STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 25

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 25, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 23, 2010

Dow 10,040.45 -133.96 (-1.32%)
Nasdaq 2,123.76 -35.87 (-1.66%)
S&P 500 1,051.87 -15.49 (-1.45%)
Gold future... 1,233 -0.60 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.51 +0.01 (+0.48%)
30-Year Bond 3.57 +0.01 (+0.28%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Durable Orders Jul
Briefing.com 3.2%
Consensus 3.0%
Prior -1.2%

08:30 Durable Goods -ex Transportation Jul
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior -0.9%

10:00 New Home Sales Jul
Briefing.com 300K
Consensus 334K
Prior 330K

10:30 Crude Inventories 08/21
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -0.818M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Po_d Mainiac]

17. Surprising news!

The anal-ist's missed again

DGO 0.3% vs estimate of 3.0% At least they got the three right!

[Roland99]

23. oh, they just transposed the decimal place.

[Dr.Phool]

31. Sales of new homes hit slowest pace on record

More unexpected shit!



Sales of new homes hit slowest pace on record
Unexpected 12.4 percent drop in July latest sign recovery is fading

Advertisement | ad info
Image: New home sales fall 33 percent iIn May
Joe Raedle / Getty Images
A sign indicating a new home is available for sale in Miami, Fla. Sales of new homes dropped last month to the slowest pace on record, the latest sign that the economic recovery is fading.
By ALAN ZIBEL
updated 13 minutes ago


BREAKING NEWS


WASHINGTON — Sales of new homes dropped sharply last month to the slowest pace on record, the latest sign that the economic recovery is fading.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that new home sales fell 12.4 percent in July from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 276,600. That was the slowest pace on records dating back to 1963. The past three months have been the worst on record for new home sales.

The weak housing numbers worried Wall Street, dragging the Dow Jones industrial average below 10,000 for a second day.

Weak home sales mean fewer jobs in the construction industry, which normally powers economic recoveries. Each new home built creates, on average, the equivalent of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

"If new homes aren't selling, there's no incentive to build more," said Nigel Gault, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

(snip) http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38847695/ns/business-real_estate/

[Roland99]

32. I probably could have waited another year or two

but I really can't complain.

I was checking property records and a house with a very similar floorplan and total square footage just down a street from me sold in 2008 for $399,000. I paid nowhere NEAR that for mine and there have been a few closings in our section since we moved in so sales are happening, which is good.

But, would be nice if the Feds kept their hands out of the housing market for awhile (no more tax credits, no more buying up mortgages, etc.) Let the market settle down on its own for a change.

[Dr.Phool]

38. Maybe a hidden blessing in a disaster.

I got my property tax appraisal (not bill), and the way I'm interpreting it, I'll save a bundle on property taxes this year.

On the dark side, I got a letter from State Farm a couple of days earlier saying mine was one of the policies they were canceling in February. Now I may have to pay higher rates at Citizens.

[Roland99]

47. Reminds me...I need to file for the homestead exemption.

$50k off the appraisal amount is fine with me!

[Warpy]

43. I bought this dump in 1996

when the area was still recovering from the wave of crack dens and other invasions of scumbuckets in starter housing converted to cheap rentals. I knew the area was on its way up because it's a buffer zone between hard core slums and one of the nicer parts of town. It's also convenient to everything, making it attractive to downsizers who want shorter commutes to work. My place is worth about 50% more than I paid for it, even though its value has declined from the peak back in 2006. Should I decide to sell now, I'll make money on the deal and houses here are still selling.

I agree that the market should be allowed to settle itself without the interference of the Feds in sales. However, mortgage relief for people who are underwater and/or facing steep ARM increases are vitally necessary unless you want to live in a sea of deteriorating foreclosures. Keeping people in the houses they already are in is a good thing. Supporting unrealistic prices is not.

[Roland99]

48. I agree with the help re: foreclosures but something's awry with the program.

not being applied properly?

people don't know about it?

banks dragging their feet?


all of the above?

[Warpy]

50. All of the above, but mostly it's banks dragging their feet

because they still want those SIVs to be worth their face value. While that's simply not realistic and the choice is a stark one between no value and pennies on the dollar, they're still clinging to the delusion that price recovery is just around the corner, happy days are here again, put the champagne on ice now to be ready for it.

[AnneD]

62. When we had our RE bust here in the 80's....

we really didn't start to recover until.....
1) banks didn't start working with folks.
2) banks started dropping the prices, and
3) employment finally picked up.

Banks, or I should say Savings and Loans started going under because they didn't do 1 and 2. They didn't really have much controll over number 3.

The savings and loans were pretty much wiped out but count on a lot of small banks to feel the same burn this time around.

[mrdmk]

36. This just in from Phew Research, '99.98% of Americans say moving is a BITCH!'

Things are lost and broken forever gone. It takes time from work to register little Johnny in school. Even the Post Office is unhelpful by only forwarding your mail for six months. Another complaint is getting to know your new neighbors ranked very high for unknown reasons. Phew Research will do research into the research of the new neighbor research and this research will probably have profound facts into researching the research. News at 11!!!

[AnneD]

63. ...

:boring:

Who paid for that 'research' and how much did it set them back. If I tell them that research shows that water is wet, how much can I get for THAT.

[Hawkowl]

64. Orders for machinery down 15%

I heard on NPR news that if the transportation sector is factored out, durable goods are down 3.8%. Business orders for capital goods are down 8%, the lowest since January 2009. It appears that the replenishment of inventory is done for now, and that the structural damage to our economic system will continue.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129421130

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises slightly as economic data tempers gains

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices rose slightly Wednesday in Asia after a 13 percent fall over three weeks drew buyers but weak economic indicators tempered gains.

The price of crude has retreated nearly 13 percent in the past three weeks, creating a buying opportunity for traders. This helped to underpin oil prices Wednesday despite weaker Asian stock markets and a stronger dollar.

Prices took a beating Tuesday after the U.S. National Association of Realtors said sales of previously occupied homes fell 27.2 percent in July to an annual rate of 3.83 million, far below what analysts expected. That report adds to high unemployment and sluggish manufacturing activity in the key Mid-Atlantic region as evidence of a slowing U.S. economic recovery.

The Energy Department will release its updated supply picture later Wednesday. American Petroleum Institute figures released late Tuesday showed an unexpected draw of 1.85 million barrels in crude inventories last week but gasoline supplies rose by 692,000 barrels.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Credit card debt drops to lowest level in 8 years

NEW YORK – The amount consumers owed on their credit cards in this year's second quarter dropped to the lowest level in more than eight years as cardholders continued to pay off balances in the uncertain economy.

The average combined debt for bank-issued credit cards — like those with a MasterCard or Visa logo — fell to $4,951 in the three months ended June 30, down more than 13 percent from $5,719 in the same period a year ago, according to TransUnion.

Reflecting the weak economies in the states hardest hit by the housing crisis, the delinquency rate was highest in Nevada, at 1.5 percent of cardholders, followed by Florida, 1.24 percent, Arizona, 1.11 percent and California, 1.08 percent. In all, 16 states fared worse than the national average for delinquencies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100825/ap_on_bi_ge/us_credit_card_delinquencies_transunion

[ozymandius]

4. Housing slump clouds US recovery prospects

WASHINGTON (AFP) – US home sales are plunging despite rock-bottom mortgage rates as high unemployment prevents people from buying houses and threatens to curtail economic recovery.

Existing-home sales plunged for the third straight month by a whopping 27.2 percent in July to levels unseen in more than a decade, an industry group said Tuesday.

Sales of single-family homes, townhomes and condominiums dropped to 3.83 million units from 5.26 million units in June, said the National Association of Realtors (NAR),

Single-family home sales -- accounting for the bulk of transactions -- were at the lowest in 15 years, the association said, providing the latest statistics on the housing sector, which was at the epicenter of the financial crisis that plunged the nation into recession in December 2007.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100825/ts_alt_afp/useconomypropertysales

[ozymandius]

7. Exisiting Home Sales Plummet 27.2%

Ritholtz's perspective:

Everyone knew that Existing Home Sales were going to stink the joint up today — but I just had to laugh when I read the NAR commentary; The headline along was priceless: July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise. Too bad they don’t cover other events: “Lincoln attends theater opening; leaves early with headache.”

They are the world’s most awesome/awful cheerleaders on the planet.

The housing data itself contains some worthwhile data points:

• National median existing-home price was $182,600 in July 2010 — 0.7% higher than June 2009.

• Distressed homes were 32% of sales, vs. 31% in July 2009.

• First-time buyers purchased 38% of all homes, down from 43% in June, according to an NAR survey. The decrease in the purchase of starter homes helps to explain the price rise.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/exisiting-home-sales-plummet-27/

There was a time when the NAR appeared to have had a "come to Jesus meeting" with someone - maybe with itself. They actually started to report the news warts-n-all. That attitude has faded apparently.

[ozymandius]

5. Global outlook casts shadow over Fed mountain retreat

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Central bankers from around the world will assess a darkening economic outlook at their annual U.S. mountain retreat this week with discussion of printing yet more money to spur growth on the agenda.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is likely to signal his views about the uncertain prospects for the world's biggest economy but he probably won't give many clues on whether the U.S. central bank will pump more cash to keep the recovery going.

The likely mood of concern among the central bankers heading for the wilds of Wyoming contrasts with the optimism of a year ago, when debate at Jackson Hole centered on ways to wean economies off emergency support as they emerged from recession.

Bernanke's speech Friday will be a keystone of the three-day conference, which has chosen as its theme the challenges of the next decade. His audience will be listening keenly for clues about shorter-term support for the economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100825/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_bernanke

[Demeter]

20. Oh, To Be A Fly on the Wall

carrying typhoid fever....

[ozymandius]

6. Irish Bonds Slump After S&P Cuts Rating One Step on Banks

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Irish bond yields jumped to the highest since May after Standard & Poor’s cut the country’s credit rating one step by to AA- on concern the rising cost of supporting its struggling banks will swell the budget deficit.

S&P increased its estimate for recapitalizing the banking system to as much as 50 billion euros ($63 billion) from a previous estimate of as much as 35 billion euros. Ireland’s rating, now the lowest since 1995, is still one notch better than Italy’s and three above Portugal’s. It is seven steps higher than Greece’s junk status.

The yield on Irish two-year government bonds rose as much as 31 basis points to 3.127 percent. That’s the highest since May 7, the day that EU leaders started to put together a bailout plan for the euro region.

The extra return demanded by investors to hold 10-year debt over German counterparts climbed to a record of 332 basis points, 26 points above the May 7 level. The Spanish and Greek spreads were almost unchanged at 183 points and 883 points, respectively.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=apnMOH1bjvAg

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The article continues to say that Ireland is worse off than Iceland.

[Demeter]

21. Of Course they are!

Iceland isn't following the Enforcers' rules...

[ozymandius]

8. Don't like the recent news? Quit your whining. There's news coming to whine about.

More Negative News Flow Coming
by Calculated Risk

Just a reminder ... in addition to the existing home sales report this morning, there is more negative news coming.

On Friday, the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released. In the advance release, the BEA reported real GDP increased at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q2. However subsequent economic releases for construction spending, inventory and trade all suggest downward revisions in the second release. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.3% real annualized growth.

And next week, the ISM manufacturing index will be released - and this will probably continue to decline based on the regional manufacturing reports (I'm tracking all the regional reports right now because I expect a slowdown in manufacturing).

And next Friday, the August employment report will be released. I expect another weak report - and I expect the unemployment rate to start ticking up.

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There is more information, including relevant links available, at the Calculated Risk link above. Read 'em and weep.

[Demeter]

10. That Should Make for an Interesting Weekend

Hmmm, what would be a significant, appropriate theme?

[Po_d Mainiac]

14. Gone with the wind

Plenty of characters to play the "carpet Baggers"

[Demeter]

22. That's Very Appealing, Po

We haven't done Gone With the Wind. But lots of other people have, and put it on youtube....and we can throw in Civil War music and stuff...Okay!


I'm kinda saving the Depression for official notice...

[Po_d Mainiac]

42. Quite frankly my dear

All we are is dust in the wind

[Po_d Mainiac]

44. The banksters of Atlanta are putting Sherman to shame. n/t

[rfranklin]

15. Brother Can You Spare a Dime?

Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me...Nobody Knows You When You're Down and Out...

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. The 'Doors" version

Well, I've been down so Goddamn long
That it looks like up to me
Well, I've been down so very damn long
That it looks like up to me
Yeah, why don't one you people
C'mon and set me free

I said, warden, warden, warden
Won't you break your lock and key
I said, warden, warden, warden
Won't ya break your lock and key
Yeah, come along here, mister
C'mon and let the poor boy be

Baby, baby, baby
Won't you get down on your knees
Baby, baby, baby
Won't you get down on your knees
C'mon little darlin'
C'mon and give your love to me, oh yeah

Well, I've been down so Goddamn long
That it looks like up to me
Well, I've been down so very damn long
That it looks like up to me
Yeah, why don't one you people
C'mon, c'mon, c'mon and set me free

[Dr.Phool]

19. Or "The End" by the Doors.

Nah, too optimistic.

[boomerbust]

Rolling Stones

"Street Fightin Man" People are fed up and thats what it will take.

[boomerbust]

24. Rolling Stones

"Street Fightin Man" People are fed up and thats what it will take.

[Demeter]

25. I Just Don't Know the Doors or the Rolling Stones

I was a folk singer enthusiast. If you want to do it, you're gonna have to help.

[Dr.Phool]

26. If you saw the movie "Apocalyse Now".

The End was the opening song.

[Demeter]

65. nope

[ozone_man]

37. "Well this could be the last time"

Well I told you once and I told you twice
But ya never listen to my advice
You don't try very hard to please me
With what you know it should be easy

Well this could be the last time
This could be the last time
Maybe the last time
I don't know. Oh no. Oh no.

Well, I'm sorry girl but I can't stay
Feelin' like I do today
It's too much pain and too much sorrow
Guess I'll feel the same tomorrow

Well this could be the last time
This could be the last time
Maybe the last time
I don't know. Oh no. Oh no.

Well I told you once and I told you twice
That someone will have to pay the price
But here's a chance to change your mind
Cuz I'll be gone a long, long time

Well this could be the last time
This could be the last time
Maybe the last time
I don't know. Oh no. Oh no.
Well, this could be the last time

--------------------

They're referring to the last time we cross 10K, to the downside of course. :)

[AnneD]

29. Tea House of the August Moon....

A seldom done play these days but very appropriate when contemplating various forms of government etc. Because an Autumn Moon is later in the year, it suggests wisdom. And as a conquered people (conquered by corporations) one can gain some wisdom about living despite the goings on.

Plot summary
Misfit Captain Fisby (Glenn Ford) is sent to Americanise the village of Tobiki on Okinawa. His commanding officer, Colonel Wainwright Purdy III (Paul Ford), assigns him a wily local, Sakini (Marlon Brando), to act as interpreter. Fisby tries to implement the military's plans, by encouraging the villagers to build a school (in the shape of a pentagon), but they want to build a teahouse instead. Fisby gradually becomes assimilated to the local customs and mores with the help of Sakini and Lotus Blossom, a young geisha (Machiko Kyô). To revive the economy, he has the Okinawans manufacture small items to sell as souvenirs, but nobody wants to buy them. Then Fisby makes a happy discovery. The villagers brew a potent alcoholic beverage in a matter of days, which finds a ready market in the American army. With the influx of money, the teahouse is built in next to no time. When Purdy sends psychiatrist Captain McLean (Eddie Albert) to check up on Fisby, the newcomer is quickly won over. (In a foreshadowing of Albert's later role on Green Acres, he proves to be enthusiastic about organic farming.) When Purdy doesn't hear from either officer, he shows up in person and surprises Fisby (in a bathrobe as an improvised kimono) and McLean (in a yukata), leading a rowdy song at a party in full swing in the teahouse. Despite Purdy's anger, in a deus ex machina, the village is chosen by the SCAP as an example of successful democratisation.

www.bookrags.com/wiki/The_Teahouse_of_the_August_Moon#Plot_summary

[Demeter]

66. I Always Liked "Wake Me When It's Over"

Ernie Kovacs on the island that time and the US army forgot...

[AnneD]

73. Ah yes......

:smoke:

[florida08]

13. *sigh*

[ozymandius]

9. Have a nice day, all.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Time for me prepare for work. :hi:

[Festivito]

11. Debt: 08/23/2010 13,363,278,285,831.30 (UP 1,538,374,444.79) (Mon)

(Down a little. Good day.)
No response for tent poles. Found good eggs tho.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,833,234,650,714.33 + 4,530,043,635,116.97
DOWN 107,792,107.60 + UP 1,646,166,552.39

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.44 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,938,947 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,115.84.
A family of three owes $129,347.52. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,216,058,582.79.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,825,109,627.38.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,701,718,994.24.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 224 reports in 327 days of FY2010 averaging 6.49B$ per report, 4.44B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 881 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/23/2010 13,363,278,285,831.30 BHO (UP 2,736,401,236,918.22 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,453,449,282,319.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,622,351,645,402.61 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon

61,543,546,820.53 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4515502&mesg_id=4515529

[Festivito]

69. Debt: 08/24/2010 13,371,301,700,295.28 (UP 8,023,414,463.98) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Went lakeside, unfortunately, a mall. Day starts and ends with a flat tire.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,833,727,680,597.51 + 4,537,574,019,697.77
UP 493,029,883.18 + UP 7,530,384,580.80

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.37 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,945,593 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,140.8.
A family of three owes $129,422.41. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,338,117,534.14.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,092,556,776.18.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,836,771,977.67.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 225 reports in 328 days of FY2010 averaging 6.50B$ per report, 4.46B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 880 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/24/2010 13,371,301,700,295.28 BHO (UP 2,744,424,651,382.20 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,461,472,696,783.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,626,333,946,115.79 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********

62,265,547,064.39 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4516845&mesg_id=4516881

[Demeter]

12. U.S. Agriculture Secretary: 'Aw, Let's Not Do Farming Anymore'

http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-agriculture-secretary-aw-lets-not-do-farming-an,950/

Citing the massive economic woes plaguing the nation's farmers and the severe physical hardship of farming itself, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman announced Monday that he would like to "forget about the whole farming thing altogether."

....

According to Glickman, despite heavy government subsidies, the nation's agricultural community has struggled badly in recent years, with declining prices in an increasingly globalized marketplace making it more and more difficult for farmers to eke out a living wage and keep up with the soaring costs of maintaining and running a modern farm...

THIS IS FROM A PLACE THAT GROWS LOTS OF ONIONS (HINT, HINT)

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. How did they miss playing with the 'green shoot' madness of a year ago?

[AnneD]

30. Those green shoots the braged about...

twern't nothing but weeds.

[Dr.Phool]

27. Uh oh. 10:00am Dow below 9960. S&P at 1042.

[Roland99]

34. 11:45 - barely treading above 10k. S&P under 1,050

Dow 10,016 -24 -0.24%
Nasdaq 2,123 -0 -0.02%
S&P 500 1,048 -4 -0.36%
GlobalDow 1,767 -16 -0.89%
Oil 71.45 -0.18 -0.25%
Gold 1,240 +7 +0.57%
Euro /$1US 1.2654 +0.0026
$1US / Yen 84.5800 +0.4500
Pound / $1US 1.5460 +0.0049
Aud / $1US 0.8800 -0.0022
10yr T-note 2.47 -0.02
2yr T-note 0.49 0.00

[DemReadingDU]

28. We are right at the tipping point. The end game approaches.

8/25/10 Hard-nosed Fed sends global markets reeling By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The global bond markets and the twin havens of the yen and Swiss franc have been flashing warning signs for weeks, tracking leading indicators as they topple like dominoes. They always sniff trouble first.

More ominously, some Fed officials fear the central bank is already "pushing on a string" and does not have the means to revive the economy. Whether or not they are right, this comes as a psychological shock for investors schooled by the "Greenspan Put' into thinking that there is a deus ex machina in the wings.

"This has been one of the most interesting days in finance ever," said Andrew Roberts, head of credit at RBS. "We are right at the tipping point. Yields are about to collapse even further, equities are about to turn over. The end game approaches, probably in next few weeks."

more...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7962825/Hard-nosed-Fed-sends-global-markets-reeling.html

[Roland99]

33. 10-year note yields at the lowest since January 2009

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-10-yr-yields-hit-lowest-since-january-2009-2010-08-25

[florida08]

35. Today is my anniversary

37 years. We were 10 when we married.<g> So I'm going shopping for my better half..and he is. You guys have a good day..keep it between the lines :fistbump:

[Dr.Phool]

40. Happy Anniversary!!

:toast: :party: :toast:

[florida08]

45. thank you Dr. Phool

Time goes by fast :beer:

[DemReadingDU]

51. Happy Anniversary!

and many more!

[florida08]

52. awww very nice Dem

and thank you for the lovely cake. Wish I could bake like that ..lol

[DemReadingDU]

54. You're welcome!

If I could bake like that, I'd bake you a lovely cake, and one for spouse and me. Our 40th is coming up in a couple weeks!

[Roland99]

56. w00t!

congrats!! :)

[florida08]

71. thank you Roland

[TheWatcher]

59. Happy Anniversary.

:)

May the strength of your love and passion for one another last another 37 years and beyond. :)

[florida08]

72. I like that..thank you too

[TheWatcher]

39. I'm noticing something very creepy about DU the past few days.

Despite the obvious and desperate manipulation by TPTB and the Algo-Robo Robots to keep the Market above 10K, because after all it is a matter of "National Security" (I.E. "National Security"= Doing whatever it takes to keep the Sheep Public dumb, stupid, and distracted away from actual reality at all costs, so that the Fake, Psychopathic, Oligarchy that runs this country can remain in control of things),
it is apparent that the current Bubble, and our Economic and Financial System is once again on the edge of collapse.

And yet, despite the obvious and ominous signs of what is going on, there is very little to no discussion of it on DU, outside of this thread, the Economic Forum, and a few scantly responded to posts in LBN, reporting the obvious as stated above.

Even the Economic Cheerleaders who regularly and staunchly defend the status quo and bully anybody that dares offer an even slightly alternative view to the contrary are silent, nowhere to be found, and crickets are chirping on a scale never before seen on this Site.

What I AM seeing is a desperate focusing on ANYTHING, ANY Distraction OTHER than the obvious implosion of the current fallacy known as "The Recovery". You don't see that in SMW of course, but everywhere else, there is so much whistling that the dead themselves might call the Police and issue a noise complaint.

Another observation I've made on the outside world, and have observed from other postings and observations around the country in various places and regions, is that the past couple of months, there has been an almost insane, drunken, desperate spree going on (by those who still have the capital and ability to do so), as people pack the malls, restaurants, etc, in an almost Roman Empiresque Frenzy, as if there had never been a Recession, High Unemployment, or any of the realities we currently face.

Instead of Bread Lines, we have lines of frantic, hysterical lambs at the Apple Store, willing to trample and climb over one another for the latest gimcrack, gee-gaw gadget.

It's an almost manic, herdlike behavior that completely contradicts any reality currently going on.

And I mention this because it is the exact kind of peak frenzy that I witnessed in 2007 and 2008, before the House OF Cards came Crashing down AGAIN, like 2000 and 2003.

Where am I going with all this?

I don't know.

It appears though, that we are once again reaching "Peak Denial", and the mass silence toward the Elephant In The Room is getting so deafening, it's a wonder we can hear any sound at all.

For those that can still see and are informed, and have left The Matrix, it would be very wise and prudent for all of you to remain sharp, alert, and attentive the next few months.

Things are about to get very interesting.

And not in the good way.

Stay Safe, Everyone.

[Dr.Phool]

41. I think it's ongoing PTSD. Shell shock.

People get hit with a club again and again and again, and after a while it seems like the "New Normal" they keep talking about. It's almost like those last two words on 95% of cockpit voice recorders. "Oh Shit". It's inevitable. It's coming. And there ain't nothing you can do about it.

The Shock Doctrine at work. Maybe just a little subtler, but it's still at work!

[Demeter]

67. A Lot of People Are On Vacation This Week

Those that still have jobs, that is.

[Warpy]

46. People who have been right in the past about the popping bubbles

are predicting another dramatic pop now and I tend to agree with them. The system is still unsustainable, the bubbles getting smaller every time but still forming as the dying gasp of a plutocracy trying to gain wealth without the dirty business of actually investing in producing it.

The only thing they've been wrong about is the timing. Most predicted the deflation of the current bubble to start in June.

Predicting what will happen should be a no brainer, especially now that the system is so lopsided and the most hardcore conservatives are reluctantly agreeing that if you don't pay people, they'll stop buying the crap the corporations make. Predicting when it will happen, however, is a loser game that discredits the predictor every single time.

[florida08]

49. I noticed it too

Most are discussing current events and heaven knows there's plenty of that daily. Here is where the hard truth is given on the economy so they probably figure that's where it belongs and under the "Economy" topic. I can bet you that many come in to read without recommending or posting. Bad news must be taken in increments but I know they're not uninformed. You do have to have distractions from worry or good alcohol.

Having said that I agree we need to be prudent and frugal. I think if we don't see a crash by this year then probably early in 2011 but it's just guessing. Never know what the PPT will do. Goldman Sachs is saying:

“The Fed will eventually move to additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures,...
saying they will maintain their holdings of securities at $2.05 trillion to prevent money from draining out of the financial system.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aWAIE6qqsoqo

Like Dr. Phool said..the last words spoken in the cockpit as the plane is going down is "oh shit"..so true

[DemReadingDU]

53. It's a 'return to normal'

At least for my family and circle of friends, who believe nothing is going to implode.
Spend, Spend, Spend. Buy more stuff, eat out every day.
The stock market always recovers.
Nothing to worry about.
:crazy:

[TalkingDog]

55. Extroverts have short attention spans. It's how their brains process information

They process information in the mid-brain, closer to the instinctual centers of the brain. It also makes them prone to group thinkyness, because they are, after all, extroverts. They need confirmation about their internal states from others. In terms of thinking, they are sprinters.

Introverts tend to mull things over forever.Their ponderings occur in the forebrain, where logic and rationality are dominant. They need confirmation about their internal states from themselves and so, are not so prone to falling in with the crowd. In terms of thinking, they are the marathon runners.

People who see the overarching picture, or see the long term trend or end result, instead of the short term benefits would be more inclined to spend time in a place like the SMW.

The folks who don't look any deeper than their socks will be stunned, but being made to switch gears quickly, they will squall a bit and move on. The deeper thinkers will have seen it coming and prepared in advance.

Either way, life will proceed. You can't feel sorry for them, it's how they are made.

[Ruby the Liberal]

61. I am doing this somewhat, but with a different mindset.

I am only 1 person, so not making much of a dent, but I have increased my use of LOCAL businesses and restaurants.

I hired a friend's cleaning lady to give my house a good, thorough, professional cleaning. I eat at locally owned (not chain) restaurants more than I did. I had my long hair cut and now have regular trimmings. All things I would have never considered while I was unemployed.

This isn't the same as hanging out at the Apple store though - at least not to me. It is my way of helping out my neighbors as we are ALL in the same boat right now. What little I would have saved is helping them stay in business and that means a lot to me. I see it as paying it forward.

[TheWatcher]

70. Good For you. I like your perspective Ruby.

You definitely have the right idea

Encourage others to do the same. :)

:thumbsup:

[Roland99]

57. Another 3:30 miracle! The markets are well! Bill Cosby would be proud!!

"When I was a kid I never went to school--I said I was sick--but I always managed to get better by 3:30--I’d run into the kitchen--“Look, ma-a miracle happened! I’m well! A little angel came and sat on my bed--she touched me with a wand and said, “Go out and play.”"

[Po_d Mainiac]

58. Can't have that under 1050 close...Too much air below....YMMV n/t

[TheWatcher]

60. You know, in the midst of all this insanity, maybe we need a lift.

If there is anything I have learned from GhostDog, Music Always Helps.

So, in that respect, I give you my favorite Songbird.

Even at 62, she still can light up the heavens with her voice..... :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKTTlVGIeFk&feature=related

[ozone_man]

68. That voice makes me melt.

As good as ever. Thanks!