New Study Shows N.Y. to Lose Two Seats, Florida to Gain Two

[SecularMotion]

Source: CQ

A new study of population figures offers some unexpected predictions on Congressional reapportionment, which will alter the balance of power of different regions of the country based on the 2010 census.

The report by Election Data Services Inc. shows changes to the initial predictions about how many Congressional seats Minnesota, Missouri, New York and Florida will be allotted. The report states that change "was not evident as recently as nine months ago."

Using population estimates released this summer by Esri, a demographic research company, the report finds that Missouri now appears likely to lose one of its nine seats and Minnesota will stay at eight seats instead of losing one. New York is now expected to lose two seats instead of one, with Florida gaining two instead of one. If these predictions hold, both New York and Florida would end up with 27 Congressional districts after 2012.

"We had an inkling of the Minnesota/Missouri switch because both states were right on the edge for that last seat in our 2009 study," Election Data Services president Kimball Brace said. "But we were most surprised at the shift of an additional district out of New York and down to Florida, even though that follows the population movement in this country since World War II."

Read more: http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/reapportionment-estimates-alte.html

[liberal N proud]

1. Many in the northeast moves to Florida when they retire

[Renew Deal]

4. I agree

There's lots of transplanted NYers in Florida.

[Roland99]

5. Or leave the Midwest mid-career as they tire of cold winters

:)

[kenfrequed]

13. Feh...

Maybe Bachmans' railing agaisnt the census were more contrived than I considered. If Minnesota lost a representative to Missouri it would be a tilt towards the conservative side. If Missouri lost a seat to Minnesota, it would probably be towards a mroe urban disrict and a shift more liberal.

Of course she would have had to have party people that knew this in early 2010. Oh wait, the original study was from 2009.

Michele Bachman must go and her district, the most gerrymandered district in Minnesota, needs to be made more rational and not just a weirdly snake shaped paradise for the conservative exurbs to be able to elect hyperconservative lunatics.

[Scuba]

15. +1,000

[Warpy]

6. And a lot of retirees in Florida moved north after 2004

when the state got clobbered by four hurricanes.

I've never understood the appeal of Florida: hot, humid, buggy, flat, corrupt, and a population either older than god or the reddest of the red state rednecks.

[liberal N proud]

7. After 10 years of Cleveland winters

I will take the heat of a Florida summer any day.

[Warpy]

14. I had 20 years of Boston winters under my belt

when I decided I was too old for them and left. I moved to the desert southwest and it's been a great fit, especially here in northern New Mexico, the Democratic part of the state. The air is thin but it's dry and there are few bugs. There is no greater pleasure than sitting out and watching a spectacular western sunset without being surrounded by a fog of insect repellent.

[Dappleganger]

8. There are a few sane people here.

:hi:

Our greatest gift to you is Alan Grayson. Unfortunately, everything else we have tries to cancel him out every day of the week. :(

[Warpy]

9. My parents retired to Florida so I have quite a bit of first hand knowledge

about the state and its problems. Unfortunately, they still haven't come to terms with the amount of damage Jeb Bush and his developer buddies have done to the state, especially to its beaches.

Yes, I know there are good folks there and I've donated to Grayson. However, they're vastly outnumbered.

Then there are the bugs...

[Dappleganger]

11. Bugs are as much a part of the South

as snow is to the North.

I'll take the bugs, TYVM. ;)

[hlthe2b]

2. Crap... more RWers from Florida...

(more likely than not)

[Pab Sungenis]

10. Depends who's doing the redistricting.

If Alex Sink is governor next year, we'll have a fighting chance.

[Dappleganger]

12. "Fighting" being the operative word here.

She'll be busy vetoing crazy teabagger bills.

[Ian David]

3. Global Warming isn't happening fast enough. Sink, Florida, SINK! n/t