STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday April 12

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday April 12, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 9, 2010

Dow... 10,997.35 +70.28 (+0.64%)
Nasdaq... 2,454.05 +17.24 (+0.71%)
S&P 500... 1,194.37 +7.93 (+0.67%)
Gold future... 1,167 +4.90 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.88 -0.01 (-0.36%)
30-Year Bond 4.73 -0.02 (-0.44%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Report

14:00 Treasury Budget Mar
Briefing.com $62.0B
Consensus $67.5B
Prior -$191.6B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises to $85 as Europe offers Greece bailout

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $85 a barrel Monday in Asia after European countries offered a massive loan to debt-ridden Greece. ....

The finance ministers of the 15 eurozone nations agreed Sunday to offer euro 30 billion ($40 billion) in loans to Greece this year if Athens asks for the money.

The promise — filling in details of a March 25 pledge of joint eurozone-IMF help — was another attempt to calm markets that have been selling off Greek bonds.

Oil was down the previous three days on investor concern that slowly recovering U.S. crude demand doesn't justify further gains. Crude jumped 25 percent to above $87 last week from $69 in early February.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. AP survey: Recovery to remain sluggish into 2011

WASHINGTON – The pillars of Americans' financial security — jobs and home values — will stay shaky well into 2011, according to an Associated Press survey of leading economists.

The findings of the new AP Economy Survey, released Monday, point to an economic recovery that will move slowly and fitfully this year and next. As a result, the Federal Reserve will be forced to keep interest rates near zero until at least the final quarter of this year, three-fourths of the economists said. ....

Among the first survey's key findings:

• The unemployment rate will stay stubbornly high the next two years. It will inch down to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 8.4 percent by the end of 2011. The rate has been 9.7 percent since January. When the recession started in December 2007, unemployment was 5 percent.

• Home prices will remain almost flat for the next two years, even after plunging an average 30 percent nationally since their peak in 2006. The economists forecast no rise this year and a 2.3 percent gain next year.

• The economy will grow 3 percent this year, which is less than usual during the early phase of a recovery and the reason unemployment will stay high. It takes growth of 5 percent for a year to lower the jobless rate by 1 percentage point, economists say.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100412/ap_on_bi_ge/us_ap_economy_survey

[ozymandius]

4. Asian markets mostly higher on Greece bailout plan

SINGAPORE – Most Asian stock markets rose Monday after European countries offered a major loan package to Greece, which is struggling to avoid a debt default.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average jumped 1.1 percent to 11,322.52, Indonesia's benchmark index gained 0.8 percent and Australia rose 0.7 percent.

The finance ministers of the 15 eurozone nations agreed Sunday to offer euro 30 billion ($40 billion) in loans to Greece this year if Athens asks for the money.

The promise — filling in details of a March 25 pledge of joint eurozone-IMF help — was another attempt to calm markets that have been selling off Greek bonds in recent days.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100412/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[DemReadingDU]

26. Karl Denninger: The bailout is not exactly a sure thing

4/12/10 Karl Denninger: The Jawbone Continues: Greece

Greece was bailed out today, so says Bloomberg:

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- European governments offered debt- plagued Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates in a bid to stem its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.

Forced into action by a surge in Greek borrowing costs to an 11-year high, euro-region finance ministers said yesterday they would offer as much as 30 billion euros in three-year loans in 2010 at around 5 percent. That’s less than the current three- year Greek bond yield of 6.98 percent. Another 15 billion euros would come from the International Monetary Fund.

You sure about that?

EU leaders haven't yet agreed unanimously to offer Greece a bailout, according to a Wall Street Journal report that offered details about the potential plan. But ministers have made the terms of a potential deal public in an effort to reassure world financial markets, which have been unnerved by Greece's debt woes for months.

Oh.

So we "made details public" of something we don't have approval to do, and haven't actually done.

In other words, we're lying.

Again.

And then there's this, which is rather more explicit:

"This decision today was no decision on aid for Greece," Finance Minstry spokesman Michael Offer told Dow Jones Newswires. "But it was only about technical preconditions for aid by further specifying the decision of the heads of state and governments. We expect, we hope that Greece is now in a situation where it can continue to refinance itself on the capital markets, as previously."

That's rather explicit - we've not agreed to actually do anything!

Oh, and then there was this:

Offer said that if the aid plan were to be activated, this had to be preceded by a Greek request, followed by a separate decision process in which the heads of state and governments would "personally" and "unanimously" approve help, a recommendation by the European Commission and the European Central Bank for such aid as well as an assessment by the IMF, which would send a mission to Greece ahead of any aid package decision.

So we have two "wee problems" here:

*
Each government involved will have to authorize the act, and all must agree. Many of them undoubtedly will have to actually pass bills authorizing this - that's no mean feat in and of itself.

*
The IMF has to sign off, and it will impose additional austerity conditions, which Greece will have to agree to. Best-a-luck on that one.

But once again we see that the magic market pumpers come in with a headline, trumpeted loudly through the planet, that all is saved, when in point of fact nothing at all has actually been done, all designed to goose the markets once again (as if there's a "stability" problem with a market that has risen 80% from its lows. Oh wait - maybe it is a bit unstable with that sort of advance, eh? Hmmmm.)

http://market-ticker.org/archives/2181-The-Jawbone-Continues-Greece.html

[Demeter]

29. It's a Sting--Modern Economic Manipulation

Same shit, different day

[Po_d Mainiac]

32. The aliens listening into Earth "pump monkey" broadcasts must think that Greece

has one of the most dominant economies on the planet.

At $350 billion (+/- some pocket change) they account for around 2.5% of EU GDP.

Defaults by California, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, and New Jersey would dwarf by comparison.

[ozymandius]

5. Strong stocks face earnings test

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stock investors will watch the earnings numbers flow in this week to see how much momentum the rally can get from early profit reports.

The first-quarter figures come as the three major U.S. stock indexes finished a sixth straight week of gains, the best string since the rebound from 12 1/2-year lows in March 2009, and the Dow briefly popped above 11,000 late on Friday.

Those gains could make it tough for stocks to rally further, even with expectations, according to Thomson Reuters, for Standard & Poor's 500 (.SPX) companies' first-quarter earnings to rise 36.8 percent from a year ago. ....

Much stronger-than-expected earnings have helped propel the S&P 500 more than 75 percent from the March 9, 2009, closing lows. But in the last earnings season, stocks actually lost about 3 percent as investors sold equities despite strong results.

Some 72 percent of companies beat earnings estimates in the fourth quarter, down from a record 79 percent in the previous quarter, but still well above the 61 percent in a typical quarter, Thomson Reuters data showed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100411/bs_nm/us_usa_stocks_weekahead

[TrogL]

6. Hey, like the new layout

Haven't been on this thread in ages.

The poker website I hang out on is recommending I buy chips 'cause the loonie's so high.

[ozymandius]

9. Thanks!

The loonie is very high - better than parity with the USD. But I would be careful about extrapolating anything consequential from the odd disparity in value. Thanks for dropping by, TrogL. Don't be such a stranger.

:hi:

[Demeter]

7. Monday Morning, Ozy, and What Fresh Hell Is This?

Feeling very Dorothy Parker today.

"For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though
they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem
than by those that are.": Niccolo Machiavelli- (1469-1527)
Italian Statesman and Political Philosopher - Source: Discourses, 1513-1517

[ozymandius]

10. I was going to say -

Sounds like Dorothy Parker climbed into your head. It's a slow news day, aside from the Greece bailout. Profit/loss statements will be issued sometime soon. Not much else happening otherwise. It may be a good time to revisit shades of criminality in lax accounting standards while there's nothing to distract from it.

And good morning. :donut: :donut: :donut:

[Demeter]

11. The Inverse Relationship Of The Real Economy And The Stock Market In USA

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25192.htm

Just the other day, a man who has been in business and has also been in commercial real estate said that he was mystified as to why the “economy is in recovery, but we aren’t seeing any evidence of it in business or commercial real estate.” I explained to him that the STOCK MARKET WORKS IN AN INVERSE RELATIONSHIP TO THE TRUTH ABOUT OUR ECONOMY. THE TRUTH IS THAT MOST OF THE TIME WHEN THE STOCK MARKET IS UP, IT IS AT THE EXPENSE OF WORKERS AND THEIR JOBS. IF YOU DON’T BELIEVE ME, THEN READ ON, PLEASE.

If you watch CNBC and other such channels talking about the economy, they continually talk as if the stock market is the economy; this is phony and as wrong as a $3.00 dollar bill.

What you must really watch, to understand what the REAL ECONOMY is has to do with THE NUMBER OF NEW JOBS BEING CREATED THAT PAY A LIVING WAGE, not the rocketing value of the stock market or the phony “unemployment numbers.” I say they are phony because since Ronald Reagan’s era, if a person was out of work for a selected amount of time, usually 18 months, even if they were looking for a job and were willing to work, THEY WERE NO COUNTED. Thus, today, we have countless thousands who have been out of work for even more than 18 months, but they do not count—THEY ARE NOT EVEN COUNTED AS UNEMPLOYED. Thus, the real unemployment figures are closer to 25% or more, because, in order to inflate the employment numbers, the Reagan people started counting the military in the equation of “employed” as well as anyone working half-time or more; something that had not been done before. Of course, no president since has wanted to tell the truth, so the lies continue.

Now then, you may ask, why do I say there is an inverse relationship between the stock market and the real economy, it’s because CORPORATIONS INCREASE THEIR STOCK VALUE AND ALLEGED PROFITS BY CUTTING BACK ON THE WORK FORCE OR BE OUTSOURCING JOBS, SO THAT THEIR COSTS ARE DOWN; THUS, THEIR STOCK GOES UP ON THE STOCK MARKET CHARTS. Of course, the “commentators, “ who are hustling stocks at all times on CNBC know this, but they will say nary a word about this—instead, they keep saying, “Wow, the market is up, and that shows the economy is recovering.” In fact, I’D SAY, OFTEN WHEN THE PROFITS OF THE CORPORATIONS ARE UP AND THEIR MARKET VALUES ARE UP, AND THE MARKET IS UP, YOU HAD BETTER WATCH OUT BECAUSE THE REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS RISING.

SO, INSTEAD OF TELLING US WHO MANY “LIVING WAGE JOBS” ARE BEING CREATED, WHICH ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, THEY KEEP TALKING ABOUT THE “MARKET IS UP” AND ALSO, THAT THE “UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS” ARE DOWN (and of course they are down because so many who are out of work and have been out of work are no longer being counted!)

What we have then is one big scam on top of another, and yet everyday, the networks, the media and the Wall Street Journal keep trumpeting we are in “recovery,” but they never speak of the creation of living wage jobs because those are the jobs and situations that tell you where the REAL ECONOMY is.

[ozymandius]

8. UBS Posts Highest Quarterly Profit in Almost 3 Years (Update1)

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, reported the highest quarterly earnings in almost three years after a rebound at the debt trading unit.

First-quarter pretax profit was at least 2.5 billion Swiss francs ($2.4 billion), the Zurich-based bank said in a statement today, before its annual shareholders’ meeting on April 14. That is the highest pretax result since the second quarter of 2007.

Chief Executive Officer Oswald Gruebel, who joined the bank in February 2009, is relying on a recovery in fixed-income trading to help the bank reach an annual pretax profit of 15 billion francs in the next three to five years. The debt unit reaped about $2.3 billion of revenue in the quarter, people familiar with the matter said on March 29. ...

The bank also said today that net client withdrawals from its wealth management units amounted to about 15 billion francs, down from 45.2 billion francs in the fourth quarter. Asset management had net outflows of about 3 billion francs in the first quarter, UBS said. The bank has seen 373.3 billion francs of net redemptions in the two years through the end of 2009.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auYoIKTKSaIg&pos=2

[ozymandius]

12. Profit for Banks Dimmed by Home-Equity Loss Seen at $30 Billion

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. may have to set aside an additional $30 billion to cover possible losses on home-equity loans, an amount almost equal to analysts’ estimates of profit at the three banks this year.

The cost of these reserves was calculated by CreditSights Inc., a New York-based research firm whose prediction almost four years ago proved prescient after banks reported unprecedented mortgage-related writedowns. Recognizing the home- equity loan losses is unfinished business from the housing bubble, CreditSights said in a March 29 report.

Potential writedowns on the loans are casting a shadow over earnings, as analysts try to determine how much, and how quickly, loan-loss expenses will decline from the industrywide peak reached in June 2009. Banks led by New York-based JPMorgan begin reporting first-quarter results this week. ...

Action in Washington could spur banks to act. U.S. Representative Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, is scheduled to hold a hearing tomorrow on how second-lien loans are getting in the way of reworking homeowners’ debts and easing the foreclosure crisis. Frank sent a letter March 4 asking banks to recognize more losses in order to clear the way for mortgage modifications. ....

The four biggest U.S. banks by assets -- Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo -- hold about 42 percent, or $442 billion of the $1.1 trillion in second-lien mortgage loans, according to Amherst Securities Group LP, an Austin, Texas-based firm that analyzes home-loan assets. ...

The banks have been slow to take writedowns on second liens since many borrowers keep paying, even if their primary mortgage is underwater. Eighty percent of home-equity borrowers who owe more than 100 percent of the value of their homes continue to pay on time and in full, Bank of America CEO Brian T. Moynihan said at a March 10 investor conference.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayhRMX.B.hJE&pos=4

[ozymandius]

13. Report: Regulators failed to properly supervise WaMu

From Sewell Chan at the NY Times: U.S. Faults Regulators Over a Bank

Regulators failed for years to properly supervise the giant savings and loan Washington Mutual, even as the company wobbled ... a federal investigation has concluded.
...
The report, prepared by the inspectors general for the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, is expected to be released Friday. A draft was obtained by The New York Times.

... WaMu was the largest institution regulated by the Office of Thrift Supervision ... Although regulators found problems ... the office consistently deemed WaMu “fundamentally sound,” giving it a rating of 2, the second-highest on a five-point scale ... The office did not lower the rating to 3 ... until February 2008, and to 4 ... until September 2008, days before WaMu collapsed. “It is difficult to understand how O.T.S. continued to assign WaMu a composite 2 rating year after year,” the report found.

.....

The report will apparently be released on Friday. Earlier reports for other bank failures showed that the field examiners identified the problems early - and then for some unexplained reason, no action was taken. The regulatory system failed.

Calculated Risk has a bit more.

[AnneD]

14. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. First rec :woohoo:

The school board met this week. They announced that they were firing the people that they had brought up trumped up charges on. They announced this publicly and before they had even informed the individuals. This is something that has never, never been done and is seen as tacky and cruel. People are very upset about this.

Theses teachers are fighting back and suing the district, saying the investigator bullied and intimidated them. The funny thing is-THEY HAVE THESE INVESTIGATING SESSIONS ON TAPE.:evilgrin: When that slipped out two board meetings ago, you could hear some board members ass holes pucker up. The Sup is still being an idiot but the school board is starting to grow a spine and push back a little. Lots of parents were there and so were teachers ( and we had not called for the teacher to be there). May will see the fire works though as we will be picketing. This guy is so busted. Folks are starting to question the school board for not vetting him better. They did it behind closed doors so the public had no input.

I have lots of end of the year things to do so I will just lurk for a while. I will do some drive by posting when I can.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

16. Good morning, AnneD.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

That's great news about the superintendent catching some hell. The teachers who caught hell first get my sympathies. I really appreciate the updates you provide here and look forward to hearing more as events unfold.

:hi:

[AnneD]

28. I am somewhat taken aback.....

at the seemingly orchestrated attack on both public education and teachers nation wide in the last few months. Why now and why teachers? I maintain that business is looking at the money spent on education and can't wait to get their hands on it. It also seems to be a distraction-but for what.

[Demeter]

30. Eating the Seed Corn

There isn't enough money in the world to satisfy these Greedsters, but the fact that some little kid might actually get it enrages them like nothing else. Especially if that kid is poor, non-white, or both.

[bread_and_roses]

33. Agree with Demeter but want to add union busting

teachers and public sector workers under concerted attack in all the States - powerful unions. (on edit, by that I mean the PTB will not tolerate this last hold-out of a unionized sector of workers - have to destroy them to privatize/loot/destroy)

An aside - I personally don't understand how teachers have allowed themselves to be turned into automations in these last few decades - where were their unions?

I find I can't write anything coherent about any of this anymore - am just in too great a state of frustration and despair.

[DemReadingDU]

34. Sad to say, not just teachers, but teacher unions and all unions

It goes deeper than just orchestrated attacks on teacher unions. These attacks have started against various union city workers too. Soon it will be attacks against police and firemen unions. The end game, is no unions.
:mad:

[Dr.Phool]

36. We need a general strike.

If the teachers around here decide to walk out over the shit this legislature has passed, I'll walk the picket lines with them every day.

It's long past due to put a halt to this anti-worker, anti-middle class bullshit. It's only class warfare when we fight back.

[DemReadingDU]

39. Yes we do

But not just in Florida, every state, a nationwide strike, bring the country to its knees, like in France or Greece. Unfortunately, people here are too complacent. You'll be lucky to get a few people holding signs, until they have nothing to lose. Then people react.
:(

[CatholicEdHead]

40. Seems to be fallout from the 2008 election

First it was ACORN, the GOP got their piece of meat for the "community organizers", now they are going after the unions. The endgame is not only economic union busting but also it is part of a attempt to fracture the Democratic base, so no community organizers and unions means no Democratic organizing, hence GOP election wins as far as the eye can see. These are attacks at the supposedly weaker flanks than direct head on attacks on Obama.

[AnneD]

41. That may be true....

But I never expected Obama and the Dem Party to be carrying the water for the GOP!

[CatholicEdHead]

45. The weak spots are NCLB and the down economy

NCLB has been around a while and the assessment parts are out of sync with the classroom. The current feel is similar to a Tough on Crime approach, with the same standards regardless of local population and putting everything on the teachers. So unless the teachers get students to learn at sometimes unrealistic standards, they are attacked on a professional and union level.

Also the tight budgets at county, state, and city levels are backdoors to get rid of those public unions in the name of balancing the budget.

Some Democratic push is misplaced here (e.g. supporting NCLB) but this Democratic Party are the moderate Republican party of the 70's.

[ozymandius]

15. Calculated Risk: Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead

There will be two key housing reports released this week: Housing Starts to be released on Friday, and the NAHB homebuilder index on Thursday. Most of the focus will be on March retail sales to be released on Wednesday. ....

Early in the week, the March National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business survey will be released and also the March rail traffic report from the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Other reports that will probably be released this week include the HAMP March report, the LoanPerformance house price index (for February) and LA port traffic for March.

On Tuesday the February Trade Balance report will be released at 8:30 AM by the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a further increase in the U.S. trade deficit to around $39 billion (from $37.3 billion).

On Wednesday March retail sales will be released at 8:30 AM. The consensus is for an increase of 1.2% from the February rate. The consumer price index (CPI) will also be released on Wednesday (the consensus is for a 0.1% increase in prices), and business inventories will be released at 10 AM. Also on Wednesday the Fed Beige Book will be released at 2 PM. The New York Fed’s Brian Sack will be speaking at 7 PM on the financial crisis.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/weekly-summary-and-look-ahead_11.html

[Demeter]

17. ExxonMobil paid no federal income tax in 2009. (Updated)

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/04/06/exxon-tax/

Last week, Forbes magazine published what the top U.S. corporations paid in taxes last year. “Most egregious,” Forbes notes, is General Electric, which “generated $10.3 billion in pretax income, but ended up owing nothing to Uncle Sam. In fact, it recorded a tax benefit of $1.1 billion.” Big Oil giant Exxon Mobil, which last year reported a record $45.2 billion profit, paid the most taxes of any corporation, but none of it went to the IRS:

Exxon tries to limit the tax pain with the help of 20 wholly owned subsidiaries domiciled in the Bahamas, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands that (legally) shelter the cash flow from operations in the likes of Angola, Azerbaijan and Abu Dhabi. No wonder that of $15 billion in income taxes last year, Exxon paid none of it to Uncle Sam, and has tens of billions in earnings permanently reinvested overseas.

Mother Jones’ Adam Weinstein notes that, despite benefiting from corporate welfare in the U.S., Exxon complains about paying high taxes, claiming that it threatens energy innovation research. Pat Garofalo at the Wonk Room notes that big corporations’ tax shelter practices similar to Exxon’s shift a $100 billion annual tax burden onto U.S. taxpayers. In fact, in 2008, the Government Accountability Office found that “two out of every three United States corporations paid no federal income taxes from 1998 through 2005.”
Update Forbes has updated its article to include a statement from Exxon: "Though Exxon's financial statement's don't show any net income tax liability owed to Uncle Sam, a company spokesman insists that once its final tax bill is figured, Exxon will owe a 'substantial 2009 tax liability.' How substantial? 'That's not something we're required to disclose, nor do we.'"

[ozymandius]

20. Outrageous!

And just think: they have positioned themselves to profit from any Molotov cocktails being hurled in their direction.

[tclambert]

44. ExxonMobil has done more harm to America than anyone except perhaps the family Bush.

[Demeter]

18. China's Metamorphosis: "From export juggernaut to a credit addict" By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25151.htm




April 06, 2010 "Information Clearing House" -- There's no doubt that China manipulates its currency to gain an unfair advantage over its competitors. There's also no doubt that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will do everything in his power to avoid a confrontation with China's President Hu Jintao when he arrives in Washington in two weeks. That's why Geithner has decided to shelve Treasury's mandated currency manipulation report for the time-being and diffuse a potential imbroglio with Hu. But the Treasury Secretary's unwillingness to embarrass his guest, has angered members of congress who think the administration needs to take a tougher stand on China to protect American workers and U.S. exporters. Senators. Charles Schumer (NY-D) and Lindsey Graham (SC-R) are demanding that China be labeled a "currency manipulator" so that punitive action can be taken. That could lead a full-blown trade war with America's biggest creditor.

There's no chance that the Geithner will openly challenge Hu or that the administration will take any action that would jeopardize relations. China's President will get the red carpet treatment for the length of his visit and Geithner will spend the bulk of his time pressing the leader for concessions that will allow greater access to China's market for his buddies in the financial services industry. That's the "hidden agenda" that both the congress and the media fail to see. From Geithner's point of view, the confab is not really about "strategic dialogue" on "mutual economic and security issues". That's just a smokescreen. Geithner is backed by powerful Wall Street constituents who could care less about exchange rates or jobs. What they care about is markets and profits. And for that, they need greater access.

During his term as Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson spent more time in Beijing than he did in Washington. But his goals were the same as Geithner's; to do whatever it takes to pry-open the biggest consumer market on earth. That basic policy hasn't changed.

No one believes that Geithner is going to fight to save American jobs. It's laughable. From his perspective, the currency flap is just stick for beating up on China when groveling doesn't work. But it's too early to put the stick to work, just yet. For now the policy is all "carrots", although that could change in an instant if Wall Street doesn't get its way.

Americans have a fundamental misunderstanding about the US/China relationship. China is not in the driver's seat and neither is the United States. There's a third party involved, but that party remains mostly invisible. And that's how they like it. Here's an excerpt from the Washington Post which explains the whole thing:

"If the United States does decide to impose tariffs on China, Chen said, American companies operating in China, which account for more than 60 percent of China's exports to the United States, would surely be hurt the most. ‘In the end,’ Chen said, ‘America is the one that needs to adjust.’

"While some analysts have predicted that China would soon start to let the yuan appreciate, Chen's interview illustrated the fact that there is a strong lobby in China opposing revaluation. One reason why a revaluation would be dangerous for China, Chen said, is that profit margins for Chinese exporters are tiny -- ranging from 1.7 to two percentage points." ("China's commerce minister: U.S. has the most to lose in a trade war" Washington Post)

To repeat: "American companies.... account for more than 60 percent of China's exports to the United States." That means, the head honchos of the biggest multinationals are calling the shots. China is not the villain here. After all, they're only getting a measly 1.7 on their investment. If the renminbi strengthens at all; they're in the red. China's back is against the wall. What are they supposed to do; work for nothing and let the voracious multinationals walk off with 100 percent of the profits?

The truth is, China's currency policy was probably just one of the many perks demanded by foreign corporations before they relocated to China. Naturally the CEOs would want to make sure they'd have an edge on the competition, so they (probably) persuaded Hu into gaming the system before they even broke ground. China has always gone the extra mile to accommodate the interests of the multinationals. Unfortunately, that's the only way to entice them to relocate.

Now it looks like China is headed for a hard landing whether it tweaks the exchange rate or not. Its $600 billion fiscal stimulus and massive lending programs have inflated a credit bubble that is about to burst. Here's a blurp from the Independent Strategy’s latest report titled, “China’s credit bubble: the missing piece in the jigsaw”:

"We now know that much of the credit explosion in 2009 that boosted economic growth went into local government entities where it was wasted on unproductive real estate and infrastructure projects. These entities are mostly insolvent and will create huge bad debts for the banks as credit is tightened this year….

Debt is big enough to be a potential source of major macro-economic instability. ...This Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFV) edifice will not survive credit tightening, because it is a Ponzi-type pyramid built upon borrowing more to service existing borrowings….the problem is economically huge. LGFVs are not going to be borrowing and spending any more. And if infrastructure investment drove 90% of 2009 GDP growth and 70-80% of this was down to insolvent LGFVs, where will the growth in credit and GDP come from now?"

The lethal combo of non-performing loans and falling real estate prices are likely to trigger a broader crisis that could spill over the borders and push the global economy back into recession. This is a real concern. Here's an excerpt from hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry who predicts even tougher times ahead:

"The composition of China's growth has undergone a potentially treacherous change: in the absence of expanding foreign demand for its exports, it has instead come to rely on a massive surge in domestic bank lending to fuel its growth rate. Indeed, when measured relative to the size of its economy, the 27pc point jump in bank loans to GDP is unprecedented; at no point in history has a nation ever attempted such an incredible increase in state-directed bank lending.

What a turnaround: from an export juggernaut to a credit addict. Who would have thought it necessary back in 2001, the year everything all started to work out for China?....China has become the world's biggest creditor, after amassing nearly $2.3 trillion of foreign exchange claims on us. However, the specter of a creditor nation running persistent trade surpluses has ominous historical portents. It has happened only twice before, with the US economy in the Twenties and with the Japanese economy in the Eighties. ("China: Hugh Hendry warns investors' infatuation is misguided" UK Telegraph)

China is headed for trouble. Its economy is reeling from overinvestment, underconsumption, and razor-thin profit margins. That's a tough mix in the best of times; and these aren't the best of times. When the bubble starts to unwind; defaults will increase, consumption will drop and economic activity will slow to a crawl. That will force the renminbi to rise whether the Party bosses like it or not.

China's business model is deeply flawed. The domestic market needs to expand so there's less dependence on exports. Personal consumption is the key, which means that wages and living standards will have to rise. The government needs a wealth-distribution plan--like the New Deal--to increase demand and create a thriving middle class. And that's the rub, because the class war goes on in China just as it does in United States.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE US AND CHINA? CHINA CAN ONLY BE FOOLED ONCE.

[Demeter]

19. America: The Grim Truth By Lance Freeman

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25166.htm

April 08, 2010 "Information Clearing House" -- Americans, I have some bad news for you:

You have the worst quality of life in the developed world – by a wide margin.

If you had any idea of how people really lived in Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and many parts of Asia, you’d be rioting in the streets calling for a better life. In fact, the average Australian or Singaporean taxi driver has a much better standard of living than the typical American white-collar worker.

I know this because I am an American, and I escaped from the prison you call home.

I have lived all around the world, in wealthy countries and poor ones, and there is only one country I would never consider living in again: The United States of America. The mere thought of it fills me with dread.

Consider this: you are the only people in the developed world without a single-payer health system. Everyone in Western Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia, Singapore and New Zealand has a single-payer system. If they get sick, they can devote all their energies to getting well. If you get sick, you have to battle two things at once: your illness and the fear of financial ruin. Millions of Americans go bankrupt every year due to medical bills, and tens of thousands die each year because they have no insurance or insufficient insurance. And don’t believe for a second that rot about America having the world’s best medical care or the shortest waiting lists: I’ve been to hospitals in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Singapore, and Thailand, and every one was better than the “good” hospital I used to go to back home. The waits were shorter, the facilities more comfortable, and the doctors just as good.

This is ironic, because you need a good health system more than anyone else in the world. Why? Because your lifestyle is almost designed to make you sick.

Let’s start with your diet: Much of the beef you eat has been exposed to fecal matter in processing. Your chicken is contaminated with salmonella. Your stock animals and poultry are pumped full of growth hormones and antibiotics. In most other countries, the government would act to protect consumers from this sort of thing; in the United States, the government is bought off by industry to prevent any effective regulations or inspections. In a few years, the majority of all the produce for sale in the United States will be from genetically modified crops, thanks to the cozy relationship between Monsanto Corporation and the United States government. Worse still, due to the vast quantities of high-fructose corn syrup Americans consume, fully one-third of children born in the United States today will be diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes at some point in their lives.

Of course, it’s not just the food that’s killing you, it’s the drugs. If you show any sign of life when you’re young, they’ll put you on Ritalin. Then, when you get old enough to take a good look around, you’ll get depressed, so they’ll give you Prozac. If you’re a man, this will render you chemically impotent, so you’ll need Viagra to get it up. Meanwhile, your steady diet of trans-fat-laden food is guaranteed to give you high cholesterol, so you’ll get a prescription for Lipitor. Finally, at the end of the day, you’ll lay awake at night worrying about losing your health plan, so you’ll need Lunesta to go to sleep.

With a diet guaranteed to make you sick and a health system designed to make sure you stay that way, what you really need is a long vacation somewhere. Unfortunately, you probably can’t take one. I’ll let you in on little secret: if you go to the beaches of Thailand, the mountains of Nepal, or the coral reefs of Australia, you’ll probably be the only American in sight. And you’ll be surrounded crowds of happy Germans, French, Italians, Israelis, Scandinavians and wealthy Asians. Why? Because they’re paid well enough to afford to visit these places AND they can take vacations long enough to do so. Even if you could scrape together enough money to go to one of these incredible places, by the time you recovered from your jetlag, it would time to get on a plane and rush back to your job.

If you think I’m making this up, check the stats on average annual vacation days by country:

Finland: 44
Italy: 42
France: 39
Germany: 35
UK: 25
Japan: 18
USA: 12

The fact is, they work you like dogs in the United States. This should come as no surprise: the United States never got away from the plantation/sweat shop labor model and any real labor movement was brutally suppressed. Unless you happen to be a member of the ownership class, your options are pretty much limited to barely surviving on service-sector wages or playing musical chairs for a spot in a cubicle (a spot that will be outsourced to India next week anyway). The very best you can hope for is to get a professional degree and then milk the system for a slice of the middle-class pie. And even those who claw their way into the middle class are but one illness or job loss away from poverty. Your jobs aren’t secure. Your company has no loyalty to you. They’ll play you off against your coworkers for as long as it suits them, then they’ll get rid of you.

Of course, you don’t have any choice in the matter: the system is designed this way. In most countries in the developed world, higher education is either free or heavily subsidized; in the United States, a university degree can set you back over US$100,000. Thus, you enter the working world with a crushing debt. Forget about taking a year off to travel the world and find yourself – you’ve got to start working or watch your credit rating plummet.

If you’re “lucky,” you might even land a job good enough to qualify you for a home loan. And then you’ll spend half your working life just paying the interest on the loan – welcome to the world of American debt slavery. America has the illusion of great wealth because there’s a lot of “stuff” around, but who really owns it? In real terms, the average American is poorer than the poorest ghetto dweller in Manila, because at least they have no debts. If they want to pack up and leave, they can; if you want to leave, you can’t, because you’ve got debts to pay.

All this begs the question: Why would anyone put up with this? Ask any American and you’ll get the same answer: because America is the freest country on earth. If you believe this, I’ve got some more bad news for you: America is actually among the least free countries on earth. Your piss is tested, your emails and phone calls are monitored, your medical records are gathered, and you are never more than one stray comment away from writhing on the ground with two Taser prongs in your ass.

And that’s just physical freedom. Mentally, you are truly imprisoned. You don’t even know the degree to which you are tormented by fears of medical bankruptcy, job loss, homelessness and violent crime because you’ve never lived in a country where there is no need to worry about such things.

But it goes much deeper than mere surveillance and anxiety. The fact is, you are not free because your country has been taken over and occupied by another government. Fully 70% of your tax dollars go to the Pentagon, and the Pentagon is the real government of the United States. You are required under pain of death to pay taxes to this occupying government. If you’re from the less fortunate classes, you are also required to serve and die in their endless wars, or send your sons and daughters to do so. You have no choice in the matter: there is a socio-economic draft system in the United States that provides a steady stream of cannon fodder for the military.

If you call a life of surveillance, anxiety and ceaseless toil in the service of a government you didn’t elect “freedom,” then you and I have a very different idea of what that word means.

If there was some chance that the country could be changed, there might be reason for hope. But can you honestly look around and conclude that anything is going to change? Where would the change come from? The people? Take a good look at your compatriots: the working class in the United States has been brutally propagandized by jackals like Rush Limbaugh, Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity. Members of the working class have been taught to lick the boots of their masters and then bend over for another kick in the ass. They’ve got these people so well trained that they’ll take up arms against the other half of the working class as soon as their masters give the word.

If the people cannot make a change, how about the media? Not a chance. From Fox News to the New York Times, the mass media in the United States is nothing but the public relations wing of the corporatocracy, primarily the military industrial complex. At least the citizens of the former Soviet Union knew that their news was bullshit. In America, you grow up thinking you’ve got a free media, which makes the propaganda doubly effective. If you don’t think American media is mere corporate propaganda, ask yourself the following question: have you ever heard a major American news outlet suggest that the country could fund a single-payer health system by cutting military spending?

If change can’t come from the people or the media, the only other potential source of change would be the politicians. Unfortunately, the American political process is among the most corrupt in the world. In every country on earth, one expects politicians to take bribes from the rich. But this generally happens in secret, behind the closed doors of their elite clubs. In the United States, this sort of political corruption is done in broad daylight, as part of legal, accepted, standard operating procedure. In the United States, they merely call these bribes campaign donations, political action committees and lobbyists. One can no more expect the politicians to change this system than one can expect a man to take an axe and chop his own legs out from underneath him.

No, the United States of America is not going to change for the better. The only change will be for the worse. And when I say worse, I mean much worse. As we speak, the economic system that sustained the country during the post-war years is collapsing. The United States maxed out its “credit card” sometime in 2008 and now its lenders, starting with China, are in the process of laying the foundations for a new monetary system to replace the Anglo-American “petro-dollar” system. As soon as there is a viable alternative to the US dollar, the greenback will sink like a stone.

While the United States was running up crushing levels of debt, it was also busy shipping its manufacturing jobs and white-collar jobs overseas, and letting its infrastructure fall to pieces. Meanwhile, Asian and European countries were investing in education, infrastructure and raw materials. Even if the United States tried to rebuild a real economy (as opposed to a service/financial economy) do think American workers would ever be able to compete with the workers of China or Europe? Have you ever seen a Japanese or German factory? Have you ever met a Singaporean or Chinese worker?

There are only two possible futures facing the United States, and neither one is pretty. The best case is a slow but orderly decline – essentially a continuation of what’s been happening for the last two decades. Wages will drop, unemployment will rise, Medicare and Social Security benefits will be slashed, the currency will decline in value, and the disparity of wealth will spiral out of control until the United States starts to resemble Mexico or the Philippines – tiny islands of wealth surrounded by great poverty (the country is already halfway there).

Equally likely is a sudden collapse, perhaps brought about by a rapid flight from the US dollar by creditor nations like China, Japan, Korea and the OPEC nations. A related possibility would be a default by the United States government on its vast debt. One look at the financial balance sheet of the US government should convince you how likely this is: governmental spending is skyrocketing and tax receipts are plummeting – something has to give. If either of these scenarios plays out, the resulting depression will make the present recession look like a walk in the park.

Whether the collapse is gradual or gut-wrenchingly sudden, the results will be chaos, civil strife and fascism. Let’s face it: the United States is like the former Yugoslavia – a collection of mutually antagonistic cultures united in name only. You’ve got your own version of the Taliban: right-wing Christian fundamentalists who actively loathe the idea of secular Constitutional government. You’ve got a vast intellectual underclass that has spent the last few decades soaking up Fox News and talk radio propaganda, eager to blame the collapse on Democrats, gays and immigrants. You’ve got a ruthless ownership class that will use all the means at its disposal to protect its wealth from the starving masses.

On top of all that you’ve got vast factory farms, sprawling suburbs and a truck-based shipping system, all of it entirely dependent on oil that is about to become completely unaffordable. And you’ve got guns. Lots of guns. In short: the United States is about to become a very unwholesome place to be.

Right now, the government is building fences and walls along its northern and southern borders. Right now, the government is working on a national ID system (soon to be fitted with biometric features). Right now, the government is building a surveillance state so extensive that they will be able to follow your every move, online, in the street and across borders. If you think this is just to protect you from “terrorists,” then you’re sadly mistaken. Once the shit really hits the fan, do you really think you’ll just be able to jump into the old station wagon, drive across the Canadian border and spend the rest of your days fishing and drinking Molson? No, the government is going to lock the place down. They don’t want their tax base escaping. They don’t want their “recruits” escaping. They don’t want YOU escaping.

I am not writing this to scare you. I write this to you as a friend. If you are able to read and understand what I’ve written here, then you are a member of a small minority in the United States. You are a minority in a country that has no place for you.

So what should you do?

You should leave the United States of America.

If you’re young, you’ve got plenty of choices: you can teach English in the Middle East, Asia or Europe. Or you can go to university or graduate school abroad and start building skills that will qualify you for a work visa. If you’ve already got some real work skills, you can apply to emigrate to any number of countries as a skilled immigrant. If you are older and you’ve got some savings, you can retire to a place like Costa Rica or the Philippines. If you can’t qualify for a work, student or retirement visa, don’t let that stop you – travel on a tourist visa to a country that appeals to you and talk to the expats you meet there. Whatever you do, go speak to an immigration lawyer as soon as you can. Find out exactly how to get on a path that will lead to permanent residence and eventually citizenship in the country of your choice.

You will not be alone. There are millions of Americans just like me living outside the United States. Living lives much more fulfilling, peaceful, free and abundant than we ever could have attained back home. Some of us happened upon these lives by accident – we tried a year abroad and found that we liked it – others made a conscious decision to pack up and leave for good. You’ll find us in Canada, all over Europe, in many parts of Asia, in Australia and New Zealand, and in most other countries of the globe. Do we miss our friends and family? Yes. Do we occasionally miss aspects of our former country? Yes. Do we plan on ever living again in the United States? Never. And those of us with permanent residence or citizenship can sponsor family members from back home for long-term visas in our adopted countries.

In closing, I want to remind you of something: unless you are an American Indian or a descendant of slaves, at some point your ancestors chose to leave their homeland in search of a better life. They weren’t traitors and they weren’t bad people, they just wanted a better life for themselves and their families. Isn’t it time that you continue their journey?

[MattSh]

42. Yep, that's pretty grim...

but sadly, it's pretty true too.

I could tell you stories, but up to a year or two ago, few would believe them. People are much more open to listening now.

.

[ozymandius]

21. Have a nice day, everyone.

It's time to start toward the door. I will check in when the day is done.

:hi:

[Demeter]

22. Ave Atque Vale!

[kickysnana]

38. Scanned as Aqua Velva..(LOL) nt

[rucky]

23. Fairly new SMW lurker checking in.

Thanks, Ozy, Demeter, etc. This has become part of my morning routine.

[Festivito]

25. Good morning Rucky.

It seems to be a quiet Monday.

That's good. I'm going to be now.

[DemReadingDU]

27. Another Buckeye!

Welcome!
:hi:

[Dr.Phool]

35. Buckeye? A useless nut!

I used to be one. Or still am.

[DemReadingDU]

37. I'm a transplant

previously Hoosier

[Demeter]

31. Glad to Have You Aboard

although it often feels like we are on a ship of fools and locked in the brig...

[Festivito]

24. Debt: 04/08/2010 12,826,031,306,447.93 (UP 34,156,757,993.77) (Thu)

Debt: 04/08/2010 12,826,031,306,447.93 (UP 34,156,757,993.77) (Thu)
(Up a lot. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,347,752,339,307.00 + 4,478,278,967,140.93
UP 30,863,719,709.59 + UP 3,293,038,284.18

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,028,424 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,504.37.
A family of three owes $124,513.12. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 11,652,471,023.68.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,321,976,818.94.
The average for the last 31 days would be 9,021,267,889.30.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 130 reports in 190 days of FY2010 averaging 7.05B$ per report, 4.82B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,018 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 22.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/08/2010 12,826,031,306,447.93 BHO (UP 2,199,154,257,534.85 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,916,202,302,936.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,760,072,845,114.28 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********

173,564,542,737.22 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4337279&mesg_id=4337787

[Festivito]

43. Debt: 04/09/2010 12,825,687,391,205.70 (DOWN 343,915,242.23) (Fri)

(Down a little after being up a lot. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,347,537,145,021.94 + 4,478,150,246,183.76
DOWN 215,194,285.06 + DOWN 128,720,957.17

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,035,070 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,502.37.
A family of three owes $124,507.11. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 11,374,328,162.87.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,099,462,530.30.
The average for the last 31 days would be 8,805,931,480.93.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 131 reports in 191 days of FY2010 averaging 6.99B$ per report, 4.80B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,017 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 21.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/09/2010 12,825,687,391,205.70 BHO (UP 2,198,810,342,292.62 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,915,858,387,694.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,750,200,583,813.14 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---

173,104,542,739.81 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4340289&mesg_id=4340347

[Roland99]

46. Closing numbers - Hey, Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit outta my hat!

Dow 11,006 +9 +0.08%
Nasdaq 2,458 +4 +0.16%
S&P 500 1,196 +2 +0.18%
GlobalDow 2,065 +10 +0.48%
Gold 1,157 -5 -0.46%
Oil 84.33 -0.59 -0.70%

[Demeter]

47. But That Trick Never Works!

[Roland99]

48. Pay no attention to the men behind the curtain (of glass and steel)