STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday November 8

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday November 8, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 5, 2010

Dow 11,444.08 +9.24 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,578.98 +1.64 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,225.85 +4.79 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.52 -0.02 (-0.63%)
30-Year Bond 4.12 +0.00 (+0.02%)

---

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

---

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers near $87 in Asia after jobs report

BANGKOK – Oil hovered near $87 a barrel Monday in Asia after a jump in new U.S. jobs suggested demand for crude could improve.

There was encouraging news on the economic front, as the Labor Department reported that employers added 151,000 jobs in October, the first net gain in five months. The unemployment rate remained at 9.6 percent.

The jobs report could signal more improvement in the economy, which could lead to stronger demand from consumers and businesses for fuel. In the short-term, however, improved economic indicators could strengthen the dollar and dampen enthusiasm for oil.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[JDPriestly]

25. The jobs report signals Christmas is coming.

It's seasonal.

[ozymandius]

3. Obama fires back after China slates Fed's QE2

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – President Barack Obama defended the Federal Reserve's policy of printing dollars on Monday during a trip to India, after Chinese officials stepped up criticism ahead of this week's Group of 20 meeting.

The G20 summit has been pitched as a chance for leaders of the countries that account for 85 percent of world output to prevent "currency wars" from spreading to become a rush to protectionism that could imperil the global recovery.

The U.S. has frequently criticized China, saying it deliberately undervalues its currency to boost exports.

Despite U.S. officials repeating the mantra that they believe in a "strong dollar," China says Washington is engaged in the same thing that it stands accused of.

more

Not to worry about all this puffery. Governments always lie about currency. Always.

[Ghost Dog]

47. G20 showdown likely over US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, was this weekend forced to defend the decision to pump an extra $600bn (£372bn) into the ailing US economy over the next eight months in an attempt to accelerate growth. "We're not in the business of trying to create inflation," said Bernanke, to counter criticism that the flood of money will fuel price rises.

As the G20 prepared to meet, campaigners for the Robin Hood tax on financial transactions stepped up their lobbying effort, urging leaders to support the tax, which would help to plug deficits and reduce the need for cuts to public spending.

...

Analysts at Capital Economics said the battle over currencies would overshadow the summit. "In particular, the US will find it hard to put any substance on its proposals for indicative ceilings for current account balances," they said. "We do not think such targets, while a good idea in many respects, would amount to much in practice. But without tangible commitments from the major surplus countries, a lurch towards protectionism and a global trade war will be increasingly likely."

Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Monument Securities, argued the Fed's move to increase quantitative easing was misguided and created more tensions than it resolved."Clueless is apt when applied to a cadre of policymakers whose devotion to text-book solutions is leading, seemingly inexorably, to a rupture in global monetary relations," he said.

"The Fed's current policy is based on the same presumption as its policy in the decade prior to 2007, that the smart thing to do is to filch an advantage that has not been earned. But the G20 meeting next week is shaping up as a showdown that could shake the Bernanke Fed's complacency."

/... http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/07/g20-quantitative-easing-showdown

[Festivito]

4. Debt: 11/04/2010 13,723,439,668,440.18 (UP 4,727,838,535.86) (Thu)

(Up some. Good day.)
Tried e-cigarette.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,135,679,189,836.64 + 4,587,760,478,603.54
UP 2,136,844,217.63 + UP 2,590,994,318.23

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,219.26 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.66, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,630,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,179.29.
A family of three owes $132,537.88. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,616,700,525.40.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,539,470,402.80.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,425,293,938.20.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 275 reports in 400 days of FY2011 averaging 6.59B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 808 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.8 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/04/2010 13,723,439,668,440.18 BHO (UP 3,096,562,619,527.10 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,161,816,637,548.40 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof11 +17,225,851,999,820.00 ------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | per 1B Too much to predict at this time.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/15/2010 +053,297,374,376.50 ------------**********
10/18/2010 +000,841,690,317.23 ------------******** Mon
10/19/2010 +000,443,038,294.93 ------------********
10/20/2010 +001,330,613,152.94 ------------*********
10/21/2010 -003,241,964,507.19 --
10/22/2010 -000,039,023,333.21 ----
10/25/2010 +000,057,456,608.35 ------------******* Mon
10/26/2010 +000,564,111,327.93 ------------********
10/27/2010 +000,111,394,550.30 ------------********
10/28/2010 -000,237,760,056.32 ---
10/29/2010 +010,778,095,157.00 ------------**********
11/01/2010 +063,143,305,537.83 ------------********** Mon
11/02/2010 +000,562,237,098.37 ------------********
11/03/2010 -000,042,244,820.71 ----
11/04/2010 +002,136,844,217.63 ------------*********

129,705,167,921.58 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4601575&mesg_id=4601609

[Festivito]

51. Debt: 11/05/2010 13,723,330,060,510.52 (DOWN 109,607,929.66) (Fri)

(Down a little. Good day.)
I was the third wheel for once, once again.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,135,469,398,688.94 + 4,587,860,661,821.58
DOWN 209,791,147.70 + UP 100,183,218.04

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,219.18 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.66, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,637,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,177.92.
A family of three owes $132,533.75. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,303,364,623.38.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,299,246,211.26.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,192,818,914.12.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 276 reports in 401 days of FY2011 averaging 6.57B$ per report, 4.52B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 807 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.8 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/05/2010 13,723,330,060,510.52 BHO (UP 3,096,453,011,597.44 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,161,707,029,618.80 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof11 +16,747,356,110,936.10 ------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | per 1B Too much to predict at this time.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/18/2010 +000,841,690,317.23 ------------******** Mon
10/19/2010 +000,443,038,294.93 ------------********
10/20/2010 +001,330,613,152.94 ------------*********
10/21/2010 -003,241,964,507.19 --
10/22/2010 -000,039,023,333.21 ----
10/25/2010 +000,057,456,608.35 ------------******* Mon
10/26/2010 +000,564,111,327.93 ------------********
10/27/2010 +000,111,394,550.30 ------------********
10/28/2010 -000,237,760,056.32 ---
10/29/2010 +010,778,095,157.00 ------------**********
11/01/2010 +063,143,305,537.83 ------------********** Mon
11/02/2010 +000,562,237,098.37 ------------********
11/03/2010 -000,042,244,820.71 ----
11/04/2010 +002,136,844,217.63 ------------*********
11/05/2010 -000,209,791,147.70 ---

76,198,002,397.38 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4605902&mesg_id=4605908

[ozymandius]

5. World Bank chief seeks new gold standard debate: report

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Leading economies should consider readopting a modified global gold standard to guide currency movements, said World Bank president Robert Zoellick.

Writing in the Financial Times, Zoellick said a "Bretton Woods II" system of floating currencies is needed to replace the Bretton Woods fixed-exchange rate regime that broke down in the early 1970s.

Zoellick called for a system that "is likely to need to involve the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and (yuan) that moves toward internationalization and then an open capital account."

more

I quite enjoyed Brad DeLong's response to Zoellick's trumpeting.

The last thing that the world economy needs right now is another source of deflation in a financial crisis. And attaching the world economy's price level to an anchor that central banks cannot augment at need is another source of deflation--we learned that in the fifteen years after World War I.

He really may be the Stupidest Man Alive.

I agree. The last thing we need in the midst of a currency war is another currency war.

[Demeter]

17. That Bastard Zoellick

Always ready to lend a hand and make a bad situation worse. He's one of those names (like Chicago) that signal "Trouble with a Capital T".

[xchrom]

6. recommend

[ozymandius]

7. Where The Political Cost? Economy? Or Healthcare?

Obama surprised by political cost of health law

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama says the political cost of overhauling the health care system turned out to be higher than he had expected. And he admits that he gets discouraged at times when dealing with the economy.

In an interview airing Sunday night on CBS' "60 Minutes," Obama said the health care system itself is huge and complicated and that changing it eluded previous presidents because it was so difficult.

Obama said he thought that he would find common ground with Republicans by advancing health care proposals that had been introduced by Republican administrations as well as potential presidential candidate Mitt Romney when he was governor of Massachusetts.

more

Unlike Republican administrations of the past, Institutionalized Crazy had not been part of the party platform before Obama. But on economic issues, Obama evidences how inept some of his economic advisors have been...

Obama: Weak economy drove election outcome

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Big election losses suffered by Democrats were "first and foremost" a reflection of the economy's weakness rather than a wholesale rejection of his policies, President Barack Obama said on Sunday .

"The party in power was held responsible for an economy that is still underperforming and where a lot of folks are still hurting," Obama told the CBS program "60 Minutes" in an interview.

Obama and his aides have been discussing strategy and staff changes as he looks toward his own re-election battle in 2012. But the White House has given little indication of how far-reaching the changes will be.

more

President Obama adds that he assumes that he can work Republican leadership in the next Congress. Question for the president: How many times must you get hit in the head before you realize who's been hitting you?

[Tansy_Gold]

14. I love this.

"...a reflection of the economy's weakness rather than a wholesale rejection of his policies."

Does he not understand -- obviously, he doesn't -- that his policies contributed to the economy's weakness?????

Good goddess, but this stupidity drives me up the fucking wall! It's not just Obama with his deer-in-the-headlights comments. It's the media for not calling him on it, and for not paying attention to those who do.

And I guess I feel even more angry about it because the bunch of pukes who were in charge of the week-end art event I participated in were just as clueless. All the policies the original organizers put in place over the past three years -- and yours truly was one those original organizers -- were thrown out the window in order to make more money for the sponsoring organization. So the artists, for whom the whole organization was founded, got shortchanged but the organization made money. Which is why the PREVIOUS sponsor dropped the event four years ago -- they tried to make more money off the artists rather than support the artists and it didn't work. Post-event meeting is Wednesday. I'll be there.


Tansy Gold, who like Anne and Demeter is angry and frustrated with the rampant stupidity that has no justification for existing

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nc4bo]

34. Hey Tansy, may I interrupt your (very appropriate) rant this morning w/a pleasantry?

I keep picking up bits and pieces of your posts that you are an artist. What are you into, if I may ask?

I'm also an artist, but not a professional one. I was really into oils and may get back to it one day but lately it's been acrylics, watercolors and pastels.

- one of my favorites w/watercolor.

Sorry to go OT in the SMW thread but you've got my curiosity raging like Niagara Falls :)

[Tansy_Gold]

35. check your PM n/t

[Po_d Mainiac]

42. Dat rooster would like what I do with feathers

[ozymandius]

8. Banks Screw Bernanke

From Bloomberg:

Rather than providing money to businesses and consumers, U.S. commercial banks are increasingly using the cash available at interest rates set by the Federal Reserve that are next to zero and lending it back to the government. Since June, the biggest banks bought about $127 billion of Treasuries, compared with $47 billion in the first half, according to the central bank. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding have fallen by about $68.5 billion this year, central bank data show.

While the Fed and Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week they will pump $600 billion more into the financial system through so-called quantitative easing to aid the economy and boost the flow of credit, a growing number of bond investors and strategists say the allure of government debt may only get stronger. New global banking rules will force lenders to hold a greater percentage of capital if they want to invest in riskier securities or make new loans.

The stories about banks putting the screws to the general public run far and deep and wide. Now Bernanke gives himself a dope slap on the realization that banks play for themselves and really don't give a shit about his idealism.

[Tansy_Gold]

13. Bernanke has idealism? Hoocoodanode???

Oh, greed as the ideal maybe?

He knew, and he participated. This ain't no surprise to him, asshole that he is.


What a disgusting little piece of shit.



TG,NTY

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. How did the weekend show go? n/t

[Dr.Phool]

26. Here's the thing about credit.

NOBODY WANTS IT!!!!!

People are trying to pay it down and get rid of it. They're not spending money on goods and services, but paying down debt. Businesses don't need it because they don't have any business, because customers aren't buying. They're tying to pay down their debt load.

[ozymandius]

38. Auerback: Amateur Hour at the Federal Reserve

This is very difficult to excerpt. I suggest you read the whole thing to understand the gestalt of Auerback's message.

Calling out Ben and his toy printing press:

Let’s go back to first principles: Quantitative easing involves the central bank buying financial assets from the private sector – government bonds and maybe high quality corporate debt. In this particular instance, the Fed has announced it will buy $75bn of treasuries a month. So what the central bank is doing is swapping financial assets with the banks – they sell their financial assets and receive back in return extra reserve balances. So the central bank is buying one type of financial asset (private holdings of bonds, company paper) and exchanging it for another (reserve balances at the central bank). The net financial assets in the private sector are in fact unchanged although the portfolio composition of those assets is altered (maturity substitution) which changes yields and returns.

Reserve accounts are not made up of money held in reserve in case a loan goes bad, they are money held at the Federal Reserve for payment settlement. The reserves of money held in case loans go bad are capital. They are not lent out. The way banks actually operate is to seek to attract credit-worthy customers to which they can loan funds to and thereby make profit. What constitutes credit-worthiness varies over the business cycle and so lending standards become more lax at boom times as banks chase market share. But that’s a function of credit analysis (or the lack of it, as the cycle matures), NOT the bank’s reserve positions.

We’ve truly hit amateur hour at the Fed. We’re inciting speculation and the Federal Reserve is acting like the kid in his car seat who keeps turning his toy steering wheel as much as it takes to turn the car. Toy cars, however, won’t get you very far if you plan a long journey, and likewise QE2 is a pretty ineffective vehicle if one wishes to engender genuine economic growth. Eventually, investors will realize they’ve been conned (yet again) by the Fed and the end result won’t be pretty.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/11/auerback-amateur-hour-at-the-federal-reserve.html

This is a lunchtime post. I hope everyone is doing okay. :hi:

[ozymandius]

9. Fraudclosure Fiasco Is Metastasizing

Bloomberg reports that Bank of America is teetering toward the brink. Investors are already voting with their feet. Its stock has fallen 41% in the past six months.

Now the bank may be on the verge of trouble again. Its stock has fallen 41 percent since April 15. Mortgage-bond investors are demanding untold billions of dollars in refunds. The foreclosure fiasco is metastasizing. A member of the Troubled Asset Relief Program’s oversight panel, AFL-CIO attorney Damon Silvers, openly worried at a hearing last week about the risk that Bank of America might need another bailout.

The problem for anyone trying to analyze Bank of America’s $2.3 trillion balance sheet is that it’s largely impenetrable. Some portions, though, are so delusional that they invite laughter. Consider, for instance, the way the company continues to account for its acquisition of Countrywide Financial, the disastrous subprime lender at the center of the housing bust, which it bought for $4.2 billion in July 2008.

Here’s how Bank of America allocated the purchase price for that deal. First, it determined that the fair value of the liabilities at Countrywide exceeded the mortgage lender’s assets by $200 million. Then it recorded $4.4 billion of goodwill, a ledger entry representing the difference between Countrywide’s net asset value and the purchase price.

In short, as the author states, Countrywide's value was recorded on BoA's books at being less than zero.

Nationalization of BoA really needs to be on the table. If the Obama administration and Congressional members off all party stripes bail out a bank so universally loathed and incompetent then political penalties will be exacted. The insurgent Tea Party upsets over establishment Republicans and huge Democratic losses were side effects of the bailouts.

[Demeter]

19. Everybody ready?

:popcorn: :toast:

[hamerfan]

33. Makes me glad

I got my wife to move her accounts out of BOA earlier this year. Now we're both at US Bank. At least it feels a bit safer there.
We travel the USA a bit, and it is nice to have "our" bank where we go to.

[Po_d Mainiac]

44. Bank of New York Mellon Corporation may well be a survivor n/t

[ozymandius]

10. Have a nice day, everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut: Work calls. Anyone game for a BoA deathwatch?

:hi:

[Roland99]

11. Bundle up out there

Hmm...a game of corporate deathwatch. I'm intrigued.

[Po_d Mainiac]

15. Hospice should be all over it.

Wonner if Sheila has told her crew to keep the long Thanksgiving weekend free?

[Demeter]

20. Then there'd be something to be truly thankful for

the beginning of the end of pretending and lying and fraud.

Sheila wouldn't do that to her people! The overtime costs alone would break the agency....

[Po_d Mainiac]

27. Actually, her crew wouldn't know where to start

The only way a TBTF could be dissolved/un-wound/de-fanged/neutered/slayed/etc. would require a one-to-two week (minimum) moratorium on everything but basic cash in-cash out teller operations. Not just BoA'holes, but a systemic lock-down.

No one will have the balls to implement such a move, so it will be up to market forces to start the avalanche.

I'm surprised there has been little said/written about the recent downgrade alerts issues by the rating agencies. Those are actual triggers within the CDS market, and capable of causing a major run on bank collateral via the back door, that dwarfs any conventional image of a bank run.

My guess is TPTB are desperately trying to keep everything gomped together, just long enough to get past the holiday shopping season

YMMV

[Dr.Phool]

31. We just started moving our assets to a credit union.

We've been meaning to for a while.

We've been banking with Wachovia since we've been in Florida. It's right around the corner, plenty of access to ATM's, and everyone we've ever dealt with at the local level has been great.

But, I just don't trust Wells Fargo, or any of the corporate banks anymore. They can hold my mortgage, but that's it.

[Po_d Mainiac]

37. You hit on a good point

By and large the workers (esp. at the local level) are doing their jobs and trying their best to keep the customers happy. They have no control over the echelon establishing the policies that fleece the banks' customer, and commit the fraud. No doubt they can read the Sanskrit however.

I feel for those folks.

But ya gotta CYA.

[AnneD]

12. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: For those folks interested, the sale on all three houses was canceled. We decided not to bid on the other house that was up. We are sticking to unoccupied tax sale houses. We figure we are likely to stand a better shot at a clear title and a better price on the house.

As far as work goes, I did some checking. I will have 22 years at the end of this year. I will have 2 years left to buy back my time at the end of this year. I will be eligible to earn half of my salary as a pension, provided I buy back those 2 years. I am going to be accelerating my buy back and will be looking for a new job after the first of the year.

I went to the Renaissance Festival yesterday and ran into a Nurse that I had helped through the union. She has since retired as of last year. We had a long talk and she told me about some of the ins and outs. She said that as a retired Nurse, a week doesn't go by that she doesn't get a job offer. She said that at this time, she has no desire to go back. She said that once you had enough, you had enough. I told her I had reached my expiration date last year and had hung around this year just to see if it got better. It hadn't. She said I was ready. In a way she returned the favour I had done for her years ago. What goes around comes around.

Well, it is time for me to head out. I can handle whatever comes up because I know in my heart that this problem has an expiration date. I can endure anything for 3 months. Hell, I have done it for years. I am looking foreword to an empty calendar-a chance to own my own time.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Demeter]

21. In Solidarity

hold on, Anne!

[bread_and_roses]

22. I probably didn't write anything, but have followed your posts on job closely

I have been just outraged at the treatment you've endured. I simply can't understand it. When I was raising my daughter, as a working mother, the school-nurses were my best friends. If she got sick at school, they took care of her till I got there. My young grand-daughter is a socially awkward child who in K and 1st half-lived in the RN office, using it as a refuge from the stress of the classroom. I will always be grateful to that nurse for her patience and understanding.

As far as I'm concerned, both RNs and teachers are over-worked and underpaid - we need at least twice as many of both as we have, and they should be paid far better - goddess knows, they are far more important to our lives than the vampire Banksters and Hedge-Funders. One of the few things that tempts me to the "electorate are stupid" (which I don't think they are) stance is that people have allowed themselves to be manipulated into trying to crush the very professionals who do the most for them.

Good luck to you.

[Tansy_Gold]

23. ^^^^ What you said!!

My DIL is an RN, my SIL a teacher, my daughter a school speech pathologist. There's got to be something seriously serious wrong with a society that treats so poorly the people most important to maintaining its, day I say it, collective strength.

:yourock:


TG

[DemReadingDU]

24. and what all above said

Agree wholeheartedly!

[Uben]

30. "Owning my own time"

The absolute best thing about retirement is the control of one's time. All our life we wake up to alarm clocks, live our life around our job, and wait for the weekend so we can try to cram in a little "life" for two days, then back to the grind. Rinse and repeat for thirty years! It's what most of us do, or in my case, did.

For the wife and I, retirement came early. I was 45, she was 49. It was a decision we made after a confluence of events. My wife's breast cancer, surgery, and reconstruction threw our world into a spin. We had just inherited a large sum of money and an a long term investment had just paid off, all in a six month period. We decided to live what time we had left together, every day, come hell or high water. She survived the bout with cancer and has been in good health ever since, despite refusing chemo and radiation that was recommended. She even refused to take the maintenace drugs because of the harsh side effects. That was 8 yrs ago.

Now, we spend our days together, retired. We have a small chalkboard in the kitchen that lists what appointments and events we have that week. We both do work for our charities, she does stained glass, and I work in the yard and take care of what needs to be done.

Not having to live around a job or someone else's schedule is wonderful! No alarm clocks is wonderful!

I wish everyone had the opportunity to do this, but sadly, most won't. It seems such a waste that you have to work until you die, never realizing that dream you had all your working life.

Looking back, we made the right decision to retire early. I strongly suggest anyone who is able to do it. You can live a lot cheaper when you control the time.

[Dr.Phool]

32. Likewise, here.

I got to retire at 49, when my company went under. I got a Railroad Retirement Disability, which pays a decent pension. My wife still works, just to keep us in health insurance, and she loves working with kids at the agency that handles foster care and adoption.

I don't know where I had time to go to work for 31 years. Too much to do otherwise.

[DemReadingDU]

36. I was retired 8 years ago

The IT company handled out thousands of lay-offs that year, but I wasn't quite old enough to get the small pension. At the time, spouse was still working, we had just paid off our house and got the 2 kids out of college and into their careers. Mother-in-law lived with us, and I started taking her to various doctor appointments.

Then it seemed like all the parents started to die off. None were wealthy, so we received very little inheritance. Since then, spouse retired from his union ironworker job, and is receiving nice pension that pays health insurance and other bills, and started receiving social security. I finally was able to start receiving my pension which basically pays incidentals.

Things are okay, but we know when the global financial Ponzi implodes, our pensions will be toast. But spouse has many useful building and repair skills, and I'm doing some gardening and putting up extra food. But I still live by alarm clock, it is set for 5am, prime exercise time.


Edit - We are always busy, never bored. We wonder how we ever had time to work.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. And then there are those of us who will probably never be able

to "retire."

[Demeter]

28. THIS Is Why the US Empire Is In Decline

And we have US business practice to thank.

[Po_d Mainiac]

29. Today's predictions

Looks like Bennie will let the index's bleed a little in order to 'bless' the unwashed with a slight up-tick of the U$D.

After a dip at the open, treading water will be the norm for the rest of the day.

PM's may ignore the lack of action and post a small gain. Au will still want $14k, and Ag can take $27 to the bank.

YMMV

[florida08]

39. Bill Murphy..William Black interviewed

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvaGbb6PNbI

[Roland99]

40. Gold hits $1400/oz. Markets tepid/cool

Dow 11,402 -42 -0.37%
Nasdaq 2,580 +1 +0.03%
S&P 500 1,222 -4 -0.30%
GlobalDow 2,083 -4 -0.21%
Gold 1,403 +6 +0.41%
Oil86.74 -0.11 -0.13%

[MilesColtrane]

41. Are any of the 5 biggest U.S. banks actually solvent?

I guess they continue to meet their debt obligations, but they hold over $200 trillion in derivatives (many times what they actually have in deposits).

Are they just undercapitalized, or are they zombies - dead but still walking around?

[Po_d Mainiac]

43. They are grossly over leveraged and undercapitalized

It shouldn't take too many MBS buybacks to dispel the myth that there is any pulse

[Demeter]

45. 5 Guesses, Miles

:rofl:

[MilesColtrane]

46. I was semi-serious.

I mean, these guys trot out balance sheets every quarter with a straight face.

What is their argument to investors, that profits will quickly wipe away any liabilities?

Taxpayers will keep ponying up with more bailouts?

Magic gnomes will eat the toxic assets and crap money?

[Dr.Phool]

48. It's one of the reasons they tossed the FASB rules.

Not only are underwater first mortgages marked to fantasy, but many have seconds on top of that that are marked as assets at the full value.

That's one way they can present a balance sheet with a straight face.

[MilesColtrane]

52. Thanks Doc.

Not having read up on this particular aspect of the meltdown, I was under the foolish impression that accounting practices had actually been tightened.

I should have known better.

[Po_d Mainiac]

49. #4 is likely the closest

Where their balance sheets leave reality is their asset assessment.

A couple easy examples of which would be:
2nd Mortgages carried at face value
Foreclosed Properties carried at face value

Of a more blatant variety, and one that doesn't even come close to passing a straight face test, is BoA'holes marking the "goodwill" :rofl: from the 'Countrywide' acquisition as a plus.

The FED is desperately attempting to re-inflate the RE bubble because that is the only possible way to stop the chain reaction. The critical mass component has been sitting in the core for a couple years now. It's just a matter of the first cooling tube to melt and the sirens to howl.