Expats recalled as North Korea prepares for war

[nadinbrzezinski]

Source: The Independent

Expats recalled as North Korea prepares for war
By Shaun Walker in Moscow
Saturday, 27 November 2010SHARE PRINTEMAILTEXT SIZE NORMALLARGEEXTRA LARGE
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A mass exodus of North Korean workers from the Far East of Russia is under way, according to reports coming out of the region. As the two Koreas edged towards the brink of war this week, it appears that the workers in Russia have been called back to aid potential military operations.

Vladnews agency, based in Vladivostok, reported that North Korean workers had left the town of Nakhodka en masse shortly after the escalation of tension on the Korean peninsula earlier this week. "Traders have left the kiosks and markets, workers have abandoned building sites, and North Korean secret service employees working in the region have joined them and left," the agency reported.

Read more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/expats-recalled-as-north-korea-prepares-for-war-2145018.html

---

The things one learns, and this reeks of general mobilization...

Oh and general note it is a day ahead, international date line...so the Washington Battle Group will get there Saturday, our time...I wonder if most people will notice WWIII broke out though in this country.

[krispos42]

1. Shit. It's "Red Phoenix" time n/t

[Imajika]

47. That was a great book...

Doubt there will really be a war on the peninsula though.

[dixiegrrrrl]

2. WTF????

Are they serious??????

This is insane.

[ORDagnabbit]

5. I'm pretty sure if you look up "north korea" in the encyclopedia the only description they give is

exactly what you typed. :)

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Yes, analysts point out

They got all to win and nothing left to lose

[Amonester]

3. I despise all wars, of course, but if kim jong junior(s)? want to commit

national suicide, they might be crazy enough to start the shooting.

[Poll_Blind]

4. That's definitely an interesting development. Good catch, Nadin!

Hrm. Curiouser and curiouser...

PB

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. There is more

Blasts heard near North Korea border

wai1twit (@wai1twit)
11/26/10 9:43 PM
RT @SouthTejasGal: MORE Blasts Blasts heard near North Korea border http://bbc.in/hsmkCx

It is heating up.

[dixiegrrrrl]

8. Ok...who is REALLY behind this?

[Pavulon]

9. The norths cycle of fuckup then beg has been interrupted

they will implode or explode. Or they will go back to kidnapping Japanese women and being generally crazy for another 20 years.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. My read, internal succession crisis

And worst case Oceania has been our enemy...tongue in cheek, the war is about to resume...

[Posteritatis]

48. Or not a crisis so much as boosting the heir

Things started flaring up about the same time North Korea unveiled Kim Jong-Un for the first time, and they recently dropped another batch of military promotions on him. "Behold the new guy! He is dynamic and active!" or something.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. Oh an I highly recommend the twitter

Fastest way to find links and a few humorous posts.

[dixiegrrrrl]

27. Got a few twitter headings that are worth following????

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. North Korea and breaking news

[dixiegrrrrl]

53. T.Y.

:hi:

[neverforget]

12. I'll believe they're mobilizing for war when I hear the reports of mobilization

of the North Korean military and reserves. When the South follows suit, then it's time to worry.

I think the North is just seeing how far they can push the South without repercussion and get what they want from the US and the South. At least that's what I hope is going on....

[Chipper Chat]

13. I hope we don't experience helicopters being pushed off

rooftops in Seoul in 9 years.

[JVS]

14. I'd be very surprised if that happened.

[Chulanowa]

18. No. That'll be happening in Pyongyang

It's how they launch the things over there.

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. Worst case, there will be no choppers

But mushroom clouds.

[jberryhill]

25. It won't take that long

If a war breaks out, there aren't going to be any rooftops in Seoul in under a day.

[Posteritatis]

49. A conventional war there will probably be, ah, brief

Even if it doesn't involve WMD use by either side, a set of modern mechanized armies running headlong into each other will annihilate a lot of stuff very quickly. Someone would fall apart in weeks, months at the outside.

Of course, my "if" there is a pretty big "if" for that situation going hot.

[CreekDog]

63. how many of our troops are on the DMZ?

given that, how do you think this would turn out should a conventional war begin?

[Name removed]

66. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[bemildred]

64. Well OK, I see, but they have said that before, on numerous occasions.

I tend to favor the idea that wars are unpredictable.

[mahina]

32. +1

[JJW]

15. Must be a Holiday

Ever notice rumblings of wars always happens during holidays. Just to keep everyone scared, instead of talking about real concerns, such as how to find jobs and put food on the table.

[JVS]

17. We are approaching the end of Juche 99.

Maybe they anticipate some technical difficulties.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y1C_Problem

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. N.Korea is not working on our calendar

Things hav been escalating for the last year.

[waddirum]

71. Yes I noticed that too...

I'm usually at my parents' place for Thanksgiving and X-mas. The shit always seems to happen when I'm in town: Bhutto's assassination, the underwear bomber, the Mumbai bombing, and many others.

[Ozymanithrax]

16. Depends on how many of the 28,500 Americans stationed there...

have families that need notification of missing in action or dead.

Once the artiliary starts falling in earnest, Americans will know.

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. But who will wake up the news models?

[Ozymanithrax]

22. Watch CNN...

I'd bet they have people on the ground in Soul to broadcast during the artilary barrage. It is great for ratings.

The question I have, if it comes to a shooting war. Whose side will China be on?

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. If it goes nuclear they will be off the air

China has a problem, called saving face.

[Ozymanithrax]

26. If it goes nuclear, North Korea will be obliterated...

and China has to decide whether they can allow nuclear weapons used that close to their country. Yes, technially, the Tapadong III can hit Washington State, but it has never been tested to that range and that is a suicide scenario.

I think North Korea will keep it conventional. They have the largest concentration of artillary in the world. They could level Soul in less than 24 hours. Most of the U.S. ground forces there would be killed. With the way we are stretched around the world, it will take time to get a real invasion force there. We can bomb the hell out of them, but you can not win a war with bombers.

[neverforget]

30. If it does come to war, cyber space is going to be a major factor in the North's

strategy. they'll do everything they can to disrupt our communications, intel and computer systems as much as they can. They'll also hit Okinawa, Guam, and the bases on mainland Japan such as Yokota and Misawa AFB, etc with missiles. Anything they can do to disrupt the flow of war material into the Korean Peninsula, they will do. Their Special Forces will disrupt South Korean transportation and attack economic and military targets. If the North's missiles can hit Alaska and Hawaii, they'll do that too. Who knows if the warheads will be chemical or biological. I seriously doubt they've miniaturized a nuke to fit on one of their missiles. If they use any NBC, North Korea will probably be a smoldering radioactive ruin. It's national suicide but then again, they're nuts.

[pa28]

31. I think so.

I don't blame the Japanese for being concerned about the future of NK nukes but for today they can rest easy IMO.

NK nuclear tests have been marginal and it's a big leap to think they have suddenly developed a weaponized device that can be delivered on a missile of questionable capability.

[pa28]

24. Interesting point.

Once you get too deep into a mobilization you don't go back. However, these items seem to be originating from third parties and not the northern government so that gives a little hope.

Keeping fingers crossed at this point. I still think the North is just posturing to smooth the succession for Kim Jong Un while banking on the south to swallow the barbs.

[dixiegrrrrl]

28. South Korea has responded by sending propoganda balloons.

SKorea sent propaganda balloons: media
Updated at: 1056 PST, Saturday, November 27, 2010
SEOUL: When North Korea sent a rain of deadly shells across its border this week, the South retaliated not just with artillery but also a weapon that the hardline regime truly fears -- balloons.

According to media reports, Seoul quickly launched a propaganda offensive meant to undermine the iron-fisted rule of Kim Jong-Il by sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets on balloons across the heavily fortified border.

"We've released the balloons carrying leaflets as retaliation against the shelling," a military official was quoted as telling the Joongang Ilbo daily.

"The leaflets contain criticism against Kim Jong-Il and the third-generation hereditary succession," the unnamed official said in reference to the North's expected looming power transfer to Kim's 27-year-old son Jong-Un.

Seoul had promised Pyongyang six years ago to halt such psy-ops, or psychological operations, but the South reportedly resumed them after the North stunned it Tuesday by shelling an island and killing four people.

Some 400,000 leaflets denouncing the North's sanctified leadership were floated across the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) just hours after the North launched a barrage of shells on Yeonpyeong island, the reports said.

http://www.geo.tv/11-27-2010/74906.htm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[David__77]

56. No one will read them except the elite.

People wouldn't dare read them. Special crews clean them up. N. Korea is very insulated.

[lfairban]

67. Finally, the South takes action!

"We've released the balloons carrying leaflets as retaliation against the shelling," a military official was quoted as telling the Joongang Ilbo daily.

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:


Thanks, that was a good one.

[Poll_Blind]

29. War or no, this can only mean one thing: Midget subs! Midget subs! Midget subs!

PB

[Arrowhead2k1]

34. I don't think people in the west comprehend how deadly serious the North is.

Obama is sending that battlegroup like a stubborn fool. He's playing a game of chicken with a maniac.

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. I think they get it

The people don't... Pass some stuffing...

[Poll_Blind]

36. Come on, he won the Nobel Peace Prize! How bad could it be?

PB

[Arrowhead2k1]

38. I hope you're right, but I'm not yet convinced...

I seriously feel like the country is on the brink of a major, major war here. Also, it's a little disconcerting to see the president sustaining an injury while playing some hoops today. It's like he's not even calling the shots here... I mean, no one is seemingly stepping up to avert this potential disaster and I fear that we are on a direct collision course with North Korea right now.

Madness...

[Poll_Blind]

40. Well, I didn't have room to fit the sarcasm tag in there, heh heh.

I dunno if we're on a course for a war with North Korea or not. Really, no idea. What I find odd is that unless I've missed him speaking on the matter (which I might have), then he hasn't addressed this in any way. Wait, that's gotta be wrong, I'm pretty sure him being quoted talking about it being an outrage, yadda yadda- or was that someone else?

Anyway, I don't divine him getting a busted lip as being anything more than he plays contact sports for fun.

What I do divine as...interesting...is that he's sending the U.S.S. George Washington- which I think should be in the area about 12 hours after I post this, maybe a little later. Nuclear-powered supercarrier.

Why dangle something like this in front of the North Koreans to swat at? Remember, we announced the joint exercises as soon as the island shelling incident happened. Well, ok. But even the Chinese are asking in a somewhat forceful manner, for us not to start any shit in their "economic zone" which is probably everything West of the Korean peninsula. It seems like a rash move. If the North Koreans have anti-ship missiles from the Chinese, and remember anti-ship missiles are a Chinese specialty than we could wind up in a very bad position putting such a big, single target like that out there. The planes provide quite a bit of defense, but that's about it. The North Koreans are bristling with anti-aircraft missiles like collecting AA batteries was their hobby and religion so...

:shrug:

Nobody asks me, though. (sniff) But I would have put a larger number of smaller ships out there.

Anyway, Obama's calling their bluff. And if it backfires on him there are going to be a lot of people dead in the short term and a fuckload of people all burned up and twisted, in the long run.

Is North Korea planning an attack? Are they mobilizing? I as an armchair quarterback do not have the answers to those questions. But President Obama almost certainly does. And the difference in how we'd both approach the situation is probably a reflection of this.

PB

[Arrowhead2k1]

42. Very well thoughtout post, and I fully agree with you.

It's just that the anxiety is killing me. All we can do as those who are not privy to the intelligence wires is wait and see how all of this plays out...

If war breaks out on the peninsula however, it will be a shocking event in history, akin to 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. World changing kind of stuff!

[Ozymanithrax]

37. We are technically at war with North Korea, having only signed a cease fire...

Sending a battle group is a sane idea. It will be needed to support South Korean forces in accordance with our agreements and, possibly, try to extract U.S. Military survivors if it gets bad.

What would you suggest he do?
The Six Party Talks have failed.
North Korea has the largest concentration of artillery in the world.
They could hit Japan with missiles if they really get froggy.

What would be a sane answer to the provocation.

[Arrowhead2k1]

39. Swallow a little bit of pride and call off the apparently provocative drills on the NK border, ffs.

Relocate them further south or something. Anything! We are on a collision course here folks!

[Ozymanithrax]

52. They have this same drill every year...

Every year, the North Koreans complain. (They don't kill civilians and military).
Since we've been doing this now for almost 50, why they decision to use artillery.
North Koreans have a purpose for doing this. They sunk a ship. Now, they shell and kill military and civilians. This is escalating. Why South Korea we tell North Korea we are sorry we bothered you by living on our property and going about our business.

Also, we have agreements with the South Koreans that require U.S. military and diplomatic support.

But this isn't in isolation.

It was just revealed that North Korea has a Uranium Enrichment facility, which heightens the danger to Japan itself, and U.S. interests. The succession by all accounts isn't going well. War makes the heart grow fonder for totalitarian dictators.

I don't think it is really likely that North Korea wants a war. Even they are smart enough to know they won't survive even a short conventional war.

But, to revise an earlier statement I made about the artillery. North Korea could level Soul in an hour, and close to wipe out 28500 Americans stationed there, in an hour. At the end of the first artillery barrage, South Korea would destroy the Artillery of North Korea and destroy their ability to win a conventional war. That is 1 hour.

There is no farther South. That island they shelled is South Korean property. Soul is only abut 80 miles from the DMZ. How much of their country would they need to give to North Korea to keep them from murdering South Koreans?

Just to think about. If Mexico shelled Catalina Island, should we, in order to avoid a war, move everyone out of Catalina Island. Should we declare that all land within 80 miles of the border is a DMZ and all citizens must abandon their homes and move out.

Sometimes people have no choice but to stand up for their rights.

[ProgressiveMajority]

65. Agree with most points, but disagree about pulling out, S.Korea should pull out of disputed areas

All the people on that Island should be moved off, as well as other disputed border areas. Move civilians away from the powder keg and pull S.Korean military out as well. Then, hope the North is happy and doesn't just move into the empty areas.

[nadinbrzezinski]

69. I hate to point this out

But NK claims most of the south...

[Ozymanithrax]

72. So South Korea takes the property of civilians who have lived there all their lives, who anestors

lived there for a thousand years or more?

I disagree.

[ProgressiveMajority]

75. Well a lot of people here think South Korea should stop provoking the North, that would do it

What else could South Korea do besides pull out of disputed areas?? As long as they are in disputed lands it will provoke the North.

[tuckessee]

70. When was Declaration Of War signed? Was it HST or Ike who signed it?

Without one I don't understand how you can "technically" be "at war".

[Ozymanithrax]

73. It was Harry Truman that comitted us to a war...

brought in by our membership of the U.N., one of those entangling aliances Washington warned us about.

http://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/korean-conflict/
War broke out along the 38th parallel on June 25, 1950. On that day, North Korean troops coordinated an attack at several strategic points along the parallel and headed south toward Seoul. The United Nations Security Council responded to the attack by adopting (by a 9-0 vote) a resolution that condemned the invasion as a "breach of the peace." The Council did not have a Soviet delegate, since 6 months prior, the Soviet Union had left to protest the United Nation's refusal to seat a delegate from China. President Harry S. Truman quickly committed American forces to a combined United Nations military effort and named Gen. Douglas MacArthur Commander of the U.N. forces. Fifteen other nations also sent troops under the U.N. command. Truman did not seek a formal declaration of war from Congress; officially, America's presence in Korea amounted to no more than a "police action."

A cease-fire agreement ended hostilities in 1953, but a cease-fire is not an armistice.

Curiously, Korea does not feal itself bound by the conditions of the ceasefire. See The End Of The Korean War Cease-Fire – Does It Matter?

In their eyes, we are at war with them.

[RaleighNCDUer]

41. What about our dependent families in S Korea - have they been

sent packing?

I will never forget when I was a kid, stationed in Germany during the Cuban Missile Crisis, each of us kids had one suitcase packed and ready to go, just in case - that is, just in case Russian tanks started rolling in from E Germany.

[Lars77]

43. I have a good friend who just moved back from Seoul after two years there

She told me that in the event of a war, North Korea only has fuel for about a month. However, the scary thing is that Seoul is right near the border. More than 20 million people including the government is in Seoul, the city is so densely populated that just one rocket or bomb is bound to kill somebody. Imagine what constant shelling and potentially street fights there will do.

Everyone has an evacuation plan, and in fact people are told to have evaquation kits with three days of food and water so people can walk southwards, but Seoul is so densely populated there's just going to be total mayhem.

I think everyone expects the South to win, they have superior equipment even if the North has the numbers. But at what cost?

Not to mention the nuclear scenario..

[saigon68]

44. 16-inch Gun on M1919 Barbette Carriage

[bemildred]

46. The old ways are best.

:thumbsup:

[bemildred]

45. Yep, the North has a "credible deterrent", but they cannot win once it starts.

The belligerence is a sign of weakness.

[JVS]

51. Neither side can really win.

North Korea is a repressive dictatorship that places strict limits on what citizens can and can't do. Even under normal circumstances it is very difficult for a country of 24 million to occupy and control a country of 49 million. For the kind of policing necessary to enforce anything close to what North Korean leadership would consider acceptable behavior, it would be impossible.

Taking over and occupying North Korea would also be very difficult.

[bemildred]

55. War is a nasty business.

You make astute comments.

[David__77]

57. Why do you say they cannot win?

I don't know, and how can one define victory?

[bemildred]

58. Well, it is true that the outcome is likely to be determined by "outside powers".

It may well not be allowed for the North and South to duke it out on their own. Treaties for one thing. But assuming they were allowed to do that, then on paper the South looks much stronger. That is what I mean.

[David__77]

60. I'm not sure it matters though.

If N. Korea deployed chemical, biological, or even possibly nuclear weapons, then how will S. Korea's advantage in other areas matter much? If the population were greatly reduced, which is entirely possible, is it not possible that a minority of hardened ideologues could indeed win out at least in part? I think there are so many variables with great uncertainty, than it's hard to say what is likely.

[bemildred]

61. Right, "everybody dies". nt

[Posteritatis]

68. Continued existence as a polity would probably qualify as a victory for them if it went hot

They'd be pretty lucky to get that; if the gloves came off I have a hard time imaging other countries allowing that regime to continue to exist. Heaven knows South Korea wouldn't be interested in that, especially if the North hit Seoul.

North Korea still hopes to reunify the peninsula under its own flag. If they ever make a go at enforcing that, they're going to be pretty disappointed as well.

[christx30]

74. My guess is

that if the North continues this path, the peninsula will be united under one flag. But it's not going to be the North's. China isn't going to want this destabilization to continue much longer, even if things don't heat up with this episode. They are going to want to do something behind the scenes. they are moving away from communism and getting more toward a Chinese version of capitalism, which will make hard core Stalinist communism less attractive right next door. My guess is that they are going to put off Washington and Seoul in public, but in private, they are going to try to find a rolled up newspaper for that rabid dog they have propped up for years.

[Odin2005]

50. I fear this is gonna get ugly!

:(

[jamiefoxer]

54. stupid move

The North Koreans have been baiting South Korea and the U.S. for a while....saber rattling, torpedoing SK boats, shooting over the border at SK troops, and now the artillery barrage.

What have SK and the U.S. done? Sensibly prepared SK's defenses and engaged in futile talks with NK, along with aiding it with food and civilian resources.

If NK moves for war, it will be a disaster for everyone involved...but mostly them. It's the end of their regime and they know it.

[Safetykitten]

59. Nothing will happen. China will not allow it. Of course there will be all the theatrics,

and back and forth shit, but at the end of the day, China and it's cash and it's economy would not tolerate a war.

So there will not be one.

Keep shopping....China needs it....that is all.

[Kucinich Feingold]

62. That were I'm seeing this