STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 7

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 7, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 3, 2010

Dow 10,447.93 +127.83 (+1.22%)
Nasdaq 2,233.75 +33.74 (+1.51%)
S&P 500 1,104.51 +14.41 (+1.30%)
Gold future... 1,251 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond... 1,254 +0.50 (+0.04%)
30-Year Bond 3.72 +0.01 (+0.14%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls below $74 as traders look to US economy

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to near $74 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as investors mull the strength of the U.S. economy and demand for crude.

Analysts are still digesting Friday's U.S. jobs report for August. Private employers added 67,000 jobs last month, more than analysts expected. However, the jobless rate rose in August to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent in July.

Oil has mostly traded in the mid-$70s this summer as investors struggle to gauge how much global economic growth may slow in the second half and how much that will affect crude demand. Most analysts expect the U.S. economy won't slip back into recession.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Obama assails GOP, promotes new jobs program

MILWAUKEE – A combative President Barack Obama rolled out a long-term jobs program Monday that would exceed $50 billion to rebuild roads, railways and runways, and coupled it with a blunt campaign-season assault on Republicans for causing Americans' hard economic times.

GOP leaders instantly assailed Obama's proposal as an ineffective one that would simply raise already excessive federal spending. Many congressional Democrats are also likely to be reluctant to boost expenditures and increase federal deficits just weeks before elections that will determine control of Congress.

Jim Manley, spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, cautioned, "If we are going to get anything done, Republican cooperation, which has been all but non-existent recently, will be necessary."

That left the plan with low, if not impossible, odds of becoming law this year. When Congress returns from summer recess in mid-September, it is likely to remain in session for only a few weeks before lawmakers return home to campaign for re-election.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100907/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama_economy

---

Republican cooperation √
Job boost next year √

I'm not holding my breath.

[Demeter]

16. Too Little, Too Late

Nobody over the Age of 40 is going to be hired for such labor...unless they've done it all their lives. And it's the Boomers whose jobs are irreplaceable, upon whose fortunes the economy hinges. And what are women to do? Dig ditches beside the men?

Meanwhile education is gutted--the one thing mature people can best contribute...

[Hawkowl]

48. Harry Reid

The statement from Jim Manley is why I honestly think the dems would be better off if Reid lost. Yes, there will be another bat shit crazy rethuglican senator, but she could have a polarizing Palin like effect. She could actually swing votes away from her in the medium to long run, and if the Dems could get a real arm twisting s.o.b. as majority leader, then good things might finally happen.

[Demeter]

53. I couldn't agree more

Getting Daschle out, I thought we would have a chance, but Reid is just as bad, if not more so.

[ozymandius]

4. World stocks gain, dollar falls

LONDON (AFP) – Global stock markets rose and the dollar fell on Monday as investors further digested better-than-expected US jobs data which reduced prospects of a return to recession.

London's FTSE 100 index of top shares rose 0.45 percent to 5,452.48 points in late morning trade following strong gains in Tokyo.

Frankfurt's DAX 30 climbed 0.42 percent to 6,160.62 points and in Paris the CAC 40 index gained 0.57 percent in value to reach 3,695.47 points approaching the half-way mark in European trade.

The US Labor Department had on Friday said that the world's biggest economy lost 54,000 jobs last month, a better figure than the 120,000 loss expected by economists. But the unemployment rate climbed to 9.6 percent, the highest level since May.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100906/bs_afp/europefinancestocksforex

[Ghost Dog]

8. European stocks fall, miners down on Australia vote

AFP - Europe's main stock markets slid on Tuesday after a run of gains, with miners hit by the electoral result in Australia ahead of Wall Street's reopening after a US public holiday, traders said.

Banking shares were also in the red on renewed concerns over the health of European banks and amid shake-ups at the top of Barclays and HSBC.

London's FTSE 100 index of top shares fell 0.77 percent to 5,397.41 points in late morning trade.

Frankfurt's DAX 30 dropped 0.63 percent to 6,116.04 points and in Paris the CAC 40 index shed 1.06 percent to 3,645.27 approaching the half-way mark.

The Stoxx 50 index of leading eurozone companies declined 0.90 percent to 2,728.97 points.

/... http://www.france24.com/en/20100907-european-stocks-fall-miners-down-australia-vote

(The above was Monday. This is today. Renewed attacks on Eurozone underway now, I see...)

[Ghost Dog]

10. Euro falls as bank 'stress test' worries resurface

AFP - The euro fell against the dollar on Tuesday over renewed concerns surrounding the health of European banks, dealers said.

In morning trading in London, the European single currency dropped to 1.2764 dollars from 1.2883 dollars on Monday.

Against the Japanese currency, the dollar slipped to 83.94 yen from 84.21 yen on Monday.

The euro lost ground on doubts over Europe's "stress tests" on major banks, said Toshihiko Sakai, senior dealer at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking.

The results, published in July, showed all but seven European lenders out of 91 banks were strong enough to withstand future financial crises. But a report in the Wall Street Journal Tuesday said the tests "minimised" their debt risks and "understated some lenders' holdings of potentially risky government debt," citing its own analysis. "An examination of the banks' disclosures indicates that some banks didn't provide as comprehensive a picture of their government-debt holdings as regulators claimed," it said.

/... http://www.france24.com/en/20100907-euro-falls-bank-stress-test-worries-resurface


'The market has been able to give full attention to the negative European developments,' said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

These include new questions about the stress tests, concerns over the amount of capital that will need to be raised under Basel III, and reports suggesting euro zone governments will seek to raise 100 bln euros this month, roughly twice the amount raised in August, Chandler said.

...

The yen hit the day's high after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said monetary authorities could not control forex rates, increasing speculation Japan was not preparing to act to stem yen strength at the moment.

...

The market's focus on risk aversion also boosted the Swiss franc, pushing the euro 1.1 percent lower to 1.2892 francs. The dollar was down 0.1 percent at 1.0108.

The Australian dollar was down 0.6 percent at $0.9117, hurt by general lack of risk appetite and as the ruling Labor Party secured enough numbers to form a minority government. Labor's return to power rekindled talk the government would press ahead with a tax on mining company profits.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/17893528-forex-euro-weighed-by-renewed-bank-and-economic-concerns-020.htm

[DemReadingDU]

15. Stunning New Global Regulations Will Put More Money in the Hands of Governments and the Power Elite

9/5/10 The Stunning New Global Regulations that Will Put More Money in the Hands of Governments and the Power Elite

Governments like to operate deep in complex technical details, when they are up to really no good. Few in the general public understand or pay attention to complex technical details of obscure regulatory moves, though those moves can be highly damaging for a country's citizens.

In Basel, Switzerland, global banking capital regulations, known as the Basel III rules, are in the process of being finalized. The rules are nothing but a stunning move by governments and the elite to direct money flows in their direction. When implemented, it will, over time, result in a lower standard of living on a global level for nearly all and greater separation between the super-wealthy tied in with global governments, and the rest of us.

The committee drafting the new Basel III rules will meet in Switzerland on Tuesday. A final set of rules is expected to be agreed on September 12. The leaders of the Group of 20 nations are expected to then endorse the rules when they meet in November.

The stunning manner in which Basel III will force banks to make "investments" in government and elite favored organizations is like nothing ever seen before. Indeed, incredibly, ranked as top tier investments that banks will be forced into buying will be sovereign debt that is on the edge of collapse and the edgy paper of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac!

more...
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/09/stunning-new-global-regulations-that.html

[Demeter]

17. Filling the Black Hole of Finance

a futile task. We will have to resort to barter to survive. Kill off the banks by starvation.

[DemReadingDU]

21. Barter doesn't pay the utilities

I really don't think the electric/gas/water companies would barter for any fresh vegetables or sewing skills.

To starve the banks, I would need to withdraw the savings and take the cash to the post office to purchase money orders to pay utilities.

Or dig a well for water and build solar & wind generators to produce electricity to alleviate bill paying.

Neither option is doable. Besides, electronic payments is so convenient. Those banks got us hooked.

[Demeter]

23. As a Barter Economy Gets Going

all the rest will follow. The Shadow Banking will be replaced by real, grassroots banking, rather like what sustained the world for thousands of years before Goldman Sachs...

[Tansy_Gold]

25. You still need a government to control/guarantee the currency

Unfortunately, DRDU is correct -- we can't go back to a barter economy unless we want to go back to a pre-technology world, say like North Korea. Our economy is far too complex for that.

And that's why the whole mess is so discouraging.


I spent a good portion of the week-end writing my "open letter" to Obama regarding the basics of economics and why NONE of his plans can work and why NONE of his advisers should collect another paycheck. Taking it back to the very essentials -- labor and materials, nothing more, no capital, no investment, no stock markets, no HFTs, etc., -- is quite a task. I'm sure Marx did a much better job than I, but I wanted to keep it really really simple.

Unfortunately, it's NOT simple, and that's what precludes going back to a barter economy UNLESS there's a complete collapse of the system, on a par with the fall of the Soviet Union or early 1930s Germany. I don't think the elites would allow that to happen: It would knock out much of their own "wealth" -- they depend on those electronic transfers -- and it would also knock out much of their technology-based security systems. A high-voltage charged security fence isn't much good if there's no electricity.

Strict self-sufficiency isn't realistic either, because it destroys the sense of community that's required for a functioning society. Indeed, it's that "rugged individualism" spirit that has brought America to this end.


My paid work calls, and I'm way behind schedule.


TG, NTY

[Demeter]

27. Our economy WAS that complex

It is rapidly devolving, however. In ten years, you won't recognize it. All the pillars upon which that magnificent edifice was constructed have been undermined, where they haven't crumbled away entirely.

Banking isn't rocket science. We have enough brains in this country to build an alternative.

Government? Government evolves out of the economy. No economy, no government. Alternate economy? Alternate government.


There isn't going to be anything of our social system to salvage. What we can save is:

1) our American founding principles (if the left grabs the stick)

2) our educational base (it's still there, but in 20 years it will be totally gone. Time is not our friend)

3) our technical and manufacturing knowhow (see #2)

4) whatever isn't carted overseas

5) the land. It's fertile, it's well-watered, it's abundant, and there are still some minerals

6) our landfills--the next great resource.


I really don't care if it becomes impossible to be an investment banker, or a politician, or an IRS auditor. People can live without such artificial, parasitical classes.

I do care that people eat, have shelter, useful work, and education. Would that Obama did.

[DemReadingDU]

30. Yes, exactly

You seem to be saying the same things as Stoneleigh from The Automatic Earth. She is going to be giving presentations in Michigan soon. Check the blog for schedule, located in upper right hand portion.
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/09/september-7-2010-infinite-elasticity-of.html

Further down today, I posted audio links from a couple recent interviews. Stoneleigh's interview with Alex Smith is only 22 minutes, and a good overall summary of today's bubble situation. I'm going to forward it to spouse's computer so he can listen prior to him taking me to hear Stoneleigh in Cleveland on Thursday.

[Roland99]

45. We should all envy the Amish.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. No we shouldn't

I've watched the Amish mistreat their farm animals shamefully, use someone else's telephone to call the veterinarian, and then not pay the bill.

I've seen how many of them treat their women, and it's not an attitude I can respect.

Many of them are no more able to live without technology than you or I, but they let someone else do the technology for them, thus keeping their own hands free from sin.

They don't respect education.

If you really want to go back to a 16th century rural lifestyle, be my guest, but do so without the hypocrisy that too many of the Amish practice.



TG, NTY

[Roland99]

54. I sit humbly corrected

:)

[Tansy_Gold]

63. And you are humbly forgiven

;-)


Just google "Amish puppy mills" for a sample.




TG, NTY

[mbperrin]

28. We haven't banked since 1978.

We do pay water/sewer to the city, but our total electric house bill ran less than $180 last year. The rest of the electric is produced by our 6 windmills and storage battery array (really just large forklift batteries). Best investment we ever made. During a blackout last week, we were the only island of light for as many blocks as you could see, except for Walgreen's, which has a backup generator of their own.

Money orders are great, because they are some trouble, reminding us that this really is money we're spending. When I quit working for banks in 1978, I quit them for everything else, too. It's not for everyone, but we're glad we did it.

[Tansy_Gold]

33. It's possible on an individual basis, but it would take

a complete and total collapse of The System to make anything like universal self-sufficiency possible.

Remember, too, that most people don't have access to the resources a few of us do, and that's a recipe for massive violence. Think Somalia.

The elites won't let it come to that, just to save their own skins. Or maybe they'll all decamp to Dubai like the Xe guy, Eric Prince. What a name!

Demeter's correct, though, that governments evolve out of economies and not the other way around.



TG, NTY

[DemReadingDU]

35. That is awesome!

I really would like to stop banking. Maybe if I start weaning myself bill by bill, week by week, it won't seem like such a massive chore.

And I need to convince spouse to convert to solar and wind power. He has all kind of basic building skills, he just prefers to use them to build and race gokarts nowadays. That is our son in the red kart who started from pole position, and won the race.



This is our daughter who decided to race this year


New Castle Motorsports Park - This is where we race...
http://www.newcastleraceway.com/


Do you have a picture of your windmills? You could send me a PM with more detail. Thanks!

[Po_d Mainiac]

36. So do the next best thing

Do your business with a local thrift (S&L) or Credit Union.

[DemReadingDU]

39. We do use a credit union too

But there is no branch in my small village, so we have to drive 10 miles if we need to use it. Actually, we have no branch of any credit union where we live. Just a couple branches of a couple different banks. But in the past year, we are using more of the local grocery store, drugstore, couple restaurants, and hardware store. Trying to support all the local businesses that we can.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

38. bastards!... well, I'm screwing them right back

Due to the complete lack of employment opportunities I am currently trading my skills as cook, gardener and primary caretaker of my Gram for room and board for myself and 2 sons. My Dad moved in with her first when he was laid off 4 years ago, and has since had to file for early SS. She's spending less supporting all of us than she was before we moved in, and our family bond is a million times stronger.

Take that you bastards! You're getting nothing from me.
:mad:

[DemReadingDU]

40. my mother-in-law moved in with us

This was about 10 years ago. It worked out well, she had us to look after her, and she managed the pets who adored her. But a few years ago, she suddenly passed away. It's possible as the economy devolves further, that one or both of my kids could move back here. Not that they want to, but might have to, as the situation develops.

[Roland99]

58. a few European bond spreads:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/european-bond-spreads.html


# The 10-year Ireland-to-Germany bond spread has risen to 376 bps. This spread is larger than during the financial crisis in May when the spread peaked at 306 bps.

# The 10-year Greece-to-Germany bond spread is now 946 bps, just below the peak level of 963 bps in May.

# The 10-year Portugal-to-Germany bond spread is now 351 bps, just above the peak in May of 349 bps.

[Ghost Dog]

11. Unexpected orders blow for German industry

AFP - European powerhouse Germany received a blow Tuesday as orders for its industrial goods unexpectedly dropped significantly in July, following a strong rise the month before, official data showed.

Industrial orders fell by 2.2 percent on the month, figures from the economy ministry showed, following an upwardly revised gain of 3.6 percent the previous month.

The data wrong-footed analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who had forecast a gain of 0.4 percent.

"The result for the current month was depressed by significantly below-average large orders," the ministry said in a statement.

However, taking the months of June and July together, which gives a better idea of the trend, industrial orders in Germany rose by 2.4 percent.

/... http://www.france24.com/en/20100907-unexpected-orders-blow-german-industry

[DemReadingDU]

13. Bloomberg: Europe’s Banks ‘Tied’ To Greek Debt

9/7/10 Bloomberg: Europe’s Banks ‘Tied’ To Greek Debt

Even after the EUR110 bil. bailout scheme for Greece, and the massive EUR750 bil package for endangered EU member states, investors are wary about Europe’s sovereign paper skittish about the banks that hold the region’s debt, Bloomberg says in a special report.

A default by Greece could lead the collapse of banks with large sovereign-bond holdings, Konrad Becker, a financial analyst at Merck Finck & Co. in Munich, told the news agency. “A default by one EU country would lead to an evaporation of trust in banks,” he said. “If investors aren’t willing to invest in banks anymore, then many banks will go bust in months, not years.”

These jitters have led to the interbank market freezing, since banks are nervous on lending each other. “The amount banks have parked at the ECB is just outrageous,” says Florian Esterer, a fund manager at Zurich- based Swisscanto Asset Management AG.

On the other hand, bankers seem to have the upper hand vs governments.

“Bankers have got Europe’s governments in their pockets, primarily because politicians cannot change the way lenders do business without undermining confidence in sovereign debt,” says Chris Skinner, chief executive officer of Balatro Ltd.

Furthermore, investors do not seem convinced on the severity of the stress test exercise that tested 91 European Banks last July.

“The stress tests weren’t severe enough,” says Julian Chillingworth, who helps manage $21 billion at Rathbone Brothers Plc, an investment firm in London.

“Many bond investors aren’t convinced the Greeks are out of the woods.” And if the Greeks haven’t emerged from their crisis yet, then neither have the European banks that hold their debt.

http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=1041957

[Demeter]

32. AND It's Short-Term debt, Which Will Roll Over

bringing the next set of convulsions to the credit markets.



If the Greeks defaulted, we could all get off the rollercoaster and deal with the crash.

It's an age old question? How do you get off the tiger you are riding, without getting eaten?

You gotta shoot that puppy dead, first (or kitty, rather). And brace for the crash.

[Roland99]

56. Greek Deals Hidden From EU Probed as 400% Yield Gap Shows Doubt

Greek Deals Hidden From EU Probed as 400% Yield Gap Shows Doubt
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-07/greek-debt-deals-hidden-from-eu-probed-as-400-yield-gap-shows-bond-doubts.html

Four months after the 110 billion- euro ($140 billion) bailout for Greece, the nation still hasn’t disclosed the full details of secret financial transactions it used to conceal debt.

“We have not seen the real documents,” Walter Radermacher, head of the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat, said in a Sept. 2 interview in his Luxembourg office. Eurostat first requested the contracts in February.

Radermacher vows new toughness when officials from his staff head to Greece this month to come up with a “solid estimate” of the total value of debt hidden by the opaque contracts. “This is a new era,” he said.

Greece is the only euro country that lied about using these complex swap contracts after Eurostat told countries to report them in 2008, Radermacher, 58, said. It also likely signed a greater number of individual agreements than any other euro member, based on information it has provided to Eurostat, he said. Greece’s debt was 115.1 percent of its total economic output last year, second among the 16 counties that share the euro, behind Italy’s 115.8 percent.

[DemReadingDU]

59. Greece is the only euro country that lied about using these complex swap contracts???

More likely, Greece is the first country to be caught in the swap web of corruption.

[Ghost Dog]

12. Nikkei slips after rally, more resistance seen

TOKYO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average fell 0.8 percent on Tuesday, dented by profit-taking after four days of hefty gains and as the yen's strength shows little sign of abating.

For a second straight day the benchmark managed to hold above its 25-day moving average, which had served as resistance for most of last month, but it struggled to convincingly snap its downward trend, with further resistance lying ahead on technical charts.

Market players were also keen to see how Wall Street reacts after U.S. President Barack Obama proposed to rebuild U.S. infrastructure with an initial $50 billion investment and prepared new business tax cuts. U.S. stock futures SPc1 were down 0.3 percent after markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day.

"The yen's strength hasn't gone away, and there's really no reason to buy Japanese stocks at this point. The Bank of Japan is out of cards and it's about time the government took charge, but its focus appears to be on (the ruling Democratic Party's) leadership election on Sept. 14," said Kazutaka Oshima, president of Rakuten Investment Management.

"But extreme pessimism about the U.S. economy has receded, and the news about Obama's plan is an additional positive factor that could push up U.S. stocks and yields."

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTOE68605B20100907

[ozymandius]

5. Brief morning for me -

I have a paper due for a history course. I'll take my leave to work a bit while it is still quiet around the house.

Have a good morning and a wonderful day. :donut: :donut: :donut:

:hi:

[Festivito]

6. Debt: 09/02/2010 13,442,057,367,029.28 (UP 15,253,993,617.26) (Thu)

(Up some. Good day.)
Pulled over for dice. Cold, wet windy. Drunkenness. Dying.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,933,215,951,978.85 + 4,508,841,415,050.43
UP 8,773,043,668.95 + UP 6,480,949,948.31

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.75 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,005,408 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,360.72.
A family of three owes $130,082.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 6,051,279,484.99.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,841,023,587.99.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,684,861,536.76.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 232 reports in 337 days of FY2010 averaging 6.60B$ per report, 4.55B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 871 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/02/2010 13,442,057,367,029.28 BHO (UP 2,815,180,318,116.20 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,532,228,363,517.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,659,535,171,168.81 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon
08/31/2010 +077,584,457,403.73 ------------**********
09/01/2010 -002,618,329,750.58 --
09/02/2010 +008,773,043,668.95 ------------*********

146,146,207,290.34 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4527430&mesg_id=4527447

[Festivito]

64. Debt: 09/03/2010 13,435,343,171,187.87 (DOWN 6,714,195,841.41) (Fri)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Flat tire, low tire. Pipe break. Little sleep.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,933,281,399,898.44 + 4,502,061,771,289.43
UP 65,447,919.59 + DOWN 6,779,643,761.00

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.68 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,012,054 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,338.13.
A family of three owes $130,014.39. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,571,056,418.20.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,456,845,134.56.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,313,075,936.67.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 233 reports in 338 days of FY2010 averaging 6.55B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 870 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/03/2010 13,435,343,171,187.87 BHO (UP 2,808,466,122,274.79 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,525,514,167,676.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,647,374,766,869.16 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon
08/31/2010 +077,584,457,403.73 ------------**********
09/01/2010 -002,618,329,750.58 --
09/02/2010 +008,773,043,668.95 ------------*********
09/03/2010 +000,065,447,919.59 ------------*******

146,500,484,426.22 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4530522&mesg_id=4530541

[Roland99]

7. Futures: - Summer fun is over

S&P 500 1,096 -7.20 -0.65%
DOW 10,376 -60.00 -0.58%
NASDAQ 1,858 -9.00 -0.48%

Everyone hung over? This thread is awfully quiet today. :)

[Tansy_Gold]

9. Not hung over

struggling to get back into "work" mode.

:hi:

[Dr.Phool]

14. I wish I was hung over.

No alcohol in over a month, and eating shit like veggies and fish. It's called a "diet". And pain medication. I'm having a fucking Big Mac Attack, and Stoli's stock is plummeting.

A good hangover would feel nice right about now.

[Demeter]

18. Be Brave, Doc

You are doing the right thing. No matter how much it goes against your basic male instincts....You will have to find non-dietary compensations. Good luck with that!

[Roland99]

19. I caved yesterday

had a black and tan with some fish and chips.

[DemReadingDU]

22. black and tan

those are the colors of my beagle!

[TalkingDog]

29. Doc, if you keep thinking of it as a diet then it's doomed to failure from the outset.

My Mister had to change his eating habits. Okay, I made him change his eating habits.

I suspected he had food allergies that were causing him all kinds of problems: eczema, a chronic nail fungus. Once we nixed 2 or 3 items (wheat, diary being the main two and HFC sweetener as a major contributor)he lost 20 lbs in a couple of months, without even trying. He now weighs less than he did in high school (with NO DIET)which is about 40 lbs overall.

We call it the caveman diet. Lots of veg, nuts and whole fruit, some whole grains and dried fruit, and meat. And butter...lots and lots of butter. Because, you know what? As it turns out, butter vs olive oil (for men) is not as problematic as one might think. (and when I say lots and lots, I'm exaggerating, but relative to what is considered "healthy", some people think we eat a lot of butter) http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100209124352.htm

He eats several times a day(grazing when he's hungry) and his job mandated health assessments always rank him as at least 8 to 10 years "younger" than his actual age. He is in very good physical condition and takes NO medication for blood pressure, cholesterol, etc, which are common drugs for someone his age.

That doesn't mean he can't have chocolate cake, or a bit of cognac. It does mean he can't have it every day. If he has wheat more than twice in a week, his eczema flairs. If he eats dairy, he gets a headache.

In economic terms eating everything you want when you want it, is equivalent to deregulation. Too much restriction in trade and finance leads to stagnation (death or low energy) and discontent from the populace who then rebel. (in other words: the Dr. Phool that wants a beer and the Dr. Phool that wants a bacon burger with sour cream, find a way to enlist your aide in the rebellion)

What you might try, for the sake of your overall "economy", is judicious oversight and regulation. Start considering "treats" as that. Something that is not commonly available.

You will be happier, the Dr. Phool Nation will be happier and if you can stick it out long enough to "get in the habit" of living this way, you can stop calling it a diet.

[Roland99]

34. Today I am 4 weeks and 1 day soft drink-free and aspartame-free!

[TalkingDog]

42. the first week is hell, the second purgatory....

after a month you wonder what all the fuss was about....

I still like fizzy sweet drinks on occasion. I try to stick to sugar based (there are local soft drinks and the ones from Mexico), but that's usually a comfort food thing: tummy troubles or a specific meal (hot dogs HAVE to have soda....that's just how it is. luckily that's only once or twice a year)

you've made it through the hardest part. the second hardest part is recognizing when you are slipping back toward the bad habit....

[Roland99]

43. Had a big test this weekend!

2 long days at the parks at Disney. I ended up having Hi-C fruit drink a couple of times but then I remembered they have hot water and tea bags! :)

[Dr.Phool]

46. My wife started buying flavored seltzers.

No sweetener, just some fruit flavor and carbonation. Made by a brand name called Polar. Not bad.

[Dr.Phool]

44. It's having the desired effect.

My BP is in the low normal range. It used to be through the roof.
I'm under 200# for the first time in years. Minus 20 lb total, and 10 lb recently. I've allowed myself a couple of light beers during football games. Other than that, it's fruits and veggies, minimal meat, and a little seafood. Water, and flavored seltzer.

[TalkingDog]

47. Good. Moderation in all things, as they say. (on edit)

Diets are "doomed" to fail, because inevitably you go off a diet. Or the diet simply becomes they way you eat.

It sounds like semantics, but thinking about it as a change in habit is somehow more concrete and permanent.

It's sorta like saying: I'm going on a smoking diet..... when really you are going to permanently stop doing something that's bad for you.

[DemReadingDU]

60. Excellent!

That's basically what we eat at our house. We're into nuts too. Unsalted.
And we buy the peanut butter that needs to be stirred, yummy!
Except spouse thinks the entire can of nuts or jar of peanut butter is the serving!
We're working on portion size.

:P

[Roland99]

20. U.S. tech firms shop abroad to avoid taxes

U.S. tech firms shop abroad to avoid taxes
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/09/05/BUHI1F8C8F.DTL

U.S. technology companies are in a bind. Much of their cash is parked abroad and they risk higher taxes if they bring profits from overseas back home.

They have joined other U.S. businesses in lobbying for a tax holiday for repatriated earnings, and with no prospects of success in the near term, they're looking for something to do with that money.

"We should see more tech cross-border acquisitions because of the cash trapped abroad," said Drew Guevara, who runs Morgan Stanley's West Coast technology investment-banking group in Menlo Park.

...


Cisco has $30 billion of its $38 billion in cash parked abroad because of higher U.S. taxes, he said. The San Jose company has spent $22.2 billion on 87 acquisitions in the last 10 years; 11 were outside the United States. Its biggest overseas deal was the $3 billion purchase last year of Norwegian videoconference equipment maker Tandberg.

[Demeter]

61. contemptable Cheapskates

Afraid of paying taxes to the nation that gave them birth and support.

[DemReadingDU]

24. Jim Puplava at Financial Sense interviews Stoneleigh

9/4/10 Jim Puplava at Financial Sense interviews Stoneleigh

Preparing For and Learning to Survive the Coming Perfect Storm

With: Nicole M Foss
With: Antony Froggatt PhD

Nicole Foss: Nicole M. Foss is co-editor of The Automatic Earth, where she writes under the name Stoneleigh. She and her writing partner have been chronicling and interpreting the on-going credit crunch as the most pressing aspect of our current multi-faceted predicament. The site integrates finance, energy, environment, psychology, population and real politik in order to explain why we find ourselves in a state of crisis and what we can do about it. Prior to the establishment of TAE, she was previously editor of The Oil Drum Canada, where she wrote on peak oil and finance.

Her academic qualifications include a BSc in biology from Carleton University in Canada (where she focused primarily on neuroscience and psychology), a post-graduate diploma in air and water pollution control, the common professional examination in law and an LLM in international law in development from the University of Warwick in the UK. She was granted the University Medal for the top science graduate in 1988 and the law school prize for the top law school graduate in 1997.

On this week’s Financial Sense Newshour, Nicole lays out her ominous thesis of a coming deflationary depression, made worse by peak oil. Nicole believes that the depression will cause demand for energy to go down, creating further energy shortages and less and less economic growth.

Dr. Antony Froggatt: Antony Froggatt is a Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House. He has worked on international energy and climate issues for over 20 years providing research and information for a wide range of bodies including companies, governments, the media, non-government organizations and international organizations and has published over 50 reports and papers.

On this week’s Financial Sense Newshour, Dr. Froggatt discusses his latest research white paper, “Sustainable Energy Security” with Jim Puplava. Dr. Froggatt makes the assertion that businesses which prepare for and take advantage of the new energy reality will prosper, but failure to do so could be catastrophic. He also mentions that the world is heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike.

Click this link for the download to the audio
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2010/09/04/02/nicole-foss-jack-spirko/preparing-%2526-learning-to-survive-coming-perfect-storm


Click 'TAE' for a transcript of this audio
Also note the upcoming presentations that Stoneleigh will be giving in Michigan
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/09/september-4-2010-jim-puplava-interviews.html

[DemReadingDU]

26. Alex Smith at Radio Ecoshock interviews Stoneleigh

Another Stoneleigh interview for you, this one recorded yesterday, September 6, 2010, for Radio Ecoshock by Alex Smith in British Columbia.


Two versions

http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/economy/ES_Stoneleigh_LoFi.mp3

Higher quality
http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/economy/ES_Stoneleigh.mp3

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Po_d Mainiac]

37. More hedge fund bullshit

So it goes in the rough-and-tumble new world of bankruptcy court. The bankruptcy process was created decades ago as a way to give ailing businesses a chance to heal and creditors a shot at repayment. Hedge funds and other big investors have transformed it into something else: a money-making venue where, after buying up distressed companies' debt at a deep discount, they can ply their sophisticated trading techniques in quest of profits. The "bankruptcy exchange," some call it. :puke:

more at link

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703309704575413643530508422.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories

[Roland99]

41. Gold hits new high - $1,259.30

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-hits-record-closing-high-on-nymex-2010-09-07

[Demeter]

62. Some fools are still waiting for that "correction" in gold

it ain't gonna happen until everything else collapses...

[Roland99]

49. 3:30pm - Triple digits of non-fun

Dow 10,342 -106 -1.01%
Nasdaq 2,209 -25 -1.13%
S&P 500 1,092 -12 -1.12%
GlobalDow 1,851 -20 -1.04%
Oil 73.81 -0.79 -1.06%
Euro /$1US 1.2690 -0.0183
$1US / Yen 83.7400 -0.4200
Pound / $1US 1.5363 -0.0029
Aud / $1US 0.9118 -0.0050
10yr T-note 2.60 -0.11
2yr T-note 0.49 -0.03
Gold 1,259 +8 +0.62%

[hamerfan]

51. K & R!

Lots of good info in today's SMW. Thanks for sharing, everyone!
hamerfan

[Joe Chi Minh]

52. Hilarious TV news clips just now of a massive 'general strike' demonstration

in Paris because Sarkozy wants to raise the retirement age from 60 to 62. And the French are incandescent!

Shots of the politicians gibbering about the deficit, and likewise the on-the-spot commentator, which means only one thing in Establishment parlance: cuts. Not a word about raising taxes on the rich. Not that the French 'richissimes' wouldn't already feel hard done by!

The commentator concluded to the effect that if the govt can't get through this retirement bill, it will not be able to enact any of its austerity measures!

"Allons enfants de la Patrie. Aux armes, citoyens!"

[Roland99]

55. SEC Considers Rules for High-Frequency Traders After Plunge

SEC Considers Rules for High-Frequency Traders After Plunge
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-07/sec-weighs-new-rules-for-high-frequency-traders-after-may-6-market-plunge.html

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro said her agency may impose new rules on high-frequency traders after lawmakers and investors questioned whether market participants who execute thousands of transactions in seconds sparked the May 6 plunge.

The SEC should consider whether traders with the “best access” to markets should be obligated to buy and sell stocks to preserve liquidity, Schapiro said today in a speech at the Economic Club of New York. The agency is also examining whether stock quotations should have to stand for a minimum amount of time. Such a change would stop high-frequency traders from repeatedly placing and canceling orders in milliseconds.

“Some could argue that May 6 was an aberration -- another perfect storm -- and now that it has passed markets have naturally adapted leaving no need for a comprehensive review of our market structure,” Schapiro said. “I disagree.”

...

Lawmakers including U.S. Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, have argued that high-frequency traders pulled out because they face no obligation as market makers to buy and sell shares during periods of market stress.

[Roland99]

57. Reactions to Obama's Business Tax Break

Reactions to Obama's Business Tax Break
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/reactions-to-obamas-business-tax-break.html

From Goldman Sachs on the "small effect":

To the extent it does have an effect, it is likely to pull forward demand into the quarter just before expiration (in this case Q4 2011) so the near-term effect should be even more modest ...

From Professor Greg Mankiw:

"The impact will be relatively modest. Notice that expensing merely accelerates deductions. Thus, the value to the firm depends on interest rates. With interest rates near zero, the impetus to investment is small. Put another way, this policy can be seen as giving firms a zero-interest loan if they invest in equipment. But with interest rates near zero anyway, the value of the loan is not that great.”

This is basically a large sounding proposal ($200 billion) with little impact. With excess capacity in most sectors, why do we want to incentivize companies to invest anyway? And as Goldman notes, most of the modest impact will probably be in Q4 2011.