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Science DailyScienceDaily (July 9, 2010) — Exceptionally long heat waves and other hot events could become commonplace in the United States in the next 30 years, according to a new study by Stanford University climate scientists.
"In the next 30 years, we could see an increase in heat waves like the one now occurring in the eastern United States or the kind that swept across Europe in 2003 that caused tens of thousands of fatalities," said Diffenbaugh, a center fellow at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment. "
In that scenario (examined by the study) , the mean global temperature in 30 years would be about 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) hotter than in the preindustrial era of the 1850s. Many climate scientists and policymakers have targeted a 2-degree C temperature increase as the maximum threshold beyond which the planet is likely to experience serious environmental damage. For example, in the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Accord, the United States and more than 100 other countries agreed to consider action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions "so as to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius."
"Our results suggest that limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial conditions may not be sufficient to avoid serious increases in severely hot conditions," Diffenbaugh said.
Read more:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100708122617.htm
A recent NASA report, which concluded that the previous decade, January 2000 to December 2009, was the warmest on record. The latest computer model suggests that even modest increases in global temperature may have drastic climate effects.
This computer projection predicts harsh effects in the American West: From 2030 to 2039, most areas of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico could endure at least seven seasons equally as intense as the hottest season ever recorded between 1951 and 1999. This doesn't even take into account of what could happen in Mexico and the possible mass emegration from the country as crops fail. And there could be really large effects even before 2039, according to the study.
This has been a hot, wretched week in the Northeastern US. But as heat waves go, this one was pretty mild — especially compared to these seven examples.
It's easy to underestimate the danger of a severe heat wave, and more flamboyant weather events, like hurricanes, tend to draw more attention. But these slow-motion natural disasters can kill hundreds, or even thousands, of people at a time. And thanks to climate change, experts predict that they're only going to get worse. According to a recent Stanford study, prolonged heat waves could be common in the US by 2039.
So here are seven modern events that give us a hint of what to look forward to:
London, The Great Stink, 1858
NYC & Philly, 1948
Australia 2009
New York City, 1977
North America, 1936
Chicago, 1995
The CDC had warned American cities for years they needed emergency plans for extreme heat, but few listened. In July 1995, Chicago got walloped with triple-digit temperatures, exacerbated by high humidity. Desperate for a way to cool off, people opened so many fire hydrants that many buildings lost water pressure entirely. Social forces combined with an ineffective response to make this an unusually deadly heat wave. Many victims were elderly and lived alone, often in neglected neighborhoods with high crime. That left them afraid to leave their homes, but with no one to check on them. Then the city government didn't respond fast enough, refusing to call in extra staff or ambulances and waiting until bodies piled up to declare an emergency. Because no one could agree on what "heat-related deaths" mean, estimated casualties range from 400-700 people.
Europe, 2003
The 7 Most Miserable Heat Waves in Modern History
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