Unemployment Rate To Remain Above 9 Percent Through 2011-Will Remain Above 'Natural Rate' Until 2016

[onehandle]

Source: Huffington Post

The jobs crisis isn't going anywhere, according to the latest forecast from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which puts the national unemployment rate above 9 percent through 2011 and 8 percent through 2012.

Unemployment will fall to a more "natural rate" only in 2016, when CBO estimates it will reach 5.3 percent -- a projection roughly in line with private-sector figures.

"The recovery in employment has been slowed not only by the moderate growth in output in the past year and a half but also by structural changes in the labor market, such as a mismatch between the requirements of available jobs and the skills of job seekers, that have hindered the reemployment of workers who have lost their job," CBO's report says.

The degree to which the unemployment crisis is structural, as opposed to cyclical, is hotly debated by economists, with progressives like Paul Krugman arguing that structural unemployment is a fake problem "which mainly serves as an excuse for not pursuing real solutions." Many argue that the even drop in employment across industries shows that lack of overall demand is the problem, with stimulus spending the answer. Others have said pay disparities between workers with different levels of education show the problem is at least partly structural.

Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/26/cbo-unemployment-rate-above-9-2016_n_814275.html

[area51]

1. " ...a mismatch between the requirements of available jobs and the skills of job seekers,..."

*cough* bullshit *cough*

[HereSince1628]

4. Not every person has the skills

to put up with the bullshit that moving into 36hr per week entry level jobs in retail provides.

Some of us just lost it when we bought into the idea that if you were honest, educated and worked hard things would pan out for you.

So we'll do the cycle of "get a shit job" and "lose a shit job" for the forseeable future.

That'll keep unemployment high until some disease comes along and eliminates our uninsured nasty attitude infected corpses from the wannabes in the labor force.

[KansDem]

7. Truer words haven't been spoken for quite some time

...to put up with the bullshit that moving into 36hr per week entry level jobs in retail provides. Some of us just lost it when we bought into the idea that if you were honest, educated and worked hard things would pan out for you.

Remember the "to get a good job, get a good education" ad from the 1960s (1970s) that showed Abe Lincoln at an unemployment office (present day). He's asked what education he has and he says, humbly, "...did a little reading on my own...never went to college," and the unemployment counselor shakes his head and says, "You're not going anywhere without that sheepskin!" He then pulls out a form and says, "...how about janitor?" or some such nonsense.

Wow! Only one way to go...college! Until the bottom falls out of the job market...x(

Then you have full-time debt on part-time wages...

[madrchsod]

9. well here`s my....

to you for expressing what one whole hell of a lot of people are thinking.

[nyy1998]

13. Amen, as a recent college graduate who's unemployed, I couldn't agree more nt

[somone]

2. And corporate CEOs still need more certainty

like on what to do with their sky-high piles of cash

[Pterodactyl]

3. If true, that would suck.

[theoldman]

5. The Republicans will try to use the unemployment numbers to defeat Obama in 2012.

Here is how they will do it. They will cut the federal budget in areas that will result in the loss of jobs. They will then take credit for reducing the federal deficit and debt and pass the blame for the loss of jobs on to Obama. Every unbiased economist knows that you cannot reduce federal spending during a recession. The government has to spend money to create jobs. The present stimulus package kept us from losing jobs, it did not create jobs.

[onehandle]

6. They will try. Their clients, the rich, have been hoarding cash and can ride out anything.

They will destroy millions of lives to win.

[Psephos]

12. We hired Obama to fix the problem. Either he does, or we get someone who can.

I, along with 30 million of my best friends, have heard all the excuses I care to hear. There are always a million reasons to blame someone else. That is the nature of politics. A real leader does not use the crutch of blame.

Either someone can do the job, or they can't. Of course the pugs can and will make things exceedingly tough...so we need someone exceedingly tougher. Fixing unemployment takes someone who understands how to deal with the situation AS IT IS, not as it "should" be.

If Obama's not up to it, then it's time to find a Dem who is. I don't need instant results, but all I've seen so far is lack of focus and no convincing evidence of results.

[ridethemile]

8. Noooooo

How depressing.

[Marnie]

10. Sounds to me

like Obama better start making up with his base. Looks like he may need us in 2012.

Maybe he should look what happened to Sandord, he didn't kowtow to his rich wife enough and now he has no latin hottie to lay with, no wive to sleep with and no big inheritance of hers to play with.

[PSPS]

11. Bring the factories home.

[Knight Hawk]

18. Exactly!

Everyone in the country can have three PHD's but if we do not have factories to produce something that people here and abroad will buy it will not due us any good.Those blue collar jobs of yesteryear look mighty good right now.

[jtuck004]

14. To reach 5 percent by 2016 would require over 483,000 new private sector jobs

every month between now and 2016 to employ the 150K or so entering the market each month, plus about 20 million of the currently unemployed, underemployed, and discouraged workers.

Who do these writers think they are kidding? Clinton's best year was 328K a month - no one has bested that. And that was only one year, even with the growth of the Internet and the tremendous hiring for Y2K.

Or maybe Dollar General's expansion is bigger than the 500-600 stores they said they were going to put in?

And this crap about structural employment - that means there are jobs but people unmatched. The local state office says they have 600 jobs, 35,000 applicants. Nothing structural about that - just not enough demand to support jobs for all of them.

The government needs to step in with as much vigor as they have supported the financial sector and investment banks for the past 30+ years in what culminated in the wreckage of their Ponzi scheme and the lives of tens of millions of people.

[iamjoy]

15. So, Let's See

In 2012, the Republicans will take back the White House and the Senate. Things will turn around by 2016, just in time for the Republicans to get re-elected.

So, the Republicans helped cause this financial mess (weak Democrats helped too). President Obama tried to fix it, but not well enough. As a result, Republicans took back the House in 2010, and will take over the rest of the legislative plus the executive branch in 2012. Because of the groundwork Obama has done, things will turn around by 2016, helping ensure further Republican victory.

Justices Ginsburg and Breyer will probably resign after 2012, meaning the Republicans will control all three branches of government and strengthen corporate personhood.

We are so humped.

talk me down, anyone?

[unkachuck]

16. hey asshole system, where are the fuckin' jobs?

"...the worst long-term unemployment situation in the United States since the Great Depression."

....the shitty private sector can't or won't create jobs yet we're forbidden from having our government create jobs so we can survive....

"Unemployment will fall to a more "natural rate" only in 2016,..."

....okay, all you jagoff private sector economists, how will people survive in the meantime? You can't expect unemployed people to remain idly by in a broken system and starve to death....

....first they take away your god-given right to live a natural existence, then they take away your ability to survive within their shitty economic system....I hate capitalism.

[Knight Hawk]

19. What???????????

Where have you been? "you can't expect unemployed people to remaim idly..............." They WANT you to starve to death.These people do not have hearts .They have pumping gizzards.They do not spend one second a YEAR worrying about your situation.

[StarsInHerHair]

20. yes and when desperate people steal food. those in power will just jail them

madmen are in charge, the insane are running the asylum...

[midnight]

17. What a cop out.. All these brilliant harvard, and yale grads can't

problem solve.... They should just get out of the way and let those that really know what to do step in.... First of all stop this war..... Second of all pay every women and man a salary to get money into this economy..... Spread it around like manure....

[Broderick]

21. But

Not to everyone we learn. Just those poor bankers, investment firm employees, and the wall street folks. We will rue the day when they can't keep a boat on each coast, or have their fabulous homes peppered here and there. I feel so bad for them, as does the government, that they are getting rewarded day in and day out with extravagant paychecks and bonuses on the backs of taxpayers. Meanwhile the small business guy struggles to keep his employees. Just look at the litany of big business and organizations that get waivers on the new Healthcare bill. Having a lobbyist on the rolodex is key to making sure the little people foot the bills. sigh.

[Safetykitten]

22. The CBO obviously did not get the PowerPoint presentation.

So there you have it. Somewhat optimistic I would say as reports go, I think a possiblity of 9% is very real in 2012.

What will it be? Hmmmmm....I sense a "Morning in America" moment from the republicans. We all know how that went the last time around.

[Ichingcarpenter]

23. This is a monetary paradigm system that will stay in power

Until it kills more and more people or until people WAKE UP.

The system is rigged and the world knows it.

The Jobs aren't coming back because...... the stock market is good
and more people are in debt..... Bankers love that shit.

[jpak]

24. Not to worry - Boner and the Teabaggers will save us

yup

[JVS]

25. Maybe someone ought to get off their ass and do something about jobs.

[Ichingcarpenter]

26. What and spoil DEBT for the banking system?

LIsten, the system was set up a long time ago to support unemployment but now
that system and the ones at the top are eating themselves after consuming us.