STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 26 March

[ozymandius]

Friday March 26, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 303
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 105 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 158 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 371
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 853
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 25, 2004

Dow... 10,218.82 +170.59 (+1.70%)
Nasdaq... 1,967.17 +57.69 (+3.02%)
S&P 500... 1,109.19 +17.86 (+1.64%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.74% +0.03 (+0.67%)
Gold future... 416.90 -0.50 (-0.12%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp with Martin Goldberg

Can the Stock Market Be Propped Up by “Organized Support”?
It Failed Miserably in 1929

There is a significant amount of public opinion that the stock market will be supported from crashing by some form of organized support such as the Plunge Protection Team (PPT). I don’t know how many times people have said to me that the stock market would hold up, at least until the presidential election. Count me in the apparent minority who thinks that no amount of real or perceived organized support will prevent the market from going where the law of supply and demand takes it. Accordingly, while I don’t think that the rally from the October 2002 lows was fundamentally healthy, I do think it was based on simple supply and demand for stocks. The rally should be respected, and treated objectively. There is a buyer and a seller for every transaction.

It is interesting and relevant that in 1929 as today, there was a tremendous amount of talk of “organized support” of the stock market. As the stock market drifted downward in September and early October of 1929 there was talk and rumors of the presence of organized support for the market.<cut>

The recent rally was in my view, driven higher by emotions of optimism and not fundamental value. Therefore, the market sits atop a foundation of feelings. If that optimism were to change for the worse, not only would value again “count,” negative emotions of fear are likely to take the market a lot lower than would be justified by valuations alone. This behavior in the stock market would then be consistent with every post bubble market since anyone kept track of such things. I’m not smart enough to come up with any reason why our current market mania should end in a different manner than every one that preceded it. Some people including my wife Diane, have wondered out loud whether the participation of the public in the stock market in previously unprecedented levels may result in a fundamental change in the way our stock market operates compared to the past. Is the presence and popularity of CNBC some how serving as a PPT? I think that unprecedented public participation was the single factor contributing the most to our bubble being the tallest and silliest of all previous manias. It was supported the most by those who, for lack of a better phrase, “don’t know what they are doing.” And clearly with mutual fund inflows currently relatively high, it seems that the public (in concert with the herd-like fund managers) is presently serving as a make shift PPT. However, this is not a foundation of strong intelligent hands in the stock market. When the stock market goes down, it not only will have the burden of absurdly high valuations on its back, there will also be the scared emotions of a public who “don’t know what they are doing.”

Today’s Market

Just like old times, the market was up big today, led by the Nasdaq. If you owned gold, you lost money. If you owned bonds you lost money. If you owned oil you lost money. If you owned dollars, you lost money. But if you owned promises in the form of Nasdaq stocks, you made a lot of money today. You also made some money if you owned anything falling under the general category of “stocks”. The Nasdaq was up over 3%, and the other major indices were up over 1.6% today. Small cap indices were up over 2.5%. Volume was heavy. OK, I’ll respect the rally; it was very impressive! It seemed as if the stocks that were down the most in recent weeks, were up the most today. Is there any indication whether this rally was based on fundamentals or the “mood of speculation”? Amazon was up over 6% today. Yahoo was up over 5-1/2%. Who needs dividends with these babies? The only reason vocalized by the press over the last couple of years to cause stocks to go down – the threat of terrorism – was still there today, yet stocks went up.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ze_dscherman]

2. Good morning Ozy, and Bye!

Past noon here in Germany, and I'll be out early. Weekend, finally! And thanks for putting up that thread!

:hi:

ze_dscherman

On edit: Bad economic news in Germany, business climate index falling again. Speculation on rate cuts.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1079419941249&p=1012571727092

[54anickel]

7. Another great wrap-up! Voices so many of the questions and concerns

raised here. Certainly seems to suggest there are no easy answers this time around.

JHMO, there is now the 3rd unknown of "How" to add to the "If" and "When". This is not my Grandma's "economy" anymore.

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.53 Change -0.37 (-0.42%)

related articles:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aMthV8QvqV2s&refer=us

U.S. 10-Year Treasuries May Fall; Gauge of Inflation Increases

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasuries may fall for a third day in Asia after an inflation measure increased, weekly jobless claims improved and stocks surged.

A reading of inflation used to adjust gross domestic product rose to 1.5 percent, from the 1.2 percent previously estimated, suggesting price gains will pick up. Faster inflation erodes the value of a bond's fixed payments and may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate from 1 percent.

``Annual rates of inflation will be steadily rising over the course of this year, and that means that bond yields will also have to start heading up,'' said Michael Thomas, an economist at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney. ICAP Plc is the world's largest interbank securities brokerage.

The 4 percent note due in February 2014 fell 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 102 2/32 as of 11:23 a.m. in Tokyo. The yield, little changed at 3.74 percent, is up from a closing level of 3.69 percent in New York on Tuesday. The yield on March 17 fell to an eight-month low of 3.65 percent.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the last three months of 2003 and corporate profits surged, suggesting growth and hiring may quicken this year, the Commerce Department in Washington said yesterday. The increase in GDP followed a gain of 8.2 percent in the third quarter, resulting in the fastest six- month growth in almost 20 years.

Rising share prices also hurt demand for fixed-income investments. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 1.6 percent, the largest gain in almost six months.

Consumer Prices

The Labor Department last week said core consumer prices were 1.2 percent higher in the 12 months ended in February. The increase compares with 1.1 percent in each of the previous three months, the smallest gain since 1966.

Treasuries may rise on speculation the Bank of Japan will buy U.S. government debt with some of the dollars it earned from sales of its own currency. Foreign central-bank holdings of Treasury and agency securities in accounts at the Fed rose by a daily average of $7.9 billion in the week to Wednesday to $1.2 trillion.

Japan's central bank probably sold yen yesterday, the Nihon Keizai newspaper said, without citing sources. The bank, on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, increased the pace of its purchases of dollars in January and February to curb the advance of the yen, which makes Japanese products more expensive in the U.S.

<snip>

`Currency Intervention'

``Even if the Ministry of Finance stops currency intervention right now, it still has dollar deposits,'' Yokoyama said. ``Most of the foreign reserves are going into the U.S. Treasury market.'' J.P. Morgan Securities, Inc. is one of the 23 primary U.S. government securities dealers that trade directly with the Fed.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=200403260650MKTNEWS_MAINWIRE_229F_1200

Dollar Squeezed Lower After Early Gains

LONDON Mar. 26 (MktNews) - Short-covering ahead of the weekend has helped to boost the euro higher against the dollar and yen in European morning trade Friday, while dollar-yen continues to test bids which traders link to support from the Bank of Japan.

EURO SUMMARY: Opened early European trade at $1.2125 -- Bids at $1.2115 supported in early Asia and Asian demand for euro-dollar then tripped stops at $1.2130. -- Offers capped at $1.2150 and early European trade saw the euro head lower ahead of the release of German Ifo data -- The euro traded through an option barrier but the earlier talk of large stops did not materialise. The euro was given at $1.2070 but quickly recovered back to $1.2100 -- The euro edged up to $1.2120 ahead of the release of in-line German Ifo data and showed little reaction after the release -- Continued short- covering ahead of the weekend lifted euro-dollar higher and offers at $1.2150 were absorbed on the way to levels over $1.22, aided by EUR/JPY short-covering. -- Further option barriers are tipped at $1.2050 and $1.2000 -- A plain vanilla $1.2075 strike option said to run off at the NY cut. -- Offers now seen to $1.2220/25 with stops above $1.2230

<snip>

JAPAN: Reported comments from Japanese officials Friday, ** TANIGAKI: Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said,

- No change in Japan forex policy.

- Closely watching forex markets.

- No comment on specific yen levels. ** MIZOGUCHI: Senior MOF official Zembei Mizoguchi,

- Boca Raton statement sufficiently stated G7 stance on forex.

- Declines comment on whether Japan intervened recently.

<snip>

ON THE US AGENDA:

US data includes personal income at 1330GMT, Michigan consumer sentiment at 1445GMT and the ECRI leading index for the March 19 week at 1530GMT.

The key speakers continue in the European afternoon. At 1400GMT, Alan Greenspan is due to make brief welcoming remarks at the Fed's models and monetary policy conference but there is no Q&A planned. At 1230GMT, Riksbank Deputy Governor Villy Bergstrom is due to speak on the topic "Is A Policy of Wage Solidarity Compatible With The Riksbank's Inflation Target?" At 1530GMT, ECB Executive Board member Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa is due to participate in a debate on "A Constitution for Europe" in Italy. At 1700GMT, Treasury Secretary John Snow is due to deliver a keynote address at the US Small Business Administration entrepreneurship conference in Washington and at 1900GMT Fed Governor Edward Gramlich will speak about the Fed's 1960s modeling work, which will be followed by a Q&A. Fed Governor Donald Kohn speaks at the same event from midnight GMT tonight.

...more...

Good Morning, Ozy and all the Marketeers! :hi:

Have a Great Day at the Amuzement Park :D

[54anickel]

16. Morning UIA, have you checked out the CRB? Did oil do that?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=w

Last trade 279.54 Change -3.87 (-1.37%)

Settle 283.41 Settle Time 15:07

Open 279.08 Previous Close 283.41

High 279.54 Low 279.01

[UpInArms]

21. I just went and looked

and it appears that the energy sector has fallen substantially in the past 2 days -

will see what else I can find.

[UpInArms]

27. Commodities-Profit-taking hits oil, metals, grains

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/25/rtr1312491.html

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Crude oil prices closed about four percent lower on Thursday as big speculators took profits amid doubts that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut output by as much as it has vowed.

Selling by fund investors to cash in profits also was felt in metals and grains. The Reuters-Commodity Research Bureau index of 17 futures closed 4.42 points lower at 278.99. On Monday, the index set a 23-year high of 285.28.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, doubts about the expected tightness in world oil supplies next month sparked selling which gathered strength as many joined in.

Crude was also weighed down by weekly U.S. government data on Wednesday that showed an unexpected and huge rise of 7.5 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week.

NYMEX May crude oil closed $1.50 lower at $35.51 a barrel. Crude had soared to a 13-month spot high of $38.50 on Monday as the April contract expired. That was the highest since $39.99 on Feb. 27, 2003, in the lead-up to the U.S.-led war on Iraq.

"This market has been so overvalued for so long that suddenly it seems like the bottom has fallen out," said Tim Evans, market analyst at IFR Energy Services.

...more...

[54anickel]

29. This part is interesting - where did this come from after all those

reports of short reserves a week or so ago?

Crude was also weighed down by weekly U.S. government data on Wednesday that showed an unexpected and huge rise of 7.5 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week.

[UpInArms]

32. articles about the oil reserves

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4663638

The Energy Information Administration reported U.S. inventories of crude oil had increased by 7.5 million barrels to 288.6 million barrels after a surge in imports, particularly from OPEC member Nigeria, to an average 10.1 million barrels per day (bpd).

The downward momentum gathered pace on Thursday after Nigeria said it was already too late for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to go ahead with a cut of 1 million bpd planned for April 1.

"When we met in February, the conception was we would have to confirm the cut in order to influence liftings. We have not done that," Edmund Daukoru, Nigeria's presidential adviser on oil, told Reuters.

"We are meeting on March 31 and expect the cut to take effect the following day, but the timing for the practical impact has slipped. There is effectively a delay in the announcement of the cut," Daukoru added.

Nigeria, where rickety refineries limit domestic crude consumption, is set to produce around 2.45 million bpd of crude next month, well above its 2 million bpd OPEC quota.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham told reporters the United States is talking with OPEC members about the group's production ahead of the cartel's meeting next week in Vienna. But he declined to elaborate, saying the policy of the administration was to keep the discussions "private."

...more...

and

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=201344

HOUSTON, Mar. 24 -- Futures prices for crude and petroleum products rebounded Tuesday as US Energy Sec. Spencer Abraham told a Senate hearing that the administration plans to keep filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

At a hearing on his department's annual budget request, Spencer said SPR additions had a "nearly negligible" impact on market prices and noted that the fill with oil taken as in-kind payment of royalties on offshore leases is "predicated on national security concerns."

Three US Senators—Charles Schumer, D-NY, Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., and Harry Reid, D- Nev.—called Tuesday for the administration to release SPR to increase supply and drive down prices.

The New York-based Petroleum Industry Research Foundation Inc. (PIRINC) earlier reported that a bipartisan political decision to fill SPR through the US Minerals Management Service's program to take oil, rather than cash, in payment for royalties on offshore leases, is not the cause of the run up of world oil prices (OGJ Online, Aug. 19, 2003).

In a report issued Wednesday, Michael Rothman and Steven A. Pfeifer, first vice- presidents and senior analysts at Merrill Lynch Global Securities Research & Economics Group, New York, noted that unnamed pundits who earlier predicted a collapse of oil prices to $18/bbl are now forecasting a retail price spike for US gasoline to $3/gal. "Frankly, such a drastic rise in average domestic retail prices in unrealistic, requiring the 'gas crack'"—the per-barrel spread between unleaded gasoline and crude oil, which is currently at $10.75/bbl—"to rise another $53/bbl from current levels or, alternatively, crude prices having to rally another $53 from today's price," they said.

<snip>

US crude inventories increase
Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration said early Wednesday that commercial US oil inventories, excluding SPR, increased by 7.5 million bbl to 288.6 million bbl during the week ended Mar. 19. Those supplies remained 18.9 million bbl below the 5-year average for that time of year, however.

Gasoline inventories declined by 100,000 bbl to 199.5 million bbl last week, 8.5 million bbl below the 5-year average. US stocks of distillate fuels fell by 1.4 million bbl to 110.4 million bbl, with a drop in heating oil more than offsetting a small increase in diesel fuel.

Input into US refineries increased by 109,000 b/d to nearly 14.6 million b/d last week, with the biggest gain on the Gulf Coast. US imports of crude were up by 610,000 b/d to an average 10.1 million b/d. "Crude oil imports into the Gulf Coast increased by nearly 1.2 million b/d and at nearly 6.9 million b/d was the highest weekly average ever," said EIA officials.

Oil prices rise
The May contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes increased by 40¢ to $37.45/bbl Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the June position advanced by 38¢ to $36.65/bbl. On the US spot market, West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Okla., gained 57¢ to $37.70/bbl.

...more...

(edited becuz I kant spail)

[54anickel]

33. Thanks UIA. I feel like such a slacker for not looking those up myself.

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Marketeers!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

What a difference a day makes. This is not intended to sound trite, though some sense of logic can be infused with the illogical to explain the numbers we saw yesterday. As Martic Goldberg suggests, the markets seem to be stroked to accommodate people who do not clearly know what they're doing.

I notice that some of the comments on yesterday's thread pointed to slashing the employment rolls, resulting in higher corporate profit numbers. That's nothing new of course - just like war, famine and pestilence are not new. Such practices seem to be part of the new ugly reality of globalization and the demented notion that fiscal health is mirrored in corporate stock valuation.

Speaking of globalization: we are ten years living alongside this beast. This was promised to be a prize cash cow for all. It has, in my estimation, started to look like a mangy razorback with kennel cough, supported by a wooden leg and handicapped with rheumy-eyed sight. Still, the cognitive dissonance stemming from my view of things conflicting with the lemming drive toward the "buy! buy! buy!" window makes my head hurt.

And with these joyous words, I leave you for the day. Much work has to be done away from the computer.

I sincerely hope that you have a wonderful weekend!

best to you all,
Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

5. Bye Ozy. Great visual on "the beast"! Have a great weekend.

[UpInArms]

6. Bye Ozy!

Have a Great Day and a Terrific Weekend!

I will be gone for a couple of weeks after the 30th of March - family and work have scheduled some traveling for me.

Thanks for this daily thread - I shall miss it, but will try to catch a bit of borrowed computer time along the way.

[54anickel]

8. Economic indicators do not point to a market drop this year

Interesting take on the tax-cuts and loose money policies.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/jackson032304.html

big snip>
The rise in commodity prices strongly suggests to me that the Fed’s ‘cheap money’ policy is igniting another boom. The Fed has pushed short-term interest rates down to a 45-year low, leaving the federal funds rate at 1 per cent. This has lowered the commercial banks’ prime rate for many short-term consumer and business loans to 4 percent, the lowest rate since the early sixties.

Therefore I would have expected these low rates to encourage mines to increase their output and factory production to expand. Last Monday’s Fed report seems to indicate that this is happening.

The Bush tax cuts complemented the effects of the Fed’s monetary policy. Cutting the tax rate on dividends to 15 per cent boosted investors’ savings. Now these cuts provided a clear demonstration that changes in taxes change behaviour; businesses that hoarded cash are now paying it out to their shareholders, some of them for the first time.

High corporate tax rates combined with the destructive effects of the double taxation of dividends distorted investment decisions by encouraging firms to hold on to their returns. Freeing up this cash will provide additional saving for new ventures and so add to the economy’s flexibility.

Current stock yields are a conundrum for some commentators. Although yields are particularly low historically, analysts emphasise that the rise in share prices during the boom the artificially lowered the yield. This is true, as far as it goes. However, though overall yields are pretty low Dow stock yields appear comparatively high.

Business Week recently observed that "earnings from continuing operations at S&P 500 companies . . . leaped 28 percent, compared with the year-earlier period." That firms are paying out dividends indicates that they are increasingly confident that profits will continue to rise.

snip>
What this comes down to is that share prices could continue to rise right into 2005 as excess capacity falls, investment rises and output and productivity continue to increase. Barring unforeseen events, such as a savage increase in energy prices, I think current indicators suggest that a severe drop in share prices later this year is highly unlikely.

The downside is that loose monetary policies eventually result in a bust. One only has to think of the consequences of the Johnson administration’s monetary policy to get a good idea of where the US economy is heading.

On a final note: some supply-siders argue that even though cutting taxes stimulates economic growth the economy still needs an accommodative money supply to create enough liquidity to fund new projects and generate investment incentives.

This is dangerous economic nonsense: the same nonsense that brought on the Great Depression and gave us the Clinton boom and bust. This fallacy that the classical economists disposed off so long ago is now paving the way for another recession.

[54anickel]

9. The Productivity Miracle and Other Myths and Fairy Tales

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/benson032704.html

Lately, so much has been made of the New Economy and the "miracle" of high productivity growth as a reason why inflation has remained so low. During this time, the Fed has run the easiest monetary policy since a Latin American country kicked off hyperinflation. Moreover, the talking heads on "CNN Bubble Vision" have become instant classical economic luminaries in their own shallow minds, fawning at the Fed Chairman and proclaiming his genius that the low rate of job growth is caused by this miracle.

We agree there is a connection between high productivity and the lack of job growth, but we also notice the destructive trends that are the root cause of high productivity. We are led to assume that new capital invested in American factories is so productive that we can have more productivity without additional labor. However, while superior capital investment does increase labor efficiency, the factors being measured in America have nothing to do with this cause of productivity. In this country, we could certainly have a policy guaranteeing that 70 percent to 80 percent of manufactured goods consumed in America are actually made in America. Such a policy would add over 6 million manufacturing jobs in the United States and another 10 million service jobs that support the high paying manufacturing jobs.

Sadly, the real causes of the productivity miracle are "purposely hidden in plain sight" while the Chairman of the Federal Reserve tells us to look the other way, and believe in fairy tales.

We noticed the first indication of something going horribly wrong when Greenspan went to Capitol Hill for his annual testimony. On the first day, he went to the Senate and praised productivity growth. On the next day, he immediately went back to tell the House that retired workers on social security should not only not share in this productivity miracle, but they should work longer and harder and receive less benefits! Surely, we should have expected that he would be urging Congress to increase, not decrease, the benefits to those receiving a pension!

In looking at the world as it really is (and not what our government and Fed officials would like us to believe it is), at least two-thirds of productivity growth comes from the convenient ways that productivity is actually measured.

The first big con is measuring the investment in computer-type equipment. Because computers are running faster, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "BLS", claims their prices, and that of other technology related goods, have fallen. In addition, because we have bought so much more in the way of technology, such as computers and cell phones, this factor not only pulls down the CPI and Price Deflator in the GDP, but it accounts for a large fraction of growth in the GDP. While the same amount of dollars are being spent on things like computers, the price for the same amount of computing power, speed and disk storage, is dropping like a stone. Pushing inflation down, by definition, forces production up which moves productivity upward.

more...

[54anickel]

10. The Silver Lining (for the Captain!)

Graphs are worth a thousand words.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/tacinv032704.html

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
--Mahatma Gandhi

snip>
Short silver contracts on the COMEX regularly exceed 300 million ounces with less than a third of that amount available on the exchange for delivery into these contracts.

snip>
NY Attorney General Elliot Spitzer has been alerted to possible illegal price manipulation in the silver futures market and an investigation may be forthcoming.

[CaptainClark23]

22. Thanks 50/50!

What a picture to awake to. I recall the much-maligned Junker saying to watch the Rand and the Swiss Franc in relation to PM's...

I'm watching alright!

Re: Spitzer. I wonder if its a matter of having a better case for Silver manipulation than Gold, or if Gold manipulation is just too 'delicate' a matter to bring to open investigation?

Going after the Silver manipulation might indeed be a better strategy.

Have a great day, and thanks for thinkin' of me...

[54anickel]

28. re: Spitzer

The gold manipulation lawsuit started long before Spitzer became involved in all of his investigations. GATA has been fighting that one a for long time in the courts and it goes to discovery, I believe, next month.

The claims re: sliver manipulation are newer. They've approached Spitzer, along with many other avenues. It doesn't necessarily mean they will get a response quickly, but it is good to see GATA has gotten involved with it now. From watching the daily silver charts at INO, it does look as though there's a lot of de-hedging going on - much like in gold.

I was hoping that report would make your day. B-)
Like many of the "gold-buggy" reports, I think they tend to exaggerate the heights that this may lead to, but the basis of the report looks good for silver none the less.

[Systematic Chaos]

11. The gold and exchange rate graphs ain't playin' around today....

I see gold has shot up $4 in half an eyeblink and the dollar isn't faring well at all. I would be very surprised if today weren't at least a moderately down day for the markets.

[54anickel]

12. Bonds and Deflation

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/milhouse032704.html

snip>

One of the most important effects of the on-going strength in bonds is psychological because regardless of the fact that much of the strength can be attributed to government intervention (aggressive buying of US bonds by the Japanese central bank and the Fed's implied promise to hold the official short-term rate at a very low level until the employment situation improves), many analysts won't believe that an inflation problem exists until after bond prices move considerably lower. In other words, the consensus view is that if the US really was facing a serious inflation threat then bond prices would be much lower (long-term interest rates would be much higher); and this is despite the mountain of evidence that the on-going bond price strength has nothing to do with inflation/deflation.

Now, the knock-on effect of very few people perceiving an inflation problem is that the problem is able to grow because nobody in power, least of all the governors of the Federal Reserve, is interested in trying to solve a problem that supposedly doesn't exist. That is, persistent strength in bond prices prevents any obstacles from being placed in the way of additional inflation because the bond price strength places a smoke screen in front of the underlying inflation problem. This, in turn, means that the prices of those things that benefit from a burgeoning inflation problem are able to move much higher than would otherwise be possible. So, the longer that bonds can remain firm the higher the prices of gold and commodities will eventually move. By the same token, there won't be any need for us to worry about commodities and gold experiencing anything other than routine bull-market corrections until bond prices move sharply lower.

snip>

We think it is very likely, though, that the PERCEIVED deflation threat will once again be met by a very aggressive inflationary response on the part of policy-makers. Furthermore, given the Fed's enormous power in the field of money/credit creation there is a high probability that the inflation problem will be made much worse before we have to seriously consider the possibility of genuine deflation. And, if policy-makers are lucky (they will need to be extremely lucky) then their efforts to magnify the existing inflation problem will once again be masked by stability or strength in the bond market.

A point that deserves to be emphasised, though, is that when the Fed and other central banks facilitate the creation of additional money/credit in order to 'address' a perceived deflation threat all they are actually doing is pushing an even bigger problem into the future. This is because deflation isn't the problem; the problem is that way too much new money and new debt has been created over the years. That is, there is an inflation problem and deflation, in fact, is the only viable long-term SOLUTION to the problem.

Further to the above, at the root of the matter is the common misapprehension that deflation is the problem and that inflation might be a solution, or, at least, a 'bandaid' that can be applied in order to make the healing process less painful. In our opinion, though, inflation is the PROBLEM and deflation is the SOLUTION; and the problem will continue to get worse until the political will exists to fix it.

[54anickel]

13. Consumer spending barely budges

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4607555/

WASHINGTON - Consumers, a key force shaping the economic recovery, were more restrained in February, increasing their spending by only 0.2 percent.

The over-the-month increase reported by the Commerce Department Friday came after consumers boosted spending by 0.5 percent in January, according to revised figures. That was slightly stronger than the 0.4 percent first estimated a month ago.

Even though the increase in spending in February fell short of the 0.5 percent rise that economists were forecasting, consumers have been keeping their wallets and pocketbooks sufficiently open to move along the economy’s recovery, analysts say.

And, they say that tax refunds arriving in mailboxes during the spring may give consumers an incentive to spend more, juicing up economic growth.

Americans’ incomes, meanwhile, rose by solid 0.4 percent in February, following a 0.3 percent increase the month before. Income growth — an important factor in peoples’ ability to spend in the months ahead — was slightly better in February than the 0.3 percent increase that economists had been predicting. :eyes:

The income and spending figures are not adjusted for price changes.

[Systematic Chaos]

14. So, in reality, we're spending just a bit LESS...

...once you factor in fuel price increases and the like.

Who here didn't see THAT coming a mile away?

[UpInArms]

15. this rise in income

Americans’ incomes, meanwhile, rose by solid 0.4 percent in February, following a 0.3 percent increase the month before. Income growth — an important factor in peoples’ ability to spend in the months ahead — was slightly better in February than the 0.3 percent increase that economists had been predicting.

were did it come from?

Was it the bonuses that those at the top got from axing all of those at the bottom?

[54anickel]

19. US consumers' income, spending drop

I had to go outside the US to get a clear view without rose colored glasses. :eyes:

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=886775;s=rollingnews.htm

US consumers' incomes and spending both declined in February in inflation-adjusted terms, the Commerce Department estimated today.

Real US consumer spending was flat in February, the slowest growth since September, after a 0.2pc increase in January.
Real disposable incomes - adjusted for inflation and after taxes - increased 0.2pc in February after rising 0.6pc in January.

In nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation - incomes rose 0.4pc February after a 0.3pc rise in January. Nominal spending increased 0.2pc in February after rising 0.5pc increase in spending in January.

January's figures were revised higher by a tenth of a percent. Economists were expecting a 0.3pc rise in nominal incomes and a 0.5pc gain in consumer spending.

Prices increased at a 1.5pc annual rate in February after a 1.6pc rate in January. The core personal consumption expenditure price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 1.1pc on the year in February.

more...

[Frodo]

20. Boy, are we tough to please or what?

Incomes stay steady or rise slightly while spending goes up and everyone here is talking about the dangers of everyone going deeper into debt.

Now income is rising faster than spending (faster than last month and faster than expected) and that isn't a good thing either.

The first situation is bad for individuals but good for the economy while the second is bad for the economy but good for individuals.

All we concentrate on is the bad?

[UpInArms]

23. not concentrating on the bad

trying to ascertain that the increase is affecting the general population as there appears to be no real let-up in the layoff notices (despite the Manpower survey) and until there are more jobs created than inflow of available employees, there cannot be a measurable "recovery" that is broad-based and sustainable.

Too many states and municipalities are having budgetary problems, laying off teachers and service area personnel, plants are still closing and revenues will continue to fall - which in turn cause a need for tax increases to keep the current services in place.

Not focusing on the "bad", but searching for the "good" and if these numbers are incorrect or do not reflect the situation correctly, we don't make the proper basis for judgment.

[54anickel]

30. Absolutely. In light of this weeks report from Goldman regarding the

"questionable" figures the Fed has been promoting, it is in one's best interest to don the "critical thinking cap" and delve a bit deeper into how the numbers reported have been derived.

[UpInArms]

34. here's some more regarding pay cuts for workers

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/03/26/News/164279.html

The Little Rock data marketer's last major downsizing came in June 2001, when it laid off more than 400 workers or about 7 percent of its work force. That followed efforts by the company to save millions of dollars by asking nearly 2,000, or 36 percent of its eligible work force, to take voluntary pay cuts in exchange for stock options.

Recent rumors about layoffs and a possible merger have been swirling ever since the company announced a seven-year partnership with Accenture in December. Accenture is one of the nation's largest technology consulting and outsourcing firms.

and there have been numerous other news stories regarding pay cuts by employees in order to save their jobs.

I know many people who are having this situation and it does concern me - especially when I read about the increase in bonuses for those that are laying off employees.

[54anickel]

38. A bit more - seems a lot of calls for pay cuts and not just the airlines

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&edition=us&q=%22pay+cuts%22+concessions&btnG=Search+News


Also seems there are more giving instead of denying executive bonuses.

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&edition=us&q=executive+bonuses

[54anickel]

17. Treasuries Soft on Spending, Price Data

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20040326&ID=3530589


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasuries prices were lower on Friday after seemingly soft U.S. consumer spending data were overshadowed by upward revisions to a key U.S. inflation indicator.

Personal spending rose 0.2 percent in February when analysts had looked for a 0.4 percent gain while real spending, adjusting for inflation, was flat. Personal income rose 0.4 percent, a little more than forecast, but disposable income rose a lower than expected 0.2 percent.

However, that softness was balanced by upward revisions to the core price index for personal consumption expenditures. Annual growth in the core PCE rose to 1.1 percent in February having been raised to 1.0 percent in January from the original 0.8 percent.

[Coventina]

18. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning everyone!

Today's reading is LIMITATIONS changing to REUNITING.

Here are the changing lines from Limitations: "Although you might like to take certain measures in the current pursuit of your aims, when you see obstacles ahead you should stop. Stay within the limits and collect your strength quietly. Excessive restrictions demanded of others will eventually meet with resentment. Nothing worthwhile can be accomplished in this way and misfortune may result."

Here is a quote from REUNITING: "You must devote yourself to a cause or task of some real significance in the world, or perhaps participate in an event which brings together the members of your community."

I'm not quite sure what Ching is saying about the market with this reading. I hesitate to make any predictions based on this info.

Well, I'm off to go turn in my resignation to my job today. I'm giving up a secure job with benefits to go to grad school. I'm a little scared!

[54anickel]

24. Best wishes to you Coventina -

Don't look at it as "giving up" a secure job (is there such a thing). You are "enhancing" yourself and with that comes greater "opportunity". :hi:

[UpInArms]

25. thanks for the reading Coventina!

and I will keep my fingers crossed for you on your changes - hoping that all take a positive ascent :)

Congratulations on Grad School :thumbsup:

[Coventina]

45. Thanks to both of you!!

DU is the best online community EVER!

:grouphug:

[UpInArms]

26. market is open and the numbers at 9:44 EST

Dow 10,195.19 -23.63 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,964.15 -3.02 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,107.78 -1.41 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 3.761% +0.022

[54anickel]

31. 10:20 numbers and blather

edit to add the 10:30 blather

Dow 10,200.67 -18.15 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,966.27 -0.90 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,107.89 -1.30 (-0.12%)
30-yr Bond 4.711% +0.022


10:30AM: Market gives up some of it gains off the better than expected Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index as the day's choppy trade continues... The indices have essentially resumed the same lackluster trade of the past couple of weeks in response to yesterday's gains... The move in the Dow was its largest point gain since October, and the move in the Nasdaq was its largest point gain since March 2003...
Buyers have therefore taken a backseat to sellers this morning with geopolitical concerns still weighing heavily, and worries that the March employment report (slated for next Friday) and the Q1 (Mar) earnings season (starting in mid-April) might be disappointing... NYSE Adv/Dec 1570/1202, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1460/1122

10:00AM: Stocks retrace their opening lows and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 land in positive territory following the better than expected revision to March Consumer Sentiment... The index rose to 95.8 (consensus of 93.5) from 94.1 in an encouraging sign that the consumer is weathering the recent fall in the stock market, the rise in energy prices, and the slowdown in job gains pretty well... Technology has rebounded from its earlier losses, and joins financial as one of the strongest industry groups...
The latter is up today thanks to a reversal in the brokerage stocks, which have lagged the broader market despite Lehman Brothers (LEH 82.99 +0.57), Bear Stearns (BSC 84.70 +0.03), and Goldman Sachs's (GS 102.34 +0.49) impressive reports this and last week...NYSE Adv/Dec 1211/1318, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1109/1233

9:40AM: Stock market gets off to a sluggish start, weighed down by a weak tech sector... Yesterday's sharp recovery off the week's earlier losses has dulled the inventive for buyers to step in and accumulate shares... Today's earnings news has been light, and has forced investors to return their focus back to the uncertain geopolitical situation... Economic data have been fairly well-represented, with February Income and Spending checking in mixed - at 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively - with consensus estimates...

The last economic report of the day is due out at 9:45 ET, and the market is looking for 93.5 for the revision to March Michigan Consumer Sentiment...

[UpInArms]

35. market at 10:57 EST

Dow 10,201.26 -17.56 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,966.14 -1.03 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,108.47 -0.72 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 3.780% +0.041

[maddogesq]

37. The dose of Cialis didn't act as advertised on this market.

It can't "keep it up" for more than a day.

I said it before, and I will say it again:

YOu will get better odds at winning in Vegas.

[htuttle]

40. Vegas is better regulated than the stock market as well

Plus, they have a free buffet and Wayne Newton.

The stock market can't TOUCH that!

(I mean, can you imagine him down there on the trading floor with a microphone, singing, "Danka Schoen, darling danka schoen..."? Ain't gonna happen!)

[54anickel]

41. Haha! Can't touch that at ALL! n/t

[maddogesq]

42. Yep. You can go to that buffet at The Rio and eat yourself sick...

like I did, I ate Sushi, pizza, and 20 different kinds of cuisine on top of beer and tequila. My girlfirned lost me back at the casino at our hotel, but later found me sprawled on the the bed in our room...sideways. Next day, I hit a little chuck of money at the Carribbean Stud Poker table.

Now that's livin...:)

[UpInArms]

36. US consumer sentiment up a tad but well off highs

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4672282

NEW YORK, March 26 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment rose unexpectedly in March but job worries still prevented Americans from feeling too cheery about the economy, a survey released on Friday showed.

The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer confidence edged up to to 95.8 in March from 94.4 in February, said market sources who saw the subscriber-only report.

"It's nothing to get too excited about," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics.

A preliminary mid-month reading had left the index at 94.1, while economists had been looking for a dip in the final sentiment measure to 93.7.

The index stood at 103.8 but has tumbled since then as a growing impatience with the economy's inability to generate jobs deters a full-fledged rebound in confidence.

Wood said he was surprised that rising gasoline prices, sagging stock markets and the deadly bombings in Madrid had not been a greater drag on consumers' spirits.

<snip>

The University of Michigan preliminary survey is based on telephone interviews with about 250 households on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The final survey at the end of the month covers about 500 households.

[54anickel]

39. This part seems to point to a sustainable recovery -

/sarcasm :eyes:

As long as Americans have extra money from tax refunds, he said, they will remain relatively confident in their financial position. But that does not mean they are not worried about losing their jobs.

"Current conditions are telling me, 'give me the tax refund', but expectations are saying 'hey, unless we create a lot of jobs, I just don't think I can be terribly optimistic about the economy,'" Wood said.

The current conditions index climbed to 106.8 in March from 105.7 in February, while the consumer expectations component inched up, to 88.8 from 88.5 last month.

snip>
Spending is expected to hold up at least until later in the tax season, when refunds from the last round of tax cuts feed through.

[JNelson6563]

43. Good point 54--as usual

What will they do late spring and in the summer this year? There is no money to send out as bribery checks and last year's will be long ago spent and forgotten. Not to mention they had to be claimed in this year's taxes. Funny how so many didn't read the fine print and see those checks were advances, not really bonuses.

11:27 and here's the picture we see for the moment:

Dow 10,230.51 +11.69 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,971.42 +4.25 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,111.08 +1.89 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 3.782% +0.043


Today's toon has me thinking "word association" and I see today's graphs. The highly technical term of "zig-zag" is what comes to mind. Not very high or low spikes so much as like a row of pickers pointing both up and down.

Hope everybody's faring well! :hi:

Julie

[54anickel]

44. Good to see you Julie! How's the "revolution" coming?

[54anickel]

46. 12:07 lunchbreak check in - Then I've got to get to work. Got two

pooches pestering me to step away from the computer and give them their spring hair-dos. I'll try and check back later during treat breaks.

Dow 10,253.41 +34.59 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,972.48 +5.31 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,113.45 +4.26 (+0.38%)
30-yr Bond 4.759% +0.070

NYSE Volume 579,701,000
Nasdaq Volume 740,113,000

12:00PM: Stocks have been all over the map this morning, opening in modestly negative territory and then rallying off their lows, as investors have been in an indecisive mood... Advancers and decliners have basically matched each other, and no industry group has emerged as a true leader... Investors have weighed the positives (still low interest rates, the recent correction off the highs) against the negatives (a troubling geopolitical climate, an upcoming employment report that might again miss expectations), and have decided the best course of action is the one of least resistance...
As a result, trading has been relatively subdued (on moderate volume levels) in an understandable reaction to yesterday's large rally... Transportation, brokerage, and gold have found some buying interest, whereas semiconductor has lost ground... Economic data this morning were fairly mixed and have not influenced the market noticeably... February Personal Income and Spending came in at 0.4% (consensus of 0.3%) and 0.2% (consensus of 0.5%), respectively, and the revision to March Consumer Sentiment was slightly larger - at 95.8 - than expected... NYSE Adv/Dec 1798/1236, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1741/1175

[UpInArms]

47. market numbers and blather at 1:27 EST

Dow 10,244.14 +25.32 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,970.99 +3.82 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,113.09 +3.90 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 3.826% +0.087

1:25PM: Stocks edge a bit higher but have yet to stage a major breakout... The market has taken a breather today after yesterday's run-up that effectively erased the Dow and Nasdaq's losses for the week... As it stands now, all of the major indices are poised to close with slight gains, ending a two-week losing streak... Briefing.com adopted a more cautious approach to investing in mid-January, advising a more conservative strategy that stresses dividends, cash flow, and dependable earnings...

Such industry groups that embody the aforementioned principles have performed particularly well against a backdrop that punishes high P/E multiple stocks...NYSE Adv/Dec 1888/1293, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1590/1373

1:00PM: Indices continue to run in place in marginally positive territory although much of the gains from the mid-day rally have disappeared... Buyers have simply exercised the same caution they have over the past couple of months with fears that the market may have topped off high on their list... One area that has gone against today's trend has been the health care distributor stocks...

The area's reliable earnings growth and value-oriented appeal (attractive in the current skittish environment) - augmented by a Goldman Sachs upgrade of McKesson (MCK 29.97 +1.71) and Cardinal Health (CAH 69.99 +3.04) to Outperform from In-line - have led more investors to the group...NYSE Adv/Dec 1875/1278, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1627/1332

12:30PM: Equity market slips off its highs of the session, but continues to trade comfortably above the flat line... The Nasdaq has lifted to a key resistance point at 1970/1972 which has proven to be insurmountable in earlier trade today...

[54anickel]

48. 2:06 quick check in between pooches

Dow 10,238.08 +19.26 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,969.32 +2.15 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,112.24 +3.05 (+0.27%)
30-yr Bond 4.767% +0.078

NYSE Volume 843,898,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,017,432,000

1:25PM: Stocks edge a bit higher but have yet to stage a major breakout... The market has taken a breather today after yesterday's run-up that effectively erased the Dow and Nasdaq's losses for the week... As it stands now, all of the major indices are poised to close with slight gains, ending a two-week losing streak... Briefing.com adopted a more cautious approach to investing in mid-January, advising a more conservative strategy that stresses dividends, cash flow, and dependable earnings...
Such industry groups that embody the aforementioned principles have performed particularly well against a backdrop that punishes high P/E multiple stocks...NYSE Adv/Dec 1888/1293, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1590/1373

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

50. the spinners need to work harder

these days - there will be even fewer of their co-workers to contrive the spin with

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/03/26/rtr1313588.html

NYC may lose more securities jobs, but upturn seen

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York City's securities industry, which has lost more than one-fifth of its work force since 2000, may not have seen the last of its job losses, the Securities Industry Association said on Friday.

<snip>

New York City in January had 158,300 securities jobs, down 42,000, or 22 percent, from December 2000, the SIA said, citing revised data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Statewide, employment in the industry fell 18 percent to 177,900.

The city still accounts for one in five U.S. securities industry jobs. Nationally, January industry employment totaled 770,700, off 8 percent from the March 2001 peak, the SIA said.

<snip>

"On the other hand, there is a move toward outsourcing or sending lower- level and operational functions overseas" to such places as India to cut costs, Soifer said. "Even within the metropolitan area you've got the continuing response to 9/11, the need to decentralize operations and reduce vulnerability to major disruptions."

...more...

Oh Goodie! A new spinning reason - the need to decentralize operations and reduce vulnerability!!!

Wheee!!!!!!

[CaptainClark23]

51. Incredible.

So the implied argument is that outsourcing and job loss is part of making our Nation (sorry, our Corpornation) more secure from terrorist attacks.

Our greatest economic 'assets' are threatened by the spectre of terrorism, so our best plan is to get them out of harm's way by shipping them...SOMEPLACE ELSE!

Incredible.

[UpInArms]

54. will the last person leaving

please turn out the lights?

I guess we all need to leave for our own safety? :crazy:

[54anickel]

56. SNARF! Won't be a problem, they'll have shut off the power anyway

for failure to pay our bills. :evilgrin:

Edit to add:
Pooch #2 is not cooperating. Have to wait for hubby to come home to hold the "lil bastard" down. He looks pretty stooopid right now, all shaved except for tail and legs. What a goober.

[htuttle]

52. Wall Street will be so pleased!

Their productivity will soar once all the employees are gone!

/sarcasm

[54anickel]

49. Those Greedy Corporations Snag Record GDP Share

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=baum&sid=aF8SJdYLVnpM

Wow, amazing how many hits come up on a google of greedy corporations.

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Twelve weeks into the first quarter, it's hard to summon much excitement about news from the fourth, especially when it happens to be the third stab at economic growth.

Yesterday's report on fourth-quarter gross domestic product was not without interest, however. That's because it came with the first look at economy-wide corporate profits, which rose 29 percent on a pretax basis from the same quarter a year earlier to a record $1.21 trillion.

These are not the profits companies report in their quarterly press releases or in their filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which have to comply with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

The profits in the Commerce Department's National Income and Product Accounts are based on results reported to the Internal Revenue Service. No one over-reports income for tax purposes.

more...

[UpInArms]

53. market numbers at 3:01 EST and blather

Dow 10,257.41 +38.59 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,972.84 +5.67 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,113.57 +4.38 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 3.838% +0.099

2:30PM: The market has barely budged since noon as conviction on the part of buyers, or sellers, is weak... Up volume is slightly outpacing down volume, but is not translating into a tremendous lead for the bulls... Earnings reports have been basically non-existent, and investors have preferred to sit this session out (literally, with volume levels light) in favor of next week... On Friday, the market will get the March employment report and the consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls is set at 100K...

Following the big disappointment associated with the meager 21K gain in February, Briefing.com believes it will take a number larger than 100K to shake the market's worries about job growth...NYSE Adv/Dec 1871/1359, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1611/1411

2:05PM: Very little change to the overall trading pattern as the indices continue to chop around just above the unchanged mark... Although terrorism concerns have fallen off the radar screen in today's session, they have not disappeared completely... Investors are still apparently troubled by the threat as gold, what is known as a safe-haven investment vehicle, has continued to soar... The price of gold has escalated off Monday's two-month high of $414.40/oz, and now fluctuates around nearly $423/oz... As a result, the gold stocks have posted one of the largest moves today...

The bond market is not seeing a similar "flight to safety" bid as more traders take profits from the market's recent strength... NYSE Adv/Dec 1862/1343, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1580/1425

Wonder how all these traders will feel with the reports coming from Bangalore?

[54anickel]

55. Less than 20 minutes to go and it's a race DOWN to the waterline

Dow 10,232.59 +13.77 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,968.80 +1.63 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,111.64 +2.45 (+0.22%)
30-yr Bond 4.770% +0.081


3:30PM: The bulls hang in there and bid stocks to their best levels of the session - albeit moderate gains in an absolute sense... Still, today's market represents a change of pace from the downward trend that has dominated trading... Most of today's - and yesterday's - recovery effort can be written off as a bounce off oversold conditions, and thus it is hard to accurately say if the market will continue to retrace its losses, or remain range-bound over the interim...
Briefing.com believes the Q1 (Mar) reporting season should provide a respite from selling as most earnings pronouncements - in the past weeks - have been to the upside... Thus, this reporting period could see a traditional 'earnings season rally'...NYSE Adv/Dec 1943/1313, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1717/1354

[54anickel]

57. A splash of red to end the day

Wonder what the blather will say?

Dow 10,212.97 -5.85 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,960.02 -7.15 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,108.03 -1.16 (-0.10%)
30-yr Bond 4.770% +0.081

Have to wait on the blather.....

edit to add blather, wasn't really worth the wait...

Close: It was a choppy session from start to close, but the stock market finally settled just below the unchanged mark in a close that was still good enough for an up week for the Dow and Nasdaq... The S&P 500, however, finished the week with the slightest of losses as the majority of sectors traded in lopsided fashion... Today's market was a bit of a disappointment (to the bulls) considering the decent gains it secured in the afternoon and its inability to hold them in late-day trading...

To be fair, though, a good reason for that was the remarkable move higher the indices turned in yesterday (the largest point gain for the Nasdaq since March 2003)... As a result, buyers weren't feeling nearly as giving and showed select interest in stocks... Energy, gold, and health care distributor (the latter on account of a Goldman Sachs upgrade of Cardinal Health (CAH 67.35 +3.40) and McKesson (MCK 29.49 +1.23) to Outperform from In-line) were the standouts of the day, with semiconductor, drug, and biotech declining significantly... The day's economic data were fairly encouraging, although they did not affect the course of trading noticeably...

February Personal Income and Spending checked in at 0.4% (consensus of 0.3%) and 0.2% (consensus of 0.5%), respectively, and the revision to March Consumer Sentiment was slightly larger - at 95.8 - than expected...

[UpInArms]

58. splishing blather

Close: It was a choppy session from start to close, but the stock market finally settled just below the unchanged mark in a close that was still good enough for an up week for the Dow and Nasdaq... The S&P 500, however, finished the week with the slightest of losses as the majority of sectors traded in lopsided fashion... Today's market was a bit of a disappointment (to the bulls) considering the decent gains it secured in the afternoon and its inability to hold them in late-day trading...

To be fair, though, a good reason for that was the remarkable move higher the indices turned in yesterday (the largest point gain for the Nasdaq since March 2003)... As a result, buyers weren't feeling nearly as giving and showed select interest in stocks... Energy, gold, and health care distributor (the latter on account of a Goldman Sachs upgrade of Cardinal Health (CAH 67.35 +3.40) and McKesson (MCK 29.49 +1.23) to Outperform from In-line) were the standouts of the day, with semiconductor, drug, and biotech declining significantly... The day's economic data were fairly encouraging, although they did not affect the course of trading noticeably...

February Personal Income and Spending checked in at 0.4% (consensus of 0.3%) and 0.2% (consensus of 0.5%), respectively, and the revision to March Consumer Sentiment was slightly larger - at 95.8 - than expected...

[54anickel]

59. HA! Simultaneous posts again!!! High Fives, great end to the week!

(Simultaneous to my edit anyway) But still "good enough"!!!

Hope everybody has a great weekend! :hi:

[Robbien]

60. And a word of warning from the IRS

In the wake of the corporate scandals, some taxpayers have resorted to writing off last year's stock losses as theft losses on their returns. But the IRS says it is disallowing such claims and says taxpayers can only claim capital losses for devalued stock when they sell. The agency warns it may penalize taxpayers who claim the theft losses.

But I bet those poorly paid staffers at the IRS secretly agree with how the losses are labeled.

[54anickel]

61. Haha!!! That is great. Wish I'd of thought of that one. They SHOULD

be taken as theft losses!