Scientists face jail over Italian earthquake

[ChandlerJr]

Source: ABC.AU

Six scientists are set to go on trial in Italy charged with failing to predict the L'Aquila earthquake that killed 309 people in 2009.

The scientists, and one official, are charged with manslaughter.

The seven men are accused of failing to predict the earthquake and of not properly communicating the risks to the community.

The case has sent shockwaves across the world, with 5,000 scientists signing a petition condemning the action.

Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-20/court-case-over-italian-earthquake/2907778

---

If you're going to make predictions based on settled science looks like you better damn well be right.

[Boojatta]

1. Settled science isn't always correct.

There have been revolutions in the history of science, and there might be more in future. What feels like solid ground of known science can one day be revealed as temporary and approximate. Under our feet there can be waves that feel like liquid, as received scientific opinion adjusts and settles into a new (and perhaps also temporary) configuration.

[RegieRocker]

17. Blasphemous

[napoleon_in_rags]

2. Ooh, so the incentive is to shut your mouth and say "I don't know"

rather than give your best estimate? Italian politics strikes again.

Remember, Italian scientists in positions of power, give them nothing, just say "Estupido! Estupido!" That's the only way you will be safe.

[Boojatta]

3. This story reminds me that after a young Bobby Fischer beat a Soviet player six to zero ...

the Soviet player lost privileges. However, the privileges were reinstated when it became clear that Fischer was simply very good, and that there was no reason to doubt that the Soviet player had performed with the same level of skill, effort, and integrity that had prompted the Soviet authorities to give him privileges in the first place.

[aggiesal]

4. Are they ...

drinking too much of their own Vino or what?

[Fire Walk With Me]

5. Remember the Simpsons episode where Bart discovers a comet

which will impact upon Springfield? I love the ending (spoilers) where Moe leads the townfolk, replete with torches and pitchforks, saying, "Let's burn down the observatory so this can never happen again."

[jakeXT]

6. Just start praying to Neptune again

Neptune was the god of earthquakes. He was called the Earth-shaker.
http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/jo/roman/neptune.htm

[StarsInHerHair]

28. they already do, Neptune is the God of Pisces, is the Fish

[closeupready]

7. Would be just plain goofy if it didn't involve real people.

Honestly, you just can't make up so much of what goes on today. Bunch of buffoons.

[reggie the dog]

8. is the pope behind this?

[DeSwiss]

9. Modern-day witch trial.

Actually I think the politicians are just looking for someone to blame here. I mean because it was they who approved the construction of the non-earthquake proof buildings, right? And remember, this is the same country that elected Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi to high office. So we know good judgment isn't their long suit.

"Hey Italy! When science learns EVERYTHING THERE IS TO KNOW, then it'll be an exact science. Okay?"


- I guess science will just have to take out malpractice insurance.....

K&R







"It worked before......."

[1monster]

10. It's traditional... They had a down on Galileo too. Ask Rick Perry. He'll tell you.

[bulloney]

11. I wonder if they do the same to the religious fanatics who predict dates the world ends.

[Chemisse]

29. Good point. I bet many people suffered financial and emotional upsets

when the world remained in existence!

[Devil_Fish]

33. Yes actually they did. The Jehovah's Witnesses tell people to load up their credit cards.

The world is going to end before you get the first bill. Don't have cash? No problem, We have now installed credit card machines in all of our assembly halls. Don't bother going to college, the end is coming, and you will never fulfill a careerer. Just become a janitor.

[No Elephants]

47. They may well have,

if they gave away their assets or took other measures based on the world's coming to an end.

In the year 999, many were sure the world would end with the end of the year. (Don't laugh until you remember Henny Penny going on about Y2K a full millenium and many college degrees later. This was the Y1K version of Y2K.)

Anyway, after giving away their real estate and personal property, they traveled to the Vatican to await there the return of Christ and the rapture. The world went on, but they no longer owned property.

If they had known how very inaccurate the Gregorian clendar was then (as compared with the movements of the sun, moon and planets), they may have died with their net worth intact.

[Devil_Fish]

32. You mean like the Jehovah's Witnesses?? NT

[RZM]

12. 'Sent shockwaves across the world'

Couldn't help themselves, I see . . . :)

[RKP5637]

13. Well, that should make a lot of people interested in being geologists working

in seismic prediction. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

So I say F it. Let the Italian masses figure out their own predictions without scientists then.

And let's apply the same rule to failed politicians!!!
:evilfrown: :evilgrin: :mad:

[RegieRocker]

14. Good! They deserve it.

It's always better to say take precautions than to say nothing to worry about. The lies in science continue to grow and people are getting tired of it. Ego and emotionally controlled unable to simply say " I or we don't know".

[Ohio Joe]

21. "The lies in science continue to grow"

I'm sorry but... What "lies" in science?

[Kelvin Mace]

22. We are being sarcastic

I hope.

[snooper2]

40. I read that post three times and I don't think it's sarcasm...

Usually you can detect even just a hint of snark, but not here...

[Codeine]

31. You cannot be serious.

You just can't. At all.

[No Elephants]

49. Who gets jailed for ego?

[fasttense]

15. I think they should charge their economists with failure to predict the 2nd Great Depression.

There were no Italian economist predicting this massive economic meltdown. What good are economist anyway if they can't predict when the economy will self destruct?

If Milton Friedman were Italian he would be on trail now for his very stupid ideas about "free" markets. So Milton, how did your little theory turn out? Not so Good.

[fasttense]

16. Deleted double post

[Blandocyte]

18. Arrest the priests

who didn't successfully pray for the intercession of saints to keep the country free of quakes!

[vets74]

19. Scientists FACE TRIAL, not face jail.

Exciting and false. Diction worthy of a drunken Murdoch.

[ck4829]

20. When do we get to sue the politicians and the media for telling us that tax cuts would create jobs?

If scientists can get in trouble for not predicting an earthquake, then surely they can get in trouble for saying something for ten years, watching our infrastructure and social programs crumble, and then it doesn't have the desired effect, right?

[Odin2005]

23. And the Europeans DARE laugh at us for being scientifically ignorant?

[Nihil]

38. See .24

> If you are going to speak as a scientist using the authority of science to
> tell others what to do, you have a responsibility to ensure that the
> information you provide is as correct as possible. In this case, the
> scientists gave information that wasn't merely wrong, but was inaccurate
> even by scientific standards. That inaccurate information killed a lot of people.

There is a world of difference between these scientists and your Texas school
board fiascos ...

[Xithras]

24. Once you get past the headline, I can actually see why they are charging them.

The researchers and engineers made an extremely poor decision. The town had suffered a series of earthquakes. The townspeople were nervous. There had been discussions about evacuating the ancient, but unstable, stone buildings as a precaution.

The CORRECT answer for a scientist and engineer, when asked whether the town should be evacuated would have been: "We don't know. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. There is a danger, and statistically that danger is higher right now because of the recent earthquakes, but past events can't predict future earthquakes. There could be another tomorrow, or we might not have another for 100 years."

Instead, this was their answer: "There is no danger." He then went on to tell them to "relax and enjoy a glass of wine".

Apparently, this area gets a lot of earthquakes in swarms. The centuries-old tradition in the area is that, when a swarm starts, you leave the area, go camping, or stay in a country home. The researchers used their perceived authority to tell the townspeople what it wasn't necessary for them to evacuate the town, stating flat out that they were not in danger, This caused them to abandon their normal behavioral patterns. Had the scientists not intervened, the town would have been largely empty when the major quake hit several days later. Because they intervened, passed on SCIENTIFICALLY INCORRECT information, and they town wasn't emptied, 309 people died a few days later when the major quake struck.

If you are going to speak as a scientist using the authority of science to tell others what to do, you have a responsibility to ensure that the information you provide is as correct as possible. In this case, the scientists gave information that wasn't merely wrong, but was inaccurate even by scientific standards. That inaccurate information killed a lot of people.

[dipsydoodle]

25. Well put

It's doubtful the Italians would've bought the charges without foundation

[Xithras]

26. The headline is a bit inflammatory, and gives the story a witch burning feel.

But when you actually read the whole thing and do a bit of fact checking, the story changes a bit. The scientists are being prosecuted because their conduct and statements were unprofessional, scientifically inaccurate, and led directly to the deaths of more than 300 people.

[Blue_Tires]

41. Yeah, in here the proper headline would be:

"Scientific experts sued for negligence after failure to recommend evacuation..."

[No Elephants]

48. Yes, you have a responsiblity, but putting scientists in jail for making an incorrect prediction

is not the solution. It's a good way to set back Italian scientists for a century or two. Just as that kind of thing did in Galileo's time.

We all know events like volcanic eruptions and earthquakes are not predictable with exactitude or certainty. And we also all know that scientists are not infallible.

[No Elephants]

50. "They also flat out said that it was not possible to guarantee anything."

[dimbear]

27. Astonishihg case. The criminal side of it may be smoke for the civil side.

There are enormous suits for civil damages hanging on this, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the criminal stuff all go away after a 'satisfactory to the victims' civil settlement.

[Old Troop]

30. Can I sue the meteorologists if they predict sunny weather and

my picnic is rained out?

[happyslug]

37. Yes, if he states that you should have your picnic for they would be no rain

Xithras stated in his post above, the problem was NOT that the researchers did NOT foresee the Earthquake, they told the people of the town affect that they would be NO earthquake. The Scientists are being sued for the tradition in that part of Italy was to vacate the town after a minor earthquake wait a month or so then move back. One earthquake in that part of Italy traditionally lead to other earthquakes right afterward.

The problem here is the Scientists when asked about subsequent earthquakes did NOT say such earthquakes were possible, but clearly stated such subsequent earthquakes would NOT occur. Based on that reassurance people stayed in the town, rather then leave town for about a month. This lead to over 300 deaths in that town when the killer earthquake occurred. If the people had done what they had always done, they would have been less then 80 people in the town, so the death rate would have been much lower.

The Scientists are up on charges for making a promise that turned out to be wrong. It was that promise of no earthquakes that lead to the charges, if the Scientists had just said, we don't know, then they would be no promise and no charges.

The real issue is why did these scientists make such a promise? In the past I have read of such "promises" in Italy given to people do to pressure from local businesses who did NOT want to lose their work force for a month or two. These false promises have lead to deaths in an earthquake (and other natural disasters) rich place like Italy.

The issue is NOT the research or the Science, but the Promise. People relied on that promise and died do to that promise. Had no promise been made, people would have moved out of town for a month or two, and many of the people killed would still be alive today. That is why the scientists up on charges, they made a promise NOT based on science and do to that promise people died.

The same with your weatherman, if he PROMISE it would be a Sunny day and you counted on that promise, you can sue him for any damage you incurred do to relying on his promise. If he just said, I believe the weather will be sunny, no promise is made, and this no contract and thus no liability. Thus when they is a chance of Rain, the weatherman always mention it, even if it is only a 1$ chance.

As I said it was the PROMISE that was the problem, a promise that turned out to be wrong and lead to deaths.

[mainegreen]

39. All the article I've read said nothing about them making any promises.

They concluded (as per BBC and other sources) basically that there was no reason to assume that the precursor tremors meant a large earthquake was coming. They also flat out said that it was not possible to guarantee anything.

It's a tragedy but these people didn't cause the earthquake, nor did they have access to an exact science that allowed them to make specific predictions, nor did they claim access to an exact science.

This is a witch hunt that is more fitting for a two bit banana republic.

[Xithras]

43. You have to put it in context.

Earthquakes in that area come in swarms, and the people were ready to evacuate the town as they had done for centuries when earthquake swarms hit. As they're preparing to leave, local officials and scientists held a press conference and told the people:

"There is no danger." (exact quote)
"Instead of being concerned, go home and have a glass of wine." (paraphrased)
"The intensity of the tremors is scaling down in force." (exact quote)

Two of those statements have no basis in science. The third, which technically correct, was dishonest without the caveat stating that past earthquake intensity has NO influence on future earthquake strength.

The combined impact of their statements convinced people to stay. If they hadn't made them, more of the town would have evacuated and the death toll would have been lower.

With authority comes responsibility. They spoke as authorities and passed on incorrect information that killed people. They bear responsibility for that.

[goforit]

34. MIDDLE AGES to the MAX!!! OMG!!! Absurd!!!!

OMFG!!!
This is outrageous and absolutely ignorant!!!!

[Rex]

35. If only govts would put corporations on trial when they fail to predict

a plunge in stock prices and cause a worldwide economic crisis.

Oh well, some animals are always above the law.

[Eddie Haskell]

36. No one can predict an earthquake.

Is this an Au Onion.

[No Elephants]

42. Not long after Galileo was finally exonerated, too.

[pinniped]

44. Charge and jail the volcanologists, too.

They have failed to render Mt. Vesuvius extinct, resulting in a cataclysmic explosion in 79 AD. Poor Pliny the Elder. He didn't have to die. The volcanologists researching Mt. Etna also have some splaining to do.

[pinniped]

45. This is totally freaking stupid.

failing to predict the earthquake and of not properly communicating the risks to the community.

There are thousands of people that live directly beneath the slopes of Mt. Vesuvius' eventual lava flow. They are well aware of the risks. You live near a volcano, you deal with earthquakes.

[pinniped]

46. Where is the chief inquisitor?

I thought they didn't believe in science?