STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, January 3, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: DU

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, January 3, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 31, 2010

Dow 11,577.51 +7.8 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,652.87 -10.11 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,257.64 -0.24 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.32 +0.03 (+0.94%)
30-Year Bond 4.36 +0.02 (+0.48%)

---

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

---

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: DU

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Statement of Purpose for the Stock Market Watch thread

Welcome to 2011, Stock Market Watch readers. My name is Patrick (Pale Blue Dot) and I will be posting this thread for the foreseeable future. I got this gig not because of any special knowledge or outstanding personal qualities, but because I was the only person who volunteered to do it. My job as a middle school English teacher in a major northeast city means that I’m up early enough to start the thread each morning, and my interest in economics means that I want to keep the discussion going.

Like many who post here, my general view of the state of our economy falls toward the “pessimistic” side. I believe that there are fundamental problems with the current U.S. version of capitalism that have yet to be adequately addressed, and that those problems have potential to lead to our downfall as a nation. I am aware that this general view of the world, which permeates this thread, keeps many from posting here. I hope that you will reconsider and join the discussion.

Just like elsewhere on DU, however, this thread is filled with knowledgeable people who read about the economy daily. If anyone, no matter their view, expects to post in this thread and not be challenged, they’re going to be very disappointed. Part of my job will be to keep the discussion as civil and factual as possible. There’s room in this thread for all kinds of opinions about the stock market and the economy. My hope is that this thread will be about civil discourse and data, and not about emotion.

Having said that, we all have good days and bad days; no one knows that more than I. I’ve run the spectrum on DU from being a praised, two-term moderator to being banned from the site (I am back with Skinner’s permission). To that end, I believe that the “alert” button is our friend, especially in this thread. I am forwarding this post to the DU administrators, and I invite them to hold me accountable for making the Stock Market Watch as civil as possible.

I have absolutely no plans to take this thread in a radically different direction in terms of set up, but if you have any suggestions for what you’d like to see here, please post them below or PM me. I look forward to keeping this thread going into the future.

[Demeter]

4. Second Rec!

Thanks Patrick, for taking on this enormous responsibility.

[Pale Blue Dot]

8. And thank you, Demeter!

I'm looking forward to it!

[DemReadingDU]

16. Thank you PBD!

Appreciate that you are taking over this gig, and I look forward to the daily economic news and discussions.

[tclambert]

20. Thank you for taking on the responsibility.

And thanks for your intention to keep the discussion civil and factual. I've always liked that posters to this thread, so unlike any online thread I've seen anywhere, often cite sources for their information.

As for me, I still want to be the next Warren Buffett, which means I assume the economy, and the stock market, will not collapse completely. I really don't see the upside of betting the other way. For me, I would like the discussion to sometimes turn to what future trends may boost certain companies, or kill others. Unfortunately, it seems like the gigabanks and oil companies keep finding ways to tilt the tables in their favor, and my conscience just won't let me invest in such blatant evil. Hmm, I bet someone could make money on a "Blatant Evil Mutual Fund."

[Po_d Mainiac]

31. Silver Price Prediction for 2011

Here is my silver price prediction chart for 2011. I will update this chart each month throughout the year so that you can see how I am doing. Send me your prediction, which consists of your predicted price at the end of trading in New York on the first day of each month. Indicate whether or not you want your chart to appear on the graph with mine, your data will be entered into a pool of values. I will post the median price each month based on the pool. All entries must be received by January 20, 2011. I will pick up to 5 other predictions to display on the same chart:

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1293822986.php

as the Bernank keeps printing, some stuff will follow gravity..YMMV

[AnneD]

45. You are on.....

My sources, namely Jimmy the Greek, tells me $49.20 per ounce. Or was it $42.90, I can't tell for all that damn cigar smoke. Gee, no wonder he died.

And you are right, silver is the one to watch this year.

[Doctor_J]

61. If I want to take advantage of this, how do I buy silver?

Preferably, using my Chase investment account

:shrug:

[Po_d Mainiac]

67. This can get u started

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/5-Silver-Stocks-For-2011-SLW-SVM-EXK-SLV-PAAS1229.aspx

http://www.zacks.com/commentary/15979/Forget+Gold%3A+Buy+Silver+Stocks+Instead

http://www.cnanalyst.com/2010/11/top-10-goldsilver-stocks-with-highest-return-on-equity-cdy-plg-bvn-cgc-rio-svm-gtu-nem-mgh-drooy-nov.html

Always research any stock/company before buying. Be advised, there has been plenty written lately about the possible empty vaults behind the ETF's (Example SLV) ..... (Zerohedge has plenty of excellent articles on the subject archived) ... And since these are stocks, they are subject to the Wall St Gaming Commission rules

Personally, I prefer holding hard. There are several ways to buy/sell bullion without getting ripped off. There are also a lot of ways to get hosed.... PM if you would like further info

[tclambert]

75. Well, that sounds di-irty.

If I said, "I prefer holding hard" at work, there'd be ladies yelling, "Red light! Red light!"

[Po_d Mainiac]

80. My bad

I meant to say holding long and hard
:hide:

[Roland99]

68. Mogambo Guru is big on silver, too.

[Po_d Mainiac]

81. From their (MG-Safehaven) March 06 newsletter

- If you want something to take to your spouse so that you can prove that you need, desperately need, to be buying more and more silver instead of foolishly spending the money on frivolous crap, like, for example, birthday presents for the damned kids, then Ted Butler is the man to see. In an essay entitled "Bringing the Pot to a Boil" in the James Cook Market Update newsletter at Investment Rarities.com, he writes that while the main point of his article discusses the proposed silver Exchange-Traded Fund, he later concludes that silver is going to the moon one way or the other, and that "We don't need a silver ETF to cause the price of silver to explode" which reminded me of the Mexican bandit in the movie "Treasure of the Sierra Madre" where he says "Badges? We don need no steenking badges!" Hahaha!

http://www.safehaven.com/article/4740/e-economic-newsletter

[tclambert]

76. So Voltaire predicts it will go up from $30 to $50, that's +66%

Wait, is this your prediction or Voltaire's? Why have I never seen the two of you in the same place at the same time? Are those real glasses or just a disguise?

Anyway, up 66% is a lot. It might be worth a bet. My credit union savings account is now paying 0.1% APR interest. Not much incentive to let cash sit there. But why should silver go up? Is there any increase in demand for its use? Is the prediction based on extreme pessimism about other forms of investments?

[Po_d Mainiac]

79. I'll answer your question with a question

If you were a large exporter (like China) with an excess of FED IOU's already (like China) and were watching every major CB trying to dilute their currency faster than the Bernank...

How would you be investing your savings so as to be out of reach of a sovereign default?

[Po_d Mainiac]

83. The price was $17.15/oz on 1/3/10

a 66% increase seems tame by comparison

[silverlib]

34. I can't thank you enough for taking the ball and running...

I look forward to having coffee with you every morning!

[Roland99]

39. Thanks for taking the reins, PBD

:toast:

[MsLeopard]

41. Thanks, Patrick

Thanks for taking on this responsibility that provides so much useful information, to so many DUers. Please know we loyal lurkers appreciate your efforts even if we seldom express it. Cheers! :toast:

[raouldukelives]

52. Groovy

Thanks for keeping it going!

[florida08]

54. Nice to meet you Patrick

Glad to know Ozy's efforts will continue. The pessimism is warranted given the reality of what the republicans along with democratic capitulation are doing. The final straw for me was de funding SS in the 'hold the unemployed hostage' tax parley that just transpired. The year will no doubt be interesting to watch as the GOP goal intensifies to finish off any liberal/democratic initiatives. I thank you and everyone here for their views and information.

Good people on this thread injecting humor and substance.

[Skinner]

55. Thanks for volunteering.

:thumbsup:

[maddogesq]

56. As a newby into market dabbling, I appreciate your efforts.

I may not post a lot, but I will be checking in for insights from all you invsto-smarties from time-to-time.

I have become able to invest outside of a 401k for the first time in my life. I have put resources into socially responsible and sustainable investments, including green energy, etc. I am also interested in any thoughts on producers of lithium batteries for electric and hybrid cars, as one company called A123 is putting a battery plant in Livonia, which is one town over from me.

Again, thanks Patrick. I never really viewed this thread much until now. Keep up the good work.

Peace.

[Gregorian]

57. I've always felt that the Stock Market Watch is a valuable part of DU. Thank you, and Ozymandius.

It's a historic moment. Thanks for taking time out of your day to do this.

[Hugin]

58. Great start, PBD.

Always nice to have a Statement of Purpose to point to now and again. :)

[girl gone mad]

70. Thanks, pbd.

I'm really glad that someone could step in and keep this valuable daily discussion going.

[some guy]

86. I meant to stop by earlier

to wish you a joyous start.

have fun doing this thread, and thanks for doing this thread.

:hi:

:yourock:

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Today's Reports

Jan 03 10:00 Construction Spending Nov -0.4% 0.2% 0.7%
Jan 03 10:00 ISM Index Dec 58.0 57.3 56.6


Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#ixzz19y59jEXi

[Ghost Dog]

65. US manufacturing grows, bolsters 2011 outlook

NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in seven months in December, extending a recent run of encouraging economic data and suggesting that expansion of the world's biggest economy will accelerate in 2011. The Institute for Supply Management's national factory activity index rose to 57 from 56.6 in November, marking the 17th consecutive month of growth in the manufacturing industry, with a rise in new orders providing momentum for further growth..

A separate report on Monday showed construction spending hit a five-month high in November, more evidence that the U.S. economy picked up steam in the final quarter of last year. 'These good numbers continue the story of an economic recovery,' said David Carter, chief investment officer at Lenox Advisors in New York. 'For the market in general, we're off to a new start and people are optimistic.'

Monday's data dovetailed with strong readings on employment and consumer spending over the last few months of 2010, leading economists to bet a fragile U.S. recovery may this year finally turn into self-sustaining growth.

Congress' decision last year to extend U.S. tax cuts has also aided consumers and lifted U.S. stock indexes, and economists say that may convince the Federal Reserve to end a $600 billion stimulus program as planned in mid-2011.

...

A caveat for the sunny outlook remains the unemployment rate, which stood at 9.8 percent in November and is expected to remain high for much of the year. The government's closely watched employment report due Friday is expected to show employers added 140,000 jobs last month, not enough to make much of a dent in the jobless rate. Even the otherwise promising ISM report showed factory sector employment slipped to a nine-month low. Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, also said the ISM index provides little insight about smaller firms and has tended to overstate the pace of economic growth over the last three quarters.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2011-01/18974549-wrapup-2-us-manufacturing-grows-bolsters-2011-outlook-020.htm

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. Oil rises close to $92, near 2-year high

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose to near $92 a barrel Monday in Asia as traders mulled how high crude can go before it sparks inflation that slows demand and the global economic recovery.

Benchmark oil for February delivery rose 20 cents to $91.58 a barrel late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.54 to settle at $91.38 on Friday.

Oil traded in the $70 for most of last year before jumped to a two-year high above $92 in December on signs of strong crude demand in emerging economies such as China. Oil averaged $79.72 a barrel in 2010.

Traders in recent years have also increasingly bought oil futures contracts as protection against inflation and a falling dollar. However, to the extent that higher crude prices themselves threaten to quicken inflation, hedging with oil becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[tclambert]

12. I was hoping this was a holiday thing and prices would come down.

But my car needs gas! I'm gonna hafta pay the $3.20 a gallon, aren't I? Oh, how I hate Exxon Mobil.

[tclambert]

77. I found a place selling regular for $3.04/gallon. Yay!

I still have most of my left arm!

[AnneD]

5. Darn.....

number 3. Good luck PBD, and well wishes for the new job. Let me be the first to offer you :donut: since it is too early for :toast: :beer: Or maybe this is better:hangover:

[Demeter]

6. Deep Hole Economics By PAUL KRUGMAN

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/opinion/03krugman.html

If there’s one piece of economic wisdom I hope people will grasp this year, it’s this: Even though we may finally have stopped digging, we’re still near the bottom of a very deep hole... I worry that policy makers will look at a few favorable economic indicators, decide that they no longer need to promote recovery, and take steps that send us sliding right back to the bottom.

...Jobs, not G.D.P. numbers, are what matter to American families. And when you start from an unemployment rate of almost 10 percent, the arithmetic of job creation — the amount of growth you need to get back to a tolerable jobs picture — is daunting... Suppose that the U.S. economy were to grow at 4 percent a year, starting now and continuing for the next several years. Most people would regard this as excellent performance, even as an economic boom; it’s certainly higher than almost all the forecasts I’ve seen.

Yet the math says that even with that kind of growth the unemployment rate would be close to 9 percent at the end of this year, and still above 8 percent at the end of 2012. We wouldn’t get to anything resembling full employment until late in Sarah Palin’s first presidential term...Seriously, what we’re looking at over the next few years, even with pretty good growth, are unemployment rates that not long ago would have been considered catastrophic — because they are. Behind those dry statistics lies a vast landscape of suffering and broken dreams. And the arithmetic says that the suffering will continue as far as the eye can see.

A rational political system would long since have created a 21st-century version of the Works Progress Administration — we’d be putting the unemployed to work doing what needs to be done, repairing and improving our fraying infrastructure...Realistically, the best we can hope for from fiscal policy is that Washington doesn’t actively undermine the recovery. Beware, in particular, the Ides of March: by then, the federal government will probably have hit its debt limit and the G.O.P. will try to force President Obama into economically harmful spending cuts.

[Loge23]

51. This goes back to the original stimulus bill

...which was woefully too short to begin with. Many of us probably remember the "compromises" then also - the bill was significantly watered down with most of the meaningful stimulus ideas discarded. Krugman argued for a WPA-type project then also, as did myself. Now, it's way too late. Tragically, the meaningless tax cuts have rendered any significant main street stimulus moot.
So we will get more pressure now to cut social programs even as we continue to bomb the bejeesus out of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pretty soon, our infrastructure and theirs will look about the same.

[Rhiannon12866]

7. K&R! This must be a lot of work... Good luck!

:hi:

[Demeter]

9. The NYT's Apocalypse: $1 Trillion a Year in Interest on the National Debt

http://seekingalpha.com/article/236642-the-nyt-s-apocalypse-1-trillion-a-year-in-interest-on-the-national-debt?source=feed

Elections come and go, but the United States is still careening toward bankruptcy. By 2020, the U.S. will be spending $1 trillion a year just to pay the interest on the national debt. Sometime between now and then the catastrophe will come.

It will come with amazing swiftness. The bond markets are with you until the second they are against you. When the psychology shifts and the fiscal crisis happens, the shock will be grievous: national humiliation, diminished power in the world, drastic cuts and spreading pain.

I still like the biblical version with the four horseman and the rivers flowing upstream, but hey, it's the oped page of the NYT. No one expects that people will be reading this stuff 1500 years from now. Anyhow, let's take a closer look at Mr. Brook's apocalypse. The U.S. will be spending $1 trillion a year just to the pay the interest on the national debt." Pretty scary, huh?

Well, first it is probably worth noting that Brooks is somewhat more pessimistic on this score than the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which puts interest in 2020 at $916 billion. How scary is that?

Let's get out the GDP projections. CBO tells us that GDP will be $22.5 trillion in 2020 . This means that Mr. Brooks' scary interest burden will be equal to about 4.1 percent of GDP. Will that be the end of the world or least national humiliation, as Brooks promises? The interest burden peaked at 3.3 percent of GDP in 1991, so we would not be in hugely different territory than we were during the Bush I presidency.

But, there is a further complication. The Fed currently holds much of the federal debt and it is actually increasing its share. This is what QE2 is all about. Given the massive amount of excess capacity and unemployment, coupled with the trend towards disinflation, there is no reason that the Fed should not continue to hold this debt. (It can take other steps, such as increasing reserve requirements, to ensure that an increase in reserves in the banking system does not lead to inflation in future years.)...If the Fed holds the debt, then it poses no burden to the government. The Treasury pays interest on the debt to the Fed and then the Fed refunds the interest to the Treasury. Last year the Fed refunded $77 billion in interest to the Treasury, nearly 40 percent of the net interest paid out by the Treasury...

[Demeter]

10. Interview with Gary Gorton Yale University finance economist on growth & collapse of shadow banking

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=4596

...Banking evolves, and it evolves because the economy changes. There’s innovation and growth, and shadow banking is only the latest natural development of banking. It happened over a 30-year period. It’s part of a number of other changes in the economy. And let me give even a little more context, historical context. I want to convince you that shadow banking is not a new phenomenon, in a sense—that we have had previous “shadow banking” systems in the past—and that there is an important structure to bank debt that makes it vulnerable to panic. So, the crisis is not a special, one-time event, but something that has been repeated throughout U.S. history.

Before the Civil War, banking involved issuing private money—that is, banks issued their own currency or bank notes. And this system worked in the way economists would expect it to work. The private bank money did not trade at par when it circulated any significant distance from the issuing bank. Instead, it was subject to a discount, so that a bank note issued by a New Haven bank as a $10 note might only be worth $9.50 at a store in New York City, for example.

Such discounts from par reflected the risk that the issuing bank might not have the $10—redeemable in gold or silver coins—by the time the holder took the note back to New Haven from New York. The discounts from par were established in local markets. But you can see the problem of trying to buy your lunch when the cook has to figure out the discount. It was simply hard to buy and sell things in such a world.

A big innovation in that period was to back the money by collateral, by state bonds. It turned out that this didn’t always work very well because the bonds themselves were risky. The National Banking Act then corrects this by having the government take over money and issue greenbacks, or federal government notes backed by Treasuries. That was the first time in American history that money traded at par. That was 1863....

LENGTHY EXPOSE WELL WRITTEN

[happyslug]

59. I remember reading of a Railroad man writing in the 1880s about the 1840s

And now much easier it was in the 1880s, with paper money usable everywhere in the US, compared to his early travels when building the railroad in the late 1840s and 1850s. He acknowledged the problems of having a national currency (a debate even then) but he pointed out from a person going from one town to the next (Which he did often in the 1850s) it was difficult to determine what cash to take with you from one town to the town. He would ask if the currency was accepted in the next town and get a strong maybe, sometime what was recommended was correct, other it was incorrect. He just pointed out how much easier it was to be able to travel and not worry if the cash you were carrying would be accepted in the next town you stopped in.

[xchrom]

11. recommend

[newfie11]

13. Thanks for doing this

I don't post much but I do read it every day.:yourock:

[tclambert]

14. Good choice for the cartoon, PBD. Now, which one is Festivito?

My first thought was Festivito's the guy holding the debt clock. But then I thought maybe he was the infant, permanently scarred by this peri-natal experience.

[InkAddict]

47. My first inclination was that the babes in the cartoon had all been

enrolled in Baby Genius prenatal education classes if the babes can all read that sign and fear the numbers???? One can only wonder what the Prenatal Econ 100.5 curriculum covers as babes recline against the GenX/millenial mama's bossum for breast or bottle while they watch the dang plasma big screen MSM and the brain rot programming.

Edited to Welcome and Thank PBD on this First Watch day of tenure...

[Festivito]

85. I tink the glass, but I can't see you guys as the newborns either.

The national debt is nothing. The CDS problem is fifty times worse.

Dink that! I dare ya.

[Demeter]

15. Individual losses in a banking crisis have long-lasting effects on expectations and behaviour

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5982

...Our research finds negative experiences with a banking crisis affect expectations and behaviour for a decade or more. Although the results are based on a survey from Bulgaria, we suppose that the same effect would be observed in other countries where people lost money during a banking crisis. This finding is very much in line with evidence from other papers that the effects of crises are long-lasting (Osili and Paulson 2009, Malmendier and Nagel 2009, Giuliano and Spilimbergo 2009). Our analysis shows a similar and more personal effect with regards to banking crises.

The results suggest that the effect of financial crises on the economy should be studied in a longer-term context.

The impact of losses on expectations and behaviour recorded in the Bulgarian survey provides evidence that household losses during banking crises have real and durable effects and that these effects should be minimised, or else policymakers risk a long-term drag on the economy.

[Demeter]

17. U.S. Seeks Chief For Financial Consumer Agency

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204204004576050120167058068.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_business

White House adviser Elizabeth Warren and a top lieutenant are quietly asking business and consumer groups for names of people who might run the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, people familiar with the matter said.

The hunt suggests that Ms. Warren, a lightning rod for some bankers, might not be selected to lead the bureau, a centerpiece of the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul bill that passed this summer. Still, many liberal groups will push to get her in the post...

Among the names being discussed are Iowa's attorney general, Tom Miller; New York state bank regulator Richard Neiman; and former Office of Thrift Supervision director Ellen Seidman...

Several federal agencies are scheduled to transfer their powers to the new agency in July, and the administration wants to have a confirmed chief in place by then. Without a Senate-confirmed director, the agency's powers would be limited. For example, the agency wouldn't be able to issue certain new rules on lending...

[rfranklin]

26. Who will the Republicans demand as a "compromise?"

Someone nominated by the American Enterprise Institute I would guess.

[Po_d Mainiac]

37. In the lady's own words (By E. Warren)...Caption the picture!

New Consumer Agency Is Frightfully Necessary -- And Late

snip

While federal and state investigators are still examining exactly what has gone wrong and why, two things are clear.

First, several financial services companies have already admitted that they used "robo-signers," false declarations, and other workarounds to cut corners, creating a legal nightmare that will waste time and money that could have been better spent to help this economy recover. Mortgage lenders will spend millions of dollars retracing their steps, often with the same result that families who cannot pay will lose their homes.

more at link

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elizabeth-warren/new-consumer-agency-is-fr_b_802482.html

[Demeter]

18. Japan population shrinks by record in 2010

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110101/ap_on_re_as/as_japan_population

Japan logged 1.19 million deaths in 2010 — the biggest number since 1947 when the health ministry's annual records began. The number of births was nearly flat at 1.07 million.

As a result, Japan contracted by 123,000 people, which was the most ever and represents the fourth consecutive year of population decline. The top causes of death were cancer, heart disease and stroke, the ministry said.

Japanese aged 65 and older make up about a quarter of Japan's current population. The government projects that by 2050, that figure will climb to 40 percent...

Japan's total population stood at 125.77 million as of October, according to the ministry.

[Demeter]

19. Contrary to the NYT's Assertion, Japan Does Not "Face a Looming Demographic Squeeze"

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/contrary-to-the-nyts-assertion-japan-does-not-qface-a-looming-demographic-squeezeq?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+beat_the_press+%28Beat+the+Press%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

For some reason the NYT wants to scare its readers about Japan's economic situation, warning that the country faces a "demographic squeeze" because its population is declining. Simple arithmetic shows that this is nonsense.

The article tells readers that the share of the population over 65 is projected to rise from 25 percent in 2010 to 40 percent in 2050. Given that roughly 20 percent of the population is under age 20, this implies that the current ratio of people ages 20-65 to people over age 65 is approximately 2.2 to 1. Assuming the under 20 portion falls to 15 percent of the population by 2050, in that year the ratio will be 1.4 to 1.

If productivity growth averages just 1.5 percent annually (it has been averaging more than 2.0 percent in the U.S. over the last 15 years), then output per worker will be more than 80 percent higher in 2050 than it is today. If the average retiree currently consumes 70 percent as much as a prime age worker, then this increase in productivity would allow retirees in 2050 to enjoy a 50 percent rise in living standards above current levels, while still leaving workers almost 30 percent better off.

The situation will be even better insofar as more workers are pulled into the labor force. As this article notes, because of weak demand, many younger workers cannot find jobs. If Japan were facing a "demographic squeeze" then young workers will have no problem finding jobs since there will be a shortage of workers. Also, because of the longevity of relative good health of many older Japanese, it is likely that many people will opt to continue working past age 65.

The decline in population is in fact a benefit in many respects for Japan. It is a very crowded island with expensive land prices. A falling population will reduce the pressure on land making housing more affordable. It will also reduce congestion in cities. In addition, the decline in population will make it easier for Japan to meet commitments for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, if countries are ever held responsible for the contributions to global warming.

[tclambert]

78. AHA! Empirical evidence that Lasalle got the"Iron Law of Wages" wrong!

Population increases faster in the poorer countries. The more affluent countries, such as Japan and several in Europe, have seen decreasing population. This evidence disporves Malthus' demographic theory, which says population increases when wages rise above the subsistence wage and falls when wages fall below subsistence. I knew there was something fishy about it.

[Demeter]

21. Rebooting The American Dream by: Thom Hartmann, Serialized Book

http://www.truth-out.org/thom-hartmann-rebooting-american-dream65183

SEVEN CHAPTERS CURRENTLY AT LINK--NEW CHAPTER EVERY MONDAY

[fasttense]

33. Thanks for posting the link Demeter.

I read the 1st 2 chapters but then forgot where I found it.

This is a very good read.

[Demeter]

42. You're Welcome!

[Pale Blue Dot]

22. China growth ‘peaked,’ cooling to come: Credit Suisse

Dong Tao, the chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, said the purchasing managers’ index for December, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on Saturday, backs the view that the mainland economy peaked in the third quarter of last year.

Consumption is holding up — at least for now — while investment and exports have already slowed, signaling the looming slowdown, Tao said.

“We think that gross domestic product growth has showed its strongest momentum on a sequential quarter-on-quarter basis for the time being, while the year-on-year growth pace should decelerate from previous quarters, Tao said.

He said the recent round of increases in bank’s reserve requirement ratios, interest rates hikes and tighter controls over bank lending in December had been effective in instilling a more cautious sentiment among China companies.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-growth-may-be-cooling-credit-suisse-2011-01-03?siteid=rss&rss=1

[Demeter]

23. New Year's Prediction (II): The US Economy in 2011 by: Robert Reich

http://www.truth-out.org/robert-reich-new-years-prediction-ii-the-us-economy-201166402

...The two American economies — the Big Money economy and the Average Working Family economy — will continue to diverge. Corporate profits will continue to rise, as will the stock market. But typical wages will go nowhere, joblessness will remain high, the ranks of the long-term unemployed will continue to rise, the housing recovery will remain stalled, and consumer confidence will sag.

The big disconnect between corporate profits and jobs is likely to continue because America's big businesses are depending less and less on U.S. sales and U.S. workers. Their big profits are coming from two sources: (1) growing sales in China, India, and other fast-growing countries, and (2) slimmed-down US payrolls.

In a typical recovery, profits lead to more hiring. That's because in a typical recovery, American consumers head back to the malls — and their buying justifies more hires. Not this time. All the hype about Christmas sales over the last few weeks masked the fact that American consumers demanded bargain-basement prices. And the price-cutting dramatically reduced sellers' margins. In short, profits aren't coming from American consumers — and profits won't be coming from American consumers in 2011.

...The Dow Jones Industrial Average is rising because of foreign sales. General Motors is now making more cars in China than in the US, and two-thirds of its total sales are coming from abroad. When it went public last month it boasted that soon almost half its cars will be made around the world where labor is less than $15 an hour...

[Demeter]

24. Bushwacking Obama: Conservatives Seek to Trap President on Social Security

http://www.truth-out.org/bushwacking-obama-conservatives-seek-to-trap-president-on-social-security66444

Beware of conservatives bearing gifts. Today in the Washington Post, former Bush policy advisor, Michael Gerson echoes a growing chorus of conservative pundits offering up "Social Security reform" as "the answer to Obama's problems." The advice is illogical on its face, pernicious in its consequence, and poisoned from its source.

Gerson argues that Obama faces a major strategic decision in his coming State of the Union address, which must take the "first cut at the reelection message he carries to reelection or defeat." Gerson helpfully offers a course virtually guaranteed to increase the chances of the latter.

He predicts the president will focus on a multi-year discretionary spending freeze, and on banning earmarks. But, in a classic Republican negotiating stance, he dismisses this embrace of conservative policies as meaningless, since Republicans will trump anything the president suggests on spending cuts.

So to gain agreement with Republicans, Gerson argues, the president will have to offer up more, choosing between tax reform and entitlement reform. The former is dismissed as too hard. (And is dangerous for Republicans since it is hard to do tax reform without insisting that the wealthy no longer pay an effective tax rate that is lower than their secretaries)...

GOOD RANT, LOTS OF MATERIAL FOR DEBATERS...

[Demeter]

25. New health-care rules to take effect TODAY

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/31/AR2010123103189.html?hpid=topnews

[Karenina]

27. Thank you so much for taking on the job!

I know you'll do a good one! :toast:

[Pale Blue Dot]

28. Euro Falls Most in Two Weeks on Concern Debt Crisis to Hamper Fund Raising

The euro fell by the most in more than two weeks against the dollar amid concern the region’s debt crisis will hamper efforts by governments and banks to raise funds this year.

The common currency weakened versus all but two of its 16 major peers before France auctions 8.5 billion euros ($11.3 billion) of debt today. The Swiss franc pared its gain against the euro after a gauge of manufacturing unexpectedly fell last month. The pound declined against the dollar and the euro. Taiwan’s dollar approached a 13-year high before a report this week that economists predict will show inflation accelerated.

“There will be some downward bias for the euro during this week and even more next week,” said Roberto Mialich, a senior currency strategist at UniCredit SpA in Milan. “We will be very surprised if the euro manages to hold the gains we saw at the end of 2010. There is a heavy calendar of debt auctions in the coming weeks so this is a potential drag for the euro.”

The euro weakened 0.6 percent to $1.3311 as of 6:07 a.m. in New York, paring a decline of as much as 1 percent. It rose to $1.3425 on Dec. 31, the highest since Dec. 14, last week. The common currency fell 6.5 percent in 2010, its biggest decline since 2005, even as it appreciated 9.4 percent in the second half. The euro was little changed at 108.39 yen, after weakening to 107.80.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-02/dollar-rises-versus-euro-as-data-shows-slower-china-manufacturing-growth.html

[Ghost Dog]

63. Merkel uses New Year's speech to stress importance of euro

...

"Germany mastered the crisis like almost no other country," she said. "We even emerged from the crisis strengthened."

"Never have more people had work in reunified Germany than today. The number of unemployed is the lowest in almost 20 years," the chancellor said.

"We have come out of the crisis stronger. And that is, above all, thanks to you, my fellow citizens."

...

"Europe is currently facing a big test. We have to strengthen the euro. It is not just about our money. The euro is much more than a currency," Merkel said.

"Fortunately, we Europeans are unified. A united Europe is the guarantor for our peace and freedom. The euro forms the foundation of our prosperity," she said.

/... http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14744916,00.html

Greetings PBD, all :hi:

[Ghost Dog]

64. European stocks start new year with broad rally

PARIS, Jan 3 (Reuters) - European stocks ended higher on Monday, starting the new year with a broad-based rally led by construction and industrial shares as softer-than-expected factory inflation data from China eased concerns of a tightening in monetary policy.

Automakers also made lofty gains, boosted by German luxury car maker Porsche's 15 percent jump after a U.S. federal judge dismissed a lawsuit by hedge fund groups accusing the company of cornering the market in shares of Volkswagen AG.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed 1 percent higher at 1,132.30 points, following a 7.3 percent gain in 2010.

Trading was muted on Monday, however, as UK markets remained closed for a holiday. The volume on the FTSEurofirst 300 was only 55 percent of the index's 90-day average daily volume.

U.S. economic data also lifted the mood, with factory and housing data pointing to a strengthening recovery, though some saw clouds overhanging the market.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2011-01/18974190-european-stocks-start-new-year-with-broad-rally-020.htm

[Demeter]

29. Are We Going to Let the Biggest Financial Fraudsters Keep Their Money and Avoid Jail Time?

http://www.alternet.org/story/149365/are_we_going_to_let_the_biggest_financial_fraudsters_keep_their_money_and_avoid_jail_time

(I'M AFRAID TO LOOK--DEMETER)

[bread_and_roses]

43. I read the first page and simply can't go on

I feel unutterably weary ... you know, we shouldn't have to be reading this ... this is what our regulators and representatives and our DOJ are supposed to deal with ...

oh, and a K & R for PBD keeping the flame

[Demeter]

44. 100% agree

but, since our elected representatives have sold themselves to the highest bidders...We the People must step in.

[bread_and_roses]

50. This one is short and not so sweet -"Full Catastrophe Banking in 2011"

I understand and agree about "we the people" ... there are just some days...

Here's one short enough to get through:

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/01/03-5

Published on Monday, January 3, 2011 by BanksterUSA.org
Full Catastrophe Banking in 2011

by Mary Bottari

With a $4.7 trillion <1> dollar bailout under their belts with no harm done to their billion-dollar bonuses, don't expect Wall Street bankers to be chastened by the 2008 financial crisis. Below we list eight things to watch out for in 2011 that threaten to rock the financial system and undermine any recovery.

1) The Demise of Bank of America...

2) Robo-signers Wreaking Havoc...

3) MERS Madness...

4) Flash Crash Calamity...

5) Bigger Behemoth Banks...
.
6) Foreclosure Tsunami...

7) Bankrupt Cities and States...

8) Gas Prices above $4.00...

As we hope for the best in 2011, let's prepare for the worst. The big banks are sure to deliver.
© 2011 Bankster - USA

Mary Bottari is the Director of the Center for Media and Democracy's Real Economy Project <4> and editor of their www.BanksterUSA.org <5> site.

Short explanatory paragraph on each at the link.

edit to indicate omitted sections "..." and title

[Pale Blue Dot]

30. Index Futures Rise on Profit, Economy; Alcoa, Boeing, Amazon Shares Climb

U.S. stock-index futures rose as investors speculated the rally in equities will continue in 2011 as the world’s largest economy continues to improve and corporate earnings grow.

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, climbed 3.1 percent in Germany after Deutsche Bank AG recommended buying the shares. General Motors Co. shares advanced 1.9 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. rated the stock a new “buy.” Boeing Co. jumped 1.1 percent after the world’s largest aerospace company was upgraded to “overweight” at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in March rose 0.3 percent to 1,260.9 at 11:35 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased 0.6 percent to 11,582, while Nasdaq-100 Index futures climbed 0.8 percent to 2,234.5.

“2011 is off to a good start with investors believing that economic growth will continue,” said Lex van Dam, fund manager at London-based Hampstead Capital LLP, which oversees $500 million. “I expect the rebound to continue this year for the equity market.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-03/index-futures-rise-on-profit-economy-alcoa-boeing-amazon-shares-climb.html

[Roland99]

40. Futures: Big Bang Theory

S&P 500 +10.00 +0.80%
DOW +84.00 +0.73%
NASDAQ 2,240 +23.50 +1.06%

[Maeve]

32. Welcome to the job and thank you for taking it on!

It's not easy and some days it doesn't feel worth it, but know your efforts are appreciated! :hug:

[Mira]

35. Thank you so much PBD

I come here first thing every morning, and I'm so relieved you are carrying on with Stock Market Watch.
I can't imagine how much work this must be - thank you again!

[Festivito]

36. Debt: 12/30/2010 13,871,130,353,817.40 (UP 180,671,837.98) (Thu)

(Up little. Good job Pale Blue Dot. I hope I'm not scaring the children as in the toon today. Good day.)
The kids fixed the computer when I could not. Yikes.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,327,743,778,364.03 + 4,543,386,575,453.37
UP 91,969,590.77 + UP 88,702,247.21

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,215.08 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.65, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,033,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,596.86.
A family of three owes $133,790.58. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 450,286,730.39.
The average for the last 30 days would be 345,219,826.63.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 63 reports in 91 days of FY2011 averaging 4.91B$ per report, 3.40B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 752 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.1 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/30/2010 13,871,130,353,817.40 BHO (UP 3,244,253,304,904.32 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,309,507,322,925.70 ------------* * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,241,430,471,075.61 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/10/2010 +000,085,971,333.21 ------------*******
12/13/2010 -000,140,409,571.73 --- Mon
12/14/2010 +000,270,507,131.41 ------------********
12/15/2010 +035,075,952,728.32 ------------**********
12/16/2010 -002,942,603,716.29 --
12/17/2010 +002,071,215,295.43 ------------*********
12/20/2010 -000,083,147,973.47 ---- Mon
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******

38,401,756,948.62 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4678199&mesg_id=4678245

[Festivito]

84. Debt: 12/31/2010 14,025,215,218,708.52 (UP 154,084,864,891.12) (Fri, UP big. End of 1st quarter.)

(Up big. End of 1st quarter. FY11 Projection now higher than last years actual, but still lower than '09. Good day.)
Sleepy.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,390,476,088,043.35 + 4,634,739,130,665.17
UP 62,732,309,679.32 + UP 91,352,555,211.80

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,215.01 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.65, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,040,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,091.21.
A family of three owes $135,273.64. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,273,766,814.41.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,343,221,224.38.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 64 reports in 92 days of FY2011 averaging 7.24B$ per report, 5.04B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 751 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 18.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/31/2010 14,025,215,218,708.52 BHO (UP 3,398,338,169,795.44 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,463,592,187,816.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,839,251,614,707.96 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/13/2010 -000,140,409,571.73 --- Mon
12/14/2010 +000,270,507,131.41 ------------********
12/15/2010 +035,075,952,728.32 ------------**********
12/16/2010 -002,942,603,716.29 --
12/17/2010 +002,071,215,295.43 ------------*********
12/20/2010 -000,083,147,973.47 ---- Mon
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********

101,048,095,294.73 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4681202&mesg_id=4681273

[UpInArms]

38. thanks for keeping the torch held high, PBD!

:toast:

[Loge23]

46. Another sign of the Apocalypse - GS invests $450M in FB

Is it just me or does anyone else understand why FB is valued at $50B??? For what? Advertising? Playing Farmville? Checking on the whereabouts of your old friend from the 5th grade?
I don't get it. In a perfect irony, GS doesn't allow FB on it's corporate servers!
Check out some of the reactions to this news elsewhere in Business Insider today. My fave: "expect Farmville houses to be foreclosed on"

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-just-invested-450-million-in-a-website-thats-2011-1

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

48. The most underappreciated thread on DU.

:applause:
Appreciation

[Cerridwen]

49. Thank you! PBD for taking on this thread and continuing the SMW

tradition.

I'm a long time lurker and I think this makes about the 6th time I've ever posted in SMW. I don't expect that to change but I wanted to make a point to pop in this morning, your first day to wish you luck. :D

I have been and many of my friends have been, those who take on a job because no one else will take it. I find we are generally the type that are so aware of the importance of the job we took, that we work twice as hard to make a smashing go of it; thereby explaining why we really didn't want to do it in the first place but felt we had to in the final place. :D Geez, I hope that made sense.

Congratulations! Good Luck! My sympathies! Much thanks! for taking on this task.

To the regulars who populate SMW, you too, have my thanks and my high regard for keeping this thread ongoing and informative.

[Pale Blue Dot]

53. Jobs Are Trickling In, But Millions Have Given Up Looking For Work

U.S. private employers have recorded 11 consecutive months of job gains, yet the number of people who are so discouraged that they have given up searching for work stands at an all-time high.

Friday's employment report is expected to show the pace of payroll growth accelerated last month after a disappointing showing in November. However, consumers' assessment of the job market deteriorated in December, according to the Conference Board's latest consumer confidence survey.

This disconnect is symptomatic of the state of the labor market. Yes, it is recovering, but at a pace that can hardly keep up with population growth, let alone quickly bring down the 9.8 percent unemployment rate.

Private employment increased by an average of 106,000 per month through November. At that rate, it would take more than 6 years just to replace the jobs lost during the latest recession.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/03/unemployment-2011_n_803473.html

[xchrom]

60. kick

[TalkingDog]

62. I know the text is kind of faint, but it says

on the crown: PBD

(because you are our new "king")

And on the ribbon: "Your Grateful SMW"

(for letting us sleep in while you toil on our behalf)




Exspectata Rex rgis

[Capn Sunshine]

82. Nice!

I for one welcome our new Stock Market Watch Overlord.

[Ghost Dog]

66. Brazil govt sees exports reaching $228 bln in 2011

BRASILIA, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Brazil sees exports reaching $228 billion in 2011, up 13 percent from 2010, the country's trade ministry said on Monday.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2011-01/18974714-brazil-govt-sees-exports-reaching-dollar-228-bln-in-2011-020.htm

[Demeter]

69. Our fourth largest creditor, If they say true

[Demeter]

71. Dave Barry’s 2010 Year in Review

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/01/01/1992746/dave-barrys-2010-year-in-review.html

Dave Barry will either cheer you up, or drive you to drink, which will either cheer you up, or render you insensible for long enough that the worst will fade...

I think we could use some of that right now. After all, it's already Jan.3, and after 4PM Eastern....

[Pale Blue Dot]

72. Thank you everyone for the very nice welcome!

Wall Street was obviously pleased with my first day as well. :)

[Demeter]

74. Champagne was on clearance, that's all

[Pale Blue Dot]

73. Michael Hudson: Average Stock Held for 22 Seconds and Average Foreign Currency Position Held for 30

I'll repost this tomorrow. I think it's important, especially with people claiming the the stock market is an accurate measure of the economy.

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/01/michael-hudson-average-stock-held-for.html

Michael Hudson is a highly-regarded economist. He is a Distinguished Research Professor at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, who has advised the U.S., Canadian, Mexican and Latvian governments as well as the United Nations Institute for Training and Research. He is a former Wall Street economist at Chase Manhattan Bank who also helped establish the world’s first sovereign debt fund.

Yesterday, Hudson said:

Take any stock in the United States. The average time in which you hold a stock is--it's gone up from 20 seconds to 22 seconds in the last year. Most trades are computerized. Most trades are short-term. The average foreign currency investment lasts--it's up now to 30 seconds, up from 28 seconds last month.

See also this and this.