Virginia: Bush 47% Kerry 45% (new Rasmussen poll)

[NewJerseyDem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20Jun%204.htm

June 4, 2004--In Virginia, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds President George W. Bush with 47% of the vote and Senator John F. Kerry with 45%.

Compared to the election results from four years ago, this reflects a much weaker showing for the President. In Election 2000, Bush won Virginia by nine percentage points, beating Al Gore 53% to 44%.

Bush is also running a bit weaker than four years ago in Virginia's southern neighbor, North Carolina. However, to the north in Pennsylvania, the President is running ahead of his pace from four years ago.

Virginia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are unusual this year. In most other states, Rasmussen Reports poll results for 2004 do reflect the actual outcome from four years ago. Nationally, our daily Tracking Poll also shows that Election 2004 is in about the same place that Election 2000 ended--a dead heat.

[WI_DEM]

1. Virginia and NC are encouraging but PA

is a bit of a downer.

[lancdem]

8. Don't worry

Kerry will win PA.

[Beetwasher]

2. VA Will Be In Play

Mark my words...This poll is good news!

[DancingBear]

4. Definitely in play - I live in northern VA

I get more "thumbs up" for the bumper stickers on the cars then I ever did before, and I see Kerry bumper stickers a lot, also.

Kerry wouldn't campaign here if his camp wasn't seeing the same signs of life as I (and thousands of others) are seeing.

[renegade000]

5. yup northern virginia is solid blue territory

i'll be voluteering for kerry here.

[Arlington]

7. I'll tell you what

He has No. Va.,

And Navy vets play really well down around Va. Beach/Newport/Hampton Roads -- that's why his campaign camp has not written it off...

And Mark Warner -- a Dem -- was pretty successful at working kitchen table issues all across the state.

And Robb was a Dem. Viet vet, became both governor and senator, and would have kept his seat if he hadn't shot himself in the ass and both feet.

Kerry may have a chance.

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

16. Saw a Kerry sticker today while I was driving around Richmond today.

[Don_G]

3. That Fills In One Blank

http://www.geocities.com/samboni1342/state_polls.htm

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. this is surprising & welcome news.........

especially here in north carolina. if i'm not mistaken, erskine bowles(D) is holding a pretty good lead over richard burr(R)as well.

[struggle4progress]

10. Bowles is doing fine in NC right now

Pelosi pulls bandwagon for recapturing Congress

<snip>
To the dismay of the Democrats, some of the toughest battles of the fall campaign in the Senate and the House will be fought in the South, where Republican strength has been growing for decades. Five retirements there mean that Democrats have to defend Senate seats in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Louisiana and Florida, while a controversial redistricting plan in Texas, pushed through by House Majority Leader Rep. Tom DeLay, could give the GOP as many as eight new congressional seats in the state.

Democrats, however, are confident they've pulled together the right candidates to hold those Senate seats and they have the early polls to prove it. In North Carolina, for example, Erskine Bowles is up 10 percentage points over his Republican opponent, while in South Carolina, Inez Tenenbaum holds solid leads over all three top candidates in the GOP primary.

"We're arguably ahead in four of the five Southern states,'' Georgia excepted, said Cara Morris, a spokeswoman for the Democratic National Senate Committee. "If you look at the last three months, there have been consistent developments in our favor.''
<snip>

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/06/03/MNGH06VS0C1.DTL

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. thanks s4p....

i'm keeping my fingers (& toes) crossed.

[struggle4progress]

13. Me too!

[loudsue]

9. I just posted a new thread -- PA is going Kerry.....check it out.

I don't think bush will take Virginia after this summer is over. He's going down.

:kick::kick::kick:

[fizzana]

11. The best part of this is that Bush has to spend time and money

in states he previously thought were a lock.

[PopSixSquish]

14. That's Essentially a Tie!!!

with 5% undecided. Come Cavs and Hokies, let's turn this state blue!!!!!!

[Zynx]

15. I've said it before, Virginia can be had.

Don't base your assumptions on past results. Until 1992, Vermont was nearly a safe Republican state only voting Democrat once in 1964. I believe Virginia is swinging our way in a big manner.

[mot78]

17. Don't foget CA, IL, NJ, and CT

All of them voted solidly Repug from either 1964 or 1968 until 1992. Interestingly, many of those votes were garnered by running a DLC Democrat, who could carry states where people perceived Democrats as soft on crime and big spenders.

[billbuckhead]

18. I never thought about all those NAVY people in Virginia

Who are those NAVY vets going to vote for: a highly decorated NAVY officer or a Air National guard pilot from the TeXXXas Champagne squadron of the Air National Guard who's service was dubious at best and probably criminal? Doesn't sound like much of a bar fight to me.

[Zynx]

19. All we have to do is reduce his margin among the military and vets.

If we just reduce it by several points, it will tip many states a lot closer.

[underpants]

22. 2 points!?!?! Once agian I will say Route 58 Route 58 Route 58

THAT is how Warner won the Governorship. It will take three days. No one ever paid the SW (south of Roanoke-which is Dem- and past towards WV/Tenn) and Warner won because of that area AND moderate Virginians (a weak Repub candidate didn't hurt either).

Three days on Route 58 with a bluegrass band (photo op) will not only take Va. but play REALLY well in the rural south.

[never_get_over_it]

20. If Kerry takes VA

It will be a landslide. I once went to a fundraiser for Chuck Robb and met his wife who proudly proclaimed that the only Dem presidential candidate to take VA was her Dad Lyndon Johnson. I have been in Northern VA for 23 years and have longed for the day that a Dem Presidential candidate would take VA - ironically I will be moving to Florida before the election....maybe I'll vote absentee in VA - I'm much more confident about my vote being counted here than in FL!!!! THANKS for this very good news.

[underpants]

23. Even without Fla. in 2000 Gore could have "won" with Va.

I know I know it was a 9 point difference but no one campaigned here. I'm just pointing out the math of the Va. 12 electoral votes.

[never_get_over_it]

24. No one campaigned here in 2000

because a Dem hadn't taken VA since'64 - although I wish they had. I remember the first Clinton race I was working the campaign and it seemed like we might be able to win...I was managing a GOTV phone bank and practically whipped the callers to make more calls that if we worked really hard Clinton could take the state - he didn't and I don't remember the exact numbers but it wasn't that close. I will be truly surprised if Kerry can pull out VA but I think they are going to campaign here and I'm glad for that. The gun issue is really big here (out of Nortnern VA that is), but there are SO MANY other issues this time around that I think it might not be as big a deal this time around - so maybe maybe - it would be SO SWEET to take VA. By the way VA has 13 electoral votes....

[JI7]

21. Rasmussen does not use very good polling methods

he uses machines which are not very reliable.

but i still think kerry needs to compete in virginia.