http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2011/09/02/how-sprint-wins-big-if-attt-mobile-merger-blocked/Yesterday I posed a simple question: Why did Sprint Nextel shares go up when the Justice Dept. sued to block the merger of AT&T and T-Mobile? In its lengthy filing with the Federal Communications Commission opposing the merger, Sprint said the combination would raise prices for consumers, presumably a good thing for a smaller competitor who could follow suit with impunity.
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- Despite all the chatter about Sprint buying T-Mobile at a bargain price, Lee says that can’t happen, specifically because of the claims Sprint makes in its filing with the FCC. If industry concentration is the problem, then a Sprint/T-Mobile merger would raise the dreaded Herfindahl-Hirschman Index by 500 points, only slightly less than the 700 it would be raised if AT&T and T-Mobile combined. “The fact is that Sprint, through its advocacy, has disqualified itself from acquiring T-Mobile,” Lee writes. “So Sprint is not seeking to disqualify AT&T from acquiring T-Mobile, so that it may subsequently acquire T-Mobile for a lower price.”
- In its filing Sprint ridicules AT&T’s claims that it needs T-Mobile’s radio spectrum to expand its high-capacity4G data service. But what if AT&T is telling the truth? In that case AT&T would be forced to impose “congestion pricing” in its most crowded markets, discouraging customers from heavy data use, and opening a competitive opportunity for Sprint. The smaller carrier, Lee says, in its affiliation with Clearwire holds the most unused spectrum of all. Sprint has 93% of the SMR spectrum and 27% of PCS spectrum, to AT&T’s 26%, plus access to a huge swath of spectrum through Clearwire (details on pages 168-169 here.)
http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2011/db0630/FCC-11-103A1.pdfsnip
- If AT&T is blocked from buying T-Mobile, the Deutsche Telecom unit will wither as its parent has made it clear it would prefer to invest in European mobile telecommunications instead of T-Mobile. The result is a three-carrier oligopoly with attractive competitive characteristics for Sprint, Lee says.
If T-Mobile decides to go it alone, “their only realistic alternative for offering “national” 4G services is through . . . Sprint’s majority-owned wholesale carrier, Clearwire. This is a brilliant gambit.”
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