STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday August 10

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday August 10, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 9, 2010

Dow... 10,698.75 +45.19 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq... 2,305.69 +17.22 (+0.75%)
S&P 500... 1,127.79 +6.15 (+0.55%)
Gold future... 1,204 +1.00 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.83 +0.01 (+0.25%)
30-Year Bond 4.02 +0.02 (+0.55%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 2.8%

08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q2
Briefing.com 1.3%
Consensus 1.4%
Prior -1.3%

10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.4%
Prior 0.5%

14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Aug 10

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Ghost Dog]

47. Productivity weakens in second quarter

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Business productivity fell for the first time in 1-1/2 years in the second quarter and labor costs hardly rose, according to government data that underlined the halting pace of economic recovery.

Productivity declined by an annual rate of 0.9 percent after rising at a revised 3.9 percent rate in the first quarter, a Labor Department report showed on Tuesday. Falling output per worker implies the economy is operating less efficiently because overall production is below its potential.

...

Other data showed consumers growing increasingly gloomy about the economic outlook while business inventories increased and sales slumped.

...

Compensation per hour contracted at a 0.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter and was flat in the first three months of the year

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100810/bs_nm/us_usa_economy

[Ghost Dog]

49. Fed to buy Treasuries with maturing mortgage debt

... The Fed, which left benchmark overnight interest rates steady in a zero to 0.25 percent range, also renewed its pledge to keep them low for an extended period, as widely expected.

The decision to reinvest mortgage bond proceeds, an effort to keep market-set borrowing costs down, represents a significant policy shift for a central bank that just a few months ago had been avidly debating an exit strategy from the extraordinary stimulus delivered during the financial crisis.

...

The move was somewhat surprising. Although many analysts and investors had expected the Fed to announce it was reinvesting the mortgage proceeds, most had thought it would buy more mortgage debt instead of government bonds.

In a statement at the close of a one-day meeting, Fed officials offered a more gloomy outlook for the economy, saying the recovery in output and employment "has slowed in recent months."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6753HW20100810


...Federal Reserve officials will maintain their holdings of securities to prevent money from being drained out of the financial system in their first attempt to bolster the economy in more than a year.

The central bank said it will reinvest principal payments on its mortgage holdings into long-term Treasury securities. The Fed retained a commitment to keep its benchmark interest rate close to zero for an “extended period.”

“The pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. “To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level.”

Stocks pared losses, the dollar weakened and Treasuries rallied. With growth slowing in the second quarter and company job gains in July falling short of estimates, today’s step signals that risks of a downturn have increased enough for the Fed to delay its exit from unprecedented stimulus. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress last month that the Fed was “prepared to take further policy actions as needed.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-10/fed-to-reinvest-principal-on-mortgage-proceeds-into-long-term-treasuries.html

[Demeter]

58. Monetizing the Debt--By Any Other Name

is just as bogus.

[dixiegrrrrl]

61. Is the Fed admitting to slow Treasury sales?

Seems I remember reading that there were fewer and fewer bids at the last auctions.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls to below $81 ahead of Fed meeting

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $81 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as investors looked to a Federal Reserve meeting for possible policy changes to boost U.S. economic growth.

Oil jumped out of the $70s to a three-month high last week and has held above $80 despite a weak U.S. July employment report released Friday. Traders are speculating the Fed may announce later Tuesday new stimulus measures to keep the economy from slipping back into recession.

Traders have shrugged off rising U.S. crude inventories as low interest rates encourage higher-risk investments. Based only on supply and demand, oil should be trading between $20 and $30, Cameron Hanover said.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, heating oil fell 0.88 cent to $2.1450 a gallon, gasoline dropped 0.92 cent to $2.1095 a gallon and natural gas slid 1 cent to $4.299 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. House moves to help teachers, public workers

WASHINGTON – Hoping to show disenchanted voters that they are the party that cares about jobs, House Democrats are convening an emergency session to pass a bill aimed at saving hundreds of thousands of teachers and other public workers from unemployment.

Lawmakers rushing back from town hall meetings and vacations for the one-day session Tuesday may also address another issue that will be on voters' minds this November — lax border security — with passage of a $600 million bill to beef up surveillance along the U.S.-Mexican border.

The legislation provides $10 billion to school districts to rehire laid-off teachers or ensure that more teachers won't be let go before the new school year begins. The money could keep more than 160,000 teachers, including 16,000 in California and 14,000 in Texas, on the job, advocates say.

The other half of the bill has $16 billion for six more months of increased Medicaid payments to the states. That would free up money for states to meet other budget priorities, including keeping more than 150,000 police officers and other public workers on the payroll. Some three-fifths of states have already factored in the federal money in drawing up their budgets for the current fiscal year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100810/ap_on_bi_ge/us_jobs_bill

[ozymandius]

4. Economists cut forecasts and see more Fed action

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The economic recovery will fade as government supports dry up, and the Federal Reserve may need to do more to boost growth, economists said in a survey on Tuesday.

The monthly Blue Chip poll of leading economists showed nearly 70 percent had lowered their economic growth forecasts in the past month.

The consensus now expects gross domestic product to expand at a lackluster 2.4 percent pace in the third quarter, down from a July forecast for 2.7 percent. For the fourth quarter, the economists expected a growth rate of 2.7 percent, down from 2.8 percent a month ago.

The economists predicted a monthly gain of around 119,000 in private sector jobs for the rest of this year, and 173,000 a month next year. At that rate, the economy would have recovered less than half of the jobs lost during the recession by the end of next year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100810/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_forecasts

[ozymandius]

8. Fed Efforts to Spur Growth May Move Markets More Than Economy

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers meeting today may find the market reaction to any announcement of steps to spur growth will be bigger than the impact on the economy.

Options outlined last month by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke include providing more information about the Fed’s pledge to maintain record-low interest rates, reducing the rate it pays on banks’ reserve deposits and sustaining or expanding the size of the balance sheet.

Investors would see new Fed efforts as foreshadowing more dramatic steps to come, including large-scale asset purchases, said Goodfriend, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business in Pittsburgh. Weaker job gains at U.S. companies since April and a slowdown in growth last quarter are among signs the recovery is stalling, increasing pressure for more Fed easing.

Committing to keep borrowing costs low for a set period also may not prove very helpful, said Angelo Melino, a former special adviser to the Bank of Canada and a University of Toronto economics professor. The Bank of Canada in April 2009 provided such a timeframe, reduced borrowing costs, he said.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=af4H.sVGMwMc&pos=4

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The image has formed that the Fed is out of ammunition.

[Roland99]

34. They've been trying to beg, borrow, & steal their way to maintaining capitalization for the big boys

while the common folk fight for the scraps that fall from the table.

[Po_d Mainiac]

35. Thus setting the stage for a deflationary/inflationary death spiral

If you really need it, and the necessity is dependent on petroleum, we can expect the prices on those items to rise in proportion to the amount of new paper that comes out of QE2

If the item is not a true requirement for daily living, we can expect the price to crash.

Early photographs of the popular migration routes, used by settlers heading West, comes to mind. The flotsam ejected from wagons ranged from trunks of formal attire to the heirloom China tea set. These ejected items were often the most expense possessions packed, but when the issue became plain survival, their worth was negligible.

So what will be the items shunned as the working class sinks further into the mire of the deflationary/inflationary swamp? I expect the modern version of the Chisholm Trail to be littered with iPods, over-sized gas guzzling SUV's, 400hp watercraft, and billboard sized flat screen TV's.

I find the argument that people won't buy during a period of deflation, because stuff will be cheaper tomorrow, pure bullshit. If that was how people really think, they would make purchases when they could buy outright, and not pad the banksters pockets with interest payments. People are going to stop buying because they no longer are able to defer payments into the future.

The folly of having a service based economy is just starting to make an impact.

If you enjoyed the last 2 years, you'll love the next 5 :sarcasm:
YMMV

[Roland99]

37. Well, for the rich, bonds will be amongst the items jettisoned early (Warren Buffet article>>>>)

Buffett Shortens Bond-Holding Duration After Inflation Warning
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-10/buffett-shortens-duration-of-bond-portfolio-after-warning-about-inflation.html

Twenty-one percent of holdings including Treasuries, municipal debt, foreign-government securities and corporate bonds were due in one year or less as of June 30, Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire said in a filing Aug. 6. That compares with 18 percent on March 31, and 16 percent at the end of last year’s second quarter.

“It may be a sign that Buffett expects interest rates to start rising, maybe sooner than the conventional wisdom,” Meyer Shields, an analyst in Baltimore at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. who has a “sell” rating on Berkshire, said in an interview.

Inflation has fallen to a 44-year low even as the Federal Reserve more than doubled its balance sheet in two years to $2.33 trillion to help draw the economy out of recession. A U.S. jobs report last week showing that companies hired fewer workers than forecast in July pushed the two-year Treasury yield to a record low. Bill Gross, founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., advised investors to buy longer-dated maturities.

Buffett, 79, urged Congress last year to guard against inflation as the U.S. economy returned to growth. In an August 2009 op-ed in the New York Times, the Berkshire chief executive officer said government must address the “monetary medicine” that was pumped into the financial system after the 2008 crisis.

[Po_d Mainiac]

51. Nah, paper has several uses.

Best of all, it's a gr8 fire starter!

[Ghost Dog]

9. QE, Or Not QE, That Is the Question

The focus of attention, and a possible tipping point for all global traded market values, is the FOMC statement that will be issued at 14:15 ET on Tuesday. There really can be no underestimation of how mixed the current global growth picture is right now, and of how important the market reaction to the FOMC will be.

...

A point of note this time around is that portfolios have been cashed out ahead of a potential drop in risk-asset values with historically high redemption levels as investors pull equity positions and go long fixed income assets, as the search for low-risk yield continues.

With such anemic participation levels it is very easy for algorithm trade to melt up or down with impunity, in short sharp bursts of high energy trade that house the movement for the entire session.

...

No mention of QE would leave equity markets questioning what will drive 3rd quarter growth, and question further where 4th quarter valuations would then be without a stimulus of some sort to drive consumers, or at best unfreeze liquidity pipes that still have not thawed enough for inter-bank lending to be affordable and reasonably priced.

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/219664-qe-or-not-qe-that-is-the-question?source=yahoo

[ozymandius]

11. The word used most frequently these days is "easing"

but "quantitative easing" is exactly what that means. All this effort from the Fed is bent on keeping debt cheap. Flooding the currency streams with dollars is the trick pony.

[ozymandius]

12. Number of the Week: Cheap Money Isn’t Free

....
With markets expecting the Fed to keep its target rate somewhere between zero and 1% for at least the next two years, borrowing for short and long periods is extremely cheap. That’s great for big companies and banks, but it’s coming at the expense of savers — a group whom, in the longer term, the U.S. needs to encourage.

U.S. corporations have taken full advantage of low interest rates, going on a bond-issuing binge that has left them with tons of cash, which they appear to be holding largely as insurance against a new bout of financial turmoil, rather than spending on new hires. Nonfinancial companies were sitting on about $8.4 trillion in cash as of the end of March, or about 7% of all company assets, the highest level since 1963. Even before its bond issue, IBM had $12.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, which accounted for about 12% of all its assets.

Big banks, for their part, are seeing bumper earnings as they make use of cheap money and help companies issue all those bonds. Even as their lending continued to shrink, they generated more profits in the first quarter of 2010 than they have since before the recession, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/08/07/number-of-the-week-cheap-money-isnt-free/

---

Let's say that you control a bank with access to the Fed discount window. What would you do if you could borrow money at 0.25% then walk across the street and buy a 5-year bond that yields 1.52%? We have imported the carry trade on our own debt.

[ozymandius]

5. Wall Street closely watching Fed's next move

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve policymakers are pondering ways to jump-start the economic recovery. The trick: making sure whatever they do or say doesn't rattle Wall Street.

U.S. stocks closed higher Monday as investors anticipated reassuring words or action Tuesday by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. Asian shares were mixed in early trade Tuesday.

A disappointing jobs report on Friday intensified pressure on Fed policymakers to consider new action aimed at stimulating economic growth. That report showed the unemployment rate stuck at 9.5 percent in July and a third straight month of anemic hiring from the private sector.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100810/ap_on_bi_ge/us_federal_reserve

---

The likely actions from the Fed remain, as they have been, to make debt cheaper. The other likely option, as the story relates, is to buy government securities thereby making benchmark interest rates lower. The song remans the same.

[Demeter]

59. Obama Could Fire Larry, Moe and Curly

I bet that would goose the Markets.

[Festivito]

6. Debt: 08/06/2010 13,310,114,269,532.31 (DOWN 773,082,133.49) (Fri)

(Up a little. Good morn.)
A wet, wild weekend, and, now, school rooms and bank rooms with sneezing.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,777,088,587,625.31 + 4,533,025,681,907.00
UP 53,282,619.67 + DOWN 826,364,753.16

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,227.62 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,825,962 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,959.97.
A family of three owes $128,879.91. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,519,562,289.61.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,415,649,831.69.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,273,209,514.54.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 213 reports in 310 days of FY2010 averaging 6.57B$ per report, 4.52B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 898 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/06/2010 13,310,114,269,532.31 BHO (UP 2,683,237,220,619.23 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,400,285,266,020.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,648,722,974,508.13 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/19/2010 -000,002,380,240.85 ----- Mon
07/20/2010 +000,028,467,145.72 ------------*******
07/21/2010 +000,002,455,391.44 ------------******
07/22/2010 +010,637,573,043.16 ------------**********
07/23/2010 -000,409,271,286.12 ---
07/26/2010 +000,027,014,896.10 ------------******* Mon
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******

89,452,456,876.02 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4496907&mesg_id=4497405

[Festivito]

62. Debt: 08/09/2010 13,311,250,227,462.87 (UP 1,135,957,930.56) (Mon)

(Down a little. Good day.)
Late this morning. Troubling. Had a date with the doctor, he screwed me and didn't even make a second date.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,776,823,621,528.39 + 4,534,426,605,934.48
DOWN 264,966,096.92 + UP 1,400,924,027.48

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,227.41 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,845,900 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,960.87.
A family of three owes $128,882.62. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,336,152,127.95.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,913,178,227.16.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,786,946,671.45.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 214 reports in 313 days of FY2010 averaging 6.55B$ per report, 4.48B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 895 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/09/2010 13,311,250,227,462.87 BHO (UP 2,684,373,178,549.79 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,401,421,223,951.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,634,245,197,259.27 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/20/2010 +000,028,467,145.72 ------------*******
07/21/2010 +000,002,455,391.44 ------------******
07/22/2010 +010,637,573,043.16 ------------**********
07/23/2010 -000,409,271,286.12 ---
07/26/2010 +000,027,014,896.10 ------------******* Mon
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon

89,189,871,019.95 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4498016&mesg_id=4498031

[ozymandius]

7. China’s Widening Trade Surplus Puts Wen Under Yuan Pressure

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China’s trade surplus reached an 18- month high as exports rose to a record and import gains slowed, adding pressure on officials to allow faster appreciation of the yuan and signaling a diminished contribution to global growth.

The gap surged 170 percent from a year earlier to $28.7 billion, the customs bureau said, exceeding the forecasts of all 29 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Exports increased 38.1 percent to $145.5 billion and imports advanced 22.7 percent to $116.8 billion, the bureau said on its website today.

Premier Wen Jiabao’s government has limited the yuan’s rise to less than 1 percent since ending a two-year peg to the dollar, and today’s report may stoke criticism by U.S. lawmakers three months before mid-term elections. The slowest pace of import growth in nine months added to evidence of a moderation in China’s expansion and contributed to a slide in Asian stocks.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent at 3:05 p.m. in Hong Kong. Australia, where growth has been propelled by Chinese demand for iron and coal, saw its S&P/ASX 200 lose 1.1 percent.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV3fyTmISYmU&pos=1

[ozymandius]

10. Gates Orders U.S. Defense Cuts, Setting Up Battles in Congress

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the Pentagon needs to save money by further reducing a “cumbersome” U.S. military hierarchy, setting up potential battles with members of Congress who support targeted programs.

Gates announced plans yesterday to lop spending on support contractors by more than one-quarter over three years and close a military command in Norfolk, Virginia, that coordinates planning and training across military branches. He said the savings would be used to sustain the U.S. force and improve weapons for future threats.

Gates has won some campaigns to cut costs, including curtailing or canceling almost 20 programs this fiscal year that the department said would have cost more than $300 billion.

The defense bureaucracy has “swelled to cumbersome and top-heavy proportions,” Gates said. Added spending since the Sept. 11 terror attacks has doubled the Pentagon’s base budget over the past decade, Gates has said.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCINVuFjv6eY&pos=9

---

My opinion: we need to reshape our purpose to peacetime operations. The massive amounts of money spent on military projects cannot be defended as necessary. It is, IMO, a threat to our national security because here is neither one nation nor empire that has been able to sustain itself with massive amounts of treasure poured into war facilities. Gates needs to use not a scalpel to trim Pentagon expenses, but an axe.

[ozymandius]

13. G'bye, all.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I hope you have a pleasant day. :hi:

[florida08]

14. you know things are desperate when

Defense Secretary Gates targets jobs

WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced plans Monday to slash the Pentagon's reliance on contractors and eliminate a major command in order to save money to fight the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and to modernize the military.

Prime targets for saving, Gates said, are bureaucracies and headquarters that have "swelled to cumbersome and top-heavy proportions." Their growth was fueled by doubling the defense budget since 2001 on top of additional spending on the two wars, Gates said.

The time of fat defense and war budgets — the Pentagon spends about $700 billion a year — will soon end, he said, and the military must eliminate unnecessary spending.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/2010-08-10-gates10_ST_N.htm?csp=YahooModule_News

Some would say better late than never..but imo sometimes late is just too late. Yelling about tarp while we 'feed the meter' for the pentagon is not just dumb but fiscally insane.

Good morning ozy..not going to be a good day for markets

[florida08]

15. sacrifices must be made

[tclambert]

16. Pensions? That's just picking the company's pocket for NO WORK!

My apologies to Mr. Scrooge.

The Republican utopia has no pensions for retired workers, only for the rich, no Social Security, and the lowest wages possible. When people retire, they immediately drop dead. Their debts survive, transferred to their children, who must work until they drop dead. Every scrap worth anything at all belongs to the rich. Since the bulk of the consumer class (workers) no longer have any money, economic activity dries up. Then even the rich suffer. The Republican solution to that is, of course, more tax cuts for the rich.

[xchrom]

17. recommend

[DemReadingDU]

18. Taibbi: Denver Schools Get Whacked

8/9/10 Denver Schools Get Whacked by Matt Taibbi

Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times is single-handedly resurrecting the Gray Lady's reputation as a muckraker of the first order. Having already blown a big hole in the side of Goldman Sachs with her December, 2009 story exposing its crooked deal with hedge fund king John Paulson, Morgenson this week took an ax to Colorado's Democratic Senator Michael Bennet, uncovering a Jefferson-County style scam he helped perpetrate on the Denver School system on behalf of several Wall Street banks (including primarily JeffCo villain JP Morgan Chase) while acting as Denver's school superintendent years ago.

The essence of this deal is that Bennet arranged for the Denver school system to raise $750 million for its pension fund using an exotic transaction that involved interest rate swaps. Had the schools raised money using traditional fixed-rate bond issues, the debt would have featured 7.2% interest rates. Instead, Bennet and JP Morgan worked together to raise bucketloads of cash from investors using variable-rate debt with interest rates of about 5%. The banks then slapped an interest-rate swap on the deal that allowed the Denver school system to mimic a fixed-rate loan -- for a fee, of course.

Again, just like in Jefferson County, Alabama, the basic idea here was similar to a homeowner who buys a house with an option-ARM mortgage instead of a traditional fixed-rate loan. You pay less in interest up front, but you're more exposed if the rates change in the future. So to protect against rate changes, you enter into the interest-rate swap, by which a bank like JP Morgan assumes your variable-rate risk in exchange for a fee.

Imagine Satan's very own credit card contract agreement and you get a sense of how much this borrowing is costing the citizens of Denver; so far, the school system has already paid over $115 million in interest and fees since the deal was struck, or about $25 million more than originally anticipated.

And just like the Alabama sewer deal, where JP Morgan slapped an absurd $750 million termination fee on Jefferson County when the deal went south, in Denver the only way out of the deal is an $81 million termination fee, which Morgenson notes would be roughly 19% the size of Denver's annual payroll.

In Jefferson County, local politicians took bribes to sign off on these crappy deals. There's no such allegation of bribery in the Bennet case per se, but instead what ended up happening is that Bennet, after he left the Denver school system, collected campaign contributions from many of the banks involved, including JP Morgan and Bank of America.

more...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/matt-taibbi/blogs/TaibbiData_May2010/189565/83512


8/6/10 Exotic Deals Put Denver Schools Deeper in Debt
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON

In the spring of 2008, the Denver public school system needed to plug a $400 million hole in its pension fund. Bankers at JPMorgan Chase offered what seemed to be a perfect solution.
more...
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/business/06denver.html

[Demeter]

19. Faint Progress on Drug Payoffs

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/10/opinion/10tue3.html

Legislation that would end a devious tactic used by some pharmaceutical companies to delay the introduction of cheaper generic drugs squeaked by a Senate panel recently. Its prospects for ultimate passage remain cloudy unless Senate Democratic leaders aggressively seize the opportunity to save billions of dollars for the federal budget and hard-pressed consumers.

The underhanded tactic, known as pay for delay, occurs when a generic drug company tries to bring its product to market by challenging the patents on a brand-name drug. Rather than engage in a costly and unpredictable court battle, the brand-name manufacturer sometimes pays the challenger substantial compensation to delay marketing its drug, and the generic company often welcomes the easy, risk-free money.

Both companies profit. The consumer, unfortunately, loses — by paying high, brand-name drug prices instead of lower prices for a generic. The Federal Trade Commission, which has been campaigning to end the practice, estimates that pay-for-delay agreements cost consumers at least $3.5 billion a year.

The bill pending in the Senate, which was incorporated into a general government appropriations bill, is similar to legislation already approved by the House. It would greatly curtail pay-for-delay practices by presuming that such agreements are illegal and anticompetitive while leaving an opportunity for the affected companies to overcome that presumption in court....

[Demeter]

20. A Welfare Check and a Voting Card

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/10/opinion/10tue1.html

After years of deliberate neglect, the Justice Department is finally beginning to enforce the federal law requiring states to provide voter registration at welfare and food stamp offices. The effort not only promises to bring hundreds of thousands of hard-to-reach voters into the electorate, but it could also reduce the impact of advocacy organizations whose role in registering voters caused such a furor in 2008.

The National Voter Registration Act of 1993, better known as the motor-voter law, is well-known for making it possible to register to vote at state motor vehicle offices. However, the law also required states to allow registration at offices that administer food stamps, welfare, Medicaid, disability assistance and child health programs. States were enthusiastic about the motor-vehicle section of the law, and millions of new voters got on the rolls while getting a driver’s license. But registration at public assistance offices proved far less popular.

In part, that was because of additional paperwork at those offices, but in many states, Republican officials did not want to provide easy entry to the voting rolls for low-income people whom they considered more likely to vote Democratic. The Bush administration devoted its attention to seeking out tiny examples of voter fraud and purging people from the rolls in swing states. It did little to enforce the motor-voter law despite years of complaints from civic groups and Democratic lawmakers.

In April, however, President Obama’s Justice Department sent the states a set of guidelines making it clear that it expected full compliance with the public-assistance office section of the law — the first time in the 15-year history of the motor-voter law that the Justice Department has explained what kinds of offices are covered and what procedures are to be used. The guidelines make it clear that people applying for benefits must not only be offered the chance to register but must be given help in filling out the forms if they ask. If states do not comply voluntarily, lawsuits are likely to follow....

[Demeter]

21. In campaign mode, Obama makes Texas dash for cash

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_obama

....Obama raised up to $1 million for the Democratic National Committee at a hotel in Austin, where the mantra of his midterms — "Are we going to move forward, or are we going to move backwards?" — played well to his lunch crowd.

Later, he was the headline draw at a fundraiser in Dallas that raised about $650,000 to help Democrats in key Senate races, held at a private home within about five miles from where Bush now lives.

And in between came an education speech at the University of Texas, where the screams of students prompted Obama to raise a voice even louder, combining for a raucous campaign feel.

This is Obama's August offensive, a string of tactical, time-gobbling campaign stops to raise a bunch of money and revitalize Democratic voters. The traditional result of approaching midterm elections is that the party of the sitting president loses seats; in this case, with anti-incumbency fervor soaring, Democrats could be in for a lashing....


IN RESPONSE, I'LL LET ROBERT PRESTON SPEAK:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI_Oe-jtgdI

[Demeter]

22. Soak The Very, Very Rich by James Surowiecki

....The current debate over taxes takes none of this into account. At the moment, we have a system of tax brackets well suited to nineteenth-century New Zealand. Our system sets the top bracket at three hundred and seventy-five thousand dollars, with a tax rate of thirty-five per cent. (People in the second-highest bracket, starting at a hundred and seventy-two thousand dollars for individuals, pay thirty-three per cent.) This means that someone making two hundred thousand dollars a year and someone making two hundred million dollars a year pay at similar tax rates. LeBron James and LeBron James’s dentist: same difference....

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2010/08/16/100816ta_talk_surowiecki#ixzz0wCgMpLN6

[Demeter]

23. The Queasy Season (James Howard Kunstler)

http://worldnewstrust.com/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&view=items&cid=149:all-edited-content&id=8116:the-queasy-season-james-howard-kunstler

....Peak pretending now joins peak oil, peak credit, peak rare earths, and all the other peaks visible to us humble valley dwellers. Pretending bought America two years of respite from the ravages of fraud and mismanagement, but now the true condition of this society reveals itself like the disfigured ghoul in the sewer lowering his mask. Further pretending is unnecessary now. We're even beyond the "modified limited hang-out" stance, as a long-ago presidential counselor once put his PR strategy in the face of crumbling public credulity. When nothing is believable, what's the point in even pretending?

Here are some truths which I believe to be self-evident: That the USA has been running on fumes since the beginning of the 21st century; That you can't get something for nothing, and attempts to do so always end in tears; That massive expenditures of energy produce equivalent globs of entropy -- which you can translate to "bad ju-ju" or the tendency of whatever can go wrong to go wrong; That because we're unwilling to re-scale and reform the things we do, nature is about to do it for us; That America has transformed itself from a nation of earnest, muscular, upright citizens to a land of overfed barbarous morons ruled by grifters; That what has been economics is about to turn dangerously political.

The greatest loss of the last decade was not in 401-Ks or manufacturing jobs or foreclosed houses, but the rule of law. Without genuine rule of law, anything goes and nothing matters. As a consequence of that, finally, everything goes. The rule of law is what kept foreigners buying our debt all these years (the fumes we've been running on). They kept buying because they believed, when all was said and done, that Americans would enforce contracts and regulate behavior in the direction of fair dealing -- not for it's own sake but because it made things work better. But when the rule of law goes here, the rest of the world will notice its absence. They'll stop believing in our money and our future. They'll cash out and we'll wash out. Then, as human tribes are wont, they may just turn around and kick our ass because we're down...

[Demeter]

24. Kunstler Thinks It Will Come Crashing Down in November

I think in two years' November. The next Presidential election will be a doozy.

[Warpy]

46. I think that will be the case if the GOP gets its way

and extends its tax cuts for billionaires, cuts Social Security (one of the things keeping consumer spending going) and eliminates unemployment insurance extensions. Every single one of its bright ideas will make things worse. Together, it will bring things to a screeching halt and this country is finished until they are.

[Demeter]

25. Economic fears rise as house prices dip

House prices began to fall for the first time in a year in July as sellers rushed to put their properties on the market and buyers became harder to find and more cautious.
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/0QSDPP/LQB9QG/IEP5S/C5N8WG/BMY66B/B7/t

I can't get past the barrier to find out it this is UK, US, or global....

It's UK---on the other hand, the condo I had my eye on has dropped 10% in price this month...

[Demeter]

26. US companies act on pay clawback rules

Big US companies are putting in place measures to claw back executive pay and adapting their board structure ahead of new corporate governance rules that will come into force as part of financial reform legislation
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/OZMCDD/9Z9VOQ/K91WR/BMFLT0/D4E6BE/YT/t

[Demeter]

27. US to pay big sums for Wall St tip-offs

New US whistleblowing incentives within the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill – that could net informants multimillion dollar pay-outs – are likely to generate a surge in allegations against US-listed companies and Wall Street banks, lawyers say
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/2SRI11/ZB5LFB/GYN7Q/BMFLPY/JIFAOA/W1/t

[Demeter]

28. Wall St turbulence hits big US banks

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley each suffered at least 10 days of trading losses in the second quarter, underlining how turbulent markets have cast a pall on Wall Street since April
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/EB8122/RNC3QY/87I64/KEBZ8Z/FX92E7/SN/t


ALL TOGETHER NOW:

"POOR, SWEET BABIES!"

[Demeter]

30. HERE'S ANOTHER PSB: KKR withdraws plan for $500m offering

The NY-listed private equity group has decided to pull out its proposed stock option as it reported a 29.4% drop in its second-quarter net income from $613.5m a year ago to $433m
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/EB8122/RNC3QY/87I64/KEBZ8Z/QFTYLN/SN/t

[Demeter]

31. A THIRD PSB!: Pentagon’s ‘endless money’ era ends

In what could be the biggest cuts to the bureaucracy since September 11, US defence secretary Robert Gates announces curbs on outside contractors, military intelligence agencies and his own staff
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/OZMCDD/5CIVF7/RP6QL/OJO400/HDJZSA/1G/t

[florida08]

38. my response would have an f in it

but yours nicer

[Demeter]

41. I'm trying not to raise my blood pressure.

But it's all good. Call it like it is--start a trend!

[Demeter]

29. Google and Verizon unveil web plan

Google and Verizon walked into a barrage of opposition from public interest groups in Washington as they unveiled a joint proposal for how traffic on the internet should be regulated
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/EB8122/RNC3QY/87I64/KEBZ8Z/UU89GH/SN/t

THINK IF WE THREATEN VERIZON WITH CHANGING TO ANOTHER VENDOR, THEY WILL DROP THIS INSANE EVIL?

(IT WOULDN'T HELP IN MY CASE--I'VE GOT THEM FOR $9.99/MONTH FOR LIFE!

[Demeter]

32. Russia to establish fertiliser champion

Russia is poised to take the first steps to form a global force in fertilisers in what would be the first making of a national champion since the mid-2000s.
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/NA70KK/D4N5JI/4VXHZ/GK1841/GKSVK0/4O/t

[Roland99]

33. Futures are dark and foreboding

S&P 500 1,115 -10.90 -0.97%
DOW 10,563 -103.00 -0.97%
NASDAQ 1,895 -18.75 -0.98%


I'm sure all will be well by 2:30...maybe tomorrow. ;-)

[Roland99]

36. Broke, USA. (the next book to get added to my shelves)

http://garyrivlin.com/books/broke-usa/

[Demeter]

39. Weekend Repost: Obama says employment growth 'needs to come faster'

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/useconomyunemploymentobama

SADLY, THIS ARTICLE DID NOT COME FROM THE ONION....

LIKE JON STEWART, I GIVE UP. HAVE A BETTER WEEK, ALL!

[Demeter]

40. Looking at articles posted elsewhere on DU today

It looks like the wheels are coming off the White House wagons, as they circle around Rahm Emanuel...and Timmy, and Larry, and Ben (or is that Larry, Moe and Curly?)

[DemReadingDU]

44. Brief summary please

I haven't been able to keep up for a couple weeks. Did Rahm or Gibbs say something?

[Dr.Phool]

45. Gibbs said that we all need drug tests.

No sense wasting good money, so I'm gonna go out and study for it.

[Roland99]

53. I kept waiting for the Rick Roll. Didn't see one. Sadness ensued.

But then I saw this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8917160

[DemReadingDU]

55. Awesome!

had not seen that before

[Roland99]

56. I was dying!

thought it might get *some* notice in GD...guess not. oh well.


:)

[Dr.Phool]

42. When are you getting your drug test?

Gibbs said we need one!

[Demeter]

43. When I get some drugs, I guess

Gibbs needs a gag.

[TalkingDog]

48. Did you say the White House was passing out free drugs for us to test?

Sign me up!

[Roland99]

52. Do we get to pick the drug we test?

[Po_d Mainiac]

50. More worried about recovery, Fed takes small steps

WASHINGTON (AP) -- More worried about the recovery, the Federal Reserve took a small step Tuesday to bolster the economy.
Small step taken because it's out of options. This is Bumhanky trying to blow out a tune as he trips along the edge of the graveyard

snip

In 2009 and early 2010, the Fed bought $1.25 trillion in mortgage securities, $175 billion in mortgage debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and $300 billion in government debt as part of two crisis-era programs.
And they will continue to take the same failed measures and expect a different outcome?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-takes-small-step-to-apf-2353655020.html;_ylt=AjVG8tz3RxuCSLIdLMok0_27YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE3MmdlZDd2BHBvcwMxBHNlYwNicmVha2luZ05ld3MEc2xrA2ZlZHRha2Vzc3RlcA--?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[ozone_man]

54. The definition of insanity.

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” - Albert Einstein

[Po_d Mainiac]

60. I'm not sure that the FOMC wants different results.

Therefore they are just plain criminals.

Don't give them the option of pleading insanity, as they are prodded along by the pitchforks towards the :FRSP:

[Demeter]

57. Behold! Another Miracle!

These "miracles" are just cheap tricks, but don't let the True Believers know!