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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:05 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday July 20
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday July 20, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 19, 2010

Dow... 10,154.43 +56.53 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq... 2,198.23 UNCH (UNCH)
S&P 500... 1,071.25 +6.37 (+0.59%)
Gold future... 1,178 -4.00 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.94 -0.02 (-0.78%)
30-Year Bond 3.96 -0.02 (-0.55%)



Market Conditions During Trading Hours


Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold






Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:

The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:

LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 =
11









This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:08 AM
Response to Original message
1. Today's Reports
08:30 Building Permits Jun
Briefing.com 560K
Consensus 572K
Prior 574K

08:30 Housing Starts Jun
Briefing.com 570K
Consensus 575K
Prior 593K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:44 AM
Response to Reply #1
22. Reports are in.
08:30 Building Permits Jun
Actual 586K
Prior 574K

08:30 Housing Starts Jun
Actual 549K
Prior 578K
Revised from 593K
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:50 AM
Response to Reply #22
33. U.S. housing starts drop 5% to 8-month low
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-housing-starts-fall-5-to-8-month-low-2010-07-20

Ground-breaking on new housing units fell sharply after a federal tax credit for buyers expired, putting the housing sector back in the dumps where it was a year ago, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday.

After a 15% drop in May, housing starts fell another 5% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000, the lowest level in eight months, the Commerce Department estimated.

...

The number of homes under construction also fell, dropping to a record-low 450,000 at the end of June, after builders rushed to complete homes in time for the June 30 deadline for the tax credit. Completions surged a record 26% last month to an annualized rate of 886,000. Read the full release on the Census Bureau's Web site.

Building permits, which are considered a forward indicator of housing construction, rose 2.1% on the month, due to a 20% gain in permits for multi-family units.


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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:11 AM
Response to Original message
2. Oil hovers below $77 amid mixed signs on economy
Oil prices hovered below $77 a barrel Tuesday as traders awaited corporate earnings reports for clues about the strength of the global economy and the outlook for energy demand.

Oil has traded between $64 and $87 so far this year and has hovered near $76 for the last two weeks amid light summer trading volume. Investors are eyeing a slow U.S. economic recovery and mixed corporate results so far during second-quarter earnings season.

Traders are also keeping a close watch on China, which will likely account for more than half of global crude demand growth this year.

In other Nymex trading in August contracts, heating oil rose 0.26 cent to $2.0196 a gallon, gasoline gained 0.54 cent to $2.0644 a gallon and natural gas fell 1.9 cents to $4.491 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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hamerfan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:54 PM
Response to Reply #2
60. I know there's no simple answer...
But gasoline here has gone up 8 cents/gallon in the last three days!
Why?
Why not! Let's gouge the suckers!
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #60
61. That price is unhinged from the price of oil.
There is a basis point in the final cost of oil such as that final price set at the Cushing hub for West Texas Intermediate crude. But once the refined product is removed from the crude substance - the refined product is subject to as much speculative jostling as the crude oil.

Gouging? Yes. That is apparent in the volatility of the so-called "non-core" commodities.
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hamerfan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #61
67. Thanks for the info, Ozy!
As for, "Gouging? Yes. That is apparent in the volatility of the so-called "non-core" commodities."
Does this include the recent cornering of the cocoa bean supply?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:13 AM
Response to Original message
3. Democrats to give jobless benefits another vote
WASHINGTON – Millions of people stuck on the jobless rolls would receive an extension of unemployment benefits averaging $309 a week under a Senate bill that appears set to break free of a Republican filibuster.

Democrats have stripped the unemployment insurance measure down to the bare essentials for Tuesday's vote, which is a do-over of a tally taken late last month.

The measure is expected to pass later Tuesday. The House would take it up Wednesday and then send it to President Barack Obama for his signature.

If all goes as expected, about 2.5 million people will receive jobless benefits retroactively. Instead of being dropped from a federal program that extends benefits for those whose six months of state-paid benefits have run out, millions of others will continue to receive payments.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100720/ap_on_bi_ge/us_unemployment_benefits
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:15 AM
Response to Original message
4. Rates on Treasury bills mixed at weekly auction
The Treasury Department auctioned $30 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 0.155 percent, up from 0.150 percent last week. Another $30 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 0.195 percent, down from 0.200 percent last week.

The discount rates reflect that the bills sell for less than face value. For a $10,000 bill, the three-month price was $9,996.08, while a six-month bill sold for $9,990.14. That would equal an annualized rate of 0.157 percent for the three-month bills and 0.198 percent for the six-month bills.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100719/ap_on_bi_ge/us_treasury_bills
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:17 AM
Response to Original message
5. Bernanke must appear concerned, not desperate
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – How much would the U.S. economy have to weaken for the Federal Reserve to try to push borrowing costs even lower?

That question will loom over Capitol Hill this week as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers his semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

The answer may rest, as it so often does, on jobs. If a recent softening in a range of economic data is matched by greater unemployment, the U.S. central bank may be forced to take action, even if its room for maneuver is now limited.

Bernanke faces the difficult task of convincing Congress the Fed is not powerless to deal with slower growth, without appearing so worried about the outlook as to suggest further easing may be imminent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100719/bs_nm/us_usa_fed
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:28 AM
Response to Original message
6. Why the economy isn't recovering by gjohnsit
There are two primary reasons why the economy isn't recovering, one reason is cyclical, the other is secular.

gjohnsit's diary :: ::
The Cyclical Problem

The curious inability of politicians to use the term "credit cycle" when discussing fixes to our economic problems is a disturbing condition.

Forget the political spin. Forget the happy-talk, bullsh*t from talking heads on financial news shows. Forget all the distractions and focus on the most important point about our economy: how we got here.

So what is the credit cycle? Consider for yourself the Minsky Moment.

When a market fails or falls into crisis after an extended period of market speculation or unsustainable growth. A Minsky moment is based on the idea that periods of speculation, if they last long enough, will eventually lead to crises; the longer speculation occurs the worse the crisis will be. This crisis is named after Hyman Minsky, an economist and professor famous for arguing the inherent instability of markets, especially bull markets.

What Hyman Minsky described is exactly what happened to the American economy. In fact, Minsky described it almost too well, as if he was an economic Cassandra writing the future that everyone refuses to believe.

This is where we are now. Note how housing prices have fallen, but the debt behind those houses remains despite an avalanche of bankruptcies and foreclosures. The economy is overloaded with bad debts that will never be paid. The government stepped in to stop the collapse of these asset values in order to save the banking system that made the stupid loans. This transferred some of the bad private debt to public pockets. The bad debt didn't go away, it merely changed locations. The economy is still burdened with it.

The Secular Problem

Most Americans aren't aware that America once had a national economic plan, and it existed from the days of President Lincoln to President Nixon in one form or another. During that 112 year period America grew from an agrarian, frontier nation, to the most mighty economic power the world had ever seen.

The American School of Economics also involved government support for the development of science and a public school system. Through this economic philosophy America set the standard in manufacturing, higher education, scientific research and development, finance, and general standard of living.

So what happened? Under President Nixon the decision was made to remove protective trade barrier and go to a Free Trade model in 1973.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/7/19/123915/419



I have excerpted some of the more pointed aspects of this diary. I encourage you to go read it for the nuance. It really is an eloquent and thought-provoking piece.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:02 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. Chart of Day: $4 Trillion Hangover
Edited on Tue Jul-20-10 07:04 AM by ozymandius
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/chart-of-day-4-trillion-hangover/

Last week, we looked at London based hedge fund RAB Capital Chief Strategist Dhaval Joshi’s The $4 Trillion Dollar Question.

It turns out that is now a Bloomberg Chart of Day!



Ritholtz has a chart that shows the relationship between mortgage debt and home values in terms of real estate assets. A second chart that shows the debt-to-value ratio.

Many banks made some stupid loans. Many of these debts, as the gjohnsit's thesis above states, will not be repaid.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:57 AM
Response to Reply #13
23. As one commentor on Ritholtz put it.....
"A lot of money tied up in a dead asset".

Or as I would say, "A lot of money OWED on a dead asset". Imagine the prospect of working the next 25 years to pay off an investment that is worth less and less every month.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. 25 years of throwing money in the dumpster
That makes my head hurt.

I cannot imagine the frustration and pain of making a monthly payment on an "asset" that depreciates year-over-year in real value (despite efforts to keep the value artificially inflated). Meanwhile, each payment reflects the original sum borrowed, plus taxes and interest. I can see why short sales are so popular.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #6
29. The Facade Is Crumbling: The Fraud and Looting Continue
This is an excerpt from Badabing's diary at DailyKos. It references the diary (excerpt posted above) by gjohnsit with extrapolation of themes and some differences in analysis:

Our nation has a deep crisis in 'public trust' in our government, because they have proven to be untrustworthy, and nothing has been done to regain that trust, what so ever. If you allow a Bank Robber to continue robbing, guess what: THEY WILL !!!! And this is exactly what is still going on in our country.

The 'real' solution should not just be to write off the debts, but make those who caused this national catastrophe be held accountable, to open the 'books' for all to see, and for that $47 trillion in toxic debt, be acknowledged once and for all.

As far as our jobs coming back consider this brutal truth:

To date not one President or our bought off Congress, has ever initiated a tax on Corporations for sending our jobs overseas, so what few jobs are created, are sent to nations where 'slave wages' are acceptable, and there's no such thing as a 'dirty filthy Union.' That is why we have no jobs, and why they jobs are not coming back............ever.

I got a note from a person over at Congressman Grayson's office today who regularly sends me information, I thought I might share with you all:
Dodd Questions Warren's Viability For CFPA Post

Updated at 1:23 p.m. on July 19.

A key Democratic senator this morning dealt a blow to the hopes of many liberals that Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren would be chosen as the first head of the newly created Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, said he doubted that Warren, a favorite of liberals, could be confirmed by the Senate. The CFPA is a key piece of the financial reform bill passed last week and is to be signed Wednesday by President Obama....
First Treasurer Geithner, now Chris Dodd...........who the hell do you think these people are really working for anyway?

Just so that we know know know why the "Cat Food Commission' is going to try to finally 'Teach the most vulnerable ..............how 'CAT FOOD' can actually taste great in their new 'card board homes living on the streets or in tent cities, let's at least be honest about what is all about:

To pay off, what Wall Street/the Banks stole from all our nation, to repay the Toxic Debts, that are still being held off the 'Maiden Lane Toxic Accounts' that are being held in Secret by the Freedom of Information Act, that Bloomberg has a huge case against, and that we still, do not have the right to have the 'records' that the most Dangerous and Dictatorship of our entire nation has ever held, the Federal Reserve and our Treasurer, Timothy Geithner, continues (Sealing the Records of the AIG deal, under the SEC until 2018...both for the first time in our entire history as a nation)

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/7/19/885460/-The-Facade-Is-Crumbling:-The-Fraud-and-Looting-Continue
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ozone_man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #6
35. Next comes the debt purge cycle.
We should have started the debt purge cycle back in 2000, when the Nasdaq crashed, but the wars and low interest rates fueled refinancing created more debt, and here we are. It's going to be a much harder ride down now.

----------------------

Into the Abyss: The Coming Cycle of Debt Deflation

Ron Hera | Jun. 2, 2010, 10:03 AM

One of the most famous quotations of Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises is that “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency involved.”

In fact, the US economy is in a downward spiral of debt deflation despite the bold actions of the federal government and of the US Federal Reserve taken in response to the financial crisis that began in 2008 and the associated recession. Although the vicious circle of debt deflation is not widely recognized, precisely what von Mises described is happening before our eyes.

(more)

http://www.businessinsider.com/into-the-abyss-the-cycle-of-debt-deflation-2010-6
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #6
53. "a national economic plan," n/t.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 09:22 PM
Response to Reply #53
66. A National Economic Plan Would Protect All Citizens and the Infrastructure
What we have is a plan to protect the financial parasites, corporate and individual.
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rfranklin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:29 AM
Response to Original message
7. Marketwatch: Sentiment Sours Pre-Open
Futures drop amid heavy earning schedule, IBM gloom
Goldman Sachs Group, Johnson & Johnson are due to report earnings
By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch
MADRID (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures extended losses ahead of the Wall Street open on Tuesday, with weaker-than-expected results from IBM souring sentiment, as investors awaited earnings reports from a string of companies including Goldman Sachs.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 80 points to 9,980, while those for the Nasdaq 100 fell 16.75 points to 1,788.50.

Futures for the S&P 500 slipped 10 points to 1,053.80.

Market observers could find no obvious reason why futures were accelerating losses, but cited earnings from IBM (NYSE:IBM) and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) overnight that disappointed analyst expectations.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-point-south-ibm-gloom-weighs-2010-07-20?dist=beforebell
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:39 AM
Response to Original message
8. SEC chief appearing after Goldman deal
WASHINGTON – The head of the Securities and Exchange Commission is appearing before Congress days after the passage of sweeping financial regulation that gives the agency new powers and a landmark settlement of civil fraud charges with Goldman Sachs & Co.

SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro is telling House lawmakers at a hearing Tuesday that the agency has been revamping itself, strengthening enforcement efforts and taking measures to protect investors in the wake of the financial crisis and past agency failures.

Schapiro says in her written testimony that the coming months for the SEC will be dominated by rule-writing for the new legislation.

The SEC chief also is discussing the agency's response to the May 6 "flash crash," a panicked disruption that saw the Dow Jones industrials lose nearly 1,000 points in less than a half-hour. Under a new system of "circuit breakers" for individual stocks put in last month by the SEC, U.S. stock exchanges must briefly halt trading of major stocks that mark big swings. Trading of any Standard & Poor's 500 index stock that rises or falls 10 percent or more in a five-minute span must be halted for an additional five minutes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100720/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sec_congress
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:47 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Goldman executive denies fraud
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs executive Fabrice Tourre denied fraud and other accusations by U.S. regulators for his role in marketing a subprime mortgage product and asked a court on Monday to dismiss the case.

In a filing on Monday with the U.S. District Court in Manhattan, Tourre's lawyers said he "cannot be held liable for any misrepresentations or omissions that he did not make."

It also said "the purported claims against Mr. Tourre are based solely on alleged actions and omissions concerning information known to many different Goldman Sachs employees working in various aspects of its business, including Legal, Compliance, sales and trading."

His court filing denied the allegations "including specifically that those allegations completely and accurately characterize the offering materials for ABACUS 2007-AC1 or the credit default swaps ("CDS") between Paulson & Co, Inc. ("Paulson") and Goldman, Sachs & Co ("Goldman Sachs"), and respectfully refers the Court to those documents for a complete and accurate statement of their contents."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100720/bs_nm/us_goldmansachs_tourre



This brings me back to my post yesterday from Barry Ritholtz: "Its the Law, Bitches!" in which Ritholtz shares this significant excerpt from the law books:

Securities Exchange Act of 1934:

Since this is a legal case, what say we actually look at the law?
“It shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly to make any untrue statement of a material fact or to omit to state a material fact . . . engage in any act, practice, or course of business which operates or would operate as a fraud or deceit upon any person, in connection with the purchase or sale of any security.”

-Rule 10b-5, Securities Exchange Act of 1934 *
Based upon the evidentiary information the SEC had — emails, phone calls, sworn statements, etc. — the “Fabulous Fab” told Abacus buyers that John Paulson was long the Abacus CDO when he was in fact short it; Further, Fab omitted to mention that a short seller helped to construct the synthetic CDO that he was betting against.

That factual description is a clear violation of Rule 10b-5.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:50 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. "omissions that he did not make."
Hmmmm
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:11 AM
Response to Reply #11
26. I laughed at that too.
How do you not make an omission?.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #26
37. I Do It All the Time
It's called amnesia.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #37
39. At my age it's CRS...n/t
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #11
44. Dr. Freud, your slip is showing.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:19 AM
Response to Reply #8
16. Goldman earnings just released
At CNN/Money:

Goldman Sachs earns $613 million in the latest quarter, down 82% from a year ago due to SEC settlement and other charges.

details later
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:48 AM
Response to Original message
10. A kick and a donut
:Kick: :donut:
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:56 AM
Response to Original message
12. Debt: 07/16/2010 13,239,903,754,450.73 (DOWN 324,767,044.15) (Fri)
(Up a little. Good day.)
Ypsi.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,687,636,130,749.29 + 4,552,267,623,701.44
UP 234,726,558.99 + DOWN 559,493,603.14

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.07 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,686,393 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,752.62.
A family of three owes $128,257.85. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,586,502,500.95.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,563,435,167.37.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 198 reports in 289 days of FY2010 averaging 6.72B$ per report, 4.60B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 919 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/16/2010 13,239,903,754,450.73 BHO (UP 2,613,026,705,537.65 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,330,074,750,939.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,679,852,194,092.51 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon
07/13/2010 +000,353,392,256.51 ------------********
07/14/2010 +000,197,224,468.53 ------------********
07/15/2010 +047,740,634,202.02 ------------**********
07/16/2010 +000,234,726,558.99 ------------********

131,342,644,118.74 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4470413&mesg_id=4470485
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #12
68. Debt: 07/19/2010 13,242,893,842,328.75 (UP 2,990,087,878.02) (Mon)
(Down a little. Good day.)
Ypsi done.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,687,633,750,508.44 + 4,555,260,091,820.31
DOWN 2,380,240.85 + UP 2,992,468,118.87

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,228.87 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,706,331 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,759.52.
A family of three owes $128,278.56. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 9,735,148,867.47.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,814,604,207.23.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,594,778,265.06.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 199 reports in 292 days of FY2010 averaging 6.70B$ per report, 4.57B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 916 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 19.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/19/2010 13,242,893,842,328.75 BHO (UP 2,616,016,793,415.67 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,333,064,838,817.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,666,331,048,521.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon
07/13/2010 +000,353,392,256.51 ------------********
07/14/2010 +000,197,224,468.53 ------------********
07/15/2010 +047,740,634,202.02 ------------**********
07/16/2010 +000,234,726,558.99 ------------********
07/19/2010 -000,002,380,240.85 ----- Mon

131,082,122,817.85 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4471609&mesg_id=4471654
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:06 AM
Response to Original message
14. U.S. Futures, Europe Stocks Drop Before Goldman; Copper Rises
July 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock index futures dropped, European shares fell and the dollar weakened before earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and an American government report that may show housing starts fell. Copper rose on speculation that China may curb measures to cool the economy.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.8 percent at 7:20 a.m. in New York, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.7 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2.2 percent, and copper advanced for a second day.


Earnings Reports

Of the 28 companies in the S&P 500 that reported since July 12, all but six topped earnings-per-share forecasts, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. State Street Corp. posted second- quarter operating profit of 93 cents a share, compared with the average analyst estimate of 87 cents in a Bloomberg survey. Bank of New York Mellon Corp. posted net income of 54 cents a share, compared with the 55 cent estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Johnson & Johnson, and Apple Inc. also report results today.

The Stoxx Europe 600 fell for a fifth day, losing 0.5 percent. Cable & Wireless Worldwide Plc slumped 16 percent after saying profit will be at the lower end of estimates following U.K. government spending cuts. Nokia Oyj jumped 4.1 percent after the Wall Street Journal reported the company is looking to replace Chief Executive Officer Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo. Husqvarna AB surged 8 percent after the world’s largest garden power- equipment company reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGa5tOK6Zhkg&pos=1
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:12 AM
Response to Original message
15. Commodity Manipulation May Be Easier to Prove After Overhaul
Edited on Tue Jul-20-10 07:14 AM by ozymandius
July 19 (Bloomberg) -- Traders will face new rules aimed at making it easier for regulators to prove manipulation in markets for commodities such as oil, wheat and natural gas under the financial overhaul awaiting President Barack Obama’s signature.

The regulations, written in part by Senator Maria Cantwell, a Democrat from Washington state, attempt to relieve the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the burden of proving a trader intended to manipulate prices. Instead, the CFTC will have to show the trading was “reckless.”

The legislation will allow the CFTC to better police manipulation, while also expanding its jurisdiction to the over- the-counter derivatives market, said Michael Greenberger, a former director of trading and markets and now a professor at the University of Maryland law school in Baltimore.

Proving manipulation in court is tough because the statute provides little definition, including how to measure an “artificial” price and establish intent, said Craig Pirrong, director of the Global Energy Markets Institute at the University of Houston, who has written essays on the subject and served as an expert witness.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aA224KAZmQrM



This article briefly describes the four-prong test that is applied to prove artificiality of market prices - hence evidence of manipulation.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:22 AM
Response to Original message
17. No good ending in sight
"One out of three working Americans does not have retirement savings beyond Social Security, and about 35% of those over 65 rely almost totally on Social Security alone," Dallas Salisbury, president of the Alliance for Investor Education and the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) , explained to AlterNet. "Of the remaining two-thirds of working Americans that have some retirement savings, 27 percent report less than $1,000, 16 percent between $1,000 and $9,999, 11 percent between $10,000 and $24,999, 12 percent between $25,000-$49,999, and 36 percent $50,000 or more." Perhaps the most shocking number is that half of Americans have $2,000 or less saved for retirement.

http://www.alternet.org/economy/147570/the_retirement_nightmare%3A_half_of_americans_have_less_than_%242%2C000_banked_for_their_golden_years
...................
Thank Greenscum and Bumhanky for pumping stock and housing bubbles at the sake of savings accounts for much of this.

But people also had/have some control of their destinies. "Needing" a $35K SUV when a $8K Cavalier would have done the job, didn't help personal finances.

The rush for "Star Trek" communication devices, and their calling plans, is sucking the future from many individuals as fast as their room sized flat screens.

We need a :dumb: smiley thingy to be able to insert.

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:24 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Put that :dumb: emoticon on a wish list for Elad.
Edited on Tue Jul-20-10 07:26 AM by ozymandius
Goodness knows that we need one.

Edited to add that I would like to post emoticons in the subject line. I would also like to 'recommend' individual posts the same as threads. DailyKos has this feature.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:42 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. I would like to click on a person's ID to see other postings
by the same author



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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #21
43. There's a work around for that one. Search the person's name in the search bar up top.
Very occasionally, if I suspect someone is a or a


I look them up to see if they are causing trouble elsewhere......

Google search : "democraticunderground" "person X" will do the same thing.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #43
51. right, I've done that

and also there is the search forum
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=search_simple&select_forum=203

But if I am in a thread, it would be a nifty feature to click on the person's ID to see the associated postings for that the person elsewhere on DU, for that day, or week

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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #51
54. Agreed. +1 n/t
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #51
59. That would be a great way to track down trolls.
Edited on Tue Jul-20-10 06:16 PM by ozymandius
Crap stains will always lead to the cat dragging her butt on the ground.

Conversely, it would be helpful to admire quality posts from good people.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:08 AM
Response to Reply #19
25. Elad?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #25
28. DU Admin
He oversees the script coding of this site including the roster of available emoticons and other technical features.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #28
31. .....
:thumbsup:
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #17
30. This is also posted over in GD
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x549036
...............
IMHO Some of the replies are pretty lame. I have a very tough hide. 10% of which has literally been flamed 2nd degree) So let the flaming begin...Copy pastes are in standard text, my comments are in bold/ital

They don't even pay enough interest to bother anyway. They want your money
Like there is a problem paying for something with cash?

We're paying our kids' student loans and there's nothing left to save for retirement.
That's why you start saving when the kid is born. In the past, Care Bears and Cabbage Patch kids were a poor substitute for a savings account. Today the same can be said about anything that needs a battery or charging.

shouldn't your kids be responsible for it? I'm sure there's a good reason you're doing it, but i am concerned for your future ....
You're good parents

We seem to be the only "advanced" species on the planet that places ourselves above the interests of our offspring. Sending your kid off into adulthood includes educating them.
PS...If you dealt with the early stages of their life properly, "liberal arts" would not be chosen as a major.

To those at the bottom end of the wage ladder...my comments are not aimed in your direction





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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #17
57. Well, Homer Simpson got taken off the "Top 10" because
somebody complained about copyright infringement. Homer would be the obvious choice for a dumb emoticon. O=O for dumbbell will have to do, I guess.

Until then we can express bewilderment :eyes: or :crazy: or comment on human mental frailty via :dunce: or our utter frustration with it via :banghead:

Still, it would be lovely to have Homer around.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:22 AM
Response to Original message
18. BP's fine could hit the billions
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Just how much will BP pay in fines to the U.S. government? In a worst case scenario, they could top $18 billion.

BP (BP) has already announced a $20 billion fund to compensate disaster victims. But it will also owe a huge amount in fines for violating the Clean Water Act: Up to $4,300 per barrel of oil released if it's found the company was negligent in causing the disaster, according to a Justice Department spokesman.

No one has a precise number for how much oil has spewed into the Gulf. The Coast Guard originally said it was just 1,000 barrels a day. That figure has since been revised up to between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels a day.

Taking the high end of that estimate - over 4.3 million barrels of oil released since the spill began - the fines could total over $18 billion, and that's accounting for the 800,000 or so barrels BP had said it has captured.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/20/news/companies/bp_fines/index.htm



The top-end liability charge is $4,300 per barrel of oil released.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:29 AM
Response to Original message
20. Bank of America's dark cloud: Wall Street reform
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Bank of America's fears about Wall Street reform are giving the whole banking industry a case of the jitters.

Up until recently, bankers have remained mum on particular reform measures, saying that regulators will first need to write specific rules.

But Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) broke ranks on Friday, detailing the impact of several provisions, including the so-called Durbin amendment, named after sponsor Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., which will limit the fees banks collect from debit card swipes.

Bank of America executives said the new rule would reduce fees earned from debit cards anywhere between 60% and 80% starting in the second half of 2011. This year, the company said it expects to produce $2.9 billion in revenue from that business.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/19/news/companies/durbin_impact/index.htm
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:16 AM
Response to Original message
27. Pimco Sells Black Swan Protection as Wall Street Markets Fear
Edited on Tue Jul-20-10 08:16 AM by ozymandius
The efforts to protect against another disaster, which helped drive up the relative costs of the most bearish credit derivatives to the highest in two years, show that investors’ psyches still haven’t recovered from the Lehman bankruptcy on Sept. 15, 2008, which erased $20.3 trillion in stock market value worldwide and caused credit markets to freeze.

Demand for protection against so-called tail risks, extreme market moves that Wall Street’s financial models fail to detect, is increasing as investors react to events such as the May 6 stock market rout that briefly sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down almost 1,000 points, or Greece’s sovereign debt crisis, which on June 7 sent the euro to a four-year low against the U.S. dollar.


The Pimco Tail Risk Hedging Fund 1 will be the first in a potential series of partnerships, according to a private placement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 23. The initial fund will be designed to protect investors from a drop of more than 15 percent in a benchmark index that Bhansali declined to identify.

ELVIS

Deutsche Bank is marketing a tail-risk hedging index that gains in value when investor expectation of stock-market volatility increases, according to material the bank sent to clients. The so-called Equity Long Volatility Investment Strategy, or ELVIS, uses derivatives called variance swaps linked to the S&P 500 that bet on the index’s volatility. Derivatives are contracts whose value is tied to assets including stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, or events such as changes in interest rates or the weather.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0tbiS7HfS60



Taleb, author of The Black Swan, contends that risks are becoming more severe. I wonder if Taleb means 'severe' to include some aspects of price discovery in overvalued assets like CRE?
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Hawkowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #27
38. The risks ARE becoming more severe
I would contend that these so called "tail risks" are becoming more severe because they are being orchestrated. Mainly because this is the way to the big payoff for Wall Street in a perpetually sliding market. Basically it is a "pump and dump" boiler room operation writ large. It is perhaps the ultimate manifestation of disaster capitalism where now Wall Street picks one specific class of investment or commodity and then rigs it to fail after a bubble inflation of gargantuan proportions.

It starts out with Goldman buying some derivatives as insurance on some shaky "investments" and progresses to fraudulently underwriting Greek bonds and then betting against them. Unfortunately, Goldman and other Wall Street firms who pile on, are now making bets so large, and committing fraud on such an ever increasing larger scale, that the world is running out of money to pay off the rigged bets.

This is analogous to Goldman playing Russian roulette with the world's economy, except every time they win they load another cartridge in the cylinder.

The frequency alone of these so called Black Swan events almost proves the markets are being rigged. In a well regulated, well balanced market such events should follow a statistically normal distribution if these events are mainly random. However the statistical bias indicates quite the contrary. This is what happens when there is a mere handful of TBTF entities manipulating the markets.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #38
42. Who in their right mind would be a counter-party to one of these pieces of shit? n/t
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:13 PM
Response to Reply #42
62. Professionals.
To whom I fart in their general direction.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #38
46. In the Way All Frauds Are Orchestrated Post0Greenspan/Reagan/Bush
In a regulated market, such things would be impossible.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:45 AM
Response to Original message
32. 9:40am - Look out below!!
Edited on Tue Jul-20-10 08:45 AM by Roland99
Dow 10,019 -135 -1.33%
Nasdaq 2,163 -35 -1.59%
S&P 500 1,059 -12 -1.10%
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 09:02 AM
Response to Original message
34. I want a second opinion on this!!
Edited on Tue Jul-20-10 09:03 AM by Po_d Mainiac
Elizabeth Warren Could Head CFPB Without Senate Confirmation
snip
According to the bill's language, the Treasury Secretary has sole authority to build the new agency before it's ultimately transferred to the Federal Reserve. That includes anointing a person to head the effort on his behalf, and under his authority. The interim head would serve until the President's nominee is confirmed by the Senate.
snip
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/19/elizabeth-warren-could-he_n_651759.html
:wow:
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #34
36. That's how I read it.
There is precedent to support this. The Department of Homeland Security was formed this way, first as an office under the Executive then transferred to its own digs after the Senate confirmed the formation of the department at the cabinet level.

Just as the new legislation grants the formation of this office - the originator of the office is the one listed in the drafted legislation - which is a coup for Geithner. This represents and accumulation of power for him.

From the article:
"The statute gives the Treasury Secretary the obligation to get it done, but doesn't tell him how to get it done," Gail Hillebrand, a senior attorney at Consumers Union and manager of the group's financial services campaign, said about the Secretary's role in creating the new agency.

Picking an interim head is one of the authorities Congress granted him in the legislation. Whomever Geithner hires would be serving that role on his behalf, and would ultimately be his responsibility.

So Geithner could, presumably, hire Warren on a contract basis to perform that role, Hillebrand said.
The person to head this department would be Geithner's responsibility after the transfer. After the transfer, the interim director would remain in place possible for many months. Subsequent nominees to this post would then have to pass a Senate confirmation vote.

I will keep looking for more information.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #36
41. So, Timmeh would hire her on his own?
Edited on Tue Jul-20-10 11:31 AM by Roland99
Pardon me while I don't hold my breath.



To add...imho...having this "agency" be a part of the Federal Reserve is a slap in the face to consumers.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #41
58. Someone would have to twist his pipecleaner-thick arm.
As far as I can tell - that's the reason for the 1001 petitions in support of her candidacy. I know that I've signed at least two and another message in support of her arrived in my e-mail box today from Bernie Sanders.

Pressure needs to build on Geithner.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
40. Glaxo Said to Have Paid $1 Billion Over Paxil Suits
Glaxo Said to Have Paid $1 Billion Over Paxil Suits
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-20/glaxo-said-to-have-paid-1-billion-to-resolve-paxil-birth-defect-lawsuits.html

GlaxoSmithKline Plc has agreed to pay more than $1 billion to resolve more than 800 cases alleging its Paxil antidepressant caused birth defects in some users’ children, according to people familiar with the settlements.

The accords, which provide an average payout of more than $1.2 million to families of affected children, leave more than 100 birth-defect cases still pending, the people said. Officials of Glaxo, the U.K.’s biggest drugmaker, said July 15 they set aside $2.4 billion to resolve litigation over Paxil and its Avandia diabetes drug.

“It looks as if this should be covered in the liabilities to be charged in the second-quarter numbers,” Nick Turner, an analyst at Mirabaud Securities in London, said in an interview today. “If there are further liabilities to be disclosed in the third-quarter numbers, that would be very disappointing.”

The birth-defect settlements bring to more than $2 billion the amount Glaxo has agreed to pay to resolve a variety of Paxil-related suits, including claims it caused suicides or attempted suicides and addiction problems, the people said.



Yeah...wouldn't want to disappoint the stockholders. All those people with babies with birth defects should just stfu.

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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #40
56. The children were born with heart defects

I had not heard of Paxil causing birth defects. With thalidomide, one could readily see that the moms took the drug because the babies were born with short arms. But heart defects would be harder to see, and prove, that Paxil caused them.

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #56
63. The discovery process in these cases could uncover real, rather than alleged, problems.
If the drug proved a health risk in some cases - then the size of the lawsuit could balloon even greater with more lawsuits added to the ones alleging birth defects. I do not defend the maker of Paxil for settling these cases. In a historical sense, it is usually the way this kind of litigation plays out.

I know people who have been on Paxil. It is a fiendishly addictive drug with horrible side effects when a person weans off it.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #63
64. If all babies born to moms who took Paxil

have heart defects, then conclusive evidence that Paxil caused the heart defects.

But what if only some of the babies have heart defects? Then did the moms who took Paxil, did they also smoke, or drink, or have high blood pressure, were the moms older, or took Paxil during the entire pregnancy, or maybe just during the first trimester, or any of a myriad of other things would need to be checked out.

And I'm wondering if just Paxil causes tragic side effects in babies? Or other SSRIs (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors)? My daughter takes a different SSRI, for many years, so this is a concern to me. I worry that she has become addicted to the SSRI, but she suffers terribly from depression, and feels she needs them to combat this illness. Off to do more research.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 08:49 PM
Response to Reply #64
65. These are excellent questions that need answering.
My uncle is a pharmacist. He says that charting drug interactions can be very complicated. By my estimation - projecting drug efects are just as complicated as factoring the effects of drug interactions based on age, weight, gender, underlying conditions, etc.

A friend who is a psychiatrist says that SSRI medications have become more sophisticated these days. Prescription medications can be tailored more toward the uniqueness of a person's individual chemistry to avoid side effects commonly associated with taking just one antidepressant. Has your daughter sought he advice of a physician to discuss options?
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 01:03 PM
Response to Original message
45. Center for Policy and Economic Research: It's the JOBS STUPID!!!!
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #45
47. Looks Highly Optimistic to Me
so in 2013, we get a real President who starts to bring the jobs and capital home?
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. Now that would be....unexpected. nt
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 02:13 PM
Response to Original message
49. Didn't know if you guys had seen this story from Zero Hedge
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
50. wtf?
that is all.
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 02:37 PM
Response to Original message
52. Cling to 10K.
An historical note.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #52
55. "Yahoo!" - DJIA
:silly: :crazy:

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-21-10 01:36 PM
Response to Original message
69. Timmy Open His Mouth at 2PM?
Dropped like a stone...

Maybe they heard the fulsome lies that the O Man uttered when signing the finance deform bill....talk about pie in the sky promises.

Either he's a complete dupe of the financiers, or the most cynical president yet.

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