AP-GfK Poll: Independent voters sour on Democrats

[OmahaBlueDog]

Source: AP (Via Yahoo)

WASHINGTON – Independents who embraced President Barack Obama's call for change in 2008 are ready for a shift again, and that's worrisome news for Democrats.

Only 32 percent of those citing no allegiance to either major party say they want Democrats to keep control of Congress in this November's elections, according to combined results of recent Associated Press-GfK polls. That's way down from the 52 percent of independents who backed Obama over Republican Sen. John McCain two years ago, and the 49 percent to 41 percent edge by which they preferred Democratic candidates for the House in that election, according to exit polls of voters.

Independents voice especially strong concerns about the economy, with 9 in 10 calling it a top problem and no other issue coming close, the analysis of the AP-GfK polls shows. While Democrats and Republicans rank the economy the No. 1 problem in similar numbers, they are nearly as worried about their No. 2 issues, health care for Democrats and terrorism for Republicans.

Ominously for Democrats, independents trust Republicans more on the economy by a modest but telling 42 percent to 36 percent. That's bad news for the party that controls the White House and Congress at a time of near 10 percent unemployment and the slow economic recovery.



Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100815/ap_on_el_ge/us_ap_poll_defecting_independents

[Xipe Totec]

1. The dorsal fin of American politics is flopping again nt

[still_one]

2. I don't know about this poll, but if they trust the repukes more on the economy they are idiots /nt

[tomhayes]

3. They aren't very bright, are they?

.

[TheEuclideanOne]

18. Yes, they actually are.

I hate to rain on the parade here, but the democratic party has sucked so bad on getting the message out. I would have loved to see the administration go nuclear on things like the Republicans filibustering everything. They stopped unemployment extensions, loans to small businesses and help to 911 heroes all within about a 2 week period, Obama should have made a national Presidential Speech really bringing all of that information into the open. And do it in prime time on ALL OF THE MAJOR NETWORKS!

If you don't think that our message is failing to get out there, ask some people how much they know about the number of filibusters in the last 2 years. You will be SHOCKED to see how few people are even aware that the Rethugs have fillibustered everything. Obama should educate the country in the speech about the history of the fillibuster. Think about it, the fillibuster everything strategy has been demonstrated time after time and still the only people that know about it are the idealogues.

[AlbertCat]

26. but the democratic party has sucked so bad on getting the message out.

Well, they have to work harder tenfold just to get on the tube! That combined with the notion Dems seem to have that they DON'T have to work harder tenfold means they can't get their message out. Though they are at fault, they are not entirely at fault.... by a huge margin.

[Hawkowl]

27. Obama can get on the "tube" at anytime

It was different when the rethugs had the presidency. Obama just doesn't like conflict. He'd rather get his ass kicked every which way to November than actually do something more than give a sternly written speech.

He can hold up projects and funding and appointments for any rethug he wants to make an example of. And he can double the pain on someone in his own party. He just chooses to be Barney the Dinosaur, pretending everyone loves everyone else and we all have just polite differences.

Obama will get his ass kicked by whomever is running against him in 2012. Especially when the rethuglican congress doubles down on their obstructionism for the big prize: another rethuglican President.

[TheEuclideanOne]

30. In my example about jobs

you can't really come up with a better example even if you wanted. The outcry for jobs and the economy is getting to a fevered pitch and the Rethugs are preventing anything from happening. MAKE IT KNOWN!!! It is clear that this will have a significant impact on the elections. No secret here.

It would be like Obama being the head of a starving village where a plentiful supply of food is at the borders and the criminals are stopping it from coming in. He would rather make most people think that there is no food, and that it is his fault that there is no food, than to call the criminals out that are causing people to starve.

[TheEuclideanOne]

28. Agreed

On all points

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TheEuclideanOne]

40. Yes, that is kinda my point

During the election, you knew the good, bad and ugly about each side because you had people telling you the good, bad and ugly about each candidate.....over and over and over again.

If we could get the message out a fraction of the way that the other side does, there is no denying what is in the best interest of the people voting. But we don't. You know who does? The other side and they do it damn well. Why can't we?!?!?!?

In short, it is not that we don't have a good message. We do? What does the other side have? ----- crickets -------, but if you ask the man on the street something even super obvious to anybody here at DU, like how many times has the Republican Party fillibustered, you will be sad to see that so few people even know that. Don't even try something more complex than that.

[tomhayes]

41. Because they repeat lies

It's easy to repeat a digestible lie - it's hard to explain how things work in the real world.

Real world things don't fit onto bumper stickers.

[TheEuclideanOne]

42. I totally agree

It is easier. If they tell a lie 100 times, we should tell the truth 200 times. While that may not even work, it would clearly work better than 10 times or telling it 0 times because we assume that people do not need convincing since it is the truth.

Who is our communcations chief? Who is the person responsible for getting the word out? I do not know. I do remember seeing the name of some female who I think holds that role and I only heard her name a while back because she failed at getting the message out about some incident that I can not even remember. The point in all of this is that it is WRONG that I don't even know what her name is. I would be much happier if I was sick of hearing from her.

In short, the Rethugs spreading lie after lie is nothing new at all. We should have some strategy for getting the message out and we don't.

[Arkana]

4. Independent voters are those people who walk outside during a rainstorm

with their heads tilted toward the sky and their mouths open.

[seattleblue]

21. And they put us in power in 2008. Were you mocking them then?

[Jakes Progress]

33. Why no. Then they were the sages of the age.

[Arkana]

58. Gee, that's funny, because you and yours do nothing but squawk

that it was YOU who put "us" in power. So which is it?

[RBInMaine]

57. It is all about the 9.5% unemployment rate. If it was 8.5% it would be a different story. But, the

way to sway many of them is with four messages: 1) The RePUKES are the party of NO. 2) The RePUKES are controlled by the TeaExtremists. 3) The RePUKES want to go back to Bush/Cheney policies.
4) The RePUKES are the party of Wall Street not Main Street. Say these things a thousand times, and you can sway back a lot of the I's. They shift with the wind over the economy, and they don't think enough about who is really to blame.

[BeyondGeography]

5. Terrorism ranks ahead of health care for Republicans?

Is that because of Obama's terrorist leanings?

[OmahaBlueDog]

12. No, that is their mindset

They love security. They value it over liberty.

[BeyondGeography]

14. Paranoia might explain it as well n/t

[No Elephants]

52. No. Follow the money. Blackwater, Halliburton, Bechtel, etc. Not run by Democratic donors.

However, they will sell it to their self-defeating poorer voters any which way. Used to be Democrats "soft on Communism" and "weak on defense." Now, it's "paling around with terrorists."

[karynnj]

6. Buried in the story is that even this poll, more want the Democrats in charge than the Republicans

"The AP-GfK polls show a narrow 44 percent to 41 percent overall preference for a Democratic Congress. The party is holding its 2008 edge among women and urban residents, and still splitting the vote of pivotal suburbanites and people earning $50,000 to $100,000."
Note that there are 15% who did not prefer one party to be in charge versus the other.

I think the reason there the Republicans are doing well with the Independents is because in 2005 - 2008, there are likely many erstwhile Republicans who rejected the party. In addition, there are likely many former Republicans, who have in the last year rejected the party and identify just as conservative or even tea party.

This is better than many similar polls earlier this month that were showing a slight Republican preference. The tide may be turning - on the republicans. It would be cool if they peaked to soon - in July, rather than November.

[OmahaBlueDog]

10. I think the Tea Bagger movement has fallen off from where it was in Spring

..whether they have peaked, or are pausing before a second breaking of wind -- I just don't know.

[krabigirl]

44. well, being co-opted by people like Palin early on probably killed it for many.

[SoapBox]

7. Where is the specifics of the poll data?

...I don't see anything new on the "AP-Gfk" website.

I've looked at polling data from this site before...It's EVER so interesting
when you get into the details of who was polled.

Almost every poll I looked at, those that got polled were in the high percentage numbers, white.

Where are the minorities in these polls?

And, they combined all those polls together? Over time?

"The data from the AP-GfK polls combines surveys conducted June 9-14, May 7-11 and April 7-12 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media. A total of 3,047 randomly chosen adults were interviewed by cell and landline telephone. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points."

I don't trust their polling at all.

[OmahaBlueDog]

8. I've heard others question GfK methodology.

However, I simply posted the article as it appeared. If I find more data, I will let you know.

You might also want to ask DU user Grantcart, as he is really good with quantitative political science.

[MikeW]

9. wow sad posts on DU but not surprising

But of course .. ANYONE who disagrees is automatically labeled

idiot
dumb
stupid
.....

[Demeter]

11. Yeah, well, they aren't the only ones

and they are perfectly justified to feel betrayed and duped and played. Because they were. We ALL were. And the beatings will continue until morale improves.

[savalez]

13. Vote republican. See how that works out for you.

My guess is "not very well'.

All these polls and the MSM actually had me thinking the 2008 elections were close too.

IMO http://www.fivethirtyeight.com was the closest I found to being a believable source for forecasting elections. They use their own algorithm on multiple polls.

[defendandprotect]

22. Attacking "independents" isn't going to work for us, either -- honest campaigning will --

but Democrats have been restrained from populist campaigns by the DLC corporate wing --

We only need HALF of the independents -- but Democratic Party hasn't responded, prefering

to follow a DLC-corporatist losing streak --

[Iowa]

46. Yep. You nailed it.

[NorthCarolina]

15. Could it be that the "Independents" so often talked about by the media

are actually "soured" by a failure of the administration to make progress towards causes more often attributed to that of the "fringe left"? Things like a failure to enact a public option, or failure to punish Bush administration war crimes, or possibly a failure to put an effective end to too big to fail. Maybe they are upset over the escalation of the war in Afghanistan, or possibly the yet unrealized end to discriminatory DADT. Perhaps these "independents" are turned away by the sanctioning of Government "hit lists" against American citizens, or even something as mundane as creating a Debt Commission stacked with anti-entitlement conservatives to look into "fixing" Social Security and Medicare. Nah, I guess it couldn't possibly be any of that...hell only a little over 70% of the public even wanted single payer or a public option...hardly a majority by conservative standards for legislation or programs that they oppose. Yes, the media must be right...they are simply unhappy with the over abundant goodness of the DLC led Democratic Party, and seek a GOP alternative. That has to be it.

[savalez]

16. Do you really think all those are "Independant voter" issues?

[NorthCarolina]

17. Well

I know that over 70% of the general public desired single payer OR at least a public option. Of that percentage, do you think it is a safe bet that some of them, if not a good many of them, would be Independent voters?

[Zhade]

19. They are to me.

Of course, I'll never vote for a Republican -- but then, I won't ever vote for a rightwinger, even if they have a D after their name.

[Iowa]

47. Same for me.

[defendandprotect]

23. Economy, jobs, safety nets -- populist issues the DLC corporate wing doesn't want discussed....

[NorthCarolina]

25. Yes, better to scare you with the

Independent voters are turning to the GOP, rather than to publicly admit that it is Democrats disenfranchised with the conservative tack the DLC New Dems have steered the party towards. These voters won't support the GOP, but I believe that they have also made a choice to no longer support DLC New Dems and Blue Dogs for the same reasons...and that is what has DC, and the media, in a tizzy. How to paint this occurrence, when admission of the truth would be the most damaging to the pro-corporate agenda.

[glitch]

32. Agreed. Nicely done. nt

[defendandprotect]

43. There was a HUGE turn out for Obama ... better to ask Dems why they've lost them..!!

In fact, I've read opinions that the vote was so huge that Dems should have had

something like 24 more more Congressional reps!!

[Hansel]

38. Independents are not a monolithic group.

Some lean left and feel disenfranchised by Democrats and some lean right and feel the same way about Republicans.

The media is clueless and think all independents are the same as the people they interview just before the elections who are so politically "thoughtful" that they can't decide between two polar opposite candidates. Actually they are people who are uninformed and clueless, who lack real conviction, who just can't make a decision, or people who like attention. I can't think of a group of voters I'm more unimpressed with than these media's darlings.

Independents are not the same as centrists like the media likes to pretend they are.

[defendandprotect]

45. 76%+ of Americans wanted single payer/government run health care -- that's one issue!!

MEDICARE FOR ALL was fully supported by the public -- overwhelmingly --

in fact, the numbers were still growing at the time of the vote for "deform."

[defendandprotect]

20. These are people who in the main respond to populist campaigning ....

which the DLC corporate wing has long discouraged --

If half of the independents unite with liberals/progressives, it's a huge

voting bloc --

[Dr.Phool]

24. Vote for change, get the same old shit.

What an electoral strategy.

Americans voted for major structural changes in 2008. They got cosmetics.

Sure Republicans are assholes and fascists. Why do we try to appease them? Oh, right. We need 93 votes for a majority. And then we still have to win over two Republicans.

[AlbertCat]

29. We need 93 votes for a majority.

I wonder if any Dems will campaign on the fact that they can actually change the Senate rules and the filibuster so as to get something done... if they remain a majority.

[cosmicone]

31. Their memory retention ability

is only slightly higher than that of an average dragonfly.

[OmahaBlueDog]

36. The public has always had a short memory

..and it's made shorter when unemployment is up around 10%.

To me, thet's the bottom line here. Not public option. Not a corporatist agenda. Unemployent is high, people are still getting foreclosed, and housing prices are still in the toilet. Great - the stimulus package helped us not fall over the cliff, but what have you done for me lately?

[Hansel]

39. If they paid attention they would vote every Republican out then.

Because it is they who have stood in the way of every attempt to improve the economy. They have filibustered almost every piece of legislation put forward but only after watering it down to milquetoast.

So it isn't just a short memory, it's being uninformed or completely ignorant about how the process works and therefore, uninformed about how we ended up with far weaker legislation than we needed.

This is anomaly. There has never been a congress where so much legislation was filibuster solidly by the opposition party. It's a disgusting phenomenon that is ignored by the media, by the opposition and the critics on the left. Instead of blasting that message home to uninformed voters, too many supposed informed "true" progressives are busy exclusively blaming the Democrats.

[cosmicone]

50. Yes, but democrats have been too spineless and castrated to

use that message boldly to their advantage.

"Hey ... we worked hard to increase employment but we were stopped at every stage and every attempt."

The congress critters are more interested in getting invited to christmas parties than the people whom they serve.

Obama is trying to capture the center but in doing so, he comes across as weak and wishy-washy to the very people he is trying to woo.

[Jakes Progress]

35. Gotta carry through.

As mentioned in posts above the Democrats and the Administration have done an amateurish job of communicating. They seemed to think that they won and that was it.

The other problem is in undelivered change. We wasted the first year and a half trying to make nicey nice with the very people that we said we wanted to be a change from. We courted republican favor and blew the best chance for the very change that those independents wanted that we will get for years.

If this administration has any desire at all to serve two terms, it will need to reinvent itself as the party of the people and the enemy of republican corporatism very quickly. For a year and a half the answer to those who wanted change was always that we had only been in office a month, three months, a year. Now it may be too late. A shame and the people's great opportunity wasted.

[OmahaBlueDog]

37. There are a lot of good points you make

<<Democrats and the Administration have done an amateurish job of communicating>>

Gibbs is a symtom, not the illness. Yes, they have web outlets, and Facebook, and Twitter, But they on't have the ability to make policy simple and easy to understand. As I said in a post about a week ago, the Administration needs to find a progressive version of Tony Snow. Gaffe-proof, great on camera, and uber-media savvy.

<<We wasted the first year and a half trying to make nicey nice with the very people that we said we wanted to be a change from>>

The President came from the Senate, and had a lot of friends on the other side of the aisle. That's the way the Senate is - yell, scream, call names, have lunch, play golf. I really think he believed he could still work with his former Republican friends in the WH. It hasn't worked out that way. Bush came into the WH with a minority of the popular vote, and acted aas if he'd been given a fifty state mandate. Try that approach. It's also time for a new COS, and I'd recommend Howard Dean.

<<it will need to reinvent itself as the party of the people and the enemy of republican corporatism very quickly.>>

There's truth there, and yet I don't even think it's THAT complicated. What they really need is clearer communication. They need to do a better job of letting 98% of the people know that a wealthy 2% are out to screw you. They need to do a better job of telling hispanic Americans that so-called immigration reform = legally harrassing you because of your surname or skin color.

Another part is that the Pres has done some good work in the first year and a half, but it may take another year or so for effects to be felt.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

54. Worth repeating for a third time:

"We wasted the first year and a half trying to make nicey nice with the very people that we said we wanted to be a change from."

[craigmatic]

48. It's important to keep in mind that alot of these so-called independents were actually repubs

who were disgusted with bush and changed their voting discription. So really it's about 26% real independents and 26% of these repubs who are against Obama.

[defendandprotect]

51. The huge Obama vote was about Independents moving to the left ....

and large numbers of Democrats who have dropped out of voting, once again coming

out to vote for Democradts -- and it was all based on the populist campaigning

Democrats were doing. Wasn't enough of it, but sufficient to bring out voters again.

It is the lack of this populist campaigning which keeps voters home.


The Question is for Obama/Rahma/Gibbs to answer WHY and HOW they lost that huge

LIBERAL/PROGRESSIVE vote -- ????

[24601]

49. F%@kin independent morans [sic] should be drug-tested. Who

possibly could find Nancy & Harry not just the sweetest things in politics today? Let's berate & denigrate them loudly and publicly until they come around!

[Lilith Velkor]

56. LOL

:thumbsup:

[24601]

59. Starbuck on your avatar? Make that "Fracking Independents" n/t

[No Elephants]

53. It's AP, ffs--and too early to be meaningful, anyway.

Republicans hope polls and their framing of them become self-fulfilling prophesies.

If Republicans were putting forth anything besides tax cuts and other laws favoring for the rich, I might be a lot more worried.

However, if Democrats in D.C. had been acting more like Democrats and/or they were better at messaging, I'd be a lot more confident.

[wordpix]

55. they soured on repukes, were willing to go dem but the more dems acquiesce

to repukes, the more the indies get sour.