Poll: Clear GOP advantage ahead of midterms

[onehandle]

Source: MSNBC

A combination of sky-high GOP enthusiasm, a deep sense of pessimism about the country’s direction and dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama's stewardship of the economy has given Republicans a clear advantage heading into the November midterm elections, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. With the Labor Day holiday marking the traditional starting point of the campaign season, Republicans have a nine-point edge among those considered likely voters, plus a near 20-point lead among those expressing the highest amount of interest in the midterms.

In addition, six in 10 believe the country is on the wrong track; nearly two-thirds think the nation is in a state of decline; and a similar number aren't confident that their children’s generation will enjoy a better life. Perhaps more ominous for Democrats, the number of Americans who approve of Obama's handling of the economy — the top issue in the country — has declined below 40 percent for the first time.

“We all know that there is a hurricane coming for the Democrats,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “We just don’t know if it will be a Category 4 or a Category 5.”

The survey shows that among likely voters — based on their interest and past voting history — 49 percent prefer a Republican-controlled Congress while 40 percent want one run by Democrats. Among those expressing a high interest in voting, that GOP lead increases 18 points, 53 percent to 35 percent.

Read more: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38996574/ns/politics

[babylonsister]

1. Yea, we know, "the media" is having orgasms over this. nt

[ananda]

2. It WILL get worse.

That's for sure.

[DainBramaged]

3. Fuck the MSM

and I mean fuck them all

[driver8]

8. +1!

They wouldn't know the truth if it bit them in the ass -- lazy motherfuckers.

[cyr330]

17. Love your cat picture!!!

It is really hilarious! It reminds me of my dog with her tooth. . . :)

[DainBramaged]

22. He's one-eyed and angry, me too!

:hi:

[MadMaddie]

27. Yup!

They are pushing this garbage as if it's facts. Their polls have never been reliable or trustworthy.

[RandomThoughts]

4. They will pay. Who do you claim to think they is?

[RamboLiberal]

5. And Gallup has them back tied at 46% today

Republicans and Democrats are tied at 46% among registered voters in Gallup's weekly tracking of congressional voting preferences, marking a shift after five consecutive weeks in which the Republicans held the advantage.

These results are based on aggregated data from more than 1,650 registered voters surveyed Aug. 30-Sept. 5 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. The results reflect more competitive voting intentions than has been the case recently. Republicans' leads over Democrats among registered voters in three of the previous four weeks were the highest Gallup has measured for this midterm election campaign, and higher than any GOP advantage Gallup has measured in a midterm election year since 1942.

Last week marked the return of President Barack Obama from his 10-day vacation, and included his national address to announce the official end of combat operations in Iraq. The president's three-day job approval rating rose to 47% for Aug. 29-31 -- a level it had reached only once since mid-July. Last week also brought media commentary in the aftermath of conservative talk-show host Glenn Beck's massive rally in Washington, D.C. It is not clear if these or other factors affected Americans' voting preferences as measured by the generic ballot.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

[Dawson Leery]

6. The corporate media is trying to make this election a done deal for

their preferred party, the GOP.

[FrenchieCat]

7. It's so obvious, even a blind man can see it, and a deaf one can hear it.......

The media is dangerous and unpatriotic. They care about his country about as much
as the next piece of toilet paper they'll use.

[still_one]

10. They don't want regulation, and they are pissed that controls are being introduced

The Democrats have to come out everyday until the election and inform the public what the republican party has become

It is the party that wants to destroy social security and medicare. It is the party that doesn't believe a person has the right to privacy. It is the party that doesn't want unions. It is the party that doesn't want regulation, and the party that wants to destroy labor

It is the party that believes racial profiling should assume a person is illegal if they are not the right color

It is the party that is that wants to put the corporations in control of the government

[savalez]

12. Yup, they are trying to fool us into not voting. I aint fooled.

[Grassy Knoll]

14. Exactly.....

Besides I only pay attention to one pole.....

[savalez]

28. lol

[johnnyrocket]

9. I've never saw headlines like this for the Dems...

..when they swept the last few cycles, it was hardly news. No great narrative. The Dems just took over, matter of fact. They are really pushing this Dem bloodbath story.

[still_one]

13. The corporations are already dangerously close to controlling the government

they want to insure it is absolute

The same polls only a short time ago acknowledged that it was the republicans who got us into the financial mess we are in

Something doesn't make sense

I know some of the polls assume republicans have better turnout numbers then Democrats, and they usually put that weighting in the polls

We could show them what clowns they are if progressives turn out in large numbers to vote, especially the young

[alstephenson]

11. "based on their interest and past voting history"...

So "likely voters" aren't self-identified? They are classified as such by the pollster? This poll stinks.

[HankyDubs]

15. with all due respect to older people here

Really not trying to be nasty and ageist, but I thought I would point out that these polls are not representative of the voting population that uses cellphones exclusively. This leaves younger people dramatically under-represented.

I heartily agree that the media has been pushing and pushing this story to help drive down democratic turnout. For my part it makes me even more determined to vote.

[robcon]

26. The poll has a long and credible history.

Where the "likely voters" come from is the key to many elections.

[Quantess]

16. The nation IS on the wrong track, and we ARE in a state of decline.

But that's not because of anything Obama has done. Obama hasn't done enough to undo the damage caused by Bush.

Get Republicans back in control, and things will get even worse.

[LawnKorn]

18. .

It is September 7

Not one vote has been cast for a Republican

Not one Democrat has lost a seat

The way to show the MSM that they are fools is to get more Democrats to the poll than the other guys

[CLANG]

19. Yeah, and fuck the fucking fuckers!

[bergie321]

20. Is this kind of like

Anti-incumbent fever? Where 7 incumbents have lost primaries?

[DesertDiamond]

21. My concern is this is clearly the next in their long line of smokescreens 2 conceal stolen elections

[PSPS]

23. Story somewhat slanted. But remember the media needs a horserace to get eyes and sell ads.

Given Obama's track record to-date, I won't be surprised if the midterms are completely botched by his complete lack of leadership. Nevertheless, the M$M will do anything to make this a horse race, even pay extra for "the right poll numbers" to make this at least look nail-biting close for the sole purpose of pumping up interest and charging more for advertising.

Who knows? Between stories like this designed to set expectations and genuine voter defection and fiddling with vote counts and wholesale voter caging in Arizona and elsewhere, they may get their "more business friendly" congress after all.

[earcandle]

24. I say this is bull dung reporting. What do you say?

[savalez]

29. I say bull dung is the appropriate term in this matter.

[No Elephants]

25. "Sky high Republican enthusiam," or bat shit, racist Teabaggers? Potato, potato.

[struggle4progress]

30. Such numbers are always unreliable. You can find recent polling at TPM

5 September: Rasmussen has Ds behind Rs 36-48; CNN has Ds and Rs tied 46-46
2 September: CNN has Ds behind Rs 45-52; ABC/WaPo has Ds behind Rs tied 40-53
31 August: YouGov/Polimetrix has Ds leading Rs 43-37

The election will be determined by who votes

[struggle4progress]

31. Similarly, let's look at recent US party identification polling, tracked at TPM

2 September: Fox: 39D 20I 37R
26 August: Newsweek: 36D 27I 32R
11 August: Fox: 38D 17I 40R
9 August: PPP: 39D 25I 35R

That looks like continuing rather stable division of the electorate to me