you need

one of these too KoKo :hug:

and for all of the marketeers :grouphug:

and a round on me :toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast:

[KoKo]

44. Many thanks. That really is a perk up. I'm trying to shake that virus..

that was a big dose of tonic! :-)'s

:toast: :-)'s :toast: :-)'s :toast: :-)'s :toast: :-)'s :toast: :-)'s

May we all shake virus and have a beautiful weekend finding some hope in Spring's eventual appearance.


:grouphug:

[tlcandie]

41. Here's yet another hug for you 54!!!

Dun stop your craziness and the sense of humor here ever! If you can't laugh we will all die :+

You guys/gals are the bestest(sic)!! I am a faithful daily follower of this thread and I do so appreciate your wealth of knowledge, insight AND most of all humor!


:hug: :hug: :hug: :hug: :loveya:

[54anickel]

43. Why thank you tlcandie! For all the Marketeers and contributors, to

this thread, along with the "lurkers". Thanks for stopping by!

:grouphug: :toast: :loveya: :donut: :pals: :smoke: (for those that do)

[ozymandius]

23. I nearly spat coffee all over my monitor.

I feel sorry for this reporter. It really is amazing what someone will write just because they need the job.

[TrogL]

67. I've heard the U of Mich is a great party school

Wonder what they're smoking?

[KoKo]

8. Good Morning, Ozy, 54! Notice the Scalia resemblence to Tricky Dick?

Ha.

Goldberg's charts and articles make understanding some of this technical stuff easier. He's the only one that can walk me through a chart and I can see what he's talking about without having to wade through alot of jargon.

It should be interesting to see how the Casino does today. Since there's a little more witching? But things seem to have settled "down" a little. ;-)

:hi:

I've got relatives coming for a visit and I've got to get after the dust bunnies today, but will be checking in.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

15. oops! the reason for

yesterday's (well, it was a stupid reason) "recovery" seems to have fallen apart

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x432328

[Frodo]

19. That article was probably a bunch of bunk

Sounded more like an action flick than reality.

[54anickel]

26. Looks like that story isn't making the rounds. Check this out -

30 minutes ago according to google -

Breaking News
Dollar Trades Higher

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20040319-000460-0910
Reflecting the jittery trading conditions, Thursday's selloff was triggered by security alerts in Europe, including the arrest of a man walking on the U.K. side of a railway line connected to the Channel Tunnel. Later in the day, the dollar recouped some of its losses on reports that Pakistani forces believe they had surrounded al Qaida's No. 2 man, al-Zawahri, near the border with Afghanistan.

More Pakistani troops were joining the battle Friday, and Mr. Mazanec said investors "were kind of hoping to walk in today and find the No. 2 al Qaida guy would have been caught."


1 hour ago -

Dollar Gains as Bin Laden Aide May Be Pakistani Army Target

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a1BLWm60bUzA&refer=us

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the euro, yen and Swiss franc on reports that Osama bin Laden's top aide in the al-Qaeda terrorist network is the target of combat operations by Pakistani forces.

Capturing Ayman al-Zawahiri, a 52-year-old Egyptian, may give a boost to the U.S. anti-terrorism campaign because he may be in close contact with bin Laden and have knowledge of planned attacks. U.S. news organizations reported starting yesterday that that he is surrounded.

``If it turns out that they capture him it would be a big lift politically for President Bush and help boost U.S. confidence,'' supporting the dollar, said Neil Parker, a London- based currency analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Still, ``that's a big `if' because there are so many unknowns.''

The dollar advanced to $1.2333 per euro at 8:10 a.m. New York time from $1.2390 late yesterday, according to EBS prices. It rose to 107.02 yen from 106.82, paring the yen's rise to 3.4 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since March 2002. The dollar rose to 1.2639 francs from 1.2574.

General Shaukat Sultan, Pakistan's military spokesman, described as ``speculative'' reports that al-Zawahiri is surrounded. U.S. officials said the capture or death of top al- Qaeda leaders wouldn't end the war on terrorism.

[UpInArms]

18. market numbers and blather at 9:53 EST

Dow 10,255.49 -40.29 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,953.25 -9.19 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,118.14 -4.18 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 3.765% +0.016

9:40AM: A slightly weaker open for the equity market which is in slight contradiction to the futures indications... The pre-market trade had pointed to a solidly up open, but the major indices have had trouble finding steady buying interest... The simultaneous expiration of four different types of options has made trading conditions choppy and fairly inconsistent...

The morning's news items have been few and far between - with no earnings or economic reports on the docket - but Adobe's (ADBE 38.83 +2.56) better than expected Q1 (Feb) report and continued talk that al Qaeda's number two may have been surrounded by Pakistani troops have quelled strong selling action...

(edited for html)

[KoKo]

20. Hmmm guess their Pump didn't quite work....heh heh..

Back to the bunnies.

[ozymandius]

25. 10:21 numbers and outdated blather

Dow 10,263.93 -31.85 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,953.83 -8.61 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,118.18 -4.14 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 3.767% +0.018

U.S. stocks tracking for higher open

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks sank early Friday as investors continued to await resolution of the pursuit of a "high-level" al Qaida target by Pakistani forces along the border with Afghanistan.

Breaking news of a bomb threat in the Washington, D.C. area may also be affecting sentiment. Police in the Capitol City were searching schools after receiving indications that "several explosive devices" had been planted, a police spokesman confirmed.

There was limited corporate news with only a smattering of earnings reports, including Adobe Systems and Nike, to evaluate. Volatility related to options expiration also factored into the action.

story

[ozymandius]

28. and with this post... gotta run

My boy is getting cabin fever. So I must leave for awhile. I'll check back in later if His Majesty approves.

Have a great day at the Casino folks!


Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

31. Dang Ozy, you got me!! Have a great weekend!

[UpInArms]

35. bye Ozy!

:hi:

hope to see you later :D

have to add the briefing.com blather ('cuz it made me laugh)

10:30AM: Indices remain on the defensive as buying conviction is lacking... Decliners lead advancers by a noticeable margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq, and down volume is also outpacing up volume... Part of the hesitancy of buyers stems from the uncertainty surrounding the success of the Pakistani offensive against al Qaeda... It is not clear whether or not Ayman al-Zawahiri, the number two in command, has been captured yet with some news sources reporting he has escaped...

The Australian has said a bullet-proof LandCruiser believed to have contained al-Zawahiri burst out of a tribal compound in Pakistan's South Waziristan region... It remains to be seen how credible this report is, but it is certainly adding to the indices' indecision... NYSE Adv/ Dec 1076/1718, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1044/1571

[54anickel]

46. 11:22 numbers and blather

Dow 10,282.82 -12.96 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,962.84 +0.40 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 1,119.85 -2.47 (-0.22%)
30-yr Bond 4.699% +0.004

NYSE Volume 486,943,000
Nasdaq Volume 613,281,000

edit for html - otherwise all those color changes would have made this post outdated. Oops, try again.

10:55AM: Stocks retrace some of their losses and trade just below the unchanged mark... A positive showing from the biotech, gold, utility, and energy shares has helped improve the mood of trading... The latter has been boosted by crude oil's increase to a 13-year, intraday high at $38.50/bbl... Worries that OPEC's planned output cuts (starting April 1) will limit US oil supplies further has sent oil prices escalating... Such a fact has been a supportive factor to the oil & gas shares, but could prove to be an overhang to the market should crude oil prices rise even further...
Already tight oil inventories ahead of the summer driving season demand may push prices to $40/bbl...NYSE Adv/Dec 1187/1699, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1229/1473

My,why that's fine, just fine. (Georgia peach accent) :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

47. Treasurys Waffle a Bit (blame it on roundball - sheesh)

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20040319-000558-1039

NEW YORK -- Prices of U.S. Treasurys chopped around in negative territory Friday as a lack of economic data and the distraction of the NCAA basketball tournament made for listless trading.

snip>
The pitched battle between the Pakistani military and al-Qaida operatives in tribal border villages where the terrorist group's No. 2 leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, is believed to be holed up, had little impact on Treasury prices. In trade Thursday, news of a possible capture of al-Zawahri pushed yields higher as some of the safe-haven bid was unwound.

"The market is doing a lot of waffling back and forth," said Paul Garavente, trader at Nomura Securities in New York, who noted some investors are selling shorter-dated securities to go into longer-dated ones.

As for the ongoing talk that the Japanese government will curb its intervention in currency markets in April, traders said few in the fixed-income markets believe the central bank flows will dry up altogether.

The Bank of Japan has spent more than $100 billion in the currency markets so far this year in an attempt to keep the yen from strengthening.

A large portion of those intervention proceeds has been reinvested in U.S. government securities, which has helped keep Treasury yields at their historic lows. Analysts at Credit Suisse First Boston estimate that without the active foreign central bank buying over the last 18 months, the two-year Treasury note would be 30 to 35 basis points higher than what it fetches today.


Hmmm, so what happens if Japan stops hitting the snooze button on this alarm? :shrug:

[Robbien]

49. Got a chuckle from the yahoo headline on the treasury story

Soft US Treasuries roughed up by rampant rumors
Geeze, do they really think investors are paying attention to bomb scare rumors and not acting on BoJ actual activities? Oh well, blather is as blather does.

[54anickel]

48. Lunchtime numbers & blather

Dow 10,291.04 -4.74 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,967.00 +4.56 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,120.52 -1.80 (-0.16%)
30-yr Bond 4.712% +0.017

NYSE Volume 617,577,000
Nasdaq Volume 768,038,000

12:00PM: Equities have been flat to down this morning with buyers remaining non-committal towards shares... The uncertainty regarding the success of the fight to capture Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's number two in command, has kept rally efforts in check and led to a largely downwards day of trading... The quadruple witching options expiration has also kept a lid on large upward swings... Semiconductor has been one of the largest losers, along with health care, transportation, and financial...
Investors have simply been particularly ambivalent with upwards guidance from the likes of Adobe (ADBE 39.45 +3.18), and General Electric (GE 30.50 -0.22) and 3M (MMM 80.30 +0.42) recently, not inspiring much of an advance... Concerns that the market's uptick may have temporarily topped out have held buyers hostage in the interim... Some areas, however, have found buying interest today and include biotech, steel, casino, and software... NYSE Adv/Dec 1513/1518, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1491/1361

[UpInArms]

51. market numbers and really funny blather (LOL!)

Dow 10,262.89 -32.89 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,961.70 -0.74 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,118.84 -3.48 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 3.780% +0.031

1:00PM: Market dips a bit lower and continues its lackluster trade... The major indices' weakened technical stances - with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 having all fallen below their 50-day moving averages - has curbed some of the market's momentum and led to this month's downbeat trade... Stocks have made a decent attempt this week to rally, but ultimately have been cut short by the belief that the equity market's better days might be behind it...

Briefing.com, for its part, disagrees with that assertion, pointing to the low interest rate environment and strong corporate profit picture that should ensure at least a mild gain for the market this year...NYSE Adv/Dec 1516/1587, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1446/1464

[KoKo]

52. ROFL, Graphic! "market's better days behind it." What's the bet stocks

would have been in "freefall" without their "garters" holding them up.

Briefing.com, for its part, disagrees with that assertion, pointing to the low interest rate environment and strong corporate profit picture that should ensure at least a mild gain for the market this year...NYSE Adv/Dec 1516/1587, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1446/1464

[54anickel]

50. 1:18 numbers and funny guy blather

Dow 10,263.26 -32.52 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,962.13 -0.31 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,118.95 -3.37 (-0.30%)
30-yr Bond 4.714% +0.019

NYSE Volume 763,515,000
Nasdaq Volume 923,705,000

1:00PM: Market dips a bit lower and continues its lackluster trade... The major indices' weakened technical stances - with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 having all fallen below their 50-day moving averages - has curbed some of the market's momentum and led to this month's downbeat trade... Stocks have made a decent attempt this week to rally, but ultimately have been cut short by the belief that the equity market's better days might be behind it...
Briefing.com, for its part, disagrees with that assertion, pointing to the low interest rate environment and strong corporate profit picture that should ensure at least a mild gain for the market this year...NYSE Adv/Dec 1516/1587, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1446/1464


Great, so now we can look forward to the market tanking on any good news on the jobs front as the fear of a rate hike sink in. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

53. you did beat me to the post

on this but I have an excuse -

I got caught looking for graphics :D

[54anickel]

54. HA!!! ROLMAO!!! "Priceless" Would that be briefing.com today?

[UpInArms]

56. hold down (or up) the markets for me

I'm away for the rest of the day :hi:

[54anickel]

57. Have a great weekend UIAs. See ya next week!!!

[54anickel]

55. Ya know, this witching business has gotten pretty boring. I wonder if

all the Al Qaeda stuff took the wind out of their bristles. This is from yesterday's late blather:

3:25PM : CNN is now reporting that Pakistani forces say they have in fact surrounded the number two leader of Al Qaeda...this news is overwhelming other issues, and the Dow has now gone positive...it very well may be that traders will not want to be short overnight given the potential for positive news...overall, having the Pakistani troops getting aggressive in hunting down Al Qaeda is a positive recent development...

http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/business/index.ssf?/newsflash/get_story.ssf?/cgi-free/getstory_ssf.cgi?f0079_BC_WallStreet&&news&newsflash-financial


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street suffered through another volatile session Friday, with stocks falling as investors cashed in their options and futures contracts and waited to see if al-Qaida's second-in-command would be captured.

Merger speculation and positive earnings did little to quell the market. With what's known as quadruple witching under way -- meaning that index and equity options and futures contracts all expired Friday -- trading was expected to be turbulent as investors repositioned their portfolios.

"I think this is going to be symptomatic of the kind of market we can expect for a while," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist for CIBC World Markets. "I think we're still in a corrective phase, and I see us trading in this range through the first half of this year."

The possible capture of Ayman al-Zawahri kept the market on edge, as traders were concerned that his apprehension might lead to retaliatory terrorist strikes.

[54anickel]

58. 2:38 numbers & blather - Yawn

Dow 10,264.60 -31.18 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,959.13 -3.31 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,118.65 -3.67 (-0.33%)
30-yr Bond 4.716% +0.021

Thank goodness we can stay with one color for a while anyway.

NYSE Volume 949,868,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,128,108,000

Blather:

2:30PM: Listless day of trade continues with the indices still chalking up modest losses... As it stands now, the Dow is the only major average that is poised to finish with gains for the week - albeit slim ones at roughly 30 points... The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both set to close lower, with the former ready to put up a 1.4% loss... Once again, the technology sector has underperformed this week as more investors have fled high-flying stocks... The semiconductor group has unwound 2% with a good amount of that coming today...
While analyst commentary on the February Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill was contructive, the ratio still dropped to 1.14...NYSE Adv/Dec 1523/1629, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1389/1612

[54anickel]

59. My cross-examination of Alan Greenspan

:evilgrin:

http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/democrat/news/opinion/8219998.htm

[WillyT]

60. How Come Trading Is So Light ???

Cause it's Fiday???

Or am I just reading this chart wrong?

Link: http://www.investorseek.com/charts/dowchrts.html

:shrug:

[54anickel]

61. Think they are all sitting out the quadruple witching thing and the

uncertainly brewing in the ME. But that's just a guess. Who really knows these days, at least they aren't screaming SELL! :shrug:

[jamesinca]

62. At 3:12 Eastern

The Dow is down by 74+ points, that graph fell off the table.

[54anickel]

63. Blue light special just before closing time 3:40

Dow 10,218.82 -76.96 (-0.75%)
Nasdaq 1,948.36 -14.08 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,113.41 -8.91 (-0.79%)
30-yr Bond 4.719% +0.024

NYSE Volume 1,177,843,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,382,980,000

3:25PM: Sellers rush in in the last hour of trading and send the indices spiraling to their worst levels of the day... The stock market's uninspiring performance over the course of the session has left the doors open for a pullback, and pullback it has with the Dow dropping roughly 60 points in the last forty minutes... The semiconductor group's persistent weakness has weighed heavily on the indices in the afternoon, and the SOX index has now freefalled to its lowest level since late October...
As a result, all of the major indices are poised to close lower for the week to mark the second week of losses... Next week, the market could stage a bit of a comeback, although the likelihood of that will lie with a number of economic and earnings reports later on in the week... For a preview of this, visit Briefing.com's Looking Ahead column...SOX -3.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 1455/1752, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1295/1738

[KoKo]

64. Woops! Know they're glad that bell rang.....hmmm.

Have a great weekend all! So many good links posted here it's like having a financial library at one's finger tips. Good weekend reading for those who don't have the time, otherwise!

Thanks all of you. You know who you are! :D

[54anickel]

65. U.S. stocks worsen towards closing bell

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040319/243c7caeb21cace43a8db02187c7475b_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks worsened towards the close Friday with the stand-off involving the "high-level" al Qaida target surrounded by Pakistani forces along the border with Afghanistan still unresolved ahead of the weekend.

snip>
On Thursday, stocks trimmed losses after news broke in the afternoon that the target, believed to al Qaida's No. 2 man Ayman al-Zawahiri, had been surrounded. The news offset a more severe sell-off earlier in the session following a batch of largely disconcerting economic data.

Bob Dickey, an analyst with RBC Dain Rauscher, gave a technical read on the action, saying the recent correction is still playing out and investors could see similar seesaw trading for quite some time.

"There is much choppy action in the general market, but we believe the tech stocks and many small-cap stocks continue their correcting ways," he said. "That many leading issues are pulling back is an indication that the market is still not in a position to stage a more prolonged uptrend yet."

Dickey continued: "Instead, we believe that more testing, bottoming, and basing time is likely, or at least more of this sideways action lies ahead before enough of the indicators and indices reach consensus points that show growing overall strength."

He added that "rotation and being in the right market areas remains the strategy of the day, and perhaps most of the year, as well."

snip>
Treasury prices slipped in afternoon action, putting what would be the bond market's fourth straight weekly gain - its longest streak since September - at risk.

The U.S. dollar re-gained some ground, bouncing off one-month yen lows as intervention speculation continued to dominate currency trading.

Gold futures closed higher, to log a five-session winning streak and end the week with a more than 4 percent gain. Concerns over inflation and terrorism, as well as expectations for continued weakness in the U.S. dollar sparked the rally in the precious metal. April gold closed at $412.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.40 for the session. The contract closed higher every day this week, tacking on a total of $17.10 in five sessions.

April crude closed at $38.08 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 15 cents for the session, and up $1.89, or 5.2 percent for week. One of the main reasons oil futures closed Wednesday at a 13-year high of $38.18 is that the market is concerned that OPEC will stick to its pledge to cut production on April 1.

[TrogL]

69. What happened to the PPT? the "buy something to hold"?

Doesn't the administration hate it when the Friday numbers go in the toilet for the 6 p.m. news? I saw no evidence of the PPT team doing anything, even when they had the opportunity in light trading. Either than ran out of cash or they were in action and things were a lot worse than we actually saw.

Don't traders have a habit of buying something nice to hold over the weekend, which tends to give a Friday bump? What happened?

[54anickel]

66. Closing numbers (still waiting on the blather update)

Dow 10,186.60 -109.18 (-1.06%)
Nasdaq 1,940.47 -21.97 (-1.12%)
S&P 500 1,109.74 -12.58 (-1.12%)
30-yr Bond 4.719% +0.024

NYSE Volume 1,439,230,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,620,440,000

[54anickel]

68. And here comes the blather - Seems even banking took a hit

Close: The bears ultimately won out on Wall Street today as a flat, uninspiring session soon morphed into a day of hefty losses for the market... The major indices managed to hang in there for most of the afternoon, until a collapse in the semiconductor sector (tumbling to fresh five-month lows) inspired a broad-based retreat in the market... The frustration on the part of buyers stemmed from a number of items, with the most influential of those being the market's bias to the downside over the past couple of weeks...
As of now, the indices have registered two weeks of losses as a number of encouraging developments - upside guidance from Federal Express (FDX 71.29 -0.69), General Electric (GE 30.14 -0.58), and 3M (MMM 79.81 -0.07) for instance - have met disinterest from buyers...

The same could be said about today as news that Pakistani forces may have cornered al Qaeda's number two leader did little to shake the negative tone, or prompt strong participation in the market (volume churned at moderate rates)... Divergent reports about the success of such an operation also contributed to the sluggish trade, as well as the simultaneous expiration of four different sets of options...

Most sectors turned in weak performances, with tech, retail, transportation, drug, and banking leading the way lower... Only a handful of sectors - internet and steel - managed up moves...SOX -3.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1199/2041, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1177/1916


Hope everyone has a fantabulous weekend. :hi:

[ozymandius]

70. 54anickel and all, thanks for keeping the thread buzzing.

I just got in and grabbed so time to read this very entertaining, informative thread. Thanks so much to you and everyone else.

Now - on to the hurt. OOOH! OW! What a bruising day for the markets. How does Briefing.com spin this so chirpily? At least we have a dose of reality coming at us from FinancialSense.com.

Have a great weekend!

[54anickel]

71. See ya Monday Ozy, glad you were able to check back in today.

Have a great weekend. :hi: