New information emerges on post-9/11 hunt for bin Laden

[underpants]

Source: CNN

(CNN) -- Western intelligence agencies were able to form a detailed picture of Osama bin Laden's movements in the years after 9/11, and came closer to capturing or killing him than has so far been acknowledged, a former European intelligence official has disclosed.

The former official said that in the period after bin Laden left Tora Bora, under pressure and on the run, he and his lieutenants were little able to communicate with each other. But gradually, al Qaeda restored its communications and was able to resume meetings.


In a high-stakes game of hide-and-seek, Western intelligence agencies were always playing catch-up as bin Laden moved from location to location. Tantalizingly at one point, according to the former official, information about his exact location was only one week old. But the intelligence stream on bin Laden's movements never resulted in what is known as "actionable intelligence" that could have led to his capture or assassination.

After 2004 the intelligence stream dried up, according to the former official, who did not elaborate why. But he said that despite the setback, information on al Qaeda's leaders' movements never completely dried up; and recent intelligence suggested bin Laden and al-Zawahiri were still in close geographic proximity and able to communicate with each other.


Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/09/14/pakistan.afghanistan.osama/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_cnn

[Shining Jack]

1. K&R

[cosmicone]

2. Very simple reason

why bin Laden cannot be captured. He is a Pakistani ISI asset and if captured, would spill beans that would lead to the destruction of Pakistani ISI's terrorist capabilities and the military's weaponization. The sooner we understand that Pakistani ISI, Taliban and Al Q'aeda are for all practical purposes one and the same organization, the sooner we will capture bin Laden. Someone who is abnormally tall, needs diabetic supplies and dialysis regularly while walking around with a $25 million bounty on his head cannot hide without the support of the state.

Hillary Clinton alluded to this in one of her speeches in Pakistan. http://www.aolnews.com/article/clinton-presses-pakistan-for-osama-bin-laden-whereabouts/19561656
Unfortunately, we still do diplo-speak, i.e. "elements in Pakistani government are responsible" etc. when we know that said elements comprise over 80% of the establishment.

<snip>

An Unholy Trinity

Ties between Pushtun commanders and Pakistani ISI operatives had continued without a break since the departure of Soviet troops in 1989. With the rise of the Taliban in 1994, these links included contacts with scores of Arabs and other Muslim nationals who had either remained in Afghanistan after helping their Afghan brothers defeat the Russians, or returned from abroad when civil war broke out among the Afghans after 1992. Among those returning was Saudi millionaire Osama bin Laden, who had fought against the Russians and generously helped finance the holy war (jihad) out of his own personal fortune. In 1996 he returned to Afghanistan from Sudan, forced to leave that country under U.S. pressure. The motivations for these ongoing connections among the Taliban, ISI and bin Laden made for an interesting case of "I scratch your back if you scratch mine"-- or, as I prefer to view it, an "unholy trinity."

By 1996, small Arab groups in Afghanistan had linked up with the warring Taliban, cemented ties with Pakistani religious radicals, particularly groups associated with the Jamiat-e-ulema-Islam, a political party closely allied with the ISI. The purpose for Pakistan was to unleash an uprising against Indian-occupied Kashmir, long contested by the two subcontinent rivals. Guerrillas for Kashmir were recruited from the same talent pool of JUI seminaries supplying young fighters for the Taliban against the Northern Alliance.

To avoid Indian detection, the ISI conducted much of the training for its Kashmir campaign in Afghanistan, with the cooperation of the Taliban. In turn, several camps were placed under bin Laden's control for the use of the terrorist network he was creating for his own longer term goals: to force the United States out of the Middle East, in particular Saudi Arabia, home of the Islamic shrines in Mecca and Medina. It was those bin Laden camps that the U.S. hit with cruise missiles in 1998, in an effort to destroy the Saudi radical and his terrorist allies after they had been linked to the bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Unfortunately, the camps were virtually empty when the missiles hit, although a dozen Pakistani nationals were killed.

</snip>

http://www.afsa.org/fsj/Dec01/schiff.cfm

[Alcibiades]

10. +1

The other possible reason that they have not had any good intellegence on his whereabouts since 2004 is that he's dead.

[pasto76]

15. unlikely he's dead

I speculate the removal of special forces and UAVs from that theatre in 2003, preparing to invade iraq, was the critical move that diminished our intel capabilities. The theory that he is a pakistani intelligence operative is worth considering. The social-religious-political web over there is vast, and amazingly intricate.

Another thought is that if he were dead, he would have become a martyr by now. Something along the lines of "look, he attacked the US and they never caught him because he was so smart and brave".

[Alcibiades]

16. If he is alive, he's probably in Pakistan

The "theory" of ISI and Al Queda links probably is much more than that. The power of the Pakistani police apparatus is little understood--if they want to get somebody, they get them, so they presumably are protecting him.

[NorthCarolina]

3. A few months before her assassination, Benazir Bhutto stated Bin Laden was Dead.

I believe her.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8120236576648647371#

[Fly by night]

4. I agree. Bin Laden died in 2003, according to Arabic news sources. He's still dead today.

[Evasporque]

6. But the NeoCons need him alive and plotting terror....

It is the basis for Republican economic growth. War and Fear of Terror.

[frylock]

17. the neocons?!

obama and the dems like to use usama to scare us just as readily as the repugs do.

[rosesaylavee]

8. Agreed. Tho they do prop him up to give 'video exclusives' when needed. n/t

[underpants]

18. Dead? So what? That has never stopped us before

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/underpants/18

Some Evidence Suggests Saddam Dead: Bush
Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, April 25, 2003
http://english.people.com.cn/200304/25/eng...
US President Bush said in a television interview Thursday that there is some evidence suggesting Saddam Hussein is either dead or "at the very minimum was severely wounded." Bush also said US troops would remain in Iraq "as long as necessary."

DNA tests after missiles strike 'Saddam convoy'
Sunday June 22, 2003
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/iraq/story/...
American specialists were carrying out DNA tests last night on human remains believed by US military sources to be those of Saddam Hussein and one of his sons, The Observer can reveal.

Officials suspect Saddam was killed in bombing
Posted 4/10/2003
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/20...
WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence has no clear information on Saddam Hussein's whereabouts, but the betting in the Pentagon's executive offices is that the Iraqi dictator lies dead under a pile of rubble in Baghdad, according to defense and intelligence officials.

But the theory given most credence is that Saddam died in Monday's bomber attack on a home near a Baghdad restaurant.
"The official take from the Pentagon is that Saddam is 'unfound,' " a senior defense intelligence official said on condition of anonymity. "Most along the E-Ring (the Pentagon's outermost hallway and executive suite) think he's under the rubble."
A Defense Department intelligence official said an abrupt end to an electronic intelligence intercept of Iraqi leadership conversations indicated that Saddam and his sons were at the site at the time of the bombing.
"The signal died when the bombs hit," the official said.

Saddam Captured 'Like a Rat' in Raid
Sunday, December 14, 2003
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,105706...

Saddam Hussein arrested in Iraq
Sunday, 14 December, 2003, 17:04 GMT
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_ea...
______________________________________________________________
Pentagon: 'Chemical Ali' Killed in Attack
Tuesday, April 8, 2003
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2...

WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon believes "Chemical Ali," Saddam Hussein's cousin who ordered a chemical attack on Kurds in northern Iraq in 1988, is dead, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld confirmed Monday.

'Chemical Ali' reported dead
Monday, 7 April, 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/292...


Officials: Body of 'Chemical Ali' Found in Basra
Monday, April 07, 2003
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,83383,...


'Chemical Ali' Captured in Iraq
Thursday, August 21, 2003
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,95314,...


'Chemical Ali' in U.S. custody
Thursday, August 21, 2003
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/08... /
DOHA, Qatar (CNN) -- Ali Hassan al-Majid, the Iraqi general known as "Chemical Ali," is in U.S. custody, military officials tell CNN.

[FiveGoodMen]

19. "Our top story tonight..."

(from SNL, of course)

[stray cat]

7. Santa clause is alive -now we have a statement as well

Although I prefer facts before I will believe santa.is alive

[Cal33]

5. It has long been suspected that Osama bin Laden was dead.

And a few years ago, shortly before her assassination, the former lady prime minister of Pakistan
also did say that bin Laden was dead.

Whom should we believe? Would our military people do such a thing as keep up stories of
bin Laden's actions as though he were alive, just so that they could justify themselves to the
American public for continuing the war in the Middle East?

[Frisbee]

9. The world needs a boogie-man.

bin Laden is much more useful alive than dead. Even if he's dead.

[Nancy Waterman]

11. How can he not be dead?

Just after 9/11, we saw videos of him, lots of them. Then at some point they stopped, and we haven't seen a video since. Even if he lost his camera, it is not hard to get another one. There have been a couple of audios claiming to be him, but that can be faked. If he were alive, we would see him taunting us in a video. We haven't seen him in years! The only explanation is that he is dead.

[Frisbee]

14. I wouldn't say it's the ONLY explaination...

though you can make a good case for it being the most plausible explanation. My point, however, was only that dead or alive, it is best for the MIC to treat him as being alive, hence my "they need a boogie-man" comment.

[SpeechlessDem]

12. Cheney Murdered Bhutto

Cheney and his assassination hit squad killed Bhutto specifically because she said that Osama was dead.

[CLANG]

13. You state that like it's a fact, when it is really just speculation.

But then again, I never misunderestimate the Evil One.