Casey continues to lead

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: Public Policy Polling

It looks like Bob Casey's bid for reelection will be more competitive than his blow out victory over Rick Santorum was to get elected in 2006...but he's still in pretty good shape.

40% of Pennsylvania voters approve of the job Casey is doing to 34% who disapprove. Those numbers are actually better than they might appear to be on the surface though. 23% of Republicans approve of the job Casey's doing, an unusual level of crossover support in this highly polarized political climate. And he's on positive ground with independents at 40/36.

What holds Casey's numbers back is that the Democratic base is not very enthused about him- he has only a 55% approval rating with his own party to 23% who disapprove of him. But even though a good number of Democrats don't necessary like him, 77-80% of them still say they'll vote for him against any of his potential Republican challengers. Casey and Florida's Bill Nelson are in a similar boat- their topline approval numbers make them appear to be more vulnerable than they really are because their numbers get dragged down by their party base not being enthralled with them, even though it will vote for them in the end.

Casey leads all of his potential GOP opponents by double digits, but he doesn't match his 17 point margin of victory against Rick Santorum from 2006 against any of them. The Republican candidate who comes closest is Sam Rohrer, who we also found leading on our primary poll last week. Casey has a 47-36 advantage over him. Casey's up 14 on Steve Welch at 47-33, 15 on Tim Burns at 49-34, and 16 on Tom Smith at 48-32. The key statistic in all of those match ups is that Casey gets 14-17% of the Republican vote. To put that in perspective, last year we found Joe Sestak getting only 8% of the GOP vote on our final poll before the election.

Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/casey-continues-to-lead.html

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

1. I understand that Casey is a bit right of center on a number of issues, but he has been a

reliable Democrat on most issues. I met him in Harrisburg with Teddy Kennedy :( stomped for Obama during the primaries. He was a very pleasant fellow. Considering how middle of the road the state is, I think he has done a superb job, not too conservative. Don't understand why he's not liked by PA Dems.

[Ken Burch]

3. It might be residual resentment from the DSCC imposing Casey as the candidate against Santorum

while insisting, over and over again, that we could only beat Santorum if our nominee was as antiwoman(or antichoice, which is the same thing)as ol' Frothy Mix himself.

Casey will probably win(and I suppose I'd vote for him in the fall if I lived there)but you can't blame people for being a little bitter about the heavyhandness the DSCC used in their "it HAS to be Casey as the nominee" arguments.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

5. That's why I posed the question. I'm not familiar with his entire platform, but I obviously

knew his stance on reproductive rights, given the fact that Casey v. Planned Parenthood bears his name (thought it was his father).

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. Abortion

[Ken Burch]

6. Although, weirdly enough, he's a big death penalty supporter

so we can't really call the guy "pro-life". He's just antiwoman.

[No Elephants]

7. A better question might be why 23% of PA Republicans like him.

[Dawson Leery]

2. He is better than any Teabag/teaklan theocrat Republican.

[No Elephants]

8. I am willing to be believe that, but, in which specific ways has he been better, in your opinion?

[No Elephants]

9. Until the Republicans have an actual nominee, I would not pay a lot of attention to polls, but,

obviously, I hope a Democrat wins over a Republican.