Alaska 3 Way Race Suprise Hope for Democats

[Stuart G]

Source: New York Times,

By MICHAEL D. SHEAR
7:15 am November 1, 2010

The three-way Senate contest in Alaska has become a surprise hope for the Democratic Party as the two Republican candidates in the race battle each other.

Like other high-profile contests involving more than two candidates—including Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada—the Alaska Senate campaign has introduced a complicated voter math that has served to befuddle pundits on television and strategists on both sides.

Scott McAdams, the Democratic candidate in Alaska, has long been trailing the official Republican candidate, Joe Miller, and the write-in candidate, Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican senator who Miller defeated in the party’s primary.

But Mr. Miller’s candidacy has faltered in spite of having the backing of the Washington Republican establishment. The Times’ Nate Silver now lists Alaska as the Democrat’s best chance for picking up a Senate seat now held by a Republican. Senator John Cornyn, the Republican from Texas who is heading up the party’s Senate election efforts, expressed concern on Sunday morning.



Read more: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/01/alaska-three-way-is-surprise-hope-for-democrats/?hp

[Uben]

1. Why McAdams might just win.....

...republicans are so stupid, they will just vote for the R on the ticket, no matter what. Those that are a little more intelligent will vote for Murkowski, and that may be just enough for McAdams to win. Fingers crossed.

[chelsea0011]

2. Saying you will write in a name while being polled is one thing.

Actually showing up and doing it is another.

[Lasher]

3. And of course that is the point of the OP

While we can reasonably suppose this might take Murkowski out of contention, McAdams would still need to beat Miller. I don't see that in the polls but I certainly would like to see it happen. There's not been a lot of polling done on this race, so maybe some hope is justified.

[herbm]

4. I bet you $20.00 to the charity of your choice that Miller goes down.

[activa8tr]

5. You're going to be $20 poorer! LOL n/t

[herbm]

6. I called Baylor over UT Satuday. I think the pundits are wrong and the polls are screwy.

I feel lucky.

[Lasher]

10. I don't want to take advantage of your wishful thinking, Mr. Lucky

Hope is a good thing, even against the odds.

[herbm]

11. I'm not particularly lucky. But I can read trends. Sometimes.

[Lasher]

12. Check this out

Republicans Counting on Write-In Lisa Murkowski Over Joe Miller in Alaska


ABC's Jonathan Karl reports: A high-level GOP source tells me that party leaders have essentially given up on Republican Senate candidate Joe Miller and are now banking on a victory by write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski as the best bet for Republicans to keep the Alaska Senate seat.

Murkowski defied party leaders by running a write-in campaign after she lost the Republican primary last month. But with Miller's campaign faltering, the source tells me that Republican leaders are now worried that Democrat Scott McAdams has a shot of winning and that Murkowski may be the only way to stop him.

It's a remarkable turnaround for Murkowski. She was punished by party leaders last month -- unceremoniously stripped of her post in the Senate leadership -- when she refused to bow out of the Senate race and endorse Miller. But she has consistently said she is still a Republican and will caucus with the Republican party if she wins.

The nightmare scenario for Republicans is that McAdams comes in second on Election Day, trailing "write-in candidate." Those write-in votes won't be counted unless there are more write-in votes than there are votes for any candidate on the ballot. Once the write-in votes are counted, however, some of them will inevitably be disqualified (illegible writing, wrong name, etc.). And a small number will be for candidates other than Murkowski. If enough are tossed out, second place McAdams would be the winner.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2010/10/republicans-counting-on-write-in-lisa-murkowski-over-joe-miller-in-alaska.html

[herbm]

13. The press reorts contraversy better than what the real conditions are. I think there is a good chanc

e the upset will be upset. In the short run the tea party gives a short term spark to the GOP while the "leadership" (Rove etc.) figure out how to bury it and wear its mantle at the same time. In long term it hurts the GOP by reinforcing the notion that my party (I am a Republican) is the party of extremists. I would like my party back. Its caused me to vote for Clinton's second term, John Kerry and Barach Obama. And I see no way to vote GOP for national office anytime forseeable. And I've voted for the Democrat for my Senator and Congressman for the last almost twenty years. As for the state, well, I'll never vote for Rick Perry for any office.

I think it ain't over till .... well you know the rest. Thanks for the article. If we can't beat Miller outright, I'll take a procedural win, and failing that 'anybody but' works fine, too.

[Lasher]

14. I wish you would have been right.

But look at the bright side, we've done better than predicted in the Senate and Washington is still up for grabs. Here's hoping the Alaska race doesn't get settled for about 6 years.

[herbm]

15. Well, we ducked some of the worst of it. I am fired up. I cannot believe the margin Grayson lost by.

Its not over. I think that some Republicans are going to get the seriousness of yesterday regarding reasonableness and civility. I think Gov Palin will leave the Republican Party when she doesn't get even close to the nomination. Idon't think she'll be at the convention. I think the teabaggers will implode in two years, that the teabaggers will be shown not knowing poop about thier 'issues'. I bet the tax break for the wealthiest will be allowed to expire and the so-called Republican and the tea-baggers will try to use that issue against the President. And that is what all progressives-including a lot of Republicans- need to work at: Turn back our losses and support the President, starting now......

[sofa king]

7. Whatever the case, it looks like the Murkowski clan is finally on the outs.

Alaska relies almost entirely on federal dollars to subsidize and maintain their heating oil and aircraft fuel stocks, their road network, their electricity grid, the ice-breaking of harbor channels, transportation of foodstuffs through the eight-month winter, and on and on.

Most of the "git tha gummint outa by back yard" population would not survive nine months without the gushing flow of federal aid to them.

It was the Murkowski family that for the past 30 years has boldly maintained the sham that Alaskans are fearlessly independent frontier Republicans, while quietly lobbying year-round for more and more federal dollars to hold their giant welfare state together.

The first step in forcing Alaska to politically reflect its financial and logistical reality is to get the Murkowskis out of Alaska's politics forever.

[No Elephants]

8. Meanwhile Congress tried to help Murkowski by voting to name stuff after corrupt Stevens.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

9. ABC has reported that the GOP has given-up on Miller. It's also reported that GOP supported ads are

now targeting McAdams instead of Murkowski. The third indicator of Miller's fall is the desperate shrillness coming from Sarah Palin in the current news cycle. The Alaska electorate gave Pres. Obama 39%. Scott McAdams can win it.