New Zogby Poll: Kerry 48, Bush 46 - Democratic Underground

mobuto

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Mon Mar-22-04 12:08 AM
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New Zogby Poll: Kerry 48, Bush 46

This is interesting: Kerry's had two terrible weeks in which Bush has thrown everything at him. And he's still leading.

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http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=812

Kerry 48, Bush 46; With Nader It's a Tie; Kerry Leads Big in the Blues, Bush Leads Big in the Reds; Bush Preferred If Terror Hits US, New Zogby International Poll Reveals

With less than eight months to go before the presidential election, likely voters are almost evenly divided in their support for a candidate to capture the White House in November. Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds a slight edge of 48% to 46% over President George W. Bush.

Candidate
March 17-19 %

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
48

President George W. Bush
46

Undecided
5

When Independent candidate Ralph Nader is added, Kerry and Bush are tied with 46% each, followed by Nader at 3%.

Candidate
March 17-19 %

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
46

President George W. Bush
46

Independent Ralph Nader
3

Undecided
5

In the Blues States, those that were won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 56% support, as compared to Bush with 38%. However, in the Red States, those won by President Bush in 2000, Bush leads with 53% to Kerry’s 40%.

Candidate
Blues States %
Red States %

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
56
40

President George W. Bush
38
53

Undecided
4
6

If a major terrorist attack were again to hit the United States, 51% of likely voters prefer to be led by Bush as compared to Kerry with 40%.

Candidate
March 17-19 %

President George W. Bush
51

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
40

Undecided
6

Overall, however, President Bush's job performance rating continues to slide with 53% of likely voters giving him an negative rating (Fair-Poor), and 46% granting him a positive rating (Excellent-Good). On the important re-elect question, only 45% say that the President “deserves to be re-elected”, while 51% say it “time for someone new” in. Voters also expressed concerns regarding the country's direction. A plurality of voters (50%) feel that the United States is headed on the wrong track, while 44% say that the country is headed in the right direction.

Almost one in three (30%) identified jobs and the economy as top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (16%), the war in Iraq (12%), health care (10%), and education (8%).

Pollster John Zogby: "This is predictably unpredictable. The President's job performance is down as is his re-elect. The country's direction is a net negative. Kerry seems to have weathered the first week of both blistering attacks from the President and Vice-President and his clumsy claim of support from foreign leaders. The President holds on to strong support among Republicans, but he is having trouble with Independents. Both sides have the gloves off and this tempo should continue because the race is just so tight.”

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of 1065 likely voters chose at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Wednesday, March 17th through Friday, March19. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.