STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 19

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 19, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 18, 2010

Dow 11,181.23 +173.35 (+1.55%)
Nasdaq 2,514.40 +38.39 (+1.53%)
S&P 500 1,196.69 +18.10 (+1.51%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.88 -0.02 (-0.83%)
30-Year Bond 4.27 -0.02 (-0.47%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Oil creeps above $82 as traders eye Ireland, China

SINGAPORE – Oil prices crept above $82 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors weighed signs of resolution for Ireland's debt crisis against possible Chinese measures to contain inflation that could slow economic growth and hurt demand for crude.

Investor sentiment improved Thursday amid signs Ireland may accept financial assistance from the European Union to bailout its troubled banking sector. Ireland has nationalized three of its six local banks following a collapse of the country's real estate market.

Fears that Chinese policymakers may implement measures to slow inflation which would hurt economic growth are weighing on crude prices since China has led the world this year in commodity consumption growth.

Some analysts are worried a jump in oil prices could undermine America's fragile economic recovery. For every $10 increase in crude prices, U.S. households spend an additional $25 billion a year to buy the same amount of fuel, Capital Economics said in a report.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

17. You Know, If the "Price" of Oil Is That Jumpy

hat it responds to every little glitch anywhere in the world, then it's not a real price.

A real price is stable, because it can't be done for less.

[ozymandius]

3. Bernanke Answers His Critics

Critics at home, including Republican leaders in Congress and some Fed officials, say they doubt the program will help the economy. They also worry it could do harm — unleashing inflation and leading to speculative buying on Wall Street.

Bernanke argues that the Fed's Treasury bond purchases are needed to promote faster job creation and reduce the risk that very low inflation could turn into deflation. Deflation is a prolonged and destabilizing drop in prices of goods and services, wages and the values of assets like stocks or homes.

Put on the defensive, Bernanke felt compelled this week to meet privately with lawmakers on the Senate Banking Committee to defend the Fed's program. A stream of Bernanke's colleagues have also been out making public appearances to back the Fed's action in recent days. Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and Sandra Pianalto, president of the Cleveland Fed, were on the circuit Thursday.

more

Did we learn anything here about Bernanke's decision that we did not already know?

[Tansy_Gold]

16. "...leading to speculative buying on Wall Street...."

I thought that's what Wall Street was for? :shrug:



TG, NTY

[Demeter]

23. Bernanke to rap China on surplus

China and other developing countries should act to reduce their current account surpluses, US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is to say in a firm rebuff to complaints that the Fed is manipulating the dollar

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/A1TNOO/RNMRYZ/EKRAI/0GQVMN/HD18BJ/LE/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=19

AND HOW EXACTLY IS CHINA SUPPOSED TO DO THAT? BY BUYING THE REST OF THE WORLD? OR JUST THE REST OF THE US?

[truedelphi]

45. Quantitative easing = money printing.

With profits to the money handlers over at Goldman Sachs.

And of course, there are a few benefits - a short spike on certain stock prices just to make sure the News people can say "Look - it helped."

So those who day to day trades on the stock market can score, if they are aware of when this kind of lame game is gonna be played.

[ozymandius]

4. Jobless benefits to expire as Congress debates tax

An extension of jobless benefits enacted this summer expires Dec. 1, and on Thursday, a bill to extend them for three months failed in the House. Democrats brought the bill to the floor under fast-track rules that required a two-thirds vote to pass. Republicans opposed the legislation because they were denied a chance to attach spending cuts, so the measure fell despite winning a 258-154 majority.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., promised to bring the measure back to the floor after Thanksgiving to try to enact an emergency measure that extend benefits at least through the holidays. But Senate Democrats don't have time; instead, they hope the jobless benefits issue gets addressed in year-end negotiations over taxes and other important year-end legislation.

Still, the looming expiration of unemployment benefits could put Republicans on the defensive since they'll expire just as debate peaks in the lame-duck session over whether to extend Bush-era tax cuts on individuals with income exceeding $200,000 or for couples making more than $250,000. The tax cuts expire Dec. 31, and Democrats oppose permanently extending the upper-bracket tax cuts, which would cost about $700 billion over 10 years.

more

[boomerbust]

6. This would be laughable

If it wasn't so serious. Another conservative revolution has begun. How sad.

[ozymandius]

8. The government idiots deserve...

One out of seven people survives on food stamps. Statistically speaking, one in seven voters supported someone in the last election who is hostile to their means of survival. The reason for supporting just such a candidate rests with the sentiment that someone "other" than them does not deserve said benefits; and, somehow, their candidate preaches independence and a pioneering spirit. That is what we hear so much from the empty-headed teabagger rhetoric machine.

There's a big issue with this conservative idealism: this pioneering spirit will cannibalize itself. So I conclude that our national phenomenon known as the Tea Party should rightfully be known as the Donner Party.

[boomerbust]

9. The media

Is ramping up the Sarah Palin slobbering. It's so strange. Did you ever feel like crying and laughing at the same time?

[ozymandius]

11. Yes.

But given her record of quitting, I suspect that she will abort her presidential campaign to send "a very important message" to America's voters when the media scrutinizes her vaporous intellectual fortitude.

If that happens, then I'll reach for the popcorn.

[Dr.Phool]

15. That should be part of the political Lexicon. Donner Tea Party.

[AnneD]

36. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. Guess who can't work today because her blood pressure is at unsafe levels? I think it was the three 911 emergencies running at the same time that did me in-whacha think.

I decided to be useful and volunteer my time to help our candidate in the runoff for the School board. Our teachers actions have been my biggest disappointment. Here we have a run off that can easily be won, that will directly affect their jobs, and folks are sitting on their asses. I phone banked to other union members and God Bless them they said they would get out and vote early. If we save the school board, it will be no thanks to the teachers. It is like they suffer from battered wife syndrome or something. The same goes for the Dem Party.

I have been having some interesting conversations with my Mom. She has been having to deal with Humana over Ron's accident. After extensive research and talking to folks-she has decided to drop Humana like a hot potato and put Ron on Medicare and the VA. Not only is easier and better protection for Ron, the facilities are better and they actually do more for the patents (I am shocked-shock I tell you).

Being the ungrateful daughter that I am, I asked her why she wanted to enroll him in that socialized medicine with universal coverage. Gee won't he get better care quicker with private health care. (I was determined not to let her off the hook on this one.) She said that going through this has opened up her eyes,:think:She couldn't take the word of her daughter that worked in the field that the GOP and Tea party was a lot of hooey and was just a means to divide the middle class so some folks could retain their controlling power.

She is moving like crazy to get things in order before something else happens, like Ron throws a clot and has a stroke. She has pieced an amazing network of good people that are giving her wise council. She is still weak herself, but she is handling it. My brother and I have offered to come up over the Christmas break but she says she is doing ok and she might need us during Spring break. She may have to sell the house because there is no way she can physically or financially do the upkeep. I didn't remind her that I told her to sell the house when the market was at it's peak.:( No point in rubbing salt into the wound. I have told her that the value of her house would continue to drop until the job market picked up. It is now worth less than she paid for it but she has paid so much off. She is not upside down but will not be able to keep the house, especially if Ron dies. She is finally coming down to that reality.

So that I don't stray too much away from the topic of economic, personal or otherwise...I read to stories that were side by side on the site I was reading. The first was the "terror threat" in Namibia. Seem that it was not a terror threat at all , but a security test of the air port security-per the German Government.

The really interesting thing was a story next to it. It was about the problems imposed by the Irish Economy. Which got me thinking:think: do you suppose these are just tests of the system. How many tests do you take until you eventually fail? I was telling mom that when I was in Nursing School, one thing that really stuck was what my instructor called the cascade effect (called the tipping point in other circles) . A body might stand one insult to it's integrity and given enough time recover. But if something happens during recovery, it takes longer to recover. Like water, things start cascading in a downward spiral until what kills the patient is in and of itself not life threatening -but they die any way. During this time I had a beloved patient that fractured her hip. The head Nurse shook her head and said this was the beginning of the end for her. I did not want to believe it, but it was true. Because her platelet count never went up, we could never do surgery to fix her hip. So she did not die of the leukemia, not a hip fracture, but pneumonia.

So folks, we will not be brought down by a plane flying into the Trade Center, we will be brought down by something simple like not passing unemployment extensions, or (for my money) extending the tax cuts. Well any way that is my flaming liberal opinion and I know that and $0.50 won't get you a cup o joe.

Happy hunting and watch out for the mice, the bears are hibernating at the moment.

She has had a bad case of diapered butt syndrome. Folks don't take advice from folks whose butts they once diapered. She is starting

[Roland99]

39. Glad, for your mom's sake.

This type of situation is what I said a few years ago that NEEDS to happen to the whole of the nation. People are going to have to actually experience dire hardship that privatized industries cannot or will not help out with (at least not without an extremely high cost) before they start to wake up and realize what's being done.

[Demeter]

41. Your Mother's House Might Be a Good Rental Property

She might get enough to cover all expenses and a little left over.

It's not an easy thing to do, but in this market, it might be the best thing for her. If the rental market isn't saturated with similar properties, that is.

[AnneD]

46. It is a thought ....

but she lives near Phoenix. The valley is overbuilt. But I guess there is a market for safe houses for illegal aliens, guns and drugs. That is an ideas. I'll talk to her about it.:evilgrin:

[Hugin]

40. Eh, either that or it's an indication of that thing not to be mentioned.

*coff*Election Fraud*cough*

[ozymandius]

5. World shares mixed amid China rate hike jitters

European markets were mixed in early trading. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.1 percent to 5,762.79. Germany's DAX rose 0.2 percent to 6,840.99, and France's CAC-40 was up 0.1 percent to 3,870.31. Stocks in New York were facing a lower opening, with Dow futures down 0.1 percent to 11,167.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average gained 0.1 percent to close at 10,022.39 and South Korea's Kospi added 0.7 percent to 1,940.96. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was 0.2 percent lower at 4,629.2, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.1 percent at 23,605.71.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 22.15 points, or 0.8 percent, to 2,887.60. The Shenzhen Composite Index for China's smaller, second exchange climbed 2.9 percent to 1,297.48.

more

The Philly Fed report that showed renewed manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region moved markets yesterday. Stocks also moved higher from a proposed deal to bail out Irish banks. Then -- we saw an euphoric reaction from the General Motors IPO. Today's futures look to bring faded optimism.

[ozymandius]

7. For the locals: Failed Ga. banks face FDIC threat

Atlanta, GA:

The FDIC has filed civil suits in two failures in other states, and Georgia banking experts and recent court activity suggest the bank regulator is preparing for cases here.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s board has given the green light for lawsuits against at least 70 people nationwide for alleged misconduct such as fraud and breach of fiduciary duty.

Lawyers for the FDIC said in a Nov. 1 court filing the regulator “has authority to file suit” against an unknown number of former bank directors and ex-officers of Duluth-based Haven Trust Bank.

more

This snapshot from the FDIC Office of Audits website is particularly interesting:

Ineffective Board of Directors

Examiners repeatedly identified that Haven’s BOD did not adequately control risk in its loan portfolio. Management deficiencies included (1) a rapid growth strategy coupled with weak underwriting that resulted in a high-risk loan portfolio concentrated in CRE, (2) weak loan policies, (3) ignoring or not fully implementing examiner recommendations, and (4) not complying with laws and regulations. After the January 2008 examination, bank management largely ignored examiner recommendations and continued to grow the loan portfolio until September 2008, long after the real estate market started to decline. Management’s lack of oversight and failure to control risk led to substantial losses and capital and liquidity erosion that accelerated the bank’s deterioration and eventual failure.

Here, you can find the poop explaining why your favorite local bank was closed.

[tclambert]

12. "Ineffective Board of Directors?" But they're all business executives.

And Republicans assure us that all business executives are above average--every one.

[ozymandius]

10. Road map that opens up shadow banking

By Gillian Tett at FT.com

At the top lies a smart section labelled the “Traditional Banking System”, in which a simple flow of boxes explains how investors’ funds are deposited with traditional commercial banks, which then transform this into long and short-term loans, and equity.

The Fed now estimates that in early 2008 shadow banking was $20,000bn in size, dwarfing the $11,000bn traditional banking system. And though this shadow system has now shrunk to a “mere” $16,000bn, this remains bigger than traditional banking, at some $13,000bn. Little wonder, then, that so few people immediately appreciated the significance of the seizing up of shadow banking in 2007.

more at link...

The document (PDF) from the FRBNY contains immense detail including an gigantic flow chart (best seen at 400% magnification) detailing how the shadow banking system works. Supplemental descriptive language distinguishes the difference between the regular banking system and the shadow banking system, including how non-bank entities move money around the world:

Like the traditional banking system, the shadow banking system conducts credit intermediation. However, unlike the traditional banking system, where credit intermediation is performed “under one roof”—that of a bank—in the shadow banking system it is performed through a daisy-chain of non-bank financial intermediaries, and through a granular set of steps. These steps essentially amount to the “vertical slicing” of traditional banks’ credit intermediation process and include

(1) loan origination,
(2) loan warehousing,
(3) ABS issuance,
(4) ABS warehousing,
(5) ABS CDO issuance,
(6) ABS “intermediation” and,
(7) wholesale funding.

The shadow banking system performs these steps of shadow credit intermediation in a strict, sequential order with each step performed by a specific type of shadow bank and through a specific funding technique (for a set of stylized examples, see Exhibit 2).

For me, this exposé comes as a huge surprise given its honesty and the fact that it comes from The Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This is certainly NOT something that is taught in any high school economics class despite the importance that shadow banking plays in the function of the global financial system.

[Demeter]

18. Part of Our Continuing Education Curriculum

Thanks, Ozy!

Either the shadow banking system will collapse or the textbooks will catch up.

I'm betting on the former.

[xchrom]

13. recommend - IMHO shadow banking = an extra set of books.

people used to go to jail for that.

[Demeter]

19. It's More Like "Back Alley Banking"

performed under unsanitary conditions by amateurs and criminals for too much money and with no safety provisions...and it should be either wiped out or regulated in real banks for the health and welfare of the economy.

[xchrom]

22. 'unsanitary conditions'

:spray: very good!

[Festivito]

14. Debt: 11/17/2010 13,789,278,919,702.62 (DOWN 5,855,791,235.87) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Sleep, wake, cough. Repeat.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,205,210,340,121.50 + 4,584,068,579,581.12
UP 670,859,874.97 + DOWN 6,526,651,110.84

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,218.29 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.65, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,724,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,377.87.
A family of three owes $133,133.62. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,363,142,454.20.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,111,742,548.22.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,737,947,771.11.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 33 reports in 48 days of FY2011 averaging 6.90B$ per report, 4.74B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 795 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.9 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/17/2010 13,789,278,919,702.62 BHO (UP 3,162,401,870,789.54 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,227,655,888,810.90 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,731,133,321,166.22 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/27/2010 +000,111,394,550.30 ------------********
10/28/2010 -000,237,760,056.32 ---
10/29/2010 +010,778,095,157.00 ------------**********
11/01/2010 +063,143,305,537.83 ------------********** Mon
11/02/2010 +000,562,237,098.37 ------------********
11/03/2010 -000,042,244,820.71 ----
11/04/2010 +002,136,844,217.63 ------------*********
11/05/2010 -000,209,791,147.70 ---
11/08/2010 -000,059,969,255.93 ---- Mon
11/09/2010 -000,005,858,868.46 -----
11/10/2010 +001,354,516,168.52 ------------*********
11/12/2010 +001,236,686,699.48 ------------*********
11/15/2010 +065,794,144,300.11 ------------********** Mon
11/16/2010 +000,750,562,513.87 ------------********
11/17/2010 +000,670,859,874.97 ------------********

145,983,021,968.96 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4619646&mesg_id=4619662

[Festivito]

47. Debt: 11/18/2010 13,788,455,142,118.05 (DOWN 823,777,584.57) (Thu)

(Down some. Good day.)
What a pile of shredded leaves.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,202,939,173,580.15 + 4,585,515,968,537.90
DOWN 2,271,166,541.35 + UP 1,447,388,956.78

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,218.21 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.65, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,731,392 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,374.19.
A family of three owes $133,122.58. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,198,289,957.59.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,985,355,634.15.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,856,795,774.99.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 34 reports in 49 days of FY2011 averaging 6.67B$ per report, 4.63B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 794 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.9 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/18/2010 13,788,455,142,118.05 BHO (UP 3,161,578,093,204.97 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,226,832,111,226.30 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,689,667,767,297.95 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/28/2010 -000,237,760,056.32 ---
10/29/2010 +010,778,095,157.00 ------------**********
11/01/2010 +063,143,305,537.83 ------------********** Mon
11/02/2010 +000,562,237,098.37 ------------********
11/03/2010 -000,042,244,820.71 ----
11/04/2010 +002,136,844,217.63 ------------*********
11/05/2010 -000,209,791,147.70 ---
11/08/2010 -000,059,969,255.93 ---- Mon
11/09/2010 -000,005,858,868.46 -----
11/10/2010 +001,354,516,168.52 ------------*********
11/12/2010 +001,236,686,699.48 ------------*********
11/15/2010 +065,794,144,300.11 ------------********** Mon
11/16/2010 +000,750,562,513.87 ------------********
11/17/2010 +000,670,859,874.97 ------------********
11/18/2010 -002,271,166,541.35 --

143,600,460,877.31 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4621300&mesg_id=4621352

[Demeter]

20. FBI arrests two former Madoff employees

Two long-time employees of Bernard Madoff were arrested and charged with fraud and conspiracy for their alleged roles in perpetuating a multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme, US authorities said

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/IOCBMM/723VT2/204L2/1892VO/9ZSPNN/HK/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=19


http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9JIPU081.htm

MADOFF EMPLOYEES ARRESTED: FBI agents arrested Joann Crupi and Annette Bongiorno, two associates of Bernard Madoff, on charges they helped Madoff fool investors for decades and made money on the fraud.

CHARGES ABOUND: Both are charged with conspiracy, securities fraud and falsifying records.

SEVERE CONSEQUENCES: Both Crupi and Bongiorno face up to 20 years in prison if convicted of the most serious charges.

[Demeter]

21. ISN'T THAT INTERESTING? Analyst to rival Moody’s and S&P with own rating agency

Meredith Whitney, a Wall Street analyst who shot to prominence with bearish calls on banks before the financial crisis, plans to set up a credit-rating agency to go head to head with Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/IOCBMM/723VT2/204L2/1892VO/PROZ2A/HK/t?a1=2010&a2=11&a3=19

[Demeter]

24. A growing need for food relief

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/20101116_A_growing_need_for_food_relief.html

* Philadelphia has the highest povery rate of any major city, with one out of four people living in poverty. One-third of that population is under 18.

* In September, about 70,700 Philadelphians were unemployed and looking for work. In December 2007, when most economists say the recession began, 39,500 people were unemployed.

* More than 900,000 residents of the Delaware Valley are at risk for chronic hunger and malnutrition.

* In fiscal year 2009, Philabundance distributed 17 million pounds of food in the Delaware Valley, reaching about 65,000 people per week. Of those who rely on Philabundance, 23 percent are children and 16 percent are seniors.

* In 2004-06, the average percentage of the Pennsylvania population that was food insecure - meaning that at certain times they were uncertain of having, or unable to acquire, enough food for the household - was 10 percent. The average rose to 11.8 percent in 2007-09.

Sources: Philadelphia Unemployment Project, Philabundance, USDA Food Insecurity Study 2009.

[Demeter]

25. Food prices may rise by up to 20%, warns UN

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/nov/17/un-warns-on-food-prices

The UN today warned that food prices could rise by 10%-20% next year after poor harvests and an expected rundown of global reserves. More than 70 African and Asian countries will be the worst hit, said the Food and Agricultural Organisation in its monthly report.

In its gloomiest forecast since the 2007/08 food crisis, which saw food riots in more than 25 countries and 100 million extra hungry people, the report's authors urged states to prepare for hardship.

"Countries must remain vigilant against supply shocks," the report warned. "Consumers may have little choice but to pay higher prices for their food. The size of next year's harvest becomes increasingly critical. For stocks to be replenished and prices to return to more normal levels, large production expansions are needed in 2011."

Prices of wheat, maize and many other foods traded internationally have risen by up to 40% in just a few months. Sugar, butter and cassava prices are at 30-year highs, and meat and fish are both significantly more expensive than last year...Food price inflation – fuelled by price speculation, the searing heatwave in Russia in the summer and heavy trading on futures markets – is now running at up to 15% a year in some countries.

[AnneD]

37. Since I am the one...

in four that is employed and my taxes are supporting them....Can I deduct them ad dependents? I am not complaining, but it is the only tax break I can get. I want to propose the poor man's tax cut for congressional consideration. :sarcasm: for those that might be intellectually challenged.

[Demeter]

26. Max Keiser: Irish Govt Slaves To Debt (MAX NAMES NAMES OF CROOKS!)

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article26852.htm

VIDEO AT LINK

[Demeter]

29. Ireland by the Numbers

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article26856.htm

Ireland is home to 8 of the top 10 global technology companies and 15 of the top 25 medical devices firms. We produce enough beef each year to feed 30 million Europeans. 1 out of every 5 burgers served in McDonalds in Europe is Irish beef.

VIDEO AT LINK

[Demeter]

30. Ireland's "Suicide Pact" With the E.U. By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article26855.htm

Ireland could be the next Lehman Brothers. That's what has the markets worried. If Irish leaders refuse to accept a bailout from the EU's new European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), then bondholders will be forced to take haircuts on their investments which will leave banks in Germany and France short of capital. Bonds yields will rise sharply slowing activity in the credit markets. An Irish default will trigger hundreds of billions of dollars in credit default swaps (CDS), which will push weaker counterparties into bankruptcy and domino through the financial system. Contagion will spread to Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy widening bond yields and forcing governments to increase their borrowing at the ECB. Business activity will sputter, unemployment will rise, and growth will shrink. It will be a second financial meltdown.

But no one believes that will happen. Most people think that Ireland will "take its medicine" and spare bondholders any losses. Irish leaders would rather accept a decade of EU-imposed austerity measures and the loss of sovereignty, then leave the euro and start fresh. It's disappointing. The euro is not designed to meet the needs of the smaller, less industrialized countries like Ireland. They need their own, flexible currency to ease the effects of cyclical downturns. But Irish leaders are still captivated by the idea of a united Europe. So they will cast aside the independence they earned through centuries of struggle for a pipedream and the elusive promise of prosperity.

At present, the Irish government is underwriting the toxic debts of its main banks. Unfortunately, those debts far exceed the revenues of the state. According to BBC's Robert Peston, the liabilities are "equivalent to an oppressive 700% of GDP when banking, public sector and private sector debts are added together." So far, the ECB has helped to keep Irish banks operating by providing 130 billion euros of emergency liquidity. But the wholesale markets no longer accept Irish debt as collateral and bond yields are in nosebleed territory. Irish politicians still maintain they have sufficient funds to get through the middle of next year, but that does not include funding for the banks. In fact, if the ECB stopped lending to the banks today, the system would crash overnight.

So the situation is tense and getting tenser. Even so, everyone expects Ireland's Finance Minister Brian Lenihan to cave in and accept a bailout. That will shift all the losses onto Irish taxpayers...If Ireland quits the euro, all hell will break loose. The government will have to issue a new currency knowing that their debts will still be denominated in the higher priced euro. That will increase their debt-load. And, they'll be blocked from the raising capital via the bond markets until they've settled old claims. At best, it would take decade or more to dig out and to reestablish their credibility with the markets. On the other hand, they would have shed the euro straitjacket and reestablished their sovereignty. That's got to be worth something, but how much is it really worth?

..............................

It's time for Ireland to leave the EU and deliver a blow to the ill-conceived Uberstate. In fact, they should have left years ago.

[Demeter]

27. Prime U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures Hit Record as Unemployment Hurts Finances

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-18/prime-u-s-mortgage-foreclosures-rise-to-record-on-unemployment-pressure.html

[Demeter]

28. Editorial: Sticking it to the unemployed

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-unemployment-20101118,0,4893536.story

Washington is poised to stop providing extended unemployment benefits despite the huge number of laid-off workers, the paucity of job openings, the high rate of underemployment in every sector of the economy and stubbornly slow economic growth. That's because Republicans in the Senate insist that, unlike the hefty tax cuts they covet for the wealthy, the comparatively slender subsidies for the unemployed must not be financed with borrowed money. This penuriousness is not just hypocritical, it's bad economics.

The current federal program, which offers up to 73 extra weeks of unemployment benefits to idled workers, is due to expire Nov. 30. If it does, about 2 million unemployed people will have their benefits cut off in December — 411,000 of them in California. Their prospects for finding work remain unusually dim; according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are still five job hunters for every opening.

Unemployment insurance not only helps keep individuals afloat after they're laid off, it counteracts an economic downturn. As economists at the Congressional Budget Office and elsewhere have noted, providing unemployment benefits is a particularly effective economic stimulus because idled workers are likely to spend their benefits rather than save them. According to one study, that spending could support nearly half a million jobs.

The downturn in the economy has been so severe that even the extended benefits haven't bought enough time for many Americans to find work. Four million people are expected to have exhausted their extended benefits by April; with so many cash-starved consumers, spending could fall again next year and dampen the recovery...

SO THIS IS A SLAP AT CALIFORNIA FOR GOING BLUE?

[Ghost Dog]

31. Stocks, Oil Fall on China Tightening Measures; Euro Strengthens

... U.S. equities followed European shares lower after the People’s Bank of China said it will increase the ratio requirement for the nation’s banks by 50 basis points from Nov. 29, according to its website. Optimism that a European Union bailout for Ireland will limit contagion across Europe’s larger debt markets has helped drive the euro higher this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended his monetary stimulus, saying it will aid the world economy.

“There’s heightened awareness of inflationary pressures within emerging markets,” said Hayes Miller, the Boston-based head of asset allocation in North America at Baring Asset Management, which oversees about $50.6 billion. “The worry is that any kind of tightening may have unintended consequences. Any piece of data in the mosaic of inflation in emerging markets is going to be scrutinized heavily. It’s still a risk-on, risk- off story.”

/... http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akIXzWdz8DUI&pos=2

[Ghost Dog]

32. Germans Bail Out Christmas With Biggest Splurge in Six Years

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Just as Germany’s government bails out its European partners, so the country’s consumers are leading the Christmas cheer. Germans will spend 76.9 billion euros ($105 billion) in November and December, 2.5 percent more than last year and the strongest growth since 2004, according to the HDE retail association. Deloitte LLP also said retail spending will rise “slightly,” even as most of western Europe contracts.

“Germany is an island of bliss within a pessimistic Europe,” Peter Thormann, head of Deloitte’s consumer business in Germany, said in an interview. “I haven’t seen this for the last 10 years at least.”

The country’s jobless rate fell to an 18-year low in October, boosting consumer confidence at the start of a quarter when some retailers generate all their annual profit. After a decade where consumer spending barely grew, sales may gain as companies including Porsche SE reward workers with bonuses.

...

In western Europe, where euro-area unemployment is at a 12- year high, only Switzerland and Luxemburg are likely to show stronger growth in Christmas sales, according to Deloitte. A survey by the accounting firm showed shoppers in 19 western European countries expect to spend 2.5 percent less.

/... http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aPw7SGXAmEIQ&pos=12


Germany's taxpayers are not the only ones contributing to the, what's it called, stability fund. It's a collective effort, with even non-eurozone UK offering to contribute, of course, in the case of Ireland.

[jtuck004]

33. Anyone seen FDR around? We could use another WPA...

We have about 24 million people either unemployed or underemployed (working part time because their hours had been cut back), another 1.4 that are marginally attached, (have looked for work in the past year but not in the past 4 weeks, and 1.2 million discouraged workers who have given up.

About 27 million of our neighbors.

The unemployment rate in 1997 was about 5%, roughly 5 million people were in the above categories. So, (given some increases in the population) we need to re-employ about 20 million people to get the rate down in the 5% range.

The first 125,000 new jobs each month are needed by new workers entering the workforce, so we have to exceed that. If we could create another 125,000 it would begin to eat into the number of unemployed workers.

Thus, and although it has never happened in the history of the United States, if we could create 250,000 jobs each month for the next 13+ years, it would take us until sometime in 2024 to see an unemployment rate of around 5%.

It was reported that 143,000 were created this month, although I am wondering about the whole seasonal adjustment process of the BLS. ADP, the payroll processing company, does the payroll for a large percentage of businesses, and they deliver a report which is not adjusted, usually a couple days before the BLS report. Until this year they have tracked pretty closely, but there has begun a wide divergence...is it the seasonal adjustment, the "black box" addition of jobs (the formula or numbers which are not made public)? Or...

This puts an interesting light on the current discussion about extended unemployment benefits. While 73 weeks of extended benefits have been exhausted, it is possible that they might have to be extended for over 10 years. And the numbers of newly unemployed are expected to grow into at least next year.

The graph is at http://seekingalpha.com/article/229129-bls-vs-adp-whose-jobs-data-do-you-trust

[DemReadingDU]

35. Why isn't there another WPA program?

I don't understand why the government doesn't do more to create jobs for the unemployed. There are way too many people without a job who want to work. Perhaps the government knows something we don't know about the future?

[zogofzorkon]

43. Providing jobs would raise wages for everyone by reducing the labor pool.

Labor's demand for a living wage caused the economic collapse by making American made products too costly.
By offshoring mfg jobs, providing H1B1 visas , hiring undocumented workers and not providing a WPA type program the government hopes to drive wages still lower . The downward pressure on wages combined with the greater share of earnings retained by management will help ensure the country's return to the prosperity of the Gilded Age or even the Holy Grail feudalism.
The government does know something about the future they want. They do have a program. We just have to read between the lies.

[DemReadingDU]

44. The future the government wants

is the government of the wealthy, by the wealthy, for the wealthy.

Their program is not going to end well for the rest of us.

Nor will the program end well for the wealthy when the rest of us have no money and are hungry and realize the lies we were told.

I'm not sure the timeline of future events. Likely I may not live to see them unfold, but I do worry about the lives for my toddler grandbabies, assuming they survive.

[Demeter]

34. Why the Deficit Is Simply Not an Economic Problem Now, or in Future Decades

http://www.alternet.org/story/148915/why_the_deficit_is_simply_not_an_economic_problem_now%2C_or_in_future_decades

Despite ubiquitous claims to the contrary, the United States does not have a “deficit problem,” over either the short or the long term. That’s because a large fiscal deficit is an economic issue, and what we face is a political problem -- a profound disconnect between what Americans expect to receive from the government in services, and what they expect to pay for it in taxes...That’s fueled, in large part, by a well-funded conservative movement that has convinced a significant portion of the population that they can live in a modern, highly developed country with decent infrastructure and a modest safety net, get an endless series of tax breaks and not take on a mountain of debt as a result. That mathematical impossibility represents a different problem; namely, a public that’s poorly informed about taxes and spending. It’s a low information problem.

We would have a deficit problem -- an economic problem -- if the right’s narrative of “runaway government spending” had some basis in reality. But it doesn’t. Using data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development -- the “rich countries’ club” whose members represent most of the world’s leading economies -- Sabina Dewan and Michael Ettlinger showed that between 2004 and 2007, the U.S. ranked 24th out of 26 countries in overall government spending as a share of our economic output. Only Ireland and South Korea, both relative newcomers to the club, had a more “limited government” than we did during that span...That share will rise in the coming years as the baby boomers move into their golden years and we offer health insurance to millions of Americans who couldn’t previously afford it, but given that our spending was about 7 percentage points below the OECD average -- and almost 20 percentage points beneath that of big spenders like France -- we still won’t have a very “big” government relative to the rest of the developed world.

We would also have an economic problem if we couldn’t afford to raise taxes to pay for what we, as citizens of a democracy, want the government to do -- if the Right’s narrative that we’re “being taxed to death” had some basis in reality. But, again, it doesn’t. In 2008, we ranked 26th out of the 30 OECD countries in our overall tax burden -- the share of our economy we fork over to the government -- coming in almost 9 percentage points below the average of the group of wealthy nations, and, again, some 20 percentage points below highly taxed countries like Denmark.

.......

The reason it’s important to understand that our budget gap is a not a structural economic problem is simple: presenting it as such -- and getting pretty much everyone to repeat the claim -- is giving America’s elites an opportunity to steal your Social Security, make seniors and vets pay a bigger chunk for their health care, and otherwise deepen their brutal assault on working America’s economic security.


But when one sees the deficit more accurately -- as a result of undertaxation relative to what we want the government to do, driven by a political problem caused by decades of conservative demagoguery about taxes -- different solutions arise, solutions that wouldn’t require “painful cuts” to popular domestic programs.

[Roland99]

38. Lotta truth in there. Problem is getting those brain-dead Americans that fall for the GOP crap

to break out of their stupor.

[rfranklin]

42. When the scope of your knowledge is defined by Fox News...

the New York Post, Glen Beck and Rush Limbaugh, it is no surprise that you are getting screwed and thinking you're on top of the world (if only those damn brown skin people and illegal aliens weren't allowed to live off you hard earned money!)