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Some sites say more - but the BLS numbers are based on a monthly census with a long history. There is a black box of statistical manipulation in there that does seem to vary considerably more than it should on a month-to-month basis, but over time seems to move back toward what would make sense. But these numbers are good enough to work with. That 30 million includes people who are unemployed, tens of millions who need to work full-time but the hours aren't there, nearly a million and a half who are so dis-heartened and tired of rejection they haven't looked in the last 4 weeks. I heard the other day our local state unemployment service has about 600 jobs on their logs, but about 30,000 people looking. And that doesn't count the other 50 people in line in countries like China, Vietnam, India where people will do that job for pennies on the dollars employers here would pay.
According to the head of the BLS at various times, without even touching the unemployed we need about 130K to 150K jobs each month just to employ those entering the work force. So to decrease the unemployment numbers we need more than that. To get us back to 5-6% would require that we employ about 20 million people - not only those who are completely unemployed (about 15 million, but millions of people who are working part-time not by choice, and the millions who will re-enter active looking and working from either end of the far spectrum once there are enough jobs for everyone - not one for every 6, or 10, or 50 people.
Let's say we create 300,000 jobs every month - 150K for people entering the market, 150K for the unemployed. It would be 2021 before we reached around 6% unemployment.
But that is still a pipe dream - Here's the last year's job creation in thousands from the BLS announcements.
Jan 14 Fed 39 Mar 208 Apr 313 May 432 June -221 July -131 Aug -54 Sep -95K Oct 151K Nov 39K Dec 103K
That rather pathetic average is about 66 thousand jobs a month. Notice the big months when the temporary census jobs inflated the numbers. Take those away and it looks worse than grim.
So unless something big changes, and except for one month, and three others where the once in a decade Census offered full-time temporary jobs,we have not yet demonstrated that we can create enough jobs to do that.
Let's look back in history at the greatest job creation during the term of any modern president:
AVG Monthly 233 321 179 233 280 250 264 163 So even with the help of the newly emerging Internet, and the Y2K scare that employed tens of thousands to update and install systems, there was only 1 month in the entire Clinton administration that we reached 300K.
And look at the jobs we are creating. The VAST majority are home health care, retail, travel and leisure industry. About 1 in 3 people now have an income of $20,000 a year or LESS.
So as we get all these people employed, these people who used to make $40K, $60K, $80,000 a year, working for 1/4 of what they used to get. Now all their money goes to house payments, food, gas. No money left for taxes for schools, police, fire. No money left for buying things other people might make. Tried to raise 1 kid, or 1, on anything approaching $20K a year. How much you have left over every month?
Even as we get people employed, we are losing others. The majority of the states are insolvent. Employing people in jobs that pay 1/4 of the taxes that they used to pay is going to cause state governments to cut people - teachers, others.
Now you have to employ them as well.
I am not sure people are looking at the ways in which the government is propping up our economy, and where those efforts are starting to fail. There are still hundreds of billions going to the reserve banks, who can still borrow at .0734 and loan out at 3,5,7,24%, or 124%. The Financial Accounting Board (FASB) STILL has a rule in place that says banks must value homes at the mythical level they were at during the boom - else banks would be shutting their doors by the thousands. States have been relying on the fed to pay them for these long weeks of unemployment, to pay money that used to support education - all of that is ending, slowly but surely.
Oh yeah, and there is a $2pointsomething TRILLION shortfall in pension funds. Like the little town in (Alabama?) that recently quit sending pension checks to their retired employees (that's illegal, but they ran out of money) there may be tens of thousands of people emerging from retirement to look for work soon. There go all those calculations...
So throw any figure in there that suits you. Think we can create 200K private sector jobs a month? That's 50,000 a month off of unemployment. that's 33.3 years, or about April of 2041.
That's why I think at least 20 years - and that is not only not gonna be a fun 20 years, what we have at the end may not be anyone's idea of the good life.
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