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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 06:20 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, January 5, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 4, 2011

Dow 11,691.18 +20.43 (+0.18%)

Nasdaq 2,681.25 -10.27 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,270.20 -1.67 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.32 -0.02 (-0.57%)
30-Year Bond 4.41 -0.01 (-0.32%)



Market Conditions During Trading Hours


Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold






Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:

The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:

LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 =
11









This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 06:38 AM
Response to Original message
1. Oil rises to near $92 as global equities rally
Oil prices rose to near $92 a barrel Tuesday, close to a two-year high, as a stock market rally to start 2011 boosted crude trader optimism.

By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark oil for February delivery was up 35 cents to $91.90 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 17 cents to settle at $91.55 on Monday.

"The commodity markets are clearly on the boil, feeding off the global growth story, and it looks like we are still going to head higher until a trigger materializes to set off a much-needed correction," said analyst Edward Meir at MF Global in New York.

U.S. stock markets advanced the first trading day of the year as data showed recent manufacturing activity and construction spending rose more than analysts were predicting.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 06:39 AM
Response to Original message
2. Today's Reports
Jan 05 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 12/31 NA NA -18.6%
Jan 05 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Dec NA NA -3.3%
Jan 05 08:15 ADP Employment Change Dec 120K 100K 93K
Jan 05 10:00 ISM Services Dec 56.0 55.7 55.0
Jan 05 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/01 NA NA -1.26M


Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#ixzz1A9zGU9P2
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #2
11. U.S. mortgage applications ebbed at year end
Applications for U.S. home mortgages ebbed in the last two weeks of the year amid the holiday season as loan rates hovered around their highest levels in seven months, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity rose 2.3 percent for the week ended December 31 and dipped 3.9 percent in the prior week.

The index has been dragged lower since October by applications to refinance loans, as a spike in interest rates reduced incentives for the homeowners that can qualify under today's tight credit standards. The MBA expects total loan originations will drop to $967 billion this year, down 36 percent from 2010 and less than half that of 2009.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates jumped to 4.93 percent in the week ending Dec. 24, the highest since May 7, before ending the year at 4.82 percent, the MBA said. The rate is three-quarters of a percentage point higher since early October, as reports of solid consumer spending, and expectations of government and Federal Reserve stimulus plans lifted 2011 outlooks.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40923123/ns/business-real_estate/
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:23 AM
Response to Reply #2
12. Downsizing falls to 13-year low
In a sign that the weak job market might have bottomed out, 2010 was the lowest year for job cuts in 13 years, according to a report issued Wednesday.

Employers announced plans to cut nearly 530,000 jobs in 2010, a 59% plunge from 2009, when job cuts reached a seven-year high, said Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a outplacement consulting firm. It was the lowest number of announced cuts since 1997, when 434,000 job cuts were announced.

Challenger also reported that job cuts plunged 34% in December to 32,000 from nearly 49,000 the month before. That was the lowest monthly job cut total since 2000.

Last year's holiday-season job cuts were less severe that the year before. Job cuts in December 2010 were 29% lower than the year-earlier level of about 45,000, according to the report.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/05/news/economy/challenger_ADP_jobs_reports/
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:25 AM
Response to Reply #2
13. ADP Employment Change - up significantly
297K
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:55 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. We'll see how that holds up
and what happens in Jan/Feb would be more important in seeing a trend (post-holiday)

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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #13
19. Framing the arguments about jobs, employment, unions, etc.
If I get time this afternoon I'll try to find the thread from this past week in which someone made what I thought was one of the most brilliant observations on the state of American industry --

It had to do with the "cost" of union contracts in the auto industry and how much of the cost of an "American" ( read, Detroit) built car was attributable to the fat union contracts. Someone said that the problem was that -- if I'm remembering correctly -- for every three people currently working on the assembly line and building the cars, there's a retiree they have to support from the sale of that car, and IT'S ALL THE FAULT OF THE UNIONS for getting cushy retirement packages. Someone else then pointed out that if you added in all the auto industry jobs that have been shipped overseas, it would make a far different equation. If THOSE jobs and THOSE workers -- now non-union, low-wage, contributing nothing to social security or income taxes -- were put back into the mix, there'd be no problem with comfortable retirement for union workers.

No one, of course, is going after the obese, bloated retirement packages of the executives. . . . .



TG, TT
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #2
32. U.S. December ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business (Text)
Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 12th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 57.1 percent in December, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 55 percent registered in November, and indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 6.5 percentage points to 63.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 13th consecutive month at a faster rate than in November. The New Orders Index increased 5.3 percentage points to 63 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points to 50.5 percent, indicating growth in employment for the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower rate. The Prices Index increased 6.8 percentage points to 70 percent, indicating that prices increased significantly in December. According to the NMI, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December. Respondents’ comments vary by company and industry, but overall are mostly positive about business conditions.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-05/u-s-december-ism-non-manufacturing-report-on-business-text-.html
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 06:42 AM
Response to Original message
3. GOP’s New Oversight Chair Asks Businesses Which Regulations Burden Them
We’ve noted that many of the incoming Republican chairs of powerful House committees have criticized the Obama administration’s “job-killing” regulation of the financial and energy sectors, among others.

One of these, Rep. Darrell Issa, has sent letters to more than 150 businesses, trade groups and think tanks calling for their input on which regulations are burdening them and hurting jobs, Politico reports. From the text of the letter, which NBC has posted:

The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is examining existing and proposed regulations that negatively impact the economy and jobs.

In fiscal year 2010, federal agencies promulgated 43 major new regulations. These regulations ranged from new limits on “effluent” discharges to new rules for Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations. The new limits on “effluent” discharges from construction sites will cost $810.8 million annually resulting in the closure of 147 construction firms and the loss of 7,257 jobs. In total, the administration estimated the cost, often referred to as the hidden tax, of the 43 new regulations to be approximately $28 billion, the highest single year increase in estimated burden on record, resulting in thousands of lost jobs. This new burden is on top of the $1.75 trillion estimated burden of existing regulations.

As a trade organization comprised of members that must comply with the regulatory state, I ask for your assistance in identifying existing and proposed regulations that have negatively impacted job growth in your members’ industry. Additionally, suggestions on reforming identified regulations and the rulemaking process would be appreciated. Please submit your response as soon as possible, preferably before January 10, 2010. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact my office at ...

http://www.propublica.org/blog/item/gops-new-oversight-chair-asks-businesses-which-regulations-burden-them

I'm glad to see that the Republicans aren't wasting any time with pillow talk...
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 06:45 AM
Response to Original message
4. Fed May Keep Easing at `Full Throttle' Until Jobless Rate Falls
Federal Reserve officials signaled they’ll probably push ahead with unprecedented stimulus until the recovery strengthens and many of the 15 million unemployed Americans find work.

The jobless rate hasn’t fallen below 9.4 percent since May 2009 and will probably average that figure this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Unemployment probably declined to 9.7 percent last month from 9.8 percent in November, according to the average estimate of a Bloomberg poll prior to a Labor Department employment report on Jan. 7.

While growth has picked up since the Fed announced plans on Nov. 3 to buy $600 billion of bonds, policy makers remain focused on their failure to achieve their goals of full employment and an inflation rate of about 2 percent, according to the minutes of their Dec. 14 meeting released yesterday. The recovery’s pace is likely to “remain modest, with unemployment and inflation deviating from the committee’s objectives for some time,” the minutes said.

“Right now it looks like the unemployment rate is the whole ball of wax,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co. in New York. “The majority just wants to keep going full throttle, and keep policy as accommodative as possible.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-05/fed-may-keep-easing-at-full-throttle-until-jobless-rate-falls.html
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. "The whole ball of wax" -- and their "full throttle" runaway train
will do absofuckinglutely nothing to bring down unemployment.

There's a part of me that wants to scream from the rooftops ARE YOU PEOPLE REALLY THAT FUCKING STUPID?????? but then I remember that it isn't stupidity at all. The truth is that they don't care. They don't give a fat rat's ass about the working classes.

They never have and they never will.




TG, TT
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:14 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. 'Full Throttle' easing is working quite well...

for the banks!

Ilargi at The Automatic Earth, says it best: You may think by now that Geithner and Bernanke and Larry Summers and Bob Rubin and all the rest of the pack are miserable failures and two sheets to the wind and all that, but you'd do better to give them a lot more credit than that.

Thing is, they never meant QE2 to do what they publicly claim they intended it for. This is nothing but another move to bail out lethally wounded banks.

For now, please understand that QE2 was never intended to jump-start the American economy. It was meant to prolong Wile E.'s 15 minutes of fame, to keep banks like BofA and Citi above water long enough to allow anyone who has some skin in it to get the hell out without triggering any alarm bells.

more...
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/11/november-5-2010-qe2-is-fooling-you.html

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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. Exactly.
And until the masses understand that, until at least enough of the masses who actually vote and do anything, understand that THEY ARE OUR ENEMY, nothing will happen. Nothing with change. Change! Ha, what an empty piece of shit campaign THAT was.

Yeah, I'm in one of my angry, bitter moods today. It kind of started about a week ago and isn't going away. It's what happens when you realize you're stuck in a shitty job that you desperately need and there is no escape and the bosses know it and they don't care and so they make it even shittier. Microcosm of the US of A.


I'd call 'em "wankers" again, but at least wankers are only screwin' themselves. These fuckers are raping all of us.



TG, TT
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:53 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. When people vote with a hay fork,,,,maybe?? n/t
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. That's going to take awhile

Most people still have income from a job, or savings, or unemployment compensation. And food to eat.

When the number of hungry, poor, homeless people are the majority, then I think we will see the pitchforks.

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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 09:09 AM
Response to Reply #18
22. We are far from true 3rd world status
And I know I've tossed that hyperbolic phrase around myself more often than I should have, because really, we are nowhere even close.

More important, however, is that we are actually very close to a potential turn around. It really wouldn't take much, at least imho.

1. Start with raising the cap on FICA. Full employer & employee contributions on all job-related income: wages, salary, bonuses, stock, etc. If it counts as income, you pay FICA on it.

2. Tax capital gains at the same rate as other income.

3. Raise the upper income tax bracket to 40%.

4. Tax inheritance income at the same rate as other income.


Income is income. Period.



TG, TT
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #22
36. Is America About To Slide Into Third World Status? MICHAEL HUDSON
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #9
34. Call me Suzy Sunshine....
but actually I think people voted as a warning to not only the Dems but to all politician. I suspect that if those GOP in office don't learn that, they will be out the next cycle. One term wonders all. Obama had a mandate for a change and didn't use it. Look at the polls. People wanted health care with a single provider-and Obama listened to the insurance companies. People want to raise taxes on the wealth and tax estates and again Obama did the exact opposite. I really think both parties are misreading the signs and trying to co opt the message to their benefit.

At least that is what I am beginning to think from talking with some of my conservative friends. We have more common ground than you might realize. We are being played off one another.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. The Conservatives/Tea Party Know Something Is Wrong
and if they had the ability to take in factual information, instead of arguing from their fantasy/religious/bigotry world-view, we could join forces and clean house in short order.

A LEADER would take those emotions, channel them into significant policy changes, and win hearts and minds on both sides.

Obama blew it bigtime. I hope Citibank, GS, JPMorgan etc, welch on him. Of course, with a Nobel and several million in royalties and speaking engagements, he'll keep Michelle in couture for as long as the dollar has some value...
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #37
42. This is where the M$M fails us all...
Edited on Wed Jan-05-11 01:22 PM by AnneD
Rush, Hannity, Billo, and Beck are held out as knowledgeable journalist and Faux has a court judgment that says they don't have to report the news on their news shows.

This is why wikileaks is so important and why TBTB have tried to squash Julian Assange. It shows the US M$M up for the prostitutes they are, and my sincere apologies to those hard working soiled doves for comparing them to journalists.

Edited to add-I sincerely believe the truth will come out, and nothing is a better antiseptic than the light of day.
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nc4bo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #37
50. Soon we'll be hearing teabaggers refer to their chosen ones as TPINOs.
Add that to the DINOs, RINO's and other shapeshifters. As a matter of fact, the lot of them should just be referred to in their true name,($).

When will we ever learn....never I guess. :shrug:
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #34
51. I disagree
1. I don't think people who voted for pukes did so as a warning to Dems. They voted for pukes because they don't know any better, they're gullible, and they're afraid. They don't even know what they're afraid of, because they think they're afraid of "socialism," and yet they really want single-payer health care (socialism), higher taxes on the rich (socialism), good public schools (socialism), etc. These people aren't necessarily stupid, but they are very very afraid, and fear trumps everything.

2. The goopers have no intention of learning anything from the election. They are going to consolidate their power, redistrict the states to their advantage, funnel lots of corporate cash into their campaigns, and scream the "Dems are EVIL!" song into everyone's ears 24/7 until virtually everyone believes it. They will have the sheeple believing Obama is the anti-christ. They will move fundamentalist christianity into the public square and use religion exactly as it is in Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, etc.

3. The puke leaders are not misreading the signs; they know exactly what the mood of the country is and THEY DON'T CARE, except to the extent that they will exploit the fears and do everything they can to silence any voices of reason.

4. Of course we have more "common ground" with our "conservative" neighbors. But it's not more than we realize; it's more than THEY realize. The difference is that we know it, and they are too afraid to know it. Irrational fear is a very difficult thing to overcome, and with people like that, the more "facts" you throw at them, the more likely they are to dig in their heels. They are very much afraid of the truth, and will remain in denial forever. Do not try to reason with the unreasonable -- it simply can't be done.


TG, TT
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 06:46 AM
Response to Original message
5. World Food Prices Rise to Record on Sugar, Meat Costs
World food prices rose to a record in December on higher sugar and meat costs, the United Nations said, exceeding levels reached in 2008 that sparked deadly riots from Haiti to Egypt.

An index of 55 food commodities maintained by the Food and Agriculture Organization climbed for a sixth month to 214.7 points, above the previous all-time high of 213.5 set in June 2008, according to a monthly report posted on the Rome-based UN agency’s website today. The gauges for sugar and meat prices advanced to records.

Sugar climbed for a third year in a row in 2010, and corn jumped the most in four years in Chicago. Food prices may gain further unless global grain production rises “significantly” in 2011, the FAO said Nov. 17. At least 13 people died last year in Mozambique in protests against planned increases in bread and water prices.

“There is still, unfortunately, the potential for grain prices to strengthen on the back of a lot of uncertainty,” Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the FAO, said by phone today. “If anything goes wrong with the South American crop, there is plenty of room for them to increase further.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-05/global-food-prices-climb-to-record-on-cereal-sugar-costs-un-agency-says.html
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 06:49 AM
Response to Original message
6. Debt: 01/03/2011 13,997,932,781,828.89 (DOWN 27,282,436,879.63) (Mon, DOWN some.)
(Down some. FY11 Projection now higher than last years actual, but still lower than '09. The two components of the debt are shown, today, in red in honor of today's toon. Funnier is how deficits only matter when Democrats have some control, and ignored when Republicans have control. Good day.)
Talkative day.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,385,079,979,612.71 + 4,612,852,802,216.18
DOWN 5,396,108,430.64 + DOWN 21,886,328,448.99

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,214.79 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,062,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,000.37.
A family of three owes $135,001.12. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,473,683,765.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,480,701,427.89.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,303,904,607.63.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 65 reports in 95 days of FY2011 averaging 6.71B$ per report, 4.59B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 748 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.0 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/03/2011 13,997,932,781,828.89 BHO (UP 3,371,055,732,915.81 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,436,309,750,937.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,676,347,990,442.55 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/14/2010 +000,270,507,131.41 ------------********
12/15/2010 +035,075,952,728.32 ------------**********
12/16/2010 -002,942,603,716.29 --
12/17/2010 +002,071,215,295.43 ------------*********
12/20/2010 -000,083,147,973.47 ---- Mon
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon

95,792,396,435.82 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4682491&mesg_id=4682503
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #6
55. Debt: 01/04/2011 14,014,049,043,294.41 (UP 16,116,261,465.52) (Tue, DOWN a little.)
(Good day.)
Emergencies emergencies.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,384,994,677,498.73 + 4,629,054,365,795.68
DOWN 85,302,113.98 + UP 16,201,563,579.50

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,214.71 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,069,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,051.14.
A family of three owes $135,153.42. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 7,849,448,013.14.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,017,910,143.41.
The average for the last 32 days would be 5,641,790,759.44.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 66 reports in 96 days of FY2011 averaging 6.85B$ per report, 4.71B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 747 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.0 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/04/2011 14,014,049,043,294.41 BHO (UP 3,387,171,994,381.33 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,452,426,012,402.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,720,161,401,322.77 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/15/2010 +035,075,952,728.32 ------------**********
12/16/2010 -002,942,603,716.29 --
12/17/2010 +002,071,215,295.43 ------------*********
12/20/2010 -000,083,147,973.47 ---- Mon
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon
01/04/2011 -000,085,302,113.98 ----

95,436,587,190.43 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4683625&mesg_id=4683645
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 06:51 AM
Response to Original message
7. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline; Alcoa, Colgate, Avon Products Retreat
U.S. stock-index futures fell, signaling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may retreat for a second day, as investors awaited a service industries report to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

Alcoa Inc. lost 1.8 percent in German trading as Citigroup Inc. lowered its recommendation for the aluminum producer. Colgate-Palmolive Co. and Avon Products Inc. retreated after UBS AG downgraded the shares. Mosaic Co. rallied 4.1 percent after the fertilizer company reported better-than-estimated earnings.

Futures on the benchmark S&P 500 expiring in March dropped 0.6 percent to 1,257.2 at 11:07 a.m. in London. The gauge surged 6.5 percent in December, extending 2010’s advance to 13 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 0.5 percent to 11,561 today, and futures on the Nasdaq-100 Index retreated 0.6 percent to 2,232.75.

“Markets are coming off the back of a very strong rally in December so it is inevitable that we may lose some of that momentum,” said Henk Potts, a London-based equity strategist at Barclays Wealth, which oversees $239 billion. “There are some macro risks out there so investors are obviously looking for supporting evidence about the economic picture.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-05/u-s-stock-index-futures-decline-alcoa-colgate-avon-products-retreat.html
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 07:09 AM
Response to Original message
8. Recommend
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 08:57 AM
Response to Original message
17. Petroleum industry pushes for more drilling
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-industry-pushes-for-regulatory-relief-2011-01-04?dist=beforebell

The head of the petroleum industry’s trade group said Tuesday that he plans to push Congress to open up more areas of the United States to drilling, just one day before newly ascendent Republicans take control of the House of Representatives.

Jack Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute, also urged Washington to quickly clarify its rules on drilling, speed up the permit process and refrain from new industry taxes.

Without faster action, he warned, thousands of jobs would be lost and the federal government could miss out on badly needed revenue from lease sales and other taxes generated by petroleum-industry development.

“Energy growth is economic growth,” said Gerard, who asserted that the petroleum industry accounts directly and indirectly for 9.2 million U.S. jobs, or one of every 14 nonfarm workers.


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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
20. Repost History of Banking and Money
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. Demeter - please PM me the link you wanted me to add.
I didn't have time to check in out and update the code this morning.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 09:11 AM
Response to Reply #21
24. WELL, THIS IS ONE OF THEM
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Hotler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #20
35. WOW! I hate the banksters so much more now. nt.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 09:10 AM
Response to Original message
23. BoA Settles $2B Claim On Home Loan Fault
Edited on Wed Jan-05-11 09:18 AM by Demeter
THE DEVIL'S IN THE DETAILS...

http://www.emii.com/Articles/2742447/Home-Page/Top-Stories/BoA-Settles-2B-Claim-On-Home-Loan-Fault.aspx

Bank of America has paid out $2.6 billion over allegations leveled by U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that it sold loans based on faulty information, according to Bloomberg. In addition to Fannie and Freddie, McLean also purchased the mortgages in question, and the firms are pushing to have loans bought back by lenders that used incorrect data on income or home values that were not correct. The bank announced that it would include an additional $3 billion provision in fourth quarter results.

In October, Bank of America faced a $12.9 billion total of putback demands on mortgages largely associated with government-entities, and announced at the time that $4.4 billion was reserved for handling costs related to the issue. The announcement made on Monday outlines an agreement that will see Bank of America pay $1.28 billion in cash to Freddie Mac over claims on 787,000 loans through 2008 made through Countrywide Financial, while $1.34 will be paid to Fannie Mae.

THE DETAILS:


Tim Geithner, Fannie, And Freddie Are Getting Slammed For The New Stealth Bailout Of Bank Of America By Joe Weisenthal


The news that Bank of America had settled its putback exposure with the GSEs sent the stock surging 7% yesterday.

That kind of move has lots of folks screaming bailout. As Barry Ritholtz and Colin Barr at Fortune point out, Bank of America just settled for about $.01 on the dollar.

Says Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics: "This looks to me like a gift from Tim Geithner... there's politics all over this."


This is almost certainly true, but also not shocking at all, given the potential ramifications of any serious hit to the banks' balance sheets.

Of course, this isn't the end of the story, and Bank of America still has its massive exposure to non-agency MBS holders, including PIMCO, the New York Fed, and the Monolines, like MBIA.

Here's That Devastating Report On Bank Of America That Everyone Is Talking About Today

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-america-mortgage-report-2010-10#-1



IN CASE YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, WE WAS HAD, AGAIN. AND WE WERE PROBABLY "PAID" WITH MONEY WE HAD GIVEN THEM...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
25. European nations begin seizing private pensions
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Adam-Smith-Institute-Blog/2011/0102/European-nations-begin-seizing-private-pensions

People’s retirement savings are a convenient source of revenue for governments that don’t want to reduce spending or make privatizations. As most pension schemes in Europe are organised by the state, European ministers of finance have a facilitated access to the savings accumulated there, and it is only logical that they try to get a hold of this money for their own ends. In recent weeks I have noted five such attempts: Three situations concern private personal savings; two others refer to national funds.

The most striking example is Hungary, where last month the government made the citizens an offer they could not refuse. They could either remit their individual retirement savings to the state, or lose the right to the basic state pension (but still have an obligation to pay contributions for it). In this extortionate way, the government wants to gain control over $14bn of individual retirement savings.

The Bulgarian government has come up with a similar idea. $300m of private early retirement savings was supposed to be transferred to the state pension scheme. The government gave way after trade unions protested and finally only about 20% of the original plans were implemented.
RELATED: Europe's 5 most generous pension systems

A slightly less drastic situation is developing in Poland. The government wants to transfer of 1/3 of future contributions from individual retirement accounts to the state-run social security system. Since this system does not back its liabilities with stocks or even bonds, the money taken away from the savers will go directly to the state treasury and savers will lose about $2.3bn a year. The Polish government is more generous than the Hungarian one, but only because it wants to seize just 1/3 of the future savings and also allows the citizens to keep the money accumulated so far.

The fourth example is Ireland...The final example is France... It looks like although the governments are able to enforce general participation in pension schemes, they do not seem to be the best guardians of the money accumulated there.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
26. The Rise of the New Global Elite
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 09:27 AM
Response to Original message
27. Friends With Benefits By WILLIAM D. COHAN (GS AND FACEBOOK)
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/04/friends-with-benefits/

Can Goldman Sachs, the profit-seeking missile of high finance, really make money by investing $450 million in Facebook, at a vertigo-inducing price that values the social-networking company at $50 billion?

On first blush, the answer would appear to be no. After all, in May 2009, the company was valued at $10 billion. Last August, Facebook was valued at $27 billion and now it’s $50 billion — for a company with a reported $2 billion in revenue and negligible profits. If General Electric, with 2010 revenue of around $150 billion, traded at a similar multiple of revenue, it would be worth $3.75 trillion instead of $200 billion. Facebook is now considered to be worth more than Time Warner, DuPont and Goldman’s rival Morgan Stanley.

Just last week, Facebook’s shares were said to be trading on a private-market exchange at a valuation of $42.4 billion. Thanks to Goldman’s imprimatur, Facebook’s value increased 20 percent virtually overnight. Can Goldman really expect to squeeze more water from this stone?

Sadly, yes.

To understand why, we have to go to the heart of the many problems in the way the Wall Street cartel does business, despite the promised reforms of the Dodd-Frank law. With Goldman’s investment in Facebook, we have a front-row seat to the process by which Wall Street creates and inflates financial bubbles...
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Johnny Harpo Donating Member (330 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #27
33. GS & Facebook...An Advertising Pipeline?
When wondering why GS would make this move this thought occured:

Is the end game of this (aside from making even more money) an attempt to gain an advertising pipeline to the younger segment of our society, in order to lure them further into this mess with enticements of investment opportunites that will reap them financial gain for little or no effort on their part?

Sad to say there is a 'younger' population out there that just ARE NOT paying any attention to any of what is discussed daily in SMW.

By the time this segement realizes that there is something wrong, it will be too late for them also.

Funny thing is....They are already wondering why their 'back-sides' are hurting.

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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 10:17 AM
Response to Original message
28. kick
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #28
29. again
And where is everyone?
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 10:46 AM
Response to Reply #29
30. i don't know. it's usually livelier -- but i'm guessing new year slow down. nt
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 01:04 PM
Response to Reply #29
41. I am sleeping much better lately
and Wednesday is tutoring day...
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 11:15 AM
Response to Original message
31. World Bank issues bond denominated in Chinese yuan
The yuan-denominated bond is being issued to promote the use of the Chinese currency in international markets.

It will raise 500m yuan ($76m; £49m).

Other bodies, including the Asian Development Bank, and firms such as McDonald's and Caterpillar have issued yuan bonds.

China's stake in the World Bank, which gives financial and technical assistance to developing countries, is set to increase.

It could eventually see China as the third-largest stakeholder in the lender after the US and Japan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12117280
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 12:36 PM
Response to Original message
38. Kick
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Viva_La_Revolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 12:47 PM
Response to Original message
39. Kick!
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 01:03 PM
Response to Original message
40. Oliphant rides again
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 02:09 PM
Response to Original message
43. Wall Street Preparing $4 Billion of Commercial-Mortgage Bonds
HERE WE GO AGAIN!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/wall-street-banks-preparing-4-billion-of-commercial-mortgage-bond-sales.html


...Deutsche Bank and UBS are teaming up to issue as much as $2.5 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities linked to loans on office buildings, shopping malls and hotels in what would be the largest offering of its kind since the market froze in June 2008, according to a person familiar with the deal. JPMorgan plans to sell $1.5 billion in similar debt, a person familiar with that sale said.

Wall Street banks are building a pipeline of property loans to package into bonds as investors seek higher yields while the Federal Reserve holds its benchmark interest rate near zero. Sales of securities backed by mortgages on commercial property may quadruple to $45 billion in 2011, according to JPMorgan. Issuance plunged to $3.4 billion in 2009 after the credit markets seized during the financial crisis.

“CMBS new issue still offers attractive returns relative to other fixed-income products,” said Andrew Solomon, a managing director at Angelo Gordon & Co. in New York. “Even with new issuance picking up steam, the net supply of CMBS is still shrinking while demand is increasing. I’m pretty sure that means spreads are going to continue tightening.”

Both the Deutsche Bank and UBS transaction and the JPMorgan offering are slated for next month.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 02:14 PM
Response to Original message
44. Legal expenses refused in trading probe


Some technology and hedge fund executives caught in the US investigation into alleged insider trading on Wall Street are having trouble hiring lawyers because their employers are refusing to pay their legal fees, attorneys say


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/FG6LAA/IYVEQP/T10SH/26R947/S37K6P/OS/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=5

THAT'S A NEW TWIST ON THE 'GOLDEN HANDCUFFS' THEME...HOPE THEY SAVED THEIR BONUS MONEY FOR A LAWYER'S SERVICES...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 02:15 PM
Response to Original message
45. BP shares surge on spill compensation

Shares in the UK oil group jump as much as 7% in London following reports that its pay-outs for the Gulf of Mexico spill might be much lower than anticipated


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/FG6LAA/IYVEQP/T10SH/26R947/8AFLY7/OS/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=5
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
46. How did a Relatively Small Number of Subprime Loans Cause a Record Crisis? By William K. Black

A number of analyses of the U.S. and global crisis begin by attempting to explain what they assume to be a paradox – how could so small a market segment (subprime housing and CDOs backed by subprime) have caused (1) the largest financial bubble in history, (2) a U.S. economic crisis, and (3) a nearly global crisis? To these scholars the obvious answer is that subprime lending could not have caused this traumatic trifecta. If follows that the importance of subprime lending must be overstated and there must be other, more powerful causes of the trifecta.

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/economics/11/01/744936/how-did-a-relatively-small-number-of-subprime-loans-cause-a-record-crisis#ixzz1ABrdO6Mu
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jtuck004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #46
54. They didn't.

Articles that discuss the crisis at the level of home loans are really doing a disservice, it seems to me.

This crisis was not the fault of the homeowners. Yes, there were some that couldn't pay, there were liar loans, there were people who took advantage, yada, yada, yada. But it was the leverage the investment banks took on and the selling of insurance without sufficient reserves to people without an insurable interest that caused this, not the home loans.

An example: I loan you a dollar, then I go out and borrow $750. then I take bets of another few thousand dollars on whether you will pay me back or not. You later tell me you can't pay me the $1, so I default on my $750 loan. My friends in the government send me your tax money, I reimburse some of the people I defrauded, and then I conspire with the government to take your home. Nobody in their right mind would point at you as the cause of the fallout that would ensue, even though you got to keep the dollar, nor at the person who arranged the loan.

Now multiply those numbers by $1 trillion, and place the blame on the homeowners instead of the investment banks.That is exactly what happened/is happening. The total subprime market was $1.3 trillion, or thereabouts, of a $13 trillion, or thereabouts, mortgage market. AIG, Goldman, Deutsche and others sold collateralized debt obligations, (CDO's), or CDO squared, or CDO cubed, and credit default swaps - insurance - on those bonds. Somewhere in the region of $450 to $750 trillion in promised payouts or value - no one really knows how much, because it all existed in the shadow world of off-the-books banking allowed between sophisticated investors by the bills passed during the end of the Clinton administration. (Such as the Commodities Futures Modernization Act, about which Mr. Clinton says he got "bad advice"). Though that built the engine, however, it was the lax regulation and close ties between the investment banks, the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and the Congress that fueled the crisis and flew it into the global economy.

The scheme rested on two key assumptions:

1) The _entire_ US housing market had never, in modern memory, decreased in value.
2) Prices would keep going up.

Books published since that time make it clear that as early as 2005 AIG and other banks were aware of the problem, pulling in private funding to cover their creation of perhaps the largest Ponzi scheme ever known. A $14,000/yr strawberry picker in California sold on the idea that he could afford a $750,000 house didn't cause this. Neither did the mortgage broker who held a contract up to a window to copy a signature onto a different contract. But that is the experience most people can relate to, so they point the finger at people who couldn't pay the mortgage on a home, or at a crooked individual mortgage broker, instead of the real perpetrators.

So despite the tens of millions unemployed, out of their homes, and with not enough food, the bankers and their friends are getting richer, solidifying their positions, continuing to profit from their illicit behavior, leaving us with an economy in crisis. "Economic recovery" is merely a show, spinning plates on sticks of taxpayer money. Banker salaries are larger than ever, the derivatives market is increasing again.

Like those spinning plates, the economy is going to come down off that taxpayer money, leaving us with two questions. The first is whether it will be gentle, with decades of higher unemployment and poverty, or a real crash that disrupts food, medical care, power, etc., putting us in a state of emergency.

The other question is whether people will figure out and take action against the real villains. Because if we don't, we are lost.


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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 02:23 PM
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47. The State of Native America: Very Unemployed and Mostly Ignored
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
48. THE VIDEO LIBRARY
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 02:29 PM
Response to Original message
49. U.S. Embassy Turned Blind Eye as Suspected CIA Banker Allen Stanford Bilked Investors, Secret Cables
http://antifascist-calling.blogspot.com/2011/01/us-embassy-turned-blind-eye-as.html

While R. Allen Stanford was happily ensconced on the Caribbean island of Antigua, allegedly bribing officials there as he expanded his banking empire, secret cables released by the whistleblowing web site WikiLeaks revealed that U.S. Embassy officials held themselves at arm's length even as they provided the accused fraudster with political cover.

As Antifascist Calling reported last summer, Stanford International Bank (SIB) and Stanford Financial Group (SFG), once conservatively valued at $50 billion, were no more legitimate than penny stock frauds or advance fee scams on the internet. To make matters worse, for years federal regulators turned a blind eye towards the bank's reckless practices.

As it turns out, so too did the U.S. Embassy.

Cablegate file 06BRIDGETOWN755, "Cricket Breakfast Serves Up First Encounter with Allen Stanford," dated 03 May 2006, revealed that "Ambassador Kramer met controversial Texan billionaire Allen Stanford for the first time at an April 21 'Legends of Cricket' breakfast in Barbados."

The confidential embassy cable reported that "Stanford bent the Ambassador's ear concerning his significant new tourism and property investments in Antigua and plans for his Caribbean Star and Caribbean Sun airlines."
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 03:29 PM
Response to Original message
52. Rich Rodriguez fired as University of Michigan coach. For real this time.
Rich Rodriguez fired as coach at Michigan after three seasons

Rich Rodriguez's tenure as Michigan's head football coach is officially over.

Michigan athletics director Dave Brandon made the announcement at a news conference Wednesday.

The news comes just a day after rumors swirled Tuesday about the coach's fate, many of which said Brandon has already decided to fire the coach. But Brandon said Wednesday that Tuesday's meeting was purely informational -- as he and Rodriguez looked into the state of the program on many levels.

. . .

In his three years in Ann Arbor, Rodriguez was 15-22 overall, including a 7-6 campaign in 2010 that ended in a 52-14 loss to Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl. He was 6-18 in Big Ten games in his three years with the Wolverines. Compounding on-the-field struggles were an NCAA infractions case and sanctions from violations of practice and training regulations by Rodriguez's staff. The school was hit with three years probation in the case.


from: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/01/rich-rodriguez-michigan-wolverines-fired--/1

Yesterday, the media reported Rich Rod was fired. Then there was an official announcement that he wasn't. In the meantime, though, many people congratulated the Athletic Director for firing him, and praised the decision to do so, calling it obvious and detailing the many reasons for doing so. they couldn't keep the guy after all that.

The investment question is how can we cash in on the interest in Jim Harbaugh? He is the front runner for the Michigan job, but is also mentioned as first choice of the 49ers, Broncos, and other NFL teams. He could probably get $10 million a year if he wants.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-11 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #52
53. I think it's absurd to the point of obscenity, but then that's par for the
course (sports pun intended) in our wonderful economy.

Harbaugh gets $10 million for sitting on the sidelines while young men risk life and limb in a game. The university makes more millions from broadcast rights and merchandising, while the players get nothing. Professors get a pittance in comparison, teachers are excoriated for trying to undo generations of poverty, but Jim Harbaugh will get millions so maybe one or two of the players who play for nothing will get a chance to play in the NFL.

And while I confess I did watch the entire Rose Bowl game where little TCU and the Horned Frogs took on the mighty Wisconsin Badgers, I just about threw up when the announcers said it now costs FORTY ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS A YEAR to attend TCU. That, too, is obscene.



TG, TT
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