Bush, Kerry in Statistical Tie in Ohio Poll

[phillybri]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040326/pl_nm/campaign_ohio_poll_dc&cid=615&ncid=2043

CINCINNATI, Ohio (Reuters) - The presidential contest in the key battleground state of Ohio is a toss-up, with likely Democratic nominee John Kerry holding a slim edge over President Bush in a poll released on Friday.

Massachusetts Sen. Kerry was supported by 46 percent of 632 registered voters surveyed for the Ohio Poll and Bush got the support of 44 percent, a gap that was within the survey's margin of error.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites) got the backing of 5 percent, while 4 percent were undecided in the telephone poll conducted between March 10 and March 22 by the Institute of Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati.

[LittleApple81]

1. is Ohio a red or a blue state? n/t

[yardwork]

2. It's a purple state.

Ohio went for Bush in 2000, but has often gone Democratic in the past. It sort of represents the swing voters.

[lancdem]

22. Actually, it hasn't gone Democratic that often

except for Clinton in 1992 and 1996. But it is considered a swing state. BTW, this poll is good because 1) Nader will get much less than 5 percent of the vote in November (if he's even on the ballot) and 2) this poll was almost completely done before the Clarke bombshell.

[phillybri]

3. Barely red...Bush won by 4 % in 2000....

HUGE swing state. They've picked the winners since 1964...

[sonias]

4. Wait a minute

If they voted for bu$h in 2000, that's not picking the winner. I'd have to say that they also have a * by that claim in 2000. Al Gore won the presidential election in 2000, and the SCOTUS selected bu$h on a partisan 5-4 vote.

I would say they broke their record in 2000.

However I'm happy to see the contest close in this important state.

Sonia

[ZR2]

7. Except 2000

when they picked the appointee.

[Voltaire99]

5. Honey, I shrunk the election

Well, these results are hardly a surprise.

Hemorrhaging jobs, Ohio is a state devastated by Bush policies. You'd think it would be clamoring for change.

But Kerry is over-identified with support for Bush and consequently tagged, unfairly or not, with vacillation. Unlike political junkies, voters aren't going to work hard on the task of telling the challenger from the incumbent. That's the chief danger of running Pepsi against Coke.

Maybe if Kerry were to get a team better than the one advising him to back the Iraq war and cut corporate taxes, he might put some distance between his and Bush's numbers.

[mikey_1962]

9. you are right.... the average voter doesn't look deep

Kerry and his advisers better get it in gear.

[lancdem]

23. Kerry identified with Bush?

Only a tiny minority thinks that. The differences are pretty obvious to most voters.

[bearfan454]

6. They have to make it look close or else

Diebold stealing it for him won't be believable. Really.

They have to make it work this way:

http://www.blackboxvoting.com

and

http://www.blackboxvoting.org

[mikey_1962]

8. Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will determine the winner

in November.... its going to be God-awful around here from now until the first Tuesday following the first Monday in November.

[Gasolinedream]

10. Ohio...

Is a funky state. In my area near Cleveland (Cuyahoga County) it is overwhlemingly Democrat. Columbus area is split, and Cincinnati area in the South is very Republican. As you get away from cities in Ohio, you are looking at more Republicans. Not the big business guys, but a lot of sportsmen and some Religious folk especially in Southern Ohio. If Kerry goes real anti-guns he will have a very difficult time getting enough of the Southern voters to go with him, but Bush and his policies are helping businesses and hurting jobs. Governor Bob Taft (Republican) is actually helping us out. I find most people think he's an idiot and he screwed the state over and didn't share some info while he was running for this latest term. Hopefully, he'll go around giving Bush his support. It might actually backfire on them.

[xultar]

11. Does that include the Diebold curve. n/t

[SOS]

15. Ohio winner projected by Fox News!

Bush 96%
Nader 3%
Kerry 1%

Results certified by Diebold, Inc.

[Sandpiper]

12. If Bush loses Ohio

He loses the election, even if he carries every other state that he did in 2000.

Rove must be soiling his pants.

[sasquatch]

13. Cincinnati?!? They took that poll in the capitol of Midwestern Fascism

:dunce: I always consider it my city but she has her problems:(

[west hollywood dem]

14. Nader is having a damaging effect on this race.

I hope he can only be on the ballot a a write-in vote.

[Zero Gravitas]

18. Grrrr...

Whats up with Nader getting 5%? I can only hope that most of that 5% doesn't actually want 4 more years of Bush and so will actually do something constructive about it instead of voting for Nader.

[lancdem]

24. This is a poll of registered voters

and that overinflates Nader's support, which is very soft. Among likely voters he polls considerably less.

[wryter2000]

19. Welcome to DU

Welcome to DU West Hollywood :hi:

[Barkley]

26. Yep, there's no place like home

I grew up in Cincinnati but I now live in L.A.
I teach at NKU every summer and stay with at my relatives in Cincinnati.

Over the years Cincinnati has changed (of course so have I) but
I just don't remember the city being so conservative back in the 70s.

I'm disappointed in how its changed:
Ronald Reagan Freeway, Marge Schott, Article XII, police brutality, riots... and now (or soon) the Jerry Springer Show.

Didn't Bush deliver a big pro-war speech in Cincinnati in Oct. 2002 touting Iraq's nuclear weapons program?

And Cincinnati's local Fox TV News makes the L.A. counterpart look like Pacifica.

Cincinnati is a city of only 325,000 people (L.A. has suburbs bigger than that) and essentially two racial groups.

How hard is it for you all to 'get along'?

At the end of each summer, I am always ready to leave.

[ugarte]

16. No way Nader gets 5%

When push comes to shove.

[TahitiNut]

20. Most of Nader's vote in Ohio will come from the near right, imho.

There're plenty of traditional farm/small business Republicans in Ohio who're appalled at BushJr but who'd vote anything but Democratic. They'd be far more inclined to vote Nader "to send a message" than vote BushJr. Most of Nader's other votes would come from Bowling Green and Broad and High (i.e. on the banks of the Olantangy).

[yellowcanine]

17. If * loses Ohio it probably means he is also losing

West Virginia and maybe even Indiana. It also means he probably won't have much of a shot at some Gore states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconson, some states which the * bots are going to be gunning for this time. Hopefully Kerry grabs Missouri and New Hampshire also and then Florida will just be frosting on the cake.

[mac1000a]

21. Don't forget Florida

Every poll I've read about Florida shows Kerry ahead, even with Nader included. Although who knows what kind of shenanigans Jeb's got up his sleeve there.

[tedoll78]

25. What we need to do..

First, we get out maps of Ohio's past three Presidential election results. With these maps, we determine the precincts of the state that have most consistently gone Blue (>~55% in each election), and the ones that have most consistently gone Red.

Next.. we amass a force of volunteers and assign each volunteer to an area of a Blue precinct. In July, we have each volunteer go from door-to-door in their precinct area. Each worker will carry with him/her voter registration forms, and no information that we hand-out will have any partisan tilt at all.

Next.. in the really Red areas (>60%), we advertise on billboards. BUT.. instead of advertising for Kerry, we advertise against Bush FROM THE RIGHT. We complain about how big the deficit has gotten, how Roe still stands despite 7/9 justices being GOP-appointed, how government spending (non-security/military) has risen faster than the Clinton years, etc. We basically make Bush out to be a big disappointment to the conservative cause. Our goal here? To get 1 or 2% of the GOP base to sit at home on election day, demoralized.

Next.. in October, our volunteers canvass the Blue territory again, but this time with more materials:
1) Voter registration forms, if allowed (I haven't checked the Ohio deadline)
2) Refrigerator magnets with 1-800 numbers on them. When the voter calls this number, polling place information will be available. Also, voters can use this number to report voting irregularities immediately.
3) Absentee ballots. This will get usual non-voters voting in greater numbers. It will also get a paper trail on many votes, AND, if more people vote in this manner, it alleviates long lines at the polls on Election Day - which will result in fewer folks turning-away from their polling places.

Repeat this process in each key swing state. There are enough pissed-off Democrats to pull this off if we really want to do it. If turnout in the Blue areas is stronger than turnout in the Red areas, our chances JUMP.

[yardwork]

28. Lot of good ideas there.

I grew up in Ohio and I still have relatives there and in Michigan. Most of them are independent or Republican, and they are hopping mad at * right now (even before Clarke).

I think that the election is Kerry's to win or lose. Midwesterners are pragmatic people, and they don't like a lot of what they call "nonsense." No big words or big ideas. Keep it simple.

Kerry needs to stay away from gun control, abortion, and gay rights. Yes, I know that this will make a lot of us really mad - hey, I have strong feelings about those issues too - strong feelings from the left. But there's no point in losing the election over some issues that the president really doesn't have a lot of control over anyway.

Kerry needs to hammer home the facts about the economy, terrorism, and the war. Those are the areas where * is terribly weak. All Kerry has to do is present a reasonable alternative to the * disasters, and the election is his.

I firmly believe this.

[MisterP]

29. Leip's site:

www.uselectionatlas.org

[dolstein]

27. If it had been Bush 46, Kerry 44, the headline would have read . .

Bush Leads Kerry in Ohio Poll.