STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday August 20

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday August 20, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 19, 2010

Dow... 10,271.21 -144.33 (-1.39%)
Nasdaq... 2,178.95 -36.75 (-1.66%)
S&P 500... 1,075.63 -18.53 (-1.69%)
Gold future... 1,234 -1.20 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.58 +0.01 (+0.27%)
30-Year Bond 3.66 +0.01 (+0.25%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Oil wallows below $75 in Asia on dim economic news

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices wallowed below $75 a barrel Friday in Asia as a spate of weak figures on the U.S. economy added to expectations that demand for crude will weaken.

Crude prices have retreated nearly 8 percent in the past two weeks amid evidence of slowing economic growth. Prices rebounded Tuesday but the rally was short-lived after a
U.S. report showed crude inventories fell less than expected last week as demand remained sluggish.

Adding to the gloom, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday that jobless benefit claims rose last week while the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia said manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region dropped during August.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, natural gas for September delivery fell 0.3 cent to $4.168 per 1,000 cubic feet while heating oil was up 0.67 cent at $2.007 a gallon and gasoline rose 0.52 cent to $1.934 a gallon.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Po_d Mainiac]

26. US military fuel spending and consumption

Dated a couple of years ago, but since crude prices are about the same, the figures are most likely applicatable today

All the U.S. tanks, planes and ships guzzle 340,000 barrels of oil a day, making the American military the single-largest purchaser and consumer of oil in the world.

If the Defense Department were a country, it would rank about 38th in the world for oil consumption, right behind the Philippines.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=16281892


U.S. MILITARY FUEL SPENDING:
2003: $ 5.21 billion
2007: $12.61 billion
Percentage increase: 142 percent

U.S MILITARY FUEL CONSUMPTION
2003: 145.1 million barrels
(397,500 barrels per day)
2007: 132.5 million barrels
(363,000 barrels per day)
Percentage change: -9.5 percent

2007 U.S. MILITARY FUEL CONSUMPTION EQUALS:+
- 90 percent more than Ireland's annual consumption
- 38 percent more than Israel's annual consumption
- 20 times Iceland's annual consumption
- 1.7 percent of U.S. annual consumption

AVERAGE ESTIMATED CRUDE OIL PRICE PER BARREL:
2003: $32.50
2007: $72.50

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N20416568.htm

One can only wonder "What if?"

[ozymandius]

3. Fidelity: retirement fund withdrawals rise in downturn

BOSTON (Reuters) – A record number of U.S. workers are tapping into their retirement accounts to make it through the economic downturn, Fidelity Investments found in a survey released on Friday.

Among the 11 million workers whose 401(k) plans are run by Fidelity, 11 percent took out a loan from their plan during the 12 months ended June 30, the company said, up
from 9 percent at the same point a year earlier.

By the end of the second quarter, plan participants with loans outstanding against their 401(k) accounts had reached 22 percent versus 20 percent a year earlier.

Fidelity found signs of continued thrift in the workforce. The average percentage of salary saved in a 401(k) held steady at 8 percent, similar to the rate in the first quarter, while 32 percent saved 10 percent or more of their pay.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100820/bs_nm/us_retirement_fidelity

[ozymandius]

4. Spike in layoffs feeds fear of faltering recovery

WASHINGTON – Layoffs are back, and that's bad news for the fragile economic recovery.

New applications for unemployment benefits hit a nine-month high last week — a spike that suggests private employers may shed jobs this month for the first time this year.

Workers are losing construction jobs in Georgia and manufacturing jobs in Indiana. Some of the layoffs are coming as stimulus money dries up and public works projects come to a halt. Government employees are being let go, too, as states and cities grapple with budget crises.

Without more jobs, consumers will not feel secure enough to spend much money, further slowing the economy. The grim outlook has economists lowering their estimates for growth in the second half of the year. And on Thursday it led to a sell-off on Wall Street led by investors worried that the United States could tumble back into recession.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100820/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

---

I personally know more people now than in any point in my life who are either unemployed or underemployed. These are adults who are educated and in their prime working years between the 35-50 age range.

[ozymandius]

5. More tough economic times forecast by CBO

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy faces difficult times ahead with chronic unemployment and slow manufacturing hurting the pace of recovery, the head of Congress' budget agency said on Thursday.

The CBO forecast the U.S. budget deficit will hit $1.342 trillion this year, down slightly from its March projection of $1.368 trillion.

The CBO forecast was released as reports showed new claims for unemployment benefits rising, raising fresh fears of a return to recession, and manufacturing activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly contracting. The data unnerved investors, driving stocks down and prices on U.S. government debt higher while yields fell.

Members of Congress will rely on the CBO numbers as they decide how to tackle the yawning budget gap. One of the top questions facing Democrats, who hold majority control of Congress, will be the fate of the Bush administration's tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of this year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100819/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_cbo

[ozymandius]

6. Economic numbers point to darker outlook

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The frail U.S. economy received fresh setbacks as new U.S. jobless claims scaled a nine-month high last week and Mid-Atlantic manufacturing shrank in August for the first time in more than a year.

Other data released on Thursday, including a lackluster gain in a gauge of future activity last month, also implied that expansion had lost momentum after a brisk first quarter, though economists cautioned against interpreting the reports as signs of an impending double-dip recession.

Separately, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index dropped to minus 7.7, the lowest since July 2009, as new orders and shipments fell and the employment situation deteriorated.

The latest data, including a third report showing the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1 percent in July after dropping 0.3 percent in June, reinforced signs of sluggish third-quarter growth.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100819/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_jobless

[rfranklin]

14. That chart sure looks like it is breaking down...

Of course, I've thrown away so much money on my analysis of charts that you would be rich if you had used me as a contrary indicator.

[Demeter]

15. Too Bad We Cannot Introduce Them to the President

Perhaps a little contact with reality would do them all good.

[ozymandius]

7. European Stocks Drop as Carmakers Offset Dana Petroleum Rally

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell to their lowest level in a month as a retreat in auto and construction-related companies offset takeover activity in the energy industry. U.S. futures and Asian shares also fell.

Valeo SA and Porsche SE retreated more than 2 percent, leading the biggest drop among the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s 19 industry groups. Holcim Ltd. fell for a second day as analysts cut their price estimates on the cement maker. Dana Petroleum Plc jumped more than 5 percent after Korea National Oil Corp. made a $2.9 billion hostile takeover bid for the U.K. explorer.

The benchmark Stoxx 600 fell 0.6 percent to 252.35 at 9:57 a.m. in London, extending yesterday’s 1.4 percent selloff. The gauge, which is unchanged for the year, is on track for a second straight weekly decline amid concern the economic recovery may be flagging.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKdc1x2g44OU&pos=4

[ozymandius]

9. Korea's KNOC makes £1.87bn hostile bid for UK oil explorer Dana Petroleum

The Korea National Oil Corporation announced the £18-a-share cash offer on Friday, taking it straight to shareholders after Dana's board rejected an approach at this level last week.

KNOC said it had the support of investors which an interest in 48.6pc of the shares, including holders of 21.2pc of the equity and a further 27.4pc held by hedge funds with CFDs (contracts for difference).

The London-listed oil company's share rose to £17.90 in early trading on Friday.

The £18-a-share offer is a near 60pc premium to the Dana share price when the approach was first revealed in early July.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7955593/Koreas-KNOC-makes-1.87bn-hostile-bid-for-UK-oil-explorer-Dana-Petroleum.html

[ozymandius]

8. Stocks set for lower start

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were set for a lower start Friday, as investors continued to fret about the economy.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were slightly lower. Futures, which measure current index values against perceived future performance, were higher earlier in the morning.

Economy: Investors will be watching a reading on state unemployment. It comes a day after a report showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance unexpectedly surged last week.

Asian markets ended the session in negative territory. Japan's Nikkei led declines in the region, sinking nearly 2%. The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.7% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.4%.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/20/markets/premarkets/index.htm

[Demeter]

16. Fret? FRET!!!

I'm gonna do a Tansy all over that website.

[Tansy_Gold]

25. I wrote a big long post last night about the potential

repercussions of a market "crash" and then DU ate it. I'll try to reconstruct as much as I can --

We've got two circumstances --

1. The Market and The Economy are so intertwined that if one fails the other fails.

2. The Market is so removed from the The Economy that the success or failure of one has little effect on the other.


DRDU posted yesterday to the effect that even those of us who are not directly invested in The Market would feel the effects of a true Crash in many of the everyday things we do and pretty much take for granted. While I think that may be true in some respects, I also think it's a somewhat internalized fear that TPTB have foisted on us.

The Market has been remarkably successful since Obama took office, regaining much of what it had lost during the booooosh years. Banks and other financials are raking in record profits. Health Care Reform was a major handout to the insurance companies. The war in Iraq has wound down while the one in Afghanistan has ramped up. Neither of them is accomplishing anything except to kill a lot of people and funnel more and more tax money to the defense contractors. So The Market has remained healthy and maybe even gotten healthier while The Economy has gotten sicker.

This suggests to me that we're in much more circumstance #2 than in #1. That means, The Market could crash and burn and really have little effect on The Economy.

Furthermore, I believe TPTB have reversed the order of things by making The Market the cause and The Economy the effect, reinforcing the notion that The Market is the leading indicator, so to speak, of The Economy's health. In times past, it was the other way around, where success of the companies represented in The Market affected prices, but because the separation of the two has been essential to the financial pillage of the elites, they have had to instill in the 97%ers (us workin' folks) that it's The Market that drives The Economy.

They've done this by sucking wealth out of The Economy in order to prop up The Market even while they decouple them. Eventually, they will have sucked ALL the wealth out, and they can then allow The Economy to unexpectedly collapse.

Personally, I think the fundamentals still apply. Had The Market remained connected to The Economy, a crash of The Market would have meant The Economy had already crashed. What we've seen, however, is that The Economy is in a state of collapse while The Market serges. The disconnect is obvious.

In the event of a Market crash, I do believe the government would step in and maintain order. Banks would function, debit cards would still access funds, retailers would still operate. The essentials -- gasoline and disposable diapers -- would remain in plentiful supply and be accessible. Public utilities would continue to operate, perhaps with interruptions, but life would go on. Because these things are not connected as directly to The Market as they used to be.

Credit would be gone, and both individuals and businesses that can't survive on cash flow will collapse, which is what they should have done long ago. Large retailers that depend on high volume sales may be severely impacted as individuals cut back on fluff and stick with necessities. The Economy, already ill, will sicken further for a while, but it will not die.

The Market, on the other hand, will have a difficult time surviving in anything resembling its present form.

Those groups -- retirees depending on pensions from funds invested in The Market -- who are indirectly invested will be hit very hard, and the decrease in their spending power will contribute to the slow down in The Economy. But after reaching bottom -- which could take several years -- I think The Economy will rebound, and The Market will not.

Will we have interruptions in "vital" services like the Internet, water, electricity? Probably. There will probably be shortages of gasoline, too. It may even reach the point that, like the old USSR, the USA breaks up into various sovereign nations based on regional economies. Provincialism? :shrug: maybe. But also maybe healthier and more viable than the disaster we've got now.

The only way I see out of it is strong leadership within the government and we don't have any of that, save maybe Al Franken, Anthony Weiner, Alan Grayson, and half a dozen others. The rest, including the top, are bought and paid for spineless wimps who don't have a clue.

Otherwise, we are on our way to the Bastille.



Tansy Gold, NTY

[Roland99]

30. I believe we're in #2, as well. (In both meanings of that phrase...heh)

As you said, it used to be that the market reflected the economy. That was true when people actually bought and sold shares or companies would sometimes do stock buybacks or even the early investment firms buying larger chunks of stocks if a company was a good performer.

What we have now, is pure unadulterated manipulation. HFTs peeking at incoming orders and buying or selling ahead of those in order to profit from the effect of those incoming transactions. The gains are going to the big power players, not smaller fund managers and certainly not to the person on the street with their $5,000 etrade starter account buying some Google or GE or something. That person may manage to make a decent nest egg for themselves but it will take a couple of decades.

And these big power players are using what is now a 90-day window from the Fed to grab practically free money with which to play these games before they have to pay it back. Talk about the house always wins!!

[Demeter]

35. Or Maybe, Tansy Gold--Our Candidate for 2012

Thanks. I have been wondering the same thing.

We could live without the banks and even most of the big corporations (aside from those that provide real, irreplaceable goods--like true healthcare: real drugs, electronics, renewable energy capital goods. Detroit is in the process of proving this--most of Michigan, really. And new corporations, with suitable leashes, can be formed. By recycling and sharing what we have, this nation could probably stagger on for a few years, and get a new domestic economy organized and running.

The collapse of the Markets will also return the states and the federal governments to their rightful leadership and regulatory duties. As long as good people run for office, that is.

[Po_d Mainiac]

42. Don't blame DRDU for something I started

:hi:

[Tansy_Gold]

46. Oh, no, I'm not blaming anyone

:hi:

it just happened that I was responding to her post about how everyone is really, in one way or another, connected to The Market.

And I was agreeing, but only to the point that we've kind of got a tail wagging the dog situation. Until we get the dog back in charge of things, it could be a bit rough.

[Po_d Mainiac]

53. This tag?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=102&topic_id=4509498&mesg_id=4510817

[Tansy_Gold]

67. Well, DUH -- Boy I messed that one up good! :rofl:

So it really IS your fault!

:rofl: :rofl:


That'll teach me to post in the morning about what I did the previous night without looking back to see what the eaten post was referencing!

My sincere apologies for depriving you of full and deserved credit! :yourock:


But what I wrote this morning, regardless which individual prompted it, still stands. Yes, I think there are many parts of the infrastructure that we rely on, and maybe there would be enough of a government (local, state, federal) left to keep that much of it operating. In that respect I think the US might survive a market meltdown much better than the USSR, because in their case it was the economy that collapsed and brought the government down.

We do have reserves, even those of us who don't have a lot in the bank. We have a huge surplus of consumer goods -- take a look at any thrift store/yard sale/your own closet/basement/attic -- that would see us through tough times. Most of those consumer goods are made offshore, so the inventory would allow us, if we wanted to, breathing room to re-establish domestic industries. We physically have sufficient housing, even if much of it is in foreclosure; the collapse of the Market might put CDOs and MBSes in limbo and free up real housing for real people.

Would a cataclysmic collapse of The Market mean TEOTWAWKI? For the top 3%, it might, but I think the general population would for the most part come through in good shape. not immediately and not without some serious hardship and struggle for some, but the viability of The Economy I think is the fundamental strength, and that's why I have quite honestly looked forward to a full market collapse. I think it's the only thing that's going to save us all in the long run. Short run, maybe not so much, but long run we're doomed without it.

Again, my apologies, Po'd. :facepalm: :cheeksmack:


Tansy Gold

[florida08]

52. morning Tansy

I would definately agree that the disconnect between he market and the real economy is obvious. Main street is drowning while Wall Street is thriving. The problem I see is that now 63% of our GDP is held by 6 banksters. Used to be 17%. That means our pensions, 401K's and Roth IRA's, money markets, mortgages,deposits,savings etc as they are all connected now.

Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo — held 32 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions. As of June 30th, it was 39 percent.

Simon Johnson writes:

The big four have half of the market for mortgages and two-thirds of the market for credit cards. Five banks have over 95 percent of the market for over-the-counter derivatives. Three U.S. banks have over 40 percent of the global market for stock underwriting. http://marketwatch666.blogspot.com/2010/03/big-banks-once-totaled-17-of-gdp-by.html

This suggests their very size makes us their employee. We have a money market we've been building on for 20 years. Our life savings.
The fraudulent derivatives put money markets in critical danger although ours is not that big and would have been cover by FDIC. Fractional banking requires banks to only keep 10% of deposits on reserve. They didn't reinstate Glass Steagall. The list of smaller failed banks is pretty long and still going branches included. The pace is growing and has passed 2009. I definately feel we are at the mercy of Wall Street in their debt creation. Profits only ascend but debt is for everyone. I would add that as #3. We don't need Wall Street but they sure need us. I still remember how indignant they got when Congress first refused to help them. So why did Congress not separate us from them?

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/investing/bank-failures-2010-pass-100/19567041/
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

[Demeter]

55. We Are Like An Iceland With Nuclear Weaponry

and too few Hot Springs.

[florida08]

58. yes indeed

with hawks getting ansy for more war. What's the countdown now for Israel to attack Iran? 3 days? Really getting tired of that battlecry.

Bolton is also no doubt busy writing his speech for the big 9-11 Stop the Islamization of America rally, which will also feature that man of peace Geert Wilders

http://sioaonline.com/?p=452

[TheWatcher]

28. You have to learn the 10 Buzzwords of Fascism

"Fret"
"Jitters"
"Unexpected"
"Robust"
"Uncertain"
"Faltering"
"Hopes"
"Profit Taking"
"Money On The Sidelines"
"Recovery"

Now you too can live in the False Paradigm Of Happy. :)

[Dr.Phool]

31. You forgot "change".

[Tansy_Gold]

33. And "hope."

[Demeter]

36. And "Unexpected"!

[Capn Sunshine]

69. And terminally cynical

You know, you keep making that face, it will stick like that

[Roland99]

23. Futures following in yesterday's footsteps

S&P 500 1,065 -5.90 -0.55%
DOW 10,195 -40.00 -0.39%
NASDAQ 1,815 -5.50 -0.30%

at least for now. Wouldn't be surprised to see some "bargain buying" not long after open.

[Demeter]

39. No Bargains There

by any rational definition. How many greater fools can there be in this world? And where did they get their money?

[ozymandius]

10. Needed: a new economic paradigm by Joseph Stiglitz

The blame game continues over who is responsible for the worst recession since the Great Depression – the financiers who did such a bad job of managing risk or the regulators who failed to stop them. But the economics profession bears more than a little culpability. It provided the models that gave comfort to regulators that markets could be self-regulated; that they were efficient and self-correcting. The efficient markets hypothesis – the notion that market prices fully revealed all the relevant information – ruled the day. Today, not only is our economy in a shambles but so too is the economic paradigm that predominated in the years before the crisis – or at least it should be.

Bad models lead to bad policy: central banks, for instance, focused on the small economic inefficiencies arising from inflation, to the exclusion of the far, far greater inefficiencies arising from dysfunctional financial markets and asset price bubbles. After all, their models said that financial markets were always efficient. Remarkably, standard macroeconomic models did not even incorporate adequate analyses of banks. No wonder former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, in his famous mea culpa, could express his surprise that banks did not do a better job at risk management. The real surprise was his surprise: even a cursory look at the perverse incentives confronting banks and their managers would have predicted short-sighted behaviour with excessive risk-taking.

Changing paradigms is not easy. Too many have invested too much in the wrong models. Like the Ptolemaic attempts to preserve earth-centric views of the universe, there will be heroic efforts to add complexities and refinements to the standard paradigm. The resulting models will be an improvement and policies based on them may do better, but they too are likely to fail. Nothing less than a paradigm shift will do.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d5108f90-abc2-11df-9f02-00144feabdc0.html

[Demeter]

17. This Is the Crux--and It's Not Just the Economists, Regulators and Banksters

It's also the politicians and the corporations who bought them. They are all going to have to change their minds about how they live and conduct their financial affairs.

Or we are going to have to change their minds for them, and it won't be pretty.

Change is inevitable. What cannot continue...

[DemReadingDU]

21. Stein's Law

"If something cannot go on forever, it will stop"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Stein



My opinion is that they are not going to change on their own. Change will come when the global financial Ponzi implodes.

[Demeter]

22. Unfortunate, I Agree

They will have to be made to change. I hope that it doesn't come to FRSP, but if it does, it won't be for lack of warning.

We can learn a lot from Venezuela's Chavez and Iceland's Althing.

[ozymandius]

11. European Bond Spreads: Rising Again

From the Atlanta Fed:

Peripheral European bond spreads over German bonds remain volatile and elevated.

Since August 9, the 10-year Greece-to-German bond spread has risen 93 basis points (bps) through August 17. Likewise, Portugal’s bond spreads rose 32 bps, Italy’s rose 16 bps, Spain’s rose 21 bps, and Ireland’s rose 42 bps during the same period.

As of today, the Greece-to-German spread has widened to 834 bps (peaked at 963 bps in May) and the Ireland-to-German spread has increased to 293 bps (peaked at 306 bps in May).

The spreads are below the peak of the crisis in May, but above the level when the stress test results were released.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/european-bond-spreads-rising-again.html

[ozymandius]

12. G'morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I have an extra-early start to the day. I'll check back later. :hi:

[Festivito]

13. Debt: 08/18/2010 13,353,801,011,553.95 (DOWN 10,938,849,786.58) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Back to the children's hospital to find just how clean it is.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,825,609,393,931.48 + 4,528,191,617,622.47
UP 214,319,067.84 + DOWN 11,153,168,854.42

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.79 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,905,716 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,089.88.
A family of three owes $129,269.65. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,745,719,045.97.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,796,575,236.77.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,451,432,033.43.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 221 reports in 322 days of FY2010 averaging 6.53B$ per report, 4.48B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 886 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/18/2010 13,353,801,011,553.95 BHO (UP 2,726,923,962,640.87 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,443,972,008,042.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,636,800,568,122.37 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********

127,241,369,181.62 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4509498&mesg_id=4509567

[Festivito]

70. Debt: 08/19/2010 13,363,227,573,941.68 (UP 9,426,562,387.73) (Thu)

(Up some. Good day.)
Was late all day, but did celebrate Christmas.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,833,840,421,104.71 + 4,529,387,152,836.97
UP 8,231,027,173.23 + UP 1,195,535,214.50

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.72 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,912,362 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,119.38.
A family of three owes $129,358.13. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,013,905,483.87.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,011,124,387.10.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,881,733,277.84.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 222 reports in 323 days of FY2010 averaging 6.55B$ per report, 4.50B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 885 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/19/2010 13,363,227,573,941.68 BHO (UP 2,736,350,525,028.60 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,453,398,570,429.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,642,385,381,445.55 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********

131,719,677,823.70 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4511225&mesg_id=4511257

[Demeter]

18. Mercury Is Retrograde for the Next 3 Weeks, Folks

Expect frustration and delay.

[OnlinePoker]

19. So, has it been retrograde for the last 10 years?

That's all I've seen is frustration and delay.

[Demeter]

20. No, That Would Be Some Planet Further From the Sun

Pluto, probably...and/or Saturn. Their influences last for years.

[Demeter]

24. Uranus just went retro last week

http://www.examiner.com/ny-in-new-york/uranus-the-maverick-planet-goes-retrograde-on-august-14th

http://www.astrologycom.com/retro.html

[Dr.Phool]

29. Mine didn't.

[Roland99]

32. I knew *someone* would be all over that!

:)

[Dr.Phool]

34. What?

[Tansy_Gold]

37. Cozy spots

We had a cat many years ago whose favorite nap spot was the bathroom sink, all curled up with his head upside down.


Biscuit prefers "cozy" spots, like underneath the waterbed headboard



or in the little corner next to the bookcase. Places none of the other dogs ever go.

[Demeter]

41. Why Don't You All Get Some Normal Pets?

Cats that sleep in warm laundry baskets, for example.

[Tansy_Gold]

47. 'Cause there's no such thing. Duh.

[Roland99]

40. cat's not named Erma Bombeck, is it?

:)

[TalkingDog]

44. Ya know, I could probably sell a line of kitten bowls.

They seem to like those over just about any bed. I think it's the central location and high visibility.

[Po_d Mainiac]

27. u didn't get the memo...Pluto has been down graded from planet status n/t

[TalkingDog]

43. And confused and awkward communication.....

I used to have a friend that would forget to tell me something or misspeak and she would always say: Mercury must be in retrograde.

[Roland99]

38. 10am - slippin' and a fallin'

like I almost did on the laundry room floor as I headed out to work this morning. A brand new jug of detergent slid off the top of the dryer (where my girlfriend had apparently precariously perched it) and it cracked enough to leak 90% of its contents all over the floor, including under the dryer and soaking into the pad under the washing machine. "I'd stay and help, hun, but, um, I'm already late for work!" :evilgrin:

Dow 10,201 -71 -0.69%
Nasdaq 2,175 -4 -0.18%
S&P 500 1,070 -6 -0.53%
GlobalDow 1,814 -18 -1.00%
Gold 1,225 -11 -0.88%
Oil 73.91 -0.86 -1.15%
Euro /$1US 1.2676 -0.0143
$1US / Yen 85.5600 0.3000
Pound / $1US 1.5504 -0.0091
Aud / $1US 0.8866 -0.0046
10yr T-note 2.57 0.00
2yr T-note 0.48 -0.01

1 Month LIBOR Rate 0.27 0.33 0.27 (this week) (month ago) (year ago)
3 Month LIBOR Rate 0.35 0.51 0.43
6 Month LIBOR Rate 0.58 0.71 0.83

[TalkingDog]

45. Today's theme song: Suitably it's a blues number.

Goin' Down Slow (Lightning Hopkins Version)
written by St. Louis Jimmy Oden, originally released in 1941.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQQ4YTL1P1A

I have had my fun
if I never get well no more
I have had my fun
if I never get well no more
Whoa, my health is fadin`
Oh yeah, I`m goin` down slow.

Please write my mama
Tell her the shape I`m in
Please write my mama
Tell her the shape I`m in
Tell her pray for me
Forgive me for my sins

On the next train south,
Look for my clothes back home.
On the next train south,
Look for my clothes back home.
'Cause all of my health is failing;
Lord, I'm going down slow,
I'm going down slow.

All of my health is failing;
Lord, I'm going down slow,
I'm going down slow.

Feel like I'm going, like I'm going down slow.
I feel like I'm going, like I'm going down slow.
I feel like I'm going, like I'm going down slow.
I feel like I'm going, like I'm going down slow.
I feel like I'm going, like I'm going down slow.

[Roland99]

48. +1

[Roland99]

49. Fannie-Freddie reform holds implications for rental housing

Fannie-Freddie reform holds implications for rental housing
Restructuring market for secondary mortgages may curb affordable rental units

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-reform-carries-rental-implications-2010-08-20

But Michael Stegman, director of policy and housing at the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation in Chicago, points out that a substantial segment of rental housing, known as multi-family homes, are held in portfolio by Fannie and Freddie.

Because these mortgages aren't standardized, they are difficult to package and sell into the secondary market.

Stegman said he worries about what the future of rental housing will hold if Washington decides to eliminate Fannie and Freddie's practice of buying and holding multi-family home loans as part of a possible bigger White House effort to eliminate the portfolio activity of the entities.

"In this scenario, what happens to the needs of those affordable-housing developers who can't access the secondary market?" asked Stegman. "Without it we will see a reduction of supply of multi-family homes and it will raise the costs of rental units."

[Tansy_Gold]

50. Okay, explain this to me

Is this report saying that the developers of multi-unit housing need to be able to buy and/or sell mortgages into the derivatives market in order to make them affordable? Someone else has to be able to skim profits off??

What happened to the good ol' days -- yes, I'm old! -- when someone built an apartment complex and then paid off the mortgage with the incoming rents? Or is that just soooo 20th century?



TG

[Roland99]

51. Oh, Tansy...perhaps that's why this country is SO NYT

they don't think as clearly as us. In fact, many of them don't think at all. They keep trying the same things over and over because, by golly, *this* time it will work and we'll all be stupid rich.




as if....

[jtuck004]

57. Rent? But that would involve renters...eeeewwww.

Instead we employ some low-wage workers, preferrably undocumented, in case any get hurt, to build some semblance of a building
with a loan from private sources. They throw all that into a bond, which disappears into the maw of a bond. Someone sells a credit default swap, and then another desk sells 10, or 30 or 40, more separate pieces of insurance to create some synthetic CDO's. The building never really gets the return, but the builder makes decent money, (they filed bankruptcy on the bills after it was half paid for, and 3 $12/hr employees at lumber yards and a couple of $15/hr electrical trainees from the trade school were laid off) the immigrants are deported, the tax credits they got when negotiating the building permit keep them from having to pay too much (who needs streets, police, schools anyway?). And the folks on the finance end get their payments for a while, and when that comes apart, the taxpayer gets to fund the whole thing to someone who was lucky enough to buy insurance for 20, or maybe 12, basis points. Oh, and it created a job for a secretary at $8.00/hr (single mom, two kids, no health insurance requirement).

America. Land of the free. Apartments for the brave.

[Roland99]

54. 12:45ish - Triple Digit Damage. Oil under $74

Dow 10,165 -106 -1.03%
Nasdaq 2,165 -14 -0.63%
S&P 500 1,066 -10 -0.89%
GlobalDow 1,807 -25 -1.37%
Gold 1,228 -7 -0.57%
Oil 73.61 -1.16 -1.55%

[Demeter]

56. There'll be a Miracle About 3 PM, I'll Betcha

And over the weekend, all that excess supply of oil will evaporate like the leak in the Gulf...

I need a theme, and I think The Age of Aquarius appeals. So we're going to focus on Hair....all kinds of hair. Dog, cat, non, toupees and wigs, just for comic relief.

Then everyone can say I've flipped my wig, and tell the truth.

[Po_d Mainiac]

59. Fur balls, nose hair, hair brained ideas, PIIGS tails and uni-brows,...Oy yoy n/t

[Roland99]

66. They started early. NASDAQ already even on the day. DJIA only down 60.

[Po_d Mainiac]

60. How bad could it get?

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/and-now-we%27re-headed-for-the-greatest-depression-says-gerald-celente-535350.html?tickers=^dji,^gspc,tlt,tbt,edv,udn,tip&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

[Demeter]

63. Thanks for That, I Think

Buy stock in anti-depressants.

[florida08]

64. oy

http://www.roubini.com/us-monitor/259439/forget_a_double_dip__we___re_still_in_one_long_big_dipper

Forget a Double Dip, We’re Still in One Long Big Dipper

[DemReadingDU]

65. Think of it as partying to the max, for the past 50 years

Now, all must suffer with the worst hangover.
:(

[jtuck004]

61. Did anyone just watch Howard Dean on CNBC?

It was a short segment on a panel, and I may not have caught it all. He was saying the world is in the midst of a global economic reorganizing, that we cannot be like Greece, and have to start being more like China...

Did I hear that right? Less like countries which offer vacations and health care, and more like those who grind up cheap labor in manufacturing?

[Demeter]

62. That is ridiculous on the face of it

maybe he's advocating one-child families and sex-selective pregnancy screenings and infanticide and all that?

I wonder if the Good Doctor has had a stroke, or if someone has his family hostage. This isn't the first ill-thought babble out of his mouth.

There are a lot of Chinese immigrants in Ann Arbor, and they wouldn't go back for anything.

[Tansy_Gold]

68. Howard lost me completely when he said the mosque shouldn't be built

in NYC. He reached a level of rightwing compartmentalizaion and double standard truly worthy of Sarah Palin, and I don't fling that insult around lightly.

But hey, he's got his. He don't have to worry about workin' no stinkin' sweat shop job, pickin' tomatoes or onions in the 110-degree heat, none o' that shit for him and his.

Fuck you, Howard.



TG, who don't mince words