Bush, Kerry tied in battleground states

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

By WILL LESTER
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER


Democratic Presidential candidate, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., right, and former rival Howard Dean, raise their arms during a rally at George Washington University in Washington Thursday, March 25, 2004. Kerry and Dean put aside their disagreements over tax cuts and the war in Iraq and promised their supporters they would combine forces to help the Massachusetts senator drive President Bush out of the White House. (AP Photo/Matthew Cavanaugh)
WASHINGTON -- After two weeks of trading accusations in television ads costing millions of dollars, President Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry are virtually tied in polls in five states likely to determine who will win the 2004 election.

Polls from key battleground states - Ohio, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida - suggest a fierce contest is under way for their electoral votes. In the 2000 election, Bush collected 271 electoral votes, just one more than he needed for victory.

In Ohio, Kerry had the backing of 46 percent, Bush 44 percent and independent Ralph Nader 5 percent, said a poll released Friday. Five percent said they were undecided in the Ohio poll done by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. Bush won Ohio over Democrat Al Gore in 2000 by a 50-46 margin.

In Wisconsin, Kerry had the backing of 46 percent and Bush of 43 percent, while Nader had the support of 4 percent and 7 percent were undecided, said a Wisconsin poll released Friday. That poll was done by the American Research Group of Manchester, N.H. Gore won Wisconsin in 2000 by slightly more than 5,000 votes.

-more-

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/apelection_story.asp?category=1131&slug=Presidential%20Polls

[Lavrenty Beria]

1. Red or Blue?

This actually bodes less well for Dubya. He can't afford to lose Ohio.

[newyawker99]

12. Hi Lavrenty Beria!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Ernesto]

14. You Rock LB (welcome)

& so does NY 99.....

[fearnobush]

2. These were basically the same numbers before the Chimp spent

16 million in ads in those states.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

5. Good

It means people aren't buying the Bushit.

[Kimber Scott]

3. So, if Nader wasn't running, would his backers vote for Kerry, or not?

This is so sad to me.

[yardwork]

4. I find these polls very hard to believe.

The mood in these swing states is very different now than it was in 2000. At that time there was a lot of residual anger at Clinton that pulled down Gore, and Shrub was a relatively unknown entity with a fairly positive appeal to many.

Now, a lot of people who were independent or moderate in 2000 are really angry with Shrub, and they definitely don't plan to vote for him.

I suspect that these poll numbers are about as accurate as Shrub's economic numbers. They've been washed. I suspect that the real numbers show Kerry ahead of Shrub about 60/40 in most states, but the Shrub doesn't want us to know that.

Messing with polls would fit right in with Shrub's attitude toward all data and statistics - if they don't match his preconceived ideas, they get tossed or washed.

[cynicinthesouth]

6. You could whitewash one or two polls

maybe... but not all of them.

[Enraged_Ape]

8. That depends on how many samples you run...

and who's paying for them.

Theoretically, with enough trials, you could call people in a random sample and get 100% Bush vs. 0% Kerry. Statistically, it could happen, depending on how your sample is chosen and how many times you run the poll.

They always talk about the "margin of error" in these polls, but they NEVER discuss how they come up with their samples, or how many trials they actually conduct. I really believe that a polling company will do whatever they can to skew the results in favor of whoever is paying for the poll (which in most cases is the corporate-owned and rightist media), while still lending some air of scientific credibility. After all, if a particular company doesn't find a way to game a poll for a client, a competitor most assuredly will. It's just not that difficult.

I tend to take polls solely for what they're worth: strictly as marketing tools for the people who run and report them. And as such, you can rest assured you will NEVER hear about polls that reflect all that badly on the payer. And that, IMHO, makes all these media polls pretty much worthless.

[fofer]

7. I think PA will go for Kerry.

Voter turnout in Philly and its surrounds will be the difference maker. There are a lot more people in that area, and most are more likely to vote Democratic. A good turnout in Philly can help overtake the more conservative, less heavily populated areas of the state. I know I'll be volunteering in my particular suburb!

[dax]

9. Better to start NOW making sure everyone is registered etc.

We are already phoning now in Oregon- its a good idea to wake people up and make them start watching the great news that is out there- you know how saturated they will be by BUSH the last weeks before the vote. If they start reading/watching now they may catch on to what a hypocrite he is by the time November gets here. We get lists of swing voters from the Dem Party and we use union lists. SEIU/AFSCME/NALC/OPEU/UFCW/Teachers both and Nurses all running BIG joint efforts this election to get out the vote-best way to win there really are more DEMS we just don't have the money to reach them and -they are so damn busy since they have to work for a living. Also-the more people reached who are started on a framework to interpret what is going on, they share what they learn with others and pretty soon it changes many more. I was the only person at my Post Office openly against the war in Iraq and after enduring a year of being called every name in the book, the same people are coming up to me now to tell me things like "Bush knew about 9/11 Iraq was just about the oil" as if they don't remember what I was telling them more than a year ago. out of 110, there are maybe 3 Bush supporters left. there were at least 25 or 30 before.

[fofer]

10. Great advice. . .

Thank you!

[Ernesto]

13. welcome to the party fofer

dig in for the fight!

[osaMABUSh]

15. I encourage voting in the primary to make sure not purged

In Pa. and other battleground states I encourage all Dems to vote to make sure they are still on the rolls and avoid a November surprise at the polls.

[shanti]

11. do these states have electronic voting machines?

the fix is in, they're setting us up now.