STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 23 March

[ozymandius]

Tuesday March 23, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 306
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 102 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 155 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 368
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 850
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 22, 2004

Dow... 10,064.75 -121.85 (-1.20%)
Nasdaq... 1,909.90 -30.57 (-1.58%)
S&P 500... 1,095.40 -14.38 (-1.30%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.72% -0.06 (-1.69%)
Gold future... 3.72% -0.06 (-1.69%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Scott Middleton

<cut>
The market action during Monday’s trading session was driven by the geo-political events that occurred over the weekend. Most notably was the assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. A broad market sell-off ensued from the start, following the direction of the overseas markets. The only sectors finding a bid during the session were the safe-haven plays, treasuries and precious metals.

Airline stocks led decliners as investors worried that travelers may think twice about flying because of fresh terrorist fears. The AMEX Airline index was down 3.2 percent, its lowest level in seven months. Oil futures fell as much as 3 percent in afternoon trade, pressured by the prospect that OPEC members may decide to delay a cut in its production quota planned for April 1. The uncertainty compelled many traders to sell the integrated oil stocks during the session.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. SUPER BULL - Storm Watch Update from Jim Puplava

<cut>
The plain fact is that the commodities sector is in a new bull market and the precious metals are in a new super bull market. Price increases of 400-1000% are a bull market and not mere happenstance as some on Wall Street would have you believe. Like all new bull markets in their formative stage it has very few believers, Wall Street being one of them. Talk to industry executives and very few can see beyond present prices. The industry has been in the doldrums for so long it is hard for many executives to see gold or silver prices beyond where they are today. The lack of belief also applies to the gold newsletter industry where most writers have been bearish, cautious, or hesitant with doubts whether present prices can hold. This weekend’s edition of Barron’s featured an interview with the dean of Dow Theory, Richard Russell. The seasoned sage of the financial markets sees a big ugly bear market for stocks in the future. To quote Russell, “I’m afraid we are coming into one of the worst bear markets in history.” Russell advises his subscribers to hold cash, gold and gold stocks. Gold at $400 an ounce is “as cheap as dirt.” Russell sees gold prices above $1,000 an ounce. Today on cable TV one financial anchor’s response to the Barron’s Russell interview was that Russell likes gold, but “he’s getting on in age.” The wall of disbelief is still pervasive on Wall Street and within the industry.

<cut>
Reflation

Since the stock market bubble burst in 2000, the recession and terrorist attacks of 2001, the Federal Reserve and central banks around the globe and their respective governments have been fighting deflation with massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. Global governments are running large, and in some cases as in the U.S., massive budget deficits in order to counter economic weakness. Both money and credit have expanded exponentially in the U.S. Traditional standards of money growth no longer tell the whole story of credit reflation. Credit is expanding beyond the traditional venues of bank lending. Today, credit is expanded mainly through the financial markets through asset- backed securities. Every conceivable kind of debt from home mortgages and credit cards to auto and installment loans have been securitized. As of 3rd quarter 2003, national debt increased year-over-year by $1 trillion, while personal income grew by only $298.5 billion. Nominal GDP grew by $371.2 billion and consumer debt by $969.5 billion. Total debt expanded by $1.7 trillion. <1>

America’s debt bubble has grown to be so large that there is only one way out for this country and that is to inflate its way out of its debt burdens. I happen to be one of the few who believe that the Fed will not return to a tight monetary policy. The debt burden has become too large and the country now depends heavily on asset bubbles to keep the economy from collapsing. Last year households extracted between $600-700 billion out of their homes in the refinancing boom. All of that equity extraction went to pay ordinary bills of living and into stock speculation. It wouldn’t take much in the way of interest rate hikes to collapse this debt- laden economy. The last time the Fed tried ( beginning in 1999 and in 2000), it brought about a collapse in the stock market and a recession in short order. Today the economy is far more dependent on asset inflation in real estate, stocks, bonds and mortgages. A sharp rise in rates would bring about severe asset deflation in paper assets.

<cut>
Riding the Bull

The seven factors listed above are just a brief sketch of this new super bull market in precious metals that has only begun. The best part about it is that it has many skeptics, many worrywarts, and many nonbelievers. Those who have bought early have made small and large fortunes depending how they invested. But greater fortunes lie ahead. This bull market will be much bigger and different than the last bull market of the 1970s. As I wrote a couple of weeks ago in Open the Checkbook & Buy the Ounces, we can add a growing trade deficit, dwindling supply, and derivatives to the bull market equation. They are all drivers that will propel this super bull market much, much higher. Therefore it will have to be played much differently.

more...

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.02 Change +0.21 (+0.24%)

related article:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/23/rtr1308261.html

GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, dollar firmer but security worries weigh

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Cautious investors tentatively moved back into European and Asian stocks and sold government bonds on Tuesday but security concerns, in the wake of Israel's killing of a Hamas leader, kept sentiment fragile.

The dollar, which dropped on Monday, egded higher against the euro and safe-haven Swiss franc. Gold eased. U.S. stocks, which hit 2004 lows on Monday, looked set to rise.

But the possibility of revenge attacks for Monday's killing of Ahmed Yassin, spiritual leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, kept security concerns, evident in markets since the Madrid bombings of March 11, at the front of investors' minds.

"It at least raises the profile of possible terrorist threats even if it doesn't increase the likelihood for U.S. or European targets," said Daragh Maher, senior economist at ING Financial.

The dollar edged up against the euro <EUR=> and was last at $1.2310.

"Markets feel a little bit better and the euro was not able to break above $1.24 for the fourth or fifth time in the last three weeks," said Jim McCormick, head of currency research at Lehman Brothers in London.

Comments from Richmond Federal Reserve chief Alfred Broaddus and Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow weighed on the dollar. Moskow said worries about inflation were premature and that the Fed could be patient in raising rates.

...more...

Good Morning Ozy and all the Marketeers! :hi:

Everything looks green this morning - maybe it's just a sign of spring :shrug:

[54anickel]

4. Here's a related story I posted late to yesterdays thread - sorta scary

The link in yesterdays thread points to a different story now anyway, so thought I'd repost it.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/22/rtr1307913.html
Dollar softer on security worries

snip>
Dealers said security had become a more acute issue for the dollar after Israel killed the spiritual leader of the Hamas militant group, and as Pakistani troops remained locked in battle with a group of suspected al Qaeda fighters.

"In Japan, a lot of people may not be able to feel the pinch, but the assassination of (Sheikh Ahmed) Yassin is likely to develop into a nasty war and will raise the chances of the United States being a target of terror attacks," said Mitsuru Sahara, vice president at UFJ Bank's forex dealing group.

"This is bad for the dollar, and if the Dow (Jones Industrial average) were to fall below the key 10,000 line, it could spark dollar selling," Sahara said.

Still, investors were betting that the Japanese authorities would intervene to boost the dollar against the yen to help exporters ahead of Japan's book-closing on March 31.

more...

But I guess this is just Sahara's opinion, looking at the futures and dollar today, these concerns must not be shared. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

10. some more about the BoJ

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aOrHnX3bBQTE&refer=news_index

BOJ Scaling Down

Two-year notes may fall on expectations the Bank of Japan will scale back purchases of U.S. government debt after reducing its yen sales, said analysts at banks such as BNP Paribas SA.

The yen rose 4.8 percent to as much as 106.67 to the dollar in the two weeks to Friday on speculation Japan was paring back its record currency sales as the nation's economic growth accelerated. Japan's central bank buys dollars to prevent gains in the yen that threaten exporters' profits.

``Diminished BOJ intervention could put upward pressure on U.S. yields,'' as U.S. economic figures improve, said Robert Lynch, BNP Paribas's New York-based currency strategist.

The 1 5/8 percent February 2006 note yielded 1.48 percent. The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year notes instead of two-year Treasuries fell 1 basis point to 2.22 percentage points, and is down from about 2.4 percentage points a month ago.

The Treasury tomorrow will sell $26 billion of new two-year notes, which yielded 1.53 percent in pre-auction trading. Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, bought 45.4 percent of $26 billion of two-year notes sold a month ago, about the same percentage as in January, and up from 30.2 percent in December.

Lynch at BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, said demand from foreign official accounts at a sale of three- month Treasury bills yesterday decreased.

[54anickel]

12. Guess it will be interesting to watch tomorrows auction. Perhaps more

flight to safety will make up for the BoJ, but that's an awful lot of flight.

[JNelson6563]

14. Yes and if the markets are rising

that lessens the incentive to make that flight.

As you say, it should be interesting to watch. ;-)

Julie

[54anickel]

19. Eww, I didn't think of that. Thanks Julie. Here's the blather on this AM

futures - funny how we went from 5-10% overvalued to being oversold. I would think it should be considered about right with the pullbacks of the last couple of weeks. :shrug:

snip>
8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. The stage remains set for a higher open as futures indications continue to lift higher. Given the extent of yesterday's pullback and the declines over the past month, buyers have stepped out of the woodwork to bid the markets higher. Technology sectors are looking to lead the advance when the market opens.

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5. Futures indications climb higher and continue to point to a higher open for the cash market. There's a sense that yesterday's weakness rooted in geopolitical unrest was overdone and the market has come to be somewhat oversold. There are no economic reports and corporate newsflow is light, but GS reported better than expected earnings.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Futures market is higher in a rebound from yesterday's losing session that took the major averages lower by 1.2-1.6%. Overseas markets are registering mild gains, with the European DAX up 0.5% and CAC and FTSE up 0.3%.

[54anickel]

13. More on keeping rates low at the end of that article

Consumers Hurt

In addition to increasing demand for investments with fixed payments, the attack in the Gaza Strip yesterday and the bombings in Madrid may slow economic growth by hurting consumer confidence and spending.

The potential for a slowdown in the economy because of terrorism reinforces expectations the Fed can wait until 2005 to raise its benchmark interest rate at the lowest since July 1958.

Michael Moskow, president of the Fed's Chicago branch, yesterday in a speech in Chicago echoed Fed policy makers' March 16 statement that slower inflation allows them to keep their target rate for overnight loans at 1 percent while waiting for employment to rebound.

Alfred Broaddus, president of the Fed's Richmond branch, also said he sees a chance that inflation could slow further. Neither Broaddus nor Moskow votes on monetary policy.

Half of the 12 Fed voters will speak this week. Other officials commenting include Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, Fed Governor Ben S. Bernanke, and vice chairman Roger Ferguson.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

5. Anyone remember Greenspan raising the interest rates...

...for about 6-9 months prior to the 2000 election? Greenspan stated that the Fed was raising the interest rates in the face of rising inflation. I always found it curious that Greenspan was the only individual that was seeing ANY indication of inflation.

So, here we are four years later and Greenspan appears to be reversing his long-standing policy of raising interest rates to slow the growth of the economy. Anyone else see a political/ulterior motive just prior to the 2004 elections?

[ZR2]

6. Why would he slow the growth on the economy

when it obviously is not growing ?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

9. You know that, and I know that, as do most of the posters in this...

...forum, but the reports of a growing economy are no different now than they were back in 1999-2000. Why has Greenspan chosen NOT to raise interest rates now under the same publicly stated circumstances as opposed to his almost constant raising of the interest rates in 1999-2000?

My contention is that the actions of Greenspan in 1999-2000, coupled with the rise in the cost of gasoline and heating oils, destabilized the economy to such an extent that it was never able to recover, particularly under the economic policies of the NeoCon Junta and the events of 911.

[ZR2]

11. Too many kickbacks from Halliburton

and BushCO to raise rates. He knows where is bread is buttered and his bank accounts are filled.

[JNelson6563]

16. You make an excellent point

Sadly, you make observations that elude far too many.

Julie

[nolabels]

31. They coined the term STAGFLATION, then nailed Carter with it

They spent the full tilt putting out it was Carters fault, even though guys like tricky Dick Nixon were implementing things like price freezes in prior years



Stagflation: a term coined by economists in the 1970s to describe the previously unprecedented combination of slow economic growth and rising prices.

"Many of today's investors were still in diapers during the great stagflation of the 1970s. Those who weren't will never forget the darkest period in modern financial market history."
(snip)
http://www.internetional.se/toft/stagflation.htm

The Return of STAGFLATION
(snip)
A Brief History Lesson
Up until the 1970s, it was generally believed that recession and inflation could not occur at the same time. A slowing economy was supposed to bring stable prices, so inflation just could not be a problem when the economy slowed. That fact gave central bankers, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, a sure-fire method for combating high inflation: just employ tight monetary policies until inflation was choked to death. The Oil Crisis of 1973 shattered that myth and resulted in a new word in financial circles: stagflation.

The four-fold increase in oil prices imposed by OPEC in 1973-74 raised price levels throughout the economy while slowing economic growth at the same time. This left policymakers in a quandary. World central banks, worried about a severe economic slowdown, chose loose monetary policies and inflation took off.
(snip)
(snip)
The period 1973-74 saw the worst bear market in stocks since the Great Depression. The Dow fell 45%. The price of gold in London increased from $66/ounce to $186.50/ounce-an increase of 282% in less than 2 years.

There is no guarantee that history will repeat itself. But every investor needs some financial insurance just in case stagflation does return. Gold is uniquely suited to provide your wealth with protection in the event of a recurrence of the stagflation nightmare.

While investors have the opportunity to protect their wealth from the potential onset of stagflation, Washington and Wall Street better start noticing that we are headed down that road. The federal government is lulling the country to sleep with a false sense of security by playing games with inflation numbers. This may be a great tactic for getting incumbent politicians elected, but it will only magnify the effects of high inflation when they become more apparent. Unlike in 1973, when tensions in the Middle East peaked early in the stagflationary cycle, it is likely that conditions in the Middle East will get worse from this point. This means that, despite the fact that oil prices have already tripled in the recent past, they could go much higher still. Meanwhile, Wall Street wants you to believe that oil price hikes are no longer a major problem for the economy. History has been very unkind to those who ignore the warning signs of trouble when they appear.

Since you cannot depend on Washington and Wall Street to protect your wealth, you need to protect yourself. Protect yourself with an asset that does not depend on anyone's promises: GOLD.
(snip)

And if you don't have any wealth, don't worry about it, government will just be doubling your taxes :evilgrin:

Burps and bumps to be expected but it seems to me pressure on the market is downward. Shuffling numbers with fancy footwork, depletion allowances on garters or lace and bright rosy palms outlooks does not sound like something to build a future on, but one never knows :D

[54anickel]

7. Nah, the Fed was created as an independent agency, yada, yada, yada

He certainly seems to be ignoring what is blatantly obvious to the rest of mankind!

http://www.forbes.com/markets/bonds/newswire/2004/03/22/rtr1307850.html

snip>
Traders said the drop in yields may have made mortgage
portfolios nervous that rates could keep sliding lower, and so
they hedged by receiving fixed-rates in swaps.

snip>
Monday's session offered no economic data but reassuring
comments from Federal Reserve officials, who reiterated the
central bank's "patient" stance on policy and said excess
employment and production capacity meant there was little
immediate threat of inflation.

Chicago Fed Bank President Michael Moskow said inflation
worries were "premature" and that inflation was "extremely low"
now and would remain low this year.

Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus said that
it will take "clear evidence" of tighter labor market and
accelerating core inflation to warrant rate hikes.

One trader at a European investment bank said the market
was "still fighting" the low inflation story and the idea that
the Fed could be on hold through the end of the year, if not
longer.

"The market doesn't want to believe it," the trader said,
especially with commodity prices still soaring. The Reuters CRB
index <.CRB> of commodities hit its highest level since 1981 on
Monday.

But with the Fed's pledge sinking in, the December 2004
Eurodollar contract <EDZ4> punched up to a new contract high
during the session at 98.51 before closing at 98.505 -- a rise
of nearly a full percentage point since the start of the year.

Such a contract level suggests interest-rate markets are
expecting at most a quarter-basis point hike in the fed funds
rate this year.

With Treasury yields low, corporate debt sales picked up
again this week after last week's record $23 billion of
issuance. However, most companies are looking to keep their
debt at fixed rates in anticipation of an eventual rate rise,
rather than swapping it to short-term floating rates.

[UpInArms]

8. some more regarding inflation

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_baum&sid=aregdzRUwCzY

``The inflation risk for investors is not so much that core measures of inflation will move higher but that these measures are losing credibility in financial markets,'' Lee says.

It's one thing to exclude food and energy prices when they're volatile -- in both directions -- on a month-to- month basis. It's quite another ``when prices follow a sustained trend in one direction,'' Lee says. ``Food prices have risen every year for at least the past 40. Energy prices rose about 11 percent in 2002, 7 percent in 2003 and at a much sharper rate in early 2004.''

In the first two months of the year, energy prices as measured by the consumer price index rose an annualized 46 percent. It's unlikely these increases, along with the past year's surge in raw materials prices, are responsible for the acceleration in the core CPI in the last two months, according to Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Group.

``Given the estimated lags, this more recent acceleration in commodity prices should have its most noticeable effect on the core CPI either late this year or in 2005,'' Willmore says.

Pass-Through

What's occurring now is the ``logical progression in price pressures from commodities to producer prices at various stages of processing,'' he says. ``The gradual rise in (commodity) prices began in late 2002. Core consumer finished goods prices at the producer and import levels have been accelerating for some time.''

The core CPI rose 0.2 percent in both January and February, compared with an average monthly increase of 0.1 percent last year. Core commodity prices, which comprise 28 percent of the core CPI, appear to have stopped falling after three years. These prices registered no change in December and January and a 0.2 percent increase in February, no doubt encouraged by a dollar that has been falling for two years.

Commodity prices account for a very small portion of finished consumer goods prices. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke has said the effects are ``empirically minuscule,'' with a permanent 10 percent increase in commodity prices leading to a less than 0.1 percent increase in consumer prices.

``If you get a 50 percent increase, it starts to add up,'' Willmore says.

...more...

[54anickel]

15. At the IMF, Discord on How to Pick Next Chief

I posted this article last night in LBN, but thought it worthwhile to post it here as well. This could become very troubling in the future. The US and EU are not about to give up their control of the world's money.
Me thinks that thou protest too much.

The troubles we've recently seen in developing countries due to the policies of the IMF (Argentina, the Asia currency crisis, Mexico, etc) certainly point to issues in those policies and the idea of floating currency value and huge debt in developing nations.
These nations also have the example of "my buddy" Mahathir and Malaysia's apparent success of rebound after he basically told the IMF to stick their policies "where the sun don't shine". Argentina has also been attempting to stand up to the IMF.

JMHO, while I think that change in the IMF, World Bank & WTO would ultimately be good (in the sense of responsible and fair), it's not going to come easy and certainly not without a fight.

Here's the thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x437386

And here's a direct link to the article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13912-2004Mar21.html

In an unusual show of dissension within the board of the International Monetary Fund, directors representing more than 100 countries have issued a public statement calling for the next IMF managing director to be chosen "regardless of nationality."

The statement, in a press release issued by the IMF on Friday, was a rebuke aimed at Europe and the United States for a longstanding arrangement in which the top job at the IMF has always gone to a European and the presidency of the World Bank has always gone to an American.

Controversy over the method of choosing the IMF and World Bank leadership has mounted since the surprise resignation of Horst Koehler from the IMF's managing directorship on March 4 to run for president of Germany.

European officials have made it clear that they expect Koehler's successor to come from their ranks, and a number of them have signaled their preference for Rodrigo Rato, the finance minister in Spain's outgoing government. The newly elected Socialist government in Madrid has said it would back Rato's candidacy. But the selection process involves backroom dealings among European finance ministries, and some European news organizations have reported that France may oppose Rato.

This process has drawn criticism for years from economists, editorial writers and non-governmental organizations as an arbitrary system for appointing the chief executives at two of the world's most powerful institutions. Many insiders expect it to prevail again, because both U.S. and European officials value the control that the selection process affords them, and together they hold a majority of votes on the board. Votes of board members at the IMF and World Bank are weighted based on the size of the countries' financial contributions.

more...

[JNelson6563]

18. Very interesting

I did see this last night, well worth posting again in case most missed it! This is another item worth keeping an eye on.

This thread and you all are just great. My favorite. :-)

Julie

:toast

[UpInArms]

17. the chasm between

the US Fed Governors and the UK's bankers is unbelievable

http://www.thisismoney.com/20040323/nm76142.html

THE Bank of England today issued its starkest warning yet that the household debt mountain - which has now mushroomed close to £1 trillion - could ultimately trigger a nasty economic slowdown.

In a speech that shortens the odds on another interest-rate rise next month, Deputy Governor Sir Andrew Large warned that the fast-rising debt levels could 'at some point trigger a sharp demand slowdown that could have an adverse impact on monetary stability'.

Large, a member of the Bank's interest rate-setting monetary policy committee*, said the potential vulnerabilities from higher gearing* were rising as consumers take on debt at a faster rate than their incomes are growing.

He stressed that consumer debt was on the whole beneficial, and said he was more of an optimist than a pessimist over the dangers, but added: 'As with many things in life there are potential downsides.'

...more...

[54anickel]

20. So they don't buy into Greenspinism, hey?

[KoKo]

28. So the Brits have followed the Americans in Credit Card Debt to the Max?

Very interesting. It seems they are over-mortgaged, too. I wonder how the French and the Germans are doing with debt/credit compared to us and the Brits?

There's something here that maby needs more exploration in the Bush/Blair conjoined pursuits? The split with France and Germany? The Euro?

Do most Americans realize that GB is in very much the same shape we are?
How does this affect our Politics? Our "Imperial Wars?"

:shrug:

[54anickel]

32. HA! This is going to sound "way out there" and it's simply a rant

so don't take it too seriously.

Sometimes I think the EU has tricked the Empire wannabes of the US & UK. I picture them all in some big G-whatever meeting laying out this crazy plan to run up the debts of the world for whatever reason they came up with in their illogical thinking.

The plan is all laid out, the starting gun goes off and the EU only runs 3 steps from the starting line. Ha ha fooled ya!

I don't think France (and probably the rest of Europe, but de Gaulle, I think, was the most vocal) ever forgave the US for closing the gold window.

They were just making progress on building up some hefty gold reserves after being conned into selling a majority of it to the US when Roosevelt devalued the US$ from $20 something to $35/oz of gold. Well, who wouldn't sell their gold that was worth less than $35 on the market to the US? Sell for US$35, take those US dollars and convert back to their own currency and pocket a handsome little profit while supposedly sticking it to the US by "overcharging". But then there was the war, and Bretton Woods and the US$ becoming the world's reserve currency, the London gold pool and yada, yada, yada.

We've not been responsible world citizens with our charge of the world's money and I think they want to fire us from that job.

[KoKo]

46. Interesting. I wonder. ... It's very interesting speculation.

What you say. Could, indeed, make for interesting times to come.

[54anickel]

47. Ack, probably just more tinfoil hat stuff. But I keep an eye out for

hints.

[KoKo]

49. I'm with you on this one, but I need to read more links to get what I

think...and you are speculating on :tinfoilhat: and digest it! :D

[ozymandius]

21. Showtime

9:34
Dow 10,111.49 +46.74 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 1,923.94 +14.04 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,099.97 +4.57 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 3.735% +0.011

[ozymandius]

22. 10:17 figures and blather

Dow 10,095.19 +30.44 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,921.20 +11.30 (+0.59%)
S&P 500 1,098.06 +2.66 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 3.731% +0.007

U.S. stocks rally on Goldman, PalmOne earnings

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday as analyst-beating earnings from Goldman Sachs and better-than-expected results from Palm One took some of the focus away from geopolitical worries.

"It's a not a surprise that we may have a bounce back from an oversold position," said Mike Holland, fund manager of the Holland Balanced Fund. "The market has been pretty resilient given very unsettling circumstances."

Holland said a better-than-expected performance from Palm One was helping shift investor attention away from geopolitical concerns. Goldman Sachs also reported first quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations, while Limited Brand, owner of the Victoria's Secret store chain, raised its first quarter outlook.

story

By this story, I summize that Goldman Sachs, Palm One and Victoria's Secret will keep our interests safe from terrorists. :silly:

[UpInArms]

23. just goes to show that

the market's priorities are based on some weird perspectives.

No matter what happens (even if you're dead) you have to have a banker, a computer and some sexy lingerie

[54anickel]

24. HA!! SNARF! LOL

[ozymandius]

26. 11:02 and a tiny change

Dow 10,110.38 +45.63 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,920.66 +10.76 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,099.57 +4.17 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 3.722% -0.002

[54anickel]

29. Gotta love briefing.com blather on this one -

11:00AM: The major averages slip to new session lows, as buyers have become a bit more hesitant in view of the Nasdaq's inability to clear technically-significant levels earlier in the session...

Nevertheless, the major averages are able to maintain their standing in positive territory... Trade through the morning has been dominated by a sense that the recent pullback has been overdone, inciting buying interest, particularly in view of today's favorable newsflow...

It remains to be seen whether yesterday's pullback, indeed, marked a near-term bottom, yet keep in mind that longer-term Briefing.com looks to the historically-low interest rates and strong earnings growth as supportive factors for stocks...NYSE Adv/Dec 2020/979, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1861/979

[54anickel]

25. OPEC shaking a few hedgers out of the tree?

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/03/23/rtr1308240.html

Oil slips as OPEC wrangling unnerves edgy market

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as an edgy market was unnerved by OPEC wrangling over a possible delay to supply tightening measures, while traders looked ahead to weekly stock figures from the United States.

snip>
Prices have slipped from last week's 13 year closing-high of $38.50 for U.S. crude, helped down by speculation that OPEC might hold off on a cut it announced last month to take effect from April 1.

Cartel ministers meet on March 31 in Vienna to review policy, and a senior OPEC delegate told Reuters on Monday the producers' group could consider delaying the one million barrel cut in daily production until June.

snip>
U.S. futures' price peak last week was also helped by soaring Chinese consumption, low U.S. fuel inventories and fears of attacks that could disrupt oil supplies.

High prices have attracted concern from importer nations, who fear for an impact on economic growth.

snip>
The price of OPEC's reference basket of crudes slipped to $32.46 on Monday, still far above the top end of the $22-$28 range it says it prefers.

Analysts said the wait for weekly data on U.S. inventories, due for release on Wednesday, would keep price action subdued.

"We think prices will continue to remain on the defensive this week in light of what we think is the strong possibility that OPEC will decide on passing on the cuts," said Man Energy's Edward Meir.

"However, uncertainty about tomorrow's inventory figures and unease emanating from events in the Middle East should help check any major decline."

[Chicago Democrat]

30. Help! I have cash I need to invest?? Equities or Bonds?

Please help, fellow Democrats! I have a Bond maturing and I want to invest a chunk of cash.

I was going to by a Foreign Currency CD or Bond, I dont know what currency yet

But with the market so low, maybe I should buy stocks or mutual funds

What would you do?

[54anickel]

33. Hi Chicago Democrat.

I prefer not to give out investment advice, I think the Marketeers share that belief.

Too many unknowns, and the best advice I can give is not to take advice from internet boards - never know who's on the other end and how knowledgeable (or not) they are.

Here's an article you may find interesting and helpful as you try to come to a decision. Best quote from the article is: "It’s a painful condition to be in, but not as painful as doing something stupid.”

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P76789.asp

Sorry I can't offer you much more help in your decision. I wish you well in whatever you decide.

[54anickel]

27. Lots of folks buying socks again?

Maybe Easter baskets and goodies.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/23/rtr1308304.html

US chain store sales post healthy gains - report

NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - Sales at U.S. chain stores on a year-over-year basis remained healthy, suggesting rising gas prices and weakened confidence in the economy have not bothered consumers when it comes to shopping, a weekly report said on Tuesday.

Sales rose 0.2 percent in the week ended March 20 compared with a 0.5 percent rise in the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report. Sales for the week grew 7.1 percent compared with the same week a year ago, up slightly from the 7.0 percent growth pace of the preceding week.

"With March sales continuing to be on-to-above plan, there is no evidence, so far, that consumers are altering their spending patterns in the face of weaker consumer confidence, rising gasoline prices and a weakening stock market," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research.


Question - how do they figure these increases? Is it the total amount of sales or profit? Can some of this increase be attributed to higher prices of all that plastic junk and "socks" people are buying? :shrug:

[54anickel]

34. Lunchbreak numbers aren't doing so well

Dow 10,065.93 +1.18 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,903.48 -6.42 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,093.69 -1.71 (-0.16%)
30-yr Bond 4.673% -0.001

NYSE Volume 673,201,000
Nasdaq Volume 903,497,000

12:00PM: The market opened higher on sentiment that yesterday's weakness associated with geopolitical unrest, combined with generally lackluster trade over the past month, has been overdone... Supporting the early favorable bias were better than expected earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS 102.81 +1.51) and Family Dollar Stores (FDO 34.55 +1.64)...
Also contributing was the realization that the bulk of the pre-announcements during what would normally be an earnings warning season have been to the upside, with this morning's examples including upward Q1 revisions from Limited (LTD 19.71 +0.42) and Steel Dynamics (STLD 24.55 +0.55)... Despite the higher open, though, there was little conviction to the move higher as exhibited by the unimpressive volume totals... The Nasdaq's failure to clear a technically-significant level incited further selling efforts, driving the tech composite to the unchanged line and pressuring the broader market... Although the bulk of the sectors opened the session in the green, leaders of note are now limited to the transportation, insurance, apparel retail, aerospace & defense, diversified chemicals, and auto manufacturing stocks...

Among the laggards of note are the oil services, grocery retailing, and internet stocks... Elsewhere, the bond market is little changed with the 10-year note down 2/32, bringing its yield up to 3.72%...

[UpInArms]

35. market numbers at 12:27 EST

Dow 10,060.97 -3.78 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,902.76 -7.14 (-0.37%)
S&P 500 1,093.86 -1.54 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 3.720% -0.004

[54anickel]

37. Dang, forgot to put the time on mine. I don't think it's saying a lot for

our robust economic recovery when one of the big winners in the market is the Family Dollar Store. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

38. here's a side of blather for you

12:30PM: The market continues to weaken... Accordingly, the Nasdaq is showing mild losses now, the S&P 500 is slightly in the red, and the Dow is basically unchanged... Breadth figures are mixed, with advancers leading decliners on the NYSE and Nasdaq, but only slightly so... Up volume on the NYSE is outpacing down volume by a 3-to-2 margin, but on the Nasdaq down volume is leading up volume... Volume totals are running at a heavier pace than last week, but are moderate at best...

Overall, today's action is a continuation of the lackluster trade seen through most of the last month where the market has failed to respond to upbeat earnings news and upward guidance...NYSE Adv/Dec 1868/1266, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1536/1460

[54anickel]

39. Ewww, upward guidance - now just what is that supposed to mean?

Briefing.com "bullish't" cheerleading I assume?

[54anickel]

36. Gold's making a nice comeback from this morning

Looks like the author of this article spoke a bit too soon.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/23/rtr1308573.html

NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - COMEX gold eased Tuesday morning, taking a breather after a six-day safe-haven rally even as worldwide tensions made it difficult to be short gold, according to dealers.

snip>
"Two weeks ago there was no geopolitical risk factored into the price of gold, and now you could quantify that we have about $20 worth," said a bullion trader, pointing to technical resistance at $418. "So it's looking for little pullback."

Gold bottomed near $388 on March 3 as funds liquidated long positions accumulated during its lengthy bull run in 2003.

If April gold rises above the $420 mark, dealers said the focus will return to the 15-year high of $432.30 that was set on Jan. 6.

An underlying support for bullion was highlighted by market analysts GFMS in a report released late Monday. GFMS expects gold mining companies to reduce their hedge books by 11 million to 13 million ounces this year, more than 2003's 10 million ounces of dehedging.

snip>
A stronger dollar can discourage investment by making gold more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

Gold tended to track closely movements in the euro, before the recent Madrid train bombings, the death toll for which was adjusted on Tuesday to 190 from 202, and a slew of bombings in Iraq and resistance to the U.S.-led occupation.

But that euro-gold trading connection has frayed, as the safe-haven play came back in vogue. If anything gold might be more closely tracking the yen, which has made greater gains against the dollar in recent days.

"Generally, we've seen gold moving away a little bit from the foreign exchange markets, more like silver, which has not (paid) any attention to any other market really," said a trader at a precious metals refining company.

[54anickel]

40. Rally in the pits for the bluelight specials

Everyone can find something worth buying at the Family Dollar Store

Dow 10,107.12 +42.37 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,913.11 +3.21 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,098.67 +3.27 (+0.30%)
30-yr Bond 4.670% -0.004

NYSE Volume 899,174,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,172,205,000

1:30PM: Mostly sideways in the last half an hour, with the Dow sticking close to the flat line and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registering mild losses... The Nasdaq continues to underperform its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis... The semiconductor group continues to struggle... As mentioned previously, the semiconductor group has led the Nasdaq's decline through 8 of the past 9 weeks... This was also the group that was at the forefront of the Nasdaq's advance through 2003... Today, the sector opened higher, with the SOX index edging above its 200-day simple moving average at 463.14...
Nevertheless, the sector has weakened, inciting selling efforts in the Nasdaq and, consequently, the broader market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1779/1414, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1463/1591

[54anickel]

41. 2:24 Strange day, gold up, stocks up, dollar back to where it started

the session off, just a wee bit up.
US$
Last trade 87.76 Change -0.05 (-0.06%)
Settle 87.81 Settle Time 23:36
Open 87.72 Previous Close 87.81
High 88.18 Low 87.60


Dow 10,096.15 +31.40 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,911.67 +1.77 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,097.22 +1.82 (+0.17%)
30-yr Bond 4.670% -0.004

2:00PM: The latest dip has been used as a buying opportunity, with the major averages recovering the bulk of their earlier losses and lifting into positive territory... Volume remains moderate, so a degree of volatility could be expected, although the action over the past half an hour looks like program trading... The semiconductor sector, which has led the Nasdaq in today's session, has lifted into positive territory again... The transportation sector is among the winners of note, but otherwise there's not much in terms of strong leadership to the upside...
The banking sector, which is influential in determining market direction, is among the winning sectors, supporting the advance of the blue-chip averages...NYSE Adv/Dec 1814/1403, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1569/1512

[54anickel]

42. 3:03 update

Dow 10,123.71 +58.96 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq 1,919.92 +10.02 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,100.87 +5.47 (+0.50%)
30-yr Bond 4.661% -0.013

3:00PM: The last half an hour has been used as an opportunity to bid the major averages higher, with the Dow and S&P 500 lifting to their respective session highs... While the market's ability to lift off its session lows and into positive territory is encouraging, it should be noted that the tone of the trade is rather spiritless, with participants showing little conviction to the market... Despite the uninspiring tone, the market's fundamentals remain solid...

Given the historically low interest rates and strong earnings growth, Briefing.com looks for 2004 to be another up year, albeit not as strong as 2003...NYSE Adv/Dec 2045/1203, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1686/1417

[54anickel]

43. Question - Do you think the markets will be affected by the 9-11 hearings?

[54anickel]

44. 3:44 Funny how they started going down when Rummy took the stand.

:evilgrin:

Dow 10,092.22 +27.47 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,912.29 +2.39 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,098.08 +2.68 (+0.24%)
30-yr Bond 4.667% -0.007

3:30PM: With half an hour of trade remaining, the blue-chip averages are vacillating near their session highs, while the Nasdaq is also able to secure a standing in positive territory... The bulk of the sectors are in the green, with the oil services sectors being among the laggards of note... The group's weakness comes despite a rise in the price of crude oil (up $0.45 at $37.50/bbl)... The price of crude oil remains near its mutli-year highs ahead of OPEC's meeting on March 31...
According to the New York Times, some OPEC members are signaling their reluctance to proceed with the announced cuts in production as crude oil prices have climbed to their highest level since the first gulf war... NYSE Adv/Dec 2012/1241, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1716/1402

[JNelson6563]

45. Closing numbers

Dow 10,063.64 -1.11 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,901.80 -8.10 (-0.42%)
S&P 500 1,093.90 -1.50 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 3.711% -0.013

Crazy roller-coaster day, eh? Zowie!

Catch you all in the AM. :hi:

Julie

[54anickel]

48. HA!

The Rummy Factor? :evilgrin:

[KoKo]

50. Just so you all know, CNBC's Kudlow and Cramer had a "little gal" ask

"why are the NASDAQ and DJIA moving in tandem? They didn't answer the question that I heard before I hit my "Silence" button on my remote.

:shrug: